Wall Street and WWII

Wall Street and WWII

Let”s take a look at some of the key dates for World War II and

how the U.S. stock market reacted.

The Dow Jones finished 1938 at 154.76.

3/16/39 – Hitler marches into Czechoslovakia. If we didn”t take

him seriously before, we had to now. Dow closes that day at

147.54. 3/17: 143.81.

9/1/39 – The Wehrmacht blitzes Poland. Dow closes at 135.25.

9/2: 138.09. After two days off for Labor Day*, the market

rallies 7% to close at 148.12 (9/5). Unbelievable. By 9/12 the

market hits 155.92. Warsaw falls on 9/27, Dow closes at 153.08.

*In these days the stock market was open Mon.-Sat.

11/30/39 – Finland invaded by the Soviet Union. Dow closes at

145.69

Market treads water over the winter as the world knows that

Hitler will eventually make a move in the West. But first.

4/9/40 – Nazis land in Denmark (which immediately surrenders)

and then quickly move into Norway. Dow is at 150.31.

5/9/40, the Wall Street Journal writes that an invasion of Holland

“would awaken fears that England was about to be attacked.”

The next day, 5/10, two things happen. Winston Churchill

becomes prime minister of Great Britain. Hitler swarms into the

Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, on his way to France.

Dow was 148.17 on 5/9. 144.77 on 5/10 (a 2.3% decline).

[Remember that with the time difference between the U.S. and

Europe there was usually plenty of time for the U.S. market to

react the same day].

5/12/40 was a Sunday. On 5/13, upon further reflection, the

markets realized that all of this bloody action in Europe (coupled

with Japan”s Asian adventures) probably wasn”t a good thing.

The Dow falls 5% to close at 137.63. A few days later a Journal

market column reports that “while numerous practical-minded

individuals in Wall Street take the view that more intense

warfare will be stimulating to our industries.they recognize the

dangers inherent in a swift German victory.” By 5/24 the Dow

sits at 113.94.a 23% decline in two weeks (or about 2400 Dow

points at today”s levels).

On 6/3 and 6/4, the evacuation of 338,000 British and French

troops from Dunkirk is under way. The Dow finishes at 115.79

on 6/4. 6/14 the Germans take Paris – Dow sits at 122.27.

The Battle of Britain takes place mostly between 7/31/40 (Dow

126.14) and 10/31/40 (Dow 134.61).

6/22/41 – The Nazis attack the Soviet Union. The market is

closed. On 6/23/41 the Dow closes at 123.97 (up from 122.51 on

6/21).

12/6/41 – Dow sits at 116.60.

12/7/41 – Pearl Harbor, a Sunday.

12/8/41 – Dow closes at 112.52 (off 3.4%).

By 4/28/42 the Dow has fallen to 92.92. From its peak of 155.92

on 9/12/39, the market has declined 40%. Or looked at another

way, 39% from a level of 151.29 on 4/8/40.

[Source for two quotes, Journal article written by Deborah

Lohse, 1996]

Brian Trumbore