For the week, 12/18-12/22

For the week, 12/18-12/22

“The Grinch got a wonderful, awful idea.”

–Dr. Seuss

“Eroding consumer confidence, reports of substantial shortfalls in

sales and earnings, and stress in some segments of the financial

markets suggest that economic growth may be slowing further.”

–Statement from the Federal Reserve, 12/19

Now some of us have been questioning whether the Fed has been

behind the curve, in other words, do they get it? The above

statement would certainly lead one to believe that Alan Greenspan

and Company finally do, right?

Wrong. Greenspan, a k a The Grinch, reportedly does some of

his heavy thinking while in the bathtub. So he must have been

sitting there, Tuesday morning, when it suddenly hit him:

Why I”ll tell them I get it, of that there will be no debate.

But I”ll jerk them around, and I won”t cut their rates!

The markets may snarl, they may even crash.

Hell, I might as well take their last can of Who hash!

[With apologies to Ted Geisel]

Yes, it”s all pretty clear this was a rather stressful week before

Christmas. The rancor in Washington picked up as Clinton

administration officials began to complain that President-elect

Bush et al were “talking down the economy.” But to cite that

great economist, Jack Nicholson, “You can”t handle the truth!”

Geezuz. The Fed, supposedly the nation”s expert on such

matters, spelled it out for you. The slowdown is all too real.

But I will admit the Democrats were right on one thing. Talking

down the economy does have an effect and the media, as they are

wont to do in such matters, is all too happy to oblige.

This was a big week in my book because you began to see a ton

of network stories on the rapidly deteriorating economic picture.

And yes, while none of this should be a surprise to you readers,

the saturation coverage does begin to affect the confidence of the

average consumer. And consumer confidence is what it”s all

about, Charlie Brown.

Plus, by week”s end there were more and more stories giving

anecdotal evidence of a worldwide slowdown, despite the rosy

forecasts of economists (see ”Street Bytes”).

As for the action in the equity markets this week, Nasdaq suffered

another crash, falling 23% in the 7-day stretch ending

Wednesday. Virtually every major technology name you can

think of saw a new 52-week low. And at the close on

Wednesday, the Nasdaq itself was 54% off its all-time high set

March 10.

But Santa did show up at long last. He really is a helluva guy,

isn”t he? I mean just when you think Cisco, Sun Micro, and

Microsoft are going to zero, Santa found a little extra cash for the

elves – remember those old-fashioned Christmas savings

accounts? Santa controls them, you know – and they worked

their butts off to salvage the week. And you”d probably make

some good money at the local tavern asking patrons to guess

where the Dow Jones ended…up! 1.9% to close at 10635. The

Nasdaq, however, did still decline 5% to 2516, its lowest weekly

close in well over a year.

[Friday was another typical Nasdaq barn-burner; the 5th best day

ever, meaning that the index has now had 9 of its 10 best days

ever…in a down 38% year.]

All of the corporate news was negative (specifics covered later),

and it”s very clear that for retailers it will be the worst holiday

shopping season since the last century (sorry), 1990 to be exact.

While this weekend should be brisk at the malls, mainly because

the weather should hold up, I”m sure we”ll hear lots of damage

reports this coming week…and I”ll have them all for you next

weekend.

But in my ongoing effort to supply you with discussion topics for

your holiday parties (I”m assuming you attend some where you”re

begging to be shown the door), allow me to let you know what”s

really on my mind

Chairman Greenspan obviously has an eye on the overseas

economic situation. Aside from reports that Europe”s Christmas

season has been a solid one, he can”t possibly see a lot of cheer

elsewhere around the world.

America is, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, the

driver of the global economy. If we slide into recession, Asia and

Latin America crash, most of Europe stumbles badly, OPEC”s

Arab nations are besieged with internal strife because of

plummeting oil (no demand), and Africa goes “Yoh, anyone

there?”

Oh yeah, Canada. Well, they”re part of us anyway. We take

them down too.

Greenspan missed an opportunity this week to send a strong

message that we aren”t abandoning everyone else. True, he may

very well cut rates before the January 30-31 Fed meeting, and our

markets may soar, briefly, on the news, but, as you”ve

undoubtedly heard, even if you don”t have CNBC on all day (I

envy those of you who don”t), it takes 6-9 months for rate cuts to

work their way through the economy. Ergo, it”s already too late.

America is about to be tested. A recession here would be a

disaster globally. And because we”re now all interconnected, the

great American model would then be seen as a failure. Anti-

Americanism, anti-globalization sentiments would soar. And

protectionism would abound with trade wars a given.

Think of this. Remember that figure I listed last week on the

flood of European investment into U.S. assets the past 18

months? It”s all underwater. In many cases, by considerable

sums. You think they”re happy? Could they repatriate their

funds, what remains of them? Of course. And I hope I proved

my point without having to bring up the impact of a sliding dollar

(which would be one result of such cash flows).

So I leave you all with a few final words on Alan Greenspan,

courtesy of Dr. Seuss.

And the last thing he took was the log for the fire,

On the walls he left nothing but some hooks and some wire.

But he hadn”t stopped Christmas from coming…it came, just the

same.

And from your editor, to that last sentiment, Amen.

Street Bytes

–I would like to recognize a few Wall Street professionals who

“got it right” when it came to the Nasdaq Bubble of ”99-”00.

Doug Cliggott / J.P. Morgan, who for a major Wall Street player

was amazingly cautious and forthright; Vince Farrell, an

institutional money manager and “old-timer” on the Street (sorry,

Vince), who consistently delivers the most cogent information

when he is guest host on CNBC”s “Squawk Box;” and the much-

maligned David Tice, manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, who

was mocked for his prediction earlier in the year that the Nasdaq

would crash to 2500 when it was climbing to 5000. However,

while the first two remain cautious going forward, Tice is on

record as saying the Nasdaq will hit 1000 next year. Ah, we

don”t want to go there.

–2001 Forecasts: The most consistent analyst over the years has

been Laszlo Birinyi. He turned cautious at the height of the tech

bubble and was pretty good the rest of the year. For 2001,

Birinyi sees a Nasdaq of 3450 by year end. And he recommends

30% cash. [Source: Business Week]

A consensus of 38 strategists calls for 12/31/01, yields marks of

12015 on the Dow, 1560 for the S&P 500, and 3580 on the

Nasdaq. I”ll state my own targets next week. [Now what did I

do with my tarot cards?]

Business Week”s survey of 54 economists deduces that GDP

growth in 2001 will be 3.1% with a 2.5% CPI. Hey, if that turns

out to be the case we”re alright. Not back off to the races, mind

you, but no worse than muddle through.

Coincidentally, the World Bank is forecasting 3.2% growth in ”01

for both the U.S. and the euro-zone. [2.1% in Japan.]

So chill out, Mr. Editor…mused the readership. Ahh, but your

editor often has a clearer head than these “experts.”

–Bonds had another spectacular week. There is no doubt that

the rate picture for Treasuries is a huge positive going forward.

It can certainly help prop up what may otherwise be a teetering

real estate market. [It”s teetering.]

U.S. Treasury Yields

1-yr. 5.26% 2-yr. 5.07% 10-yr. 5.00% 30-yr. 5.40%

–In researching my current “Wall Street History” piece on

General Motors, I came across the following fact. Total spending

on advertising in America crossed $3 billion for the first time in

1925. It didn”t see that level again until 1946. So when you read

all these projections on how ad spending will keep rising, despite

the dot-com crash and a general slowdown, don”t necessarily

believe it. This little nugget opened my eyes wide open.

–Mexico / Mount Popocatepetl. Now why would I place

Mexico”s Mount “Popo” volcano under “Street Bytes?” One

simple reason. I”m astounded how the news media doesn”t seem

to understand just how serious this situation could be. [I did see

a little piece in the London Times; they get it.]

Folks, if Mount Popo really blows (not the little eruption that

occurred last week…but a full-blown one) it could have a

catastrophic impact on the world economy. This is no

exaggeration. Mount Popo is viewed as the most dangerous

volcano in the world and scientists believe it could be the biggest

eruption in 1200 years!

People forget that when Krakatoa erupted, the weather across the

globe was impacted for over 2 years. Crops were devastated.

Stay tuned.

–Energy: Let”s start off this week with a quote from legendary

oil man, T. Boone Pickens.

“After 50 years in the oil and gas business, I”d like to reminisce

about America”s comprehensive energy policy. Sadly, I can”t

recall what”s never been.” [Source: Robert Hershey / New York

Times]

In 1973, we relied on foreign sources for our energy needs to the

tune of 36%. Today, it”s 56-58%.

And, once again, the energy markets were all over the board this

week. You can no longer just ask, what did crude do? and have

the response be all that meaningful. For example, oil plummeted

to levels not seen since last April, yet natural gas rocketed to new

all-time highs. Oil inventories are being replenished, quickly,

while our increasingly dependent natural gas economy is being

pummeled by the arctic weather over the midsection of the

country. Now most of us can afford to pay our energy bills

without it affecting our lifestyles, but my heart goes out to folks

like the Chicago woman I saw on TV who is paying $250 to heat

her apartment. Obviously, this uses up her discretionary income

and economists who don”t plug such factors into their models do

so at their own risk.

But back to crude. Oil now stands smack in the middle of

OPEC”s $22-$28 price band. The dissension in the ranks must be

rampant. Member nations Iran, Kuwait, Libya and Indonesia all

called for production cuts next month (the OPEC meeting is

January 17).

So with this backdrop, as crude plummeted, my beloved drillers

and service companies” share prices rose. Go figure. I had. The

stocks rallied, after a long dry spell while oil was hanging out at

$35, because Wall Street recognized that this is one sector that

should at least meet earnings expectations, while 90% of the

other market sectors are disappointing, and, assuming OPEC

sticks to their discipline next year, money can be made in this

group.

Finally, though, on a personal note, I have told you that my big

concern was global growth…or lack thereof. I have warned for

months that $35 oil was hitting economies both large and small.

With oil now back to reasonable levels, there is a chance we can

stave off recession in the developing world (a slight one). But I

have an itchy trigger finger with regards to my own portfolio,

which still stands at about 60% cash, 40% energy.

–Humorist Joe Queenan on the dot-com bubble: “It was the

Edsel, the DeLorean and the Ponzi all rolled into one.”

–Barron”s Gene Epstein (12/18) had a piece wherein he

postulated that IF a recession hits, looking at past downturns, the

damage is done for the stock market when the S&P 500 rallies

10% off its lows. But, as Mr. Epstein points out, the tough part

is predicting when the recession starts.

This week, PIMCO”s Bill Gross said, “Manufacturing may

already be in recession at the moment.”

–Maybe the Fed still needs to be vigilant on the inflation front

after all. It”s been almost two years since I left PIMCO, so last

summer, having used up my health benefits under Cobra, I found

a policy that met my needs at a greatly reduced cost. Back to

premium lager, I mused. That is, until yesterday. I just received

a notice that my new premium is going up a staggering 21% next

year. Drat!

–Corporate layoffs: It”s a recession for these folks already.

Gillette is shaving 2,700 jobs while Aetna announced it would cut

5,000 (though it said 50% would be through attrition…meaning

age 52 is the new retirement age there).

–Xerox continues to implode. This week they said the company

had exhausted its $7 billion line of credit. They claimed,

however, that they still had about $1.5 billion in cash. That”s

obviously peanuts for a corporation this size. So you better stock

up on toner for that copier. You may find it hard to get before

long.

–And then there is Lucent and AT&T, those New Jersey titans

whose headquarters are near my home. It”s sad…and tragic.

And it”s the fault of management, both past and present. This

week, Ma Bell cut its dividend for the first time in its history.

Virtually every pension plan in America holds this piece of

garbage.

International Affairs

Middle East: Well, Prime Minister Barak”s gambit of calling for

an early election is working thus far. Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu

would have been his primary opponent in the upcoming February

election, and Netanyahu had a substantial lead in the polls.

But Bibi dropped out, even after Parliament passed a law that

would have allowed him to run (a necessary pre-condition since

he was not a current member of the Knesset). Netanyahu refused

to run unless a new Parliament was elected at the same time and

the Knesset refused to disband.

So now it”s Barak vs. Ariel Sharon, with the withdrawal of

former Prime Minister Peres on Thursday. But Barak needs a

peace treaty and both sides are scrambling to come up with

something before Clinton leaves office. The Palestinians can thus

sit back and play hardball, knowing how desperate Barak is.

Russia: A few tidbits this week.

While in Cuba, President Putin did compliment President-elect

Bush on the foreign policy team he was assembling. But did you

know the Russians still have 1,500 military technicians in Cuba

monitoring an eavesdropping facility? That”s why when I discuss

my theory that Putin was responsible for the summer ”99

apartment bombings in Moscow that precipitated the second

Chechen war, I do it in writing.

Putin then went from Cuba to Canada, where he got Prime

Minister Chretien to agree that the 1972 ABM Treaty should

remain intact, which would make our missile defense plans rather

difficult since they violate the accord. Thank you Monsieur

Chretien…for nothing. Speaking of Putin, an analyst on the

scene said, “By bringing the diplomatic offensive into America”s

backyard, he is playing a weakened hand very deftly.”

Carey Goldberg and Sophia Kishkovsky had a sad piece in the

New York Times on the state of healthcare in Russia. They

featured the city of Kostroma (pop. 280,000), about an 8-hour

drive from Moscow. A Dr. Klesarev, who works at the hospital,

earns $115 / month for his 70-80 hour weeks. He”s lucky. The

average base pay for a doctor is only $30 / month! Folks, this

isn”t even Third World stuff. So you might be asking, then why

do we spend so much time worrying about Russia? Because they

have nukes and a very dark past.

Meanwhile, the Chechens have been having their way. At least

another 19 Russian soldiers were killed this week.

And then there is the issue of Georgia. I have stated that we

shouldn”t be surprised to see Russia move in some day because

Putin and the military can”t stand the fact that Georgia is so

chummy with the West. So it is alarming to learn that the

Russians now demand visas for Georgians visiting Russia. No

other former Soviet Republic is required to do so.

China: It seems like every week, China feels compelled to show

its true colors. Most of the time it involves the Falun Gong

movement. But this week, a well-known labor union proponent

was arrested for trying to organize a union at a silk factory which

has become familiar to the West because of past attempts to

unionize it. The man was involuntarily committed to a psychiatric

hospital.

The workers at the factory issued a statement. “Chinese workers

have not shared equally the fruits of economic development and

some have found it hard to survive. The official trade union of

China has not spoken for the workers.”

So let me remind you of some figures I listed last week in

discussing A-Rod”s $250 million contract to play baseball. The

average rural Chinese laborer earns $200 a year; an urban worker,

$700.

North Korea: President Clinton wants to go so badly before he

leaves office. He just knows he”d have a good time. [He”s

undoubtedly heard of Kim Jong-Il”s harem.] Actually, I don”t see

any harm in him going…as long as he doesn”t sign any treaties.

At least over time word would leak out into the paddy fields that

the Great Western leader had paid a visit…and that can”t be a bad

thing.

Serbia: Parliamentary elections are today. Going into it,

Milosevic”s Socialists were only at 10% in the polls, but that

would be enough to gain him a seat and, with it, parliamentary

immunity. Nonetheless, pressure is building to bring him to

justice.

Meanwhile, there are growing fears of an offensive by ethnic-

Albanians across the border into Kosovo. [Christmas Day?] The

Albanians fired at U.S. and Russian troops (without injury) last

weekend.

India / Pakistan: The Indian government took the first steps in

initiating peace talks with Pakistan over the disputed region of

Kashmir. But while Pakistan didn”t dismiss the overture out of

hand, internally, they have their own problems.

Pakistan”s military government allowed former Prime Minister

Sharif to go into exile in Saudi Arabia, thereby upsetting the

Muslim extremists in the country who wanted Sharif to be put to

death (he had received a life sentence for corruption). Just like in

the Middle East, every time you want to be optimistic about

something, in this case a lessening of the tensions between two

new nuclear powers, you have to remind yourself that the

extremist elements in these countries won”t let it happen.

Iran: Two key dissidents were arrested for insulting Ayatollah

Khamenei. “You suck!” “What did you say?…Arrest them!”

Turkey: What a weird situation. More mayhem as leftists went

on a hunger strike in prisons across the land, protesting

conditions they would find if they were moved out of their

dormitory-style digs into more crowded jails. [I guess they had

seen “Midnight Express.”] So the government moved in in an

attempt to make them eat. Result? At least 20 dead in the

ensuing riots.

Algeria: One of the real forgotten “Hott Spotts.” 100,000 have

died in the civil war that began in 1992 and which has flared anew

as Islamic rebels killed over 200 last week (it”s the “holy” month

of Ramadan, you know). In one particularly gruesome episode,

the extremists raided a boarding school and killed at least 15 in

the dead of night.

Austria: Far-right official Joerg Haider was in the news again this

week as he was part of a large contingent that met with Pope

John Paul II, sparking protests in Rome. But it was not an

“audience,” as the press initially made it out to be.

Meanwhile, Austria”s judiciary has a number of investigations

underway against Haider and his cronies. Haider”s people then

try to block them by suing the judges and prosecutors for things

like defamation of character.

Germany: In keeping with the above, your editor has consistently

expressed a concern about rising anti-immigrant, racist sentiments

throughout Europe. Thursday”s Washington Post had a front

page story on how the German government is increasingly

concerned over the prevalence of neo-Nazi web sites, domiciled

in the U.S. The Germans don”t allow such hatred in their own

country but here in the U.S., the 1st Amendment protects the

Nazis” rights.

So what you have is a situation where native Germans can still

read everything over the web. And as I mentioned a few weeks

ago, these groups are turning increasingly to violence and there is

a real fear that new bands of urban terrorists are being formed.

Colin Powell and Black America

I quote excerpts from his comments of last Saturday, upon being

tabbed by George W. to be secretary of state, in my 12/21 “Hott

Spotts” link. The following, though, needs to be repeated here as

well.

“Finally, I would just like to note that in the newspaper stories

that will be written about this occasion they will say that Colin

Powell is the first African-American to ever hold the position of

secretary of state. And I”m glad they will say that, and I want it

repeated.

I want it repeated because I hope it will give inspiration to young

African-Americans coming along – but beyond that, all young

Americans coming along – that no matter where you began in this

society, with hard work and with dedication and with the

opportunities that are presented by this society, there are no

limitations on you.”

Conservative African-American sociologist Shelby Steele

commented that during the past campaign, “Mr. Bush reached out

to blacks more than any Republican in memory. Yet blacks

rallied against him as if he were George Wallace in 1968.”

“Black Leaders keep making Democratic party affiliation a test of

the black identity itself. This may get out the vote, but it makes

blacks the easiest group in American life for both parties to take

for granted.”

And, of course, there is the Reverend (he constantly demeans the

title) Jesse Jackson. Appearing on “Meet the Press,” Jackson

called Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas a liar for

Thomas”s comment that politics were not part of the Supreme

Court. “No one believes him,” said Jackson.

Then Jesse said of George W., “You know what kind of blacks

they (former President Bush) gave us in the past…Clarence

Thomas, who was the deciding vote (in the election).”

But back to Powell and national security advisor-designate

Condoleeza Rice. Enough of Jackson”s negative, racist venom.

Watching Powell and Rice speak, I kept thinking about what an

incredible message their selection is sending to the rest of the

world. Just think about it. Do you see an Indian defense minister

in Britain, an Austrian in France, an Italian in Germany, or a

Korean in Japan? I imagine you”d have to do quite a bit of

digging to find anything near such an example.

Colin Powell, in particular, will be a giant figure in Africa (I can

just imagine the crowds he”d draw) and I hope the Bush

administration actively pursues diplomatic efforts on the

continent. I also hope I”m not the only one who sees a huge

opportunity here because I suspect his work can help lead to the

downfall of some of the tinhorn dictators who destroy the dreams

of their people.

–Regarding Powell”s actual foreign policy ideas, I do have to add

a quick thought. I have spent the better part of the last few years

praising the man. But I probably only agree with 50% of his

positions; which shows you what I think of the man himself.

I would differ, for example, in a case like E. Timor. I argued in

this space that a single platoon of our nation”s finest could have

blasted the dirtball militiamen, who were wreaking havoc on this

destitute land, into hell. To me, every now and then the U.S.

needs to send a message, at little risk, that this will not stand.

That”s not nation-building, that”s just doing what”s right. Powell,

on the other hand, would have stayed clear…just as the Clinton

administration did.

Semi-organized musings…mostly of a political nature

–Lanny Davis, former counsel to President Clinton, was a

fraternity brother of George W. at Yale. He related the following

revealing story in an op-ed piece this week in the Washington

Post.

“I remember the moment well: About 33 years ago, George Bush

(we never used the ”W” back then) was sitting among a group of

us in a college common room at Yale, engaged in one of our late-

night comment-on-everyone sessions. Someone made an acerbic

comment about a fellow student who was considered one of the

biggest nerds on campus. There was laughter. Then George

said: ”Hey, it”s not so easy for him. He”s a good guy – leave him

alone!” We all quieted down.”

–O.K. More on John McCain and campaign finance reform.

Few voters would be against banning “soft money,” placing

restrictions on “issue ads,” and, most importantly, eliminating the

practice of using union dues for political purposes.

But when it comes down to your right to spend your dollars as

you see fit, the principle of democracy says I should be able to

give a candidate a lot more than $1,000. My problem with New

Jersey”s Jon Corzine when he spent $62 million of his own money

to win the Senate race was not that he spent it. The level was

totally obscene…but he can do what he wants. The problem,

though, was that Corzine doled out $25,000 chunks to various

groups with the clear intention of buying their votes. That”s

unethical, if not illegal.

Bottom line, McCain will do what he wants but the issues are

many and there are far greater ones that need to be tackled by a

Bush administration in its first 100 days. But I suspect that

McCain is plowing ahead, much to the chagrin of many of us.

–According to a report by the Washington Post”s David Broder,

many Democrats on Capitol Hill were impressed by George W.”s

appearance the other day. They said he spoke with candor and

had a certain swagger, like he belonged.

On the other hand, geezuz, can”t Bush complete one sentence?

And how about this one? He introduced his new housing

secretary with the intro, “housing and human development.” And

he was reading a script!

So did you recite your “Keep Cheney Alive” prayer yet today?

Remember, it”s a daily obligation for all Americans, regardless of

your political leanings. And, unfortunately, there seemed to be a

flood of articles this week on Cheney”s heart condition. Most

experts seem to feel he may have more problems within 6 months.

Real Random Musings

–So I”m listening to Jack Jones do Gershwin when I hear this line

from the song, “Who Cares (so long as you care for me).”

“I”m not concerned with stocks and bonds I”ve been burned

with.”

A line for today…only that was 1931.

–The national crime rate has bottomed. As the economy slides, it

will inevitably pick up. Arm thyself, said Charleton.

–Bill Clinton did an interview for “60 Minutes II.” The next day,

Dan Rather said we should recognize Clinton for being so

“pensive.” Oh brother.

–Just an awful tragedy. The town of Decatur, Georgia just

elected a sheriff who vowed to clean up the rampant corruption in

the police department. So he was gunned down in his own

driveway.

–As you sit in church this weekend, spend a few minutes thinking

of Ukraine”s Cardinal Lyubachyvsky, who passed away this week

at 86. He was a highly significant figure in Ukraine”s

independence movement. But back in 1946, he was sent into

exile in Rome for 44 years as Stalin banned the church.

Thousands of other priests were not as fortunate as they were

shipped off to Siberia.

–Pope John Paul II, in his year-end message, blasted Western

culture.

“Detached from their Christian origins, these models are often

inspired by an approach to life marked by secularism and practical

atheism and by patterns of radical individualism.

“This is a phenomenon of vast proportions, sustained by powerful

media campaigns and designed to propagate lifestyles, social and

economic programs and, in the last analysis, a comprehensive

world view which erodes from within other estimable cultures and

civilizations.”

Right on, Your Holiness. [Actually, I think the Pope must have

just seen the Polo.com commercial.]

–A Christmas tree farmer invests $7.50-$14.50 into each tree and

it takes 13 years to mature.

–Everyone”s commenting on Madonna”s wedding…I just don”t

know what to say!!

–Listening to Tony Bennett”s Christmas album. Now there”s a

guy with class.

–Imagine. In 8 years we never heard Chelsea talk.

–The Coast Guard saves 4,000 lives a year, including 34 from the

cruise ship SeaBreeze this past week. A toast to you all!

Gold closed at $274

Oil, $26.18

Returns for the week, 12/18-12/22

Dow Jones +1.9%

S&P 500 -0.5%

S&P MidCap +1.4%

Russell 2000 +1.1%

Nasdaq -5.1%

Returns for the period, 1/1/00-12/22/00

Dow Jones -7.5%

S&P 500 -11.1%

S&P MidCap +12.7%

Russell 2000 -8.3%

Nasdaq -38.2%

Bulls 54.1%

Bears 30.3% [Source: Investors Intelligence]

Notes:

Holiday Schedule: No “Bar Chat” Monday, no “Dr. Bortrum” or

“Hott Spotts” this week. But I am beginning a series on 12/29

for my “Wall Street History” link about the technology bubble.

You have to imagine I have two years of “Week in Review”

material to pour through. There”s a lot of good stuff there, if I

may say so myself.

“Pick the Dow” Contest: I will post the winner as part of the 1/3

edition of “Bar Chat.”

This particular column may be delayed by a few hours next

Saturday in order to accumulate some year-end data.

The board of directors of StocksandNews.com is pleased to

announce that there will be no price increases in 2001….

Ahh, Brian? Yes, Babette? You aren”t charging anything right

now. Oh, never mind.

From all of us at S&N, Dr. Bortrum, Harry Trumbore and my

friends at CSI MultiMedia, we wish all of you a Happy Hanukkah

and a Blessed Christmas. Travel safe!! We appreciate your

support.

Brian Trumbore