**Next review will not be posted until 7:00 AM ET, Monday**
[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
The War on Terror
I can’t be the only one whose mood swings from optimism to
pessimism when it comes to the war we are waging against evil.
We, including the intelligence services around the world, have
stopped countless follow-ups to 9/11, but some have still gotten
through (Bali, Madrid) and there are times the task appears
overwhelming. It also doesn’t help that our leaders make
mistakes; some out of sheer incompetence, others from pure
misjudgment.
This week, for example, National Security Advisor Condoleezza
Rice admitted the obvious; the battle to win over the hearts and
minds of the Islamic faithful is not going well. Earlier, former
chief weapons inspector David Kay blasted her National Security
Council for failing to provide the president with accurate pre-war
intelligence. Kay is not without fault, himself, but let’s just say
the administration was fortunate that the Olympics helped to
bury his thoughts.
I bring this up because you have to picture I get a variety of mail
over the course of the week and, to make a broad generalization,
the mood these days is increasingly surly. Representative of
this, an AP-Ipsos poll revealed that on the question of whether
the war in Iraq was a mistake, overall it’s still pretty much as
you’d expect – Democrats 80-19, yes; Republicans, 86-14, no.
But what got me is that 60% of those over 60 years of age said it
was. Condi Rice is worried we’re losing the hearts and minds of
the Islamic world, when she should also be concerned, as should
her boss, that they’ve lost a substantial part of their base, many
of whom have memories of “causes greater than oneself.”
Believe me, I hear you and it distresses me as a continuing
supporter of the war in Iraq. But even a highly respected
Republican Congressman like Doug Bereuter of Nebraska has
serious misgivings. Bereuter, retiring after 26 years in the House
and a man who served in the military, recently wrote his
constituents that the war was a “mistake,” “unjustified” and that
our position around the world, our reputation, has been harmed.
Some Republican leaders were stunned, given the source.
I bet I can recite President Bush’s upcoming convention address
virtually verbatim, and to his hard-core supporters it will be
satisfying. But the truth is when he talks to us “of staying the
course,” I’ll be thinking, “With all due respect, Mr. President,
staying the course is not working.”
Don’t get me wrong. The Kerry people will be musing the same
thing but we approach the issue from totally different viewpoints.
Case in point, Moqtada al-Sadr.
The Bush administration let this mentally challenged nut case
dictate the rules of the game. Following are the thoughts of
retired Lt. Col. Ralph Peters regarding the latest episode in Najaf,
after our earlier failure in Fallujah.
“Sadr became a greater problem still, attracting many who
previously had doubts about him. A Shi’a religious outlaw who
started out with minimal support could claim he’d defied
America.
“And he was right. Despite the accomplishments of our troops,
the transformation of the Pentagon’s neo-cons into neo-Clintons
threw the fight to Sadr, just as they folded in Fallujah when faced
with Sunni terrorists. The Bush administration tossed away
essential victories, one after another. We’ve become the
enemy’s best recruiters….
“The new American way of war is to quit on the edge of victory.
“This really isn’t hard to figure out: When we fail to win fast, we
lose. (Our political leaders) don’t want ‘excessive’ casualties or
collateral damage. So we dither. And, over months and years,
the casualties and damage soar beyond what a swift victory
would have cost….
“Make no mistake: It’s our folly and moral cowardice that
encouraged our enemies to make widespread use of mosques.
We created this monster, as surely as our timidity inflated Sadr…
Our troops deserve better. We need to let them win.” [New York
Post]
As for Iran, its defense minister threatened the U.S. with
preemptive action against our troops in Iraq if Washington was
to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Of more credible
concern is Iran’s threat against Israel’s nuclear facility at Dimona
should the Israelis do the West’s bidding. The other issue of
today remains Iran’s ongoing interference in all of Iraq,
particularly in places like Najaf.
And then we have President Musharraf of Pakistan. You can
blame him for not capturing bin Laden, and you can say he
continues to play a duplicitous game with all sides, but he’s also
a courageous sonuvagun, particularly since he understands how
his mostly open support of the United States is only fueling anti-
American sentiment across his land. As the Wall Street Journal
reported this week, new terror groups are springing up here,
though this time they are comprised of the middle class and the
elite, not necessarily the poor receiving their schooling in the
madrassas.
Finally, as I told you over a month ago, the media is beginning to
seize on the 1,000 American war dead figure in Iraq…now
around 950. It will also be a big theme of the protests in New
York.
To the parents of those serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, I wish I
could hug each and every one of you who have lost a son or
daughter, and hug those who have returned with severe wounds.
I am but one citizen of our nation, one who is in constant awe of
those who serve to protect my freedom. I believe this cause is
just, though I empathize with good-meaning people who choose
to disagree. It’s also why we should pray for our leaders,
regardless of our political affiliation, in whose hands these next
few decades we entrust the lives of the best of America.
—
Wall Street
So here’s the latest on oil, as we flirted with the $50 level before
pulling back late Friday to close at $47.60 (expiring Sept.
contract). No doubt, $40+ crude is doing a number on the world
economy. It’s not just the U.S. airline industry that is getting
hammered, think of those in the developing world, like in Asia.
Imagine huge spikes in energy costs while making 1/10th what
we do here. Yes, if we hang out at these levels much longer
we’ll have a global recession. Forget this talk from economists
of the impact being only 0.5% of GDP, max, it threatens to be far
more. It’s the snowball effect of not spending that extra dollar
here and not going out to dinner there, and then the impact on
employment of all sorts.
But, I do not think oil will stay at these levels. Yes, there are real
supply / demand issues in a still growing world economy, but
there is a lot of froth, too. Inventories, for example, by some
measurements are 5% ‘above’ a year ago level. There is no
shortage of crude, in other words. However, the big problem lies
down the road if we don’t start finding more because it will be
decades before alternative sources are developed to an extent
where they can pick up enough of the share of the load to have a
real impact.
[Before then, the Bush administration should have long held a
gun to Detroit’s head and said, “Dammit. You have three years
to make a drastically more fuel-efficient, affordable car. Now do
it.]
Of course in the meantime traders say there is a $7 or thereabouts
terror premium in the price of oil and until we gain more stability
in Iraq, for starters, it’s going to be tough reducing this.
I have to admit I certainly didn’t see the oil shock coming, not to
this extent. I do foresee a global recession in 2005 that was to
have nothing to do with crude. Instead, I see a pricking of the
global real estate and China bubbles; the first dramatically
curtailing the wealth effect in the more developed nations, the
latter hurting the export economies of the developing ones.
Throw in oodles of consumer debt and it’s not anymore difficult
than that. Should this scenario then come to pass, enter talk of
deflation. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Street Bytes
–There was other news this week. Google came public at $85 a
share and promptly finished the week at $108. After the
interminable delay for this offering, those who picked up shares
should be happy campers, let alone the executives of this
company that now has a greater market cap than General Motors.
The question is, what will they do with the bucks – $1.7 billion
raised in the IPO…the largest tech deal of its kind – aside from
hiring a bunch of people? No one seems to know, or care. As
for yours truly, I wouldn’t touch this issue for a simple reason. If
you believe eBay, Yahoo and Amazon are overvalued, as I do,
then you certainly wouldn’t buy Google. But I wish the
company well.
Overall, the markets finally staged a broad-based rally, with the
Dow Jones registering its best percentage gain, 2.9%, since May
2003 (believe it or not), closing at 10110. The S&P 500 finished
up 3.2% and Nasdaq had its best week since April, up 4.6% to
1838.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.73% 2-yr. 2.43% 10-yr. 4.23% 30-yr. 5.02%
Interest rates were unchanged, though aside from the soaring oil
price, housing starts were strong thanks to still historically low
mortgage rates. On the flip side, the leading economic indicators
for July were down.
–Major retailers Home Depot and Staples both had positive
things to say about the second half of the year.
–Foreigners continue to invest in the U.S. because regardless of
what you may believe on the economic front, it’s still the best
game in town. In June, for example, foreign investors purchased
65% of all newly issued corporate bonds. [Wall Street Journal]
I have tried very hard not to be a doom and gloomer on the U.S.
dollar and the trade deficit. Some have been playing this game
for years, much as I have with real estate. It’s just at some point
it will all turn and as an investor you hope you have some
warning to readjust the portfolio accordingly.
–The co-founders of Google are now worth over $3 billion each
on paper. Remember, kids, cash is not trash! Actually, by one
estimate there are 600-700 employees who now have shares
valued in excess of $2 million based on a share price of $85.
Others did far better, including Yahoo and AOL; both owning
$550 million+. Yahoo had featured Google as its search
provider for 3 years, while AOL still does.
–China, desperate for every last drop of oil, has been turning up
the heat on the Russian government in the Yukos matter, offering
to pay all transportation costs to ensure delivery of Yukos’ crude.
And there are some reports China is attempting to actually buy
the assets. Perhaps if they threw in some counterfeit videos and
software they’d have a deal. Separately, the Russian parliament
recently approved a bill, only now coming to light, that severely
restricts the rights of minority shareholders; another roadblock
for those foreigners looking to invest here. In other words, let’s
say you own a company priced at $10 in today’s market. Under
this provision, you could be forced to sell your stake, arbitrarily,
at whatever an appraiser values it at, say $8 or below market
value.
–The SEC is banning the practice of “directed brokerage”
wherein a mutual fund company will be prohibited from
directing trading business to those brokerage firms selling the
funds. However, revenue-sharing [for ex: paying 10 basis points
on sales] will be permitted if disclosed properly. Oh, how I
know both practices. By the time I left my position in 1999,
every brokerage operation I visited was clamoring for PIMCO to
direct trades. We didn’t, and I never faced a conflict here.
Revenue-sharing, however, was a different deal, though this was
disclosed in the prospectus.
But the SEC is still examining a proposal to ban 12b-1 fees and
on this issue I totally back the fund industry. No doubt the 12b-1
fee is not exactly being used as first proposed decades ago – for
marketing and distributing funds – but the broker / financial
planner servicing your account deserves a small fee for this
ongoing work. Investors, though, must understand what the fee
is for. If they don’t think it’s fair, well, it’s a free marketplace.
–The Plaza Hotel in New York was sold to an investor group,
but what I found interesting was the record price paid per room
…$840,000 for each of 808. But when you think of the room
rate you can get at the Plaza in good times, it really doesn’t seem
that outrageous. The new owners are also looking to convert
some rooms into luxury condos.
–Ah yes, the saga of Canadian telecom giant Nortel continues.
Early in the week, the Canadian Mounted Police, sans mounts,
launched a criminal investigation into the ongoing accounting
scandal that both Canadian and U.S. regulators have been
examining for some time now. Then on Thursday, Nortel finally
released “estimates” for the 1st half of 2004 while announcing
another 3,500 would be laid off. In addition, 7 more senior
executives were fired, bringing this total to 10. Nortel is now
seeking repayment of $10 million in bonuses paid to all of them.
So Harry K. passed along some metrics now popular north of the
border that best describe Nortel’s travails. EPLUR – Estimated,
Preliminary, Limited, Unaudited Results. EMUUR – Essentially
Made Up Unaudited Results. EFFLUENT – Extemely Far-
Fetched Limited Unaudited Earnings a la Nortel. MERDE –
Made-up, Estimated, Revisable Daily, Earnings. STUPID –
Short Term Unaudited Preliminary Interpolated Data. And
CRAP – Conjured up Results And Profits. [There were others,
but I’d lose my International Web Site Association license.]
–Liz S. suggested that if Lucent’s front lawn is still water-
logged, the company could harvest rice and feed a few
employees.
–The SEC has issued a warning involving a scam phone
message you may have encountered, with innocents believing
they have accidentally received a real one, thus stumbling on
something hot.
“Hey Tracy, it’s Debbie. I couldn’t find your old number and
Tammy says this is the new one. I hope it’s the right one.
Anyway, remember that hot stock exchange guy that I’m dating?
[ed. Dick Grasso?] He gave my father that stock tip on the
company that went from under a buck to like three bucks in two
weeks and you were mad I didn’t call you? Well I’m calling you
now! This new company is supposed to be like the next really
hot clothing thing. And they’re making some big news
announcement this week. The stock symbol is ABCD. He says
buy now. It’s at like 50 cents and it’s going up to like 5 or 6
bucks this week so get as much as you can….”
That is the actual script off the SEC web site. Don’t be duped.
–Inflation Update: Mark R. noted that the CEO of food-service
giant Sysco said food prices had increased 8%, year over year.
So much for the formal data the government comes out with, in
other words.
But more importantly, Judy R., Mark’s wife, was enquiring about
my Shark dustbuster / jet engine. I forgot to note last week that I
had had some extensive plumbing work done on my place,
speaking of inflation, and the guys left a mess. But was I
concerned about the clean-up? Are you kidding? I had my
Shark and in no time the place was spotless. Get yours today at
all Bed, Bath & Beyond outlets.
–Speaking of retail, the other day Jimbo and I were discussing
Donald Trump’s new clothing line and Jimbo averred that I
needed to go to Men’s Warehouse, just to check out the color
selection…black, black and Black.
–You know that natural gas explosion in Texas, Duke Energy’s
baby? If Red Adair were still alive that would have been out
after just one hour.
–My portfolio: No changes…still hold the same mishmash of
stocks and remain 75% cash, mostly $10s and $20s and now
buried near George Washington’s old headquarters in
Morristown, N.J.
Foreign Affairs
Venezuela: Who knows what the truth really is here after
Sunday’s referendum on President Hugo Chavez’s rule? Outside
observers, including former president Jimmy Carter, proclaim
that the government’s announced vote of 58% to keep Chavez in
power was basically on the mark. The opposition, though,
claims massive fraud and vote rigging with the electronic
tabulating machines. A legitimate exit poll, for example, showed
the exact reverse of the announced result. For now, the nation is
relatively quiet but the situation could change any day if the
opposition chooses to contest the vote in the streets on a massive
scale.
The “populist” Chavez, of course, is big with the poor of
Venezuela, of which there are far more these days thanks to his
corrupt rule.
How can this be? What is happening to the oil revenue? Well,
look what happens to most nations dependent on crude for their
existence. There was Saudi Prince Bandar this week, in another
Washington Post op-ed, crying that because of his nation’s
reliance on oil revenues, the last thing Saudi Arabia wants is to
tank the global economy and thus the Saudis will do all they can
to keep that from happening.
To which I observe, yes, like Venezuela the Saudis have done
zero with their wealth in terms of improving the lives of their
people and diversifying their economies. Both nations are
rapidly deteriorating in the midst of record plenty. They cry
when oil is below $20, and they cry when it’s $50…all the while
lining their pockets and those of their equally corrupt associates.
South Korea: The chairman of this nation’s ruling party resigned
in disgrace after admitting his father worked for Japan’s military
during the 1910-45 occupation. The gentleman had previously
claimed his father was a teacher. Surprisingly, the colonial
period has never been investigated in any real way as far as the
issue of collaboration.
As for North Korea, it is balking at another round of lower-level
talks on its nuclear weapons program. Again, why not wait until
after the U.S. election? If I had to play Kim Jong-il’s hand
(celebrity poker with Carmen Electra would be preferable), that’s
what I’d do. Plus the Orcs of Mordor get to build another few
bombs in the interim. But these days, of equal importance to
South Korea is the increased tension between the two over the
hundreds who have defected in recent months. North Korea has
said it would retaliate.
China / Taiwan / Hong Kong: There has been little worth
reporting on, frankly, this summer but that’s all about to change.
Hong Kong holds its critical municipal elections on September
12, another key test for the democracy movement, while
Taiwan’s military recently conducted a computer simulation for
the benefit of Taiwan’s leadership. The conclusion here was the
island would be taken by mainland forces in just 5 ½ days,
starting with an airborne assault of Taipei that would attempt to
round-up the leadership in the opening hours. [Bloomberg
News] If it’s truly a surprise attack, under this scenario the
White House probably wouldn’t respond. We’ve discussed this
in depth many times before, but it bears repeating. The world,
beyond a few harsh words the first weeks after, would not do a
thing. It would quickly be business as usual. Don’t want to lose
access to that 1.3 billion market, after all.
Israel: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon still can’t muster a coalition
that supports his Gaza withdrawal plan, with the most vociferous
critics being from his own Likud Party. Sharon vows to press
on, as is Israel with new settlements in the West Bank (though
they’re being sold as “extensions” of existing ones). Meanwhile,
over in the Palestinian territories, the people increasingly
complain of the rampant corruption in the Palestinian Authority,
but then they do nothing about it. Of course this has been going
on for decades as Yassir Arafat squirrels away international aid
in Europe’s banks. I try hard to be fair-minded when it comes to
the plight of the Palestinians, but how can you truly respect those
who are incapable of helping themselves? There are some
potential leaders, such as Muhammed Dahlen, who understand
that the people are going nowhere fast, but even he can’t
dislodge Arafat. To quote Dickens, “Are there no workhouses?
Are there no prisons?”
Georgia: You know this little breakaway republic, South
Ossetia? Did you know it only has about 70,000 people? Well,
these folks sure are causing a ruckus as there were numerous
clashes between Ossetia and Georgia’s military, with a number
killed on both sides. No doubt, the ongoing debacle in Sudan’s
Darfur region is more important on a mass humanitarian scale,
but this whole Black Sea region, vital to the world’s oil supply,
could explode, particularly if Russia (Ossetia’s supporter)
chooses to allow it to do so.
Turkey: As a Catholic, I’m allowed to say the following. Boy,
the Vatican has said some dumb things the last few years. This
time, one of the Pope’s advisors offered that the Vatican’s
official policy is to block Turkey’s E.U. candidacy. Turkey, says
the Vatican, is “in permanent contrast to Europe” and the Vatican
avers (as do many others in Europe these days) that it’s important
to keep the continent Christian.
Britain: This nation’s imams have told their followers to be wary
of a backlash following a terrorist attack in Britain, and the more
responsible ones are encouraging their people to make authorities
aware of any terrorist activity. This week 8 here were formally
charged in various plots, including for attacks in the U.S.
Random Musings
–Concerning the political situation in New Jersey these days,
Newsweek observed “New Jersey’s history of corruption has
been touched by no other state, with the possible exception of
Illinois and Louisiana.” Well, long before the McGreevey fiasco
I observed how embarrassing my state is when it comes to our
politics (see Robert Torricelli, to cite one obvious recent
example). Of course the national Republican Party down in
Washington deserves a large share of the blame because so often
a worthy candidate (see Bob Franks and his race against Jon
Corzine) doesn’t get the support he or she deserves.
But when it comes to Governor McGreevey, I must reiterate that
this is not about his sexual preference, but rather it’s a simple
case of abuse of power, at many levels. One of the governor’s
supporters said this week, “as an individual no one has ever
questioned Jim McGreevey’s character.” Again, we’re being
played as chumps.
My friend Johnny Mac had a good point concerning the issue of
McGreevey opting to stay on until November 15, thus precluding
a special election to choose a successor. He resigned “because
(according to him) he can’t govern effectively, but he’ll stay on
for three months because (according to him) he can govern
effectively.”
For his part, Senator Corzine was eager to step in and run in an
election. The plan then was for Corzine to select our state’s
other top Democrat, Congressman Robert Menendez, to fill
Corzine’s senate seat. But the two acquiesced when McGreevey
said he wasn’t budging. Yup, gotta do the people’s business,
including, as the Star-Ledger reported…now get this… “ethics
reform.”
I won’t even get into the issue of Golan Cipel this week, except
to say that in another example of my dictum “wait 24 hours,” the
other man (3rd) to step forward, some quack doctor, turns out to
be lying about his relationship with Cipel, though the New York
tabloids gave him his 15 minutes of fame anyway.
What matters far more, for now, is that billionaire developer and
top McGreevey fundraiser, Charles Kushner, pled guilty to tax
evasion and blackmail. [Kushner’s the one who attempted to
blackmail a potential witness in a tax probe by hiring a prostitute
to put the man in a compromising position, on video.] Kushner
will serve up to two years. But, part of his deal is that he doesn’t
have to discuss his relationship with the governor! Disgraceful.
To be continued…
–According to Newsweek, there are 11 tossup states for the
November election with 124 electoral votes at stake.
Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New
Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
–Interesting data out of California as a leading poll has John
Kerry up 54-38 (Nader 2%), with only 6% still undecided. But
the same survey gives Governor Schwarzenegger a stupendous
69% approval rating.
–Liz S. wrote that she was in Naples, Florida, one week before
Hurricane Charley, and her mother said “I just don’t really know
anyone who isn’t a Republican; however I don’t know anyone
who is going to vote for Bush.” The mother went on to comment
that there is, apparently, a big Republican constituency who are
“ticked off” at Bush for a myriad of reasons, yet they are being
very quiet about it. Collier County, Florida. Not to be
underestimated, as Liz writes. I would add that confusion in the
aftermath of Charley is going to be a huge issue, I imagine.
Where to go to vote, voter ID, etc. Not helpful to the Bushies.
–Liz, an old friend from the mutual fund business, also
commented on the healthcare crisis in America, opining that
soon we will be adopting the Eskimo tradition of putting an old
person on an iceberg and saying “goodbye.” Personally, I really
don’t want to be chum for an elephant seal. And I hate the cold.
–Wesley Clark had a good point on “Hardball” the other night.
Where is our new ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte? It’s as
if the Bush administration is hiding him until after the election. I
certainly understand the U.S. wants to be seen as having fully
turned over authority to the interim government of Prime
Minister Allawi, but that’s not the reality of the situation.
–I’m not getting into the Swift Boat controversy. Wasn’t there,
wouldn’t be prudent. Kerry’s remarks when he returned from
Vietnam are fair game, however, but his senate record should be
weighed far more heavily.
–New York City is increasingly concerned about violent protests
surrounding the Republican convention, which as I noted a while
back is why I wouldn’t step foot in the Big Apple that week. I’m
a lot more worried about home grown anarchists in this instance
than a bunch of terrorists.
–Soon to be released reports on the Abu Ghraib prison abuse
scandal, produced by the Pentagon, will implicate up to two
dozen soldiers and military-intel officers, but no senior
commanders. In other words, supporters of the Bush
administration have to concede it was more than a “handful” and
you can’t tell me a senior figure or two didn’t know.
–On the other hand, I fully support the Pentagon’s troop
redeployment plans. Of course the Germans are worried about
the economic impact to those towns where bases will be
abandoned, while some in South Korea would like the U.S.
tripwire to remain in place, though in this case the Pentagon
announced plans to redeploy away from the border and Seoul
long ago.
Critics of the moves simply don’t understand the realities of
today. Of particular concern to yours truly, for example, is
maintaining a strong presence in Asia proper and I have seen
only one article discuss a key fact; the U.S. will be further
building up an already substantial force on the island of Guam, a
mere 2-3 hour flight from potential flashpoints on Taiwan, Japan
and in South Korea, let alone the Philippines, Indonesia, or
Singapore.
–Your heart goes out to the retirees who were victims of
Hurricane Charley, along with the small business owners and all
those now unemployed. But I pray the dirtballs taking advantage
of the elderly, in particular, end up in hell.
–Speaking of heat, or lack thereof, New York City has not had a
90-degree day since June 9. Pittsburgh also hasn’t had a 90-
degree day in that timeframe. It’s why natural gas has remained
at a tame level, as opposed to crude oil. But watch out this
winter…start saving today for your heating bills.
–The World Water Council issued a report concluding that the
world can’t support meat and dairy products because these
require too much water in an age when we can’t find enough of
it. For example, a kilo of lamb from a sheep fed on grass needs
10 cubic metres of water. A kilo of cereal needs just 0.4 to 3
metres. Ergo, not only is this good for Cheerios, but it should
promote Chex Mix.
–Johnny Mac observed that Greece really has come up with a
perfect antidote to the terrorism fears of the Olympic Games. No
crowds! Who’d want to waste his or Allah’s time? [Just make it
through one more week, folks.]
One thing is for sure, China won’t allow empty stands in Beijing
for the 2008 Games. Heck, they could bus a bunch of North
Koreans, who appear to love such pageantry. And they’re great
with flash cards!
–Long ago, in the days before 9/11, I had fun with the mangy,
yet noble yak. For you new readers, it all started when I read of
a terrible blizzard / sandstorm in the deserts of Mongolia (WIR
1/13/01) and my concern for the yaks. After this, wherever I
went in the world I’d seek out the zoo to try and find this proud,
and nutritious, animal. So our own Dr. Bortrum stumbled on this
item from Scientific American, June 1854…yes, 1854.
“Geoffrey Saint-Hilaire, and other eminent naturalists in France,
are beginning to consider the domestication of animals which
have hitherto been known to Europe only as objects of scientific
curiosity. They have recently received for the Jardin des Plantes
a number of Yaks from China – an animal which Comte de
Buffon (1707-1788) says ‘is more precious than all the gold of
the New World.’ In Thibet (sic) and China this animal draws
large loads, supplies milk, has flesh which is excellent, and hair
which can be wrought into warm clothes. To naturalize him,
therefore, in Europe, would be an immense service to mankind.
By the way, the late Lord Derby made the attempt and failed.”
Ah, but they’re doing it in Colorado these days, among other
places. Thank you, Dr. B., for enlightening us further.
–The Population Reference Bureau issued its latest report and I
feel like this is good info for all of us to know.
1. China…1,300 (millions)
2. India…1,087
3. United States…294
4. Indonesia…219
5. Brazil…179
6. Pakistan…159
7. Russia…144 (and falling)
8. Bangladesh…141 (minus 13 recently killed by Indian
elephants)
9. Nigeria…137
10. Japan…128 (needs to start making babies in a big way)
–Pursuant to my recent thoughts on cellphone usage, economist
Robert Samuelson had the following comments in Newsweek.
“Private conversations have gone public. We’ve all been
subjected to someone else’s sales meeting, dinner reservation,
family feud and dating problem. In 2003 cellphone
conversations totaled 830 billion minutes…almost 50 hours for
every man, woman and child in America. How valuable is all
this chitchat? The average conversation lasts two-and-a-half to
three minutes. Surely many could be postponed or forgotten…
“I agree increasingly with the late poet Ogden Nash, who wrote:
‘Progress might have been all right once, but it’s gone on too
long.’”
–Actually, this week was kind of like revenge of the academics.
William C. Dowling, an English professor at Rutgers University,
wrote a terrific piece for the Star-Ledger. Dowling opines on
how he has given up the Internet, with all its spam and spyware,
and gone back to books and old-time forms of communication.
“One has to wonder if the final penetration of cyberspace by
predatory advertising isn’t going to kill the golden goose of
online commerce. In early modern Europe, counterfeiters were
put to death not because the act of creating fake gold or silver
coins was regarded as so heinous but because governments
realized that the currency system would collapse if faith in
currency was destroyed. In Web commerce, as soon as people
realize that their bank accounts are being looted and their credit
cards stolen by programs secretly planted on their hard drives,
it’s easy enough to predict a mass exodus from the Internet.
“The problem isn’t easy to solve. There is no federal legislation
that protects the privacy of your home computer and no federal
office devoted exclusively to tracking down and prosecuting the
criminal types who have transformed the lives of millions of
Internet users into a nightmare. And, because many of the
perpetrators operate from foreign countries, they would not be
subject to U.S. law even if such legislation or such an office did
exist.
“We didn’t move to stop predatory advertising years ago when it
began to degrade American life in a thousand less intrusive ways.
Now we’re paying the price.”
–Well, there you have it. Just a few more months and we all go
running for the exits. One’s gotta do what he’s gotta do.
And on that note, I’m heading over to Ireland for my annual golf
trip. This is the only place where I don’t lug the laptop and my
interest in the outside world is minimal. But, I will come up with
a brief piece for this space…only it will NOT be posted until
Monday, August 30…by 7:00 AM ET.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $415
Oil, $46.72 [More active October contract price. Using this
figure is consistent with all past postings of mine.]
Returns for the week of 8/16-8/20
Dow Jones +2.9% [10110]
S&P 500 +3.2% [1098]
S&P MidCap +4.3%
Russell 2000 +5.9%
Nasdaq +4.6% [1838]
Returns for the period of 1/1/04-8/20/04
Dow Jones -3.3%
S&P 500 -1.2%
S&P MidCap -0.5%
Russell 2000 -1.6%
Nasdaq -8.3%
Bulls 43.6
Bears 28.7 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence…
beginning to grope for a bottom, if you believe in this contrarian
indicator.]
Have a great week.
*I will also not be answering e-mails from Tues. – Sunday.
Brian Trumbore
