[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
“In each of us, there’s such a potential for good, and there’s such
a potential for evil.”
–Carl Wilkens, an aid worker and the only American to remain
in Rwanda’s capital, April 1994.
It’s a bit ironic that the same week we mark the 10th anniversary
of the start of the slaughter in Rwanda, the darkest day in history
for the United Nations and President William Jefferson Clinton,
we saw another example of how God’s experiment with mankind
has gone terribly wrong with the barbarity in Fallujah, Iraq.
As filed by a Reuters reporter, shortly after four American
security personnel met their end.
“At least three people were killed, and parts of their charred
bodies hung from a pole near their burning cars. Iraqis threw
stones at a corpse still inside one of two cars engulfed in flames
in the volatile town…
“Pictures showed at least one person kicking a burned corpse and
stamping on its head…Other pictures showed chanting Iraqis
dragging a badly burned corpse through the streets and fanning
the flames on a body by dousing it with petrol. Witnesses said
two corpses were also hung from a bridge and later taken down.”
This particular report didn’t specifically include the fact some of
the bodies were torn apart. 10 years ago…800,000 were hacked
to pieces.
As man struggles to learn the lessons of history, let’s hope we
take something away from both Rwanda and Fallujah. PBS’
“Frontline” had a brilliant documentary this past week on the
Rwandan genocide. Every person on the planet should have to
watch it. While brave individuals – like the staff at the U.S.
embassy in Kigali, Carl Wilkens, and one of history’s true tragic
figures General Romeo Dallaire, head of the overwhelmed and
under-supported U.N. peacekeeping force – tried against all odds
to prevent the carnage, and then once it started save innocent
lives, the U.N.’s Kofi Annan, President Clinton, and countless
European officials did nothing. Anthony Lake, Clinton’s
National Security Advisor at the time, at least had the courage to
stand up for an interview and admit Rwanda “never became a
serious issue” and the pitiful Madeleine Albright, then U.S.
ambassador to the U.N., tried to color her own role by saying she
did all she could while being unable to convince the likes of
Lake on up to Clinton that even a minimal amount of support
could have made a huge difference.
At the end of the documentary, though, there was Bill Clinton on
his 1998 visit to Rwanda, apologizing. Some of you won’t forget
that scene. But as “Frontline” reminded us, “he never said he
was sorry,” and then you saw classic Clinton footage of him
explaining to a group of college students, in an all too casual
way, that if the U.S. had sent “500 or 1,000 troops” we could
have saved 100,000 or more.
I’m sorry, folks, to take this detour from the events of the past
week, but when I think of the presidency of Bill Clinton, I don’t
think of Monica and the negative impact on our nation’s
morality, especially with our young people, as troubling as it is.
You shouldn’t be surprised that I focus instead on the bigger
picture. Selling the U.S. out to China, for example, something
for which we may pay a catastrophic price down the road. Or an
episode like Rwanda.
I’ve been doing a little reading on one of our nation’s most
underrated presidents, William McKinley, who had he not been
assassinated 6 months into his second term would have been
placed in the upper echelon of American leaders rather than in
the middle of the pack. McKinley was a strategic thinker on par
with anyone, including Clinton, but he didn’t have the charisma
of the latter. The American people, though, loved McKinley
because they not only saw a smart, thoughtful leader, but also an
incredibly compassionate man; a man who not only lost two
children, but one who had to care for his invalid wife for
decades, and did so in a most inspirational way.
But then I see Clinton, still way too much of him, stride before
an audience, clapping his hands, smiling, soaking up the
admiration of the deeply misguided. A brilliant “politician,” in
the purest sense of the word, but one who should rot in hell.
Chapter Two…
And guess who else was a central figure in Rwanda? One
Richard Clarke, who refused to grant an interview to “Frontline.”
Clarke did nothing to try and help the beleaguered U.N. force on
the ground, arguing with Albright when she requested even
minimal support. Oh, today Mr. Clarke may offer one of his now
patented apologies, I imagine, but like with his 9/11 testimony he
wouldn’t take responsibility for one operational detail.
So think about this. Richard Clarke was one of those responsible
for the deaths of 800,000 people. This man is an unsung hero?!
[Check his book, as I did. Nothing on Rwanda, except a mention
that the embassy was closed on page 183.]
I’ve had a week to ponder last week’s comments on the former
counterterrorism chief and one can’t help but be struck by the
words of a Defense Department official in Newsweek who said
Clarke “was always this guy in a white sheet, going around with
a big sign saying the world was coming to an end.”
This hit home with yours truly and I need to get something off
my chest. There is no original thinking on security, post-9/11,
period. Anyone with half a brain knows that the U.S. will get hit
hard again, maybe tomorrow, maybe not for another few years,
and that a catastrophic attack with a WMD is almost inevitable at
some point. Just look at all that may have been prevented around
the world just this past week, with the arrests in Britain, the
Philippines, the roundup of Turkish terrorist suspects across
Europe, and the discovery of a bomb on a Spanish train line.
I bring this up, though, because unlike Clarke and the defining
quote above, I don’t want to become like some cartoon figure. I
wrote of threats long before 9/11, as you know, and I will
continue to highlight hot spots such as China / Taiwan that fall
under the radar. But the site is called “stocksandnews” and I
have to reinforce that what may come off as Chicken Little talk
is merely intended to remind you to take a little financial
checkup from time to time. When the markets get giddy, as they
often do, ask yourself, “If something awful happens, can I care
for my family? Do I suddenly have too great an exposure to
equities? Can I weather a 20% hit in a nanosecond?” That’s
where I’m coming from, friends.
But to close out this chapter, despite Clarke’s testimony to the
commission, polls show that a solid majority, generally 55%, still
believe President Bush is doing a decent job in the war on terror
and homeland security. Another majority does feel, however,
more could have been done beforehand, and over time all the
facts will eventually come out.
There is as yet no smoking gun, however, and I thought the
Washington Post piece on the 9/11 speech that wasn’t given by
Condoleezza Rice, a speech focusing on missile defense, was a
cheap shot and totally mishandled by many in the media. As a
long-time supporter of missile defense, I want to scream “Don’t
you get it?!” I could go back through my archives and point to
countless examples where I said we have to do everything…
everything…to protect America. Today’s bomb-laden backpack
in Grand Central Station can still be a North Korean, or Chinese
(this potentiality is always papered over) missile 10 years from
now, or sooner. And like with Ronald Reagan and Star Wars, if
the U.S. spends $10s of billions on a system that some day gets
one of the players to stand down, just as the Soviets did, then
good! But to bring it back to Wall Street and financial terms, I
have also said in the same sentence when discussing the costs of
doing everything that, yes, this would lead to massive deficits,
even larger than today, and struggling stock and bond markets.
Remember, no one ever said Americans were entitled to 10%
annual rates of return on their assets, but we do leave it up to our
leaders to protect us.
Chapter Three…
And so we circle back to Fallujah. I was disturbed that the
Marines did not go in after the contractors were killed, but
history is replete with bad generals, many of whom attained their
position by kissing ass all the way up the chain, not because they
were brilliant strategists or thinkers.
We now await June 30 and the handover of power to a still as yet
unnamed Iraqi leadership. Since last spring, the U.S. has been
paying the price for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and
Vice President Cheney’s ill-conceived, essentially non-existent
plan for post-war operations and the lack of boots on the ground,
as some of us identified a year ago.
Today we are also at the mercy of Ayatollah al-Sistani, who at
any moment could issue an edict, a fatwa, telling his followers
not to join the interim government. Coalition Provisional
Authority chief Paul Bremer also took a chance this week in
closing down radical Shiite cleric Sadr’s newspaper, one that was
inciting violence. I know why the move was made…we
just need to understand the potential consequences, such as
Sadr’s call on Friday to “strike them where you meet them.”
To wrap it all up, I leave you with the words of William Kristol,
who like myself has been troubled with some of the talk from the
families of 9/11 and Richard Clarke’s apology.
“What government officials (owe) the memory of those who died
on 9/11 – to ensure that they did not die in vain – (is) a greater
determination to prosecute the war on terror than had been
shown in the preceding eight months, and in the preceding eight
years.” [The Weekly Standard]
Let us pray.
—
Wall Street
Let’s go back to what I wrote on 1/3/04 in this space in looking
at the year ahead.
“No one forecast the kinds of equity returns we saw in 2003, not
just in the U.S. but across the world for that matter, and chief
credit for the performance goes to the comeback in the U.S.
economy as well as China’s ongoing boom, the latter helping
power the rest of Asia in particular. Both will continue to rock
on in the first half of 2004, but then I expect the brakes to be
applied, just as Europe and the rest of the world are catching
up…
“So why am I not as sanguine on the second half of the year as I
am on the first? It’s all about rising rates, even if slowly, and the
diminishing expectations on the real estate front as housing
markets cool, which then spills over into consumer spending, the
early signs of which we’re already seeing, I believe.
“And if the consumer slows, business spending, dutifully picking
up at the moment, will also slow. True, both will be growing, in
real terms, but at a pace far less than this ‘priced for perfection’
equity market now forecasts and the decelerating profits trend
that follows will lead to reduced expectations for earnings and
then sliding share prices.”
Of course you can pick this apart, but while a ton happened in
the first quarter, including a big rally and a solid correction,
followed by a new rally, all amidst falling interest rates (thru
March, that is), today I have little reason to change my scenario
…and so I won’t, gosh darn it.
With Friday’s jobs report for March, finally up a solid 308,000,
as well as upward revisions for January and February, there’s
every reason to believe decent trends will continue in the new
quarter. I still maintain, however, that by the second half rising
interest rates will begin to have an impact and when thoughts
increasingly turn to 2005, things will get dicey, regardless of
whether market-friendly President Bush is in office for a second
term. But we’ll talk about this in more detail in coming weeks.
As for today, who wants to talk energy? Geezuz, there is a lot of
misinformed chatter out there. Of course the mainstream media
has few financial experts writing headlines or doing reports, but
when OPEC formally announced it would stick with its 1 million
barrels per day production cut, you’d have thought the sky was
falling. Those of us in the know, however, like you all, knew
this was baked in long ago though we still had the alarmist
headlines, “OPEC cut production…oil prices will go up!” even
as they proceeded to decline.
OPEC is producing way ‘over’ their stated quotas, folks, and the
only reason why prices aren’t below $30 is because of terror
concerns, speculators / hedge funds, and strong demand from the
likes of China and the U.S. But the inventory picture has
become increasingly bearish for prices (there is no actual supply
shortage as yet).
So let’s draw some conclusions.
I’m on record as saying as recently as a week ago that oil (as
measured by West Texas crude, the most expensive blend) will
not fall below $30 anytime soon. Short-term (3-6 months), I just
may be wrong. Both OPEC and non-OPEC have the pedal to the
metal, pumping furiously like operators of those old fire engines.
I mean you’d do the same if you could get $35 a barrel and your
costs were anywhere from $3-$10 (roughly speaking).
But, while short-term supplies seem adequate, if the economy
continues to grow, particularly in China (not a certainty…sports
fans), those notes you’ve been reading the past few months on
reserve issues around the world do not bode well for consumers
of black gold. It’s why many of us are big-time believers in
energy for the long-term, but it’s also why I chose to take profits
in my biggest play this week (more later). The sector is still a
cyclical one, just like a pump…up and down, up and down.
Of course we also see a lot of whining on prices at the gas pump
these days. I truly feel for the taxi and truck driver, the traveling
salesman or the commuter who has to drive because the
alternatives don’t exist. And I feel for the airlines, because while
some deserve to fail, no one wants to see 10s of thousands out of
work. As for the rest of us…tough. We vote to put our do-
nothing, money-sucking politicians in office; we’re responsible if
they can’t come up with a national energy policy.
Finally, I had a firsthand experience this week that helped
convince me we may be at a short-term peak in prices (sticking
with oil and gasoline…natural gas is different). A fellow from
an outfit called Heartland Energy cold-called me, asking if I was
interested in an oil drilling project that would “return $160,000
on a $40,000 investment, complete with tax credits.” The last
time we had shams like this was in the early 1980s, right before a
collapse.
Street Bytes
–Just a solid week all around, with the Dow Jones rising 2.5% to
10470, the S&P 500 gaining 3% to 1141, and Nasdaq registering
its biggest weekly advance since October, 5% to close at 2057.
Nothing mysterious; the manufacturing data was strong, even if a
little below expectations in some cases, and then you had the
jobs report. Plus technology continues its rebound, helped by a
31% gain in global semiconductor sales over the past year.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.02% 2-yr. 1.85% 10-yr. 4.14% 30-yr. 4.97%
Interest rates soared on the job news and suddenly, despite all
odds, my prediction of a move by the Federal Reserve to raise
them at the May meeting is back in play. Granted, not in a big
way but it should be for reasons enumerated countless times
before, most dealing with the election cycle as much as the
prospects for rising inflation. The question is will the bond
market now react violently to individual pieces of data, outside
jobs and, say, the CPI and PPI, or will things settle down until
we put another big employment number together? Just
remember, speed kills in the bond pits, and as PIMCO’s Bill
Gross presciently said, at least for this week, when it comes to
bonds it’s ABT…Anything But Treasuries.
–I don’t have a lot to say on the Tyco mistrial, except it’s a
travesty and I hope the newspapers that named Juror #4 are
punished severely, editors suspended, for wasting our freakin’
money.
–AIG, Pfizer and Verizon were added to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, effective with the opening on April 8.
Coming out…AT&T, Eastman Kodak, and International Paper.
A good move reflective of the realities of today’s economy.
–Microsoft and Sun Microsystems settled Sun’s longstanding
antitrust and patent infringement suits, with Microsoft having to
fork over $1.6 billion while the two also entered an agreement to
share outdated technology. [Ahh, that last bit was not part of the
real story. Can’t figure out how it got in here.] Separately, Sun
is biting the bullet and eliminating 3,300 jobs, 9% of its
workforce. Sun shares rose about 20% on the combined news.
–India’s economy grew at a 10.4% clip for its most recent
quarter, exceeding even China’s pace. And remember, 2/3s of
India’s GDP is still derived from agriculture. This will obviously
change.
–Inflation tidbits:
New York City taxi drivers should soon receive a well deserved
raise, from an average fare of $6.85 to $8.45, or a 23% increase.
They have been underpaid for years.
New York City milk prices have risen from $2.85 to $3.15 per
gallon, 10.5%, and could go to $4. [Admittedly, this fluctuates
wildly.]
The Simpsons, or rather the voices behind them, are asking for a
collective raise from $2-$3 million a season (I’ve seen various
estimates) to $8 million. [Hey, it’s still inflation.]
New York apartment prices have doubled in the past 10 years.
The average price in Manhattan is $872,160, while at the same
time the size has shrunk 1/5th. [New York Post]
And then you have the example set by the Safeway / Giant Food
labor settlement in the D.C. area. Workers will see their
maximum out-of-pocket healthcare cost rise from $2,500 to
$4,000, and they have to pay more for prescription drugs.
–The New York Times had a terrific piece on life in New Jersey
these days. While some of you outside my home turf may find it
hard to understand, the fact is some with a low six-figure income
are not in a position to buy a house in much of the state. As
in other parts of the country the middle-class is being redefined,
and squeezed, at a rapid clip, and within this group you have the
winners and losers; those who have a secure job and those who
don’t.
–The SEC and Hong Kong regulators have begun to investigate
the China Life IPO over accounting irregularities prior to the
offering. Shares have fallen to $24 from a high of $35. I have
been warning of trouble in Chinese equity land all year (though
in the case of China Life I was willing to give them the benefit of
the doubt). If it’s proved that the company, and its underwriters,
withheld vital information, it’s the final nail. Again, why would
you possibly invest in one of these outfits where there is zero
transparency? The China growth story is obviously for real, but
find other ways to play it until you can have confidence in the
numbers, which requires one thing…the passage of time.
–The Financial Accounting Standards Board has now officially
proposed that stock options be expensed on corporate income
statements beginning next year. Granted, some are already
beginning to do this, but the new issue, aside from the impact on
earnings, is how do you calculate the figures? There are various
methods at play and unfortunately the confusion will continue.
–Terrific piece in the Wall Street Journal by Ellen Schultz and
Theo Francis on Lucent and the games many corporations are
playing with employee benefits; slashing them while booking
accounting gains.
–Don’t forget Brazil when you’re talking about the China story,
as this country just posted record exports of items like grain and
metals, largely because of the China market.
–Shareholders may like Gateway’s move to cut costs, but the
2,500 employees in the 188 retail stores that are closing this
coming Friday won’t.
–Starbucks opens up 3 ½ stores a day, worldwide. And to think
the first guy thought he had the whole territory to himself.
–My portfolio: I’m suddenly just 34% equities, 66% cash,
thanks to the aforementioned sale of my biggest energy play as
well as other assorted moves. So here’s the breakdown.
[Note to new readers: For obvious reasons I do not name specific
stocks, except sometimes when it’s a country fund.]
15% energy (3 issues), 5% Japan (EWJ), 2% pharmaceutical
(Jan. ’06 call position), 2% Internet telephony, 2% carbon fiber
(back in this one …never should have left), 2% Aussie resource
giant (backdoor China play…new), 2% Singapore (new, SGF…
nice discount to NAV), 2% India (I had 2 positions here, sold the
country fund, IFN, because I didn’t like the big premium to
NAV, and rolled it into the other holding, an Internet play, which
coincidentally rose right after on word of an alliance with
Yahoo), and, 2% Blue-Light / Full-Service Broker Special (new,
2 beaten up software stories I know zero about, but David P., my
advisor, has been good to me and we’re kind of rolling the dice).
As bullish as I am on energy, I’ve noted over the years I have
never been one to just buy and hold the group. For example, my
big winner went from $40 to $60 over about a year, but I owned
Jan. ’05 calls and turned it into a triple. One of my remaining
holdings, a driller, has been a winner three times for me over the
last five years. $36 to $63, $26 to $46, and currently, $26 to $45.
If I had held this the whole time instead, we’re talking $36 to
$45, just 25%. I calculated the other day that I’ve put on 17
trades in the energy sector since February 1999 and lost only
twice.
So you just read that paragraph and you’re thinking, “Damn, the
editor is cocky.” Yeah, you could say that. I tell you about my
losers, I’m going to tell you when I’m right. The point being, as
I noted up above all the talk on energy the past few weeks has
me nervous. I’ll probably sit tight for a spell and look for a
better re-entry point before committing more than what I still
have in the sector.
Foreign Affairs
Taiwan: The opposition Kuomintang and President Chen Shui-
bian have yet to reach an agreement on a recount of the recent
election, which isn’t helpful, though Chen has allowed an
investigation into the mysterious election-eve shooting. But
when it comes to the mainland, in some interviews granted this
week he took a very hard line. On the issue of recognizing their
“one China” policy, Chen said “If it is made a principle or
precondition, the two sides may forever be unable to really sit
down and talk,” adding, “Taiwan is an independent sovereign
country” [BBC] Chen also vowed to push ahead with a new
constitution by 2008, though not (as yet) with a formal statement
of independence. For its part China will not tolerate even a new
constitution, I imagine, and, at least with their rhetoric, Beijing is
saying the 2008 Olympics be damned; if Taiwan gets too
aggressive, China will invade.
Chen is being helped by China’s own hard line on reform in
Hong Kong, as he proclaimed, “For the 23 million people of
Taiwan, this is the biggest warning and also the most thorough
awakening.” Amen, brother.
Meanwhile, the U.S. riled China by following through on a long-
standing commitment to improve Taiwan’s defense by selling
two advanced early-warning radars, while Jane’s reports (for
those not familiar, the world’s experts on weaponry…whose
buying, whose selling, whose building) that Taiwan is going to
develop a ballistic missile capability with the ability to hit the
mainland.
China: The government is gearing up for the 15th anniversary of
the Tiananmen Square massacre, June 4, and has begun detaining
relatives of those gunned down to prevent them from stirring up
trouble. While in Hong Kong, pro-democracy supporters staged
a sizable rally that turned ugly, with many injured.
Israel: The saga of Prime Minister Sharon and his pending
indictment for taking bribes continues. He could be forced to
temporarily step down within weeks if, as expected, he opts to
fight the charges. In the meantime, Sharon is insisting that there
is no one to negotiate with on the Palestinian issue and he’s
intent on implementing his unilateral plan to exit Gaza and
redraw the security lines. If you haven’t been following this
situation and are wondering why Israel would be willing to give
up some of its settlements, just picture the resources spent in
terms of both manpower and money to protect 7,500 scattered
throughout the region. But you also continue to have incidents
like in an Arab neighborhood of East Jerusalem where ultra-
orthodox settlers moved in, for no other reason than to cause
trouble.
As for Sharon’s war against Hamas, some are asking: Has the
terrorists’ capacity been severely reduced? Are the majority of
Palestinians suffering from fatigue and thus willing to both crack
down on terrorism and negotiate in good faith? And, separately,
will Yassir Arafat finally be taken out, as Sharon threatened this
week? If you’re Israel you hope for the best…and prepare for
the worst.
Russia: In a strange, yet typically Russian move, former Yukos
kingpin Mikhail Khodorkovsky wrote an op-ed piece from prison
urging his fellow oil executives to accept higher taxes on their
earnings while supporting President Putin’s economic plan.
Khodorkovsky then took responsibility for some of the excesses
of the oligarch era. No doubt the apology had as much to do
with his current predicament and an earlier release from prison
than an actual act of contrition. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov wrote his own op-ed in the Wall Street Journal,
pleading for a new cooperation in foreign affairs to build a safer
world, saying that despite its differences, the U.S. and Russia are
the closest of allies. Folks, it was pure b.s., and there wasn’t one
mention of Russia’s WMD stockpile and what the nation is doing
to secure it.
North Korea: Remember these guys? You know, the ones with
the adult toys that have a nuclear warhead attached? This week
Pyongyang resumed its belligerent tone towards the U.S. and
reiterated it would not dismantle its weapons program, as the
White House wants, without the kind of major concessions the
Bush administration is not prepared to make.
Saudi Arabia: I first labeled Saudi ambassador Prince Bandar a
“dirball” back on 10/6/01 and have been highly critical since.
Coincidentally, the investigation into his ties and those of his
cohorts with Washington’s Riggs Bank is heating up. For its part
Riggs is in trouble for failing to file “suspicious activity” reports
for huge withdrawals by Bandar and other Saudis, up to $50
million worth, including $millions by the embassy’s chauffeur!
On Thursday, Bandar delivered a note to President Bush,
assuring him the kingdom would not let oil prices get out of
hand. Just remember, Bandar holds deep secrets about the U.S. /
Saudi relationship, including a treasure trove of damaging ones
involving Bush #41, it’s easy to conclude. Democrats are
wasting their time with things like George W. Bush’s service
record. If they really wanted to grab a few percentage points,
they’d focus here. [Not that I’m into giving advice to a party
I’ve never voted for, plus of course the Dems are just as dirty.]
France: President Chirac’s ruling coalition got slammed in
regional elections, capturing just 36% of the vote, while the
Socialists / Communists / Green party triumvirate garnered 49%
and the far-right National Front, 15%. Prime Minister Jean-
Pierre Raffarin has survived the debacle thus far but Chirac
shuffled the cabinet around, moving America’s favorite foreign
minister, Dominique de Villipin, over to the interior department,
which actually sets him up to be a strong candidate for the two
top slots down the road.
Spain: The new government made a symbolic gesture in
committing to add troops to its contingent in Afghanistan, while
maintaining it will still pull out of Iraq.
Serbia and Montenegro may split…not good.
Cyprus: April 24 is the deadline for a referendum on a
unification plan between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot
sections, as well as to see who gets accepted into the E.U. This
is important for sustained peaceful relations between the two
larger countries, let alone Turkey’s own E.U. application.
Haiti: It’s easy to forget we have almost 2,000 troops here. And
by the way, there is a huge difference between the mishandling
of Rwanda and this hellhole, though the main players were the
same in both. I have zero sympathy for the Haitians, who have
been given countless opportunities to show they belong in the
community of nations. But now we’re stuck here.
Zimbabwe: And mark my word on this one, Zimbabwe could
yet become the next Rwanda. The world community should
have taken out Robert Mugabe years ago. Another massive
failure on the part of humankind.
Random Musings
–A USA Today / CNN / Gallup survey has Bush leading the
suddenly invisible John Kerry 49-45, with Ralph Nader at 4%.
The president’s overall job approval is 53. Should it stay at this
level, that’s representative of the percentage he’ll end up with on
November 2, mused the editor.
–But oh how the likes of Karl Rove don’t make it easy. You
saw how I was bang on over the issue of the president’s initial
proposal of a one-hour only appearance before the 9/11
commission, and then the stonewalling over Condi Rice’s own
testimony. Just incredibly stupid politics and totally
unnecessary.
–Only 4 in 10 Americans have stockpiled food and water in the
event of a large-scale terrorist attack. That’s how slack we’ve
already become and I’m as guilty as the next guy, having eaten
all my Chex Mix while drinking the surplus beer.
–Here’s a security nightmare, the first Formula One / Middle
East Grand Prix in Bahrain on Sunday. Just a few conspicuous
symbols of excessive capitalism, don’t you think?
–17 were arrested in New Jersey on Wednesday for rolling back
odometers. But this was no ordinary rollback ring, sports fans.
Try as many as 10,000 used cars whose owners were hosed. And
if you live outside New Jersey don’t just sit there all smug,
because most of the cars were originally obtained at wholesale
auto auctions in Pennsylvania and Maryland.
–U.S. News & World Report had another unsettling report on
the prevalence of mercury in our waters and the dangers in eating
too much fish. The main culprits are the coal-fired power plants
and every American should be ticked that the Bush White House
has not come down hard on emissions from these pollution
factories. The utilities say it’s too costly. I’ve always
said…tough. Well, it turns out another 100 of the plants are in
the works, while we continue to be a nation of idiots when it
comes to the clean alternative, nuclear power. Regarding the
latter, I saw where a consortium just submitted an application to
build the first new one in over 20 years, though the earliest they
could start construction, if approved, would be around 2010.
–President Bush has urged that every American’s home be wired
for broadband by 2007. Proprietors of pornography web sites
sang “Hail to the Chief!”
–Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl’s widow sought to
become part of the 9/11 fund, but was rejected. I give her credit
for trying and doing all she can to care for her children, but
there’s obviously no way she qualifies. Mr. Pearl’s murder was
horrible, but he knew the risks in accepting the Pakistan beat, just
as I or any similar world traveler understands the risks in a lot of
countries these days.
–A survey for the Commonwealth Fund finds that 62% of
Americans would give up their tax cut to guarantee healthcare
for everyone.
–According to U.S. meteorologists, Brazil had its first ever
recorded hurricane the other day with winds of 80 mph, but
Brazilian authorities dispute this claim. [And hello to all my new
readers way down south. Don’t hesitate to drop me a line.]
–And now your reparations update. A gang of 8 has sued
Lloyd’s of London, FleetBoston and R.J. Reynolds, accusing the
3 of genocide in the slave era. Lloyd’s insured the ships,
FleetBoston was chartered by slave traders in 1791, and R.J.R.
had the tobacco fields. The plaintiffs are using DNA to connect
themselves to African tribes.
So I got to thinking, I have Czech / Slovak blood in me and
maybe I could sue the Budweiser Burgerbrau brewery in
Bohemia, founded in 1795, over my penchant for drinking beer.
–And speaking of my roots, and family, there is no doubt that
the last name ‘Trumbore’ is rather unusual. There aren’t a heck
of a lot of us, in other words, though I recently met a delightful
family over the Internet. But since the name kind of stands out
I’m sure some of you must wonder if I’m related to that rare
Trumbore that you hear or read about. Well, for those of you in
the Albany, New York area, or who may have perused Newsday
on Monday, my cousin Samuel Trumbore, a Unitarian minister,
has gotten himself some ink for breaking the law in marrying
same-sex couples. Oh well, my uncle is a regular reader of this
column (for which I’m most appreciative), but I just thought I
owed it to those who heard this story to tell you there is indeed a
connection.
–Finally, we toast the great broadcaster Alistair Cooke who died
a few days ago at 95. As the headlines this week were
dominated with barbaric news, it’s a reminder to cherish those,
like Cooke, who make this world a better place; including the
ones below that we salute each week.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $422
Oil, $34.39
Returns for the week 3/29-4/2
Dow Jones +2.5% [10470]
S&P 500 +3.1% [1141]
S&P MidCap +3.8%
Russell 2000 +5.3%
Nasdaq +5.0% [2057]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-4/2/04
Dow Jones +0.2%
S&P 500 +2.7%
S&P MidCap +6.2%
Russell 2000 +8.4%
Nasdaq +2.7%
Bulls 46.0
Bears 25.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. For probably the last time, we celebrate
Arnold Palmer at Augusta. I feel a 68 in his bag……no, really!
Brian Trumbore
