Following is a bit of original research that looks at the movement
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average between Election Day,
Inauguration Day, and the traditional “100-Day Honeymoon.”
But first a few notes.
–The president elected is listed with his political affiliation.
–The actual election day is listed, however, prior to 1984,
Election Day was a national holiday and the stock market was
closed. Thus, the listed level of the Dow Jones is the closing
price for the day before. Beginning in 1984, the markets were
open on Election Day and that day”s closing price is reflected.
–Inauguration Day was held on March 4 until 1936, at which
time it was changed to January 20.
–The 100 days is not exact. I chose June 14 and April 30,
respectively, to best represent the period. Obviously, a day or
two doesn”t make a difference. Just call it editorial prerogative.
While the 100-days is generally associated with a new president,
I think it is fair to apply it to any new administration.
–Two historical notes: FDR died during the 100-days following
his election to a fourth term (4/12/45). Ronald Reagan was shot
during his first hundred days (3/30/81).
Summation:
–If we look at just the last 15 elections, going back to 1940, the
Dow has risen 10 of 15 years between Election Day and
Inauguration Day, including the last five such periods in-a-row.
–If you look at the period between Election Day and the end of
the 100-day honeymoon, the numbers are exactly the same.
This, of course, also plays into the market seasonality factor.
Simply put, the six months between November and April
historically outperform, by a wide margin, the six months
between May and October.
*Due to the way these articles are “posted” onto the web, the
figures are a bit askew. I apologize for this.
1900 – McKinley [R] 11/6 60.87 3/4/01 67.58 6/14 77.07
1904 – Roosevelt [R] 11/8 66.21 3/4/05 76.14 6/14 74.11
1908 – Taft [R] 11/3 82.90 3/4/09 81.79 6/14 94.19
1912 – Wilson [D] 11/5 90.29 3/4/13 80.71 6/14 75.52
1916 – Wilson [D] 11/7 107.21 3/4/17 93.63 6/14 97.75
1920 – Harding [R] 11/2 85.48 3/4/21 75.11 6/14 70.05
1924 – Coolidge [R] 11/4 103.89 3/4/25 123.26 6/14 129.38
1928 – Hoover [R] 11/4 257.58 3/4/29 313.86 6/14 313.68
1932 – FDR [D] 11/8 61.53 3/4/33 53.84 6/14 94.06
1936 – FDR [D] 11/3 176.67 1/20/37 185.96 4/30 174.27
1940 – FDR [D] 11/5 135.21 1/20/41 129.24 4/30 115.54
1944 – FDR [D] 11/7 147.92 1/20/45 152.71 4/30 165.44
1948 – Truman [D] 11/2 189.76 1/20/49 181.43 4/30 174.16
1952 – Eisenhower [R]11/4 270.23 1/20/53 288.00 4/30 274.75
1956 – Eisenhower [R] 11/6 495.37 1/20/57 477.46 4/30 494.36
1960 – Kennedy [D] 11/8 597.63 1/20/61 634.37 4/30 678.71
1964 – Johnson [D] 11/3 875.51 1/20/65 895.31 4/30 922.31
1968 – Nixon [R] 11/5 946.23 1/20/69 931.25 4/30 950.18
1972 – Nixon [R] 11/7 984.80 1/20/73 1026.19 4/30 921.43
1976 – Carter [D] 11/2 966.09 1/20/77 959.03 4/30 926.90
1980 – Reagan [R] 11/4 937.20 1/20/81 950.68 4/30 997.75
1984 – Reagan [R] 11/6 1244.15 1/20/85 1227.36 4/30 1258.06
1988 – Bush [R] 11/8 2127.49 1/20/89 2235.36 4/30 2418.80
1992 – Clinton[D] 11/3 3252.48 1/20/93 3241.95 4/30 3427.55
1996 – Clinton[D] 11/5 6081.18 1/20/97 6843.87 4/30 7008.99
2000 – ? [?] 11/7 10952.18
[Sources: “Facts About the Presidents,” Joseph Kane; “The Dow
Jones Averages,” edited by Phyllis Pierce.]
Brian Trumbore
Note: I will resume my normal schedule next week and the article
will be posted for Friday, November 17.
