Wed., Oct. 14, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Oct. 14…regular $4.33…diesel $6.29
Diesel rose 2 cents from yesterday for the first time in quite a while, after peaking at $6.52 on Sept. 23. Heating oil (diesel) futures remained above $4.90 so the chances of diesel getting solidly below $6.00 before the midterm elections are virtually nil, as I see it. Not that $5.80 or so would be great, seeing as that would still be a whopping $2.00 above the Feb. 27 level.
Russia and Ukraine continue targeting each other’s energy interests, despite President Trump’s ridiculous claim there was an “energy ceasefire” over the weekend.
Crude oil was solidly over $95 (Brent over $106) mid-afternoon; as investors weighed improving export flows against renewed attacks across the Middle east.
The Iran-backed Houthis fired more missiles and drones at several Saudi locations, including the Saudi Aramco office complex in the east of the kingdom, and Iranian attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz continue.
This morning, the big news on Wall Street concerned the September reading on consumer prices, with the CPI coming in hotter than forecast, on both headline and core.
The headline numbers were 0.6% and 3.7% year-over-year, which the Democrats will be trumpeting loudly, while ex-food and energy, the numbers were 0.3% and 2.6%, both a tick higher than expected. The 0.3% spooked the bond market bigly, at least early on.
Prior to the CPI data being released, the 2-year Treasury was trading at about 4.77% and the 10-year 5.18%, but ten minutes after the release, the yields were 4.91% and 5.30%! [They then backed way off from those levels the rest of the day, as you see below.]
Yes, for some, an October rate hike was back on the table at the upcoming Oct. 27-28 Open Market Committee meeting.
I have been adamant that the Fed will not hike rates a week before the midterms and then will in December. I think it’s political suicide for Chair Kevin Warsh to do otherwise, and a majority of his fellow governors, and Wall Street, will (should) understand.
But the headline number of 3.7% compared with a year ago, is not only up from 3.4% in August, but it is far higher than the latest average hourly wage gain of 3.0%. As in Democrats, if they’re smart, will be hammering home this comparison as well.
And while on the campaign trail, Republicans, and the president, keep talking of inflation in the Biden era being higher. Yes, the CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, months after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when all energy costs were spiking. But a year later, June 2023, the CPI was down to 3.0%, and it was 3.0% in January 2025, when President Trump took office for a second term.
These are just plain, simple facts, people. You know, nothing drives me up a wall more than not getting the numbers right.
Tuesday night I watched the president’s rally in Wasilla, Alaska, and he literally said, “Biden had inflation of 19%…19%!”
I hate lies like this. [Trump also said, “the ice caps are getting bigger than they ever were.” Gimme an f’n break.]
But on the inflation data and some specifics, as noted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the bulk of the increase on headline inflation was indeed energy, with gasoline rising 9.1% in September, representing half of the monthly all items increase. [Gasoline is up 34.2% from a year ago.]
But shelter is up 3.2% year-over-year, apparel 3.4%.
Airline fares are up 22.4% from a year ago, but one good item is motor vehicle insurance, down 5%, when it had been skyrocketing.
And ‘food’, including ‘food at home’, has stabilized, up 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. But, geezuz, I don’t see that myself at the grocery store.
And Trump trumpets the fact egg prices are down, 20.6%, and that is good. Yours truly is eating a lot more of them these days. [A fried egg over a slice of toast being my preferred lunch…because it is filling, and cheap!]
—
The Dodgers, down 2-0 to the Brewers, are facing Milwaukee at Chavez Ravine tonight, and Shohei Ohtani, despite being in a deep slump, a career-worst 24 games without a home run, will be in the lineup.
Ohtani is killing the Dodgers, and he’s clearly injured, but as I write, he won’t take himself out and L.A. appears to be ready to put him back in the lineup. It makes for an interesting storyline. How will Ohtani do? The Dodgers must win Game 3.
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Dow Jones -48…-0.1% [51621]
S&P 500 -86…-1.1% [7718]
Nasdaq -511…-1.9% [26692]
Oil (WTI) $95.05…Brent $106.00
Gold $4100
Silver $55.55
Bitcoin: $81,773 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.81%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.19%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.99%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
