[Posted 7:15 a.m.]
I received a few notes this week essentially wishing that I would
stop being so negative. Well, actually, I’m not nearly as gloomy
as I was last year when it comes to the stock market, so, for the
record, let me clarify my position.
I stated on 12/30 that we’ve had our Crash – and, to those who
refuse to call the 2000 experience a Crash, I continue to maintain
that if 66% of the overall market flows are in a major index that
collapsed 50%, that’s a Crash – and “I see a classic muddle
through environment in 2001, with the Dow and S&P finishing
the year no more than 5% from current levels and the Nasdaq
maybe tacking on a few hundred points.” In other words, a far
cry from the days of last spring when yours truly was screaming,
head for the hills!
But, compared to 2000, when the economy surged forward
while I remained bearish on the equity markets, in 2001 I’m
bearish on the economy, to what extent, however, I’m simply not
sure.
Some of us have beaten up on Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan because we were convinced he should have started
lowering interest rates last December, at the latest. He had
accomplished his goal in 2000 of pricking the bubble – though
playing an active role in the stock market clearly isn’t part of the
Fed’s mandate – and the evidence of a significant slowdown was
mounting.
And what we have witnessed even in the days since the Fed’s
belated action on rates, January 3rd, is an incredible shift in
sentiment on the economic outlook for at least the next 6 months.
It all started Friday, January 5th, when Goldman Sachs sent out a
note to its institutional clients that they now foresaw an actual
contraction in the economy for the 1st quarter of minus 0.3%, and
that corporate profits would fall over the course of the year as
well.
[Goldman’s Abby Cohen then went on “Wall Street Week with
Louis Rukeyser” that evening and was less than forthright, in my
opinion, in relaying to the viewing audience what her own firm
had passed on to its top clients earlier in the day.]
Then this past Monday, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter issued their
revised economic outlook for 2001, stating that GDP will
contract by 1.25% the first half of the year; two down quarters in
a row, the classic definition of a recession. [MSDW said we
would eke out growth of 1.1% for the full year, however.]
And MSDW added that, “The downside risks we have been
warning of over the past few months are now coming to pass,”
and they also now see a 50% chance for a global recession.
In other words, you know those 2001 forecasts I have provided
you with the past few weeks? You might as well throw them in
the trash. In the words of economist Ed Yardeni, “We’ve never
seen an economy fall off a cliff like this.”
Ed Hyman stated this week that the U.S. was now already in a
mild recession, possibly turning into a severe one (severe being
when the economy contracts by 2% or more). And Hyman
echoed MSDW in saying that there is an increasing chance of a
synchronized global recession.
But what is amazing is that almost without exception, everyone
agrees that the second half of 2001 will be significantly better. I
argue that no one knows where we’re headed because we have
never dealt with a slowdown in the New Economy. That’s not
being extra gloomy, that’s just stating what I thought was obvious.
Why don’t more people just say, “I don’t know?”
Which brings us back to stocks. While the Dow treaded water,
finishing at 10525, off 1.3%, the Nasdaq staged a strong rally,
adding 9.1% to close at 2626. Which means that since the Fed
rally of January 3rd, the Dow is still off 420 points, while the
Nasdaq is up a mere 10.
An old cliché on Wall Street is true. The Street is a discounting
mechanism and, with the action in the Nasdaq in particular, the
market would seem to be saying, hey, we know things will be soft
in the first half of the year, but by the second half everything will
be hunky-dory. That’s why the market has been continually
sloughing off most of the recent bad news on the earnings front.
Thus, looking at the situation with a historic perspective, if you
really believe it’s back off to the races in the second half, well
then go ahead and dive right back in now.
But why would you?
Look, post-Crash almost every stock is entitled to a dead cat
bounce now and then (a la AT&T and Lucent, for example, this
past week), or, in the case of Yahoo! a dead cache bounce, if one
can be found.
But beyond a bounce or two, what more? Is a stock like Yahoo
(I just took away the exclamation point…they don’t deserve it
anymore), which just stated that its earnings in 2001 will be less
than 2000, going to bounce from $25 to $50 anytime soon? I
mean, that would give it a P/E of 125 based on their own new
earnings estimate! Or is Cisco going to rally back to $60 (still
well off its all-time high of $82) from its current $38? That
would mean that Cisco has a multiple of 75, at best, given the
current capital spending environment.
Now if you tell me that these two still achieve those price targets,
I’ll throw up my arms and say, “You win,” because that would
mean we are getting right back into the environment that caused
the first collapse.
No, I think we’ll continue to see one or the other index rally from
time to time, particularly if the economic number of the day isn’t
painful, and then they’ll fall back some, continually repeating the
pattern until we get a clearer sense that a bottom has been
reached.
Now back to this new global environment of ours. [If you’re
getting dizzy, just rest your brain for awhile…pop in that tape of
the 1st episode of “Temptation Island.”]
The New York Times’ David Sanger wrote this week, “(The)
faltering American economy is not just a domestic problem for
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan…in the last few days it has also
become evident that it could rank among Mr. Bush’s early
international troubles.”
Ah yes, globalization. Martin Kettle is the editor of Britain’s
Guardian newspaper. Kettle had an interesting piece in the
Washington Post the other day wherein he writes of “a new form
of post-Cold War anti-Americanism that reflects mounting unease
in the American capitalist model and its cultural outgrowth;”
referring even to issues like the death penalty (addressed further
in “random musings”), global warming and plans for a National
Missile Defense.
“Americans should not be indifferent to a growing sense in
Europe and elsewhere that there sometimes appears to be one law
for privileged America and another law for other countries.”
In other words, we are too self-absorbed to give a damn about
the rest of the world.
You don’t have to agree with 90% of what Kettle, or I, have said
on this issue (in my case since I started this site). But if you are
one of America’s policymakers, you better recognize that the
sentiments exist and the ramifications for the U.S. economy are
troubling.
On various occasions I have mentioned that the world does not
always have to buy American, and advances in technology make it
even easier for the world to thumb their noses at us. All you have
to do is think of the many different locations around the globe
where semiconductor chips are manufactured to get a sense of
what I’m talking about. And it’s not far-fetched to contemplate a
world where chip plants (or foundries) are seized that have a
connection to the U.S.
For example, most Americans don’t realize that up to 50% of
some of our chipmaking ability resides over in Taiwan (and that
percentage is increasing each year). Who’s to say that the
Chinese (or their Taiwanese surrogates) don’t someday take it
over, thus throwing the U.S. economy into a depression?
[For the Chinese, nationalism could be the overriding reason why
they would take such a risk to their own economic future.]
This is the New World, the New Economy. Change occurs at
lightspeed. But there is hope. The hubris that so dominated
every aspect of the Clinton administration, hopefully is now a
thing of the past.
George W. Bush has often used words like “humble” and
“humility” in his speeches. It is said that he will place particular
emphasis on a “humble America” in his inaugural address.
Today, we’re all participants in a global economy that is definitely
fraying at the edges. On one hand, Alan Greenspan needs to
fulfill his role and help save the world through prudent monetary
policy. On the other, the new administration needs to put
forward an America that acknowledges its superpower status,
while at the same time recognizing that there needs to be a
renewed spirit of cooperation and shared wealth, particularly with
our allies.
Street Bytes
–The Nasdaq’s rally represented just its 4th weekly gain in the last
19, dating back to September 1st.
–The bond market suffered through a rough spell after a string of
good weeks had propelled rates to their lowest levels in years.
The chief culprit was anxiety over the belief that the Fed may only
lower the Fed funds rate another quarter percent (25 basis
points), rather than the half point that is already priced into the
market. Friday’s economic data played no small part in the mini-
debacle.
First off, retail sales for December rose when a decline was
expected. Far too much was made of this figure, particularly
since it could easily be revised downward later on. The more
important statement is that retail sales for the entire 4th quarter fell
at a greater rate than has been seen in 10 years.
Secondly, the core producer price index rose a greater-than-
expected 0.3%. So the combination of stronger-than-expected retail
activity, coupled with a higher-than-expected inflation reading,
may cause the Fed to rethink any plans they may have had for
more aggressive action come January 30-31.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 4.96% 2-yr. 4.89% 10-yr. 5.25% 30-yr. 5.62%
–No, I don’t know what IT (“Ginger”) is and I don’t give a
damn. For those of you who have real lives, a fellow by the name
of Dean Kamen has supposedly created something that will
change life as we know it today. He also evidently has major
backing. But he won’t say what IT is until the appropriate time.
It’s all a bunch of crap…and if it isn’t, count me in!!!
–Gateway is laying off 13% of its workforce as December sales
plunged 15% from a year ago. Daimler Chrysler foresees a 13%
drop in production, meaning that 20-25,000 could be spending
some quality time with their families instead of monitoring robots.
–Hewlett-Packard’s CEO Carly Fiorina has been a bust and, as
H-P continues to surprise, negatively, the analyst and investor
community, her credibility is shot.
–Some economists worry that following a consumption boom
such as the one we’ve been in the past few years, you have a
savings squeeze, thus exacerbating any downturn. But we do
need to save more.
–The other side: A few Fed governors stepped forward this week
to defend current economic activity, such as the comment by
Atlanta’s Fed chief. “The U.S. economy remains the envy of the
world.” Slower GDP growth is not the same thing as no growth,
he added.
–Europe’s economy appears to be holding up well. BMW, for
instance, plans on hiring 1,000 workers this year.
–Some of the comments slamming the proposed merger between
American and TWA really were nonsensical. Hell, without
American’s help, TWA is finally history and it does a huge
number on the St. Louis economy. Now, TWA’s 20,000 workers
have a lifeline. I’ll pay $50 more a few times a year if that means
that they keep their jobs. And if you travel more than that, your
company is already picking up the tab so what do you care?
–OPEC meeting this coming week. Production cuts are
imminent. Be there. Aloha.
–From a product and design consultant: “Most people use about
35% of the capacity of any one technology they get their hands
on.”
–The next wireless application, 3G (Third Generation), will cost
European telecom companies another $225 billion to buy the
licenses and build out the networks. But what will it be used
for?……I’m waiting…..
–I get a kick every time someone says something really bullish
about the telecom sector in this country. All I see is a mounting
debt load with minimal, if any, real profits.
–And on the semiconductor side, the world is awash in capacity.
I think of my beloved Ireland, where every major U.S.
manufacturer has built a plant. It’s only a matter of time before
the boom that has swept the Emerald Isle goes pffft! [And then I
sweep in and buy my dream home at a greatly reduced price. Of
course I could have bought it 10 years ago at a price far below
where I now expect to purchase it. Dohh!]
–An AP poll revealed that more than half said investing in the
stock market now was a bad idea, a big change from last year at
this time.
–Yahoo: You can not overstate the importance of Yahoo’s
dismal outlook for 2001. One of the Internet’s true leaders
revealing its model was deeply flawed, built on online advertising
that yours truly told you all was about as viable as a Ukrainian
nuclear plant.
–I remain the only one who can’t get fired up to write about
AOL Time Warner. Everything that needed to be written has,
about six times over.
–My portfolio: As uncertain as I am about the future of our
economy, I nonetheless made a significant move in my own
portfolio this week, taking some cash and moving it into a high
quality junk fund (that’s not a misnomer). It was a simple risk-
reward decision. I recognize that there is still some potential
downside in my NAV (net asset value), particularly if the
economic gloom deepens. But I just felt that any loss in NAV
would be handily surpassed by the dividends I’ll receive. In other
words, I felt that even in a worst case scenario, on a total return
basis I will beat money market rates over the next 12 months.
And possibly, by a fairly wide margin.
Junk funds lost on average 9-10% in 2000. So far this year, they
are already up 4% in just two weeks.
But be careful. Sit down with an adviser if you haven’t invested
in this sector before as it can get ugly from time to time. These
aren’t Treasury bonds.
–California: Not that they deserve to be last on the list of “Street
Bytes,” but if they had paid more attention to just how many
bytes they would actually need to power, they may not have had
their current energy problem.
By now, those of you outside the West are aware that the two
largest utilities in California have gone $12 billion in debt (and
counting) just to buy energy. As the costs skyrocketed, they
weren’t able to pass them on to their customers because of
mandated rate freezes.
But 54% of Californians don’t believe there is an actual shortage
and one retired worker went so far as to say, “How can we go so
many years with no problems at all, then suddenly we run into an
energy crisis?”
Well, there are all kinds of answers, the simplest being the state’s
public officials were idiots in not calculating that if the demand is
rising, you better attack the supply side of the equation by
building more plants.
So now the utilities’ credit lines are tapped out and bankruptcy is
a real possibility unless California acts quickly. [As I write this, it
looks like a short-term solution may be in the works.]
Last week I commented on how S&P had lowered PG&E to
BBB-. A good friend of mine in the banking business had the
following comment.
“The California utilities story is absolutely amazing….(But) it’s
also interesting to follow S&P’s role. They downgraded the
utilities to BBB-. The last thing they are is BBB-. They are
either AA because they will receive government support, or D
because they are insolvent. S&P chose BBB- because it won’t
trip the only loan covenant with the banks – thus commercial
paper holders may get paid back as the companies draw on their
bank loans.” So, is S&P’s credibility at issue here?
International Affairs
Middle East: It’s apparent there will be no 11th-hour peace
agreement before Bill Clinton goes off into the sunset…and down
the block to his new Washington digs, near the Italian and Danish
embassies where it will be party central…but I digress.
Ariel Sharon is now a lock for the upcoming election as he holds
a better than 2-1 lead over Prime Minister Barak in the polls.
And this week the Israeli military admitted that they were
responsible for the political hits on Palestinians (totally with
cause, in the mind of this editor).
But the vast majority of Israelis are none too fired up about
President Clinton’s last peace plan, which he hopes to leave with
George W. as a “statement of understandings.” Some 200,000
took to the streets of Jerusalem to protest Clinton’s legacy ploy,
which aside from dividing the city of Jerusalem, has played right
into the hands of Sharon.
And regarding the President’s search for a legacy, columnist
Charles Krauthammer wrote the following this week.
“Clinton has indeed left a legacy: The president who has done
more to undermine both American credibility and Israeli security –
albeit with the collusion of a delusional Israeli prime minister –
than any in American history.
“For peace, perhaps the price might have been worth it. But look
at the region. The blood flows and the cannons are being
readied.”
China / Taiwan: Much was made this week on the release of
“The Tiananmen Papers,” which reputedly provides a behind the
scenes account of the events leading up to the Tiananmen Square
Massacre of June 1989. Smuggled out of the country by a
leading, though as yet unidentified, reformer, the documents
reveal a split in the Communist Party leadership between those
who argued for force and those who didn’t.
Already, some inaccuracies in the facts of the papers have been
pointed out and obviously there is a hidden agenda at work here.
But if they are real, and those who leaked it are high-level
reformers, that does lead to some optimism that when President
Jiang Zemin steps aside in 2002, the reformers have a shot at full
control. Regardless, a titanic struggle between the reformers and
the hard-liners continues. [In about two weeks I will devote a
“Hott Spotts” piece to the issue.]
Separately, China (as well as South Korea, see below) is very
worried about the Bush administration’s plans for a National
Missile Defense. And, for its part, Taiwan is seeking 4 new
destroyers from the U.S. to counter China’s recent purchase of
destroyers from Russia. The U.S. is committed to Taiwan’s
defense so this issue is one of immediate concern to the Bush
presidency.
Russia: President Putin wrapped up his meeting with German
Chancellor Schroeder and said that Russia would pay off its
foreign debt (about $48 billion), $20 billion of which is owed to
the Germans. Putin also said he would stop jerking his neighbors
around, like Georgia, by manipulating their gas supply. Russia
was cutting Georgia off because it accuses them of harboring
Chechen rebels. Of course, regarding Chechnya, Putin’s own
commissioner on the scene estimated that 500,000 innocents have
been forced from their homes and there has been absolutely zero
reconstruction effort. [And an American aid worker was
kidnapped by rebels in the region this week.] And so it goes in
one of the most depressing parts of the globe, where everyone
just sits around and drinks themselves into a stupor.
South Korea: President Kim Dae Jung is worried that George W.
will subvert Kim’s peace plans, according to columnist David
Ignatius. The concern is that since incoming Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld is such a staunch advocate of missile defense,
the new administration may have a tin ear to any serious peace
overtures from the North, thus irritating a fragile North Korean
dictator, Kim Jong-Il.
And the issue of American responsibility for the Korean War
incident at No Gun-Ri came to a head this week when the Clinton
administration expressed regret for the deaths of scores of
civilians, but it issued no formal apology on the possible
responsibility of individual commanders. Many South Koreans
are now extremely upset. I can see why we didn’t apologize (the
issue of reparations being foremost) but we should have in the
interest of future relations with this critical ally. Though it should
be added that what the U.S. did this week was acceptable to Kim
Dae Jung.
Thailand: A billionaire tycoon was elected to become the new
prime minister. But the guy, Thaksin Shinawatra (a new name for
George W. to learn) is already under investigation for corruption.
A major step backward for this nation.
Turkey: So they moved 10,000 troops into Iraq this week to help
one group of Kurds against another. Geezuz, that’s no small
maneuver. I hope someone in our State Department at least
picked their head off the desk and said, “Whassup with that?!”
Ecuador: As the drug war in Colombia picks up, Ecuador is
coming under increasing fire as Colombian rebels and drug lords
use Ecuador as a sanctuary. Said one analyst, “If Colombia is
Vietnam, Ecuador is Cambodia.”
Europe: The issue of NATO’s use of uranium-tipped weapons in
the Balkans continues to grow as it emerged this week that
NATO had released a report back in 1999 warning of the
dangers, particularly since a “decontamination plan doesn’t exist”
for the areas impacted by the exploding shells. This gives
Europeans another reason to blast NATO and the U.S.
Bill Clinton
It was late summer of 1998 and I was staring at Norman
Rockwell’s stirring “Four Freedoms,” a celebration of America, at
the Rockwell Museum in Stockbridge, MA. I had but one
thought on my mind. Gosh, I loathed Bill Clinton.
Of course this was during the lead-up to the president’s
impeachment. 50% of us detested him. 50% of us didn’t seem to
care. After all, regarding the latter group, the stock market was
doing well and the country was at work and at peace.
And that’s part of the problem in assessing the Clinton years.
Generally speaking, life was pretty good. Heck, they were good
years for yours truly. But while some of us think that part of
being an American is more than just enjoying the fruits of one’s
labor, others have a right to be indifferent.
I’m not going to rehash every Republican / Democrat fight of the
past eight years. We’re all sick of that. But there are some things
that can be put on the positive side of President Clinton’s ledger,
as any objective analysis would note.
–Clinton brought the country to the center, normally a good
thing.
–He largely left the economy alone. In other words, he didn’t
screw it up.
–The president worked hard for free trade. NAFTA and
attempting to bring China into the WTO (this still isn’t wrapped
up, by the way) were gutty, albeit inevitable steps.
–Clinton was smart enough to co-opt Republican programs such
as welfare reform.
On the negative side, consider the following.
–First off, the Clinton administration’s foreign policy has been an
unmitigated disaster. For example, following are the words of
commentator Thomas Friedman, writing in the New York Times
last December.
“Democracy is in trouble in more places today than at any time
since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Look around. Democracy is
faltering in all the former Soviet republics, Romania, Indonesia,
Nigeria, the Czech Republic, South Africa, Colombia, Peru,
Ecuador, Bolivia, Pakistan, Venezuela, Taiwan, Haiti, Serbia and
the Philippines.”
–From Robert Samuelson:
“The Clinton paradox is this: Rarely has a president so dominated
the public stage and so little affected the public agenda. His
central failure lay not in what he did – which wasn’t much – but in
what he deliberately avoided. As the first baby boomer president,
he had a historic opportunity to prepare for his own generation’s
retirement. The task was to redraw the political compact
between workers and retirees by modernizing Social Security and
Medicare. Clinton didn’t try, and worse, he consistently
obstructed others in both parties who did.”
–One issue looming large these days is the lack of a national
energy policy. Eight years. Amazing. All we can do is grovel at
the feet of the Saudis and the other dirtballs of the Middle East.
–And then there is the issue of missile defense. You can debate
the merits and viability of the various proposals, but the fact is we
never really debated the topic in the first place, in eight years!
Which leaves us with the character issue.
I was continually amazed at how some didn’t seem to understand
that by his actions, Bill Clinton showed a total lack of respect for
all of us. And we will pay the price for his hubris on the
international stage, as the anti-Americanism I have written so
often about spreads like a wildfire, particularly if we can’t
arrest our current economic slowdown. Robert Samuelson:
“The reason impeachment and Lewinsky loom so large in the
Clinton era is that there was so little else. He engaged,
entertained and enraged. He was full of himself and full of talk.
He had an amazing ability to outmaneuver his adversaries and
gain short-term political advantage. But all the noise and action
merely highlight the larger contradiction. He was always on the
move but rarely going anywhere. He was mostly a do-nothing
president.”
But, alas, my friends. Bill Clinton won’t simply fade away. He
will be with us forever.
Last December 16 in this space I quoted Clinton in an interview
with the Daily News (courtesy of The Weekly Standard). When
asked for his opinion if a re-examination of the Florida ballots
somehow showed that Al Gore won, Clinton responded.
“Then America looks like a fraud. They’d kill us around the
world. It will be harder to trust us from that point on.”
Here we have our very own president helping to delegitimize the
most important office in the world. But Clinton wasn’t finished.
On Tuesday night, at a farewell rally in Chicago, the president
addressed the crowd on the issue of the election once again.
“By the time it was over, our candidate had won the popular vote
and the only way they could win the election was to stop the
voting in Florida.”
This isn’t just politics. And it isn’t just Maxine Waters or Tom
Delay speaking out. It’s the president. He swore an oath to our
Constitution. He knows what that document says about how we
select our presidents.
Treason n. Any act that intends to overthrow the recognized
government or harm the head of state.
That’s getting pretty close in my book. There isn’t another
American president in our nation’s history who would have acted
in this manner.
But don’t worry. The tomes will start coming out, sooner than
later, and we’ll begin to learn the truth of what really transpired
these past 8 years, particularly as it relates to issues like the ’96
campaign and Chinese involvement. [You may have seen that
James Riady just pled guilty to violations during that campaign
and was fined a staggering $8.6 million. Riady continues to claim
there was no presidential or executive level involvement in his
own illegal activities. He is forced, however, to continue to
cooperate as part of his plea bargain.]
No, soon enough, Bill Clinton will be addressing us for the last
time as president. I guarantee he’ll bite his lip and say, “Keep
fighting for tomorrow,” whatever the hell that means. What I do
know is that because of some of his actions, America is not a
better place.
[The PBS “Frontline” program on the Clinton years is Tuesday.
Check your local listings.]
Random Musings
–E-mail policy: Personally, I have been ticked off at the amount
of e-mails I have suddenly begun receiving because I, like all of
you, happen to be on some lists. And I saw where eBay switched
millions of their customers’ e-mail preferences from “No” to
“Yes” recently because of some programming glitch. I bring all
of this up because I want you to know that you have my full
assurance I will never sell the lists that I have compiled for events
such as our “Pick the Dow” contest.
–This year there will be only 3 dot-com advertisers for the Super
Bowl vs. 17 last year. [E*Trade, Hotjobs.com and Monster.com
are the survivors.]
–I hope everyone understands that when I stated the 2000 return
for the Mongolian stock market last week, +80%, that was a real
figure.
Well, I don’t think investors will see that this year, especially after
the massive storm this week that struck Mongolia, Inner
Mongolia (China) and parts of Russia and Kazakhstan. The air
temperature in Siberia hit minus 57. And they say that a violent
blizzard / sand storm (the worst in 50 years), dumped two-feet of
snow, along with depositing huge drifts of sand mixed in with the
white stuff. At least 30 died, many mere feet from their homes
which they couldn’t find. And at least 10% of the area’s cattle
have perished. No word on the plight of the yaks.
–A few weeks back I noted how Newt Gingrich appeared to be
scrambling to get back into the game, so to speak, showing up on
every talk show imaginable. This week, U.S. News had the
following in its “Whispers” column.
“Somebody tell former Speaker Gingrich to avoid darkened
Capitol corridors. Allies whom he has recently taken to trashing
on TV want to field-dress him like a trophy buck.”
–Feel good story of the week: Stephen Buckley reports in the
Washington Post that volunteerism is soaring in Brazil, especially
among the poor. While there is no shortage of good folks here in
America, the extent of the volunteer effort in Brazil is quite
extraordinary, particularly for a developing nation. And 50% of
those helping the poor live in economic desperation themselves.
–The “civil” Europeans love to give Americans grief for our use
of the death penalty, rather laughable considering Europe’s
history. So this week, Saudi Arabia beheaded two more for drug
trafficking. Last year 125 suffered a similar fate in the Kingdom,
well short, however, of the record 191 established in 1995.
[Copyright, StocksandNews. “Fun With Numbers!”]
But I never hear the Europeans getting on the Saudis case. And
countries like France are just dying to expand their business
ties with the ultimate dirtballs, Iran and Iraq.
–The weed killer “Roundup” has received the ultimate
endorsement. This is the product supplied to the Colombians by
the U.S. in order to help them destroy the coca crop. But
Roundup is also killing legal crops. And the directions say not to
spray it where it would come in contact with humans, yet when
it’s sprayed from helicopters, the mist is all over the place. How
stupid can we be?
–Well, pretty stupid. Osama bin Laden was shown on TV in
Qatar attending the wedding of his son in Afghanistan. Also in
attendance was bin Laden’s notorious right-hand man. There
they were, out in the open, dancing around. Where was the CIA?
If we were keeping tabs on the son, it seems we would have then
found the father. And one cruise missile could have provided an
appropriate ending to the reception.
–The Taliban in Afghanistan has instituted the death penalty for
those converting from Islam to a different religion. We can’t
wipe this place off the map fast enough.
–I have written of this before, both here and in “Bar Chat,” but
with each new piece of evidence it bears repeating. If you are
going on a long flight, please exercise during it, at least moving
your feet around, picking them off the floor, etc.
Years ago, when a passenger would arrive at his destination, if he
had problems the next day and died, it was just assumed that the
death was attributable to heart failure or a blood clot. It’s only in
the past few years that authorities now realize a great portion of
these deaths were the result of arterial thrombosis, a consequence
of inactivity on long flights.
I had a chat on Friday with a good friend of mine from school
who has had some very serious problems, resulting in large part
from a flight to London, one in which he was stationary the whole
time. Upon his arrival, it wasn’t until the next day when he
complained of pain in his legs that his dinner companions insisted
he go to the hospital. If he hadn’t, he may have had a fatal blood
clot hours later.
I could give you a pre-flight treatment which my friend’s doctors
prescribe but for insurance reasons I better leave it up to you to
consult your own. [And you can also have clotting problems
just sitting in a chair all day, like your editor does.]
–The Congressional Black Caucus did themselves no good
during their protest of the formal electoral college tally on
January 6th. What a bunch of inarticulate racists. And now look
for the Inauguration Day protests, led by the likes of Jesse
Jackson who said on ABC’s “This Week,” “The loser in Florida
became the winner.”
–Vlasic, the maker of pickles and Swanson TV dinners, may file
for Chapter 11. Now I noticed the other day that the British use
the less harsh term, “administration,” to describe bankruptcy (as
in the company was placed under administration). But this week,
Homer Simpson’s investment in Animotion Inc. faltered badly.
News anchor Kent Brockman described Animotion as being in
“super duper bankruptcy.” So from here on we’ll try and
differentiate between mere Chapter 11 and the super duper
variety.
–I certainly won’t miss the Clinton line, “We’re putting people
first.” What? As opposed to farm animals?
–And finally, sexy actress Monica Bellucci was asked whether
looks are important when she seeks out a man.
“I mean, if I see a beautiful man, maybe I am surprised for three
seconds, but then if I speak with him and he’s completely stupid, I
don’t see his beauty anymore.”
And that’s why, gentlemen, 4 out of 5 doctors recommend
StocksandNews for their patients who may be on the prowl.
Gold closed at $264
Oil, $30.05 [First time above $30 in 6 weeks.]
Returns for the week, 1/8-1/12
Dow Jones -1.3%
S&P 500 +1.5%
S&P MidCap +3.8%
Russell 2000 +4.9%
Nasdaq +9.1%
Returns for the period, 1/1/00-1/12/00
Dow Jones -2.4%
S&P 500 +0.2%
S&P MidCap -1.7%
Russell 2000 +0.5%
Nasdaq +6.3%
Bulls 56.7% [Highest since April! This is supposed to be a
contrarian indicator.]
Bears 32.7%
Note:
We have had some problems with our ticker on the home page
this week so it was removed until the provider gets their act
together. In the meantime, those of you who were clicking on it
to access the real-time quote function, can still do so by going
directly into the Money.net site. We will come up with a solution
shortly. Thanks for your patience.
Have a good week!
Brian Trumbore
