Thurs., Sept. 24, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Sept. 24…regular $4.48…diesel $6.51 [record]
Diesel is down a penny, the first decline in weeks.
It was a crazy day in the futures markets. WTI hit $96 late morning, Brent $108, with gasoline and heating oil futures spiking higher, bond yields surging.
And then WTI suddenly fell below $94, Brent under $105, gas and heating oil backing off as well, on a Reuters report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York were exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, i.e., the failed Memorandum of Understanding, Part II.
But the talks face a big obstacle as neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage, according to comments to Reuters by two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomatic sources, but behind Iran’s stance is a recognition of the economic costs of prolonged confrontation.
A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the U.S. lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.
But a senior European official said the Iranians “have a very long list of demands.”
Former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross said he saw only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote, but that both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before than after the midterms.
“The blockade is what’s really squeezing the Iranians. It’s strangling them,” Ross said.
As we all know, President Trump is desperate for a deal that would get prices at the pump down by a sizable margin ahead of November.
On the topic of the diesel price and reports the administration is considering an export ban on same, the White House denied the reports and Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the Wall Street Journal that the administration would not halt all diesel exports and would instead take a voluntary approach to bringing prices down. Wright was quoted by Reuters yesterday as criticizing a ban, saying it “definitely doesn’t work.”
But some Republicans running in tight races want a ban to get the price down quickly.
Economists warn a diesel export ban could quickly overwhelm domestic storage and force refiners to cut production of other fuels like gasoline.
Well, by late in the day, oil was back up again, while gas and heating oil futures were all over the place.
—
On the Xi-Trump summit, the meetings at the White House were brief and little of substance will emerge from it. It’s all about the optics for Trump, though there was still no ‘pool reporting.’
Among the questions prior to the gathering were some of the following.
Will Trump, Xi agree to an AI hotline? Will there be progress on a broader trade deal? Will Trump call out China’s support for Iran? Will Trump back down on arming Taiwan? Will China commit to releasing political prisoners?
On this last question, the most high-profile prisoner is Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong pro-democracy leader who is serving a long prison sentence for violations of the region’s national security law. He is old and in poor health.
But Xi has shown resistance to letting these types of prisoners go.
Essentially, if Trump can’t even get Xi to release Lai, I’m like, don’t waste my freakin’ time on the other stuff.
Having said that, ahead of the meeting, the two sides agreed to an extension of their trade truce into January from the deadline of Nov. 10.
And we’ll wait to see what leaks, or what Trump wants to divulge, on the issue of the $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that has been approved by Congress, but Trump is sitting on it, viewing it as leverage.
But we already heard from the Chinese side that Xi urged the U.S. to “oppose” Taiwan independence, marking his most explicit call for Trump to change his stance on the self-ruled island.
According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Xi asked the U.S. to “adhere to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence and handle the Taiwan issue with prudence.”
This was clearly Xi’s top red line issue.
—
Dow Jones -161…-0.3% [51349]
S&P 500 -1…-0.02% [7704]
Nasdaq +3…+0.01% [26939]
Oil (WTI) $95.05…Brent $107.25
Gold $4275
Silver $63.80
Bitcoin: $84,377 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.91%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.19%*
*The U.S. 30-year bond hit its highest level, 5.47%, since 2004.
Japanese 10-yr. 3.06%…30-year high…
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Brian Trumbore
