[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Wall Street
No one forecast the kinds of equity returns we saw in 2003, not
just in the U.S. but across the world for that matter, and chief
credit for the performance goes to the comeback in the U.S.
economy as well as China’s ongoing boom, the latter helping
power the rest of Asia in particular. Both will continue to rock
on in the first half of 2004, but then I expect the brakes to be
applied, just as Europe and the rest of the world are catching up.
Focusing on the U.S., two players deserve to take a bow, that
being President Bush for his tax reform package and Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for holding the line on
interest rates at an artificially low level. It’s Greenspan, after all,
who has forced investors to take risk in light of the fact you can’t
earn a dime sitting in cash these days, so we dutifully complied,
rushing back into stocks and investing in ever more expensive
real estate.
Speaking of the latter, last Sunday’s “This Week” program had a
discussion on the economy between former Bush economic
advisor Lawrence Lindsey and Clinton labor secretary Robert
Reich. Neither one mentioned real estate and the huge impact it
has had on consumer spending thanks to the wealth effect, helped
along by the prevalence of home equity lines of credit and the
savings from refinancings.
So why am I not as sanguine on the second half of the year as I
am on the first? It’s all about rising rates, even if slowly, and the
diminishing expectations on the real estate front as housing
markets cool, which then spills over into consumer spending, the
early signs of which we’re already seeing, I believe.
And if the consumer slows, business spending, dutifully picking
up at the moment, will also slow. True, both will be growing, in
real terms, but at a pace far less than this ‘priced for perfection’
equity market now forecasts and the decelerating profits trend
that follows will lead to reduced expectations for earnings and
then sliding share prices.
All of this could be fairly orderly, except for the fact that this is a
presidential election year, we’re in the midst of a war, threats of
all kinds abound, the U.S. currency acts as if it has SARS, and
investors will generally start worrying about 2005 and beyond by
the end of the first quarter.
But a recipe for disaster? No. I see the Dow Jones finishing the
year at 9500, down 9%, but there will be a terror-induced “crash”
at some point, and / or a dollar-inspired financial meltdown. I’ll
just bet that governments and central banks will do all they can
to contain the damage and I’m assuming they’ll be largely
successful.
As for interest rates and inflation, I take issue with those who
believe the Fed will continue to hold the line. I’ll go with a 50
basis point (1/2%) increase at the May meeting, specifically, and
while this isn’t the end of the world for bonds, especially as
Greenspan then backs off until post-election, and as we will still
be at incredibly low historic levels, what will be damaging is the
bond market’s early maneuvering for 2005, particularly if the
strength in the economy fails to produce a positive surprise or
two on the federal budget deficit front. And I do agree with the
likes of PIMCO’s Bill Gross that while official inflation may not
perk up much this year, again, it’s the expectation of increased
prices in 2005 that will roil bond traders early.
Some other final issues: Job growth will be anemic as
outsourcing to the likes of China and India accelerates, while
energy prices will remain stubbornly high in the face of strong
demand and relatively low levels of new production. [This will
begin to reverse a bit, however, sometime in the second half of
the year due to the slowdown I envision, a mild positive.]
Lastly, each quarter I feel obligated to issue a warning. Always
ask yourself, am I prepared should the worst happen? If a truly
catastrophic terrorist attack occurs, can you survive not just an
initial 20-30% hit to your portfolio, but could you survive a
depression? While corporate America has been cleaning up its
balance sheet, the average household in this country is more
leveraged than ever and any shock to the financial system will be
exacerbated by this situation.
This isn’t a frivolous discussion, yet from time to time many
Americans continue to get swept up in the euphoria of the
moment, while ignoring both the lessons of the past and this new
era of ours, where the contents of a mere suitcase can contain
within the seeds of death. If you choose to throw caution to the
wind, good luck. You’ll need it.
Street Bytes
–It was another winning week for the markets, the sixth straight
for both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 and the longest such
streak since the rally off the October lows of 2002.
On a total return basis, for the year both indices rose more than
28%, while Nasdaq powered ahead an even 50%. Even more
impressive are the advances from the 10/9/02 bottom…43% for
both the Dow and S&P, 80% for Nasdaq.
Yours truly was far too conservative, though. Last year at this
time I saw a Dow Jones gain of 10% to 9200, 13% for the S&P
(995), and 20% for Nasdaq (1600). Not too shabby, actually,
especially since my previous predictions for 2001 and 2002,
gains of 5% each year, while off, were still better than 90% of
the other prognosticators out there. I also noted then that from a
risk / reward standpoint stocks didn’t make a lot of sense versus
bonds.
As for 2004, a survey of 66 equity strategists for Business Week
reveals a consensus year end close of 10665 for the Dow, 1166
for the S&P, and 2143 for Nasdaq. Since these figures were
collected about three weeks ago, however, the forecasts aren’t
that rosy following the December rally…basically 2-5% for all
three.
I’ll go with the aforementioned Dow 9500, 975 for the S&P 500,
and 1760 for Nasdaq, losses of 9-12% for each.
[I will post far more data in my upcoming 1/9 edition of “Wall
Street History.”]
–U.S. Treasury Yields
12/31/02
6-mo. 1.21% 2-yr. 1.58% 10-yr. 3.82% 30-yr. 4.78%
6/13/03
6-mo. 0.84% 2-yr. 1.01% 10-yr. 3.10% 30-yr. 4.17%
12/31/03
6-mo. 1.01% 2-yr. 1.82% 10-yr. 4.25% 30-yr. 5.07%
When you look at the year in total, the actual moves in rates from
December to December were minimal, it’s that volatility in the
middle of the year that roiled the trading pits. And for the past
six months or so we are back in a tight range, with the 10-year
stuck between 4% and 4.60%.
But bonds did take a hit on Friday thanks to the super ISM
survey of manufacturers and we’ll see what kind of follow
through there is this coming week.
For the record, following are the closing yields for 1/2/04.
6-mo. 1.01% 2-yr. 1.90% 10-yr. 4.38% 30-yr. 5.17%
As for 2004, a Business Week survey of 60 economists forecast
a 5.0% 10-year Treasury by 12/04, while an economist I greatly
respect because of his track record, Brian Wesbury, is looking at
a 6.0% year end figure and a Fed Funds rate of 2.50%. He’s not
necessarily saying this would be bad for stocks, though, just
more a reflection of the strength in the economy, but these are
certainly worrisome figures to me, let alone what they foretell for
2005 and beyond. [Personally, I’ll say 5.24% on the 10-year,
12/31/04.]
–Clearly, the U.S. government did not have a strict enough
program in place for testing for mad cow disease, and while
American consumers don’t seem concerned (I’m still not
myself), it’s the ranchers who get the shaft as foreign nations opt
out from importing U.S. beef. In the case of Taiwan, the ban is
to stay in effect for 7 years. Now the FDA and the Agriculture
Department are scrambling to make things right but for many it’s
too late. This is a classic example of institutional arrogance in
government, and as I noted when this story hit 2 weeks ago, one
shouldn’t be surprised due to the corrupt nature of the overall
food inspection business. Heck, muckraker Upton Sinclair first
exposed the problems in the food industry with his classic “The
Jungle” way back in 1906. At the risk of alienating a few of you,
I would submit not as much has changed since then as we are led
to believe.
–Australia’s cattle industry looks to be the big winner in the
battle to fill the void created by any bans on U.S. beef.
–All you’re hearing about these days is China, China, China, but
you can count me out of the China IPO game (once I missed out
on China Life). If we can’t detect fraud in “established”
companies such as Enron, WorldCom, and Parmalat, why should
we suddenly trust all these outfits in China before they have any
kind of real operating history or numbers you can base a
reasoned judgment on?
–The brokerage industry is now estimated to have earned $15
billion in 2003 (the record is $21 billion in 2000). It also now
employs about 803,500…a recent improvement but still off the
peak of 841,000 in March 2001. Of course when you compare
the minuscule penalties that have been levied against the Street
for its myriad of transgressions versus the $15 billion, it’s a joke.
–And then there is the widening scandal engulfing Parmalat as
the founder, Calisto Tanzi, sits in jail after admitting he had a
primary role in the fraud now estimated to be anywhere from
$8 – $11 billion. Two former CFOs are among those also now in
prison and talk about brazen, it’s been revealed that just this past
December 9, Parmalat was trying to sell itself to U.S. investors
(Blackstone Group). Meanwhile, the SEC has sued the company
over the validity of its bond offerings in the States and the
auditor, Grant Thornton, is an accomplice to all of this.
–But wait…there’s more…the still developing story of fake
financial advisor James Paul Lewis Jr. and his Southern
California Ponzi scheme that may have cost investors over $800
million. In a classic move, Lewis, who picked up many of his
clients through church (most of these sleazeballs do), would pay
off early investors with money from later ones. But the guy
wasn’t even licensed. Nevertheless, many of the 5,200 sucked
into the scheme gave him $millions.
–Dick Grasso, Part XXXIV. The Wall Street Journal had
another front page piece on Tuesday, further detailing how
Grasso ran the New York Stock Exchange as his personal
fiefdom, while all along there was virtually no regulatory
oversight. It also noted how the egomaniac installed a plaque
honoring the heroes of 9/11 on the outside wall of the Exchange,
though instead of it reading something like “From the members
of the New York Exchange,” it had his name only.
–As you know I don’t like to mention specific investment ideas,
but I have no problem in recommending PIMCO Total Return
Fund, managed by Bill Gross, as the perfect core bond holding.
Last January (1/4/03) I said the ‘A’ shares would return 4-5%
and it came in at 5.1%. But this year I’ll say the total return will
be more in the minus 1-2% range. And for those of you new to
the bond fund game, remember to always ask what the fund’s
“duration” is. As I’ve said more than once in this space, if your
financial advisor can’t explain the concept, fire them.
–The mammoth Fidelity Magellan Fund, which I’m sure many
of you hold in one place or another, returned 24.8% in ’03 vs.
28.5% for the Vanguard 500 Fund, the latter replicating the S&P
500. Because of its size, Magellan has been considered a closet
index offering, but with underperformance of 3.7%, why would
you continue to own it? [And with this comment your editor is
throwing away any chance he ever had at doing work for Fidelity
in the future.]
–I am a big proponent of free trade and globalization, despite the
pain it can cause some, so let me tell you a classic story of the
benefits, as I saw just this past week.
I’m association president for my townhouse development and we
were distressed last year when our property / casualty premium
for just 22 units rose from $12,000 to over $24,000. It was the
first real chance insurance companies had to ding everyone, post-
9/11, plus other outfits simply left the business.
Well this year I presented the complex with a budget forecasting
a further 10% increase, though I thought it could be even more.
[Coupled with early snowfalls, yours truly wasn’t a real popular
guy after threatening to raise the maintenance fee substantially
come early ’04.]
But guess where the premium came in at? Try $12,000. Yup,
right back where it was, though there’s a catch. The existing
carrier (as of 12/31) was going to increase the premium as I
projected, but the new policy is with QBE Insurance Group.
“Who the heck are they?” I mused. Why if it isn’t an Australian
company, looking to make its niche in the U.S. market.
That, my friends, is as good an illustration of the many benefits
of globalization as you’ll ever find. It’s also what faces those on
mainland China, as Citigroup and HSBC salivate over the just
announced approval of their applications to market credit cards
there.
Now ask me if I love the Aussies? Foster’s on me!
–No one is saying anything about Gateway’s trademark cows
and the company’s severe underperformance the past few years.
But now it’s all coming together. Gateway must be using
“downer” cows.
–Since downer cattle will now be prohibited from entering the
U.S. food supply, we welcome them as readers of
StocksandNews.
–My portfolio: I finished the year somewhere in the
neighborhood of up 10-12%, that’s it, but lest you feel sorry for
me I made money in each of 2000, 2001 and 2002. As long-time
readers know, I’ve not only carried a considerable cash position
at all times, I’ve also had a vast majority of my assets in energy-
related issues. But while I avoided the carnage in Nasdaq, this
year I didn’t participate in the tech gains as my oil shares lagged
until recently, though even now they still haven’t broken through
in the manner I’m expecting. Unfortunately, “momentum”
players tend to avoid the sector and this is once again a
momentum market.
This week I jettisoned my carbon fiber play when the company
announced it was delaying the filing of its 10-K. I’m not one to
hang around and ask ‘why?’ in these situations. At least I still
made good money in what was admittedly too great a
speculation. I then bought another oil driller with some of the
proceeds and I now sit with about 40% in equities, 60% cash.
It’s one refiner, 4 drillers (32% overall in energy, including a
highly speculative play in Poland that I might dump this coming
week), Japan (4%), a drug company comeback play (2%),
Internet telephony (2%) and this miniscule eBay ‘put’ position
that I stupidly bought because I mentioned it too many times in
this space and felt obligated to act on my words. I’m down a
little and it gets probably just one more week of airtime.
But what were my big mistakes in 2003? Aside from being too
conservative, which I still think is an attribute these days, I
simply sold some of my holdings too soon, though this was in
keeping with my overall market view that the Dow and S&P 500
would end up just 10-13% higher. For example (rounding off):
Telecom New Zealand…purchased at $20, sold at $23, now $28.
Asia-Pacific Fund…purchased at $7, sold at $7 when SARS hit,
now $11.
India Fund…purchased at $10, sold at $16, now $26! [And all in
8 months.]
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
But what was even stupider was my lackadaisical attitude to my
cash position, the yield on which dwindled to nothing while I
cared more about choosing a place in the Meadowlands to hide
it. It’s not that I got the direction of the economy wrong, after
all, so why I didn’t put some in a high yield fund I’ll never know.
I kept thinking “the run is over” in the sector, and then I missed
another 15% or so. The average junk fund rose 28% on the year
and having invested in the sector before I should have known
better.
Well, that’s it for now, except I’ll tell you I’m increasingly using
long-term call options, deep in the money, as a conservative /
aggressive way to play things. My pharm investment is a Jan.
’06 call, for example, and the refiner (my biggest dollar winner)
is a Jan. ’05 position purchased early last year.
International Affairs…What can go right? What can go wrong?
Iraq: A senior administration official, in discussing how
reconstruction plans have gone awry, told the Washington Post
that “ideology has become subordinated to the schedule” and the
need to turn over all government authority to the Iraqis by July
1st. Plans for mass privatizations have been shelved, along with
most other market-oriented reforms, but that’s what happens
when you brush up against a U.S. presidential election.
It’s also increasingly apparent that it will be virtually impossible
to come up with a government satisfactory to Iraq’s main
factions in such a short period of time.
But aside from Iraq, what else could go wrong, or right, this
year? Let me set it up by saying I was probably one of just a
handful in the world who opted to spend New Year’s Eve
watching the Stanley Kramer classic from 1959, “On The
Beach,” the tale of the aftermath of a nuclear war, with the movie
set in Melbourne, Australia, the last large population base to be
overcome by the fallout as it spread around the globe. “How did
it start?” some of the characters continually ask the American,
Australian and British officers. Probably an accident that then
escalated into Armageddon.
[Don’t worry, I followed “On The Beach” with a more uplifting
documentary on the British rock group, the Yardbirds. Then
again, they kept losing lead guitarists.]
Of course anyone with half a brain knows that nuclear conflict is
still a very real danger, only in the past few years we’ve added
the terrorist angle, and it’s why I keep harping on Russia and the
huge stockpiles in that country, many unguarded and wide open
to theft, let alone for the use of a rogue general…of which there
are many prospects.
And of course North Korea and Iran present their own challenges
on this front, as does Pakistan. So to sum up…
North Korea: Don’t get swept up in the talk this weekend that the
North will allow U.S. representatives to visit the nuke factory at
Yongbyon, the first such inspection in a year. As one South
Korean official put it, it won’t really be an inspection.
Nonetheless, in the category of “what can go right?” we can all
only hope skillful diplomacy carries the day before Kim Jong il
crosses the line.
Iran: No doubt the earthquake has opened up the potential for
dialogue, even if the mullahs currently dismiss it. To take the
optimistic side, maybe this also encourages another attempt at a
student-led popular uprising, as they see their opening, knowing
that this time the U.S. is there to lend support.
Russia: The presidential election is just 10 weeks away. Putin’s
puppet parliament will then amend the constitution to allow him
to run for a 3rd term in 2008. The real issue, aside from the
weapons bazaar, is how Putin handles former Soviet satellites
such as Georgia…and to see what the rest of the world lets him
get away with.
China: If Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian wins re-election in
March, it could spell trouble. Taiwan’s growing push for
independence won’t be taken well by an increasingly
nationalistic mainland. [I’m not saying I don’t want Chen to
win…I do.]
Israel: Forget the building of the security wall and the continuing
violence, a chemical or biological weapons attack here would
quickly engulf the entire region in war.
Saudi Arabia: It’s all about the internal conflict in the Kingdom
between de factor leader Crown Prince Abdullah, a moderate,
and his interior minister, Prince Nayef, a Wahhabist. Saudi
Arabia could be ‘hot’ far quicker than now anticipated.
SARS: Still capable of wreaking havoc, as are any number of
other diseases, most of which we have no names for yet.
Among the things that could go right is Syria’s outright collapse
or acquiescence under intense Western pressure to a Libya-style
deal, thus putting a further strain on Iran’s mullahs.
Or we could catch Osama, which would be a huge pick me up,
but not the end of the threat.
But I do have one message for the Bush administration, and all
future administrations for that matter. The United States needs to
treat its friends well. Nations such as Poland are sharing the
responsibility for the war on terror, let alone bigger players such
as Britain and Australia. They deserve a share in the spoils. We
here cannot talk just of winning the hearts and minds in Iraq.
How about ensuring the support of our allies for future
generations to come? It’s so simple, and yet we often do such a
lousy job of it.
More Tidbits
China: Aside from Taiwan, 2004 is all about how the
government handles the investment bubble. But I need to
follow-up on last week’s discussion concerning the rising
nationalism in China, particularly among the young people. A
Japanese columnist, Yoichi Funahashi, explained in an editorial
for the International Herald Tribune that the leadership in Beijing
desires a “peaceful ascendancy,” yet encourages the poison that
finds its way onto the Internet. The web is filled with anti-
American diatribes, with perhaps a classic example of this being
the fact that in a recent poll, 90% still feel the CIA planted
SARS.
Meanwhile, a leading Falun Gong member apparently died from
a beating in a Chinese prison, but the government is covering it
up. [South China Morning Post.]
And on New Year’s Day, 100,000 marched for an accelerated
transition to full democracy in Hong Kong. We wish them
God’s speed.
Russia: As oil giant Yukos faces accusations from the Kremlin
that it owes $3.3 billion in back taxes, President Putin said the
government will look into all of the 1990s privatizations. Higher
taxes for the energy industry are a certainty. Putin did do
something that should benefit the average Russia, this being the
creation of a deposit insurance program whereby up to $3,400 in
savings will now be guaranteed, thus giving folks an incentive to
take the money out of their mattresses.
Meanwhile, as the March election rapidly approaches, a self-
made businesswoman, Irina Khakamada, has thrown her hat in
the ring. Higher profile candidates, such as Communist Party
boss Gennadi Zyuganov, opted not to run in the face of Putin’s
80% approval rating.
Also, Georgia holds its first elections this weekend following the
ouster of Eduard Shevardnadze. This is as much about Russia as it
is Georgia.
Afghanistan: The loya jirga, a national assembly, has
degenerated into a mess as Hamid Karzai struggles to keep
a strong presidency in the new constitution
Pakistan: As a New York Times editorial put it, “What’s going
on here?” Last week President / General Musharraf gave up his
role as chief of the military, effective this coming December,
meaning the Islamists control all aspects of the army, including
the nukes, while this past week he won a vote in parliament
allowing him to continue as the ‘un-elected’ president through
2007. Meanwhile, Musharraf continues to seek peace with India
over Kashmir.
Saudi Arabia: Authorities foiled a scary plot where one or two
small planes, packed with explosives, would hit commercial
airlines on the runway or shortly after takeoff.
Israel: One thing to watch in 2004 is the potential for major
conflict between the state and radical settlers if the Sharon
government proceeds with plans to dismantle some of the more
controversial settlements. As for Syria and its recent overtures
for peace talks, Israel refuses to budge on the issue of returning
the Golan Heights, first won by Israel in the 1967 war. I sure as
heck wouldn’t give it back. Strategically, it’s a must.
Turkey: Hardline Turkish Cypriot President Denktash has
relented, partially, and is giving a pro-E.U. party one month to
form a new government after the deadlocked parliamentary vote.
Should the opposition be able to do so, it would be a big step
forward for Turkey’s E.U. bid.
Serbia: Candidates allied to Slobodan Milosevic scored big gains
in parliamentary elections, forcing all of the pro-democracy
parties to form an alliance to gain a majority. Milosevic himself
won a seat, even though he sits on trial in The Hague for his war
crimes, along with another leader of the Serbian Radical Party,
also in jail at The Hague. This is a sleeper ‘hot spot,’ perhaps
not for another year, but it has the potential to be disruptive,
particularly on the immigration front as any internal chaos leads
to an exodus, often to countries who don’t want the refugees.
Brazil: Hey, what’s going on here? Brazil now says that by mid-
2004 it will be able to produce enriched uranium but it refuses to
grant inspections to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
During the military dictatorship of 1964-85, Brazil pursued a
clandestine nuclear program (as did Argentina) but then
abandoned it. There is no cause for concern these days, but it’s a
reminder to the Bush administration to make sure it keeps its
eyes on the region. For now, Brazil is just looking for respect.
Britain: The debate over the run-up to the war in Iraq is going to
heat up again with the revelation that intelligence agency MI6
was planting stories about Saddam’s weapons of mass
destruction. And you know who is a key figure here? American
Scott Ritter, who was aiding MI6 at one point and now calls their
evidence “garbage.”
So I went back through my archives and I believe this is the last
time I referred to Ritter, 9/14/02, when he was being blasted for
being a traitor to the U.S. for his support of Saddam.
“…I can’t help but wonder if Ritter isn’t a double, or triple,
agent. This is one of the most complex individuals you’ll ever
come across.”
Yup.
And sticking to the WMD front, the resignation of David Kay is
a potential problem for the Bush administration if he says too
much in public about his role as chief weapons inspector. For
starters, Kay was evidently frustrated at having so many
resources shifted to combating the insurgency, but what if he
goes on “60 Minutes” and spills his guts out?
Random Musings
–My wish in 2004 is for President Bush to veto something, just
one spending bill, please? I have been all for the tax cuts (except
on dividends), which have obviously had a most favorable
impact on the economy thus far, but the lack of discipline on the
spending front is appalling.
–I’m heading to New Hampshire in two weeks to check out
Howard Dean’s campaign in the days leading up to the January
27 primary. I fail to see what his supporters do. Maybe they’re
aliens?
–In case you missed it, with the holidays and all, Dean said we
shouldn’t “prejudge” bin Laden.
–I was touched by a “Today Show” interview with Pat and Ernie
Bechler, parents of former major league pitcher Steve Bechler
whose death due to complications caused by his use of ephedra
was instrumental in the government finally banning the dietary
supplement. There they sat in their home in Medford, Oregon, a
shrine to their son in the background. You could just tell they
were among the best this country has to offer.
–We note the deaths of the 5 Bulgarian and 2 Thai soldiers
fighting with the coalition in Iraq, a stark reminder that it is more
than just the U.S. and Britain, and you can rest assured these
killings are huge stories in their native countries. Hopefully,
they’re treated as heroes.
–It was kind of weird that President Bush didn’t show his face
for a week until New Year’s Day. Almost makes you wonder if
he wasn’t holding secret talks in Crawford with someone deemed
too controversial for the moment.
–The daily cost for a family to camp in a California state park is
going up from an average of $13 to $25 a day. No word on
whether bears will at least place mints on your pillow before you
retire for the evening.
–In a list of 15 large nations, China is last in wine consumption
per person. France is #1 at 55 liters, annually, while the average
in China is just 0.5. [The U.S. is at 7.6] Ergo, another uncorked
market.
–I have a new pet peeve. Cats are killing off our bird
population. Some studies estimate that the 76 million housecats
in this country, along with 60-100 million strays and feral ones,
are conservatively responsible for the deaths of 1 billion birds a
year. So keep them inside. I want my birds!
–We are keeping our fingers crossed over the pending landing of
the U.S. Mars lander today. Another is due January 24. If they
both disappear, though, then we know that, coupled with the loss
of Beagle 2, we have a real problem with this planet. Still no
ransom notes, however.
–And remember, this year make sure you wash your hands at
least ten times a day. You’ll thank me for it.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $416 for the year and the week.
Oil, $32.52 for both as well. [The average price of crude in 2003
was $30.98, a 20-year high.]
Returns for the week 12/29-1/2
Dow Jones +0.8% [10409]
S&P 500 +1.2% [1108]
S&P MidCap +0.6%
Russell 2000 +1.1%
Nasdaq +1.7% [2006, 2-year high]
Returns for 2003
Dow Jones +28.3%*…+25.3% not including dividends
S&P 500 +28.7%*…+26.4%
S&P MidCap+34.0%
Russell 2000 +45.4%
Nasdaq +50.0%
*Total return.
Bulls 58.3%
Bears 19.4% [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence. Due to
advisors being on vacation, these readings were unchanged from
the prior week.]
Have a great 2004. A safe one.
Brian Trumbore
