“Oil prices are the largest dark cloud in the blue sky of the global
economy.”
–U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers
Summers also commented this week, “History shows that supply
shocks often have larger effects than people expect.”
The good news was that by week”s end, the price of oil had
continued its decline from a peak of near $38, just 10 days ago, to
the $31 level.
OPEC leaders met in Caracas this week to celebrate the cartel”s
40th anniversary and, despite the self-congratulatory talk on their
newfound wealth, there did appear to be some chinks in the
coalition.
But first, a few tidbits.
The increase in the price of oil has meant some $125 billion in
extra revenue (with the total daily take now at about $1 billion)
for nations like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. [Source: Daniel
Williams / Washington Post] The windfall is finally beginning to
stoke growth in some oil-producing countries and much needed
infrastructure projects are underway. Regardless of your
political opinions, this is generally a good thing. Non-OPEC
Russia, for example, would be in far worse shape if their oil
revenues were at 1998 levels.
But, at the same time, the new wealth has helped solidify leaders
like Saddam Hussein and Venezuela”s Hugo Chavez, not exactly
friends of the U.S. Oil represents at least one-half of all revenues
in Venezuela, for example, and Chavez actually can”t spend the
windfall fast enough.
But the split in OPEC is developing because hard-liners like
Chavez, who blame speculators and high taxes for any economic
suffering among the consuming nations, don”t seem to get the big
picture. As the above quotes from Summers allude to, oil”s major
power is in its ability to inflict psychological, as well as financial,
damage.
For example, consumer spending in France for the month of
August was the lowest in 4 years as higher fuel prices affected
consumers consumption patterns. And in Britain, it is estimated
that recent fuel protests cut their economy by 10% of its daily GDP.
So you can be sure that the coming heating oil debacle in the U.S.
will have a similar impact.
The Saudis understand this and they recognize that $30-plus oil
will only hurt them in the long run, not just because of lower
overall demand in a slumping economy, but also because one of
these days (admittedly, maybe not in our lifetime) our politicians
will start to address the real issue of energy dependence.
Siding with the Saudis is key non-OPEC producer Mexico, which
tends to act in tandem with the cartel. Mexico used to be totally
dependent on oil revenues and its economy was susceptible to
boom / bust cycles. Today, the surging nation is vastly different.
Mexican leaders understand that their economy is now tied
inextricably to the U.S. The last thing incoming President Fox
needs is a big slowdown north of the border.
And so it was that the Saudis announced this week that they will
do whatever is necessary to get oil down below $30. [And it”s a
measure of current market psychology that the price actually still
rose on this news.] They, alone, have the capacity to make a
difference.
But speaking of capacity, as our two candidates who would be
king fought on Friday over who had the better plan, some more
facts to add to last week”s oil data bank.
–There isn”t a refinery less than 25-years-old in this country. The
big oil companies could open up their checkbooks and drill for
more oil (as they are grudgingly doing today) but increasingly, the
problem is where to put it?
–According to the American Petroleum Institute, a refined barrel
of oil generally produces about 45% gasoline and 20-25%,
depending on the season, of distillate (one-third of which goes to
home heating oil and two-thirds to diesel fuel). Which means that
the release of 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve will add all of 2.5 million barrels of heating stock.
[The rest of the barrel is for jet fuel as well as for petrochemical
and utility uses.]
–Americans, in general, use carbon fuels at double the rates of
European nations.
–Power demand in the Bay Area surged 12% last year and is
expected to continue at that pace well into the future. [Unless
Silicon Valley crashes…and we don”t want that.]
–And think of this. America”s oil companies have been
postponing needed maintenance to keep up with current demand.
You know what that means. The pipes get clogged with gunk,
thereby increasing the danger of explosion or fire…and a major
supply disruption would ensue.
As I was driving through upstate New York this week, I got a
look at some of the more depressed areas of the country. My
heart goes out to those who are beginning to understand just how
high their fuel bills may be this winter. These folks are going to
need help.
You just wish, though, that for once our elected officials would
level with us. [And not just talk…action.] Drill in the Arctic (the
caribou will survive), support alternative-energy projects, and get
in the auto industry”s face and say, “Produce some fuel-efficient
cars!” And something else that”s never talked about. Take back
our railroads to help unclog the skies!
None of this, however, deals with today. As Senator Frank
Murkowski said this week, when asked about the coming fuel
crisis this winter, “People better get out their axes and chain
saws.”
I told you last week that you should send your kids out to do this
chore to keep them from spending their childhood playing video
games. But don”t give them chain saws. Especially after that
Nike commercial.
Wall Street
Actually, someone with a not so great sense of humor took a
chain saw to some very well-known stocks this week. In a
volatile, and downright depressing manner, the Dow and Nasdaq
both fell for the 4th straight week, the first time that has occurred
in 2000. The Dow lost 1.8% to close at 10650; the Nasdaq
dropped another 3.4% to finish at 3672. In losing 12% for the
month, the Nasdaq had its worst September in history.
It”s important to review the rules of the game on Wall Street at
times like this. The Street has high expectations. For corporate
America, it”s smart to meet them. As for the investing public, if
you didn”t realize it before, you do now. D-I-V-E-R-S-I-F-Y!!!
And if you are one who has somehow avoided the bombs of the
past few weeks, then pat yourself on the back, maybe celebrate
with an adult beverage, and get to work! Take a look at your
portfolio, now, and ask yourself, “If Co. X blows up like Intel,
Eastman Kodak and Apple have in the past 10 days, will I be able
to sleep at night? Will my family be taken care of?”
As the markets made passengers sick to their stomachs this week,
there is an increasing worry in the investment community that our
economy may be headed for some tough times, and we aren”t just
talking about a slowdown. That”s clearly already here.
Old and new economy stocks, alike, are beginning to see the flip-
side of once rosy – and, in some cases, cocky – forecasts.
I still can”t believe that a stock like Apple could lose over 50% in
one day as it did on Friday. That”s Third World stuff, folks. But
I continually use the phrase “priced for perfection” to describe the
current market environment for a reason. There simply is no
room for error in this new era of investing on Wall Street.
And it”s not like Intel, Kodak and Apple are losing gobs of
money. Rather, Wall Street”s research community has helped to
promulgate this nonsense that valuations don”t matter! Or, as
was the case just months ago, that rising oil, an increasingly
volatile currency market, or soaring debt levels of all stripes could
be ignored.
Spencer Ante, in the 10/2 issue of Business Week, discussed the
“Four Horsemen;” Cisco, EMC, Oracle and Sun Microsystems.
All are projecting revenue growth of 35-40% for years to come.
I hope they”re right. I know at least one of them won”t come
close.
First Call, the outfit that sorts through all of Wall Street”s
forecasts, has reduced its estimate for 3rd quarter earnings growth
from 17.1% to 16.5%…and a lot of this gain will be coming
from the soaring energy sector. Their new forecast is another
reminder of this site”s word of the month, “deceleration.” It
doesn”t mean recession. It just speaks to a new environment
where expectations are going to have to be lowered, in some
cases significantly.
But you know what? While everyone talks about October and its
history of scary market moments, the month is also often a time
of market bottoms.
Things happen so quickly these days that we may witness one
huge sell-off, perhaps precipitated by an unexpectedly poor
inflation number or Saddam being a bad citizen. While you are
doing your homework this week to double check all of your
existing holdings, you may want to make a list of stocks you”d
like to buy if that washout occurs.
Finally, on a personal note, long-time readers know of my large
position in the energy sector. To newcomers, I don”t discuss
individual issues that I may own. There are plenty of other places
for you to get that kind of information, including other links on
this site.
But I haven”t said anything about my own holdings in a few
weeks because I, myself, have had a sleepless night or two.
Without divulging too much, I have done well with energy…and I
have been invested in it for over 18 months. Just call me a
BuyandHold.com kind of guy.
At the same time, I have wracked my brain over and over again as
to whether or not I should sell out. [I have taken profits for tax
reasons along the way but immediately rolled those gains into
other issues within the group.]
I mentioned in the last few months that what would kill my play is
a global recession, resulting in collapsing demand for oil.
But I have reached the conclusion that the economy will survive,
if barely, and that oil will eventually settle down around $25.
That”s a level where everyone can be happy. OPEC, the oil
companies, Gore or Bush, French fishermen, and your editor.
It”s the newfound volatility in the oil drilling and services stocks
which drives one crazy.
Street Bytes
–Economist Robert Samuelson had some interesting thoughts on
worldwide capital flows. Of course, money flowing into the U.S.
from all corners of the globe has been a huge factor in fueling our
bull market, as well as the overall economy. Some pertinent
facts.
In 1999 all foreigners bought $332 billion worth of U.S. stocks
and spent $276 billion on direct investment in the U.S.ùbuying
American companies or building factories, shopping malls or
office complexes.
And here is what foreign investors owned as of March, according
to the International Monetary Fund.
–$1.4 trillion worth of U.S. stocks, or 7% of the total.
–$900 billion of corporate bonds, 20% of the total.
–35% of publicly held federal debt, with a face value of $1.3
trillion.
–$1.2 trillion of direct investment.
This is a reason why the euro has suffered, of course. To buy a
U.S. stock a European investor sells euros and buys dollars. Yet
the positive side for Europeans is that the weak euro aids their
export business which has been a driver of their economy.
The big worry, though, is that for whatever reason, capital flows
could reverse. And, as Samuelson concludes:
“The magnitude of capital inflows into the United States ought to
give us pause. They could reflect America”s genuine strengths –
or represent speculative excess. We have ventured into
unexplored territory. Hardly anyone truly understands today”s
rapidly changing world of global finance. Even for the United
States, what goes around could come around.”
–As a postscript to the above, Denmark”s electorate defeated a
proposal (53-47) which would have had the nation join the other
11 countries who have adopted the euro as their common
currency (Greece joins in January). It was a stinging defeat for
both the government and European monetary leaders but the vote
had little impact on the euro itself, which traded in a narrow range
this week after last Friday”s massive central bank intervention.
Votes like Thursday”s, however, are helping to fuel a revival of
populist parties (see discussion below, re Switzerland).
–Americans continue to spend more than they earn, as economic
releases on Friday bore out. It”s a ticking debt bomb. But we
tend to ignore the rising debt levels on the corporate side. Bond
king Bill Gross had the following comments.
“Corporations are assuming more and more debt, as they are
forced to invest and innovate in a furious attempt to keep up with
their Silicon Valley compatriots. Falling behind is akin to falling
off a cliff, so the debt piles up along with the hopes that it can be
serviced and paid off sometime in the not-so-certain future.”
[Source: pimcofunds.com]
The new-age companies have intangible assets that are
exceedingly difficult to analyze. On the bond side, if you want to
play around in corporates, you better know what the heck you”re
doing.
–Priceline.com stock was pummeled as the company issued a
revenue warning for the 3rd quarter. The issue is now down some
90% from its 52-week high. But it”s done a good job of building
brand awareness!!
Anyway, the day before their dire announcement I noticed this
blurb in the “social pages.”
“Priceline.com chief Richard Braddock and his wife, Susan, have
rented an Aspen mansion for the Christmas holidays for $18,505 a
day. Their total tab for the 23,000-square-foot Peak House,
worth about $27 million, will come to $388,625.”
According to Friday”s Wall Street Journal, Braddock lost about
$120 million this week. [Though he is still far from starving.]
–And tied to the above are thoughts on the e-tailers, who in many
cases are pinning the whole company”s future on the coming
Christmas season. If it proves to be a disappointing one, as I now
believe it will be (versus expectations), look out. And if you own
a chunk of Amazon.com stock, do yourself a favor and read Mark
Veverka”s article in the 9/25 issue of Barron”s. Simply put, buyer
beware.
–Microsoft won a round in its antitrust case when the U.S.
Supreme Court ruled that a lower court should take a crack
before the high court does. Microsoft believes the lower court
will be more sympathetic to their side. Nonetheless, after rallying
on the news, the stock hit a new 52-week low.
–It”s now clear that the SEC”s new Fair Disclosure rules, which
mandate that public companies can no longer selectively disclose
information to analysts but not to the public, will lead to more
market volatility not less, i.e., look for “more surprises” like we
saw with Intel and Apple.
International Affairs
Serbia: As of this writing, Slobodan Milosevic is still in charge.
Independent polls showed that opposition figure Kostunica
handily defeated Slobo in this week”s election, garnering the
50%-plus needed to avoid a runoff. But Milosevic”s election
commission ruled that Kostunica really won by only 48-40,
forcing an October 8 showdown between the two…if it gets that
far. Milosevic”s supporters are abandoning him in droves and a
betting man would say he”s out before then.
Meanwhile, Kostunica has been described by one diplomat as a
“decidedly mixed bag.” During the Balkan wars, he did not raise
any objections to Milosevic”s ethnic cleansing policies. He is also
known to be a hard-core nationalist and highly critical of the U.S.
In addition, Kostunica doesn”t think Slobo should be tried for war
crimes, which is where a deal can undoubtedly be cut. But,
despite his drawbacks, Mr. K is a free-marketeer who should be
able to speed Yugoslavia on the path of recovery once U.S. and
European sanctions are lifted upon Milosevic”s departure.
Iraq: Both France and Russia have now ignored U.N. sanctions
dealing with flights to Baghdad International. The planes have
been on more than “humanitarian” missions, but both countries
claim that prior approval was unnecessary. U.N. Secretary
General Kofi Annan ought to get their respective ambassadors in
a room and say, “Look, you little blanks, obey the freakin” rules!”
And I saw this week that Saddam chose September 4th to invade
Saudi airspace because U.S. pilots policing the no-fly zone took
the day off for Labor Day. And you think our military is
prepared?
But as a follow-up to my comment of last week about the reports
claiming Saddam has cancer, the CIA said there is no truth to
them because recent videos of Saddam indicate he is not ill. Of
course, this last bit is almost comical because everyone knows
Saddam has about 20 “doubles.”
Scene: The Tigris River. Saddam Hussein is about to cross it,
inspiring his fellow countrymen.
Iraqi General: “O.K. Bring out #9.”
Lackey: “But, General Rashid…#9 can”t swim!”
Iraqi General: “Well, get me #10 then!”
Israel: Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was cleared of
corruption charges, thus setting the stage for a potential
comeback race against Ehud Barak.
Netanyahu”s prospective challenger for his own party nomination,
Ariel Sharon, stupidly went to the West Wall to prove that the
holy places were under Israeli control. This only inflamed an
already tense situation and as of Friday evening, 6 had been killed
in serious violence in Jerusalem and the West Bank. The
Palestinians, taking offense at Sharon”s presence, attacked Jewish
worshippers, precipitating a response from the Israeli police. And
so it goes in the Middle East. Just when you think the people
may be able to live in relative harmony, the leaders mess it up.
China: Two more Falun Gong members died in prison, making it
52 since the government started cracking down on the movement.
As you would expect, the government says the deaths were not a
result of mistreatment.
Meanwhile, relations between China and the Vatican are
worsening, once again, as the Vatican is going ahead with the
canonization of 120 who were killed in China between 1648 and
1930. China claims they were all enemies of the state.
Finally, China is also none too pleased about the proposed sale of
$1.3 billion in defensive weapons by the U.S. to Taiwan (allowed
under the Taiwan Relations Act).
Russia: China doesn”t have a monopoly on controversial inmates.
This week, Russia announced that alleged U.S. spy Edmond Pope
would stand trial for espionage. Expect to hear a lot more about
this case as it threatens to severely hamper U.S. / Russian
relations.
Pope has been sitting in Moscow”s notorious Lefortovo prison
since April for trying to buy technology about an underwater
missile for a U.S. firm he was representing. Pope says that the
information was “declassified,” Russia says it was “classified.”
Pope also has a rare form of bone cancer and the U.S. is upset he
is not receiving proper treatment.
And this week President Putin seemed to backtrack on his
announced plans to slash the Russian military from 1.2 million to
850,000 troops. There is obviously a lot of internal dissension
between the various branches of the military.
Peru: President Fujimori is in deep trouble as rumors of a coup
swirled around him, two weeks after he announced he would step
down next year. And the state declared that the case against
intelligence chief Montesinos was closed with his departure to
Panama. [I cover this in greater detail in my “Hott Spotts” link.]
Japan / South Korea, South Korea / North Korea: Japan and
South Korea, bitter historical foes, agreed to strengthen their
strategic partnership with the U.S. and promised to work together
on technological innovation. It has only been within the past year
that South Korean radio stations were allowed to play Japanese
records.
North and South Korean defense chiefs met for the first time in
50 years.
No word, as yet, on the status of talks between the North and the
U.S. But isn”t it great that everyone is talking!
Britain: My, how the tide has turned. Tony Blair and his Labor
Party are suddenly behind the Conservatives in the polls,
representing a huge comeback for the Tories. Blair totally
mishandled the petrol crisis of two weeks ago and he also was
roundly booed for a move that increased state pensions by
something like $1 a week.
Additionally, there is the brewing scandal involving a $1.6 million
donation to the Labor Party in 1997 by Formula One tycoon
Bernie Ecclestone and whether or not he was trying to buy
influence. [At that price, I sure hope so!] Blair is slated to call
what is now shaping up to be a contentious election sometime
next spring.
France: And French politicians of all stripes have been engulfed in
their own money scandals involving past campaigns. French
President Chirac is being tied to an alleged multi-million dollar
slush fund established back in the 1980s. A video was produced
which contained an interview of a few years back with a one-time
Chirac aide, detailing the specifics. But the accuser is now dead.
How about a seance to settle matters?
Indonesia: A high court ruled that the corruption case against
former president Suharto should be dismissed as he is too ill to
stand trial. Now all this dirtball allegedly did was embezzle $580
million in state funds. It is a huge setback for reformers and
Jakarta has been wracked by violence since Thursday”s ruling. I
don”t care if you pull a “Weekend at Bernie”s” deal, in one shape
or form Suharto should have to take the stand.
Switzerland / Update: As a follow-up to last week”s discussion on
immigration and Europe, this week Swiss voters went to the polls
and soundly defeated (64-36) a referendum which would have
limited foreigners to 18% of the Swiss population.
But lest you think I”m spending too much time on this issue,
Monday”s Wall Street Journal had an editorial titled “Dark
Temptation.”
In discussing the anti-Muslim position of a leading Catholic leader
(the Vatican”s Cardinal Biffi), as well as other Catholic figures in
Europe, the Journal comments.
“These unusual and perhaps unprecedented statements reveal a
dark temptation in European politics. European antipathy to
immigrants appears to be spreading to the highest reaches of
society. The forces of nativism and intolerance are not limited to
Austria”s Joerg Haider and France”s Jean-Marie Le Pen.”
Pope John Paul II in no way shares the beliefs of the anti-Muslim
figures in the church. The Journal concludes.
“Europe has a lot to gain from hardworking Muslim immigrants.
So does the church. It would be better if more church leaders
saw immigration as an opportunity, not a threat.”
What the Journal failed to address, however, is my main point.
The next time European economies go through a recession, all
such altruistic thoughts go out the window.
This Week in Politics
This was the week everyone finally unloaded on the polls. But
I”ll keep reporting them.
Newsweek, 47-45 Gore
CNN / USA Today, 47-46 Bush
Zogby, 44-43 Gore
A Los Angeles Times survey had the most telling statistics (if
you want to believe their veracity).
Among men, Bush leads, 56-34
Among women, Gore leads, 49-42
Of course none of this matters because it”s debate time! Oct. 3rd,
5th (Veeps), 11th and the 17th. Watch them with your kids. And
yes, the debates take precedence over the baseball playoffs for
this guy.
But speaking of baseball, and the New York Senate campaign, I
went up to Cooperstown this week and, in my drive through
upstate New York, I observed the signs on everyone”s lawn. I
saw just one Hillary sign and at least 25 for Rick Lazio.
Now the polls show Lazio with only a 46-44 lead among upstate
voters (deadly to his hopes, if true). I just can”t believe it.
Overall, however, one poll now has Hillary with a 50-43 lead.
In other matters, Democratic Senate leaders are increasingly
frustrated that Joe Lieberman insists on running for both vice
president and his Connecticut Senate seat. Democrats feel that
they have a real shot at taking the Senate and if Gore / Lieberman
wins, Connecticut”s Republican governor can choose a
Republican to fill it.
Lastly, I bet that 20% of Americans think Martin Sheen is the real
president.
Random Musings
–A 6-year-old New Jersey boy was killed this week when he was
hit by a car while riding a scooter. What I have personally
noticed around my town is kids riding the scooters in the street,
without helmets. Every time I approach one I cringe because it is
so easy for them to lose their balance. So to the parents out
there, please urge your kids to use sidewalks. There are too
many careless drivers today…who also need to get off their
cell phones!
–So I”m musing about the Clintons and their sleepovers. Just
how many “friends” do they have? Maureen Dowd had the best
line. “They used our capital to accumulate their capital.”
–I saw my first advertisement for the drug Paxil…to be used by
those suffering from social anxiety. Gee, too bad this wasn”t
available in Howard Hughes”s day! [The preceding just flew over
the head of anyone younger than 30.] But Paxil also has “sexual
side effects.” What”s the point of the drug then?!……awaiting
censors.
–I love Newsweek”s “Conventional Wisdom” column. This
week, George Bush earned an “up” arrow for his performance of,
now, two weeks ago. The accompanying comment read, “First
decent week since Philadelphia: survives Oprah and Susan Hawk.
Repeatablable?”
–118 died in a Chinese mine explosion, 113 more are missing.
Incredible as it may seem, over 2,700 have died there in similar
accidents during just the first six months of the year.
–Attention scientists. Major grant money may be available next
year as Congress is on the verge of increasing the National
Science Foundation”s 2001 budget allocation to $4.4 billion, or a
whopping $530 million more than 2000. Actually, just another
example of our already rapidly decreasing surplus.
–Frank Wills, the security guard who discovered the 1972 break-
in at the Watergate complex died this week. I have more on his
life in the 9/29 edition of “Bar Chat.” [See how the editor
employs this standard trick to encourage you to read something
else on the site?]
–One dollar gets you 665,000 Turkish lira…that”s .0000015.
–Former Canadian prime minister Pierre Trudeau passed away on
Thursday. Serving from 1968 to 1984 (with a 9-month
interruption), he was swept into office by “Trudeaumania.” His
greatest achievement was his successful struggle against the
Quebec separatist movement. He also dated Barbra Streisand and
married a flower child 30 years his junior.
–Back on March 6, 1999, the New York Times broke the story
that China had accelerated its nuclear weapons program with the
aid of stolen American secrets. The article eventually helped
break the case against Wen Ho-Lee. Now, with Dr. Lee”s
release, the Times has received quite a bit of heat.
This week, in an extraordinary page 2 summation of their
reportage, the Times admitted that the coverage could have been
more balanced. But, also, that the Chinese espionage issue will
not die. Stay tuned, as they themselves said.
–A British company has pioneered technology which uses
chicken and turkey droppings to create electricity. OPDEC is in
the future. The Organization for Poultry-Droppings Exporting
Countries.
–White House spokesman Joe Lockhart on Hillary”s excessive
use of the Lincoln bedroom for political fund-raising.
“It is a basic, common sense issue that your friends and people
who you would have come stay at your home would also, in some
instances, support your effort financially.” Common sense?!
Actually, I have two spare bedrooms…could be a real revenue
generator.
–Golf should be an Olympic sport. By the time you got to the
quarterfinals, it would be better than the Ryder Cup.
–What a joke Jack Valenti of the Motion Pictures Association is.
But here”s what I don”t get about the test marketing of R-rated
films to 9-year-olds that executives finally admitted to this week.
Where did they get the kids? Did they pick them up off the
streets? “Psst, hey kid. Want to see some sex and blood?”
Probably not. So what were the parents thinking allowing a 9-
year-old to go off with some weird types to watch some flicks?
“Mom, this guy wants me to watch some movies.”
“Sure, honey.”
–Al Gore on MTV the other day when asked the question,
“Paper or plastic?” “Gosh, I just never know!” Oh, c”mon. You
always take paper to use as a) your garbage bag, or b) for beer
cans.
Gold closed at $274
Oil, $30.84
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 6.08% 2-yr. 5.97% 10-yr. 5.80% 30-yr. 5.88%
[Fed meets on 10/3. No surprises expected.]
Returns for the week, 9/25-9/29
Dow Jones -1.8%
S&P 500 -0.8%
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +0.5%
Nasdaq -3.4%
Returns for the period, 1/1/00-9/29/00
Dow Jones -7.4%
S&P 500 -2.2%
S&P MidCap +21.2%
Russell 2000 +3.3%
Nasdaq -9.7&
Bulls 51.4%
Bears 28.0% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
CONTEST: Don”t forget to enter the “Pick the Dow” contest.
Your chance to win $2,500! Deadline is November 1st.
And, as always, I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
