[Posted at 7:15 a.m.]
“It”s the world, stupid.”
On this historic day, as our new president is about to take the
oath of office, let”s take a look at the global economic picture that
faces his administration.
The U.S. represents 22% of the world economy; the Euro-11,
20%; Japan 8%. And since we have been absorbing massive
amounts of imports, of course, the U.S. is the engine for world
growth. Also, aside from the obvious example of Asia, it”s easy
to forget that 83% of Mexico”s, as well as 88% of Canada”s,
exports are to the U.S. [Source: IMF / Robert Samuelson] So
you can understand how I can make the statement that at all times
Alan Greenspan needs to do what”s right for the world, not just
the U.S.
The other night I was lying awake trying to figure out the whole
issue of consumer sentiment. [Hey, I”m normally thinking about
missile proliferation!] Shifts in sentiment occur in the blink of an
eye these days. Is another one around the corner?
Last week I quoted economist Ed Yardeni who said of today”s
environment, “We”ve never seen an economy fall off a cliff like
this one.” But earlier this week, many market mavens were trying
to convince us that things weren”t really so bad, and a continuing
parade of Fed governors has echoed the refrain.
Certainly, many of this week”s economic indicators continued to
tell the tale of an economy that is in the hospital. The debate is
over the actual condition of the patient. Critical, stable, or good.
Since the latter would be lying, we”re left with ”critical” or
”stable.”
Industrial production and consumer sentiment continue to plunge.
If that was all we could focus on, this would lead to a diagnosis
of critical.
But the inflation readings are positive, home refinancings are
soaring, and unemployment is still in the 4% range (though this
will shortly begin to climb). Additionally, though, while parts of
the global economy are shaky, there are no disasters to deal with,
yet, nor has California”s energy problem caused anything beyond
mild chest pains.
Enter Dr. Greenspan.
“Hey Doc. How are ya?”
“What seems to be the problem?”
“Well, Doc, I really can”t tell. I don”t exactly feel great but the
Nasdaq is rallying (the patient takes note of Dr. Greenspan”s
grimace at the mention of a Nasdaq rally) and I still have my job.”
“Well, Mr. Peterman, if you want me to help, you better be more
specific.”
“O.K. Couldn”t you just lower interest rates another half percent
at the end of the month?”
“Let me take that under advisement. I”ll check up on you again
next week before our meeting.”
“Ah, gee, thanks Dr. Greenspan.”
Frankly, it was a weird week. The Dow Jones managed a small
gain of 0.6% to close at 10587. [Actually, the Dow has been
“small” for months. It sits just 3 points from where it closed on
October 27 and the last 5 weeks have seen changes up or down of
less than 2%.] The Nasdaq registered its second consecutive
weekly gain for the first time since the week ending September
1st, climbing 5.5% to 2770. That”s a 15% rally in two weeks,
not too shabby. But the 2770 number also reinforces just how
far we still are from the all-time high of 5048 set 3/10/00, as
well as the more recent 4234 of 9/1/00.
Earnings news from the likes of IBM, Sun Micro, Microsoft,
Nortel and Intel dominated the action. What was fascinating was
what each company said about the future. IBM chose to declare
that it would meet the established targets for all of 2001.
Microsoft and Sun, on the other hand, were cautious and hesitant
about commenting beyond June.
At first, you could say, with all of the uncertainty concerning
capital spending going forward, and with the layoff
announcements just beginning in the technology sector (I”m
ignoring the Net and focusing more on early examples like
Motorola and Gateway), how could you possibly know with
certainty what the second half environment will be?
Actually, Wall Street didn”t care what a company said about its
outlook for the future. The day after Intel”s gloomy forecast, the
stock rallied…for a few hours…before investors said, “Wait a
second. What did they say?”
And there was Sun Micro, announcing after the close on
Thursday that they weren”t too fired up about the prospects for
2001. No matter. In after hours trading, Sun extended its solid
gains established earlier in the day, only to tank on a closer look
Friday morning.
But IBM soared Thursday and Friday, about 85 Dow points
worth.
So who”s right? As I keep saying, who the hell knows. But there
is one way out of this miasma and that is further rate cuts by the
Fed, possibly facilitating a quick recovery. I”ll comment further
on the topic, before the January 30-31 Fed meeting, next week.
And I”m not going to touch on the issue of valuation this week.
No, even though eBay (which had an excellent earnings report) is
back to 130 Xs its 2001 consensus forecast, that”s alright with
me. I”ll let it all rest for a spell as we celebrate the departure of a
president 50% of us despised, and light a candle for a man we
should all pray exceeds admittedly low expectations.
As for my opening this week, we all know that if America were to
really stop buying, much of the world would go into cardiac
arrest. As columnist David Ignatius wrote the other day,
“Globalization is a harsh God.”
Which leaves us with that sentiment issue I was tossing and
turning about the other night. Maybe the economy isn”t falling
off a cliff. Maybe we”ll muddle through. But on the other hand, I
also know this. Those investors who were slaughtered last year
are still feeling pretty lousy; the reductions in capital spending are
real and that trend doesn”t reverse on a dime; worldwide, we are
still faced with the issue of overcapacity; and, as far as upside on
the Nasdaq, concerns over valuation will eventually limit any
further upside. Bottom line, sentiment may change quickly once
again, but it won”t be accompanied by “Happy Days are Here
Again,” either.
Lastly, politically the world has been awful quiet when it comes to
my major hot spots. An eruption in any one of them would crush
sentiment for a long, sustained period of time. As I”ll point out
later, our luck in this regard may be running out. I suspect I”ll be
dreaming about missiles again before too long.
Street Bytes
–As every commentator and their mother said this week, it is a
truism that the new administration is as pro-business as you can
get. What was that Prime Minister Cheney? “Big time.” Thanks.
Also, a major tax cut plan would obviously be a huge plus for the
markets. And I would add as an aside, the current budget surplus
is way overrated, unless a major portion of it is given back to us.
–Bonds staged a strong rally this week amid the continuing signs
of a slowdown which should encourage the Federal Reserve to
move aggressively to cut rates again.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 4.80% 2-yr. 4.73% 10-yr. 5.17% 30-yr. 5.55%
And the junk bond sector is recovering rapidly. The new
offerings market has picked up considerably and it would appear
that money flows back into junk bond mutual funds are for real. I
know I”m happy with my own investment in this area, established
about ten days ago.
–Growth in the PC industry continues to slow quickly. And I
have yet to talk to one of my friends where they feel their office
needs to upgrade their systems anytime in the next few years.
–As expected, OPEC cut production 1.5 million barrels per day
in an effort to stabilize prices around the $25 level. West Texas
crude actually closed over $32, but remember, this is but one
component of OPEC”s official “basket” of crude…and the most
expensive grade at that. The basket price is currently somewhere
around $26.
The wildcard in this game is Iraq. Should they opt to continue to
hold back much of their capacity of 2-2.3 mm barrels/per day, the
price could hang out substantially above $25. And anytime Iraq
wants attention, they can just turn off the spigot.
Meanwhile, regarding my own position in the energy sector, I was
close to selling out this week due to falling sentiment in the
group, but a rebound Friday morning kept me from doing so.
Just don”t be surprised to learn one week that I”m finally out,
after two years. The story, particularly for the drillers and service
companies, is a great one, but if the Street continues to rotate
back to technology, energy will be one of the victims. And just to
ramble a bit more, the interesting thing is, of course, that if the
current slowdown proves to be nothing more than that, energy
will eventually rock and roll again. So don”t yell at the editor if
he dumps and then struts back in just a few weeks later.
–I received a great note from E.C. this week. He works with the
postal service and has noticed a marked increase in the amount of
certified mail coming from finance companies and banks, normally
a sign of trouble with regards to the individual consumer, already
loaded to the gills with debt. Will the folks receiving these letters
go out and buy a new car? I think not. That”s Peter Lynch-type
stuff, E.C.
–On the positive side of the ledger is a continuing decline in
margin debt from the ridiculous levels of last spring. [In
preparing my latest “Wall Street History” piece on the Great Tech
Bubble, I noted in my 3/18/00 “Week in Review” that margin
debt at the time was up a staggering 87% from a year earlier. Of
course this was the time of the Nasdaq peak.]
–Japan”s Nikkei Index recovered to near 14000 after the
government announced it was looking into ways to prop up stock
prices (and thus induce consumer spending), primarily by making
it easier for Japanese companies to buy back their own shares (not
currently as easy as it is in the U.S.).
–Chiquita is having financial difficulties, due in large part to the
problems they face in selling their product to Europe”s heavily
restricted markets. They stated that Chapter 11 may be inevitable
in a few months time. This could be a test case for our new
“super duper bankruptcy” label, which is to be reserved for once
top bananas.
–Real estate watch: The rental apartment market in Manhattan
has peaked after surging for 7 years. Asking rents are down 8-
12%. (But a standard one bedroom still goes for about $3,300 a
month!)
–Motorola is laying off 2,500; 3Com, an indeterminate amount;
and G.E. will eventually lay off a boatload…make that about 70
boatloads.
–A Gallup poll showed that 56% say the nation”s economy is
getting worse rather than staying the same or getting better. But
70% also say they are personally doing better than last year.
–Back on 12/23 in this space, I wrote of Barron”s Gene Epstein
and his theory that a good barometer of a true market bottom, IF
the economy goes into recession, is when the S&P 500 rallies
10% from its lows. In the past this indicator has a perfect track
record and it plays into the theory that with Wall Street being a
discounting mechanism, the Street anticipates when the economy
will begin turning up.
So I leave you with some numbers to remember, in the off chance
that we do actually have two down quarters in a row. The
current S&P 500 low is 1264.74, set back on 12/20. That means
that 1390 represents a 10% advance from this level. The S&P
closed the week at 1342. If we hit 1390, I”m going to buy
something aggressive to play around with, just to test the theory
out. But, again, it also assumes that eventually the economy
actually slipped into recession, something you don”t learn about
until after the fact.
–The Euro-11 economies would appear to be capable of growing
faster than the U.S. in 2001 for the first time in 9 years. Current
Euroland GDP growth is set at 3.2% for the year. Of course,
were this to occur that would also mean that as the year wore on,
more and more European assets currently invested in the States
would be repatriated back there. Ergo, not a positive for U.S.
financial instruments.
–I tracked the volume on the Nasdaq for Tuesday – Thursday and
found that the ten most active issues accounted for 17-20% of the
total Nasdaq volume. 8 of the 10 names remained on the list each
of the three days. Yes, as you”d expect, the money flows
continue to be in a selected number of stocks. [The 8 were: Intel,
Cisco, Worldcom, Microsoft, Oracle, Sun Micro, Dell, and JDS
Uniphase.]
California: We”ll see if the Energy Department and the state
government have been able to come up with a short-term fix to
their embarrassing problem. The state whose GDP would place it
#6 among the nations of the world, had rolling blackouts just like
those that afflict countries like the Philippines.
And this week many Silicon Valley executives stated the obvious.
They will have to begin moving some of their operations (they
already are) if a long-term solution isn”t found soon. Of course, it
won”t.
And there”s this. Traditionally, California ships power to Oregon
and Washington in the winter and takes it back during the
summer (to power their A/Cs). So since the reverse has been
necessary today, you can see that this doesn”t bode well for the
future. Oregon and Washington are watching their own reserves
dwindle to a precious few.
International Affairs
Middle East: A Gallup poll taken last week revealed that 66% of
Israelis feel war with the Arab world will break out this year.
You can imagine how this kind of sentiment is doing a number on
the consumer. And if I”m an Israeli, I certainly wouldn”t take
comfort in some of the actions by the Palestinians this week.
Last weekend (after I went to post) the Palestinian Authority
executed two alleged collaborators with the Israelis. One needs
to emphasize “alleged” because they never had a trial and never
even had representation at their hearing. Then this week, the
corrupt head of Palestinian television was assassinated by
Palestinian extremists, sending a message to Yassir Arafat that
corruption within the PLO was not to be tolerated.
There was a little blurb this week on Pakistan that I thought was a
good example of what I believe will happen in the Middle East.
Some Pakistani army officers have threatened to bring down the
existing military government unless it creates an Islamic state. Of
course, that would be a true disaster for the region.
And the feelings of Pakistani extremists are echoed across the
entire Middle East. It seems only a matter of time before the
hard-liners perpetrate an assassination on a major leader which
would obviously roil the region further.
China / Russia: Later this year, Chinese President Jiang Zemin
will be venturing to Moscow to sign a series of treaties, signifying
the formalization of ties between Russia and China. Outside
observers agree that relations between the two have never been
stronger than they are today. And this new strategic partnership
is totally designed to counteract U.S. preeminence around the
globe.
Russia will be selling increasing amounts of arms to China as well
as offering support for China”s space program. And regarding the
latter, this week China successfully completed a 7-day unmanned
spaceflight, a prelude to manned missions.
Folks, the Chinese are catching up quickly; all the more reason for
the U.S. to proceed with a national missile defense, albeit the very
program which has helped bring Russia and China together. And
thanks to some help from U.S. defense contractors like Loral and
Hughes, the Chinese are hellbent on becoming a power in space.
There is every reason to believe that”s where future wars may be
fought and the U.S. better keep moving forward with our own
space efforts or ten years from now we”re going to wake up and
realize the Chinese have disabled all of our satellites.
Hong Kong: Developments here over the coming year will bear
watching. The resignation of the #2 official in government was
significant in that she was a constant target of criticism from
Beijing. Many now doubt whether China is sincere in its policy of
one nation, “two systems,” when it comes to Hong Kong.
North Korea: Kim Jong-Il has been on a goodwill tour of China
this week, and, encouragingly, he toured a Buick plant as
economic reform appears to be foremost on his mind. The more
reform, the more missiles he can develop!
Serbia: Last week I may have raised an eyebrow or two when I
quoted an analyst who listed Serbia as a nation where democracy
is in trouble. But I thought Milosevic was gone? you could have
asked. But then this week, President Kostunica held private
meetings with Slobo and continued to refuse to turn him over to
the war crimes tribunal. You”ll recall Kostunica is now ruling as
part of an 18-party coalition. And many of these folks are none
too pleased that he doesn”t allow Milosevic to be arrested. So
we”ll see how quickly true democracy really takes hold.
Congo: Let this be a lesson to you, boys and girls. Always treat
your bodyguards well at Christmas time, or you could end up like
Congo”s leader, Laurent Kabila…dead. Kabila was killed,
supposedly during an argument over military policy. The
leadership withheld the truth for two days as I guess they were
contemplating a “Weekend at Bernie”s” scenario.
Congo is a microcosm of the whole continent. It should be a rich
nation as it is loaded with natural resources. Instead, over the
past few years, war has raged, with Rwanda and Uganda on one
side; Congo, Angola and Zimbabwe (along with other players) on
the other.
In his Senate confirmation hearings, Colin Powell stressed that
our neglect of this continent can not continue and we need to
become more engaged. I agree.
Colombia: The civil war is deepening as the rebels and the
paramilitaries perpetrate one hideous massacre of innocents after
another.
Philippines: Early in the week, it appeared as though the Senate
was going to acquit President Estrada in his impeachment trial.
The people took to the streets and the head of the military said he
was abandoning the president. Estrada said he wouldn”t step
down until he received immunity. 250,000 gathered throughout
Manila. And then Estrada resigned, just before “post time.”
Thank you, Mr. President!
Thailand: Get this. The new president-elect will have to stand
trial on corruption charges. Now I ask again, in light of the
above, as well as ongoing problems in Indonesia, why the hell
would you invest in this region?
Mongolia: A helicopter carrying aid workers to help out in the
aftermath of the storm I wrote of last week, crashed, killing 9.
But if you were waiting for a Yak update, well, nothing with
regards to the Mongolian (Central Asian) variety. However,
there is an auction of Tibetan Yak at the Denver Livestock Show,
this Sunday at 11:00 a.m. And where did I pick up this little
tidbit? Why The High Plains Journal, that”s where. [I”m sure my
mailman must really wonder about me. Without a doubt, I”m the
only guy in New Jersey receiving this great publication.]
The Future: Strategist Robert Kagan wrote a piece in the January
15 issue of The Weekly Standard on the security issues facing the
new Bush administration.
Thanks to Clinton”s failures to “contain China, to remove
Saddam, to maintain adequate American military strength, and to
even begin to deploy a missile defense system adequate to protect
the United States and our closest allies…
“In the next four years, either Iraq or China is likely to provoke a
major crisis that will require George W. Bush to make some very
hard choices. Indeed, it is possible to imagine crises occurring
simultaneously in the Persian Gulf and in the Taiwan Straits, since
both Beijing and Baghdad know that the American military will
have difficulty meeting two challenges at once. It is likely that
both crises will involve the threat of ballistic missile attacks on the
United States, its troops, or its allies. China already has the
capability to execute such attacks; for Iraq, it is just a matter of
time. And when the crisis occurs, it will suddenly become
bracingly clear that we have no way of defending ourselves, no
way of avoiding the blackmail that will be employed to constrain
our response, whether to an Iraqi attack on Kuwait, a Chinese
attack on Taiwan, or both.” You may now go about your
business.
Progress? [Part of my continuing series, soon to be submitted for
Pulitzer consideration.]
Amid all of the talk about Dean Kamen and “Ginger,” his new
project that we are told will change life as we know it today, I
came across an article by Frederick Allen in the February / March
issue of American Heritage magazine.
Allen writes of the search for “artificial intelligence,” one which
dates back to the 1950s. By the 1960s, many prominent scientists
were saying that A.I. would be prevalent in our society by 1980.
One of the leaders in that movement, Marvin Minsky of M.I.T.,
had to finally admit in 1982 that, “The A.I. problem is one of the
hardest science has ever undertaken.” And in 2001, we are still
eons away from solving it. [Some argue that Deep Blue”s defeat
of chess champion Garry Kasparov was an example of A.I. at
work. Most, however, say that Deep Blue was nothing more than
a bunch of calculations, not something that was mimicking actual
human intelligence.]
My point being that I will remain skeptical of Ginger until proven
otherwise.
And then, in a somewhat related vein, there was this quote from
Bill O”Reilly (“The O”Reilly Factor”) in Parade last week (hey,
every one is entitled to some fluff now and then!)
“Computers should be used to enhance your life, not run it. The
great experiences still come from in-person contact with others
and the world.”
The reason why this hit home with me was because the day before
I was at the local Borders, attempting to track down about 5
pretty obscure books. They didn”t have any of them, but I
proceeded to order them all right there.
The whole time the clerk and I were running back and forth with
each selection (Border”s computer kept telling us there had to be
one copy of each somewhere), I kept thinking, “I could have just
ordered them all on Amazon.” But then the salesperson was so
helpful that I also thought, “No, I rather enjoyed the personal
touch,” even if it did cost me a dollar”s worth of gas.
Political Tidbits
–Well, after the actions of President Clinton this week, I certainly
don”t take back anything I wrote last week. As columnist
Michael Kelly put it, “He was absolutely corrupt, and he
corrupted, absolutely.”
And I thought the PBS / Nightline account of the past 8 years
was terrific. But one thing you didn”t hear was a comment Ted
Koppel made when he was on a tour for his own book last fall.
At one point, asked for his opinion of Clinton during the dark
days of Monica, Koppel responded, “I”m not sure there was a
moment in that entire affair that he put the nation”s interests
first.”
–The Bush inaugural committee is rightfully receiving some heat
for accepting a $100,000 donation from the Deputy Prime
Minister of Lebanon (a wealthy businessman). The contribution
is legal…but you can build a case for conflict of interest. Ergo, it
should have been returned.
On a related issue, it is no secret that Colin Powell has made a
fortune through his various speaking engagements (one of which
was funded by the same Lebanese gentleman). But Powell was
well within his rights to make a buck when he first exited
government, just like Billy Boy can do starting Saturday night.
–According to a Washington Post poll, it”s only 50/50 among the
respondents for a tax cut. But 70% approved of Bush”s handling
of the transition, including 57% of Democrats. 8 in 10 blacks,
however, say Bush wasn”t legitimately elected.
–Of course, as to the Florida vote, an independent investigation
of the 10,600 “uncounted” votes in Miami-Dade gave George W.
6 more than Al Gore. Well whaddya know. And what say you,
Reverend Jackson? Oops. We can”t disturb him. He”s in
seclusion. It seems he was a very, very bad boy.
–Gosh I”m glad to see some grownups in the White House again.
Random Musings
–One thing I will never kid about is Mad Cow disease and the
resultant Creutzfeldt-Jakob affliction. From what I know, there is
no worse way to go than this. And while the news reports this
week were encouraging, from the standpoint that you get the
sense the government understands how serious it would be if just
one confirmed case hit this country, just imagine the media
handling of the story if we ever have to deal with it.
–Jesse Jackson: Believe it or not, there was a time in the early
1980s when I was a fan of his. This was the period in his life
where he spoke out against black youth who didn”t hit the school
books, while encouraging them to stay out of trouble. He had
clout and he used the bully pulpit effectively.
But then he veered off course and became the bitter, race-baiting
model for today”s charlatans, folks like Al Sharpton. By his
admission this week that he had strayed in his personal life,
Jackson proved to be the hypocrite that many of us suspected all
along. And sadly for all of us, those in the minority community
who may have viewed him as a positive role model, will now
simply shrug and stray off the righteous path.
In the town of Orange, N.J. (near Newark), there was a chilling
example of the attitudes that are still all too prevalent today. A
young black man by the name of Shantez Everett was killed in a
gun battle with police. Everett shot and critically wounded two
officers before he was silenced.
I was watching the interviews with the local youth afterwards and
jotted down the following:
“Shantez was a real good guy.”
“These cops are gonna go down.”
Yes, the cops were white. But Shantez was wanted at the time
for attempted murder. He was out on bail and had missed a court
date. You see, Shantez was really the scum of the earth.
Good guy? Cops going down?
Black America can choose to follow the path of Jesse, Sharpton,
and corrupt public officials like Charlie Rangel, or they can
choose to follow someone like Colin Powell or Condoleeza Rice.
I”m not optimistic they”ll choose the latter.
–Your heart has to go out to the people of El Salvador. When
you watch them struggling to recover from the devastating
earthquake, you can see the goodness in their souls. And I also
had the thought that President Bush can do a world of good in
this hemisphere over the coming years. We have neglected Latin
America for far too long. Many of these nations are teetering and
could slide back into totalitarian nothingness. It will be a huge
problem for us if we can”t reverse this worrisome trend.
–Timothy McVeigh”s execution date has been set for May 16.
But there”s still a chance he will seek clemency, forcing President
Bush to act. That could be part of McVeigh”s twisted endgame.
–In a survey of over 3,500 15-and-16-year-olds, 1-in-5 said they
had a chance of dying in the next year (the odds are really about
1-in-1,000). Unfortunately, there isn”t an easy answer as to why
these feelings exist…
–…Unless it”s all about the space station Mir, which Russia now
says will be maneuvered into a “controlled descent” around
March 6. As of now, my schedule is open that day. I think I can
deal with it.
–Finally, in this none too funny edition of “Random Musings,” I
have to get something off of my chest about the American Civil
War and the attitudes of the liberal media elite.
Maureen Dowd, the unreadable op-ed writer for the New York
Times (unfortunately, reading her is part of my job, however),
graced us with an offensive piece this week.
Dowd decided to write a column describing an imaginary
inauguration of George W., one which had a decidedly Civil War
flavor.
Ms. Dowd thought she was being very clever, writing that the
traditional Lincoln Memorial celebration was moved to the home
of Robert E. Lee (yuck yuck), and we learned that “Jeb (Stuart)
Bush” was in attendance (guffaw!). But then she writes of a
new web site for the Bush presidency, “Bullrun.com,” where one
could buy Confederate memorabilia. Hopefully, you know where
I”m headed with this one. In keeping with your theme, Ms.
Dowd, to Southerners, Bull Run is Manassas.
But for the purposes of this discussion, know the following about
your editor. I”m one of those Northerners who has a fascination
with the Civil War, probably along with about 25 million others.
It was the defining moment in our nation”s history and I have
quite a few photos and paintings adorning various rooms in my
home. Yes, I even have photos of Lincoln, Grant, Lee, Jackson,
and Gordon. Gordon?
General John B. Gordon was one of Lee”s hardest fighters, and,
while taking a personal tour of Civil War battlefields about 12
years ago, I kept running across his name. Gordon also happened
to be a key figure at the end of the war.
As news spread of Lee”s surrender at Appomattox, Grant”s
troops began firing vollies in celebration. Grant ordered them to
stop. “The war is over,” he said; “the rebels are our countrymen
again, and the best sign of rejoicing after the victory will be to
abstain from all demonstrations.”
Later, the Union”s Joshua Chamberlain (hero of Gettysburg)
oversaw the surrender ceremony. General Gordon led the
Confederates toward Chamberlain”s brigades, standing at
attention. Behind Gordon were remnants of the original
Stonewall Brigade, 210 survivors of four years of brutal war.
The following is from James McPherson”s “Battle Cry of
Freedom.”
“As Gordon approached at the head of these men with ”his chin
drooped to his breast, downhearted and dejected in appearance,”
Chamberlain gave a brief order, and a bugle call rang out.
Instantly the Union soldiers shifted from order arms to carry
arms, the salute of honor. Hearing the sound General Gordon
looked up in surprise, and with sudden realization turned smartly
to Chamberlain, dipped his sword in salute, and ordered his own
men to carry arms. These enemies in many a bloody battle ended
the war not with shame on one side and exultation on the other
but with a soldier”s æmutual salutation and farewell.””
We were now one nation, destined for greatness, albeit with a lot
more pain to endure. The above isn”t about the recent debate
over flying the Confederate flag in Columbia, or someone giving a
speech at Bob Jones University. It”s about the recognition of our
past and the acknowledgment that there were noble souls on both
sides. To the Maureen Dowds of today”s America, open up your
mind…just a crack…and let the light in.
Gold closed at $264
Oil, $32.19
Returns for the week, 1/16-1/19 [holiday shortened]
Dow Jones +0.6%
S&P 500 +1.8%
S&P MidCap -0.7%
Russell 2000 +0.5%
Nasdaq +5.5%
Returns for the period, 1/1/00-1/19/00
Dow Jones -1.9%
S&P 500 +1.7%
S&P MidCap -2.4%
Russell 2000 +0.9%
Nasdaq +12.1%
Bulls 57.0%
Bears 32.0% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
*On a personal note, today is a special day for the Trumbore
family. My mother and father are celebrating their 50th wedding
anniversary. Brother Harry and I are two real lucky guys, and I
know I speak for both of us when I say we couldn”t have asked
for better parents. God bless them.
Brian Trumbore
