Mon., Oct. 19, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Oct. 19…regular $4.29…diesel $6.31
Crude oil (WTI) held above $102 (Brent $109), close to a four-week high after surging 10% last week, as renewed fighting across the Middle East heightened concerns over supply disruptions. Reports of a Saudi helicopter crash near the Yemen border, Houthi attacks on the key export hub of Yanbu and two tankers being struck in the Persian Gulf have cast doubt on the durability of the recovery in regional oil flows.
Adding to regional tensions, Egypt said it was ready to support Saudi Arabia against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf shipments had recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, although refined-product exports (i.e., diesel) remained constrained.
Crude flows through the Gulf fell to around 8.5 million barrels per day last week from more than 20 million barrels per day the previous week, according to Kpler.
Meanwhile, President Trump said Washington agreed to a diesel export deal with Russia and waived tariffs and sanctions on its energy shipments to support peace talks over Ukraine. However, U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation to block the purchases.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would assess the economic impact of the waivers over the next 60 days.
But all this talk of Russian diesel exports belies what Russia has talked about for months. It had banned the export of diesel through at least October, owing to Ukraine’s strikes on its oil refineries. Russia has to have enough diesel for both the locals and the economy, as well as the war machine.
Separately, EIA data showed that U.S. distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending October 9, leaving stocks 12% below their five-year average and highlighting persistent supply tightness.
And in a further sign of regional tensions and the impact on business among the Gulf nations, Saudi Arabia decided to postpone its flagship investor conference, highlighting how missile attacks on the kingdom’s airports and capital city by the Houthis are threatening its economic ambitions.
Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, a marquee showcase for foreign investment, was to gather the global financial elite in Riyadh beginning Oct. 26. But organizers decided Monday that the conference wouldn’t be held in person, then later told attendees that it would be postponed until next year.
Billed as “Davos in the Desert,” the annual FII gathering had become a centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 agenda to turn the oil exporter into an international hub for business and tourism.
Wall Street executives were already reconsidering whether to travel to the conference, weighing security concerns against the risk of offending their wealthy hosts.
The kingdom’s travel and tourism industries had been growing above target and faster than the global average before the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran and now the conflict with the Houthis. The crown prince had seen success in other areas as well. The non-oil side of the economy had grown to more than half the total, millions of women had joined the workforce and domestic spending on tourism and entertainment was up.
The FII is a symbol of Saudi Arabia’s expanding ties with global finance. Bankers and investors have cultivated relationships with the kingdom to secure capital for artificial-intelligence ventures and private equity, while helping Saudi Arabia raise money for the crown prince’s transformation plans.
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For the record…President Trump on Truth Social, Sunday PM:
“My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table. Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations! Signing that document at this time will do that, and I can sign it later, or any time that I want! Perhaps more importantly, Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing, and I want to keep it that way, and will, unless stupid people get in the way. Lastly, Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelenskyy doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead. I WANT THIS WAR TO END!”
Pathetic. Trump continues to throw Zelensky under the bus in favor of a murderous dictator.
**And just 30 minutes ago, addressing reporters at the White House, Trump made further idiotic comments concerning Zelensky, not blaming Putin for anything. It’s sickening.
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China’s economy grew 4.5% in Q3 2026, accelerating from Q2’s three-year low of 4.3% and beating market expectations of 4.4%. Surging exports are a major reason behind the growth.
U.S. stocks were mixed after last week’s tech wreck in Nasdaq (which had a sporty advance today), and Treasury yields rose as a bit of the safe-haven trade wore off.
The yield on France’s 10-year bond was up a whopping 13 basis points amid the turmoil in that country; the ugly riots, the intractable debt issue, and a huge election next April…the far-left vs. the far-right. Yours truly marched with Marine Le Pen, twice (both times on May Day)…as a reporter, not necessarily a supporter.
Dow Jones -36…-0.1% [51966]
S&P 500 +31…+0.4% [7690]
Nasdaq +290…+1.1% [26430]
Oil (WTI) $103.70…Brent $109.30
Gold $4140
Silver $57.15
Bitcoin: $81,774 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.76%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.14%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.90%
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Brian Trumbore
