Thurs., Oct. 29, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Oct. 29…regular $4.22…diesel $6.33
Gasoline at the pump continues to inch down toward $4.00, nationally, but won’t be at that level come Tuesday’s big midterm elections, as much as Republicans would like to see it, and diesel remains stubbornly at basically record levels.
Crude oil was trading down to about $100 this morning, $113 on Brent, but even though flows through the Strait of Hormuz have grown to near pre-war levels, and alternative routes are being used, oil (which rallied off the morning lows) is staying high because the market is weighing renewed diplomatic efforts against the potential of further U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran after next Tuesday’s vote.
Vice President JD Vance reportedly contacted hard-line Iranian officials, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to diplomacy. President Trump confirmed communication with Iranian authorities, although he described the outreach as focused on medical supplies and acknowledged uncertainty over whether negotiations would succeed.
I noted yesterday that there were also reports indicating U.S. officials were warning regional allies to prepare for possible military operations and of the moves the U.S. military was taking to protect our troops on bases in the region, after seeing with Iran’s early strikes how vulnerable they were.
So, you aren’t going to see a steep decline at the pump until there is a resolution to what remains a crisis.
Europe did announce its plans to release 42 million barrels of oil reserves over the next three months, including a substantial volume of diesel, as part of efforts to increase available supply and moderate energy costs.
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We had key inflation data today…the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) for September, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, and the numbers came in exactly as expected, which isn’t necessarily good.
The PCE was up 0.5%, 3.6% year-over-year, while on core, ex-food and energy, the numbers were 0.3% and 3.1%, the last one the ‘money ball’ for the Fed. Three percent is not 2%, Chair Kevin Warsh’s stated objective that he has vowed multiple times to get to.
We also had an advance look at third-quarter GDP, and it was a bit better than expected, 3.4%, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow having forecasted 3.3%, so another great job by the good folks in Atlanta.
Separately, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down, vacating one of the continent’s top jobs at a time when debt problems and resurgent inflation are looming over the economy.
Lagarde said in a statement that she would resign in February. Her eight-year term was set to expire in October 2027.
In the past, she has talked about taking over as chair of the World Economic Forum.
The former French finance minister has also linked her early departure to a desire to play a role in next year’s French presidential election, though she has insisted she isn’t a candidate herself.
Lagarde’s decision to step down early means French President Emmanuel Macron has a chance to pick her successor before he leaves the Elysee next May.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen* leads in the polls today in the election to replace Macron and it has worried European leaders that she has an anti-EU stance.
*I’m the only kid on my block to march with her, twice, in Paris…as a reporter, I hasten to add. And I had zero problems with her supporters (who at the time were unfairly labeled “jackbooted thugs.”) Heck, I got to within ten feet of her. [Marine’s father, the late Jean-Marie, on the other hand, was a total dirtball.] I have no problem saying I’m fascinated by Marine. Knowing a fair amount of French at the time helped. But I killed those brain cells drinking beer in the last ten years. OK, the beer impact was cumulative…over 50 years.
Stocks fell, owing in large part to the performance of both Alphabet (down 12%) and Caterpillar (down 9%) off poor earnings reports, the former influencing the Nasdaq in particular, the latter being a Dow Jones component.
Bonds rallied with no negative PCE surprise, even if the actual numbers remain high. More strategists also seem to be questioning whether the Fed will actually raise interest rates in December, but as Chair Warsh said yesterday, “The period ahead of us is information rich.” I think the late rally today is overdone.
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Congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers, World Series Champs, taking out Tampa Bay in five games.
Founded in 1970, after one season as the Seattle Pilots, the Brewers captured Milwaukee’s first championship since the Braves took the title in 1957.
A great year for its fans, everyone looking up to the sky after, knowing legendary Milwaukee fan, and broadcaster, Bob Uecker, was looking down on it all, drinking a beer no doubt.
I’ve been to Milwaukee and I love the German/Polish/Slovak roots there. So, I’ll plug my favorite German restaurant in the country…Mader’s…here’s the link…I love looking at the menu and salivating. Wiener Schnitzel and spaetzle is my ultimate last meal, not that I’m looking to be on Death Row anytime soon.
https://madersrestaurant.com/pages/dinner-menu
And when in Milwaukee, you have to go to Usinger’s for the best German-style sausage around. Go ahead, order it for the holidays! As I have from time to time.
Dow Jones -132…-0.3% [52342]
S&P 500 -23…-0.3% [7720]
Nasdaq -365…-1.4% [26184]
Oil (WTI) $102.70…Brent $115.60…sharp late rally for both….
Gold $4020
Silver $52.30
Bitcoin: $80,763 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.64%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.96%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.83%
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
