About a year ago I did a piece laying out some key market
statistics. Certainly, in light of the action over the past year, it
makes sense to update some of the data. Print this out and file it
away for future reference.
Dow Jones
Best year – 1915.+81.7%
Worst year – 1931.-53.7%
1929 Crash
Dow Jones peaked on September 3 at 381.
October 28.260
October 29.230
April 17, 1930.Dow closes at 294. What”s the problem?
July 8, 1932.Dow closes at 41.22. That”s a big problem.
[A decline of 90% from the September 3, 1929 peak.]
Bear Market of 1973-74
Dow Jones peaked on 1/11/73.1051
Dow bottomed on 12/6/74.577
[A decline of 45%.]
Dow 1,000
Dow Jones first crossed the 1,000 level, intra-day, two times in
each of January and February 1966. The average didn”t close
above 1,000 until November 11, 1972.
Crash of 1987
The Dow Jones peaked on August 25 at 2722. As of October 5
the Dow was still at 2640. Then.
Tuesday, Oct. 13.Dow closes at 2508, up 37 points.
Wednesday, Oct. 14.Dow 2412
Thursday, Oct. 15.Dow 2355
Friday, Oct. 16.Dow 2246.uh oh..
Monday, Oct. 19.Dow closes at 1738, intra-day low was 1677.
*But the scariest day was actually Tuesday the 20th. The Dow
hit 1616 before rallying (thanks to the Fed) and closed at 1841.
But the Nasdaq fell 9% that Tuesday, and, if I recall correctly,
only about 200 NYSE stocks advanced; the largest, most liquid
names.
Returns for the decade of the.
60s – Dow Jones +17.8% (not including dividends)
70s – Dow Jones +4.8% (yup.that”s it)
80s – Dow Jones +228%, Nasdaq +200%
90s – Dow Jones +318%, Nasdaq +796%
Key index #”s for the past few years.
10/11/90.start of 90s bull move
Dow Jones 2365.trailing p/e, 11.6
S&P 500 295.trailing p/e, 14.1
Nasdaq 325
*Bulls 32.2%, Bears 53.7%.Investors Intelligence survey
**Avg. daily volume on NYSE, 155 million.
12/31/97
Dow Jones 7908
S&P 500 970
Russell 2000 437
Nasdaq 1570
10/8/98.bottom of Russian / Long-Term Capital Mgmt. crises
Dow Jones 7731
S&P 500 959
Russell 2000 310
Nasdaq 1419
12/31/98
Dow Jones 9181
S&P 500 1229
Russell 2000 421
Nasdaq 2192
6/30/99.Fed starts raising interest rates
Dow Jones 10970
Nasdaq 2680
12/31/99
Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 1469.*7/16/99, S&P trailing p/e peaks at 36.97
Russell 2000 504
Nasdaq 4069
3/10/00.historic day
Dow Jones 9928
S&P 500 1395
Nasdaq 5048*
12/31/00
Dow Jones 10786
S&P 500 1320
Russell 2000 483
Nasdaq 2470
All-time highs.
Dow Jones 11722
S&P 500 1527
Russell 2000 606
Nasdaq 5048
Yearly returns.* “Total return” for both the Dow Jones and the
S&P 500.
Dow Jones
”95 +36.4%
”96 +28.6%
”97 +24.9%
”98 +18.1%
”99 +27.2%
”00 -4.6%
S&P 500
”95 +37.6%
”96 +23.0%
”97 +33.4%
”98 +28.6%
”99 +21.0%
”00 -9.1%
Russell 2000
”95 +26.2%
”96 +14.8%
”97 +20.5%
”98 -3.5%
”99 +19.6%
”00 -4.2%
Nasdaq
”95 +39.9%
”96 +22.7%
”97 +21.6%
”98 +39.6%
”99 +85.6%
”00 -39.3%.largest decline for major U.S. index since 1931.
Gold.closing price for the year. [Someone out there cares.]
”96.$368
”97.$289
”98.$288
”99.$289
”00.$272
Treasury Yields
12/31/99
2-yr. 6.24%
10-yr. 6.43%
12/31/00
2-yr. 5.09%
10-yr. 5.11%
Market tidbits.
–Stock of the year for 2000: Rambus / $17 to $127 to $36.
–1/3/01: Nasdaq rose 14%, best day ever.
–1973, U.S. imported 36% of its energy needs. Today, 56%.
–Bonds: Fed funds hit an all-time high of 19% in June 1981.
2-yr. Treasury had a yield of 16.5% in September 1981.
18% CDs in early 1981.
February 1989: Fed round of tightening ends with Fed funds at
9.75%. Easing begins in June 1989 and continues through
September 1992 when the funds rate bottoms at 3.00%.
Fed tightens 7 times over the period 2/94-2/95. Funds rate
rises from 3.00% to 6.00%.
Fed raises rates 6 times over the period 6/99-5/00. Funds rate
rises from 4.75% to 6.50%.
All-time highs.as we “roll out” of the once all time, and 52-
week, highs for technology companies, it is necessary to
remember the following.
AOL 1/3/00 $83
AT&T 3/29/00 $61
Apple 3/23/00 $75
Amazon.com 12/9/99 $113
Cisco 3/27/00 $82
Ciena 10/20/00 $151
Corning 8/30/00 $113
Dell 3/22/00 $60
EMC 9/25/00 $105
eBay 3/27/00 $127
Intel 8/28/00 $76
JDS Uniphase 3/7/00 $153
Juniper 10/16/00 $245
Lucent 12/29/99 $74
Microsoft 12/30/99 $120
Nortel 7/25/00 $89
Oracle 9/1/00 $46
Rambus 6/23/00 $127
Sun Micro 9/1/00 $65
Yahoo 1/4/00 $250
Super Bowl Spots
1997 – 30-second spot went for $1 million
2000 – 30-second spot goes for $2.3 million
2001 – 30-second spot goes for $2.3 million.peak?
George Bush won 2470 counties in 2000. Nasdaq finished 2000
at 2470.
Important quotes re: technology
“New technologies don”t guarantee new profits, and without
profits, new technologies will flounder.”
–Economist Robert Samuelson
“Today”s winning technology is tomorrow”s sinkhole.”
–Bill Gross / King of Bonds
Note: The above figures were collected from various sources and
are deemed to be accurate.
Brian Trumbore
**Due to time constraints, I am unable to honor any individual
requests for market data.
