As the Trumbore family sat down to another great Thanksgiving
feast, my 5-year old nephew did his Tiny Tim rendition of the
standard holiday blessing. I realized later that we forgot to add
one thing, “Thank God we aren”t living in Chechnya.” So many
Americans walk around this great country totally clueless when it
comes to the outside world. Let me describe the scene Thursday
night, in Grozny, the Chechen capital.
For starters, Grozny is a city of a few hundred thousand people
living in bombed out buildings leftover from the war of 1994-96.
While many of the citizens have fled the current Russian
onslaught, tens of thousands remain, mostly the elderly and
infirmed. They live in dank, dark basements with no electricity or
running water. The long, awful winter is setting in. There has
already been some snow and lots of cold rain, turning the city into
one giant mud hole.
So it”s late Thursday night. You”re about to doze off as you
check on your crippled up mother for the last time of the evening.
You sleep on some wet cardboard and maybe some straw
when…BOOM…BOOM…BOOM…20 seconds of sheer terror
with 100 rockets falling on the city. Then a pause…you check to
see if everyone is okay…BOOM…BOOM…BOOM. 100 more
rockets in 20 seconds. You cry out to God, asking Him “Why?”
You hear a bomb has made a direct hit on the building next door.
You”re totally helpless. You grab onto your loved ones
and…BOOM…BOOM….BOOM…BOOM…100 more rockets
in, again, 20 seconds. Everyone is in hysterics. God doesn”t
seem to have an answer….BOOM…BOOM…BOOM…100
more follow…and again, and again.
[Seriously, look at a clock and count out 100 explosions in 20
seconds. Then multiply that by at least ten.]
That is exactly what happened in Grozny. An absolutely horrific
scene worthy of anyone”s worst depiction of hell. We”ll never
know how many civilians were killed. [If you watched the
national news on Friday night, NBC had exactly 5 seconds on it,
ABC, none.] But we need to care. The Russian army is doing
exactly what they said they would. They are encircling Grozny,
encouraging civilians to leave, through barbaric means, and soon
they will start dropping their secret weapons on the estimated
6500 Chechen rebels dug in the capital. More than one Russian
general has admitted his troops have gas masks. And the fuel-air
explosives I wrote of a few weeks ago will be introduced. I hope
the Chechens surrender to save themselves but that doesn”t seem
likely. I”m sure the rebels attitude is that the Russians would kill
them as prisoners so better to die in their trenches, on their own
soil.
Jim Hoagland had the following commentary this week. “The
Chechen war is determining the nature of the Russian state for the
foreseeable future….If they succeed in Chechnya, the Russian
generals will have more influence at the Kremlin than at any time
since the early days of Soviet rule. And these generals are not
only angry. They are also determined to redress and avenge the
successive demonstrations of Russian state impotence in the first
Chechen conflict, in Clinton”s politically driven rush to NATO
expansion and in NATO”s air war on Serbia over Kosovo.”
And a few final notes on this topic. Prime Minister Putin
continues to ride the wave over the conduct of the war. The polls
now show him with 37% in the race for President versus just 13%
for the Communist Zhyuganov, and only 9% for the former prime
minister Primakov. All three were basically even just a week ago.
And asked whether Russia should reinstate itself as a great
empire, 85% of the people vote yes, 7% no. The other 8% were
too drunk to mumble yes or no.
And what of Boris Yeltsin? The man who looked so robust and
engaged just one week ago at the international conference in
Turkey, suddenly was laid up again with “severe bronchitis.” The
timing is oh so curious. Grozny is about to meet its final end and
the day Yeltsin fell ill he was supposed to sign the long-awaited
reunification treaty with Belarus and their wicked President
Lukashenko. It”s virtually impossible to figure out what goes on
in the Kremlin, but I”ll keep trying.
More International Affairs
China launched its first unmanned spacecraft, a shuttle type
vehicle, and pledges to put a man in space next year. Of course,
they also immediately admitted that the rocket technology that
was employed has military applications.
Iraq rejected an extension of the UN”s oil-for-food program and
halted oil shipments as a way of seeking an end to sanctions. The
current system simply isn”t working and the UN (led by the U.S.)
has to understand that it”s more important to have arms
inspectors on the ground then to continue a failed policy initially
designed to encourage an overthrow of Saddam which, instead, is
only hurting children.
The European Union is playing games with Turkey again. Turkey
desperately wants to be part of the EU, which would help not
only to modernize the nation but also add stability to the region.
Yet the EU said it won”t consider membership if Turkey carries
out the death sentence against Kurd rebel leader Ocalan, a
sentence Turkey has every right to carry out without
recrimination.
President Clinton wrapped up his European trip by stopping in
Kosovo where his pleas for forgiveness between the Albanians
and the Serbs fell on deaf ears. Winter is setting in and aid
agencies fear a 2nd disaster in the territory. Due to problems with
food and shelter in rural areas, the population of the capital
Pristina has ballooned from a pre-war level of 600,000 to
2,000,000. Not exactly a good situation…and just another travel
destination to cross off your “must see” list.
Wall Street
Forgive me if I”m brief but I certainly have said my fair share on
the markets the past few weeks and, after all, my brain needs a
rest if I”m to gear back up for the Millennium. The Nasdaq was
where the action was, again, as on Friday the index hit its 16th
closing record in 20 sessions. For the week the average finished
up another 2.3% and is now up 57% on the year. The S&P 500
and the Dow Jones (10988) fell slightly.
Nothing typifies the action on the Nasdaq more than the story of
a heretofore small, money losing company by the name of Ariel
Corp. Oh, don”t you wish you owned some. On Tuesday, Ariel
shares traded at $3 a share. By Wednesday”s close the stock hit
$10 as the company announced that governments worldwide were
approving the use of its new modem card for Internet access.
After gorging themselves on turkey, day traders took the shares
even higher on Friday morning. $20…$30…$40…$50…finally
peaking at $56! By the end of the day the shares had settled at
$37. Oh, and by the way, Ariel isn”t expected to make money in
2000 either.
So there you have it, the friggin” feeding frenzy continues. If you
own the stuff, take your spouse or mistress (heck, take them
both) out to the finest restaurant. Rent a limo, drink the best
wines, tip the captain and waiter 40% (each), light a stogie and
say, “Thank God I”m in America.”
When does it all end? As I said last week, just keep your eye on
interest rates. They inched up some more with the yield on the
30-year Treasury finishing the week at 6.23%. Suddenly, many
folks are talking about the Fed raising rates again, maybe in
February!! Weren”t these the same characters who said less than
2 weeks ago the Fed was finished until at least next summer?!
All I see are retailers and e-tailers in desperate need of help,
offering all kinds of bonuses to folks with a 6th grade education.
“Hey, you, over there. You live on this planet? We”ll pay you
$10 an hour if you”ll just listen to complaints all day until
Christmas. Great. Here”s your smock.”
And speaking of e-commerce, Internet sales were $2.5 billion last
holiday season. The conservative estimate for this year is that
sales will approach $6 billion. Ernst & Young, however, is
projecting $12-15 billion.
International Business Notes
The London FT-SE index closed at a new all-time high on Friday.
Meanwhile, the European Union raised their estimate for the
regions growth to 2.9% for 2000 which would mark the fastest
pace of expansion since 1990. However, while inflation is well
below the European Central Banks target of 2%, they continue to
issue warnings that it is picking up. And in a very controversial
move, the German government of Chancellor Schroeder is bailing
out Germany”s largest builder with public funds.
Japan”s debt to GDP ratio now exceeds that of Italy”s. Now
that”s something NOT to be proud of. Nonetheless, many
Japanese equity watchers are convinced the signs of growth in the
economy are for real. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea”s GDP
rose 12% in the 3rd quarter, a figure that is somewhat deceiving
since it is measured against 1998”s abysmal economic
performance. However, real progress is being made there.
This Week In Politics
–I saw something in Newsweek which got my juices
flowing…and also forces me to fess up as to who I have voted for
for President in my lifetime. 1976 – Ford, 1980 – Anderson, 1984
– Reagan, 1988 – Bush, 1992 – Perot, 1996 – Dole. Yes, despite
all my right-wing vitriol, I have an independent streak in me.
Back in 1980, I was a senior at Wake Forest University. John
Anderson had just declared he was going to run as a 3rd-party
candidate and he was making one of his first speeches on campus.
I helped organize it and I was enthralled by his performance. It
turns out I was probably one of only 2 or 3 who were. You see,
Anderson spent his whole speech educating us on the issue of the
day, the MX-missile (and how it should be based). I was sitting
there thinking, “Now that”s a President.” Everyone else was
bored to tears.
Well, this week comes word that Jesse Ventura has held
discussions with 77-year old John Anderson about running for the
Reform Party nomination. I haven”t seen or heard much of
Anderson in years but if he can walk and chew gum at the same
time, dammit, I”m going to give him some ink. Go for it,
Mr. Anderson.
–Speaking of the Reform Party, Pat Buchanan did his best to
combat charges that he was an isolationist. In a speech to the
Libertarian CATO Institute, he urged a dialogue with Iran and
Iraq (I agree), said that we should set a date for withdrawal of all
American forces from Europe ( I disagree, especially while Russia
is behaving the way they currently are), and he calls
“interventionism” in crises like Kosovo, an incubator of terrorism
(I agree).
–From the 11/22 issue of The Weekly Standard comes the
following comical (and at the same time pitiful) account.
“As reported by the German press agency Deutsche Presse-
Agentur: ”U.S. President Bill Clinton tried to look up an old
girlfriend this week while visiting Oslo for the Mideast summit,
the Israeli tabloid Yedioth Ahronoth claimed Friday.”
”U.S. diplomats turned Oslo upside down to find the woman
Clinton had not been able to forget since touring Europe as a
student 30 years ago. When they found her, she thought hard and
said: ”Clinton? I don”t recall ever meeting someone of that
name,” Yedioth reported. Israeli Minister for International
Relations Shimon Peres said Clinton had described how he asked
Ambassador to Norway David Hermelin to see if he could find
the former contact, the paper said.””
–According to the Washington Post, Clinton and Gore haven”t
had lunch since August 10th. How could they get together when
Clinton is still chasing skirts? I mean, give the Prez a break. He”s
busy!!
–As some New York Democrats called Hillary Clinton”s
campaign a “wreck” the Hillster announced unofficially, officially,
that she was running for the Senate. In her comments to reporters
Hillary announced that the Clintons both have “unfinished
business,” a statement which was enough to set columnist
Maureen Dowd off.
“One would think that 8 years running this country is a pretty
good shot at getting your business done. But there”s something
so rootless and chaotic about the Clintons. They seem like a virus
or alien that needs a host body to survive. They”ve invaded our
national psyche and we”re going to have to keep living with their
weird marital problems and tangled ambitions forever and ever.
Their business will never be finished. They will be in our faces,
exhausting us with their ”we want to do good so we can break the
rules when we need to” ethos.”
–At the Thanksgiving dinner table I said I was also getting tired
of Chelsea. At this I was ripped into by my brother, sis-in-law,
and Dad. Only Mom was on my side. [The 5 and 12-year olds
had no real opinion, especially my nephew who after the blessing
was wrapped up in Pokemon.] So having been shot down, 3-2, I
will hold my pen for another day.
–The latest Newsweek poll has Gore narrowing his deficit against
Bush. Bush now leads, 49-43 (it had been 53-39). Bush
continues to slaughter McCain, nationally, 62-13, while Gore has
widened his national lead over Bradley to 49-27 (CNN/USA
Today has it 56-34). One gets the sense that both Bradley and
McCain may have had their 2 weeks in the sun. It”s awful tough
to get the momentum back, unless the leaders stumble badly.
–I may have given Bill Clinton too much credit when I said he
kicked the Republican”s butts in budget negotiations.
Congressional Quarterly reports that Clinton prevailed only 36%
of the time when Congress voted on an issue where his position
was clear. He also didn”t get anything he asked for in his State of
the Union message, including overhauls of Social Security and
Medicare (not that Republicans can take any particular credit for
this mutual failure in governance.)
Random Musings
–NBC had a report on a WW II vet, Pete Montalvo, who was on
the USS Yorktown, a ship that was sunk in the Battle of Midway,
1942. Hundreds lost their lives but Montalvo, who was severely
injured, survived. Today, each Tuesday evening, he calls the 260
remaining survivors. The phone rings once and then he hangs up.
He has sent his message of gratitude.
–According to the Cigar Association of America, sales of
premium cigars have fallen 27% this year.
–Arnold Palmer”s wife, Winnie, died last Saturday and it received
zero publicity. Arnie would be the first one to say that Winnie
played a huge role in his success.
–Y2K Update: Internally, I keep waffling on this issue. One
minute I think it”s no problem (domestically), the next I wonder
just how much cash and water to stock. Locally, this week Bell
Atlantic screwed up again, the 3rd time in about 2 months. No,
the region”s economy didn”t come to a screeching halt but the
reason for the outages (which luckily didn”t take down my site)
was “installation of new software.” I”ve said this before and I”ll
say it again. Your own company has no real idea if proper fixes
have been made. In most cases the CEO can rely only on the
word of the programmers, many of whom are independent
contractors. Sabotage seems inevitable in a few high profile
cases.
As for the situation overseas, forget it. Even yesterday, the
government of Australia announced they were shutting down two
important commercial shipping ports over New Year”s because
they had no confidence that tankers will be compliant. Decisions
like these are not made lightly. [It”s been interesting to me, also,
that for whatever reason Australia and New Zealand have been on
the Y2K watch list for years now. And it”s the reason, frankly,
why I canceled a trip there for this New Year”s.]
Also, a Congressional panel reported that our own air traffic
control system “remains at risk of failure.” The administration
was miffed at this warning. We are assured all is okay. Did I say
I was staying home?
–“Y2K the Movie:” I was one of 4 people in the country who
watched this terrible flick last Sunday night. [I did take care of
my bills, though.] In the end the characters are trying to save a
nuke plant in the Pacific Northwest from a meltdown. The token
nerd makes a comment about the hero, Nick. “Who do you want
to take care of this, Nick or Homer Simpson?” I voted for
Homer.
–It”s been awhile since I had a “Dirtball of the Week.” Actually,
that”s because Latrell Sprewell could have personally retired the
award. Anyway, a native Hawaiian rights activist by the name of
Mililani Trask gets it this week. Mililani called Sen. Daniel
Inouye a “one-armed bandit” and threatened to “kick Inouye”s
yellow ass.” Inouye, a Japanese-American, lost his arm to a
grenade in WW II. [If you”re also wondering why I didn”t give
the award to Carolina Panthers receiver Rae Carruth, I”m saving
him for Monday”s Bar Chat.]
–Deer are now responsible for 1.5 million road accidents a year.
These giant rats must be exterminated.
–Serious crime in America declined in the first 6 months of this
year to the lowest level in 25 years.
–The NFL has thankfully banned the throat-slashing gesture that
players like Keyshawn Johnson had adopted as a means of
celebrating a big play. Just incredibly idiotic behavior. So the
New York Jets Bryan Cox, once a wildman and now a pretty
good guy, had the following unfortunate comment on this issue.
“White America doesn”t understand the black athlete. When a
guy does something like that, he”s basically saying, ”You”re cut
off, there”s nothing else going to happen here today.””
Interesting…and very stupid.
–Last July 17th I wrote of Leon Smith, a Chicago high school
phenom who was drafted by the Dallas Mavericks of the NBA.
Because of his poor attitude at a rookie camp, I said he was “a
new dirtball waiting in the wings.” Well, unfortunately, Leon has
some major problems. He tried to commit suicide last week.
–I was watching Alabama – Auburn the other day. One of
”Bama”s players, Chris Samuels, is majoring in “Human
Performance.” Not having ever known this was available, I”m
assuming it”s the study of those who act human…and those who
don”t. If you hear of one of those correspondence schools
offering graduate work in this discipline, I”d love to know. This
is how I could get a Masters!
Gold closed at $299 [see comment below]
Nymex Crude Oil, $26.87
Returns for the week 11/22-11/26
Dow Jones -0.1%
S&P 500 -0.4%
S&P Midcap -1.5%
Russell 2000 -0.5%
Nasdaq +2.3%
Returns for the period, 1/1/99-11/26/99*
Dow Jones +19.7%
S&P 500 +15.2%
S&P Midcap +8.5%
Russell 2000 +8.8%
Nasdaq +57.2%
Bulls 52.1%
Bears 29.1% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
*Not including dividends.
**If you”re a gold bug, you”ll enjoy this week”s installment of
“Wall Street History.” I reprinted a speech that my good friend,
gold expert Harry Bingham, made to a London audience last
week.
***There are over 700,000 web sites selling something. But at
StocksandNews, we don”t sell anything. Instead, we are giving
away the S&N coffee mug. Just click on the icon at the top of
the page. Here are some comments from recipients.
“My, that mug is something special.” –Lauren Bacall
“The quality, the craftsmanship, it”s all there.” –Lee Iacocca
“I CAN”T BELIEVE IT”S FREE!!” –Regis Philbin
Brian Trumbore
