[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Friends, it was quite a week for many of us; going back to the
scene at Normandy last weekend, let alone the death of Ronald
Reagan. I have to admit I’m emotionally drained, but thankfully
I had the foresight to do most of what follows before Friday’s
funeral service. I do, however, need to say something up front.
Two courageous women stood out the past few days; Nancy
Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. May God be good to them in
their final years.
—
Iraq
In just a few days we saw a microcosm of the problems facing
the coalition as it tries to guide Iraq to its first free elections in
January. President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair
successfully negotiated a 15-0 unanimous vote in the U.N.
Security Council as the body adopted a resolution turning over
sovereignty to the Iraqi people. Concessions were made, though,
one being that the coalition can’t initiate major military
operations, such as we saw in Fallujah, without the interim
government’s approval.
But in the biggest development, Shi’a Ayatollah al-Sistani used
his power to get a key provision thrown out; the mentioning of
the interim constitution and the sanctioning of minority rights for
the Kurds. I agree with the likes of commentators William Safire
and Ralph Peters; this was a betrayal of our chief allies and while
at this moment the Kurds have responded they’d hang tight for a
while, one cannot but feel their utter disappointment and concern
for the future. As Peters concluded, the position of the U.S. is
“immoral, vicious and stupid.”
President Bush also failed to win NATO support for more troops
and French President Jacques Chirac led the charge on the issue
of debt forgiveness. Regarding the latter, Iraq owes $120 billion
but France is worried that to forgive much of it sets a bad
precedent.
As for troops, Chirac is not alone in the feeling that NATO
already has its hands full in Afghanistan, but what’s particularly
depressing here is the fact that the mission there is still basically
limited to the defense of Kabul. [The U.S. is charged with
tracking down terrorists throughout the country.] NATO has
committed to expanding the security ring to the hinterlands and it
can come none too soon, witness the slaughter of 11 Chinese
contract workers by the Taliban this week.
As we all reflected on Reagan this week, I thought “What would
Ronnie have done?” with regards to Iraq. I believe he would
have certainly gone in in similar fashion. How he would have
handled the post-war phase, though, I feel is somewhat mute
if you think about something I first raised well over two years
ago.
America should have been cutting backroom deals with the
French and the Russians long before. We should have given
them some of what they wanted – the oil concessions – in
exchange for troop support in both Iraq and later Iran, though
perhaps the other would have gone down without a shot being
fired. You probably thought this was far-fetched when I first
broached the topic. Now, after this past week, how do you think
Reagan the pragmatist would have handled it?
Wall Street
As we inch closer to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee meeting June 29-30, Chairman Alan Greenspan
spoke anew of “measured” action by the body when it comes to
raising interest rates. But this week Greenspan added that if
conditions warrant – i.e., big numbers on producer and consumer
prices – the Fed was prepared to be more aggressive. Greenspan
is particularly concerned about the impact of high oil prices on
the rest of the price chain. In addition, wages are rising (good
and bad) and clearly there is renewed pricing power in some
sectors of the economy. Fed Regional President William Poole
added on Thursday that with all this in mind “It would be
appropriate for the FOMC to move further and faster.” In other
words, we could be in for a bumpy ride, as much as the bond
market would like to think it has already largely priced in the
coming attractions.
Meanwhile, on the energy front, it turns out OPEC pumped 26.3
million barrels per day in May, exceeding the current quota of
25.5 million and above the initial estimate of 25.8 million. But
while oil hit $37 during the week, it rebounded to finish basically
unchanged at $38.65. And if you’re looking for another hint on
what could be a future supply / demand issue, you had the
announcement out of Asia (ASEAN) that many of these
countries may soon create their own strategic reserves a la what
the U.S. and others in Europe already have to better prepare for
any shortages.
But this coming week the focus remains on the release of the
consumer price index and, possibly, the now delayed data on
producer prices. Everyone is in agreement the economy is strong
and corporate earnings are solid. The real issue nonetheless
remains the specter of inflation.
Street Bytes
–The major indexes all rose, a week shortened by the Reagan
national day of mourning. The Dow Jones gained 1.6% to
10410, while Nasdaq tacked on 1.1% to 1999. Including the
S&P 500, all three are at their highest levels in almost two
months and for the year the Nasdaq and Dow are now off less
than one percent.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
It’s been basically one year since we hit the historic lows in the
Treasury market, 6/13/03, so it’s a good time to compare the
move in rates since then.
6/13/03: 6-mo. 0.84% 2-yr. 1.01% 10-yr. 3.10% 30-yr. 4.13%
6/11/04: 6-mo. 1.64% 2-yr. 2.80% 10-yr. 4.80% 30-yr. 5.47%
Of course it hasn’t been straight up over this period. It’s already
easy to forget that just this past March 17, the 10-year was back
down to 3.65%. [The intraday high for the cycle was then set
one month ago, May 14, at 4.90%]
–Federal regulators have ruled the Baby Bells don’t have to
lease their phone lines to local networks at deep discounts, an act
that some hope will speed up the implementation of broadband.
–As economist Paul Samuelson wrote, it’s easy to forget that
back in the 1970s inflation was a top concern of Americans,
along with the Cold War, for instance. But Samuelson adds that
Ronald Reagan doesn’t get enough credit for his role in
combating inflation, ostensibly by letting then Fed Chairman
Paul Volcker be Volcker. Politically, Reagan got hit hard as the
country spun into a deep recession but he stuck by his principles
yet again.
–Speaking of this era, back in 1986 I was working on real estate
limited partnerships that offered substantial tax write-offs for
high net worth individuals. Then the Tax Reform Act of ’86
came along and abolished the loopholes that allowed for the
deductions in virtually all the shelters in existence at that time. It
was bad for business, but good for America as all of us who were
working the deals readily recognized at the time. Unfortunately,
over the years Congress went right back to the old game and
reintroduced some of the write-offs Reagan killed.
–General Motors is doubling its capacity in China with thoughts
of introducing 20 new models by 2007.
–87-year-old Kirk Kerkorian and his MGM Mirage made a bid
for Mandalay Resort Group. The combined entity would control
more than 50% of the rooms on the Las Vegas strip, though he’d
be forced to sell a few for antitrust reasons. Then again,
Kerkorian could ‘comp’ the Feds, send up a few showgirls and
presto! It’s just that simple.
–Hotel room rates nationwide are up 3% this year and forecast to
rise another 3% in 2005, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
–Credit Suisse was implicated in a money laundering scheme
involving Japan’s biggest ‘Yakuza’ crime syndicate, i.e., some
folks are going to be sleeping with the fishes, if you catch my
drift.
–The trial of two former executives for Russian energy giant
Yukos begins June 16. Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his associate
aren’t going to like the outcome, I imagine.
–Teamsters in the U.S. are upset that the Supreme Court gave
the go ahead to allowing Mexican trucks carrying goods across
the U.S. border to exceed the current 20-mile zone. The court
was just reinstating a provision of NAFTA. The teamsters view
this as taking away more of their jobs.
–Former Putnam CEO Larry Lasser settled a dispute over his
compensation following his departure and one of the true
dirtballs of the financial services industry will receive $78
million in cash. Over one 7-year period, 1996 to 2002, Lasser
averaged about $17 million a year in pay.
–Ken Langone, head of the New York Stock Exchange’s
compensation committee from 1999 to 2003 and a party to Eliot
Spitzer’s lawsuit against Dick Grasso, wrote in a Wall Street
Journal op-ed “I have never cut ethical corners, and I won’t
tolerate those who do.” This will prove to be an outright lie,
as a current NASD investigation looking into his investment
firm, Invemed, will establish. To be continued.
–A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research
revealed there is no correlation between household income and
how frequently one has sex or how many sexual partners one
has. An earlier study at the University of Chicago found that
declining income levels were associated with sexual dysfunction
in both men and women. I’m so confused!
–I have some good friends who are dairy farmers in the
Oklahoma panhandle and no wonder they just cancelled a trip to
come see me here in New Jersey. Last year dairy farmers
received 95 cents a gallon at the processor and today it’s more
like $1.69. Moooolaahhhh.
–My portfolio: I made a small addition to the spec portion but
am still basically 80% cash these days.
Foreign Affairs
Saudi Arabia: Is the kingdom on the verge of collapse, or is it
finally beginning to address its problems head on?
Unfortunately, as we’ve discussed in the past, al Qaeda has
infiltrated all levels of government, including the military and
security apparatus, so if you believe this to be true then you can
draw the conclusion it’s already too late. A full-blown civil war
would then be inevitable, far worse than the relatively low-grade
one currently taking place.
But this week we’ll focus on the fact there are an increasing
number of voices beginning to speak out, though as Neil
MacFarquhar points out in the New York Times, the religious
establishment refuses to believe there is a problem with
Wahhabism itself. MacFarquhar quotes the son of King Fahd.
“The perpetrators of (the recent) heinous crimes are influenced
by ideologies alien to our country and to the nature of our people,
who throughout the ages advocated tolerance and coherence.”
Well, out of nowhere Prince Bandar bin Sultan, ambassador to
the United States and a man I have harshly criticized in the past,
wrote a powerful piece for the Saudi government’s daily
newspaper Al-Watan in which he seeks a Saudi “jihad” against
terrorists.
“His Excellency Crown Prince (Abdullah) has declared war on
terror and on the terrorists, and he is right in doing so. Likewise,
many righteous senior officials in his government have reiterated
His Excellency the Crown Prince’s declaration. With all due
modesty, and out of my trepidation for my beloved land, I
express my opinion on this sensitive subject from thousands of
kilometers away, from America…
“(What is called for is a) general mobilization for war in thought
and in deed, as individuals and as a whole, in the media and in
the culture – a mobilization of all state institutions and the
private sector towards this goal, and viewing everything in life
based (on the premise that) we are at war…
“Victory in this war will come first and ultimately through trust
in Allah. After that, it will be a result of conducting this war
against those who are deviating (from the religion) — …traitors
to their faith, their families, and their land…
“War means war. It does not mean Boy Scout camp. It is a war
that does not mean delicacy, but brutality. This is (a) war that
cannot be conducted based on calling those who deviate (from
the religion) good people who are careless, but based on (calling
them) terrorists and aggressors with whom there can be no
compromise…
“Enough blaming others when the reason lies within our own
ranks! Enough demagoguery at this critical stage in our history!
We must all, as a state and as a people, recognize the truth about
these criminals. These criminals have disseminated corruption in
the land, and it is incumbent upon us – the rulers, the clerics, and
the citizens – to keep the word of Allah: ‘The punishment of
those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and strive
to spread corruption in the land is only this, that they should be
murdered.’ Period!
“We must not discuss or hesitate in this matter. We must all
obey the honored directive of Allah, and kill those who spread
corruption in the land.”
[Source: Middle East Media Research Institute / Washington
Post]
Pretty powerful stuff coming from Prince Bandar, though I
question his sincerity. For another angle, following is a passage
from a Post op-ed by Mona Eltahawy, a human rights activist and
editor, on today’s Saudi Arabia.
“Two weeks before the Khobar rampage, a young Saudi friend
forwarded me a copy of a fatwa, or religious ruling, issued by
Saudi Arabia’s senior clerics. It was a fatwa banning the giving
of flowers when visiting the sick in the hospital. ‘It is not the
habit of Muslims to offer flowers to the sick in hospital. This is a
custom imported from the land of the infidels by those whose
faith is weak. Therefore it is not permitted to deal with flowers
in this way, neither to sell, to buy nor to offer them as gifts,’ the
fatwa said.”
In a separate development involving the kingdom, a serious
investigation is underway into charges from two distinct sources
that Libya’s Col. Muammar Qaddafi plotted to assassinate Saudi
Crown Prince Abdullah; these two leaders absolutely despising
each other. What’s even more disturbing is that Qaddafi may
have set this in motion after his reassurances to the West that he
had mended his ways.
China / Hong Kong / Taiwan: Last week over 50,000 marched in
Hong Kong to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the
Tainanmen Square massacre. The crowd was far more than
anticipated and it gives hope that the coming protest July 1,
while not matching last year’s stupendous pro-democracy
demonstration, may nonetheless send another stirring message to
the communists in Beijing who seek to thwart freedom in this
vital region. There is no doubt that with China’s recent actions,
the principle of one country / two systems is in grave danger.
As for Taiwan, its Vice Defense Minister said on Wednesday,
“The Chinese communists are likely to conduct small-scale or
partial attacks in 2006 or 2008,” due to the fact they will have
achieved air and naval superiority over Taiwan by then.
In the June 7 edition of Defense News, China strategist John
Tkacik wrote that the Bush administration is following a very
dangerous policy of “strategic ambivalence” when it comes to
China and Taiwan, leaving both “Beijing and Taipei dangerously
confused about American goals in East Asia.”
The Pentagon’s May 28 report on China describes a rapidly
modernizing and threatening war machine that has “learned the
lessons” of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
“ ‘The focus of China’s short- and medium-term conventional
modernization efforts,’ the report warns, ‘has been to prepare for
military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, to include scenarios
involving U.S. military intervention.’ Moreover, the report is
unnervingly candid about Taiwan’s vulnerabilities.” [Tkacik]
But while Vice President Cheney, in a recent visit to Beijing,
warned China that the U.S. is obligated to supply Taiwan with
defensive weapons, he reiterated the U.S. supports the principle
of one China. Washington is far more concerned with China’s
cooperation on North Korea than with what the mainland would
do to Taiwan. Tkacik concludes the administration must “guard
against letting the balance slip in favor of the hard-liners in
Beijing and away from the democratic leaders in Taipei.” In
essence rewarding bad behavior.
South / North Korea: The U.S. has now upped the figure of
soldiers departing South Korea to 12,000 by 12/05, including
3,600 that are being redeployed to Iraq, as the Pentagon seeks a
leaner, more mobile force. I still maintain that as much as Seoul
is willing to shoulder an increasing share of the load for its own
defense, any withdrawal today is courting danger until the U.S.
gets a handle on Kim Jong il’s nuclear weapons program. We’re
sending the wrong signal to Pyongyang.
As for the six-party talks and China’s role, it is urging the U.S. to
compromise with a foreign ministry official adding “The U.S.
has not produced convincing evidence of a (uranium program).”
Iran: Speaking of nuclear programs, Iran’s foreign ministry
office claimed it had “answered all ambiguities on its nuclear
activities and there is nothing left on the table.” The
International Atomic Energy Agency meets on June 14 to issue
its latest findings.
Israel: Prime Minister Sharon’s cabinet approved a greatly
watered down withdrawal plan for Gaza and the West Bank. For
starters it didn’t set a firm timetable for implementation, though
the goal is for end of 2005. Regardless, further votes are
required beforehand and Sharon’s ruling coalition is shaky as he
lost a majority in parliament, however, Shimon Peres’s Labour
Party has stated it would fill the void.
Venezuela: As of this writing President Chavez has agreed to a
recall vote on August 15, which guarantees chaos because it
leaves only four days for an accurate count before a
constitutionally mandated deadline of August 19. Aside from the
fact those seeking to boot him face a high benchmark of 3.8
million votes, the Supreme Court has yet to rule on whether
Chavez could run in a new race if he loses the referendum.
Turkey: In the government’s continuing bid for E.U.
membership, four Kurdish activists were released from prison as
a gesture to the European Commission, which had requested the
move. To outsiders this may not seem like much but it is given
the history between the Turks and Kurds.
Random Musings
–From a London Times editorial on D-Day.
“If D-Day had failed, the course of history would have changed.
Hitler, having repulsed the allies in France, would have been
given a chance of victory. Martin Gilbert, the historian, argues
that Germany would have developed new and more deadly flying
bombs, diverted its forces to fighting the Soviet Union and
eliminated the remaining Jews in Europe. Had the ‘Longest
Day’ ended in disaster for the allies, the setback would have been
crushing.
“In another, barely less awful, ‘what if?’ version of history,
Soviet military might could have prevailed against Germany and,
while British, American and Canadian forces were kicking their
heels in Britain, ensured the spread of communism across the
whole of Europe beyond the Channel. D-Day had to succeed and
we can be eternally grateful that it did…
“We should remember (the) lessons amid the wave of anti-
Americanism directed at George W. Bush. The Iraqi invasion
was no D-Day but there were parallels. A totalitarian leader was
deposed, thanks to American, British and other allied forces.
The rule of law has taken time to establish but the signs are
positive. We and the rest of Europe should remember that we are
always stronger when standing alongside America. Tony Blair
understands that. It was the lesson in 1944 and it is true in the
war against terrorism today.”
–50% of the French don’t feel they owe a debt to the U.S. for
saving the country in World War II, according to one local poll.
–The G-8 participants vowed this week to do more to clean up
nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles, most of which
remain in the former Soviet Union, but we’ve heard this before.
As Sam Nunn and Michele Flournoy write in a Washington Post
op-ed, less than ¼ of Russia’s nuclear bomb-making material has
been adequately secured, plus there remain millions of artillery
shells filled with nerve agents available to the highest bidder.
–Ted Koppel, in a commencement speech at Berkeley:
“More than likely, the use of a chemical or biological weapon in
a terrorist attack against the U.S. homeland would lead to the
imposition of martial law…There is a direct correlation between
the perception of threats to America’s security and the
contraction of our rights and freedoms. We need to critically
examine the nature and scope of those threats; and where they
exist, we must be prepared to calibrate our rights and freedoms.
If we fail to do that now, at a time of relative sanity…then we
will have condemned ourselves to having those choices made in
a climate of national hysteria.”
[Source: New York Times]
–Six coalition soldiers were killed in Iraq – 3 Slovaks, 2 Poles,
and 1 Latvian – in an attack while they were removing munitions
and mines.
–Over 20 terrorist suspects were arrested in a series of raids in
Belgium, Italy and Spain. One shudders to think what would
have happened post-9/11 if the world community hadn’t had so
many successes on this front. At the least, we would have been
dealing with a global depression.
–One reason why President Bush was fortunate the airwaves
were filled with discussion of Ronald Reagan’s legacy was the
fact the latest revelations on the prisoner abuse scandal were
none too pretty, with the leak of various documents purporting to
show that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld was in essence
sanctioning torture when it came to interrogating terror suspects.
If the media hadn’t dug up the story (first uncovered by the Wall
Street Journal), the administration and Pentagon would have
covered it up.
I wrote just last week that if the Congress and the White House
had hashed out the difference in treatment for an al Qaeda type
versus the majority of those being held in Iraq, the worst abuses
that the U.S. is now accused of may never have occurred. Too
late now.
–Various surveys show John Kerry still ahead of President Bush
by 7 percentage points, with the margin narrowing slightly if
Ralph Nader is added to the mix. But in key battleground states
such as Ohio and Missouri the race is a statistical dead heat.
Meanwhile, a Los Angeles Times poll revealed that 58% believe
the nation is on the wrong track.
–This movement to put Ronald Reagan on the $10 bill is an ill-
advised one. Those wishing to honor him should start by
teaching their children some history, as I spell out below and as
the president himself would have desired. And not for nothing,
but Alexander Hamilton was a giant.
–New York City has unveiled a new anti-noise plan whereby ice
cream trucks wouldn’t be allowed to play music, while dogs
could bark only 5 minutes during the day, 10 at night. [It really
should be the other way around with the yelping canines. But
what do I know?]
–Actually, with the latest data from that German study on canine
intelligence, perhaps the dogs are really saying, “Yoh, your car is
being ripped off! Want me to help capture the guy?”
–With the 10th anniversary of the killings of Nicole Brown
Simpson and Ronald Goldman, U.S. News interviewed some
folks in Los Angeles as to their thoughts today on the O.J. trial.
One African-American, Desiree Gill, offered up the following:
“We all know he did it, but we’re glad he got off. Finally a little
justice for the underdog.”
You, Ms. Gill, are an idiot. The plaque recognizing same is in
the mail.
–You had to respect jockey Edgar Prado after his upset on
Bridestone at the Belmont Stakes. All of us were crushed that
Smarty Jones was defeated, thus completing one of the more
depressing Saturdays in American history, but Prado was terrific
as he humbly said “I’m very sorry…but I had to do my job.
That’s what I’m paid for.”
–Nice week for Jimmy Carter, eh?
–You can see that John Danforth will make for a terrific U.N.
ambassador.
–In any conversation on the fall of communism, it is presumed
that one knows that Pope John Paul II and Margaret Thatcher
played critical roles of their own alongside Ronald Reagan.
–Shepard Smith on Fox News finishes each broadcast with the
inane “Stay brave. Stay aware. Stay with Fox.” Then the other
day his substitute said “Stay positive. Stay poised. Stay with
Fox.” Stay poised?! Just shoot me.
–The European Union holds elections this weekend for its 732-
member parliament. Like many folks, I have little understanding
of just what it is the body does except to add another layer of
bureaucracy and regulation. Other than that, if they ever hold a
beer-tasting forum I’d love to be invited.
–I pray for the soul of Father Neil Poulin, a friend of mine from
the island of Yap in Micronesia who recently passed away. He
was probably the funniest man I have ever met in my life and
was adored by the natives there. And we note the passing of the
legendary Ray Charles. One of his hit titles, “Crying Time,” was
rather apropos for this week.
–Tom Hanks is a truly great American. God bless him.
Ronald Reagan
Thoughts on his passing:
Former chancellor Helmut Kohl… “He was a stroke of luck for
the world, especially Europe.”
Mikhail Gorbachev… “I deem Ronald Reagan a great president,
with whom the Soviet leadership was able to launch a very
difficult but important dialogue.”
Yelena Bonner, the widow of Soviet dissident and Nobel Prize
winner Andrei Sakharov… “I consider Ronald Reagan one of the
greatest U.S. presidents since World War II because of his
staunch resistance to Communism and his efforts to defend
human rights.”
Robert Dole… “Ronald Reagan taught me that success is never
final nor defeat fatal, as long as you have the courage to act on
principle and take the heat.”
Margaret Thatcher… “Ronald Reagan had a higher claim than
any other leader to have won the Cold War for liberty and he did
it without a shot being fired. To have achieved so much against
so many odds and with such humor and humanity made Ronald
Reagan a truly great American hero…He staked out his ground,
he fought and he won.”
Commentator George Will… “One measure of a leader’s
greatness is this: By the time he dies the dangers that summoned
him to greatness have been so thoroughly defeated, in no small
measure by what he did, it is difficult to recall the magnitude of
those dangers or of his achievements. So if you seek Ronald
Reagan’s monument, look around and consider what you do not
see.
“The Iron Curtain that scarred a continent is gone, as is the Evil
Empire responsible for it. The feeling of foreboding – the sense
of shrunken possibilities – that afflicted Americans 20 years ago
has been banished by a new birth of the American belief in
perpetually expanding horizons…
“(Reagan) understood that when Americans have a happy stance
toward life, confidence flows and good things happen. They
raise families, crops, living standards and cultural values; they
settle the land, make deserts bloom, destroy tyrannies…
“Today, Americans gratefully recall that at a turbulent moment
in their national epic, Reagan became the great reassurer, the
steadying captain of our clipper ship. He calmed the passengers
– and the sea.”
As I’ve noted before, I was a senior at Wake Forest University in
the spring of 1980 when John Anderson announced his 3rd party
candidacy for the presidency. The congressman made one of his
first campaign stops at Wake and having followed his earlier bid
for the Republican nomination, I believed in a lot of what he
stood for. Alas, I helped organize the event and being a loyal
sort I voted for him in November out of a sense of principle.
Of course during that summer it was quickly apparent my
candidate wasn’t going to fare well and at the same time I looked
forward to the presidency of Ronald Reagan. And so it was that
on Election Day, I celebrated with the majority of Americans at
our good fortune and never looked back since.
Last Saturday night after learning of the president’s death, I
watched a video; a non-politicized selection of Reagan’s
speeches. [MPI Home Video, “Ronald Reagan: The Great
Communicator,” 4 volumes and a must have.] With all the talk
of the Reagan presidency this week, it was still easy to forget just
how many eventful things happened in those first few years,
like the downing in September 1983 of KAL 007 by the Soviets,
another chilling example of an Evil Empire. And then there was
December 1981. I believe it was on the 13th of that month that
martial law was imposed in Poland. The free world didn’t know
what would transpire next and we had no idea what had
happened to the likes of Lech Walesa, having been led away to
await their fates.
Ronald Reagan took to the airwaves December 23, and after
watching his speech to the world community in support of
freedom and democracy in Poland, I vividly recalled going to
church the next day, Christmas Eve, and praying. These were
scary times. But Ronald Reagan, who could have decided that
Poland was already in the Soviet sphere and there was little we
could do, continued to lash out. Today, it’s not only why we can
have Lech Walesa give his thanks in a poignant op-ed in Friday’s
Wall Street Journal, it’s why a 35-year-old customs officer in
Romania, upon hearing of Reagan’s death, remarked “It is due to
him that we are free.”
This past week I thought long and hard about why I can be so
pessimistic and not more like Reagan. No doubt, much of it has
to do with faith, which I struggle with from time to time, but it’s
also because I see certain problems, such as in Americans lack of
understanding of history, both our own and that of the rest of the
world. Some of you heard about the Gallup poll concerning D-
Day and how 53% of those age 18-29 can’t identify who the U.S.
was fighting on the beaches of Normandy. Even Ronald Reagan
would have been depressed by this.
I always wondered how I would act when the president died. But
because his death was a relief in many respects, I didn’t exhibit
any real emotion until Sunday when an unidentified woman
visiting the Reagan Library was shown on television.
“We need him now more than ever to watch over our country,”
she said.
I’ve always believed that Ronald Reagan’s best address to the
nation was his farewell speech, January 1989. I leave you with
his thoughts on teaching our children the lessons of the past.
Pray we heed his words of advice.
“Finally, there is a great tradition of warnings in presidential
farewells, and I’ve got one that’s been on my mind for some
time. But oddly enough it starts with one of the things I’m
proudest of in the past eight years: the resurgence of national
pride that I called the new patriotism. This national feeling is
good, but it won’t count for much, and it won’t last unless it’s
grounded in thoughtfulness and knowledge.
“An informed patriotism is what we want. And are we doing a
good enough job teaching our children what America is and what
she represents in the long history of our world? Those of us who
are over 35 or so years of age grew up in a different America.
We were taught, very directly, what it means to be an American.
And we absorbed, almost in the air, a love of country and an
appreciation of its institutions. If you didn’t get these things
from your family, you got them from the neighborhood, from the
father down the street who fought in Korea or the family who
lost someone at Anzio. Or you could get a sense of patriotism
from school. And if all else failed, you could get a sense of
patriotism from the popular culture. The movies celebrated
democratic values and implicitly reinforced the idea that
America was special. TV was like that, too, through the mid-
sixties.
“But now, we’re about to enter the nineties, and some things
have changed. Younger parents aren’t sure that an unambivalent
appreciation of America is the right thing to teach modern
children. And as for those who create the popular culture, well-
grounded patriotism is no longer the style. Our spirit is back, but
we haven’t re-institutionalized it. We’ve got to do a better job of
getting across that America is freedom – freedom of speech,
freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise. And freedom is
special and rare. It’s fragile; it needs protection.
“So, we’ve got to teach history based not on what’s in fashion
but what’s important: why the Pilgrims came here, who Jimmy
Doolittle was, and what those 30 seconds over Tokyo meant.
You know, four years ago, on the 40th anniversary of D-Day, I
read a letter from a young woman writing of her late father,
who’d fought on Omaha Beach. Her name was Lisa Zanatta
Henn, and she said, ‘we will always remember, we will never
forget what the boys of Normandy did.’ Well, let’s help her keep
her word. If we forget what we did, we won’t know who we are.
I’m warning of an eradication of that – of the American memory
that could result, ultimately, in an erosion of the American spirit.
Let’s start with some basics: more attention to American history
and a greater emphasis on civic ritual. And let me offer lesson
number one about America: all great change in America begins
at the dinner table. So, tomorrow night in the kitchen I hope the
talking begins. And children, if your parents haven’t been
teaching you what it means to be an American, let ‘em know and
nail ‘em on it. That would be a very American thing to do.”
At least we had one helluva civics lesson this week, Mr.
President. It’s a start.
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America and the great Ronald Reagan.
—
Gold closed at $386
Oil, $38.65
Returns for the week 6/7-6/11
Dow Jones +1.6% [10410]
S&P 500 +1.2% [1136]
S&P MidCap +0.5%
Russell 2000 +0.2%
Nasdaq +1.1% [1999]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-6/11/04
Dow Jones -0.4%
S&P 500 +2.2%
S&P MidCap +3.4%
Russell 2000 +2.2%
Nasdaq -0.2%
Bulls 49.5
Bears 20.2
Note: I have the story of President Reagan and the PATCO
strike up on my “Wall Street History” link.
I should also note we had a bit of a technical glitch this past
Wednesday. These things happen from time to time and I
apologize.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
****************************************************
“I know in my heart that man is good
That what is right will always eventually triumph
And there is purpose and worth to each and every life.”
–Ronald Reagan
