[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Iraq / Afghanistan
Part of my morning routine when I get to the office is to turn on
BBC News at 6:00 AM, broadcast over one of the local PBS
stations. No doubt, the BBC is criticized in conservative circles
for its leftist tilt but I’ve always been of the opinion that being
the proud possessor of half a brain I can separate the facts from
the propaganda. What the BBC does offer, for Americans, is
coverage of international events not seen on our major networks.
The main reason for flipping on the BBC these days, however, is
to see what they’re saying about events in Iraq. If the lead story
is Russia and Kyoto, that’s a great sign, and the past few days
Iraq has not been #1. In other words, there is hope.
I have been encouraged by the more aggressive attitude as
exhibited by the U.S. military and its Iraqi allies. You know I’ve
had major issues with the conduct of the war in the past, and I
still do, but there are some positive signs amidst the continuing
battle.
Granted, it’s not always easy to identify them. For example,
right after posting this column last week, the story broke of the
Reserve supply unit that refused to run a mission delivering fuel
for U.S. helicopters. I actually could have commented before my
official deadline but opted not to because I didn’t see it as being
that big a story. I was right. The shelf life was no more than 48
hours.
On the other hand, I found a few of the following comments
more distressing. In one AP story a Marine said “All we are
doing around here is getting blown up,” with the Marines
being particularly frustrated over the rules of engagement.
And there was a piece in Newsweek concerning security in the
Green Zone, a very worrisome matter after last week’s bombings
and my nightmare October surprise…an attack on a barracks
there. [As I go to print today there appears to have been a large
car bombing outside a base in Western Iraq.]
“An entire brigade of the First Cavalry Division is in charge of
defending the Green Zone, and individuals entering some
facilities can face three to six separate body frisks. But nobody
examined the bags of two men with Jordanian accents who
sipped cups of tea at the Green Zone Café before one of them
blew himself up. ‘The First Cavalry Division has done a piss-
poor job of securing the gates [of the Green Zone],’ says the U.S.
Army officer who witnessed the grisly aftermath of last week’s
attacks. ‘Even my translators complain they are not searched
thoroughly when they come in.’ If that doesn’t change soon, the
safest place in Baghdad is bound to be thought of as just another
hot zone.”
Plus there was the sickening abduction of Margaret Hassan,
director for CARE International. This is a great woman who has
been a huge supporter of the Iraqi people. Were she to be killed
it would be a most depressing event, worldwide, and with
political ramifications in the U.S.
But British Prime Minister Tony Blair is once again stepping up
big time. My fellow Americans, buy something from the U.K.
this week as a small show of appreciation. Between 1,000 and
2,000 British troops are being redeployed to Baghdad to help
with the heavy lifting. Blair is getting killed back home for the
move, but as a British official said, the dirty little secret
concerning the U.S. force of 140,000 in Iraq is “only a small
portion of these are fighting soldiers.” Britain is sending us its
finest, the Black Watch.
The criticism in Britain stems from the fact its forces are
generally known for exhibiting restraint to win over locals, as in
Basra, and there are concerns that under U.S. command they will
be forced to adopt more heavy-handed measures. For his part,
Blair and his cabinet have dismissed another charge; that being
the move was timed to help Bush get re-elected.
As for the views of the Iraqis themselves, the Washington Post
reported that an independent poll revealed the following. 45% of
Iraqis believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, only
41% believe it’s in the right one. Perhaps more disconcerting,
though far from unexpected, is the fact only 43% support the
current Iraqi regime. Moqtada al-Sadr, for instance, would win a
seat in the National Assembly if a vote were held today. Other
religious leaders would also emerge victorious. But the poll
revealed one encouraging sign; 2/3’s don’t believe civil war is
imminent. And so we’ve come full circle. I’ll keep repeating
this until proven otherwise…there is still hope.
And a word about Afghanistan. There can be only one
conclusion concerning the election here. It worked. But I read
with interest a piece by Katherine Mangu-Ward of the Weekly
Standard. It amazes many of us how the feminist movement in
the United States has totally dismissed the good that is going on
in Afghanistan regarding women. 4 million went to vote and
yes, while we are potentially decades from true equal rights, why
can’t the National Organization for Women admit this positive
first step? Ms. Mangu-Ward observed that the NOW web site
(now.org) hasn’t updated its “Women in Afghanistan” piece
since May 2002. [Nice work ethic.] I went on the site this
morning myself (a first for me, that’s for sure) and it still hadn’t
been. What a disgrace. Women get the vote in Afghanistan and
the feminists in America refuse to acknowledge it. Never let the
facts stand in the way of one’s agenda, I guess.
Wall Street
Third quarter earnings poured in this week and some big players
in the technology sector had good things to say, with
heavyweights such as IBM, Texas Instruments, SAP and
Microsoft speaking of an improving environment on the capital
spending front.
This year market mavens have been waiting for capital spending
to pick up the ball, taking over for an increasingly weary
consumer. Otherwise the economy could just roll over. Separate
surveys from ICI and Gartner show that PC shipments were up
between 10 and 12% for the quarter over the pace of a year
earlier as businesses finally upgrade and replace computers
purchased in the run-up to Y2K. Microsoft is certainly a
beneficiary here (though the company lowered expectations for
4th quarter revenues a bit), while IBM said infotech spending in
2005 should be in the 4-5% range; again, far from great but still
an improvement.
But there are a few good-sized macro issues to deal with. On top
of slowing growth in Asia in places like Japan, Thailand and
Singapore, China estimates its third quarter GDP was in the 9.1%
range. Of course this looks awesome until you realize it is
nonetheless a decline, albeit slight, from previous levels and
China, believe it or not, is moving closer to recession.
[Admittedly, I hold a minority opinion on this one.] Remember
one thing. It is generally accepted that China’s economy needs
to grow at a 7%+ pace just to ensure employment for workers
displaced by modernization; converting state-run operations to a
hard-edged capitalist one.
For now, though, still strong demand for energy from China is
the leading factor, among many, behind crude oil’s surge to yet
another record, a staggering $55 per barrel. Last weekend the
president of the Chicago Board of Trade said $75 wouldn’t
surprise him. And on the natural gas front, the 11/1 issue of
Business Week has a quote from T. Boone Pickens talking about
$10 natural gas. Then again, nat gas hit $8 on Friday so what’s
another $2 among friends? What it is, actually, is depressing. I,
for one, am responsible for the utilities on a good-sized
commercial property and I’m already having nightmares over
coming gas bills, let alone for my own home. Premium beer this
winter? I think not.
Of course heating oil also hit a new record high as the latest
inventory report revealed a larger than expected decline in
distillates, all of which is beginning to bite hard. European
nations are among those lowering growth forecasts; not a good
thing since the continent was basically just muddling along to
begin with.
As for housing, another pillar of the global economy, with each
passing week there are further signs of cracks in the foundation.
A U.K. study, for example, showed the largest average price
drop in 9 years for September as five interest rate hikes here are
beginning to negatively impact the environment.
But Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan still says not to
worry. In a discussion on consumer and household debt,
Greenspan sees no bubble, just “pockets of distress,” opining that
a “national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the
United States given its size and diversity.” I would argue that
while the chairman may technically be correct, he is missing the
broader point. Even a minimal drop or simply stagnant prices
over the next few years will have a huge impact on consumer
confidence. Our best investment of the past ten years could enter
a period of zero appreciation, at best, and we’ll all cut back on
spending. Now if Goldman Sachs is right with their statement
that housing is 10% overvalued and we see that kind of move
down, it virtually guarantees recession by my thinking.
Finally, I’ll have a thought or two on the election in a bit, but I
did find the following research from Wayne Hummer Asset
Management, via CNBC, to be quite telling and perhaps in a way
reassuring. It doesn’t matter whether the next administration is
Republican or Democrat, corporate profits rise equally under
both, about 6.5% annually, and over the long run, as we learned
in Stock Market 101, that’s what eventually drives share prices.
……No, really. I’m finished (for now). I’m not going to turn
around and bum you out (yet).
Street Bytes
–Despite the decent overall tone in earnings, it was another
sloppy week for stocks as the Dow Jones and S&P 500
declined for a third straight week, 1.8 and 1.1 percent,
respectively. The Dow, at 9757, is at its lowest level since
November 24. Nasdaq did eke out a gain, however, 4 points to
1915, thanks to some moves in the aforementioned tech leaders
along with strong reports from the likes of eBay and Google.
Regarding the latter, it’s first as a public company, Google shares
soared, finishing the week at $172. Remember that offering
price of $85? Yup, that’s a double in mere months. Of course
the fact Google continues to hide many details about its operation
is beside the point. More important, as I heard one respected
analyst say on Thursday, is the fact Google is heavily under-
owned by the major institutions and clearly they were scrambling
to buy into it. For its part, eBay hit a new all-time high before
selling off late Friday.
[The flip side of the sector was Amazon. It disappointed the
Street and was hammered. The company is now a mature one
with reduced expectations for future growth. That doesn’t make
it a bad outfit; investors just need to be realistic. The same thing
will one day happen to eBay and Google, but when that will be is
beyond my pay grade.]
*Also, check out the bull / bear readings below. The bull figure
has risen sharply and as Chartcraft, the source of the information,
notes “Historically, these levels have proved very negative for
equities.”
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 2.05% 2-yr. 2.51% 10-yr. 3.97% 30-yr. 4.76%
The long end of the yield curve fell anew with the 10-year
breaking the key 4% level. We wouldn’t be at 3.97% if bond
traders and investors didn’t think the economy could be in real
trouble due to soaring energy costs. Of course there is also the
feeling that the election is not going to be decided on November
2.
–New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is ratcheting up his
investigation into the insurance industry as the chairman of
Marsh & McLennan, Jeffrey Greenberg, son of AIG chairman
Maurice Greenberg, is to be the first high-level casualty. [A few
mid-level execs have already been charged and / or pled guilty.]
For its part, AIG is the focus of a criminal probe involving one of
its insurance products and its amazing ability to play games with
a company’s earnings.
Just to reiterate for those not following the broader scandal too
closely; it’s all about bid-rigging, contingent commissions to
brokers and the probability that both corporations and individuals
were paying higher premiums than they otherwise should have.
One of the huge issues for Marsh is maintaining its bank credit
lines. Obviously, when fraud charges are bandied about a
company is in violation of bank covenants but thus far Marsh is
catching a break from its lenders. [Others in this probe, like
AIG, face similar issues.]
And no doubt Marsh shareholders, in particular, have been
hammered. No one likes to see this. But Gretchen Morgenson
had a story for the New York Times wherein she reported on the
percentage of Marsh stock held in employee 401 (K) plans.
Including its subsidiaries such as Putnam and Hewitt Associates,
it’s generally in the 40-60% range. Chalk it up to lessons not
learned, though Morgenson intimates that some administrators of
the plan may not have been adhering to their fiduciary
responsibilities.
Finally, I get a kick out of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial
board. Hey, I’m a free market disciple but, almost without fail,
each time Eliot Spitzer launches a new investigation the Journal
puts out an editorial defending the defenseless. When the Bubble
broke in 2000, the paper did essentially the same thing with some
of the telecoms that raped shareholders. I love the Journal, and
no doubt Spitzer’s motives aren’t always as pure as the driven
snow, but the editorial page sometimes resembles a bad cartoon.
–Noted columnist / author James Stewart, appearing in the
Journal, calls the insurance scandal “a classic antitrust case.”
–German business software giant SAP recorded super results for
the quarter with revenues up 13%. I have to admit I was
surprised to learn SAP is capturing about 56% of the worldwide
market for its space and is now up to 38% in the U.S. versus
rivals such as Oracle and PeopleSoft. And if you’re looking for
an excuse to be a bull on the tech sector, SAP’s North American
operation recorded its highest third quarter ever, besting 1998.
Then again, maybe the results are simply a result of superior
management. Some of SAP’s competitors are clearly lacking in
same.
–Speaking of PeopleSoft, which reported flat revenues for Q3
(though generally better than expectations), ousted CEO Craig
Conway only received $18 million in severance. I would have
thought it’d be much higher; at least into the A-Rod, $25 million
category.
–The average net worth (ex- home and car loan) of Hispanic
households in America is $7,932 and $5,988 for African-
Americans, big declines over 1999 in each case as both groups
have significantly fewer bank accounts and financial assets than
white households, which have an average net worth of $88,651
(up from ’99). [Wall Street Journal]
–Qwest Communications settled an SEC investigation alleging
“massive” accounting fraud by agreeing to fork over $250
million, the 2nd-largest fine for a non-financial company behind
WorldCom’s $750 million. Qwest booked $3.8 billion in fake
revenue over a 3-year period. Up to 21 current or former
executives are either facing criminal prosecution, pled guilty, or
have received notices they should start packing clean underwear.
–AT&T’s revenue for the quarter fell another 12%.
–But sibling Lucent is back; 5 straight quarterly profits with
revenues up 19% from a year earlier. I hate to bring up a painful
reminder, though, but since its peak during the telecom bubble,
Lucent has gone from 157,000 employees to about 32,000 today.
Revenues are still just 1/3rd peak level and retirees continue to
see their cherished benefits diced and sliced like in a bad hacker
flick. And its share price remains mired below $4 despite the
turnaround because the growth rate from here will be in the mid-
single digits. [The front lawn looks pretty good, however.]
–Internet-related theft cost business and consumers $14 billion
last year. [Gartner / Ferris Research…USA Today]
–Inflation Update: Tuition at 4-year public colleges was up 11%
this year; private schools up 6%.
–New York Times columnist William Safire, in discussing the
UN oil-for-food scandal, brought up the case of UBS, fined $100
million earlier this year for sending cash to countries under
sanction like Cuba, Libya and Iran. Sources now tell Safire that
$783 million in $100 bills has been recovered thus far in Iraq,
though it’s not clear what, if any, direct link UBS may have to
this.
–Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince has been in the top slot just one
year since inheriting the position from Sandy Weill, but this
week Prince fired 3 senior executives, including Vice Chairman
Sir Deryck Maughan, for their roles in the scandal that brought
down the Japanese operation. Another was Thomas Jones,
former head of investment management. Separately, Jones is
under investigation by the SEC for a squirrelly arrangement
between Citi mutual funds and its transfer agent. Facts are
sketchy but I’m imagining it isn’t good, knowing what I know of
this business.
–30 Canadian Internet pharmacies are refusing to accept bulk
orders from the U.S. due to concerns over supply and rising
prices for Canadians themselves.
–According to a study conducted by ComPsych, 40% of people
who don’t get flu shots miss some time at work due to the flu,
compared with 20% who receive the shot. [Wall Street Journal]
–McDonald’s same-store sales were up again in the third
quarter, while Wendy’s were down as the former is beginning to
win the “quality of food” contest once always Wendy’s domain.
–Here’s a sign of the coming apocalypse. The Journal had a
piece on the latest craze among day traders, playing the German
stock market through its Dow equivalent, the DAX index.
‘Trader George’ pointed out that the following statement by one
25-year-old brings back memories of the Bubble. Mark Oryhon
teaches “nifty DAX-trading tips, including the ‘opening range
reversal fake-out breakout strategy.’” I hope he at least cleans
his room so his mother doesn’t have to.
–I pay a handsome sum of money to Chartcraft for the bull / bear
readings you see down below so I feel like it’s about time I
passed on some other tidbits from their reports. John Bollinger is
a strategist junkies are familiar with and one of my own
favorites. He had a quote from Charles Babson, “Business
Barometers for Profits – Security – Income,” circa 1958.
“I know of no method to help clients get rich quickly. One must
take as much time to create a fortune as it takes a baby to mature
into a twenty-one-year-old boy, or a tree to grow from an acorn.
Everything worthwhile takes time. This applies especially to
making money. Those who plant the right investment seeds, let
us take care of the young ‘stock,’ and have the patience and
courage to wait should leave their offspring independent
financially. Incidentally, let me add that when people ask my
grandchildren what I sell, they reply ‘Grampa sells patience and
courage.’”
OK, my broker / financial planner friends. Now make a plaque
out of this, hang it on your office wall, and point it out to your
clients and prospects every chance you have.
–Mattel reported that domestic sales of Barbie dropped 26% in
the quarter, year over year, and 13% worldwide. The rival Bratz
doll is winning out, picking up market share while partying down
with GI Joe.
–A poll of financial advisors for Investment News reveals that
96% say there are more scandals to be discovered in their
industry. [This was tabulated before Spitzer’s latest
investigation.]
–My portfolio: Well I said I’d describe as much as possible
what I own these days, recognizing that I do not give out
individual names except in the case of country funds.
So currently I hold 11 stocks, equaling roughly 30% of my
overall financial assets. I sold my smallest energy position
Friday (1%) because the company missed badly on earnings. [I
did still make 50% on this one.] That leaves me with just one
other pure energy play, 5% of my holdings. I also own an Aussie
natural resources giant (part oil), 3%, the Singapore Fund, 4%, a
telecom play in Portugal, 1%, three very low-priced software
issues totaling about 6%, a highly speculative carbon fiber play,
2%, an Internet telephony play, 1% (down from 2% thanks to
depreciation), a pharmaceutical company, 2% and not one in the
news for the wrong reasons recently, and lastly, my newest deal
as of a few weeks ago, a play on broadband over power lines
which is roughly 5% but I’ve already been trading in and out of
it, going against my normal long term strategy. It’s not for
the faint of heart….and I could be out of it entirely at any
moment.
All in all a real mishmash…and thus the reason for the other
70% remaining in cash, all $10s and $20s and secured in a vault
somewhere in the Catskill Mountains.
Foreign Affairs
Russia: President Vladimir Putin unequivocally endorsed
President Bush’s re-election bid. Why, when heads of state
normally stay out of such matters? Because Bush has largely left
Putin alone on the issue of Chechnya. Putin told an audience:
“Any objective observer understands that attacks by international
terrorist organizations in Iraq, in today’s circumstances, are
aimed not so much at the international coalition forces as at
President Bush personally.
“International terrorism has as its goal the inflicting of the
biggest possible damage on President Bush, preventing him from
being re-elected to a second term. If they achieve their goal, then
that will give international terrorism a new impulse and extra
power.” [Moscow Times]
Of course it’s not as if Putin is giving the U.S. any support in
Iraq, let alone the issue of Iran and its nuclear weapons program.
On the energy front, the Kremlin continues with its move to
consolidate all oil holdings under its direct control, or through
proxies, as it is close to selling Yukos’ key asset to a state-owned
company at a low-ball figure, in return for tribute, no doubt. I
have written extensively on such interference in the free market
and foreign policy expert Artem Agoulnik had a piece in the
Washington Post addressing one of my favorite topics, Gazprom,
and how coupled with other near monopolies Russia is rapidly
becoming the new OPEC in terms of its ability to influence
energy prices worldwide merely by playing with the valves. In
the case of Gazprom and its lesser brethren, it continually needs
to be pointed out that Russia controls 28% of global natural gas
reserves.
Belarus: Directly related to the above is this nation’s role in
helping Putin recreate the Soviet empire. President Alexander
Lukashenko held a parliamentary election in which his party won
all 107 seats, while Belarussians supposedly voted by a huge
margin to approve a referendum allowing Lukashenko to be de
facto president for life. Putin endorsed it. Of course the whole
vote was a sham and later a leading independent journalist was
murdered.
Ukraine: And then we have this place, a Russian satellite in the
eyes of some. Senator John McCain warned in a Washington
Post op-ed that there will be another stolen vote on October 31
when Ukrainians go to the polls to elect a new president. Putin
will just happen to be in the country three days before, according
to the Moscow Times, and while there is a World War II
anniversary at this time (Kiev’s liberation from the Nazis in
1944), it clearly is more a visit to shore up the Kremlin’s hand-
picked candidate to succeed President Leonid Kuchma. [Imagine
Tony Blair giving speeches the final weekend of the U.S.
campaign in Florida and Pennsylvania.]
Israel: There is no doubt many in Israel are on edge over two
related, internal issues. First, how do you evict 7,000 settlers
from Gaza (and some from the West Bank), as Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon wants to do by the end of 2005, without inciting a
civil war and, second, how does Sharon avoid becoming the
target of an assassination attempt by Israeli extremists, a la
Yitzhak Rabin in 1995? Former Prime Minister Shimon Peres,
always viewed as a voice of reason, is one warning of a take out
of Sharon.
Iran: Playing its hand brilliantly, like North Korea, the mullahs
continue to stall for time as they rejected Europe’s latest
entreaties to suspend the nation’s uranium enrichment program.
A showdown looms with the International Atomic Energy
Agency next month, at which point Iran will stretch out the
negotiating process even further. This is where a disputed
election in the U.S. can have a very negative impact if America’s
leadership is in question. It also brings us closer to the day Israel
is forced to act unilaterally due to the West’s inability to rein in
the Islamo-Fascists.
North Korea: Pyongyang, eagerly awaiting the U.S. election
result, says it is interested in resuming 6-party talks…wink wink.
But on a different matter, former CIA Director George Tenet
says North Korea is close to weaponizing bio warfare agents and
South Korean agents report that 100 tons of a potentially lethal
chemical, used in some agricultural applications but capable of
being turned into sarin, has been exported to North Korea via
China. [Scott Jones / Defense News]
China / Taiwan: Responsible foreign policy strategists continue
to ignore the issue of Taiwan. This week Fareed Zakaria
(Newsweek / Washington Post) had a story on the growing threat
Asia, and specifically China, pose to the U.S., focusing on the
issue of competitiveness. But it was another case, as in the
presidential debates, where there wasn’t a word about the coming
conflict over Taiwan. So here’s my opinion, one I assume has
been thought of by those in positions of power in Washington.
Should we have a disputed election, it’s the perfect time for
China to take out Taiwan. But no one, least of all the U.S.,
would raise a finger in opposition and within months it would be
business as usual. It would also be one of the great tragedies in
the history of mankind, let alone the fact the U.S. wouldn’t be
able to speak of spreading freedom across the Middle East while
letting an existing democracy fall.
Turkey: German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer gave an
enlightened response to a BBC interviewer on the issue of
Turkey joining the European Union. Fischer stressed the
strategic importance.
“To modernize an Islamic country based on the shared values of
Europe would be almost a D-Day for Europe in the war on terror.
It would be the greatest positive challenge for these totalitarian
and terrorist ideas.”
Brazil: The government agreed to inspections at a controversial
nuclear site but in this instance it’s not so much about Brazil’s
getting into the nuclear weapons game but rather the country has
a history of passing on enriched uranium to some bad players,
such as Libya. Brazil doesn’t want any interference in what it
deems its internal affairs but the West is rightly concerned that in
this day and age the uranium could end up in the hands of
terrorists.
Burma: The military leaders in this corrupt, drug-addled nation
booted out the moderate prime minister, a lone voice of reason,
accusing him of skimming cash. Everyone here is probably on
the take in one form or another but the move was a blow for
those hoping democracy would one day take root and the
military was clearly just consolidating its power. Former Nobel
Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house
arrest here.
Random Musings
–The Election: The last few polls have been amazing, perhaps
best exemplified by 3 major ones on President Bush’s job
approval. The New York Times / CBS survey has it at 44%, the
Washington Post / ABC one scores it 54% and the Wall Street
Journal / NBC poll splits the uprights at 49%. The consensus
across the nation is either you “hate” Bush or you “don’t trust”
Kerry; not exactly healthy sentiments.
This was the week we also all reached the same conclusion – we
are headed towards Election 2000, Part II; another litigious affair
though this time we also have a full plate of critical foreign
policy and homeland security issues to deal with. There have to
be more than a few bad players licking their chops and I’m not
just talking attorneys for the Republican and Democratic parties.
But as to the election result, I’m just going to take a stab at it like
everyone else…and I would urge those displeased with my pick
not to take it too seriously.
I’m voting for President Bush, but I predict John Kerry will
emerge victorious, 50-49 percent and with a 276-262 electoral
vote margin. I’ve never seen as many weak-kneed Bush
supporters (such as myself) as we have today and at the same
time I’m just guessing that a majority of the record new
registrants go for Kerry, if they show up in the first place. The
senator is one miserable candidate, but the president has made
more than his share of mistakes. Just my opinion.
Regardless of who emerges victorious, though, understand this.
Why anyone would want the job, at this time, is beyond me
because we face both a fiscal and foreign policy train wreck. A
dollar crisis looms while the aforementioned North Korea and
Iran must be confronted immediately, if it’s not already too late.
Ironically, assuming Iraq’s elections go off in January or
February, this could turn into the real bright spot.
Finally, like all of you, I pray there is no negative surprise over
the coming days.
–In the five elections, 1984-2000, Republicans captured the
same 9-12 percent of the African-American vote regardless of
the candidate.
–All this early voting disturbs me. Granted, almost everyone
should have made up their mind by now, but the process is rife
with nefarious possibilities.
–The London Times had an interesting piece concerning the
South Dakota senate race, of all things. I was in the state a few
weeks before the 2002 contest between Democratic Senator Tim
Johnson and Republican John Thune, a race decided by just 524
votes as Thune went down to defeat thanks to fraud on the Pine
Ridge Indian Reservation. [My opinion, as well as that of
others.] I mean to tell you, dead Indians were streaming to the
polls that year.
But as the Times reports, this year in the Thune vs. Tom Daschle
match ranchers could go strongly for Thune due to the fact that
in 1999 the U.S. government placed the vile, disease-ridden
prairie dog under the protection of the Endangered Species Act.
[Prairie dogs being vital to the diet of the doomed black ferret.]
Well, the rodent population exploded and the ranchers were not
allowed to poison the prairie dogs on federal land. Daschle is
trying to make amends but it may be too late to sway them. By
the way, I’ve seen a fair amount of Thune and as much as I don’t
like Daschle, Thune is an empty suit.
Back to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, where I was scared
for my life once while doing some sightseeing, the Washington
Post ran an obligatory election year piece on the plight of the
people here. In case you haven’t figured it out over the years, I
understand the problems faced by Native Americans but I’m not
always sympathetic. While there is no doubt the U.S.
government has not participated in the burden sharing as much as
some would have it, vast sums are nonetheless filtered into Indian
hands and much of this ends up in the pockets of the tribal chiefs,
with those most in need never seeing a red cent.
–The following is from U.S. News & World Report.
“Intelligence vets are still musing over Michale Kostiw, whose
reported shoplifting forced his withdrawal this month as the
CIA’s prospective executive director. But what dismays the
spooks most isn’t the ethics or the propriety of the case – it’s that
Kostiw had served as a case officer for 10 years and still couldn’t
manage to shoplift a package of bacon without getting caught in
a Northern Virginia market. Says one old spy: ‘It’s a perfect
metaphor for the sorry state of the CIA.’”
–No doubt, the problem we are having in America delivering
limited flu vaccines is embarrassing. But for some to then
blame President Bush, directly, is absurd. However, it’s also
time for my annual healthcare tip…courtesy of my mother,
Nurse Vicki, R.N.
“Wash your hands!”
And don’t go to your mouth unless it’s cold, you’re pitching in
the World Series and the umpires allow it.
–I guess I’ll say a few words about the Bill O’Reilly saga even
though we still don’t have all the facts. I watch him a fair
amount, but just for the first 20 minutes to see what he thinks is
important. I long grew tired of seeing the same old guests; Dick
Morris, Newt Gingrich and Tony Snow, for example.
I’ve also labeled O’Reilly a fraud on more than one occasion,
most recently about American casualties in Iraq (WIR 9/18/04).
As columnist Richard Cohen wrote this week, after a spectacular
run O’Reilly is “an old goat drunk with power.”
What cracks me up is simply how he views the world as
revolving around Planet Factor. Rare is the individual who can
pull it off – Trump, more or less thus far, might be an exception.
And it’s been a hoot watching O’Reilly’s frustration that Senator
Kerry won’t appear on the program. “This isn’t personal,” Bill
reassures us. “We just want to keep you posted.” Right. Of
course these days I wouldn’t be caught dead on his show if I
were a politician. Or at least if I appeared in the studio I
certainly wouldn’t touch the phones.
As for his accuser, Andrea Mackris, there is no doubt in my mind
she returned to Fox to win cash and prizes off of O’Reilly’s
dirtball tendencies. Clearly, the two were made for each other
before Ms. Mackris saw dollar signs. At the same time I feel for
Bill’s wife and kids.
–Yes, fame and fortune are not always what it’s cranked up to be
…not that I know from personal experience. One fellow who is
going to have a real tough time in 2005 is the Yankees’ Alex
Rodriguez. He’s a decent enough guy, but as he proved again
this season, and with another team, he is not a “difference
maker” and certainly not worth $25 million per.
–I don’t watch “Hannity & Colmes” much since after 9:00 PM
ET it’s time to turn on a sporting event in my world. But I did
see a segment with Dr. James Dobson and it was funny that I
then received a note from a like-minded friend, Scott P., down in
Florida. Dobson had a plausible scenario that gave the two of us
nightmares. Kerry is elected and selects Hillary to be Chief
Justice the first opportunity he gets, Rehnquist himself probably
the first likely member of the bench to leave. As Scott noted,
“Be afraid…be very afraid.”
–HBO’s “Real Sports” had a devastating report on the camel
jockeys of the United Arab Emirates. We’re talking real slave
labor camps with kids as young as 3-years-old, taken from their
families in nations such as Pakistan and Bangladesh. They’re
starved to keep their weight down for racing at the princes’
pleasure.
–Poor Japan. A record 8 typhoons this year including this
week’s, the deadliest in decades with at least 65 victims. And
can there be just a little safety reform with China’s mines?
Another explosion killed at least 150. That’s why this place in
many respects is still a ‘developing nation.’
–India’s most notorious bandit, Veerappan, was killed after 30
years of mayhem. Not only did he murder more than a handful
of folks, including politicians, over the years, but Veerappan and
his gang were also responsible for the slaughter of some 2,000
elephants for the ivory. So while the peasants loved him because
to them he was a modern day Robin Hood, I wish a herd of
elephants had crushed the guy.
–On a less violent note, ABC has elected not to continue
broadcasting the Miss America pageant. This past broadcast had
the lowest ratings in the 50 years it’s been on television, this
despite the ladies prancing about in sexier swimwear.
But I’m thinking Fox could pick up the rights and give the MC
position to Bill O’Reilly. You know, go back to asking a lot of
personal questions. “OK, Miss Nevada, pretend we’re together
in the Caribbean….” Plus he looks a little like Bert Parks.
–Denver Nuggets basketball star Carmelo Anthony was arrested
at Denver International Airport for having a small amount of
marijuana in his backpack. Anthony claimed a friend put it there
and this guy admitted he had, or so the story goes as of this
writing. But the larger significance of the episode is it represents
the first time in history that someone has answered the question
“Did you pack your own bags?” in the negative. “Ah, no. I
didn’t.”
–I love the idea of a Red Sox – Cardinals World Series. It brings
back fond memories of my youth and the last time these two got
together. I’d also like to thank St. Louis and Houston for
finishing their Game 7 contest at 11:15 PM ET, thus allowing
some of us to finally get a little sleep. I’ll never forget this
gesture, guys.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $425
Oil, $55.17
Returns for the week 10/18-10/22
Dow Jones -1.8% [9757]
S&P 500 -1.1% [1095]
S&P MidCap +0.3%
Russell 2000 -0.3%
Nasdaq +0.2% [1915]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-10/22/04
Dow Jones -6.7%
S&P 500 -1.5%
S&P MidCap +1.9%
Russell 2000 +2.0%
Nasdaq -4.4%
Bulls 58.9
Bears 22.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate the support.
Brian Trumbore
