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Tues., Nov. 10, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., Nov. 10…regular $3.97…diesel $6.15
After I posted yesterday, President Trump went to the White House briefing room to tell reporters that he believes the war in Iran “militarily is effectively over,” suggesting that – at least for now – he’s not prepared to resume the bombardment that has devastated the Islamic Republic and caused reverberations across the global economy.
The president made the surprise appearance after meeting earlier in the day with Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Al Thani.
“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said. “We’re just keeping it in the status quo.”
He added that Iran has been “decapitated” but said he is still looking to make sure there’s a long-term solution to ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program is defanged. At the same time, Trump said he plans to keep up the Naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for now.
“The United States of America is fully locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, and we don’t think there’s going to be any reason to use it,” Trump said.
Over the course of the conflict, Trump has repeatedly said he is on the cusp of ordering U.S. forces to escalate attacks if Iran’s leaders don’t quickly agree to U.S. terms to end the war, only to back down. In earlier cycles, he has also edged away with a last-minute declaration, sometimes at the behest of Gulf allies, that he’s going to give diplomacy more time.
In a social media post shortly before speaking to reporters, Trump once again asserted that Middle East allies – Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others – “would prefer the status quo.”
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We had the consumer price index for October today, and it came in hot. On headline, 0.4%; ex-food and energy 0.3%, both a tick higher than expected.
Due to last year’s government shutdown, the Labor Department could not publish data on how high prices were 12 months ago, so a precise yearly inflation figure couldn’t be calculated.
Prior to the release, influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in prepared comments prior to addressing a group in London, said the Fed ought to raise short-term borrowing costs next month even if government data shows inflation cooled last month, which it didn’t. Waller said the Fed should consider an upsized half-point rate hike if the inflation picture worsens.
“While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25-basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said.
If core consumer prices rise 0.3% or more from September, “a stronger policy move may be needed,” Waller said. “In that case, I believe a 50-basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” Waller is referring to ‘core,’ and 0.3% is what we got.
So at least a 25-basis point hike in the funds rate seems to be baked in the cake for the Dec. 8-9 meeting. And Treasury yields soared in response after the release.
The sour bond market didn’t help stocks, which gave back some of yesterday’s big gains, though the market was cutting the losses at the close.
We have producer prices on Friday.
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Dow Jones -156…-0.3% [52233]
S&P 500 -28…-0.4% [7520]
Nasdaq -187…-0.7% [25065]
Oil (WTI) $86.35…Brent $92.00
Gold $4035
Silver $51.60
Bitcoin: $73,718 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.73%…up 18 bps over Mon. on CPI data….
U.S. 10-yr. 4.99%…hit 5.01%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.68%
Back Wed.
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Brian Trumbore