[Posted 7:15 AM]
How would you like your analysis, top / down, or bottom / up?
Well, your editor has selected the former. To wit, the Big Picture.
Issue One: In the end, we”re all dead. At this point, some of us
will then proceed up, others down.
Issue Two: But as the latest population studies show, there will
be zero net growth in the developed nations (ex-the U.S.) over
the next 50 years. This has tremendously negative implications.
For instance, how the heck will Europe and Japan, whose
populations are slated to shrink by as early as 2014, pay for social
services and increased pension benefits for the aged? Few nations
are talking about this coming calamity.
On a related issue, for too long we have been fed a bunch of b.s.
by demographers and “age-wavers” who touted the tremendous
opportunities in equities because the baby boomers had no other
choice but to invest in the stock market. Well, unless we”re going
to crank up the Lawrence Welk bubble-machine again, and ignore
the issue of corporate profits, I say bunk.
Issue Three: As we look at the Big Picture there is also the issue
of global conflict. Let”s face it, we all despise each other (except,
largely, in this amazing melting pot called America, where our
problems pale in comparison to the rest of the world). Many of
us naively thought that the cameras of CNN would bring us closer
together. Instead, they have exposed deep-seated hatreds. The
Balkans, Indonesia, the entire Middle East, Congo, to name a
few. Then there are the broader potential flashpoints which are
about more than simple ethnicity. North / South Korea, China /
Taiwan, India / Pakistan. Modern weaponry, as well as the
increasing availability of simple conventional devices, has
increased the scope, while globalization brings to the forefront
jealousies which all too often have tragic consequences.
Issue Four: We continually ignore the fact that the rest of the
world can now make much of what we invented, cheaper. For
our leaders in government and business to think otherwise is the
height of arrogance (and was one of the major problems I had
with the Clinton Administration).
Those are some of the problems I think about far too often (for
my sanity). In the here and now, however, the biggest issue has
become the slowdown, not just in the U.S., but across the globe.
I led off this column on January 20 with the line, “It”s the world,
stupid.” And the world, even those who can”t stand us, still looks
to the U.S. for leadership. Alas, at least from our rapidly aging
Fed Chairman, Rip Van Winkle, there is none.
Now if I remember correctly, the real Van Winkle slept for about
20 years. Van Winkle II has been sleeping about a year now, so I
guess we have 19 more years of this wasteland…which actually
then ties neatly into my demographics conundrum.
Economist Ed Yardeni: “(There is) an unease the Fed isn”t
fighting hard enough for the economy.” Inflation, as witnessed by
the latest report on producer prices, is not an issue. Yardeni says
the real worry is “deflation.” [I”m not saying your editor
necessarily agrees with this last bit.]
Liberal economist Paul Krugman wrote that the Fed”s
reassurances that all is well “only add to the sickening sense that
the Central Bank doesn”t get it.”
Which brings us back, once again, to the health of the world.
This week”s story was primarily Japan, where, despite the release
of data which showed its economy grew in the fourth quarter,
appears to be in a tailspin due to the combination of factors we
have discussed oft before: terrible political leadership, massive
debt loads, and a populace too shell-shocked to spend even 122.3
yen (a buck).
This week, a leading rating service, Fitch, placed 19 major
Japanese banks on credit watch and rumors flew that one, Daiwa,
was about to collapse. Daiwa denied it. Then there was the issue
of U.S. exposure to Japan should some of their financial
institutions go under. Our analysts, eyes glued to the “Road to
the Final 4″ said, “Uh…what”s that? Japan? No problem…I”m
watching the game.” In other words, as I alluded to last week,
with regards to some of our own banks, you can take what they
say with a grain of salt. Many of them have no real clue.
And then there is Europe. Everything seemed just fine, save for a
couple hundred thousand head of tainted livestock, but this week
there were rumblings that the E.U. nations could be experiencing
their own economic freefall. The world moves at warp speed
these days.
So with all this as background, it”s no wonder that Wall Street
drowned in a sea of red. The Dow had down days in excess of
200, 300, and 400 points, losing a record total of 820 to close at
9823, its lowest weekly finish in a year (as well as the same level
of two years ago). Nasdaq fell for the 7th straight week (a 32%
decline over just that period!) and now stands at 1890, 63% from
the record high of a year ago.
It”s not even worth discussing individual companies anymore
because they all say the same thing. “We”re reducing earnings
and we really don”t know about the future.” And as for the
overall profits picture, estimates for the rest of 2001 continue to
plummet.
[But before I continue, let me make one thing clear. I will not
change my opinion that we somehow skirt a recession, though
0.5-1.0% growth will certainly feel like one. The problem is if we
have minimal growth, with a negative quarter thrown in here or
there, for the next 12 months…or longer. And that”s where
we”re headed. If I”m wrong on the recession call, however, I”m
not going to beat myself up like an Iranian who didn”t get his
Russian missiles on time. After all, I was screaming about the
tech bubble long before it was cool.]
How do we get out of this mess? Well, on Tuesday Van Winkle
II assembles his mediocre board of governors to decide the next
step on interest rates. It”s already too late. But the best bond
man in the business, PIMCO”s Bill Gross, feels (hopes?) that the
Fed may lower 75 basis points and then follow that up with
another 75 in April. If Andrea Mitchell”s husband is just looking
at the latest economic data, he can”t possibly conclude that we are
on the cusp of resuming growth at a 3-4% clip. Thus, if he
lowers rates only half a percent Tuesday, not only will our
markets tank anew, but every other long-suffering bourse on the
planet will as well.
What is obviously troubling about the past week is that the action
was so brutal it was the lead story on almost every newscast. It”s
that constant drumbeat that shatters confidence. I thought I made
just one bad market prediction in 2000, that being I expected the
bursting of the bubble last spring to equate to an almost
immediate reduction in both consumer spending as well as real
estate values. That wasn”t the case, but in December the
spending, both from a retail and corporate standpoint, slowed
measurably and now we are seeing the first signs that the real
estate market is finally tipping over. If this sector were to
collapse as quickly as the reduction in capital spending that we”ve
witnessed, then I”ll go from “barely avoiding recession” to
“Depression.” It bears careful watching.
Two final points. Perhaps one of the most significant lines of the
week, particularly with regards to my feelings on the future of
technology, was contained within a story on Charles Schwab and
Co. Schwab said it was dismantling some of its systems and
equipment because it has far more capacity than it needs. Think
about that one.
Lastly, I am supposed to speak to an investment club on
Wednesday, but they haven”t as yet called to confirm. [This was
set up about two months ago.] If they don”t, there”s your
“capitulation” that many of us are looking for.
Street Bytes
–Ahh, the flight to quality. Bonds profited, big time. And with
the federal funds rate currently at 5.5%, what do you think the
numbers below tell you about the future direction for that?
U.S. Treasury Yields*
1-yr. 4.18% 2-yr. 4.23% 10-yr. 4.76% 30-yr. 5.27%
*But remember, upside from here is highly limited.
–Investors have lost some $4 trillion in the stock market since
last March. According to Ned Davis Research, that is more than
the combined GDP of the UK, France, Australia, and Belgium.
But while the UK, France, and Belgium have mad cow, we have
mad human.
–Household net worth declined 2% in 2000 (including home
value minus liabilities, like mortgages) for the first time since the
Federal Reserve started keeping such figures way back in 1945…
an incredible statistic.
–Energy: While details are sketchy as I wrap this up, the OPEC
meeting in Vienna was a contentious one as participants struggled
with the need to maintain about a $25 price on oil (their need, not
ours) and the plight of the world economy. They have opted to
cut production in order to prevent a slide in prices this spring.
But tightening in the face of a global slowdown is extremely
risky. Personally, I think OPEC”s recent run is over. When
world demand was strong, it was relatively easy to keep everyone
in line. Now, each nation, both OPEC and non-OPEC (the latter
representing 60% of worldwide production), will be looking out
solely for its own self-interest.
As for the situation in California and the Pacific Northwest,
Energy Secretary Spence Abraham said that summer blackouts
would be “inevitable,” a major negative when you mark up that
legal pad with economic plusses and minuses. The drought
situation in Washington and Oregon is reaching crisis proportions.
And it”s increasingly obvious that California shouldn”t expect any
hydroelectric power help from its neighbors.
–Domestic airline travel dropped in February for the first time
since 1993. And those labor troubles are right around the corner.
–The S&P 500 is in the midst of its first bear market (20% plus
decline) since 1987.
–**Market tidbit you just won”t find anywhere else. The S&P
500 has declined every Friday this year.
–International market performance: London -10.6% (year-to-
date), Frankfurt -10.9%, Paris -13.9%, Toronto -13.2%, Tokyo
-11.3%. But Sydney is +1.3%. Gosh, I love those Aussies! I”ll
have a Foster”s, mate.
–As reported last week, in Indonesia they rip your heart out. In
the U.S., we have Nasdaq.
–Last week I questioned the veracity of Intel”s announcement
that they weren”t going to cut back on capital spending, pointing
to the situation in Dublin where they vowed to press on with
expansion plans. So what happens? On Wednesday Intel
announced they were delaying a $1 billion expansion there until
late 2002 or 2003. Just another lyin” corporation that, when
added to the rest, helps to chill investor confidence in our
financial markets.
–I have been meaning to bring the following up for some time
now, but, alas, a group of folks in San Diego beat me to the
punch.
You know that Oracle commercial, the one where they claim to
have saved $1 billion by incorporating their own e-business
software? Every time I see it I think, “What a crock. Prove it.”
Not to get off on a rant here, but there is a difference between
having some actors say Tide is the best laundry detergent, and
making a hard and fast claim of $1 billion in savings.
Or those commercials for Zantac. “What are you, a doctor?”
“As a matter of fact I am.” No you aren”t! You”re a friggin”
actor! I know this crap has been going on since time immemorial,
but why do we put up with it? [Maybe the tobacco industry has
learned a lesson in this regard.]
Where were we? Oh yeah, Oracle, and that sleazy chairman of
theirs. The lawsuit draws attention to the commercial and says
not only is the software riddled with bugs, but that the talked
about “savings” resulted from job cuts in an unrelated division,
nothing more. I would wager the litigants are correct.
–From Tuesday”s USA Today. Newspaper chains “have been
surprised by how steeply some ad sales have fallen.” One analyst
noted, “The valley is a lot deeper than media executives thought a
few months ago.” [“How Red Was My Valley”]
–Strategist Ed Kerschner, whose bullish prognostications on
technology stocks were as wrong as any on the Street, this week
lowered his earnings outlook for the S&P 500 in 2001 to -3%,
from growth of 7-10%. Just a slight change.
–From author Ron Chernow in a New York Times op-ed piece.
“Think of the stock market in recent years as a lunatic control
tower that directed most incoming planes to a bustling, congested
airport known as the New Economy while another, depressed
airport, the Old Economy, stagnated with empty runways. The
market has functioned as a vast, erratic mechanism for
misallocating capital across America.”
–Telecom experts Scott Cleland and William Whyman were
interviewed for the March 12 edition of Barron”s. Since I, like
many others, have been slamming this sector for over a year, I
direct your attention to these comments of theirs.
“DSL costs a lot more, takes a lot more time, and is operationally
more difficult to do. That”s on the supply side. On the demand
side, there haven”t been a whole lot of great applications out there
for which people are willing to pay. We are talking about price
points of $40, $50, $60 a month. What are the great
applications?”
Was DSL oversold?: “(The industry) went on an investment-
banking binge where an enormous number of lousy business
models got funded. Too many competitors got funded for a high-
fixed-cost industry.”
On 3G and wireless applications: “Looking at the business model
on these things makes me even more concerned. You are talking
about an expensive transmission telecom subscription and another
Internet service subscription. Are people going to be willing to
pay a third charge?” Not enough of ”em, mused the editor.
–G.E. commercial currently airing.
“What”s the matter, Lacey?”
“We”re running out of plastics for that cell phone project.”
You shouldn”t be, given the horrible sales reports coming in from
manufacturers and suppliers.
–And staying on telecom, in issuing its own dire report, Ericsson
revealed, “In Western Europe, in markets with already high
penetration, operators are delaying investments.”
–Warren Buffett, in his annual shareholder letter, blamed Wall
Street, rightfully so, for much of the carnage in the markets, and
he blamed CEOs for their “unwarranted optimism.”
“Many in Wall Street – a community with which quality control is
not prized – will sell investors anything they will buy.”
“By shamelessly merchandising birdless bushes, promoters have in
recent years moved billions of dollars from the pockets of the
public to their own purses…and to those of their friends and
associates.”
–Amazon Chairman Jeff Bezos told an interviewer in Europe that
he would not invest in Internet stocks. Huh.
–This coming week”s offering of Agere, the Lucent spin-off,
would appear to be critical, at least in the eyes of this editor. If it
bombs, don”t look for any comeback in the IPO market for quite
some time.
–My Portfolio: As I hinted at last week, I sold off my remaining
energy holding on Monday and Tuesday (thankfully, as it turned
out), and then on Wednesday, I jettisoned the mad cow play.
Thus I”m now 100% cash and bonds.
My oil play was for two years and while I still believe in the
sector, right now I simply felt that the big money had been made,
until we get a clearer picture on where the economy is headed.
As for the mad cow stock, it is still a good holding for the panic
that may yet hit the U.S. But it isn”t a good foot-and-mouth play!
Silly me, I wasn”t thinking that if just the thought of the contagion
spreading to the U.S. entered the picture, let alone an actual
epidemic, that would mean that should our own pigs and sheep be
slaughtered, there wouldn”t be any need for the feed, would
there? Dohh! Oh well, I broke even on it.
Lastly, I wrote the following last week: “I am also itching to buy
tech stocks for the first time since 1998. I may do it next week…
or I may wait a few months. It”s going to be a matter of intuition
(but) my eventual bet in this sector will be a short-term one.” I
don”t want anyone to be confused. I am not bullish on tech
stocks, as should be clear from everything else I”ve written in this
space. There will be a time, however, for a powerful relief rally.
I may just try and time it. Right now, I”m sitting it out.
*And I must say, my full-service broker, DP, was a good coach
this week. Everyone needs one. Whether it”s Tiger Woods or an
investor that knows what they”re doing most of the time (like
me), you have to get a second opinion. A good broker (or
financial planner) is worth his or her weight in gold (err,
palladium).
International Affairs
North Korea: Well, the lovely folks from the land with no food
turned up the rhetoric this week. Government editorials (there
are no others, actually) said “If the U.S. imperialists dare turn to
confrontation with the DPRK (the North), the army and people of
DPRK will take thousand-fold revenge on them.” And later in
the week, the U.S. was labeled “a cannibals” nation.” Where do
you want your grain shipped?
Of course this is all in response to the Bush Administration”s
harder line on dealing with Kim Jong-il. And the damage wasn”t
limited to the U.S. – North Korean relationship. The North also
abruptly canceled high level talks with the South.
But this all is really nothing more than what Kim has done in the
past. Bluster, threaten and then get the West to submit to
blackmail by sending millions more in food aid. Only this time,
Bush may not fall for it. The danger is, however, that Kim Jong-il
will simply lose it one day. And that”s why we have to keep
37,000 of our troops on the border.
[North and South did exchange mail this week for the first time in
50 years. I”m assuming there is some kind of grace period on any
late bills.]
China: The government, in its on again / off again charm
offensive, has invited President Bush for a visit this coming fall.
And they continue to generally tone down the rhetoric against our
missile defense plans (which really are nowhere to be found, by
the way). But, as noted before, China”s main concern these days
is our potential arms sales to Taiwan, the feeling being that we
will be less apt to sell Taiwan what they want if we view China as
less of a threat.
Russia: Iran”s President Khatami visited Moscow and Russia
agreed to sell sophisticated arms to Iran, as well as to help
complete a nuclear plant. Needless to say, the U.S. is worried,
big time, though it”s Europeans who should be even more so
since some of the weaponry could easily be targeted at major
European cities. And then you have Turkey, who gets seemingly
zero support from the U.S. and Turkey”s other NATO allies.
Both Russia and Iran hate the place. So what you have is
Russia”s cooperation in the destabilization of the whole region.
[Separately, Turkey”s current financial crisis means that as part of
any rescue plan, it needs to reduce its levels of defense
spending…at the same time one of its hated neighbors is ramping
up.]
India: Well, this situation bears watching. A new Internet news
service went undercover, posing as arms dealers, and entrapped
some of the government”s leading authorities. The bribery
scandal claimed the popular defense minister on Thursday and
calls for the Vajpayee government to step down are increasing.
Political turmoil is the last thing this region needs right now, with
Pakistan”s own government capable of being toppled with little
notice itself.
[For its part StocksandNews does have one microphone at its
disposal which, you”ve probably noticed, we deploy judiciously.]
Balkans: Not for nothing, but the next two weeks could be critical
as far as efforts to prevent another war. Rebels seeking to create
a Greater Albania have been clashing with Macedonian security
forces near the nation”s largest cities. It could erupt into urban
warfare at any minute. As interviews with common citizens on
both sides reveal, “We all have guns.”
Austria: Jorg Haider is at it again. Campaigning for his favorites
in Vienna”s municipal elections, he is employing anti-Semitic,
anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The Taliban: Incredibly, some of the op-ed writers have basically
been serving as apologists for the Taliban and their campaign to
destroy ancient religious symbols, such as the world”s largest
statues of Buddha. They say it”s no different than when Bosnian
Serbs blew up mosques (yeah…so?) and, as one wrote, what the
Taliban is doing is even rooted in Biblical tradition. Oh, gimme a
break. Tell that to the people of Sri Lanka, who are 70%
Buddhist and whose president traveled to Afghanistan last week,
pleading for an end to this barbaric action.
Many claim that those who are most upset are mixing art with
religion. I have thought long and hard about this argument, and
decided that those who espouse this idea are full of it.
Poland: Somewhat connected to the above is an experience I have
to share which I delayed talking about for a few weeks. While in
Rome, I met a reporter for U.S. News who was in town on
unofficial business, and, like me, was there to witness the
elevation of the cardinals. At lunch one day we got to talking
about our respective trips to Poland, mine being two years ago. I
asked him if he had been to any of the concentration or death
camps and Andrew said he had seen Auschwitz, adding that he
could never go back…too upsetting.
I then proceeded to tell him of my stay in Warsaw where one day
I hired out a driver to take me over 50 miles outside the city to
Treblinka. Unlike Auschwitz, there are no physical remains of the
genocide which claimed some 900,000 in just 17 months at this
camp (before the Nazis razed it to the ground for the purposes of
moving the machines to other locations).
My driver and I were the only ones there as we walked the
haunting grounds. I won”t lie, I largely had this feeling of
nothingness while staring at some of the monuments. But what
got to me was the single rail line that emerged from the woods
into the clearing.
You have to picture that there is little for miles around, in this
region, except for a few peasant farms, and then there is a tiny
village of maybe 10 homes, that”s Treblinka. As we slowly drove
back along the train tracks, I saw some of the peasants standing in
the doorway of their homes, staring at us. They were clearly of
an age that would have remembered the horror taking place in the
woods and I could only wonder, “What were they thinking as the
trains went in, loaded, and came out, empty?”
I bring all of this up because in Poland these days, a new book
titled “Neighbors: The Destruction of the Jewish Community in
Jedwabne,” exposes the myth that Poles didn”t collaborate with
the Nazis. [Jedwabne was the scene in July 1941 of a slaughter of
1,600 Jews at the hands largely of the Polish inhabitants of the
town, not just the Germans.] Poland”s current president
Kwasniewski recently told an Israeli newspaper, “There are
indeed black stains on our history and we will no longer be able to
ignore them. With all the pain, they must be exposed and not
plastered over. Whatever the background may be to this horrible
deed, one thing must not be forgotten: It was a mass murder of
Jews by Poles.” [Source: Peter Finn / Washington Post]
Every nation on earth has had its dark moments. And those
peasants I saw at Treblinka, witnesses to genocide, will always be
etched in my memory. It”s why I write of the horrible atrocities in
places like Indonesia. As Americans we can”t prevent every
incident of ethnic injustice in the world, but I”ll always believe we
can do a hell of a lot more than we”re doing today.
Mad Cow / Foot-and-Mouth
I really do try not to be swept up in all of the conspiracy theories
and doomsday scenarios that continually float around our modern
world. But there are some worth passing on, like last week”s bit
on the impact of a bioterrorism attack. And, this week there was
a report from Jane”s Intelligence Review that “The farming
industry represents a lucrative and vulnerable target for terrorism,
in terms of the ease of attack and the level of damage caused.”
The consequences could be as severe as an attack on humans.
So, undoubtedly, some (like my friends Chris and MR) say we
shouldn”t preclude the possibility that the current wave of foot-
and-mouth isn”t just such an action. And they could be right,
especially since proof of this kind of terrorism is so elusive. It”s
simply another thing to be vigilant about.
As for the latest news on the disease, this week everyone banned
pork, goat, and beef products from everyone else, as it spiraled
out of control. Britain may end up destroying in excess of
200,000 animals before this runs its course and the sniping taking
place within the European Union is escalating to its own fever
pitch. Ireland, for example, is furious at the U.K. for its handling
of the crisis (the St. Patrick”s Day Parade in Dublin had to be
canceled as a precaution). Business Week”s Kerry Capell
summed it up.
“Never before have Europeans been more dependent upon one
another, and never before have we distrusted one another more.”
Any dreams of a Europe without borders are a long way from
reality. They are only tightening right now.
Random Musings
–Lawrence Summers as president of Harvard? The former
treasury secretary is the most humorless, condescending
individual I have seen in a long time. I thought being a college
honcho these days was mostly about fundraising?
–On the other hand, there is the experience of Rensselaer
Polytechnic (RPI) in Troy, NY. This week it was announced that an
anonymous donor is giving RPI the largest single gift ever, $360
million, and it”s unrestricted.
–Oh, what the heck. Speaking of schools, my alma mater, Wake
Forest, was totally embarrassed by Butler in the NCAA tourney
on Friday. I am still shell-shocked. We were down 43-10 at
half! It may take our program years to recover from this debacle.
Don”t bother asking me for money!
–In a poll of 12-15-year-olds, “teasing and bullying” was the
toughest issue they face; “violence” was 3rd. Some California
school districts have begun to address the problem.
–Speaking of bullies, I was wondering where CNN
“Moneyline”s” co-anchor Stuart Varney was during this hectic
week in the markets. It turns out he quit because, among other
things, Varney was furious that Ted Turner said all network
employees who observed Ash Wednesday were “Jesus freaks.”
I”m assuming Turner was drunk again when he made the
comment.
–“Oy vey iz Mir!” wrote my friend Harry K. By the time some of
you read this, pieces of the Russian space station may be hurtling
toward your backyard, prepping the ground for that pool you
have been clamoring for.
–Uganda held a presidential election and the loser claimed that
there were more votes than voters. Shades of Chicago.
–And then there is Chicago”s own fake reverend, Jesse Jackson.
I let him off last week, even after his incredibly weak defense of
the accounting procedures employed by his various organizations,
some of which are now under scrutiny for violating federal
election statues. But you know what? Jesse is now irrelevant and
is thus this week”s recipient of my new “StocksandNews
Irrelevant Person of the Week Award.” [I have just created
another monster. Don”t expect this to really be a weekly award.
Call it sporadic.] Yet Jesse shouldn”t be the first recipient
because that honor will fall to Goldman”s Abby Cohen, as it is
clear that Ms. Cohen”s forecasts carry zero weight these days,
plus, in light of the fact that she never really went out on a limb,
anyway, she has been irrelevant for years. Winners can select
from a collection of the editor”s Y2K flashlights (batteries
included), or a can of Old El Paso Refried Beans (sitting in my
pantry for, oh, about a millennium).
But wait, there”s more. I”m listening to Marvin Gaye”s 1971
classic album, “What”s Going On,” and the track “Save The
Children.”
“I just want to ask a question
Who really cares?
To save a world in despair
Who really cares?
There”ll come a time, when the world
won”t be singin”
bells won”t be ringin”
Who really cares?
That”s it! Jesse ripped off Marvin!
–On a more serious note, Newsweek had a chilling cover story
titled, “The Web”s Dark Secret,” child pornography. Evidently,
within the next few weeks, the U.S. government is launching a
wide sweep against alleged consumers and customs agents have
secretly executed search warrants on several targets of the
investigation, who are also alleged to be customers of a Moscow
web site called Blue Orchid.
This grand experiment, the Net, started out as a simple way for
scientists to share research and it has instead turned into a giant
toxic waste dump.
–In a broad survey of Silicon Valley inhabitants versus the rest of
America, 27% attend weekly religious services. 41% nationally.
Now discuss.
–Bill Clinton was in Europe this week. Aagh! He could bring
back foot-and-mouth disease. I mean, it”s a given he was with
some real sows.
–Lastly, your Yak update: Born on June 3, 1927 in Paducah,
Kentucky, Homer Louis Randolph III learned to play the
saxophone at an early age and became so proficient that he ended
up as one of Nashville”s premier session artists. “Boots”
Randolph went on to have a Top 40 single, as well, “Yakety
Sax,” which peaked at #35 on the Billboard pop charts in the
spring of 1963. Randolph also recorded albums with the titles,
“The Yakin” Sax Man” and “More Yakety Sax.”
But friends, I also have some tragic news to report, news that just
came to light from the pages of Asia Week. Friends of Nature is
a Chinese-based environmental group that seeks to protect not
only the land, but also some endangered species, like the Wild
Yak of Tibet. [After they protect the Yak, they roll the Tibetan
people, I guess.]
“The work is usually unpopular, often downright dangerous,”
says Asia Week. “Many activists have received death threats.
And worse. Last year, for example, a member of the group”s
Wild Yak Brigade in Tibet was killed in a shootout with
poachers.”
A down ending to a down week. We”ll have just a few more
notes on the noble Yak, before we turn our attention to another
member of God”s animal kingdom. Perhaps the Yak”s cousin, the
Wild African Ass.
Gold closed at $258
Oil, $26.74
Returns for the week, 3/12-3/16*
Dow Jones -7.7%
S&P 500 -6.7%
S&P MidCap -7.4%
Russell 2000 -6.7%
Nasdaq -7.9%
*The numbers above don”t lie. A simply awful stretch across-the-
board and I have never seen such consistency in the indexes.
Returns for the period, 1/1/01-3/16/01
Dow Jones -8.9%
S&P 500 -12.9%
S&P MidCap -11.0%
Russell 2000 -8.6% [-27% from all-time high]
Nasdaq -23.5%
Bulls 50.5 [Remember my comment of 2/10 when I said the
bullish reading of 61.8 was nuts? It was.]
Bears 32.3 [Source: Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
