[Posted 7:00AM ET]
Iraq and Afghanistan
Despite the ongoing casualties that sicken us all, I choose to look
on the brighter side of things in Iraq this time as over the past
few weeks the U.S. has adopted a more aggressive posture in
taking out the terrorists, one by one (a la Israel), in hellholes such
as Samarra and Fallujah. The military, for its part, will tell you
it’s taken this long to act partly because only now is there the
required Iraqi component for post-conflict peacekeeping. It’s a
year too late, and history will forever document the colossal post-
war mistakes that were made out of both sheer arrogance and
incompetence.
But there is still hope as we plunge towards elections in January
and I say again, one of the primary goals these next few months
is to keep interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi alive.
No doubt, though, most of us wish Moqtada al-Sadr was dead
rather than cutting deals for a role in Iraq’s political process. But
Allawi is the kind of aggressive, yet shrewd manipulator that is
needed to negotiate between the differing factions in the country.
This was also the week that Afghans went to the polls. Like all
of you I prayed it would go well and it did. With just minimal
cries of protest, and even less violence, the coalition and the
courageous leadership of Hamid Karzai pulled it off. I would
just urge patience, lots of it.
I’ve told this tale before but it bears repeating as I thought about
my own experience this week in observing Afghanistan. Back in
1985 I was in India on a work assignment, stationed in Cochin
which is in the state of Kerala. I’m not sure what Kerala is today
but back then it was a communist state and there was a
loudspeaker outside of my hotel room that blared communist
slogans almost the entire night. I’d lie in bed, unable to sleep,
and think about how much I hated the place.
But to get through the night the political scientist in me would
wage war with the commies, theoretically, and I kept reminding
myself that after less than 40 years of independence America
wasn’t in great shape either. And in relative terms India has
surely made tremendous strides since my visit.
Events change much faster these days, witness the fall of the
Berlin Wall, and we obviously can’t wait 40 years for
Afghanistan to become a truly stable democracy. So much has to
be done; starting with more NATO forces so, coupled with the
respectable Afghan Army, the warlords, terrorists and poppy
fields can be taken out. It will require lots of patience and
commitment in the form of Western dollars and manpower. But
we’re off to a better start than anyone could have imagined.
You know that Kenyan environmentalist who won the Nobel
Peace Prize? Nothing against her kind but in this age of terror
and strife the Peace Prize deserves to go to true peacemakers.
Maybe no one deserved it last year. So don’t hand it out then.
But wouldn’t it be great next year if Hamid Karzai and Iyad
Allawi were selected as co-recipients? It can happen, God
willing.
Wall Street
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but we have suddenly entered the
realm of a scandal a week. Two weeks ago it was Merck and
Vioxx. Last week it was Chiron and tainted flu vaccines. And
this week it was the biggest of them all, New York Attorney
General Eliot Spitzer’s bombshell that the insurance industry, led
by the brokers, is fixing prices on all levels of policies; in
essence, rigging bids so the consumer is denied the best price.
As this story unfolds, and as Americans get to see how it has hit
them in the pocketbook, by considerable sums, there should be a
storming of the gates. Not only of the insurance company
headquarters, but also the offices of the state regulators who are
charged with looking out for us little guys.
As I write this I’m thinking of an example I told you of before,
the condominium complex where I’m association president and
the property / casualty premium of two years ago that jumped
$12,000 in 12 months. [It did come back down the following
year but looking back, guess what? An Aussie company put in
the bid and I haven’t seen their name implicated as yet. Free
trade anyone?] Of course I don’t know if there was collusion in
our case, but all insurance companies jerked us around in the
New York and Washington, D.C., areas, in particular, let alone
for commercial real estate nationwide in the post-9/11 era.
Eliot Spitzer described an industry that is “thoroughly corrupt,”
tainting “virtually every line of insurance.” The attorney general
catches a lot of flack for his political ambitions, but I have
virtually no problem with his aggressive actions of the past few
years. Without him little of this, including the IPO and mutual
fund scandals, would have ever come to light and if I was a New
York resident and Spitzer (Dem.) ran for governor, this is one
Republican who’d vote for him.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to send out mostly
mixed signals. The government’s report on retail sales in
September, for example, was better than expected, but readings
on consumer confidence continue to decline and factory output
has not been as strong as some thought. And CEOs are still
largely cautious when it comes to loosening the purse strings for
capital expenditures, as witnessed by the statements of many tech
companies both large and small. On the earnings front, Intel was
less than spectacular and General Motors reduced its guidance
while seeing its credit rating downgraded.
Looking overseas, Singapore reported a sharper than anticipated
decline in 3rd quarter GDP and consumer sentiment in Germany
and Japan, to cite but two examples outside the U.S., continues to
decline here as well. And then, critically, you have evidence
China’s juggernaut of an economy is finally slowing which
precipitated a stampede out the door in many commodities this
week. “Hey, don’t forget the copper you left on the desk!”
[Copper witnessed its worst decline since 1996.]
Now I know there are also lots of positives, such as a resurgence
in the travel sector and the American consumer’s ability to keep
spending even when they really don’t feel like doing so.
But then you have energy, with West Texas crude closing the
week at another record, $54.93 (or 9 six-packs of Heineken). For
crying out loud, oil was $42.83 just five weeks ago and back then
the level was deemed outrageous.
You all know the usual suspects by now, led by demand from
China whose oil imports rose 33% in the first half of the year.
[Tanker rates to Asia, coincidentally, rose 33% as well.] Today,
though, the real concern is winter and will there be enough
supply to meet demand. Heating oil appears to be a real
problem, but natural gas inventories are more than ample thus
far.
When I filled up the tank of my Honda Accord the other day I
paid $2.12 for regular, up almost overnight from $1.99. I know
most of you are paying far more than this and it’s starting to bite.
[Breaking $2 before the election is also awful news for the Bush
campaign.]
But let’s talk about capital spending in the energy sector. The
Financial Times ran a good piece that encapsulates the issue.
The amount spent on exploration by the 10 largest listed energy
companies exceeds the commercial value of the oil and gas that
was discovered the past three years. Now as new discoveries are
developed the yield increases but you can’t just ignore the facts,
especially those wondering why the oil companies don’t spend
more with prices as high as they are.
It’s not merely price dictating expenditures these days, it’s also
limited “material” opportunities. With few exceptions, the
monster fields are already being tapped, and in some cases near
being tapped out. True, should oil stay above $40 for much
longer exploration budgets will rise at a solid pace, but an actual
boom a la the 1970s? I don’t see it. These companies have
shareholders (including me) after all and management isn’t going
to just throw money around, especially if the risk / reward ratio
isn’t in their favor. And therein lies a huge problem as we seek
to wean ourselves off of oil from all sources, let alone the Persian
Gulf.
As for those looking to nuclear power as a solution, as it is in
France and Germany, good luck. Even if we did all suddenly
become ‘enlightened,’ it would take more than a decade to have
any real impact on reducing demand for oil. In the meantime,
get out those sweaters.
Street Bytes
–For the week the major averages slipped again, with the Dow
Jones and S&P 500 each off 1.2% to 9933 and 1108,
respectively. Nasdaq suffered a minimal decline of 0.4% to the
1911 level. Dow 10000 is a critical psychological barrier for the
presidential campaign. Thursday’s announcement of Eliot
Spitzer’s investigation crushed insurance stocks and three senior
executives, two at Marsh & McLennan and one at Ace, have
already been arrested. And then on Friday, Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan gave a speech saying he wasn’t concerned about the
impact of record high oil on the economy. I beg to differ.
Where I do agree with Mr. Bubble is that high oil is a threat to
growth more than it is a forecast of inflation.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.99% 2-yr. 2.52% 10-yr. 4.06% 30-yr. 4.85%
Bonds on the longer end of the curve rallied a bit on the less
impressive economic news. The U.S. trade deficit, though,
continued to soar. 30% of it these days is the result of high oil
prices.
–Regarding the 4th quarter, historically the Dow Jones has risen
45 of 58 years since 1945. The other quarters all show a rise in
33 to 35 of the 58. Since 1970, November and December,
specifically, have been the strongest months. [Wall Street
Journal]
–I alluded to tanker rates earlier. The very large crude carriers
(VLCC in the biz) that carry 2 million barrels of oil are earning
more than $140,000 a day in routes from the Persian Gulf to
China, South Korea and Japan. Break-even for these operators is
normally around $27,000 a day. [South China Morning Post]
–Good time to be a stowaway, eh?
–Flu could be a major economic factor over the coming months.
–Apple Computer reported a blowout quarter and the shares
rallied $5 on the news. The main impetus was a fivefold increase
in iPod sales. Yes, the “next big thing” is downloading music.
We are saved!
–Along the same lines as the above was Intel’s announcement
that it was ending its quest for more speed in its Pentium
microprocessors after 30 years. 3.6 Ghz will be the peak as
‘clock speeds’ are basically too fast for the electrical signals, let
alone the fact the high-speed chips generate too much heat. At
least I think I have this right.
–Yahoo came in with earnings that matched expectations,
though with soaring revenues the stock initially rose on the news
before giving it back later. I’ve long given up looking at
valuations on this company and its brethren; eBay, Amazon and
now Google. Short ‘em at your own risk. But in the interest of
full disclosure I do have to note that on Thursday I placed my
biggest order ever for books on Amazon due solely to the fact
my favored neighborhood book store went out of business and
the local Borders sucks. That said there is no doubt the buzz for
e-tailers will be greater than ever this Christmas season.
–Former Rite Aid vice chairman Franklin Brown was sentenced
to 10 years for his role in one of the great accounting scandals in
history. Brown now joins five other execs at the drug store chain
in the pokey.
–When I mentioned last week that Merrill Lynch got out of the
energy business in 2001, I should have added it was largely a
result of the felon Daniel Gordon’s activities. Merrill is now
back in it. This week the firm reported that overall revenue was
down 3% from a year ago due to the slower retail brokerage
environment.
–I forgot to put in for a new printer as part of the $137 billion
corporate tax bill just passed by Congress, about $14 billion of
which is for hurricane relief. The rest, excepting another $5
billion, is all pork.
–The National Retail Federation estimates that Halloween is
now a $3 billion industry and 56% of Americans will don
costumes. Since Halloween falls on a Sunday this year I won’t
be trick or treating. I have to catch “Desperate Housewives,”
you understand.
–Those of you who watched Louis Rukeyser over the years are
familiar with one of his frequent guests, Marty Zweig. Way back
in the late 80s I worked on a deal with him and he’s a first class
guy. Well, Zweig is in the news this week because the strategist
/ hedge fund manager just put his Fifth Ave. penthouse in New
York (atop the Pierre Hotel) on the market. 16 rooms, 9
bedrooms, 6 baths, 11,000-square feet in total and a grand salon
with a 23-foot ceiling. Maintenance, including maid service with
pillow mints(!), sets you back $48,000 a month.
So what is he asking? Try a record $70 million, however most
experts don’t think he’ll get this. [New York Post]
–With examples like the above it’s easy to see why New York
City’s rebound continues, though without much actual help from
Wall Street this time. Instead it’s retail and tourism that are
leading the way out of the post-9/11 doldrums and, according to
Crain’s New York Business, total employment by the end of
2005 will be just shy of 2000’s record level.
–In the World Economic Forum’s annual list of most
competitive nations (based on a variety of factors), the top five
are…….
#5 Miss Denmark!
#4 Taiwan!
#3 Sweden!
#2 USA! And remember, America, if the #1 nation is unable to
grow its economy, and in a fair manner, we assume the title
………..so, the most competitive nation in the world is………
Finland! Aarghh!
By the way, out of 104 nations in the survey, Chad was last.
–Allow me to digress for a moment. I did some work this week
on Paraguay for a little project I’m involved in. Nothing may
come of it, and I can’t get any more specific than that, but I’ve
already learned a few things.
Here’s some history I didn’t know and I assume many of you
don’t as well.
From 1864-70, Paraguay fought in the War of the Triple
Alliance; Paraguay vs. Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. You’re
reading that right. Paraguay lost 50% of its entire population in
this fiasco, and……90% of its males!
Folks, it takes more than one or two generations to recover from
a shock like that, and it’s little wonder that in the above list of
competitive nations, Paraguay is today #100.
–My portfolio: I have made the comment on more than one
occasion recently that you need to be careful investing in
emerging markets. I’m afraid I left the wrong impression,
though, especially since you know I have dabbled in the area
myself. I just want my point to be “never go overboard” and
unless you know something about the country or specific
investment, stay away. Or, you can obviously buy a good mutual
fund or the new iShares. For foreign / emerging market bonds, I
can safely recommend PIMCO, though I urge you to read their
portfolio manager comments, updated frequently, on pimco.com
before doing so to better gauge how much to invest and in what
sectors.
Anyway, I currently have about 8% of my portfolio overseas in
three positions. The other 22% in stocks is in 9 domestic issues.
I’ll lay out my cryptic lineup next week.
But remember the following when investing overseas,
particularly in equities. If the U.S. tanks, so will the rest of the
world, though maybe not as much. At least for the foreseeable
future that’s the case regardless of what you hear the talking
heads say on television.
–Researchers now believe Hurricane Ivan spawned a 90-foot
rogue wave in the Gulf of Mexico. 90!….just in case you’re
wondering why the oil and gas facilities out there took such a hit
and are taking so long to be repaired.
Foreign Affairs
China / Taiwan: It bears repeating that in all four presidential
debates (including Edwards v. Cheney), there wasn’t one
question pertaining to the issue of Taiwan. Pitiful.
Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian addressed his people last
Sunday in two speeches on the anniversary of the founding of the
Republic of China. Aside from a discussion on the economy,
Chen talked about the cross-strait relationship between Taipei
and Beijing.
“Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait could result in irreparable
damage to the people on both sides. Therefore, I propose that
both sides should seriously consider the issue of arms control and
take concrete action to reduce tension and military threats across
the Taiwan Strait….
“We believe only when both sides are committed to exercising
restraint and avoiding any action that might further complicate
the situation or induce conflicts, can we ensure that cross-strait
relations develop on a peaceful and stable path…
“In the long term, both sides should formally end the state of
hostility across the Taiwan Strait and establish confidence-
building measures through consultations and dialogues.”
But in suggesting that contacts resume after 12 years, Chen
appeared to define the Republic of China, the legal name that the
government has used for decades, as the island of Taiwan but not
the mainland.
“The sovereignty of the Republic of China is vested with the 23
million people of Taiwan. The Republic of China is Taiwan, and
Taiwan is the Republic of China. This is an indisputable fact.”
This flies in the face of Beijing’s “one China / two systems”
agenda and as you can imagine the communists weren’t happy.
Chen added, in the realm of self-defense:
“We cannot rely on others to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait,
and we must develop our own abilities to protect the current
status quo…It is also the foundation that will enable the two
sides to pursue dialogue on an equal footing.
“Don’t think the enemy will not come; instead, be ready and
prepared. If Taiwan lacks a strong national defense, how can it
deter military invasion or prevent outbreak of war?”
Chen also made reference to his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.
“Cross-strait relations are not necessarily a zero-sum game.
There will never be a winner unless it’s a win-win situation for
both sides. I believe the fourth-generation leadership on the
other side of the strait should be able to fully understand this
point.”
For its part, a spokesman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs
Office had this to say.
“Chen Shui-bian claimed that he intends to ease tensions and
confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, he has obstinately stuck
to his separatist stand of ‘one country on each side’ of the Strait.
(If Chen continued pushing for Taiwan independence), it will
only bring great catastrophe. (He) has continued to deny the fact
that Taiwan is a part of China and has wantonly stigmatized and
viciously attacked the motherland to fuel the tension across the
Strait.”
Meanwhile, French President Jacques Chirac was in China.
“Our two countries…contribute to the necessary rebalancing of
the grand triangle formed by America, Europe and Asia.”
I think that was a shot, my fellow Americans.
[Sources: South China Morning Post, International Herald
Tribune]
Iran: Russia did the U.S. and Europe no favors in finalizing an
$800 million deal to start up Iran’s first nuke plant. It’s a huge
blow as Iran continues on its merry way to forging a reign of
terror in the entire region unless they are stopped.
Russia: The 40-day period of mourning expired in Ossetia this
week following the Beslan school tragedy and there are
widespread fears of retribution across the Caucasus. The
potential for reigniting old blood feuds is high and this is one of
the last things we need. It can start small but spread quickly and
it would just give Vladimir Putin a further excuse to flex his
muscles. For his part, Putin visited China this week, along with
everyone else, and he’s under intense pressure to approve an oil
pipeline to the mainland from Siberia, China being desperate for
energy as you know all too well by now. But Putin still appears
to be favoring a pipeline to the Pacific that would be primarily
for Japan’s use as well as exports to the U.S. and elsewhere,
including China. It’s perhaps his biggest foreign policy decision
of the next few years.
Japan: The country is increasingly wary of China, particularly
since China has what Japan doesn’t; nukes, long-range missiles
and territorial claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan. Japan
continues to rely on the U.S. for protection but for how long?
Personally, I hope it ramps up its military capability quickly, and
with U.S. support.
Australia: Prime Minister John Howard’s Liberal-National
(center-right) coalition scored a resounding victory in capturing
its 4th consecutive term. Howard now has a strong majority in
parliament for continuing with his reform agenda. And for all
the talk of Iraq being the primary issue, including in this space,
voters evidently decided the economy was far more important
and by a wide margin awarded Howard for the 13-year Aussie
boom. For the U.S. it also means continuing support from a
great friend. But just to throw in a little corollary issue here;
Australia’s real estate bubble is close to popping and the folks
are heavily in debt, but then who isn’t these days?
South Korea: I happened to glance at the Korea Times this week
and noticed the paper was singing the praises of Secretary of
Defense Rumsfeld for meeting with South Korea’s troops in Iraq.
I saw this on television when it happened and for all my criticism
of the secretary, it was one of those little moves that go a long
way. It’s also a reminder to the rest of us that South Korea is
actually #3 in forces in Iraq behind Britain with about 3,600. It
would behoove our president to mention this when he lists the
supporters of the coalition.
Israel: There should be little doubt where I stand on the Israeli-
Palestinian issue, but I have to pass along some information I
saw in Defense News. In the last four years of fighting between
the two through 9/15/04, Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic intelligence
arm) reports that 70% of Israelis killed were non-combatants,
including 101 minors. A Palestinian non-governmental agency
said 80% of its deaths were civilians and 560 of these were
minors. I saw a clip on NBC the other day of the Israeli captain
(since suspended) who put 15 bullets into an innocent Palestinian
girl and anyone seeing this had to be sickened. Whether Israel
and the U.S. like it or not, our armies are held to a higher
standard in today’s world. We have to be…but it’s tough at
times.
Canada: It received zero press in the U.S. but what a dumb
tragedy Canada suffered recently. The country took delivery of
four moth-balled submarines from Britain and one caught fire on
its way to Canada. One submariner died. I watched the story
unfold on the BBC and it’s all just so senseless. These subs are
clearly not seaworthy and it speaks volumes on the sad shape of
Canada’s military and all the potential consequences that holds
for the security of our entire region because of it. This is in no
way knocking the brave men and women serving Canada, rather
once again it’s a total failure of leadership.
Zimbabwe: Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was acquitted
of treason charges, but he faces a new trial next month. Long
ago Britain and the U.S. should have taken out Mugabe, two-
time StocksandNews “Dirtball of the Year.”
Random Musings
–Economist Robert Samuelson (Newsweek / Washington Post)
wrote of an issue I have to admit I never gave much thought to
concerning the census bureau’s annual figures on income and
poverty, used heavily by the Kerry campaign. Samuelson’s
explanation is brilliant in its simplicity.
“The census statistics are both better and worse than advertised.
They’re better because the middle class isn’t vanishing. Many
middle-class families achieved large income gains in the 1990s
and – despite the recession and halting recovery – have kept
those gains. They’re worse because the increase in poverty in
recent decades stems mainly from immigration. Until our
leaders acknowledge the connection between immigration and
poverty, we’ll be hamstrung in dealing with either.”
Samuelson goes on to add:
“True, the median household income has dropped since 1999 and
is up only slightly since 1990. That’s usually taken as an
indicator of what’s happened to a typical family. It isn’t. The
median income is the mid-point of incomes; half of households
are above, half below. The median household was once
imagined as a family of Mom, Dad and two kids. But ‘typical’
no longer exists. There are more singles, childless couples and
retirees. Smaller households tend to have lower incomes. They
drag down the overall median. So do more poor immigrant
households.”
Damn he’s good.
–As Republican and capitalist as I may seem most of the time, I
have major problems with much of President Bush’s “ownership
society” agenda. Economist Robert Kuttner commented in
Business Week that today our society “is built substantially on
social investment and social insurance. It’s certainly not built on
shifting all risks to the individual.” I believe in Social Security,
for example, as a truly great program and I am dead set against
the private accounts idea. But as I’ve said before, since no one
likes to see their actual benefits cut, freeze them every other year
for a spell, while also fiddling with the cost of living adjustments
to reflect the real world, as PIMCO’s Bill Gross wrote of the
other week. Freezing the COLA, coupled with a slight increase
in the retirement age, is all we need. Both parties are welcome to
contact me for more sage advice seeing as no one else has
thought of this plan.
–Jackson Diehl, in a Post op-ed, notes there is real evidence pro-
democracy and human rights groups are sprouting up in the
Middle East, which is both President Bush’s and the G-8’s
program. Again, and our leaders can’t stress this enough, it takes
time and as Diehl emphasizes it makes winning in Iraq all the
more important.
–Newt Gingrich wrote an op-ed in the L.A. Times pointing out
one of the great travesties in world affairs; the fact that Sudan
still has a seat on the UN Commission for Human Rights, this as
the government continues to fund the Darfur genocide.
–According to a survey for Military Times, enlisted men and
women favor President Bush 72-17. [Peter Feaver / Washington
Post]
–A Gallup International poll, attempting to gauge impressions of
G-8 nations, revealed that of 50,000 people in 60 countries 34%
dislike the U.S. while 40% have a positive opinion. 25% dislike
Russia and 31% have positive thoughts. But this was interesting.
Of all the European Union countries, Austria and Sweden have
the most negative image of Russia at 44 and 43 percent,
respectively. Czech Republic was 3rd at 42%. Outside Europe,
Egypt (41%) and Turkey (57%) have surprisingly high anti-
Russian feelings. But Russia is viewed positively among 70% of
Ukrainians! [Moscow Times]
–My friend Johnny Mac on John Kerry. “Is he going to cure
spinal cord paralysis before or after he captures bin Laden, gives
me health care, a job, a tax cut, trains the Iraqi army, brings
peace to the Gaza strip, disarms both North Korea and Iran,
gathers up all the loose nukes, brings our erstwhile allies on
board and gets me some cheap Canadian drugs? I mean, this guy
is truly amazing. Where has he been all these years?”
–At least nine died in Japan this week as the result of two suicide
pacts arranged over the Internet. Very sad. Lonely, disaffected
youth are drawn to this dispenser of poison.
–I have received quite a few comments from concerned mothers
regarding the rumors over the draft and I have yet to hear either
presidential candidate give you the correct response. Yes, we are
stretched terribly thin but we can get by with existing force levels
assuming an eventual drawdown in Iraq. But…if we suddenly
find ourselves in another theater of war, i.e., North Korea or Iran,
the United States is in deep, deep trouble. That’s a fact and it
would require a draft. I know the military leaders are against it
(but you know how I feel about them by now) and it’s political
suicide before Nov. 2nd, but planning should be taking place,
now, just in case. From what I observe, that means 80% of the
mothers reading this site will flee to Canada. I remind you that
StocksandNews is still accessible there.
–Here in the New York area, we are inundated with all kinds of
hokey 9/11-related stuff and recently this company has been
advertising commemorative coins “minted from silver recovered
from Ground Zero.” Well you or I know it’s all b.s., but an
awful lot of other folks fall for this crap so I was happy to see
that Attorney General Spitzer obtained a court order to suspend
sale of the coin, calling it a “fraud (and a) shameless attempt to
profit from a national tragedy.” The owners of the operation
should receive life in prison, where they can mint license plates.
–A Washington state teenager was billed $10 million for costs
associated with a forest fire started by his off-road vehicle. Talk
about entering adulthood in a hole.
–John Kerry said in the last debate that “We’re all God’s
children.” Not al Qaeda. They’re Satan’s.
–Since my motto is “wait 24 hours,” I won’t comment on the
Bill O’Reilly situation until the full facts are out.
–Lastly, I received a great story from Ken S. concerning rancher
Jerry McRoberts in Gurley, Nebraska. As reported by the
Omaha World-Herald, McRoberts has been raising yaks, the
official animal of StocksandNews. I liked the description of
them as being “hippie cows with dreadlocks,” but don’t let this
fool you. They remain among the more noble and intelligent
beasts, while remaining quite nutritious. For his part, McRoberts
is beginning to sell yak meat to local eateries for burgers, though
I’m worried about his crossbreeding in small numbers with Irish
black cattle. [No one knows their religion, after all.] But
nonetheless I’m now thinking I should head out to Gurley to
work with Jerry on establishing a chain of Yak Shaks. You all,
of course, would have first dibs on franchises so start scoping out
local property today.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $420
Oil, $54.93
Returns for the week 10/11-10/15
Dow Jones -1.2% [9933]
S&P 500 -1.2% [1108]
S&P MidCap -1.5%
Russell 2000 -1.1%
Nasdaq -0.4% [1911]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-10/15/04
Dow Jones -5.0%
S&P 500 -0.3%
S&P MidCap +1.6%
Russell 2000 +2.3%
Nasdaq -4.6%
Bulls 54.1
Bears 23.5 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate the support. Next time, your
editor takes a shot at predicting the election.
Brian Trumbore
