[Posted 7:15 AM]
“We will not fail…God is not neutral.”
–President George W. Bush
If the American people did not know what they were in for, they
certainly do now. President Bush’s speech Thursday night was
masterful. Our mission is clear and we will win, because we are
right.
As we enter this period in our history, we are all called upon to
do our share, whether it’s the men and women of our armed
forces, or the average citizen. Those in our military, however,
will be asked to do extraordinary things. All that is asked of you
and me is that we support them, as well as our president.
As for myself, I am but one small voice, yet you can rest assured
that the message emanating from these pages over the coming
years, and through the tough times that lie ahead, is going to be
one not just of support, but also a constant reminder to pray for
our brave soldiers. I have always looked at them in awe. I do so
more than ever today.
—
I must say the events of this week taxed this feeble brain of mine.
It gets more and more difficult to stick to the original format of
this column, and so with that in mind the following is a long one.
Grab a beer…or two.
Last week I didn’t get into recriminations for the attack and I
will say little on this topic in the future. And going forward, as
we are now all experts on all things military, and as we watch the
same analysts (all wearing the same black), saying the same
things over and over again, I will have little comment on the
actual conduct of the war. From time to time I may deem it
necessary to plug in an obvious point, but that may be as much
for the archives, to help me in my later research, as anything else.
—
Getting Back to Normal
Well, this past Monday night was the first one where I didn’t
dream of a chemical attack. Longtime readers will remember,
however, that I have often dreamt of North Korean rockets
slamming into Seoul, long before 9/11. But after just one
peaceful night I progressed to dreaming of all things nuclear. On
this I may not have been alone.
I also stopped crying this week, and I noticed a return to some
semblance of normalcy in the town where I work, one that is still
tallying up the dead. Life goes on and I hope I don’t offend
anyone when I say I’m ready for a little football.
But patriotism and a back to work, can do, spirit are one thing.
Wall Street is quite another. And looking back over the past
week, no one could have offered better advice than I did in my
last review.
“We have to deal with facts, and when it comes to Wall Street,
the fact is that right now, preservation of capital is paramount.
Don’t look to pick a bottom. Don’t try to be a hero. Don’t go
out and ‘Buy American’ if you are already loaded up to your
gills in debt…Take care of your family first.”
Here is just a sampling of some of the more idiotic statements
made either before trading resumed on the Street, or during the
week.
Senator Joe Biden [Sunday night on “Larry King,” forecasting
Monday’s market action] “After an initial decline, I predict the
Dow will bounce back the same day, just like Pearl Harbor.” Ah,
Senator, aside from the fact that it is not your place to make
market predictions, you also have your history wrong.
Jack Rivkin / Citigroup [On CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” before
Monday’s open] “You’re not going to make a lot of money in
your money market funds.”
Suzie Orman / self-made financial “guru” [Sunday on “Larry
King”] “I’m more optimistic than I was six months ago.”
Bill O’Reilly [Commenting Thursday on the “Imus” program]
“If (stocks) go down, that’s alright. I’ll take the hit because I
don’t want to give in to the terrorists.”
Richard Grasso / Chairman, New York Stock Exchange [At the
opening bell on Monday] “The long-term has never looked
brighter.” This was one of Grasso’s tamer remarks.
As I made clear last week, what upsets me is that these
comments are coming from individuals (excluding O’Reilly and
Biden) who have a tremendous amount of influence with the
average investor. Again, it is time for truth, just as President
Bush laid out himself on Thursday.
Of course we all believe in America, and capitalism, but there is
a way to address the ‘present’ with dignity, as well as caution.
Nasdaq Chairman Wick Simmons is one such individual. He
was a statesman this week. And I apologize that most of you
won’t understand why I’m attacking Richard Grasso, since many
of you don’t get to see him during the day, but he not only acts
like a used-car salesman, his search for soaring rhetoric (as if he
is running for political office) couldn’t be more inappropriate at
this time. Isn’t it amazing that Rudy Giuliani is receiving
universal praise, and there isn’t one line you can remember from
all of his news conferences and interviews? The mayor is the
very personification of dignity, humility and strength.
These shills have performed a tremendous disservice. And for
some of them like O’Reilly, it’s downright cruel to say, “I’ll take
the hit,” when you’ve got $millions still in your bank account.
So what did I do? I followed my own advice, of course. It is a
time to preserve capital.
While the market was closed I kept thinking of my junk bond
position, which was substantial. I always told you that while the
economy was softening, and my net asset value on the fund was
slipping, on a total return basis I was still confident as I awaited
an eventual economic rebound. But eking out positive growth in
the economy is far different from going negative, given the
handwriting that is now on the wall. The only prudent thing to
do was exchange my position into the money market option,
which I did at my first opportunity, Monday. I knew I would
take a hit to the NAV as positions were marked down following
the 4 days without trading, but I lost less than 1%. Since my
move, the fund declined an additional 2.5%. Other, less
conservative junk funds, lost far more. As of Monday evening I
was thus 75% cash, 25% equities.
On Tuesday I sold my small California energy play, at a nice
profit, but due to lack of liquidity it wasn’t easy. At the end of
the day I was then 85% cash. And that’s where I sit today,
though because of further depreciation in my remaining holdings
it’s closer to 87%.
What I’m left with is my Nasdaq QQQ position (about 4%) and a
natural gas play, 9%. This latter stock I first sold last February at
$63, bought it back a few weeks ago at $26, and now it’s $20.
[For new readers, I do not give individual names…QQQ is an
index play.] I am sticking with the oil stock come hell or high
water. I will unload the QQQ (purchased when Nasdaq was
around 1950) by yearend to book the loss.
Some of you may have wondered why a patriotic rally didn’t
unfold. The market hates uncertainty, and we have it today in
spades. Not only are we soon to be enveloped by the “fog of
war,” but we also can’t effectively gauge the economic impact
yet. The terrorists planned the attack long before the economy
was sliding. They were originally out to kill innocent civilians.
It is not an overstatement to say they also killed the global
economy.
Nonetheless, there are many responsible voices out on Wall
Street now proclaiming that after we have this severe decline in
economic activity, the economy will roar back, largely because
of all the economic stimulus that will be handed out by Congress
for the rebuilding effort, as well as the massive amounts of
liquidity that the Federal Reserve has injected into the
system…in other words we may have a “V-shaped” recovery.
I want to believe this, but it is far too early to tell. There are so
many moving parts, in both the war effort as well as the global
economy, that I must continue to take my own advice. I can’t
pick the bottom and I’m preserving capital as best as I can. If the
market rallies back at least my remaining equity positions will
participate. *And when I develop a sense that the economy is
close to rebounding, I will go right back into the junk fund and
add to my energy position.
We all need some time to think, collect as much information as
possible, and then make rational decisions. It’s been difficult to
do this these past two weeks. We’re all beat, tired, wrung out.
Unfortunately, the markets wait for no one; they have no
timetable. Or, as Wick Simmons said, “Markets will be
markets.” That’s the reality of it all.
Street Bytes
–The major market averages suffered declines not seen since
1933, in the case of the Dow Jones, off 14% and a record 1,369
points (to 8235); 1987, for the S&P 500, off 12%; and spring of
2000 for Nasdaq, off 16% (1423). The big issue is how do you
price individual equities in this New World? Wave after wave of
earnings warnings hit the Street. And traders, the most impatient
folks in the world, want immediate gratification on the war front.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 3.34% 2-yr. 2.85% 10-yr. 4.69% 30-yr. 5.58%
The Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate on Monday for the
8th time this year. Now you all know that 6 months after the Fed
cuts rates a 3rd time…oops, sorry, that doesn’t work anymore.
Fed Funds now stand at 3.0%. That’s the target rate, but the
market is anticipating further reductions from Greenspan in
the near future (with the next formal Fed meeting being October
2nd). The European Central Bank did its part to help save the
markets as it, too, dropped rates. It didn’t work either, at least
for this week.
–Two interesting tidbits…the dividend yield on the Dow Jones is
above 2% (2.19) for the first time since January 1997, and the
percentage of bulls, as measured by Investors Intelligence (see
below), is at its lowest level since September 1997. I’ll have
more on these and other statistics next week.
–Energy: Demand for jet fuel, which accounts for 8% of all U.S.
petroleum products, will obviously plummet. But demand for
gasoline may rise, as we drive out to grandmother’s house this
holiday season, rather than fly. Meanwhile, OPEC has pledged
to maintain stability in production and prices.
–Few seem to be talking about derivatives these days. But as
Jim Grant wrote, with the levels being reached in markets around
the world, you’d have to be an idiot (I had to slip this in) not to
believe that in some cases the “price movements are outside the
range of the likely outcomes built into the trading models.”
–European major market index returns, year-to-date.
London -29%
Frankfurt -41%
Paris -38%
–Advertising: I told you so. Back on 12/22/00, in a “Wall Street
History” piece I was preparing on GM, I uncovered this nugget.
In 1925, the total spent on all advertising in America hit $3
billion. We didn’t see that level again until 1946. I then
commented in my 12/23/00 “Week in Review,” “So when you
read all these projections on how ad spending will keep rising,
despite the dot-com crash and a general slowdown, don’t
necessarily believe it.” I’ll let you decide when you think levels
of spending will approach 2000’s mark.
–The Bass Brothers, one of the wealthiest families in America,
created quite a stir on Thursday when they sold $2 billion of
stock in Disney to meet a margin call. Don’t cry for them,
however, they still made a fortune on the overall position. The
forced action, however, was certainly the biggest example of the
danger of being leveraged in these markets.
–For the 5-year period ending 9/20, both the average science-
technology and short-term bond fund were up the same amount
on an annualized basis, 6.4%. [Source: Lipper]
–It seems clear that Warren Buffett backed away from a
statement he made just last Sunday on “60 Minutes,” when he
told Lesley Stahl that he didn’t have any intention of walking
away from a tender offer, just because the economy was now
under the gun. The next day, however, he pulled Berkshire
Hathaway’s offer for Finova bonds. While Berkshire could
claim it was referring to a second company it is involved with,
the tepid reaction of a spokesperson to an inquiry from Floyd
Norris of the New York Times would have you believe
otherwise. You can do better, Mr. Buffett.
More on the Economy
From economist Robert Samuelson: “Over the past decade,
America’s optimism has rested on a tripod of strong markets for
jobs, stocks and homes.” All are now wobbling. And if the
consumer were to lose faith, business investment certainly won’t
improve.
Consider the following concerning one of my favorite topics, real
estate. In 1989, 7% of new mortgages had less than a 10% down
payment. By 1999 this figure was 50%. [Source: Samuelson]
Given the continuing laxity in credit standards since ’99, you
would have to believe the figure is currently around 55%. IF real
estate values fall by any significant amount, these folks suddenly
have negative equity. As the unemployment rate mounts, it’s a
distinct possibility. I can’t ignore this when I contemplate the
opinions of those who are forecasting a “V” recovery.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said the attack had a “significant
impact” on the U.S. economy. Of course you could say the same
thing for the rest of the world. And consider the following
figures on the percentage of exports to the U.S.
83% of Canada’s
88% of Mexico’s
60% of Latin America’s
30% of Japan’s
22% of Europe’s
Yes, this also means that when we bounce back, we can lift up
the rest of the world, but for now every problem we see in
America is replicated elsewhere. Airlines such as British
Airways, Lufthansa, Air Canada, and Air New Zealand, to name
just a few, are all asking for government bailouts. Institutions
like Deutsche Bank are laying off 15% of their workforce.
The Fed and the federal government have now embarked on a
massive stimulus package. Spending will explode. There is no
doubt that most of what is being proposed is the right thing to do.
This is an emergency, and it is not a time to worry about falling
surpluses.
But with all the spending that is on the way you can’t discount
the psychological importance of going from surpluses to,
possibly, deficits. And you also can’t rule out the threat that
when the economy turns around, inflation could easily become
an issue. This may be far down the road, and is insignificant in
the grand scheme of things today, but it can’t be ignored.
Lastly, couple the coming stimulus with the weakening foreign
demand for all things U.S., like stocks and bonds and the dollar,
and you have one confusing environment.
The War
President Bush was very careful not to mention Saddam Hussein,
but there can be no doubt that Saddam is the ultimate target.
Because we need to hold as broad a coalition as possible (even if
it resembles the characters from the board game “Clue”), we will
take the initial fight to where we have the best evidence, all the
while hoping to squeeze Saddam’s neighbors so that they will at
least offer tacit support when we eventually march on Baghdad.
As for Pakistan, I would venture to say that no one has written
more for a general news site than I have. I reprinted some
articles I did two years ago for “Hott Spotts,” if you want a little
more background. Pray that the Musharraf government stays in
power. He is not a bright man. And pray that India doesn’t see
this as an opportunity to wreak havoc while Pakistan’s attentions
are elsewhere.
But as I said last week, there are some exciting opportunities on
the coalition-building front (and Colin Powell is the perfect man
to oversee these efforts). While you would expect Russia and
China to waffle on their support, especially until the mission is
more clearly defined, the fact is that the majority of statements
from Beijing and Moscow have been positive. And you cannot
underestimate the importance of Bush’s upcoming trip to Beijing
next month, as well as Russian President Putin’s visit here in
November. The timing offers immense possibilities.
As for Britain, how great a moment was that to have Prime
Minister Blair in attendance on Thursday? He has been working
feverishly to keep his European allies in line, and what is getting
lost in the shuffle is that he also had a phone conversation with
Iran’s President Khatami, the first such dialogue in over 20
years. I have always felt we should engage Iran. Keep your
fingers crossed. They hate the Taliban as well, and they
obviously hate Saddam. Who knows what kinds of deals will be
cut over the coming years? Remember how I used to urge
parents to encourage their children to study history and political
science? As you can see, the need for true diplomats going
forward is immense.
I certainly wasn’t amazed at the sudden talk during the week that
the U.S. needed to aid the moderate Arab regimes. Robert
Hormats of Goldman Sachs said, “This is a war you’ve got to
fight on the economic front.” Sound familiar? It was just six
weeks ago (WIR 8/11) that I laid out the case for $25 oil. I
started that essay out, “I’ve always said one ignores foreign
affairs at their own peril, and today is no exception.” I went on
to say, “We need $25 oil to prevent the moderate Arab states
from imploding. If oil were to fall back to the $10 level of just 3
years ago, with its devastating impact on government revenues,
the odds of Islamic extremists toppling the moderate regimes
increases dramatically, and this would mean not only Saudi
Arabia, but also non-OPEC / non-oil producing nations like
Egypt and Jordan, who receive considerable aid from their
wealthier OPEC brethren.”
I added, “With two generations of restless populations, and a
third on the way, these same Arab leaders cannot possibly rest
easy.”
Newsweek’s Fareed Zakaria had the following thoughts on the
coalition the U.S. seeks.
“(All these countries) must recognize that the world they have
gotten used to will not survive if America is crippled. The
United States is the pivot that makes today’s globalization go
round. If other countries believe in individual liberty, in free
enterprise and free trade, in religious freedom, in democracy,
then they are eating the fruits of the American order. And this
order can be truly secure only when all those who benefit from it
stand in its defense.”
One last note on this topic, if a nation doesn’t fulfill what I feel is
its full obligation (as may be the case with France), I will do all I
can to see that the country’s products are boycotted.
More International Affairs
China / Taiwan: Lost in the shuffle was China’s admittance to the
World Trade Organization (to take place formally in about a
month). But just as the attack couldn’t have come at a worse
time, as far as the global economy, China’s admittance will mean
an acceleration of the wrenching change, which, down the road,
threatens to weaken the Communist regime if the inevitable
unrest gets out of hand. Premier Zhu Rongji said as much at a
ceremony celebrating China’s newfound status.
“Friends, you clap, but we don’t yet know how much
competitive challenge we’ll face after WTO entry. My heart has
not yet settled down.”
And then there is Taiwan. We’ve all learned the quirks of fate
these past few weeks. My trip to Taiwan last week was, of
course, canceled. If it had gone through as planned, however, I
would have arrived late Sunday, just before the “longest-lasting”
storm in Taiwan’s history hit. Taipei, where I would have been
staying, had 32 inches of rain in one day (that’s not a misprint),
water up to the second floor of office buildings, at least 66 dead,
and massive damage to the subway system. Something tells me
“touring” would have been difficult.
But aside from the human cost of the storm, remember, this is an
economy that is already reeling, in deep recession as technology
exports dry up. It was the last thing this country needed and to
me, it’s just another nail in the coffin, as Beijing reels the island
in.
Indonesia / Malaysia / Philippines: Indonesian President
Megawati was in Washington to discuss the war and economic
issues with President Bush. The name Megawati is a misnomer.
Like Musharraf, this is not one of the brighter bulbs on the
planet; a scary thought as she heads up the largest Muslim
nation. And Muslims in Malaysia and the Philippines will be
hitting the streets as well, I imagine, in support of some of the
extremist elements.
Israel: I don’t mean to pay the ongoing conflict short shrift but a
tenuous ceasefire did take hold, though you’d have to be a fool to
think it will stick. It certainly isn’t in Saddam’s interests, and it
is Saddam who is increasingly influential in pulling not just the
strings of the Palestinian militants, but of the other extremist
elements in the region.
Nonetheless, there is another issue here worth following. Never
was it more important to engage Iran than today, because they are
closer than we’ve been led to believe to deploying nuclear
weapons. For its part, Israel has about 100 nuclear warheads of
its own, though it has never formally acknowledged this. It
appears to be getting close to doing so, if for no other reason than
to make it abundantly clear to all that they won’t hesitate to use
them.
National Missile Defense
I am amazed that after the attack, some folks still don’t get it.
Business Week: “Missile defense, for one, becomes a much
harder sell.”
Maureen Dowd of the New York Times: “Speaking to senators
last Thursday, Mr. Bush asked, What’s the sense of sending a $2
million missile to hit a $10 tent and a camel in the keister? One
might also ask: What’s the sense of rushing to create a $60
billion defense shield to protect against a Trojan horse?”
How stupid can these people be? Of course we have to beef up
our homeland defense. The clock is ticking on that front.
But consider what just happened. Clearly, there is nothing the
terrorists won’t use against us. Or as Frank Gaffney, a former
assistant secretary of defense said, “The attack showed a
willingness to attack the U.S. without fear of repercussions…
they are simply out to kill as many as possible.”
When I first started talking about missile defense, I used to say
that we didn’t want to expose ourselves to blackmail, i.e.,
Saddam threatening New York, or London, if we didn’t allow
him to retake Kuwait. Opponents would then say, what guy is
going to send a missile with a return address on it? To which I
would utter my reply, how can we trust the psycho’s not to cross
the line?
Now, however, you have a situation where blackmail isn’t
necessarily a scenario. After all, these guys don’t want anything!
Why wouldn’t they send a missile over, if that’s the most
effective way to kill the maximum number?
Racial Profiling
When the attack on New York and Washington first occurred,
one of my immediate thoughts was that I felt sorry for the
innocent folks of Middle Eastern descent in this country who
would be targeted. But there is another side. U.S. News &
World Report’s John Leo.
“To survive, an open society (such as America’s) will have to
become less open…(while) those of Middle Eastern ancestry
must not be demonized or treated unfairly. But under current
conditions, the ‘racial profiling’ argument simply looks quaint.
To ask America to refrain from heightened scrutiny of Middle
Easterners at airports, aviation schools, and immigration
checkpoints is unrealistic. The peril to the nation is so great that
changes of all kinds will come, many of them painful. What has
to be done will be done.”
Random Musings
–It would be disingenuous of me not to note how I often doubted
President Bush’s ability. In this space way back during the
campaign (11/13/99), I blasted him for not knowing foreign
leaders names, one of which, ironically, was General Musharraf.
And in the past few months I openly questioned his leadership
ability.
But aside from the fact that once we were attacked, I would fall
in step behind any president, no matter where our leader took us,
I, like many of you, have marveled at the transformation over the
past 10 days in George W. Bush. It’s been a wonder to behold.
–Gun sales soared. As for me, I have a couple of baseball bats
in my office. Granted, I was just a .220 hitter in my youth, so I
could have a problem.
–Now I ask you, how freakin’ stupid does Charles Schwab look
these days?
–Sorry, folks, but big cruise ships are out for me. If terrorists
could ram a little boat into the USS Cole, imagine how easy it
would be to do the same in some Mediterranean or Aegean port?
–More residents from my native New Jersey were killed in the
attack than during the Vietnam War.
–Bank One CEO James Dimon on the tragedy. “This is the
demarcation point between what was – The Roaring 90s – and
whatever now is.” [Business Week]
–The bounty on Bin Laden is $5 million. Raise it to $1 billion.
–Pray for the pope in Kazakhstan this weekend. It’s a scary trip.
–I love all these market history stories that have now come out,
including a few that would have you believe World War II began
with the fall of France in June 1940. I’m sure the Poles are
thrilled to discover this, since they were blitzed 9 months earlier.
–I read another terrific dog story. The Star-Ledger reported that
a local blind man, who worked in the Twin Towers, was able to
get down 78 flights of stairs with the help of his guide dog.
–Now don’t you see why we should have manned missions to
Mars?
–It was an amazing scene in Philadelphia last Thursday night, as
the New York Rangers played the Flyers in an exhibition game.
Incredibly, the game was stopped between the second and third
periods as the fans demanded to see President Bush’s speech on
the big screens. Chants of USA! USA! went up throughout, and
the crowd became so emotional, as well as the players, that both
clubs agreed to cancel the final period. God bless Philadelphia.
–So now we have been told that our defense department can’t
use the term “Operation Infinite Justice,” because only Allah is
capable of infinite justice, or something like that. [Though I
must admit I cringed when I heard President Bush use the term
“crusade,” but that’s because I’m part of that one percent of the
non-Muslim population who knows a little history, quite
frankly.] Since “Operation Kill the Bastards” probably would
upset some folks, as well, we should just change it to “Operation
Liberty.”
–We have a new candidate for “Domestic Dirtball of the Year,”
John Smeaton, vice provost at Lehigh University, who initially
ordered that flags be removed so non-American students would
not feel uncomfortable. Smeaton wised up, which may save him
from receiving the award.
If I were an alumnus at Lehigh, or any school that attempts to
hide under its liberal, elitist cloak (this isn’t necessarily Lehigh’s
reputation), I would withhold further donations. And if parents
hear that their child is being taught some pacifist garbage, I’d
certainly write a letter to the school chancellor and give them a
piece of my mind.
–You all need to know that despite my pessimism over the years,
I do not “short” stocks, something that got quite a bad name this
week. I did buy a Dell laptop, however, not out of any sense of
duty, but rather because I had budgeted for this purchase long
ago (though I moved it up two months). I love Dell and this is
my 7th buy. In fact when I hung up the phone I could say only
one thing, “Dude, you’re getting a Dell.” And as far as future
travel plans, I’m heading out west in two weeks, as long as the
little puddle jumper I planned on for one segment of the trip still
flies. So I’m doing what I can to get back to normal, except it
may be a while before I drink premium beer.
–In the 9/1 WIR, I wrote of the apparent conclusion to the U.S.
government’s investigation into the transfer to China of vital
missile technology by defense contractors Hughes Electronics
and Loral. As you watch the discussions on future threats to our
nation, including my defense of NMD, understand the following.
Throughout the whole Monica Lewinsky mess, there was a group
of us, the “William Safire Camp” for lack of a better term, who
kept harping on the real issue during the Clinton presidency, the
possible sale of missile secrets to China in exchange for
campaign donations. [Loral’s Bernard Schwartz being the
Democratic Party’s #1 donor in the ’96 election.] I would hope
that, today, all of those who once blasted us for pursuing this
issue now see the light. That very technology, plus more that we
may never know of, will be used against us some day. Not by
China, but by the rogues who undoubtedly purchased it from
some corrupt Chinese general. And there will come a day when
a fellow like Bruce Lindsey will give a deathbed confession, and
we’ll finally learn the truth. There’s a good chance that the label
“impeached” will be the least of Clinton’s worries when it comes
to the history of this nation.
And as we all know, Clinton just won’t fade away, while some of
his minions in the media contribute to the cause. Last Sunday I
accidentally turned on National Public Radio and heard Clinton’s
voice. He was doing an interview on the streets of New York
when a commentator said some things that almost made me go
off the road.
“It is very disturbing,” said the NPR communist, “that Bill
Clinton was in New York on Thursday (two days after the
attack), while it took President Bush until Friday to get there.”
What?! After all, you all know the real story, how Clinton
commandeered a military plane so he could rush back to New
York from Australia because he was missing all manner of photo
ops. And then the elitist, soon-to-be flag burning commentator
said that he was also disturbed that Bush spent just 30 minutes
with the families of the victims during his New York visit. But
the fact is the president spent 3 hours!
Bill Clinton, I beg you, get out of our face. And note to Hillary,
we all noticed your look of total disgust on Thursday evening as
you watched President Bush’s speech. Now we know who was
part of the 2% (NBC News poll) that gave the president an
“unfavorable” rating.
–The Clergy: Understand I spent all week thinking about what
I’m about to say. Some will still be offended. This is but one
man’s opinion, spoken from the heart.
I heard a disturbing story the day after the attack. Two friends
who I’ve known for about 30 years went to a church in Maine,
seeking comfort. Instead the minister gave a “Let’s all turn the
other cheek” sermon. My friends stormed out, as I would have
done myself had I been there.
I can appreciate how during times like this it is often difficult for
“men and women of peace” to balance the interests of the
country against the principles of their church. But this isn’t a
case of an 18-year-old boy around the corner, without a prior
criminal record, who suddenly decided to plug your neighbor.
Far from it. As Charles Krauthammer wrote, “Has there ever
been a time when the distinction between good and evil was
more clear?” He added, “At a time like this, those who search
for shades of evil, for root causes, for extenuations are ‘too
philosophical for decent company.’” [The last bit was from
Lance Morrow.]
There are some clergymen, like Cardinal Egan of New York and
the Reverend Billy Graham, who understand that justice must be
served, while at the same time stressing patience so that we can
be as sure as possible we “get it right.” No rational reader of the
situation could have any qualms with that.
But when I hear someone like Father Robert Drinan, the former
congressman and vicious anti-war figure from the Vietnam era
say, as he did at a CNN town meeting last Sunday, that we
should “Love (the terrorists) as brothers,” I want to scream.
We had a situation at the Catholic Church that I attend last
Saturday evening where the priest was totally insensitive to the
needs of the parishioners. We were there not just to grieve, but
to pray for President Bush and, most importantly in my mind, our
armed forces. Going forward, nothing is more important.
Nothing. I feel that Jay Leno, of all people, put it best this week
when he said, “This is the good fight.” Or, as President Bush
said, you’re either with us or against us. Thankfully, my friend
Jimbo assures me that in the town next door his Monsignor is a
walking advertisement for the U.S. State Department.
The church, temple, or mosque plays such a vital role in times
like these. And they all have a tremendous opportunity to hook a
whole new generation, one I have sometimes felt is bereft of
ideals and values. I pray our clergy gets it. I will lose my
patience if they don’t.
–Finally, like many of you I can’t stop thinking about those who
are always running up, while the rest of us are running down. 10
minutes from my office location there is a beautiful view of
New York. The place has become one of many shrines and
Wednesday afternoon I was drawn to the park to read some of
the handwritten notes that have been placed there.
[As written… sic.]
In behalf of Haiti
we want you to know that we love you
and our heart goes out to all of you who
lost a love one
We love you America
God Bless America
—
God Bless America
Poland
We stand with you
—
Thank you firemen
We wish you come back
Emmy, age 4
And from me, God bless our president and the men and women
of our armed forces.
God bless America.
Brian Trumbore
—
Following are the returns for the past two weeks. The first figure
for the stock returns is for the single day of trading, 9/10…the
second for last week.
Gold closed at $280 (9/14) $291 (9/21)
Oil, $29.76 (9/14) $25.97 (9/21)
Returns for the week, 9/10-9/14…9/17-9/21
Dow Jones -0.0%…-14.3%
S&P 500 +0.6%…-11.6%
S&P MidCap –0.7%…-13.5%
Russell 2000 -1.0%…-14.0%
Nasdaq +0.5%…-16.1%
Returns for the period, 1/1/01-9/21/01
Dow Jones -23.7%
S&P 500 -26.9%
S&P MidCap -21.8%
Russell 2000 -21.6%
Nasdaq -42.4%
Bulls 39.6% (9/14) 35.7% (9/21)
Bears 36.5% (9/14) 37.6% (9/21)
[Source: Investors Intelligence…reminder, there is about a week
lag in the readings.]
Notes:
To all my new readers, welcome aboard.
To send a letter to the New York City Fire Department, which
will be distributed to one of the firehouses, you can write:
The New York Fire Department
9 Metro Tech Center
Brooklyn, NY 11201
