[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Russia
Just three weeks ago, 8/21, and 10 days before the Beslan
tragedy, I wrote “This whole Black Sea region (Northern
Caucasus)…could explode, particularly if Russia chooses to
allow it to do so.” Certainly the Russians did not seek Beslan,
but because the debate over Chechnya and its relation to the war
on terror is being blurred, a little history lesson is in order.
The region known today as Chechnya was absorbed by tsarist
Russia in 1859 (in what was then called the Checheno-Inguish
Republic) and the Chechens have been fighting for
independence, in one form or another, ever since. In the 1920s
the Soviet Union created autonomous regions for both the
Chechen and Inguish, but they were placed together again in
1934, then dissolved in 1943-44 due to alleged collaboration
with the Germans. [It’s useful to know that Volgograd /
Stalingrad lies a few hundred miles north of Grozny.]
Josef Stalin then deported the Chechens to Kazakhstan, while
Khruschev allowed them to return in the 1950s with the
Chechen-Inguish Republic once again reconstituted in 1957.
In 1991 the Chechens and Inguish split anew and in 1994, owing
to bloody internal strife, Russia invaded Chechnya and about
25,000 civilians lost their lives in the battle for Grozny, alone, by
’95.
In 1996, my favorite Russian of all time, the late General
Alexander Lebed brokered a peace deal on behalf of President
Boris Yeltsin and the Chechens were granted some sovereignty.
But then Lebed lost a power struggle to succeed Yeltsin and the
latter’s handpicked successor, Vladimir Putin, engineered the
apartment bombings* in the fall of 1999 that were to become the
pretext for the second Chechen war. [*I stated this in ’99, when
it happened. It was controversial to do so but now I feel
vindicated as this year Russian experts of all stripes have come
forward with the same conclusion.]
It is now estimated that 100,000 Chechens, as well as countless
Russian soldiers and civilians, the latter in Chechen terror
attacks, have died since 1994 in Moscow’s brutal attempt to
suppress the independence movement and preserve Russia’s
territorial integrity.
The world needs to understand the above before jumping to
conclusions on the situation today, though I’d be the first to
admit the struggle has gone far beyond mere independence to
become part of the global war on terror. As Senator John
McCain said last Sunday on “This Week,” at one time there was
hope in this land, but not now because Putin has literally killed
off all the moderates, only to see his own puppets taken out.
So over the past few years, Chechnya has become a prime
breeding ground for al Qaeda. Understand that the Chechens
were always about 50% Sunni Muslim, but they practiced a
‘tolerant’ brand of Islam and women were treated with respect.
Now, however, the fundamentalists are doing all they can to
change this.
Beslan was a tragedy of cataclysmic proportions, but it’s now
being used by Putin as a further pretext to continue on his road
towards dictatorship. Beslan is an excuse for a nationwide
crackdown, but not in Western terms. An editor at Izvestia was
one of the first victims, forced to resign for his coverage of the
school massacre even as government officials stayed silent
during the 52-hour siege.
But on Friday, Putin did agree to hold an open inquiry on Beslan,
rare since he held none following the Moscow theater disaster of
October 2002, nor over the recent twin bombings of aircraft by
black widows. Putin has never expressed sorrow for the victims
of the plane attacks, incidentally, and the legitimacy of the
Beslan investigation is in serious doubt.
Putin traveled to Beslan in the hours following the disaster.
Zalina Gutiyeva, a pediatrician on the scene there, recalled:
“Putin arrived and left in the middle of the night while everyone
is sleeping, probably because he was afraid to talk with the
people, to look them in the eyes.”
Another witness said of the president, “He saw no one and talked
to no one. He just wanted to show the world how young and
handsome he is, but he hasn’t helped and he won’t help, and he
can’t stop this happening again.”
[Star-Ledger]
Putin did finally address the Russian people (see “Hott Spotts”)
and vowed to reshape the security apparatus, as well as sticking
to a hard line in Chechnya. Then a few days later he told an
assemblage of reporters who had questioned his government’s
action in Beslan:
“Why don’t you (the West) meet Osama bin Laden, invite him to
Brussels or to the White House and engage in talks…you find it
possible to set some limitations in your dealings with these
bastards, so why should we talk to people who are child-killers?”
Putin is helpless and confused, as are the Russian people.
Russians look at this horrific period that has killed over 450 and
compare it to a U.S. that has not been attacked since 9/11. They
are rapidly losing faith in their government’s ability to protect
them, while Putin deals with a moribund system, slow to change
and rife with corruption.
Only now, because of Russia’s abject failure to reach a viable
solution to the Chechen crisis, the world is at risk and the
Northern Caucasus – North and South Ossetia, Adzharia,
Abkhazia, Ingushetia, and Georgia, is a seething cauldron of hate
and al Qaeda is more than happy to fan the flames.
Finally, I was amazed how few of our leaders brought up the
issue of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction stockpile when
discussing Beslan. It is time for an emergency summit of the G-
8 and President Bush et al should get in Vladimir Putin’s face
and tell him, “Listen, comrade, we’re going to help you get rid of
this threat to humanity and we’re going to do it now. It’s in your
best interests to let us in and your people will thank you for it.”
Of course I told you last week it’s probably already too late,
which is why I sleep with one eye open.
Iraq
I wrote in this space on 7/10/04 that the death toll, then around
870, would hit 1,000 by November. Unfortunately, we reached
the figure far sooner. I just hope the loved ones of our American
heroes can find peace.
As I noted last week we are paying the price for a failure of
leadership going back to May 2003 and now the U.S. is faced
with the prospect of elections in Iraq, probably in January, even
though the nation is far from secure. The vote is for the purposes
of selecting a transitional government that would be charged with
writing a formal constitution, but the credibility of any election
will be in serious doubt if there are some places, such as
Fallujah, where the people will not be granted the vote due to
security concerns. The interim government is projecting 9,000
polling places so you start doing the math…150,000 U.S. troops,
a minimally effective Iraqi force and some coalition troops,
divided by 9,000 and with all the other responsibilities that must
continue apace. Good luck.
Of course it would help if the Iraqi people would rise up against
the al-Zarqawis and al-Sadrs that sow destruction but this seems
unlikely at this time, especially when the nascent nation is
peopled with Iranians and other foreigners looking to foment
civil war.
At least the past few days the U.S. showed signs of taking the
fight to the terrorists in Fallujah, Ramadi, Najaf and elsewhere.
But if we continue to suffer casualties on the level of this past
week, election considerations may outweigh prudent action in the
case of the Bush White House.
Wall Street
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a congressional
committee that after hitting a soft patch, the U.S. economy “has
regained some traction.” At the same time the Fed was releasing
its survey of economic activity across the country and its
conclusion was that the expansion was a tepid one, with
“lackluster retail sales” and a housing sector that was cooling in
some regions. Meanwhile, various surveys of economists
continue to show reduced expectations on economic growth for
the second half (as I forecast in January) and are conceding the
global economy itself is struggling with its own “soft patch.”
Japan, for example, drastically cut its forecast for 2nd quarter
GDP to 1.3% on Friday due largely to softening U.S. demand for
its products.
So what will the Fed do when it meets on September 21? Sorry
to repeat myself, but the Fed should stand pat and not raise
interest rates due to the fact the trend in growth is down and there
is no inflation, as exemplified by Friday’s report on August
producer prices, off 0.1%.
But the Fed went so low in the first place in taking the funds rate
to 1.00% that it feels compelled to raise it above its current
1.50%. Savers, of course, love higher short-term rates but to
keep hiking in the face of a slowdown would be pure idiocy.
Ergo, the Fed’s in a box of its own making. I maintain it will
hold the line in 10 days, but I certainly am not going to be
surprised if they bump rates instead another ¼ point.
As for energy, one sector that has seen some real inflation this
year, OPEC meets this week as its president said the world
has 1.5 million barrels per day more supply than current demand,
a sentiment echoed by the International Energy Agency; thus the
market is still pricing crude way above where the fundamentals
warrant, assuming minimal disruptions on the terror front. Right
now, the IEA says global production is at 83.6 mmbd while
OPEC claims its producing about 29.3 mmbd (or 35% of overall
production). Inventories, while declining recently, are still at
levels above last year and thanks to a cool summer in the U.S.,
natural gas prices remain below $5. With excess storage, the gas
picture for this winter looks pretty good, barring record cold.
Finally, a word on the deficit. The bi-partisan Congressional
Budget Office estimated the federal deficit would come in at
$422 billion for 2004, less than projected in the spring thanks to
rising revenues amidst the economic expansion. Republicans
crowed, Democrats said “it’s still a record.”
So here’s where I come down on this issue. The deficit matters,
big time. Yes, it’s only 3.6% of GDP vs. 6% in 1983, for
example, but if you believe as I do that we may face a recession,
or at least minimal growth in 2005, and you throw in big
expenses on the war front, it will be difficult to make further
progress and down the road entitlements are going to explode.
[Let alone the administration’s plans to make some tax cuts
permanent.]
But if you tell me growth will continue at the 3% or higher range
and we don’t suffer any serious attacks on the home front or U.S.
interests abroad, I’ll admit the deficit trend is more favorable.
Longer-term, though, when you toss in the current account and
trade deficits we’re obviously playing with fire and Greenspan is
correct in describing the situation as “troubling.”
On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President
Janet Yellen had her own thoughts on the dollar, deficits and
interest rates.
“We have enormous current account deficits. We’re running
about 5 percent GDP. These are the largest we’ve ever seen.
“Over the very long term, with the dollar remaining roughly
where it is relative to other currencies, this trend is likely to
exacerbate – to go from 5 percent current account deficits to
higher levels.
“What corresponds to those deficits is the need to borrow from
the rest of the world. And ultimately escalating borrowing leads
to, over a matter of decades, as unsustainable a trend as federal
deficits, and somewhere that has to turn around, and I believe
that involves the dollar.
“That doesn’t mean that things that are unsustainable can’t last a
very long time.”
[Bloomberg News / Trader George]
Of course many of us have been drawing a slightly different
conclusion than Ms. Yellen. We may not be close to panic city,
but we’re potentially a lot closer to a crisis than she believes.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose for a 5th straight week,
finishing up 0.5% and 0.9% to 10313 and 1123, respectively.
Nasdaq had another solid week as well, picking up 2.7% to close
at 1894, it’s highest level in a number of months.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.86% 2-yr. 2.48% 10-yr. 4.18% 30-yr. 4.98%
Rates rallied on the tame inflation data and punk economic news.
–A federal judge in San Francisco ruled against the U.S. Justice
Department and its bid to block Oracle’s attempted takeover of
business software rival PeopleSoft. The government has long
held the position that Oracle should not be allowed to proceed on
antitrust grounds and the European Union could still block the
deal for the same reason. But now Justice has two months to
decide whether to pursue its case any further.
–I forgot to mention last Saturday that Medicare premiums are
set to rise a whopping 17% and then this week we learned that
healthcare premiums, overall, will rise 11.2% in 2004, the 4th
consecutive double-digit increase. But since I’m in the deflation
camp for 2005, I see these numbers and think more in terms of
their economic impact; such as one less meal eaten out, one less
job, reduced consumer spending all around, etc.
–The delay of the new version of Windows until 2006 certainly
doesn’t help the case of those looking for a big recovery in
capital spending for at least another year. Granted, computers
wear out far quicker these days because they become so
corrupted with garbage you just want to toss ‘em in the
dumpster, but why not wait until ’06 to purchase a new one?
–Barron’s had a survey of investment strategists and their latest
predictions on the market for year end. For example:
Abby Cohen / Goldman Sachs…1250 on the S&P 500
Ed Yardeni / Prudential Equity…1190
Tobias Levkovich / Smith Barney…1125
Personally, I get a kick out of those who are allowed to keep
revising their targets. I said 975 for the S&P back on 1/3/04 and
I have to stick with this. But I also wrote on 8/14/04 concerning
Nasdaq, the “major damage has been done,” Nasdaq having
reached my 12/31 target of 1760 that week.
–Mark Veverka had a great piece in Barron’s concerning
Firsthand Funds’ Kevin Landis, a portfolio manager familiar to
viewers of CNBC. Landis rode the tech bubble and piled up
spectacular returns before crashing and burning post-March
2000. But now he’s entangled in a lawsuit filed by his former
marketing director, Steven Witt, who claims Landis continually
overstated his firm’s research capabilities. The facts appear to
back Witt’s allegations. Landis’s funds are getting shelled yet
again in 2004.
–Speaking of funds, AIM & Invesco will be coughing up a
collective $450 million in fines and penalties over the coming
years as a result of their roles in the market timing scandal.
–But, on the positive side, Capital Research’s American Funds
group continues to rack up the sales. By one estimate, for the 1st
7 months of 2004 American took in 1/3 of all new money in
long-term mutual funds and almost half in July alone. [Chet
Currier / Bloomberg News] As one who knows a thing or two
about the industry, I can honestly say American deserves
whatever success comes its way. It is a quality organization, run
by good people and with strong portfolio management. The
long-term track records bear this out.
–But then we have the dirtballs, and it’s time for another note on
Conrad Black and Hollinger International. Pull up my current
“Wall Street History” piece for a detailed look at the internal
investigation into Black’s tenure as CEO of this media giant and
one thing that stands out is how, once again, corporate titans used
charity to mask outright thievery while fueling their excessive
egos. Black and his right hand man, David Radler, raided the
coffers to the tune of $6.5 million for the purpose of funding
charities in their name between 1996 and 2003. Hollinger never
disclosed this to its shareholders.
To cite just one example from the report, “Black directed
Hollinger and its subsidiaries to donate at least $445,000 to
Toronto’s Hospital for Sick Children. In return for the donation,
the hospital named a major wing of its building the ‘Black
Family Foundation Wing.’”
This goes on all the time and it’s why I vow never to attend
another major charity event the rest of my life. Those who do
are often celebrating false efforts, praising individuals who in
many cases are nothing but scumbags, using corporate funds to
gain public adulation.
I do recognize there are some, most famously Bill Gates, who do
it the right way and they deserve unstinting praise. But more
often than not it is merely self-aggrandizement of the worst kind.
For my part, I will continue to do what I can to help individuals
where I know exactly where each dollar of mine is going so I can
see the results, including the failures. [More on this later, in a
personal note.]
–U.S. Air could be declaring Chapter 11 this weekend and this
time it may be really over, finis.
–Delta faces its own huge problems, though in its case it has to
do with filling vacant pilot positions as many retire early to take
lump-sum pension payments while they are still available, a la
my recent discussions on UAL and its probable shelving of its
benefits programs. Separately, Delta is laying off 6-7,000 and
drastically cutting back flights from its Dallas hub.
–In other labor news, computer outsourcing giant EDS
announced it will reduce staffing by up to 20,000 (out of
120,000) over the next two years.
–Disney’s Michael Eisner is leaving September 2006. I really
couldn’t give a damn, but everyone else thinks it’s a big deal so I
throw it in merely for the archives.
–Congratulations to McDonald’s for reporting its 16th
consecutive increase in monthly sales. Nice comeback, thanks to
some smart menu changes.
–Former investment banking kingpin Frank Quattrone was
sentenced to 18 months in jail for obstruction of justice in the
investigation into the allocation of shares in IPOs while he was at
CSFB. Quattrone, who maintains his innocence and will appeal,
cried that the sentence was too severe and imposed “hardships”
on his ailing wife and psychologically screwed up 15-year-old
daughter. But the judge responded that with trust funds of $50
million and $26 million, respectively, the two should manage just
fine while Daddy Dirtball is in the slammer cleaning toilets.
Quattrone will, however, have up to 18 months to hone his golf
swing and Golf Handicap and Information Network reports that
Frank played about 20 rounds while awaiting sentencing,
including a superb 80 a week ago, Thursday. [Bloomberg News]
Now if you figure on a conservative six hours per round,
including travel to and from the course plus some adult
beverages afterwards, that’s 120 hours where he really didn’t
give a damn about his sick wife and troubled daughter. At least
that’s my take on the whole matter.
–My portfolio: With 11 positions equaling 25% or so of my
investment assets, it’s tough for one stock to have a real impact
in a big way. But as I’ve had no problems talking about my
losers this year, I do have to note that I’m doing very well with
my Singapore holding and I’m getting a kick out of being up 5%
in Portugal. You’ll recall I purchased this small position solely
due to the fact that I read a survey that revealed that the
Portuguese work harder than any other European Union nation.
My speculative tech positions are also improving a bit of late.
Foreign Affairs
China / Hong Kong: Key elections for the Legislative Council
are being held in Hong Kong on Sunday but thanks to a smear
campaign initiated by Beijing, the democracy movement may
have been dealt a setback, though I’ll wait to see how it all plays
out before commenting further.
Meanwhile, there are all manner of rumors as to the status of 78-
year-old Jiang Zemin and whether or not he is willing to
relinquish control over the military. The issue is likely to be
resolved at the commies upcoming retreat.
But, for all the grief I heap on China and its system, every now
and then I see something I like. For example, authorities can
now hand out life sentences for those peddling Internet
pornography, as Beijing worries about the impact of porn on
China’s youth, a well-founded concern worldwide. Freedom of
speech be damned, mused the editor, tongue half in cheek.
Israel: It looks increasingly likely that Yassir Arafat will be
expelled; at least many of us hope the stories are true. Prime
Minister Sharon should have done this long ago, just as the
United States should have taken out Moqtada al-Sadr.
South Korea: The government admitted it had extracted a small
amount of uranium in a second test the world community didn’t
know about, this one in the early 1980s. As I noted last week
after the first admission, North Korea now says it has the right to
proceed with its own program, warning of a nuclear arms race in
the region, and today it said, “We strongly suspect that the
United States may have masterminded the experiments that were
clearly of military nature.” Hey, if you’re giving out debating
points Pyongyang takes the lead, and Iran will use largely the
same argument. The truth is irrelevant in this game.
Australia: The terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah was responsible
for the attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta that killed at
least 9 and injured over 150. The Aussies were targeted once
again for supporting the U.S. in Iraq, but thankfully one of
America’s truly great friends, Prime Minister John Howard, is at
the helm and if JI was looking to impact the October 9 vote in
Australia, a la Madrid, they will be sadly mistaken.
Saudi Arabia: Florida Senator Bob Graham, a member of the
Senate Intelligence Committee, claims in a new book that Saudi
agents, aligned with the government, definitely aided the 9/11
hijackers and that the Bush administration continues to cover up
the facts.
Germany: Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democrats
were routed in a key regional election, 47.5 to 30.8 percent at the
hands of the conservative Christian Democrats. The National
Democratic Party (read Nazis) took 4%, not insignificant.
Schroeder’s attempts to reform the entrenched welfare system
are meeting fierce opposition.
Sudan: Secretary of State Colin Powell didn’t mince words in
describing the situation in the Darfur region as “genocide” with
the Muslim Janjaweed militias slaughtering black Christians.
But Powell admitted the U.N. won’t approve the sanctions he
seeks and that military action is also out of the question. In other
words…never mind.
So as God continues with the writing of his definitive “History of
the World,” to be published a week before the end of time, He’s
adding the Sudan episode to chapters on Rwanda, the Holocaust,
Stalin’s forced deportations, and other tragic examples of man’s
inhumanity to man. I imagine God just shakes his head and
muses, “This hasn’t worked out as well as I thought it would;
time to look elsewhere and start anew.”
[Actually, if you ever hear that a publishing house is running a
first printing of some 500 million copies of a tome written by a
“mystery author,” there’s your clue it’s time to make things
right.]
Random Musings
–Election 2004: Here’s my take on President Bush and the flap
over his National Guard service. I believe he served honorably,
his training was dangerous, and there was a risk his unit could
have been sent to Vietnam. I also believe he was a real wise ass
in those days and expected that his father’s influence would
prevent him from having to go across the Pacific. Did George
W. bend some rules? Probably. But do I care? No, unless
something more comes up than what was disclosed this week and
in the past.
As for John Kerry, I believe he had an agenda in volunteering for
Vietnam, but he served his country nobly. Upon his return he
made his ill-considered remarks and proceeded with his political
career. Any courage he displayed in Vietnam was left on the
battlefield and his senate record, in particular, is non-descript and
not noteworthy in the least. Now, as a presidential candidate, his
lack of conviction has been exposed for all to see. But despite
the polls suddenly showing him behind by a sizable margin, John
Kerry is not George W. Bush and thus he still has a chance.
–Vice President Cheney’s remark that if you vote for the
Democrats “we’ll get hit again” was one of the dumber political
statements and his lame excuse afterwards was even more so.
–Much has been written on a series of polls conducted across
Europe and around the world concerning feelings towards the
United States. According to Globescan, in a survey of 30 nations
John Kerry is favored over George Bush 2 to 1, with only
Poland, Nigeria, and the Philippines coming out in support of the
president. [Financial Times] But in a separate poll, 47% in
Poland find U.S. leadership in global affairs “undesirable,” while
80% of Europeans are against the Iraq war (vs. roughly 50% in
the U.S.). Of course the raw numbers at this point aren’t as
important as the fact that if John Kerry believes his election will
turn this tide he’s sadly mistaken.
–The Moscow Times had a story on Beslan and its impact on
tourism in Russia and it’s safe to say the nation was dealt a
“colossal blow” in this regard.
–One group of Russians deserves praise for their action at the
school, the commandos. From all my reading, it appears the
special forces were training at a nearby school with a similar
floor plan to Beslan’s in preparation for a rescue attempt when
the bombs went off. The commandos rushed to the scene and a
number died while attempting to shield the children’s bodies as
they ran out of the school.
The Russians are the most fascinating people in the world, and as
has been proved over the course of history, from St. Petersburg
to Volgograd, they are capable of amazing heroism. But then
there’s the flip side.
–Once again, I go to post on the eve of another hurricane hitting
the United States. For most of us, we can at least be thankful we
aren’t in Grenada or Jamaica. Otherwise, we can only wait and
pray.
–Japan has suffered through 7 typhoons this year, the most since
1951.
–A fellow in Thailand died of bird flu, another worrisome
development on this front. U.S. officials are extremely
concerned about a pandemic later this year and we are far behind
where we should be in developing and manufacturing
appropriate vaccines.
–Britain’s MI5 intelligence agency has been told by the
government to spend more time investigating animal rights
groups from the standpoint that a slew of attacks on the
pharmaceutical industry could cripple the British economy if
those companies that are hit then choose to move their operations
elsewhere. I’ve long felt outfits like the Earth Liberation Front
are almost as much of a threat as some of our foreign-based ones.
–The New York Times’ ultra-left-wing Frank Rich really has
serious personal problems. Forget his lambasting of President
Bush in one column after another. His piece from 9/4 contains
constant references to “phallic stagecraft” during the Republican
convention. Rich claims the shape of the stage Bush used to give
his acceptance speech was……..oh, never mind. Mr. Rich is
struggling with his sexuality, I guess.
–Over the years, I have written of our urban youth in a not so
flattering manner. There is much I know in this regard that I’ve
never really gotten into, and much I still can’t. Suffice it to say,
though, that with regards to my earlier comments on charity and
what I try to do, about 7 years ago I helped a high school
basketball player in Newark with his education his senior year
and then did various things for both him and his mother as he
bounced from one college to another.
The kid never graduated, though he’s a well-meaning person and
has stayed out of prison. [When you work in this area, the terms
are stark.] His mother remains a very good friend and in the past
the extended family held a party for me (from which I could
write a book) and I’ve attended numerous other functions with
them.
So this week I learned that one of the kids I met over this period
was shot to death in Irvington, New Jersey, a town next to
Newark. Omar was one who actually received his college degree
and was looking to become a fireman in Newark where he still
lived. But late Saturday night he just happened to be in the
wrong place at the wrong time. Some guys came up to him,
asked for his jewelry, he refused to turn it over and BANG!
If at times I appear to have little patience when stories of this
kind warrant comment, or when I praise Bill Cosby for his
courage in speaking the truth, I hope you understand. On this
topic I take a backseat to no one.
–Mark Helprin, contributing editor for the Wall Street Journal,
had the following conclusion on where we stand three years after
9/11.
“Neither the (9/11) commission, the president, nor the
Democratic nominee has a clear vision of how to fight and
defend in this war. Partly this is because so many Americans do
not yet feel, as some day they may, the gravity of what we are
facing.
“Three years on, that is where we stand: our strategy shiftless,
reactive, irrelevantly grandiose; our war aims undefined; our
preparations insufficient; our civil defense neglected; our polity
divided into support for either a hapless and incompetent
administration that in a parliamentary system would have been
turned out long ago, or an opposition so used to appeasement of
America’s rivals, critics, and enemies that they cannot even do a
credible job of pretending to be resolute.”
I couldn’t agree more.
–Finally, and on a far more cheerful note, a Happy 75th Birthday
to a real national treasure, Arnold Palmer. We love you, Arnie.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces and their
families.
God bless America and guide our leaders.
—
Gold closed at $402
Oil, $42.83 [Dropped a bit late Friday on the assumption Ivan
would miss the Gulf platforms. But as I go to post, it’s
wobbling.]
Returns for the week 9/6-9/10
Dow Jones +0.5% [10313]
S&P 500 +0.9% [1123]
S&P MidCap +0.9%
Russell 2000 +2.5%
Nasdaq +2.7% [1894]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-9/10/04
Dow Jones -1.4%
S&P 500 +1.1%
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +2.3%
Nasdaq -5.4%
Bulls 45.9
Bears 26.5 [Source: Investors Intelligence / Chartcraft]
Regarding the new picture of yours truly up top it’s from
Lahinch, on the west coast of Ireland. And for you Pittsburgh
fans out there, one of the homes in the distance was owned by
the Rooney family until recently.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
