[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Election 2004…and the War on Terror
“It is a fight between right and wrong, good and evil. And
should our enemies acquire for their arsenal the chemical,
biological and nuclear weapons they seek, this war will become a
much bigger thing.”
–Senator John McCain
The following is more political than normal and supporters of
President Bush won’t be happy, even though I am casting my
vote for the man in November. If you’ve been a regular reader
through the years, you know I have been bang on concerning the
post-war period in Iraq and my concerns outside this theater
remain un-addressed by this administration.
But first, I need to dispense with a few other issues. John Kerry
is a miserable candidate and I haven’t heard one person, not one,
state a strong case for why Kerry should be our leader; thus this
election remains Bush vs. the Bush haters.
Second, I’ve stated on more than one occasion that I urged
Senator McCain to run against the president, either directly or as
a third party candidate. I wrote him to this effect about a year
ago and he replied he had to be loyal to the party.
Why McCain? Simple. He remains the best man to lead us in
this war and in my mind there is nothing else that matters for
another simple reason. One catastrophic attack on U.S. soil
and it’s anarchy.
But it was with some amusement that I watched the proceedings
this week at the Republican convention. I thought McCain,
Giuliani and Schwarzenegger were terrific, with the first two
framing the paramount issue of our times far better than
President Bush ever has.
And while the president gave a solid speech himself on
Thursday, that is if you had been on an island the past 15 months
and didn’t know what the heck was really going on, it’s the brave
men and women of our armed forces who have performed
brilliantly, while their leaders have failed both them and our
country.
Think back to “Mission Accomplished” and what I was writing
just a few weeks after as the situation began to deteriorate in
Iraq…May, June, July, August 2003. President Bush was losing
the nation as this little insurgency sprang up and gained
momentum, casualties mounting. For four months, four months,
our president was AWOL. Folks, it’s documented in my
archives, in rather vivid prose, that between May 1, 2003 and
Labor Day, George W. Bush didn’t address the American people
once and, just as importantly, failed to recognize that we needed
more boots on the ground to crush the insurrection before it
could take hold.
‘Yes,’ the president would reply if confronted today, ‘but I told
the generals they could have anything they wanted and they said
the force level was sufficient.’
Oh yeah, the generals. You won’t find many that have blasted
them as much as I have (and I was doing so before Lt. Col. Ralph
Peters). For the most part, they’re political hacks, afraid to speak
out (with rare exceptions like General Shinseki) for fear, and a
legitimate one, of losing a future promotion. In fact, when one
talks of those at the top, I haven’t liked a U.S. general since
Norman Schwarzkopf. Even Tommy Franks, our new darling
and best-selling author, should have recognized we were blowing
our opportunity by not being prepared for the post-war operation.
History will give him high marks for the brilliance in the attack
plan, but Franks will fail for his performance thereafter.
You see, friends, if a neocon is one who believed that by taking
down Saddam Hussein you created an environment where
freedom and democracy had a chance to take hold and spread to
the likes of Syria and Iran, then I plead guilty. I’m a neocon.
The problem is those of my ilk have been abandoned! How else
can you explain Wolfowitz, Cheney and Co. all going AWOL
themselves at the same time in not recognizing that we could
blow the one shot we may have for generations to come to
transform a region that will otherwise threaten us for the next
century? President Bush is right in one regard; democracies
don’t allow weapons of mass destruction to be passed on to
terrorists.
On Thursday the president spoke of our successes in Afghanistan
and Iraq, in toppling two bloody regimes, and we should all take
pride in this accomplishment, but the follow through has been
dreadful.
Why didn’t we kill the son of Satan, Moqtada al-Sadr, to cite one
obvious example? Fallujah was back in April. He still lives and
all this political party bull aside, he will fight again unless he’s
removed.
And then you have the twin crises of North Korea and Iran,
which the president totally ignored the other night. I understand
the acceptance speech wasn’t the time to lay out detailed plans
for dealing with these evil regimes, but Bush didn’t acknowledge
the threats at all because frankly he doesn’t have a legitimate
game plan in either situation.
But the biggest, single issue we face today is best exemplified by
the rash of tragic terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Chechens
and their al Qaeda allies. Here is your nightmare scenario.
Chechens and al Qaeda will one day get hold of some of the
loose nuclear, chemical and biological material floating around
the former Soviet Union. I have been pleading that the U.S. and
its allies must do more to get a handle on this, regardless of the
cost. It’s the paramount global emergency of our time. But any
window of opportunity is rapidly closing as Russian President
Vladimir Putin increasingly retreats into his Stalin-like shell.
The platform for dealing with this particular issue was long
established in the form of the Nunn-Lugar program.
Unfortunately, I’m more convinced than ever it may already be
too late.
Trust me, folks. A nuclear weapon going off in Moscow, let
alone Paris, London, Tokyo or Sydney, will have the same basic
impact on our financial well-being as if it went off in New York
or Los Angeles. Have a nice day.
Wall Street
It’s easy to make too much of one piece of economic data, let
alone a week’s worth, and I try not to in formulating my opinions
here, but when one looks at the slew of figures and reports we
had this week I can’t help but conclude that my 1/3/04 forecast
for this year remains firmly in tact; a decelerating economy with
disappointments on the earnings front, and thus sliding share
prices, thanks to frothy expectations.
Certainly Friday’s employment report of a jobs gain of 144,000
and slight upward revisions for June and July was nothing
special, though the official unemployment rate ticking down to
5.4% should help President Bush a bit, and you had a slew of
other numbers, most less than anticipated in both manufacturing
and personal income. Additionally, auto sales were abysmal in
August and the damage went beyond Detroit’s Big Three to
include Japanese automakers.
Yes, the economy is still growing at a decent clip, overall,
thanks to a still credit-happy consumer, and various surveys of
business sentiment reveal optimism when it comes to future
hiring and spending on capital equipment.
But here’s the bottom line. Just look at Intel and Wal-Mart, the
two biggest players in their vitally important sectors. Intel
slashed its third quarter sales and profit margin forecasts (on top
of rising inventories) and Wal-Mart said August sales were
basically flat because back-to-school demand has been weak. I
don’t see how you can conclude anything else except to say the
“soft patch” in the economy remains.
Well, given all this, what will the Federal Reserve do when it
meets September 21? I’m not willing to concede yet that it will
keep raising the federal funds rate at a “measured,” read ¼-point,
pace as it seeks a “neutral” interest rate setting. I believe they
should hold off until after the election, but as I’ve written
countless times before short-term rates are too low at 1.5% and
it’s the Fed’s fault for going so low in the first place. I maintain
that if the economy is growing closer to 2.5% than 4%, and the
trend is down, there is little justification for further Fed
tightening.
And furthermore, there is increasing evidence the global
economy is hitting its own soft patch; this week’s examples
being a flat industrial production number out of Japan and a
Reuters survey concluding that manufacturing has peaked in
Europe.
On the housing front, add Moscow to the bubble story.
Apartment prices here soared 40% in 2003 and another 20% in
the 1st six months of ’04, but now they’ve been flat in July and
August. [Moscow Times] And in the U.S., the Wall Street
Journal reports that inventories are beginning to rise in some
parts of the country, another sign we’re closer to the end than the
beginning.
As for crude oil, it spiked back up to $45 on Wednesday on news
its own inventories had plunged, yet they are still 2.4% higher
than a year ago and oil finished back at the $44 level, though still
up on the week. The Yukos saga in Russia continues to be a drag
as the courts (and Putin) toy with the energy giant and its assets.
Lastly, in this political season, I was watching former
ambassador and banking giant Felix Rohatyn on CNBC the other
day and while he is a Kerry supporter I nonetheless have to pass
on his concise explanations of some of the economic and
political dangers we face.
1) Don’t put it past China to use its massive holdings in U.S.
Treasuries as a weapon to blackmail Washington over Taiwan.
Essentially, “leave us alone or we’ll create a dollar crisis,” at
which point interest rates would soar and potentially collapse the
economy.
2) The Bush administration collapsed the dollar itself over the
past two years in an effort to help American exporters, yet we
continue to have record trade deficits…and rising oil exports
aren’t solely to blame.
Street Bytes
–Stocks finished mixed, in another largely lackluster week, with
the Dow Jones closing up 0.6% to 10260 and Nasdaq finishing
down 1% to 1844 thanks in large part to the poor news from
Intel that infected the whole group.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.87% 2-yr. 2.59% 10-yr. 4.29% 30-yr. 5.06%
A volatile week as the 10-year initially plunged below 4.10% on
the heels of the weaker than expected economic data, but rates
rose Thursday and Friday on the renewed sense that the Fed will
nonetheless tighten again in a little over two weeks.
–Oil Stocks: I first commented in April, and reiterated in this
space on May 15 and afterwards, that the big gains had been
made in the energy sector even as the price of crude was rising.
In the first weeks of April I drastically pared back my own
exposure to these shares from 35 to a current 6 percent and I’ve
been meaning to quantify what I meant, using two key
barometers; the XOI (an index consisting of the major
integrateds such as ExxonMobil) and the OSX (an index
representing the oil service / drilling sector).
4/30/04
XOI…604
OSX…104
7/16/04
XOI…660 [peak…then fell back significantly]
OSX…113 [peak…ditto]
9/3/04
XOI…651
OSX…114 [attempting to break out]
So while the two have rallied roughly 8 to 10 percent since April
30, it also proves that as of today the big money has indeed been
made… thus far. I retain my two oil issues as a hedge in case
I’m drastically wrong and while I’m watching the OSX carefully,
in particular, it’s difficult for me to jump back in in any big way
when I remain negative on the global economic outlook for 2005.
–The World Trade Organization ruled that the European Union
and other trade partners of the U.S. could impose $150 million in
retaliatory sanctions on American goods because the U.S. has not
repealed tariff subsidies for American companies found in
violation of trade laws. Additionally, the WTO ruled in favor of
Canada in cases involving Canadian wheat and lumber. Instead
of duties being collected by the U.S. government they have gone
to the companies directly as a way of softening the economic
impact of competition. By my reading of the ruling, it was an
appropriate one. The U.S. wins a few in the WTO and it loses a
few. It is a fair body in my estimation.
–UBS will acquire Charles Schwab’s SoundView Technology
stock-research operation for $265 million, just 8 months after
Schwab had purchased it for $321 million; a great example of
Schwab’s failures under the leadership of the recently fired
David Pottruck.
–In a highly significant court ruling, Long-Term Capital
Management LP has been ordered to pay $56 million in back
taxes and penalties for taking improper deductions. LTCM
created faulty tax shelters with no business purpose whatsoever
and this goes far beyond them. Countless corporations, including
the likes of Enron, did the same thing. LTCM, you’ll recall,
employed two Nobel Prize winners on its staff who are as guilty
as any other party in this case.
–As UAL, Delta and U.S. Air, in particular, continue to have
major problems, with UAL threatening to lay off at least 10%
more of its workforce, or 6,000, the issue of UAL and its pension
obligations will come to a head within weeks. Should UAL opt
not to continue to fund the plans, the other airlines will follow
suit, with the Financial Times estimating the potential overall
cost to the U.S. government at $13-$15 billion. Following is a
good description of the problems faced at UAL, as reported by
Amy Borrus of Business Week.
“(If UAL dissolved its pension plans, retirees would receive)
$1.9 billion less than they expect now, since the Pension Benefit
Guaranty Corp. would cover only $6.4 billion of the
underfunding. That’s because the PBGC’s payments to retirees
are capped by law at $44,386. And that maximum annual payout
is far less than most pilots and some attendants and mechanics
have been promised. Pilots face a double hit: Not only are they
big earners, but by law they must retire at 60. Yet the PBGC
reduces its payouts for those who retire before age 65. That
means a 60-year-old senior pilot at United, who could expect a
yearly pension of $100,000, would receive just $28,500. Little
wonder that some pilots at United, and other older carriers who
can take lump-sum pension payouts if they retire now, are calling
it quits.”
–With the recent struggles at Krispy Kreme and the company
bitching about this and that for a decline in sales growth, I can’t
help but notice that my local Dunkin’ Donuts is busier than ever
when I swing by each morning.
–Note to Kimberly-Clark, makers of Kleenex brand tissue.
What are you doing with all these feminine box colors? I tried to
find a plain brown or gray one the other day and none were to be
had. I don’t want a pink box of tissue sitting on my office desk,
know what I’m sayin’? If I don’t find a normal color within a
month, I’m going generic.
–Three people were killed at an IKEA store in Saudi Arabia as
8,000 stampeded to utilize their coupons…but hey, love the new
commercial with the Jack Russell terrier who thinks he’s in the
wrong house after an IKEA makeover. Brilliant…now back to
the news…
–Fidelity drastically reduced the expense ratio on five of its
index offerings, including a reduction from 0.19 to 0.10 percent
for its Spartan 500 fund, one that replicates the S&P 500. Folks,
this is a super move on Fidelity’s part as it goes after Vanguard’s
business. Of course some of my old friends on the “load” side
won’t exactly be doing cartwheels.
–Joseph Treaster wrote a terrific piece in the New York Times,
8/31, concerning a topic everyone should be aware of; that being
the issue of housing insurance and replacement cost. With the
huge surge in real estate prices, it’s important to note that
replacement cost isn’t always what it used to be. As Treaster
points out, “guaranteed replacement policy” is now more likely
“extended replacement policy” which often means policy value
plus 20-25%, aggregate.
To my broker / planner friends out there, as I put on my old sales
manager hat, this is a terrific value-added piece to send out to all
of your clients*…let alone for those of you who are insurance
agents. There are options in most cases. It will also set you
apart from the competition.
*Obviously, check beforehand with your compliance officer, guys
and gals.
–Extreme Dirtball Alert: Admittedly, I have written little of the
saga at Hollinger International, but some of the details that
emerged this week from an internal report are more than
noteworthy. Hollinger is the media giant that owns the Chicago
Sun-Times and Jerusalem Post, among other properties, and had
been controlled by former CEO Conrad Black. Black and other
top execs, the audit has determined, used Hollinger as a
“piggybank,” essentially looting it to the tune of $400 million.
Black and his wife, for example, took a trip to Bora Bora on the
company jet that cost $530,000. Black also supposedly used
company funds to buy FDR memorabilia for $8 million (he later
wrote a book on Roosevelt). And then we learn, according to the
Washington Post, that board member Richard Perle, a former
defense department official and an architect of the war in Iraq,
took $5.4 million in bonuses and compensation while clearly
looking the other way as Black and others did their thing.
–In medical news, Merck was dealt a blow when a study showed
that high doses of its marquee cholesterol-fighting drug Zocor
weren’t found to have anymore of an impact than lower doses.
[Zocor itself is still effective.] Separately, scientists are
concerned that those receiving full-body scans may increase
their risk of cancer by exposing themselves to too much
radiation. The problem here is we won’t know for years if this
proves to be the case. But at the same time I read something like
this and think that frequent flyers are also exposing themselves to
potentially high levels of radiation, particularly those taking
more polar routes, such as New York to Hong Kong. Here, too,
the body of evidence is not complete, but it’s something that
pilots and flight attendants have to consider, that’s for sure.
–My portfolio: No changes, still 75% cash; nor do I anticipate
making any big trades the rest of the year, quite frankly.
However, if there was a huge market drop due to some terror
incident, depending on the nature of the attack I would probably
try and do some bottom fishing. That’s been my mindset for the
past few years, even if I haven’t stated as much in this space.
Foreign Affairs
Iraq: Moqtada al-Sadr has emerged stronger than ever after the
battles of Fallujah and Nanaf, while Ayatollah Sistani obviously
enhanced his authority with his brokering of the deal in the latter.
As for Prime Minister Allawi, I’m more than convinced this
is the right man for the job but until his own Iraqi Army is built
up to legitimate force strength and a nationalist identity
established within, his hands are tied. We can only hope he’s
able to take out al-Sadr and survive what would be an inevitable
backlash. And not for nothing, but tensions between Turkey and
the Kurds continue to escalate with Turkey holding the largest
operation in 4 years this week against Kurdish rebels. 11 Kurds
and 2 Turks were killed in the conflict.
Iran: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets on
September 13, but it is already asserting that Iran is readying a
test of a facility for converting raw uranium into weapons-grade
material. I get a kick out of those ‘experts’ who keep saying Iran
could have a bomb in 3 years. I believe they could be testing one
by next spring.
The IAEA meeting is critical on a number of levels. Will the
body recommend that the issue go to the U.N. Security Council
for the purpose of levying sanctions, as Secretary of State Colin
Powell called for this week, or will the Europeans continue to
waffle for fear of incurring Tehran’s wrath while losing business
opportunities? One thing is for certain, it’s almost assuredly too
late to stop Iran’s march toward having an Islamic bomb and this
changes the geopolitical picture in a most dangerous way. Israel,
for starters, would face extinction.
As for the Kerry campaign, I give them credit for at least
announcing a formal position this week, which is more than the
White House has done beyond tough talk. A Kerry
administration would allow Iran to keep its nuclear plants but
would not allow it to retain the fuel, using Europe as the heavy.
Not realistic, but nice try.
Finally, imagine Iran with the bomb and our troops in Iraq.
That’s Blackmail 101. “Let us have our say here or else…”
[This whole spy situation involving the Pentagon, Iran, Ahmad
Chalabi and Israel is rapidly evolving, according to the
Washington Post, but not worth my commenting on at this
point.]
Russia: The week started with Russia’s handpicked candidate,
Ala Alkhanov, supposedly garnering 74% of the vote in
Chechnya’s presidential election. Of course there were charges
of fraud and vote-rigging and following is but one account from
the Moscow Times.
“An observer for Khamidov (the runner-up with 9%), Sharil
Tsuruyev, said Monday that at the polling station in the village of
Zakan-Yurt one of Khamidov’s observers was forced to sign the
protocol of the election results at gunpoint.
“Tsuruyev said the observer told him that only 350 people had
voted at the polling station, where 2,000 voters were registered,
but the final protocol he was forced to sign recorded that about
1,500 people voted.
“They put a submachine gun on our observer and told him: ‘Sign
or we’ll shoot you.’ The observer called Khamidov and asked
what to do. ‘He told him to sign,’ Tsuruyev said.”
A few days later, what is believed to be the 3rd woman in a 4-
member cell of Black Widows blew herself up in front of a
Moscow subway station, killing 9 others. [The Black Widows are
women who lost their husbands in the Chechen conflict. In this
particular cell, the first two took down the jets as I reported last
week.]
The day after the Moscow attack, terrorists stormed the school in
North Ossetia, bordering Chechnya, and after two days the
Russians botched another hostage crisis, this time resulting in the
deaths of over 200 as I go to post. The world was glued to the
scene on Friday and it sickened us to the core.
I keep thinking back to my trip to Moscow in November 2002,
two months after the Chechen attack on the theater there. I wrote
then of how I went to the Bolshoi twice and there was zero
security as you walked in.
China / Taiwan / Japan: Tension is clearly growing between the
communists and Japan, and now China is miffed that Japan has
granted the spiritual group Falun Gong status as a non-profit
organization, Falun Gong having been outlawed by China since
1999. And as I noted a while back, that Asian Cup soccer final
between the two was a highly significant event.
Regarding Taiwan, there were a number of developments on this
front, with Taiwan joining China in canceling its war games as a
goodwill gesture. But then President Chen Shui-bian called for
his nation to formally change its name from ROC (Republic of
China) to Taiwan. Chen correctly argues ROC is confusing
(China being PRC for Peoples Republic of China), yet Beijing
sees this as just another move by Taipei towards full
independence. Meanwhile, Chen proposed some sweeping
reforms regarding the electoral process. I won’t bore you with
the details but I thought they made perfect sense.
South Korea: The government admitted that a number of years
ago a few of its scientists produced enriched uranium, capable of
being used in a nuclear weapon. First off, no one should be
surprised and, to be fair, the amount is alleged to be far smaller
than what is needed for an actual bomb. But in breaking the
IAEA’s rules on nuclear proliferation, South Korea complicates
matters immensely; not just in negotiations with the North but
also in talks with Iran, who in turn can rightfully argue that this
is all they seek to do… “so lay off.” And it sets a bad
precedent when it comes to Japan and its own possible
intentions.
Israel: Twin-suicide bus attacks in Bersheva claimed at least 16
lives, the worst such atrocities in six months. [A 3rd attack that
day was stopped at the border.] Israel said the carnage further
pointed out the need to complete the security fence, while Prime
Minister Sharon vows he will press ahead with his Gaza
withdrawal plan (8,000 settlers) on an expedited schedule,
regardless of the level of political support.
Lebanon / Syria: Regarding the above terror attacks, Israel
warned Syria it was not immune to retaliation for harboring the
perpetrators, Hamas. Meanwhile, Syria, with 20,000 troops
already in Lebanon, has now totally hijacked the political process
here by demanding that the current Lebanese president, Lahoud,
be allowed to stay in power beyond his 6-year, constitutionally-
limited, term. Lahoud was granted a 3-year extension by a
parliament too scared to stand up to Damascus.
Saudi Arabia: The other week I noted that many oil-rich nations
such as the Kingdom waste their petrodollars instead of using
them to benefit the people. So it’s only fair that I then make note
of a piece by Scott Wilson in the Washington Post that concludes
the Saudis are now spending substantial amounts of a projected
$35 billion budget surplus in an attempt to employ some of the
350,000 who enter the workforce here each year. Most jobs in
the country go to foreigners and only 13% of the private-sector
workforce is Saudi. But, despite all this, the government is still
only able to create work for about 10% of the 350,000.
Afghanistan: Over 1,000 citizens and soldiers have been killed
here in terrorist-related activity thus far in 2004, including at the
hands of the warlords. Three Americans were killed in a Taliban
attack on an American security outfit, DynCorp, this week.
Singapore: The U.S. State Department accused the country of
having a “significant” problem in the trafficking of women for
Asia’s sex trade market. Singapore said the U.S. needs to
present the evidence before it brings such a scurrilous charge.
With all due respect, Washington, this isn’t the time to tick off a
critical ally in the war on terror, as politically incorrect as my
statement may appear to be.
Australia: Afghanistan isn’t the only nation with an important
election October 9. Prime Minister John Howard called one for
the same day. [Don’t you wish our campaigns could be this
short, my fellow Americans?] The state of the Aussie economy
is a plus for Howard’s reelection efforts, but the Iraq war is not
with Howard facing the same credibility issue that Tony Blair
and George Bush do. [And Jose Maria Aznar of Spain last
spring.] With the Spanish experience, Howard is legitimately
fearful of a large-scale terror attack on his country before the
vote.
Nepal: In retaliation for the killing of the 12 Nepalese in Iraq,
thousands, mostly Hindu, took revenge on Muslim businesses in
Katmandu. I view this as one of the more significant news items
of the week, actually. This kind of action is capable of spreading
to India, for example, if more fuel is added to the now simmering
fire.
France: The government stuck to its plan to ban headscarves in
the public schools, despite a hostage crisis of its own in Iraq. On
one hand, I understand why the French government wants to
maintain a secular position – after all, Ataturk banned the fez –
but I look around me, here in New Jersey, and think of a friend I
have at the post office next to my office who has been wearing a
headscarf for years. Khadijah ( an African-American) and I had
some heavy conversations in the days following 9/11 as I was
curious how she was being treated. Not too well, at the time, but
now folks have returned to viewing her as she has always been…
just a real nice person.
Random Musings
–For all the talk of polls and convention ‘bounces,’ and despite
the new Time magazine survey showing President Bush with a
double digit lead, you’d be foolish not to believe this election is
still a dead heat with two months to go, especially with all kinds
of uncertainty on the terror front and what should be critical
debates for the 6% or so still undecided. But at the end of the
day it’s not just about security but also the economy and the L.A.
Times had the definitive poll regarding the latter. We’re split 50
/ 50 as to whether or not we feel we are better off since Bush
took office. Until this changes in any significant way it remains
a pick ‘em affair in my book.
–On the domestic side, the argument between President Bush
and Senator Kerry boils down to Bush’s desire for an “ownership
society” vs. Kerry’s expanded safety net. But on the issue of
Social Security and personal accounts, Treasury Secretary John
Snow told Business Week, “People are intelligent in the U.S.;
they can make intelligent trade-offs.” Wrong. I have been dead
set against private accounts since Bush first introduced the
concept in his initial campaign. Social Security works and
requires some relatively minor tweaking and an economy
growing at 3% or thereabouts. Fed Chairman Greenspan
recently said we need to “recalibrate” benefits for both Social
Security and Medicare and that is probably true, but to leave it up
to Americans to make their own decisions is a recipe for disaster.
–I’m sick of the president continuously bringing up tort reform
and then not doing anything about it. Use the bully pulpit. This
is a vitally important issue, so don’t just throw the subject out
there as part of a broad speech, give a national address to
galvanize the people so they can then threaten their congressmen
with defeat at the polls unless they reform the system. And on a
different topic, for crying out loud, Mr. President, show some
friggin’ spine and veto a piece of legislation when Congress
returns.
–Convention tidbits:
Governor Schwarzenegger was electric and I’m one guy who
loved the fact he invoked Richard Nixon’s name. After all,
Senator Kerry recently did the same in praising Nixon’s foreign
policy and the opening to China. Commentators didn’t pick up
on this fact.
The Bush twins were disgraceful.
Zell Miller did the cause no good and his blanket statement
questioning the entire Democratic Party’s patriotism with regards
to the war on terror was disingenuous at best. I can give you
three senators for starters – Lieberman, Graham and Biden – who
‘get it’ as much as the president. Graham and Lieberman, for
example, have long known the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah are
gathering dangers in terms of being threats to the U.S., not just
Israel.
Believe it or not, I haven’t been a fan of Laura Bush, but now I
view her more as a sound political operative than as First Lady.
Those demonstrators hurt the Democrats, and in this deadlocked
election, a few thousand here, a few thousand there……….
–Rudy Giuliani:
“The hatred and the anger in the Middle East arises from the lack
of accountable governments. Rather than trying to grant more
freedom, or create more income, or improve education and basic
health care, these governments deflect their own failures by
pointing to America and to Israel and to other external
scapegoats. But blaming these scapegoats does not improve the
life of a single person in the Arab world. It doesn’t relieve the
plight of even one woman in Iran. It doesn’t give a decent living
to a single soul in Syria. It doesn’t stop the slaughter of African
Christians in the Sudan.”
–Along the lines of the above, the White House is crazy if they
don’t keep pounding home the theme that our struggle in the
Middle East is as much about women and human rights then
anything else. It’s powerful.
–Authorities are increasingly concerned about a new pandemic
as bird flu is back, thus far primarily in Vietnam and Thailand.
There is no vaccine as yet and the virus has apparently spread to
felines.
–This is an awful story. From the London Times:
“A Spanish medical team sent to Turkey to identify soldiers
killed in a plane crash on their return from Afghanistan got every
body it examined wrong…. [This was May’s accident.]
“In the following months the families of the 62 dead soldiers
questioned whether they had been given the correct bodies.
‘Leave the dead in peace,’ urged the then Prime Minister, Jose
Maria Aznar.
“But it turned out that 22 bodies had been handed to the wrong
families. Some of those bodies were cremated.
“Now the DNA tests have found that the Spanish medical team
incorrectly identified 30 bodies. The Turkish authorities
accurately identified (the other) 32 corpses.”
–Following is some good advice from a piece by Sam Schechner
in the Journal Online.
“To protect himself from (Web) attacks, David Perry, an
executive at the antivirus company Trend Micro, unplugs his
router when he leaves his desk, severing his high-speed
connection to the Internet. When shopping online, he always
uses a credit card with a fixed $1,000 limit. That way, if
spyware infects his PC to collect his personal information, that’s
the most he could lose.”
–Now you know why I don’t waste anyone’s time on subjects
such as Kobe or Scott Peterson. In the case of the former,
everyone else who has is now going “never mind.”
–We wish Bill Clinton well with his surgery. I forgot to mention
last time that Bill and Hillary were in Ireland when I was. Boy,
they still love him over there. One paper used the word
“Messiah” in its headline.
–Golan Cipel, New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey’s former
boy toy, announced he wouldn’t sue the governor for sexual
harassment as he had initially threatened to do. Cipel said he
was satisfied that McGreevey was quitting.
In other words, why didn’t the governor just announce he was
gay and fight any charges that may have come his way? Well,
because there is still much more to be revealed over the coming
year and McGreevey knew Cipel was but the tip of the iceberg.
Meanwhile, the September 3 deadline for him to step down in
time for a special election has come and gone. The latest poll
data reveals that 53% of my fellow New Jerseyans feel the
governor should have resigned vs. 42% who believe this fraud
should have served out his term.
–I leave you with further thoughts from Senator John McCain.
“All of us, despite the differences that enliven our politics, are
united in the one big idea that freedom is our birthright and its
defense is always our first responsibility. All other
responsibilities come second.”
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $400
Oil, $43.99
Returns for the week 8/30-9/3
Dow Jones +0.6% [10260]
S&P 500 +0.5% [1113]
S&P MidCap +0.8%
Russell 2000 +0.8%
Nasdaq -1.0% [1844]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-9/3/04
Dow Jones -1.9%
S&P 500 +0.2%
S&P MidCap +1.4%
Russell 2000 -0.1%
Nasdaq -7.9%
Bulls 43.6
Bears 27.7 [Source: Investors Intelligence / Chartcraft]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support in spreading the
word.
Brian Trumbore
