By now, you all have heard that the U.S. equity markets fell for a
third straight year for the first time since the 1939-41 period.
The only time the averages fell four years in a row was 1929-32.
So I thought we’d look at the facts. I’m covering both the down
times and the immediate periods following them so you can try
and gauge the potential strength of any recovery we may have,
because, one day the market will finish up again for a full year. I
swear. It can happen…or so they say.
[The geopolitical landscape, along with the overall economy and
trends in interest rates, will, of course, have much to say about
future returns, irrespective of past trends.]
Total Returns on the S&P 500 (including dividends):
1929…-8.4%
1930…-24.9%
1931…-43.3%
1932…-8.2%
1933…+54.0%
1934…-1.4%
1935…+47.7%
1936…+33.9%
Closing figures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the
same period:
12/31/28…300.00
12/31/29…248.48
12/31/30…164.58
12/31/31…77.90
12/31/32…59.93…all-time low of 41.22 set 7/8/32.
12/31/33…99.90
12/31/34…104.04
12/31/35…144.13
12/31/36…179.90
S&P 500
1939…-0.4%
1940…-9.8%
1941…-11.6%
1942…+20.3%
1943…+25.9%
1944…+19.8%
1945…+36.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
12/31/38…154.76
12/31/39…150.24
12/31/40…131.13
12/31/41…110.96
12/31/42…119.40
12/31/43…135.89
12/31/44…152.32
12/31/45…192.91
S&P 500
1973…-14.7%
1974…-26.5%
1975…+37.2%
1976…+23.8%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
12/31/72…1020.02
12/31/73…850.86
12/31/74…616.24
12/31/75…852.41
12/31/76…1004.65
Note:
–The 1929 high of 381.17 was established on 9/3/29. It didn’t
see that level again until 11/23/54, 382.74.
Total returns for the S&P 500 during the period 1995-2002:
1995…+37.4%
1996…+23.1%
1997…+33.4%
1998…+28.6%
1999…+21.0%
2000…-9.1%
2001…-11.9%
2002…-22.1%
Nasdaq returns for the same period, 1995-2002:
1995…+39.9%
1996…+22.7%
1997…+21.6%
1998…+39.6%
1999…+85.6%
2000…-39.3%
2001…-21.1%
2002…-31.5%
All-time highs and 12/31/02 closing levels.
S&P 500…3/24/00…1527…12/31/02…879
Dow Jones…1/14/00…11722…12/31/02…8341
Nasdaq…3/10/00…5048…12/31/02…1335
—
Sources: Ibbotson Associates, “The Dow Jones Averages” edited
by Phyllis S. Pierce.
Wall Street History will return next week.
Happy New Year!
Brian Trumbore
