Well, I was going to do a bit on Standard Oil this week but allow
me to exercise my prerogative as editor. The case against
Standard Oil will be covered next week instead. In the
meantime, in light of the recent market volatility, I thought I
would clean out my Wall Street stats file (literally pieces of scrap
collected over the years) and list a few little tidbits that may from
time to time come in handy.
Of course, I advise you to print this up and place in a cool, dry
spot; possibly the refrigerator, next to the beer.
[I am not able to make tables because each browser version may
view them differently. Please forgive the fact that there are more
printed pages than would be normal.]
1915 – Best year for the Dow Jones (percentage terms).81.7%
[Ty Cobb steals 96 bases.a record unapproached until Maury
Wills stole 104 in 1962.]
1931 – Worst year for the Dow Jones.-53.7%
[Outfielder Chick Hafey leads the N.L. in batting.(.349)]
1929 Crash:
Dow Jones peaks on September 3 at 381
Oct. 23.Dow closes at 305
Oct. 24.299
Oct. 25.301
Oct. 26.298
Oct. 28.260
Oct. 29.230
Oct. 30.258
Oct. 31.273
Apr. 17, 1930.Dow closes at 294.What”s the big problem?
July 8, 1932.Dow closes at 41.22.That”s a big problem.
A decline of 90% from the Sept. 3, 1929 high.
–Dow Jones gained a total of just 17.8% for the decade of the
60s. 12/31/59.DJ 679. 12/31/69.DJ 800.
–Dow Jones gained a total of just 4.8% for the decade of the 70s.
12/31/79.DJ 838.
*Now to be fair, the stocks in the Dow generally had hefty
dividends back then so the total return was better. But you get
the point.
Bear Market of 1973-74
Dow Jones peaked on 1/11/73.1051
Dow Jones bottomed on 12/6/74.577
*Decline of 45%.
Dow 1,000
DJ first crossed the 1,000 level, intra-day, 2 times in each of
January and February of 1966. The average didn”t close above
the 1,000 mark until November 11, 1972.
Seasonality
According to Yale Hirsch and his “Stock Traders Almanac,”
Since 1950 (thru 1998) the 6 months between November and
April have exhibited superior performance to the 6 between May
and October.
–$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 between May and October
grew to $11,138.that”s it.
–$10,000 invested between November and April grew to
$340,250.
Election Years
But, regarding seasonality, there is this partial contradiction.
Since 1952 the S&P 500 has been up each presidential election
year for the 7-month period between May and December.
[Yale Hirsch]
Crash of 1987
The Dow Jones peaked on August 25 at 2722. As of October 5,
the Dow was still at 2640. Then.
Tues. Oct. 13.Dow closes at 2508.up 37 points
Wed. Oct. 14.2412
Thurs. Oct. 15.2355
Fri. Oct. 16.2246.uh oh.
Mon. Oct. 19.1738.the DJ had an intra-day low of 1677.
*People forget that the scariest day was Tuesday the 20th. The
Dow hit 1616 before rallying (thanks to the Fed) and closed at
1841. But the Nasdaq fell 9% that Tuesday and, if I recall
correctly, only about 200 NYSE stocks advanced (the biggest,
most liquid names). So.
Biggest Divergences
On Oct. 20, 1987, the Dow Jones rose 5.9% while the Nasdaq
fell the above mentioned 9%.
*This remains the largest divergence between the two in history.
On April 3, 2000, the Dow Jones rose 2.8% and the Nasdaq fell
7.6%.the worst since ”87.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index gained 796% for the decade of the 90s.
Asian Contagion of 1997 [Closing prices]
Aug. 6, 1997.Dow Jones peaks at 8259
Aug. 29.7622
Oct. 7.8178
Oct. 27.7161.Dow closes down 554 points that day.
Russian Crisis of 1998
July 17, 1998.Dow Jones peaks at 9337, Nasdaq 2008
Aug. 31.7539
Sept. 23.8154
Oct. 1…7632.7540, intra-day
Oct. 30.8592
Key Index #”s for the past few years
12/31/97
Dow Jones 7908
S&P 500 970
Russell 2000 437
Nasdaq 1570
October 8, 1998
Dow Jones 7731.hit 7399 intra-day.
S&P 500 959
Russell 2000 310
Nasdaq 1419
12/31/98
Dow Jones 9181
S&P 500 1229
Russell 2000 421
Nasdaq 2192
The Fed / Bond Market
–Fed Funds hit a high of 19% in June 1981
–2-year Treasury had a yield of 16.5% in Sept. 1981
–18% CDs in early 1981
–February 1989: Fed round of tightening ends with Fed Funds
at 9.75%. Easing begins in June 1989, continues through
September 1992 when the Funds rate bottoms at 3.00%.
–Fed tightens 7 times over the period 2/94-2/95 as Fed Funds
rate increases from 3.00% to 6.00%.
Fed 1999-2000
–Current round of tightening begins on June 30, 1999.
Dow Jones closes that day at 10970. Nasdaq 2680.
–Fed raises interest rates again on 8/24/99, 11/16/99, 2/2/00,
3/21/00.5, 25 basis point increases in all.
Treasury Interest Rates 12/31/99
2-year 6.24%
10-year 6.43%
30-year 6.48%
Treasury Interest Rates 2/18/00
2-year 6.63%
10-year 6.49%
30-year 6.16%
Closing prices for Gold
12/31/96.$368
12/31/97.$289
12/31/98.$288
12/31/99.$289
March 14, 2000
Jeremy Siegel writes his Wall Street Journal op-ed piece
proclaiming technology stocks are grossly overvalued. My hero.
Wilshire 5000
The Wilshire 5000 stock index (really about 7,200 stocks) was
invented by Dennis Tito at Wilshire Associates. In a prior
position, I had big arguments with Mr. Tito, never knowing he
had founded the Wilshire. * Each point in the index represents
about $1.16 billion in market cap. The current value of all listed
stocks is thus approx. $15.3 trillion as of 4/20/00
Finally, in 1999 the equity market in Armenia rose 23%. In
Uzbekistan, it fell 44%. I have since pared my Uzbek position
way back.
Note: The above figures were collected from various sources
and are deemed accurate.
Brian Trumbore
*Due to time constraints, I am unable to honor any individual
requests for market data.
