From time to time, some of you write me and say, “Hey, editor,
we know you follow steel production, what are the figures telling
us these days?”
Well, I don’t know if they tell us anything right now, but I had to
spend the time looking at the trends since we have all been told
that the economic recovery is for real. Glancing at the figures, I
have my doubts.
True, steel is but one indicator, albeit a good one in gauging the
health of the manufacturing sector (shipping and rail freight
traffic are a few of the other good ones), though admittedly the
service sector carries more of an impact these days. Nonetheless,
it can be a useful gauge and worth looking at from time to time.
So what I’ve done here is lay out a few periods of time and
added the S&P 500 for your information. Following are some
guidelines.
–The # represents “thousand tons” produced in a week. The
actual # is not as important as the trend. For example, the figure
for 2/1/02 is exactly the same as 3/23/90, when I started jotting
these figures down on scrap paper. [*Sorry, the data is not on
disc, but I’d be happy to supply you with a few individual figures
for a given point in time.]
–You may see a ‘dupe’ or two, which isn’t a typo, just a
reflection of the way Barron’s may have updated or revised the
numbers.
–One or two of the S&P 500 figures does not match up exactly
with the data due to holidays.
**I apologize that the numbers may be a little crooked depending
on your browser.
I’ll return to more normal stories next week.
2002..Steel..S&P 500
2/1…1873…1122
2/8…1917…1096
2/15..1902…1104
2/22..1874…1089
3/1…1894…1131
3/8…1881…1164
3/15..1866…1166
3/22..1927…1148
3/29..1989…1147
4/5…1885…1122
4/12..1908…1111
4/19..1916…1125
4/26..1874…1076
5/3…1887…1073
2001
2/2…1849…1349
2/9…1852…1314
2/16..1894…1301
2/23..1899…1245
3/2…1953…1234
3/9…1989…1233
3/16..2009…1150
3/23..2011…1139
3/30..2040…1160
4/6…1968…1128
4/13..1919…1183
4/20..1926…1242
4/27..1871…1253
5/4…1973…1266
2000
2/4…2197…1424
2/11..2194…1387
2/18..2272…1346
2/25..2317…1333
3/3…2299…1409
3/10..2284…1395
3/17..2270…1464
3/24..2290…1527* [All-time high for S&P]
3/31..2329…1498
4/7…2379…1516
4/14..2337…1356
4/21..2320…1434
4/28..2320…1452
5/5…2282…1432
1999
2/5…2002…1239
2/12..1959…1230
2/19..1930…1239
2/26..1973…1238
3/5…2024…1275
3/12..2044…1294
3/19..1943…1299
3/26..1992…1282
4/2…1972…1293
4/9…2051…1348
4/16..1960…1319
4/23..1875…1356
4/30..1961…1335
5/7…1956…1345
And then I thought I’d explore the fourth quarter data (my definition of such).
2001..Steel..S&P 500
10/5…1748…1071
10/12..1742…1091
10/19..1707…1073
10/26..1666…1104
11/2…1537…1087
11/9…1625…1120
11/16..1668…1138
11/23..1573…1150
11/30..1576…1139
12/7…1538…1158
12/14..1501…1123
12/21..1370…1144…production obviously shot up from here.
2000
10/6…2129…1408
10/13..2027…1374
10/20..2042…1396
10/27..1974…1379
11/3…1942…1426
11/10..1972…1365
11/17..1983…1362
11/24,,1868…1341
12/1…1874…1315
12/8…1874…1369
12/15..1903…1312
12/22..1759…1305
1999
10/8…2065…1336
10/15..2024…1247
10/22..2101…1301
10/29..2090…1366
11/5…2111…1370
11/12..2064…1396
11/19..2172…1472
11/26..2128…1416
12/3…2206…1433
12/10..2089…1417
12/17..2101…1421
12/24..2168…1458
1998
10/9…1969…984
10/16..1893…1056
10/23..2011…1070
10/30..1986…1098
11/6…1920…1141
11/13..1841…1125
11/20..1864…1163
11/27..1892…1192
12/4…1736…1176
12/11..1747…1166
12/18..1881…1188
12/25..1924…1226
Brian Trumbore
