[For the record, posted at 7:15 a.m.]
Wall Street
Well, as Jimmy Stewart said in the movie, “Shenandoah,”
“Ahh, n-n-now it concerns us.” And I”m not talking about the
election. It”s time to stop beating around the bush. What we
have witnessed in the Nasdaq is a CRASH!
And yet, there are jerks like the money manager I saw on
“Moneyline” Friday night who said, “Oh, I don”t know if this is a
bear market or not. I don”t believe in labels.” You”re right. It”s
not a bear. It”s a CRASH!
[This same guy, on a CNBC performance earlier in the year, was
foaming at the mouth about a stock which, today, is a $1. It will
all be part of the many books written on the great tech bubble.]
Folks, I know there is a ton of pain out there. But my job is to
report the action and give an opinion. And, quite frankly,
regarding the latter my running commentary on the market this
year has been pretty darn good.
What”s worrisome going forward is that because the Dow Jones
and the S&P 500 are still only off about 10% for the year, the
Federal Reserve may not think that the Nasdaq debacle warrants
them taking a closer look at the negative wealth effect.
But they have to understand that whether or not one, individually,
rode Yahoo from $250 to $40, or Priceline from $160 to $2,
virtually every American”s portfolio has suffered significant
damage by virtue of technology being a major holding in
heretofore successful mutual funds, whether in their personal
accounts or their 401(k).
And cash chases performance. If you are a holder of one of the
Janus funds, for example, to paraphrase the chief justice of the
Florida Supreme Court, you probably catch my drift.
Americans may still be feeling the benefits of full employment
(though this is about to change), but after the beating some of
their portfolios have taken, there is no way they are going on a
Christmas spending spree. True, it”s possible some selected
retailers will eke out holiday gains, but the scene will quickly shift
to a depressing January/February and beyond scenario.
Some of us have questioned whether Alan Greenspan is behind
the curve. The evidence of a sliding economy is mounting by the
day.
Manufacturing activity is, by many definitions, contracting
significantly; the pace of telecom spending next year is already
being projected to be the slowest since 1992 (plus many of these
very same companies have huge fixed debt loads…a major
problem); credit is increasingly hard to come by (and, as of
Friday, welcome Xerox to the category of “junk,” as so ordained
by a ratings agency); both individual and corporate America still
hold way too much debt; emerging markets are beginning to
quake in earnest (forget stock market returns which were already
abysmal in these parts…now you have real crises in Turkey,
Argentina, maybe Russia, again, and parts of Asia); the crucial
semi-conductor industry, as measured by its broadest index, has
collapsed; and, finally, as I have discussed before, watch out…the
value of your prize investment, your home, has peaked (or is
within a few months of doing so). The last item could be labeled
by naysayers as conjecture. The rest is fact.
But, if Greenspan moves aggressively to at least send a signal that
he”s prepared to lighten up on interest rates, we may still be able
to avert a full-blown recession. But geezuz, man, time”s a
wastin”!
The Federal Reserve meets on December 19 and they will have
the advantage of seeing crucial data on producer and consumer
prices, retail sales, industrial production and the latest
employment report before they convene.
One would hope, though, that Greenspan”s staff has a few
common sense folks like my friend Mark R., a man who has been
in the brokerage industry 20 years and knows how to do his
homework. Mark called all excited the other day with bad news
(that”s why we get along so well).
“Brian, there are now 22 Tahoes in the dealer”s lot! A few weeks
ago there were 18. The product isn”t moving!” [He”s been
updating me on this particular story for months.]
Folks, it”s really that simple. You don”t always have to wait for a
DaimlerChrysler to announce that they are slashing production
20% (as they did on Friday), with the obvious implication for
layoffs, or, at best, extended holidays.
As Americans, we have enjoyed the fruits of our labor and we all
deserve a pat on the back for our efforts in creating the great
boom of the ”90s. But it”s over. While Greenspan can still
somewhat bail us out, allow me to echo some advice I gave last
summer. Pay off as much debt as you can and hold off on
frivolous purchases, including suspect stocks.
[Yes, if everyone followed this advise, that would exacerbate the
slowdown. But I also know that only intelligent folks read this
site, ergo, that”s your edge.]
—
The action this week was scary, to say the least, but I”ll keep
from overloading you with numbers since they would look very
similar to those from last week, particularly on the individual
stock side.
What I can add is that the Nasdaq fell another 9% to close at
2645, its lowest level in over a year. On Thursday, at one point
the index was off 50% from its high of 5048 set last March 10.
The Dow Jones continued to show its resilience (and, long-time
readers will recall that the Dow”s performance has not been an
issue with me), finishing off just 0.9% to end the week at 10373.
Back to the Nasdaq, one figure the press may not pick up on is
for the 3-month period, 9/1-12/1. September 1st, you may
remember, wrapped up a 5-week winning streak for both the
Dow and the Nasdaq, with the Nasdaq finishing that Friday at
4234. That means it has dropped 38% since then. Absolutely
staggering. And it was on 9/1 that many of the Street”s shills
were saying we”re once again off to the races.
Bonds, however, have rocked and rolled, as the market is
anticipating Fed action on interest rates, soon. It is already
pricing in a rate cut, if not two, and the long end of the Treasury
curve exhibits yields not seen since May 1999. This, obviously,
means that mortgage rates are falling anew, crucial if we are to
avoid a total economic collapse. As for corporate bonds, that”s
another story. It”s a flight to quality…Treasuries. Corporates are
suffering…part of my earlier credit crunch discussion.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 5.91% 2-yr. 5.61% 10-yr. 5.51% 30-yr. 5.64%
Finally, yes, the greatest damage to the equity market averages
may have been done, for now. And, you”ve undoubtedly noticed
I haven”t even mentioned the election. The market is assuming
this all gets settled shortly, before we see Congress having to step
into the breach (which would be an unmitigated disaster). Wall
Street deserves a nice little relief rally. You know…Peace on
Earth, Goodwill to Men…all that stuff. When it”s over, just
make sure you refocus on the fundamentals. Even if you don”t
like what you see.
Street Bytes
–Back on September 23 and October 14, I described my
problems with Gateway and a purchase of my first Gateway PC.
I was incredulous that my brand new hard drive was broken; one
of 73 such problems at the store from which the computer was
bought. This is Peter Lynch “Investing 101.” If the product
sucks, there”s probably something deeper going on.
Well, lo and behold, Gateway shocked the Street by announcing
that its 4th quarter results will be far below expectations and it
pointed to miserable sales for the Thanksgiving weekend. The
stock then collapsed (and was down 63% for the month of
November). While you will never read the following as a reason
for the sales slump, I submit that poor product quality may have
something to do with Gateway”s performance.
–Oil: Wow, this is one complicated story this week. The stocks
were crushed, midweek, even though oil was holding at the $35
level. To the layman, it probably didn”t make too much sense.
But valuation concerns have been creeping into the sector and,
even though the price of crude was still very high, the consensus
suddenly developed that there was a crash, both in the stocks as
well as petrol, just around the corner.
So it was bombs away, particularly for the oil drillers and services
companies. Yours truly got stopped out of his longest -running
winner and I”m now 60% cash, with almost all of the balance still
in energy issues. [When you get a good one, always set stops as
it is running up. It prevents you from one thing. Being stupid.]
What happened? First off, the oil market has been roiled by
ongoing inventory and supply issues. On the positive side, more
crude has been reaching our shores and the inventory picture, at
least temporarily, has improved a bit. On the negative side, you
have supply disruptions from Iraq, which is demanding a
surcharge (in direct contravention of U.N. sanctions) to load up in
their ports, and Nigeria, where they can”t keep the people from
poking holes in oil pipelines. In the latter case, another 60 were
killed by a massive fire and explosion caused by a woman cooking
in the open as oil spread from a leak. The fire is near the nation”s
largest fuel depot. [I just have to add that locals tap into the
pipeline and then sell the oil in the lucrative black market.]
And then you have the junior weather forecasters who seem to be
dominating the trading pits. [If I was there, I”d be one of them.]
But geezuz, one day there are fears of a cold spell and, literally,
two days later, people are talking about moderating temperatures.
It keeps one from looking at the Big Picture.
Finally, on Friday, some real rational behavior took hold. Oil fell
$2…and the stocks rose. I have written for months that as an
investor I want $25 oil. And I want it to sit there for years.
Obviously, a tall order. I”m hoping that what happened on Friday
is the realization that eventually (by next spring) there will be
enough crude to satisfy all parties, at a price where the producers
still make a great buck, with the refiners and drillers turning
record profits, and the world economy avoiding recession. That”s
my real Christmas wish for 2001.
–Internet Industry: November set a record for job losses (8,800),
bringing the year-to-date total to 31,000.
Separately, an influential analyst issued a report in which he had
negative comments on the future of Internet advertising. No
kidding! Get it into your heads, Wall Street and Corporate
America. No one clicks through banner ads! It is an incredible
waste of money, as currently structured. [Eventually, the prices
will come down so far that even yours truly may take a second
look.]
A consumer survey gave e-commerce outfits mediocre grades for
customer service (Amazon being an exception), obviously not a
good thing when this is supposed to be a selling point. AOL
received very poor marks, and with good cause.
And a follow-up to my comments of last week on e-Stamps. This
week they announced they were laying off 30% of their workers
and will no longer offer online postage. On Thursday, the stock
dropped below the value of a first-class stamp to 28 cents.
–The euro rebounded strongly this week as investors began to
realize that the U.S. economy may be sliding faster than Europe”s.
I have tried not to make too much of the impact of a falling dollar,
particularly on our equity markets. This is part of everyone”s
doomsday scenario and people have been talking about it for
years. I”m willing to be wrong on this one. If the U.S. truly hits
the skids, the rest of the world will follow…and the dollar will
once again be the place to ride out the storm. I also reserve the
right to change my opinion.
Plus, the euro deserves a nice rebound, after all of the trouble it
has seen.
–You can put this in the “For what it”s worth” category. 8 of the
last 10 Decembers have been “Up” ones for the Dow Jones.
December is tied with April as the best month of the past 50
years. Regarding the S&P 500, December stands alone as #1.
[Source: Stock Trader”s Almanac…sorry, no similar figures for
the Nasdaq. But, seasonally, technology is normally strong as
well.]
–The merger between Chase and J.P. Morgan will result in 5,000
layoffs, not 3,000 as initially estimated. And the good cheer will
be spread over the coming weeks. The tough part is that when
the deal was announced, the job picture on Wall Street was still
solid. It is now easy to see that changing rapidly.
–Goldman”s Abby Cohen issued “All Clear” signal #846.
–G.E. selected 44-year-old Jeffrey Immelt to succeed legend Jack
Welch at the end of 2001. I decided to turn the position down.
–Boeing is seeing soaring orders for its 777 jet airliner. I just
hope the workers take their time. “Hey, Bob. Where did you say
this wire went?”
–Why you should care about any political or economic turmoil in
Asia: 19% of U.S. exports go to the region; an additional 8% to
Japan.
The Election
I have to admit, folks, it”s been more than a little frustrating to
sit down and write this piece the last few Friday nights. I have to
worry about each ruling”s potential to make my comments moot.
Thankfully, this was a relatively slow week, compared to the
cataclysmic events of the prior two. Of course, that will change
in a big way when both the U.S. Supreme Court and Judge Sauls
rule, the latter with regards to the disputed ballots.
And I must say that it was incredibly impressive to listen to the
oral arguments at the High Court on Friday. But it does kind of
make one feel small, intellectually. [Never stop reading, listening,
and learning, mused the editor.] We now await the verdict.
But there is the issue of Al Gore and his comments on Monday
night.
“This is America. When votes are cast, we count them. [Except
in Seminole County, eh Al?] We don”t arbitrarily set them aside
because it”s too difficult to count them…
[Well, we run them through machines, Al, and if they don”t
register either, a) the voter didn”t want to vote for president and,
let”s face it, you and George W. weren”t exactly scintillating
choices or, b) the voter was a moron and didn”t punch through
the chad.]
“If we ignore the votes of thousands in Florida in this election,
how can you or any American have confidence that your vote will
not be ignored in a future election?”
Well, I accept that there may be a certain amount of fraud or
chicanery with every vote. And nowhere is it said that the
Constitution guarantees a perfect election. Or, as columnist
Michael Kelly wrote regarding Gore”s last statement, “Yes, if the
courts do not give Gore what he wants, then not only is this
election suspect, so are all future elections.”
Kelly continues, “Democrats accuse Republicans of seeking to
delegitimize a Gore presidency. Gore seeks more; if he doesn”t
get his way he threatens to delegitimize Democracy itself. Got to
burn that village down.”
Believe it or not, however, I”m not quite as pessimistic. When
you watched the performance of strong, seasoned leaders like
Dick Cheney and Colin Powell this week, I think the vast
majority, over and above those who voted for Bush, will quickly
accept a Bush administration. We”re talking quality. But Kelly is
also right. There is going to be a hard-core 20% or so who will
do everything in their power to make it miserable for the rest of
us.
I have other comments on the past week in politics in random
musings but here are a few other thoughts and facts.
–There were 1.2 million “undervotes” across America. That”s
normal. Don”t complain.
–Both Gore and George W. looked awful last week. Ronald
Reagan didn”t get the label “Great Communicator” for nothing.
–House Minority Whip David Bonior said of the undercounted
votes in Miami-Dade. “All 10,000 fought for our country, are
taking care of our parents, or are Holocaust survivors.” Bonior,
of course, will be part of the above referenced 20%.
–And regarding the Miami-Dade disputed votes, the argument
has been put forward by Democrats, “Wouldn”t it be awful if,
under the Freedom of Information Act, we learned later that Al
Gore actually won?” Guess who is responsible for the Freedom
of Information Act? Ralph Nader.
International Affairs
Middle East: Prime Minister Barak is in deep trouble, though he
did manage to escape a no-confidence vote in the Israeli
parliament. But, in order to avoid this, Barak had to acquiesce to
an early election (probably May 2001), two years ahead of
schedule.
Barak”s popularity continues to plummet and now he is
scrambling to forge a peace agreement with the Palestinians,
viewing this as his only way of survival. So he offered up a new
deal to Arafat and Company which would recognize an
independent Palestinian state but would also put off the issue of
Jerusalem for, as he put it, “one, two, or three years.” Needless
to say, the Palestinians said, “No thank you.”
Barak not only faces an election fight from hardliner Sharon or,
more likely, Netanyahu, but he may also be challenged from
within his own Labor Party.
Meanwhile, it got zero press here but at least 6 more Palestinians
were killed in clashes this week.
Venezuela / Colombia: Your editor has been all over this one.
Both countries recalled their ambassadors this week as
Venezuelan officials met with Colombian rebels recently. It”s no
secret that Venezuela has dealings with the FARC forces but
what was so bad is that the rebel meeting in Caracus was a blatant
“in your face” to the Colombian government. [It would be like
Washington hosting the Chiapas rebels of Mexico.]
And Colombia has complained of further incursions into its
territory by Venezuelan army forces. Venezuela”s President
Chavez will make his move by 2002.
Serbia / Balkans: As a follow-up to last week, we were very close
to a major confrontation over Kosovo on Sunday night as Serbian
President Kostunica demanded NATO live up to its commitment
to stop the violence that had seen ethnic-Albanians crossing into
Serbia from Kosovo. For now, Kostunica is satisfied NATO will
tighten the border. The president is in a huge bind as the
December 23rd parliamentary elections draw near. And there was
Slobodan Milosevic, once again in public as head of the Socialist
Party, telling those who would listen (admittedly, a vastly reduced
number), “The war which is being conducted against this country
is now being conducted with Western money.” Slobo is only at
8% in the polls. But if he were to draw, say, 15%, he”s once
again a player…amazingly.
And this rather disturbing note. Police in Amsterdam are
beginning to panic over the sudden infiltration of Turkish and
Balkan gangs, who are literally carving up the city. The Turks
control the illegal immigrant trade, while the Balkan gangs
control the drug and arms trade. Multiple gangland killings have
been the result in this normally peaceful city.
But here is the real concern. Police also say the Balkan gangs
control a weapons cache rivaling “something from a James Bond
movie.” Investigators are convinced the weapons will be used for
major terrorist attacks throughout Europe. The police, however,
are fighting back, with massive raids having taken place in the
past few weeks. Root for the good guys!
Romania: This forsaken place held a highly significant election
last week. In keeping with my theory that Europe is slowly
slipping into another dark period, an ultra-nationalist, anti-
Semitic, anti-immigrant, charismatic figure by the name of
Corneliu “Vadim” Tudor took 27% of the vote for president.
Vadim, as he likes to be called, is now in a runoff with an ex-
Communist ally of Ceaucescu.
Now while 99% of Americans (those of non-Romanian
extraction, at least) couldn”t care less, I guarantee you Romania”s
immediate neighbors are concerned and it doesn”t bode well for
the region. One analyst on the scene said, “This election showed
Romania is ready to be carried out on a stretcher.” And Romania
is in the process of applying for E.U. membership! Hel-loo!
What is really worrisome, from a Big Picture standpoint, is the
fact that Vadim received the bulk of his votes from the less
educated and the young. This is the pattern for similar
movements throughout Europe. A generation of young people,
ignorant of World War II, is filled with intolerance and hatred for
foreigners.
Iraq: Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz was touring all those great
places like Russia, China, and Syria this week, trying to garner
support for the formal lifting of U.N. sanctions. He later returned
to Baghdad on an Iraqi Airlines flight, in direct defiance, once
again, of those very restrictions. Of course, not a peep from the
U.N. or the U.S. And, now that the Gulf War coalition is
officially dead, Syria”s President Bashar Assad will likely travel,
himself, to Baghdad, making him the first Syrian leader to do so
in over 20 years. Which means one thing. The players are all
getting in place for what they assume will be one final battle…
against Israel.
Iran: President Khatami, the moderate the Western world pinned
their hopes on 3 and a half years ago, admitted that he is
powerless to enact any real reforms due to the still overwhelming
power of the hardliners. Khatami may opt out of running for
reelection which would be a big blow to the West.
Indonesia: 50 died in renewed fighting between Muslims and
Christians in the Spice Islands. Muslims are forcing Christians to
convert to Islam and killing those who refuse. Such lovely
people.
Ireland: This is a textbook case of rising expectations and coming
labor turmoil. GDP growth is expected to hit a staggering 10.5%
this year, but inflation is running at 7%. The public unions
(transportation, education) are locked into wage increases of up
to 5% as part of long-term concessions they granted the
government when things weren”t quite so rosy. It”s payback time
for the unions and intermittent strikes are beginning to have an
impact.
And since I have described the boom in general terms more than
once in this space, I thought you might find the following
interesting; particularly if you”re Irish.
The population of Ireland is now 3.8 million, the highest level
since 1881. And immigrants outnumbered those who are leaving
for the 5th year in a row, 42,300 to 18,200.
Canada: Well, Prime Minister Chretien”s gamble paid off as he
received his usual 41% of the vote in last week”s election, thus
becoming the longest serving Western leader, once President
Clinton leaves office (a big ”if”). Chretien”s Liberal Party picked
up enough seats in Parliament to have a solid majority. My friend
Harry K. is distraught. It”s okay, Harry. You can always defect!
And bring some Labatt”s Blue while you”re at it.
Mexico: Vicente Fox was sworn in on Friday, the first president
not to hail from the PRI in 70 years. Fox will be my “Hott
Spotts” subject for 12/7. And there will be a lot more on Mexico
in this space over the coming months. But hopefully not too
much. That wouldn”t be a good sign.
Global Climate Conference: I have an extensive look at the
collapse of global warming talks in my “Hott Spotts” link. The
participants were looking to follow the “Kyoto Protocols” of
1997, which would have required a 5% cut in developed nations”
1990 emission levels by 2012. Bottom line, the coalition of rich
nations, led by the U.S., and including our great friends up north,
wanted to make sure they weren”t railroaded into an agreement
that would decimate their economies. So when push came to
shove, the Greenies of Europe balked at an agreement. Said
Greenpeace:
“This meeting will be remembered as the moment when
governments abandoned the promise of global cooperation to
protect Planet Earth.”
[As an aside, speaking of global warming and the crazy weather
which seems to have accompanied it worldwide, the past few
years, Britain recorded its wettest autumn since they started
keeping records in 1727! Which means they know what the
weather was like on specific dates in 1843, for instance, when
Charles Dickens was writing “A Christmas Carol.”…..I can”t be
the only one who is fascinated by this!]
Random Musings…the unabridged version
–U.S. News reports that Navy brass are still “guffawing” over the
request from a White House advance staffer to move the USS
Eisenhower aircraft carrier before President Clinton spoke at a
memorial service for returning members of the Cole. The aide
thought an open horizon would make for a better background for
photos than the hull of a ship. Needless to say, the Navy said no.
–Due to the deteriorating health picture in Russia, only 30% of
Russian births in the past year were classified as “normal.” That”s
absolutely sick.
–The Wall Street Journal reports that Priceline.com founder Jay
Walker may have violated federal or state labor laws when he laid
off 80% of the employees at Walker Digital, Mr. Walker”s “think
tank.” [“I think I”ll lose $100 million today…I think I have a
stupid business model.”] Connecticut”s Attorney General
Richard Blumenthal (who should have been able to run for Joe
Lieberman”s Senate seat, by the way) said Federal law requires
companies to give 60 days notice if more than 30% of the work
force is terminated. Evidently, Walker gave most of those laid off
no notice nor severance packages. That, my friends, is an -ssh-l-.
Care to buy a vowel?
–Albert Gore Jr., aka “Speed Racer,” did not accompany his
parents to church last week. Yes, it”s best to keep this wild man
out of the spotlight. [Note to new readers. I never got on
Chelsea”s case. But this kid is fair game.]
–In a federally funded study, 1 in 10 teenagers said they drank
alcohol weekly. 1 in 4 smoked cigarettes in the last month. Also,
60% of juniors and seniors said they were sexually active. [Black
teens, at 67%, were more likely than white teens, 47%, to engage
in such behavior.]
–Jack Wheeler is a former CIA man and global strategist who
seems to have captured the political scene correctly.
“Republicans are like Charlie Brown, always surprised when Lucy
Democrats pretend to hold the football and pull it away when
Charlie tries to kick it.”
–Thomas Friedman is the New York Times” foreign policy expert
and I have given him the benefit of the doubt from time to time
because he often writes of issues dear to my heart. But he is
growing quite tiresome, witness the following from a recent
column.
“During the post-election…we have seen a Republican Party
dominated by elderly white men and women…”
And the other side offers what, Mr. Friedman?
–Two weeks ago, I wrote of the growing drumbeat among many
Black Americans for reparations. Last Sunday, the topic was the
lead story on the CBS “Sunday Morning” program. Boy, I hope
cooler heads prevail. This really could be ugly.
–Speaking of the Republicans inability to garner a share of the
black vote, Jonathan Tiloven wrote a piece for the Newhouse
News Service that is quite telling. For starters, Tiloven cites a
Zogby poll that shows that 60% of black Gore voters would
consider a Bush presidency “stolen.”
And here are quotes from two African American professors
regarding the current election situation.
“(Republicans) are hijacking the election; all the evidence to me
suggests it was rigged.”
Another said that under a Bush presidency, George W. “would
have to go beyond Powell and Rice to create a diverse
administration.”
Thank goodness a man by the name of Alvin Williams, director of
a Republican-oriented black political action committee, sees the
light.
“Powell and Rice – my God, this is a golden start. Those two
appointments alone would be historic and cannot be brushed
aside.”
In a pre-election poll conducted by University of Chicago and
Harvard professors, George Bush had a 67% “unfavorable” rating
among blacks vs. a 9% unfavorable for Al Gore. [Bill Clinton”s
unfavorable was 6%…which, referring to the above study on
black teenagers and their sexual permissiveness, makes a lot of
sense, right? Actually, he didn”t do much for white teens, either,
come to think of it.]
I don”t know what the answer is for Republicans. You try and
bring up issues that you think Black America would care about,
like the catastrophe that is Africa, and there is zero interest. No,
it”s just too easy for Jackson, Sharpton, Rangel, et al to play the
race-baiting card instead. It”s getting more than worrisome, and,
consequently, I need to keep reporting on it.
–My state of New Jersey really does have a lot of dirtballs.
About 5 years ago, we had handed out 7,000 disabled motorist
stickers, allowing the user to take advantage of handicapped
parking spots (of which there are way too many, by the way).
Well, it hasn”t taken my fellow citizens long to figure out that the
state doesn”t check the applications at all. So guess how many
have the sticker today? Try 300,000.
–Let me tell you, I know my Chex Mix and, folks, this new
Honey Nut Chex Mix is absolutely awesome. It could be the new
product of the year.
–How sick are you of showboating in football? It just gets worse
and worse.
–Danielle Crittenden wrote a brilliant piece in the Wall Street
Journal, excoriating those of her sisters who have blasted Florida
Secretary of State Katherine Harris for her “bad clothes,”
“excessive makeup,” etc.
To Ms. Harris, you have my full support. And I actually got
goose bumps when you certified George W.”s victory on Sunday.
–I have to admit, though, last Saturday night I needed a break
from all of the election coverage. So I flipped on Emeril.
“So we cut the butter (hmmm…butter…) into squares so we can
work it into the flour…and that”s when we add the grated white
cheese…[He was actually making crackers]…And remember,
always work the dough from the sides of the bowl to the middle.”
Thanks, Emeril. I needed that.
–Another sign of the coming apocalypse, those new Ralph
Lauren commercials for Polo.com. Have you ever seen anything
more pretentious in your life? Plus you just know everyone in the
spot is a coke fiend.
–And another Dirtball Update, from the good folks at
StocksandNews. Only 46% of those who downloaded Stephen
King”s e-book paid up. [It was on the honor system.] And
King, himself, qualifies as a dirtball for canceling the book in mid-
stream.
–I wrote about this months ago but it looks like it”s now coming
to fruition. U.S. officials may soon be forced to allow Mexican
truckers on our highways as part of a separate NAFTA-related
agreement. Head for the side roads, citizens!
–The following is for my good friend, Dan L., at PIMCO, who is
the only person I know who has memorized every single episode
of “Seinfeld.” Dan, this is a true story.
According to Sports Illustrated, the Baltimore Ravens football
coach Brian Billick is so superstitious he has banned the use of
the word “playoffs” by anyone in the organization. Now the
Ravens have already received the NFL”s permission to sell playoff
tickets, so the workers have been calling the postseason
“festivus.” [Frank Costanza”s holiday.]
–Hey, these new Chia Pets are pretty spiffy! I bet they”d sell
even more if they had models for Jason and Bernie from “Room
222.”
–The Wall Street Journal says the singing Billy Bass novelty is
wearing thin. See, I told you that would happen if they didn”t add
to the repertoire, “Well I”m proud, to be, an Americannn!”
Gold closed at $272…finally, a little rally. And remember, boys
and girls, gold shares move much more than the actual price of
bullion. [Both ways, mind you.]
Oil, $32.02
Returns for the week, 11/27-12/1
Dow Jones -0.9%
S&P 500 -2.0%
S&P MidCap -2.1%
Russell 2000 -3.2%
Nasdaq -8.9%
Returns for the period, 1/1/00-12/1/00
Dow Jones -9.8%
S&P 500 -10.5%
S&P MidCap +10.3%
Russell 2000 -9.5%
Nasdaq -35.0%
Bulls 55.1% [Yes, incredibly complacent.]
Bears 29.0% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week! I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
