[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
The Debate
New York Times columnist David Brooks.
“Kerry can”t make a decision; Bush makes them too quickly. Kerry
changes his mind by the month; Bush almost never changes his mind.
Kerry thinks obsessively about process questions, but can”t seem
to come up with a core conviction; Bush is great at coming up with
clear goals, but is not so great about coming up with the process
to get there.”
Personally, I agree with the post-debate consensus.
Senator John Kerry did what he had to do, President George W.
Bush’s performance was so-so, and anyone who gives a damn
about the future of this country, and the world, now has reason
to tune into the next two debates, as well as this coming week’s
vice presidential contest.
In keeping with last week’s thoughts, I agree with President Bush
that free nations will reject terror and that a free Iraq and
Afghanistan can begin to transform the entire region.
But I have had serious problems with how our commander-in-
chief has gone about the task, particularly as it pertains to post-
war Iraq. And so when the president says “People know where I
stand, what I believe in (and you) cannot change positions in this
war on terror if you expect to win,” I cringe.
Whatever plan the president had for Iraq has been a failure thus
far. Alter the course, for crying out loud, and hopefully the
military action in Samarra at week’s end is a recognition of this
fact.
And I take issue with the following, as stated by the president.
–‘75% of bin Laden’s close associates have been brought to
justice.’ That’s just not a fair picture of the post-9/11 world of al
Qaeda and its ability to regenerate.
–“100,000 Iraqi troops have been trained.” Bull.
–“When the generals on the ground…” Spare me. These
political hacks have ill-served this president in innumerable
ways, see Tommy Franks. [By the way, General Franks once
told the president U.S. troop strength would be just 50,000 in
Iraq after 18 months.]
–“Of course we’re doing everything to protect America.”
Hardly. The chemical and nuclear plants, the ports, airlines, and
Russian weapons of mass destruction have not been secured, to
state some of the more obvious examples.
–The U.S. has “good relations” with Russian President Vladimir
Putin. Could have fooled me.
As for the issues of Iran and North Korea, I sympathize with the
president some, but the fact is both situations have grown far
more dangerous under his watch.
There is little to say about John Kerry, on the other hand, except
that his past statements will continue to impede his campaign.
The damage has been done, vis a vis his pitiful stance on Iraq,
and he missed some huge opportunities offered up by moderator
Jim Lehrer regarding the current situation on the ground there.
[I would have had a list of all that has gone wrong, instead of
talking in generalities as the senator did.]
Kerry does get credit in my book for focusing on Russia and its
WMD, but here it’s already too late. Vladimir Putin is on the
move and is not about to cooperate with the West to any great
extent, while Kerry’s longed for summit with European leaders
shouldn’t be about Iraq, too late here as well, but rather about
putting pressure on Russia to clean up its weapons stockpile
immediately, as hopeless as this might seem.
And a word about moderator Jim Lehrer, who did a good job
except for the fact he should have asked the candidates about one
other hot spot, Taiwan. If we’re supposed to be sticking up for
democracies around the world, this is case #1.
I’m increasingly concerned China will take advantage of the
White House’s attention being diverted elsewhere and as I’ve
noted countless times before, it could all be over within a week
before the U.S. could muster any kind of legitimate response.
Lastly, here are just a few potential October surprises that could
change the dynamics of the presidential campaign.
Pyongyang tests a nuclear weapon, there is a terror attack on
U.S. soil, we catch bin Laden, Afghanistan’s election (Oct. 9)
goes surprisingly well, there is an attack on a U.S. military
installation with heavy casualties, or there is a plunge in world
financial markets precipitated by a currency crisis.
I should also just add that if the above discussion seems lopsided
in terms of criticism of Bush vs. Kerry, it’s because the former is
the man in charge…and about deeds over mere words.
Wall Street
This was a week loaded with big issues; from company specific
items such as in the case of Merck and Fannie Mae, to the
broader issues of energy, the U.S. dollar, interest rates and
presidential politics.
But for starters, the economic picture remains somewhat
muddled by my take on things. While the final revision for 2nd
quarter GDP was hiked to 3.3%, that’s still down from Q1’s
4.5%. And I continue to see earnings growth decelerating as the
consumer taps on the brakes amidst further signs of sliding
consumer confidence, while housing, a lynchpin of the recovery,
has been sending mixed signals and you’d have a tough time
convincing me we are not close to the top, a true peak
nationwide. As homeowners begin to realize this it will certainly
dampen the wealth effect.
On the positive side, manufacturing has been improving some
and Caterpillar provided a dose of good news by announcing it
saw an “unprecedented recovery” across all business lines. Since
CAT is in some 23 countries this can’t be simply dismissed when
looking at the big picture.
Plus container traffic into leading ports such as L.A. / Long
Beach and New York / New Jersey is soaring, though this
Christmas rush on the part of manufacturers can always turn into
a bust, with products then sitting on store shelves well into
January.
But then there’s energy. While other commodities are seeing a
recent resurgence, oil has hardly missed a beat, climbing over the
$50 mark, and staying there, a record $50.12 at Friday’s close.
Oil maven T. Boone Pickens, the first to tout $50 crude, now
says $60 before $40 and for now few can argue with the man.
This week’s problems in the energy arena had to do with the
continued hangover from Hurricane Ivan as 28% of production in
the Gulf of Mexico remains “shut-in.” [Pritchard Capital Partners
…great energy research, incidentally, from these good folks.] In
addition there has been increased political turmoil in Nigeria, a
large producer to the United States. The fact that the inventory
picture improved didn’t help at all, but we’ve long learned not
to make much of one week’s picture in this realm.
Then you have natural gas, which had bottomed on September 10
at $4.57 and was suddenly $7 for November delivery before
finishing Friday at the $6.75 level. Just as in the case of oil, the
issue here isn’t as much supply as it is demand. Natural gas
inventories, after all, are more than adequate compared to past
years. But there are all manner of rumblings on the demand front
this winter and the fear is we’ll see a spike in nat gas (along with
heating oil) similar to the run-up in crude this year. Should this
be the case it obviously would have a major negative effect on
the consumer, as well as some corporate profits. But in the long
run, in this instance it’s more about whether we see a
cantankerous Old Man Winter or the more charming, and mild,
Lady Winter. Personally, I’ve always opted for the latter.
Street Bytes
–The broad averages all finished up, with the Dow Jones gaining
1.4% to 10192, the S&P 500 1.9% and the Nasdaq 3.4% to the
1942 level. This in spite of the fact that Merck alone accounted
for a decline of about 85 Dow points on Thursday. But
performance was also marked by the end of one quarter and the
beginning of another. In other words, there was a bit of portfolio
manipulation taking place, sports fans, so don’t draw too many
conclusions from the end result, especially when you’d think $50
oil isn’t exactly cause to celebrate, unless you own energy issues.
–For the third quarter:
Dow Jones -3.4%
S&P 500 -2.3%
Nasdaq -7.4%
Russell 2000 -3.2%
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.99% 2-yr. 2.61% 10-yr. 4.19% 30-yr. 4.95%
The short end was unchanged, but the long end backed up some
due to the feeling, for the moment, that this mini-bond bull
market of the past few months has run its course.
–Back on 3/19/04, I did a piece for my “Wall Street History”
link spelling out the problems in the government’s calculation of
various inflation indexes such as for consumer prices. This week
in his October Investment Outlook, PIMCO’s Bill Gross let
loose.
“No I cannot sit quietly on this one…The CPI as calculated may
not be a conspiracy but it’s definitely a con job foisted on an
unwitting public by government officials who choose to look the
other way or who convince themselves that they are fostering
some logical adjustment in a New Age Economy dependent on
the markets and not the marketplace for its survival. If the CPI is
so low and therefore real wages in the black, tell me why U.S.
consumers are resorting to hundreds of billions in home equity
takeouts to keep consumption above the line. If real GDP
growth is so high, tell me why this economy hasn’t created any
jobs over the past four years. High productivity? Nonsense, in
part – statistical, hedonically created nonsense. My sense is that
the CPI is really 1% higher than official figures and that real
GDP is 1% less.” [pimco.com]
–Mark Gilbert of Bloomberg News had a good piece on the
current narrow spreads between government and corporate
bonds, the theory being that if the economy is slowing, why is
the spread so tight? Slower growth means weaker profits and
potential problems meeting interest payments, let alone if the
economy later tipped into recession. The risk premium for
corporate bond investors should thus be widening, not shrinking.
Then again if you believe we’re in a 3.5% GDP environment for
the next 12 months or so, be my guest.
–In a huge development, shares in Merck plunged 27% on
Thursday, $12, as the company announced it was withdrawing its
$2.5 billion in sales arthritis and pain medication Vioxx over
safety concerns, specifically increased risk of heart attack and
stroke. Unfortunately, this story is just beginning and the class-
action suits are already being filed as it’s clear Merck ignored
some warnings from both regulators and researchers on at least
the issue of how the drug was to be marketed. Of course the
FDA itself is under the gun for approving Vioxx in the first
place. But as the Wall Street Journal pointed out in an editorial
Friday, this debacle brings to the forefront yet again the whole
idea of risk vs. reward. All medications contain a certain amount
of risk and in the case of Vioxx, do a small number of deaths (to
date) outweigh the benefits millions may have received? Maybe
not, but it’s an important debate the medical community,
government and society in general are going to have to address at
some point on a broader level.
–Look for more fireworks on the Fannie Mae front this coming
week as whistleblower Roger Barnes testifies before a
congressional committee looking into the mortgage giant’s
fraudulent accounting. The Feds launched a criminal
investigation and Fannie’s shares tanked anew to the $65 level,
off of a high of $80. Fannie and its live-in partner Freddie Mac
control half of the residential mortgages in this country, in one
form or another, and while no one is forecasting that Fannie’s
problems will impact the ability of some to buy a home or the
level of interest rates to any great extent, the fact is
executives here were gaming the system and while actual
criminal behavior will be tough to prove, it is a scandal worthy of
inclusion in the ‘Book of Scumbags and Dirtballs.’
–Things are beginning to heat up in the currency market as
China is under growing pressure from both the U.S. and Europe
to float its currency and end its link to the U.S. dollar which has,
for example, made U.S. exports too costly and Chinese goods too
tempting to pass up here. Some experts say the Chinese yuan is
as much as 40% overvalued.
The global foreign exchange market is now estimated to be $1.9
trillion, dominated by hedge funds and traders who obviously are
not all Einsteins. Or to put it another way, this can be an
incredibly volatile casino, subject not just to manipulation (see
George Soros) but also lemming-like flights of panic. This is
where the gigantic U.S. current account deficit comes in. Japan
and China, in particular, own a tankerload of U.S. bonds and
other dollar assets and if for a variety of reasons they reverse
field, well, then you have the crisis some have been concerned
about for years.
The question to me is, will anything happen before our election?
What’s disturbing is how the level of talk from all sides has been
ratcheted up big time this week and the Bush administration
needs to find a way to cool it until after November 2. Sure, it
wants to show American workers it’s concerned about the effects
of Chinese dumping on the U.S. labor force, but if it goes too far
it could precipitate a currency and bond debacle.
–Business Week’s David Henry penned an extensive article
titled “Fuzzy Numbers” in the 10/4 issue. It’s must reading.
Henry writes that despite all of the accounting reforms enacted
over the past few years, the manipulation continues. Here is but
a small sample from his work.
“Today’s financial reports are more difficult to understand than
ever. They’re riddled with jargon that’s hard to fathom and
numbers that don’t track. They’re muddled, with inconsistent
categories, vague entries, and hidden adjustments that disguise
how much various estimates change a company’s earnings from
quarter to quarter…
“The upshot: The three major financial statements – income,
balance sheet, and cash flow – that investors and analysts need to
detect aggressive accounting and get a full picture of a
company’s value are out of sync with one another. Often, the
income and cash-flow statements don’t even cover the same time
periods…
“As analysts and investors drill deeper into these financials,
they’re finding some nasty surprises. Accounting games are
spreading beyond earnings reports as some companies start to
play fast and loose with the way they account for cash flows.
That’s a shocker because investors always believed cash was
sacrosanct and hard to trump up. Now they’re discovering that
cash is just as vulnerable to legal manipulation as earnings.”
Here’s what I take out of it all. As you saw once again in the
case of Fannie Mae, diversification is paramount. [Or Merck, to
cite a non-accounting issue.] But consider this. The U.S., in
terms of transparency, is still the best market around and to those
who urge one to put a large portion of one’s assets overseas,
particularly in emerging markets, I’d say watch out. You think
it’s bad here? How can you then believe some of the pabulum
served up by foreign operations in less-developed markets that
have a fraction of the oversight we do? Just my opinion.
–In a classic move for today’s Russia, state-controlled NTV ran
a documentary alleging former Yukos Chairman Mikhail
Khodorkovsky may have been involved in financing Chechen
terrorism as well as individual murders. Now NTV didn’t
exactly mention Khodorkovsky by name but the link was clear.
[The Moscow Times]
–ConocoPhillips bought a 7.6% stake in Russia’s Lukoil (then
increased it to 10%), while the state said it was lifting all foreign
ownership restrictions on natural gas giant Gazprom. But Mr.
Editor, you might be musing, I thought you said a few weeks ago
that Gazprom was a threat to Eastern Europe, in particular, down
the road? Don’t worry, comrades, it still is. The Russkies may
have removed the restrictions, but they still retain 51%.
And on Friday, Judy Dempsey had a piece in the International
Herald Tribune echoing my thoughts of 9/18 while adding some
good data.
Gazprom supplies about 25% of Western Europe’s natural gas
and is “the sole supplier to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and
Slovakia, and provides 91 percent of Hungary’s gas imports, 79
percent of Poland’s and nearly three-quarters of the Czech
Republics.”
One day they could just shut off the tap.
–According to Pritchard Capital, a leading oil & gas driller is
seeing its season extended in Alaska. Why? Chalk it up to
global warming…seriously. [My opinion, not necessarily that of
Pritchard.]
–ISI economist Ed Hyman is deserving of the many accolades to
come his way over the years, but on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall
Street” Hyman said “Housing is this cycle’s Nasdaq.”
At first I thought, oh, he’s in the bubble camp. But nooooooo.
Hyman elaborated that we were still early in the bull market for
housing before we see any kind of serious correction. I beg to
differ.
–The International Monetary Fund says worldwide growth in
2004 will be the strongest in 31 years, 5%. But in emphasizing
strong housing markets worldwide, it admitted this was also the
biggest risk.
–Here’s an interesting tidbit, courtesy of Lipper Associates and
the Journal. The Lehman Aggregate Bond Index (a broad
measure of performance) has now outperformed the S&P 500 for
the 7-year period ending August 31, 7.1% to 4.5% on an
annualized basis.
–Global chip sales were up just 1% in August over July.
–PeopleSoft’s board fired CEO Craig Conway for lack of
performance. Conway fended off Oracle’s hostile bid citing its
inadequate offer, though with Friday’s decision to can Conway
the board nonetheless maintains it wants to stay independent.
As for Conway himself I’m sure he was offered some nice
parting gifts, including a year’s supply of Good Humor
Whammy Sticks, a GE washer / dryer, and the home version of
the PeopleSoft board game…that plus a grillion dollars.
–Forstmann Little, the buyout group controlled by Ted
Forstmann, has acquired the talent agency IMG, founded by the
late Mark McCormack and best known for its relationship with
Arnold Palmer and stars of today including Vijay Singh, Annika
Sorenstam and Tiger Woods. You remember Tiger, don’t you?
–The median salary of 215 chief executives at non-profit
organizations was $291,000 in 2003.
–Sadly, 1 in 5 homes in Florida has been damaged by the
hurricanes. Scott P., who hails from Melbourne, FL, and luckily
suffered limited damage, weighed in on the economic impact.
“What available credit most Floridians have remaining will be
spent on plywood, cordless drills and Tapcons (a.k.a. concrete
anchors).
“Regarding the housing bubble, it may have already burst in
Florida. You cannot close on any home without proof of
insurance and most insurers, here, aren’t underwriting new
policies at this time. As a result, home sales in our county were
recently reported to be off nearly 20% from August.”
–AT&T will be cutting 10,000 jobs in call centers over the next
few weeks, in addition to previously announced layoffs.
–Top officials at Citigroup are being investigated by the SEC for
failing to supervise during the Bubble and after; the most recent
examples of bad behavior being the bond desk in London and the
entire retail operation in Japan. Citigroup’s famously aggressive
corporate culture is coming back to bite them in the butt and the
damage to its international reputation is growing.
But Sandy Weill has a hospital wing named after him!
Meanwhile, in an attempt to clean up its image, Sallie
Krawcheck, who was heading up the Smith Barney brokerage
unit, was named CFO, making her the highest-ranking woman on
Wall Street at the tender age of 39. By all accounts she is
deserving of the post.
–Delta Airlines is attempting to avoid bankruptcy by cutting the
pay of most of its employees 10% as well as…you guessed it…
slashing health benefits.
–By the way, the U.S. airline industry has lost a cumulative $35
billion since 2000, including a projected $5 billion for ’04, a year
that was supposed to be a breakeven or slightly profitable one
until fuel prices went bonkers.
–As noted above, shipping is up substantially, 10%, for the first
7 months of the year at the ports of New York & New Jersey.
Unfortunately, furniture makers in the Carolinas won’t like the
fact that furniture shipments into the U.S. through this area are
up 27%. But, as my brother pointed out, at least beer drinkers
should take note that containers filled with beer & ale are up a
solid 15%. Must be all about the recent studies showing a beer a
day is just as good for one’s health as a glass of wine. At least
that’s my take on things and I’m sticking to it.
–Back on August 18 Google’s IPO was priced at $85. Friday the
stock closed at $132. Goodness gracious.
–As you know by now, Martha Stewart will be serving her 5-
month prison sentence at a facility in Alderson, West Virginia.
It’s possible she may earn 12-40 cents an hour, which is the
standard wage in most Third World nations, by the way. Hell, I
thought the minimum wage in this country was something like
$5.50, so I’m thinking, why don’t the ladies at Alderson riot for
more?…………………….I was just informed this may make their
situation worse………………..never mind.
Foreign Affairs
North Korea: Pyongyang claimed it “weaponized” all 8,000 fuel
rods, though it was unclear exactly what was meant by this,
while the vice foreign minister told a UN panel that the danger of
war on the Korean Peninsula “is snowballing.”
China / Taiwan: With focus on the presidential debate here in
the U.S. and on the action in Iraq, the issue of Taiwan slipped
below the radar screen at a time when the level of rhetoric
between Beijing and Taipei went up six-fold; this as Taiwan’s
leadership is attempting to gain legislative approval for an $18
billion arms package from the U.S. designed to better Taiwan’s
defenses.
But then Premier Yu Shyi-Kun (#3 in the hierarchy) weighed in.
“You fire 100 missiles at me, I fire 50 at you. You hit Taipei and
Kaohsiung (Taiwan’s two biggest cities), I at least hit Shanghai.”
In other words, for the first time a Taiwanese leader talked of an
‘offensive’ force. The premier was comparing it to the balance
of terror, as he put it, between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. during
the Cold War.
Well, China fired back with the foreign minister saying Yu’s
remarks were a “serious threat posed by the separatist activities
of Taiwanese authorities to the stability of the Taiwan Strait and
the peace of the Asia / Pacific region.”
Folks, this exchange has taken the prospect of Taiwan’s
independence to an entirely new and dangerous level.
On a less serious note, you have the debate between Singapore
and Taiwan. You’ll recall Singapore’s leadership has been
attempting to get its counterparts on Taiwan to lower their voices
on independence, claiming it would do great harm to the region
if Taiwan pursued this path. So this week Taiwan’s foreign
minister countered “Even a country the size of dried mucus
brazenly criticized Taiwan (in) the United Nations.”
Can’t say I’ve heard this insult before. It’s kind of gross, I think
you’d agree. A spokesman later apologized.
Russia: In “An Open Letter to the Heads of State and
Government of the European Union and NATO,” former Czech
President Vaclav Havel, senators John McCain and Joe Biden,
and conservative William Kristol, along with 111 others, said
some of the following on the subject of President Vladimir
Putin’s recent political maneuvering.
“All too often in the past, the West has remained silent and
restrained in its criticism in the belief that President Putin’s steps
in the wrong direction were temporary and the hope that Russia
would soon return to a democratic and pro-Western path…
“The leaders of the West must recognize that our current strategy
towards Russia is failing.”
The letter also addresses “the conduct of Russia in its foreign
relations.”
“President Putin’s foreign policy is increasingly marked by a
threatening attitude towards Russia’s neighbors and Europe’s
energy security, the return of rhetoric of militarism and empire,
and by a refusal to comply with Russia’s international treaty
obligations.”
In a separate development, further buttressing the above, a
legislative proposal was put forward this week that would
effectively give President Putin the ability to personally appoint a
majority on the Supreme Qualification Collegium, “which makes
key decisions on appointing and dismissing judges.” [London
Times]
Finally, Russia announced it would sign the Kyoto Protocol on
global emissions, but before you get all excited by this (if you are
so environmentally inclined) understand the Kremlin will merely
use it as a bargaining chip.
Israel: Tuesday marked the 4th anniversary of the incredibly
unsuccessful and destructive intifada that has only furthered the
misery of the Palestinian people, while killing countless Israelis.
And violence escalated to its worst level in years following a
Palestinian rocket attack that killed two Israeli children. At least
28 Palestinians were killed on Thursday in retaliation.
Separately, a Hamas leader (you’d think they’d all be dead by
now) was killed in Damascus, a none too subtle message to Syria
to stop hosting terrorists.
As to the issue of the security wall, Israel’s domestic intelligence
agency, Shin Bet, reported that there has been an 84% decrease
in the # of Israelis killed since completion of the first part of the
fence.
[In a series of interviews this week, Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf said the problems with al Qaeda can all be traced back
to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This has long been a copout
for all leaders in the region, though there is a shred of truth in it.]
Britain: Another tough week all around for Tony Blair as he
faced his fellow Labor Party members at their annual meeting
and apologized for the faulty intelligence in the lead up to the
Iraq War. But Blair added while his judgments may have been
fallible he would never apologize for ousting Saddam.
In a leading poll, 64% think Blair has not been a good prime
minister, but the same percentage still prefer him to opposition
leader Michael Howard, which tells you everything you need to
know about this lightweight.
Finally, on Friday, Blair underwent a relatively minor heart
procedure, looked fine afterwards, and claimed he will run for a
3rd term next year. Let me remind you of something I wrote in
this space on 1/31/04.
“Blair will be stepping down by year-end in favor of Gordon
Brown, citing health reasons.”
I stand by this in full.
[Memo to John Kerry: We note that two British soldiers were
killed in an ambush in Basra this week, bringing Britain’s death
toll in the war to 68.]
European Union / Turkey: A decision on whether or not to
proceed with Turkey’s candidacy for the E.U. is slated for this
Wednesday. Should the Commission vote yes, there is still the
matter of a vote by the full 25-member Union in December and it
must be unanimous at that time. [If approved, then it’s a 10-15
year process in the case of Turkey before final admittance.]
Turkey has put through all the reforms to its penal and legal code
that the E.U. requested, including the abandonment of the highly
controversial adultery clause. I am not optimistic about Turkey’s
chances in December, however, and if the E.U. nixes the Turks
for fear its booming population is too much of a threat under the
recently re-worked E.U. constitution (yet to be ratified), just
remember that one day in the not too distant future the same
Europe could be crying for Turkey’s labor force as the rest of the
continent ages amidst a baby bust.
Germany: More from the ‘Eastern’ front, with the leader of the
National Democratic Party describing Hitler as a “great German
statesman.” These are the folks who garnered a significant 9% in
one state election the previous week.
Brazil: President Luiz Lula da Silva’s approval rating is rising as
his economic reforms take hold. GDP rose 5.7% in the 2nd
quarter here, the fastest rate in 8 years.
Random Musings
–A key Pentagon advisory board has issued a report saying the
U.S. should “rush to fashion a layered defense network…to
protect America from a clandestine nuclear attack.” [Defense
News]
But Bradley Graham of the Washington Post did an extensive
piece this week on the serious doubts among some as to the
effectiveness of the national missile defense system, along with
the huge cost overruns associated with the project. You know
where I stand…we have to proceed.
–I give Bill O’Reilly credit for a decent interview with President
Bush, but now “Factor” is hawking yet another tome, “The
O’Reilly Factor For Kids.” I may have to pick it up for “Bar
Chat,” not that I have anything to do with that column.
But I have some of my own advice for kids. Don’t become a
New York Mets or Red Sox fan. [The Cubbies, on the other
hand, are generally lovable losers, except for down the stretch
this season. Chicago has turned surly.] I’d also tell kids to take
up poker.
–A friend and I were talking about how the definition of ‘early
admission’ at America’s colleges is being stretched further and
further, including to spring of a high school student’s junior year.
That’s absurd. What the hell is the incentive to give a damn
about one’s entire senior year then? No child leaping ahead, I
say.
–Inane hurricane banter, as seen on Fox. Host John Kasich, to
his associate Carol down at the National Hurricane Center.
Kasich…nearly out of breath: “With all the activity down there
Carol, what are they doing?!”
Carol: “Well they’re tracking the storm.”
Click………….
–So I’m channel-surfing late Tuesday night and stumble on
BET’s Comedy Awards show. Just then L.L. Cool J (a rapper)
comes out to perform a tune and it was one of the more obscene
acts I’ve ever witnessed. Basically, he didn’t let go of his crotch
the whole time as the audience whooped and hollered. Where is
Bill Cosby when you need him, I mused?
–I’ve decided the earth is comprised of 2% air, 2% water, 2%
informed folks, and 94% morons who call into sports talk shows.
–My friend Harry Koza, who writes a great column for
GlobeInvestor.com up Canada way, is already prepared for winter.
“All I need now is a couple of cords of firewood and a side of
moose in the freezer and I”ll be all set.”
–I love Washington, D.C. and going to the museums each year,
but this new National Museum of the American Indian looks like
a total bore. As for baseball returning to the area, via Montreal,
just one question? Does D.C. get Molson in the package?
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $421
Oil, $50.12
Returns for the week 9/27-10/1
Dow Jones +1.4% [10192]
S&P 500 +1.9% [1131]
S&P MidCap N/A
Russell 2000 +3.4%
Nasdaq +3.3% [1942]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-10/1/04
Dow Jones -2.5%
S&P 500 +1.8%
S&P MidCap +4.5%
Russell 2000 +5.1%
Nasdaq -3.1%
Bulls 51.0
Bears 22.9 [Source: Investors Intelligence / Chartcraft]
Have a great week. I appreciate the support.
Brian Trumbore
