[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
A Second Term
Congratulations to President George W. Bush and to the
American people, at least a majority of whom sent a message to
the rest of the world that our nation will not give in to the
merchants of terror.
President Bush claimed he now has a mandate and while a 3%
margin of victory isn’t a landslide, when you couple the 51%
tally (above the 50 mark for the first time since 1988) together
with the strong Republican majorities in both houses of
Congress, you can hardly argue otherwise.
But while I personally thought the election was all about national
security and the war on terror, I was struck by the fact 22%
believed moral values trumped both the war and the economy as
being the paramount issue. The 22% dovetails somewhat with
the 25% in Ohio who describe themselves as Evangelical
Christians. I have to admit that on many issues at the top of the
list for this group, I fall into a more moderate category. But you
have to understand there’s a reason why I dance around some of
these when it comes to this site. I just don’t think it’s appropriate
in most instances. Whether it’s stem cell research, abortion, gay
rights, guns or school prayer, I’ve stated, or hinted, where I
generally stand but that’s as far as I’m going. It’s best for both
of us.
Regardless, President Bush now has an opportunity to leave his
mark on world history, not just on our republic. Bush knows the
challenges are great and that as Charles Krauthammer noted, he
has to understand inertia is not an option.
Any regular reader shouldn’t be surprised I’ve identified a slew
of hot spots, most of which can not wait another year for
resolution.
In Iraq, many of us hope the final battle for Fallujah is under
way. The short-term human costs may be substantial, and I’m
sensitive to this, but look what it has cost us in the way of human
treasure by not getting the job done sooner. We must set the
stage for elections early next year or the war has been a failure.
The nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea must be stopped,
soon. President Bush is fortunate these two were not more of an
issue during the campaign. There is zero good to say about the
direction thus far.
The Israeli / Palestinian conflict will come to a head in 2005.
Prime Minister Sharon will face an angry minority, dead set
against his withdrawal plans, while the world waits to see if the
Palestinian people opt for peace or terror in the post-Arafat era.
The U.S. must be ready to aggressively act as arbiter, while
Israel will also cast a wary eye on Tehran.
The dismantlement of al Qaeda must continue apace, but
President Bush needs help from every nation in this regard.
When appropriate we need to tone down the rhetoric for the sake
of improved relations, if for no other reason than to ensure we
are sharing intelligence.
President Karzai of Afghanistan needs our full support so that
democracy can take root.
The White House must let Russian President Vladimir Putin
know in no uncertain terms that a recreation of the Soviet Empire
is not acceptable. But here European leaders must also carry a
share of the load. Watch Ukraine, November 21, for a strong
hint on the future direction of U.S. – Russian relations.
The White House must make it clear to China that we will not
accept an invasion of Taiwan and we must rapidly proceed to
supply Taiwan with the defensive weapons we are obligated to
by longstanding agreement.
And the U.S. must begin a new initiative in Latin America before
this continent slides into an abyss; offering haven to all terrorists
who would then freely stream across our porous southern border,
if they aren’t already doing so. It’s a full plate and the above is
just for starters.
Domestically, the president needs to move on reforms for Social
Security and healthcare, while the aging, and sickly, Supreme
Court has now become a huge issue guaranteed to capture a
lion’s share of the television news coverage over the coming
years. Bush has also offered up that a pet project of his will be a
systematic overhaul of the tax code, any form of which must
include the elimination of the onerous alternative minimum tax;
all the while being cognizant of the fact we are facing a fiscal
train wreck unless virtually everything, both foreign and
domestic, falls into place perfectly.
But most importantly, President Bush must indeed spend some of
his political capital, as he himself said at his press conference on
Thursday, though I hope it’s for the more big picture issues of
our time, the ones that without a successful resolution our
national security is in danger. There is much that can be
accomplished in the next four years and no one should be
surprised at the speed of change once set in motion.
Grant the president the support he deserves in the war on terror.
Fight him domestically, if you disagree. But all the while pray
for those on the front lines, keeping America safe. There is yet
reason for hope and still much to fear.
Wall Street
With the major equity averages at multi-month or multi-year
highs on the heels of a second straight 3% return week, it’s pretty
obvious investors are happy with the reelection of President
Bush. Aside from the fact everyone is relieved the election was
decided in short order, the president”s 2nd term agenda is
expected to produce more investor / business friendly reforms,
particularly with regards to the tax code, Social Security and tort
reform (including limiting asbestos claims). Throw in an energy
bill that encourages capital spending and what’s not to like?
Even the employment picture took a distinct turn up with
Friday’s solid 337,000 job gain for the month of October.
But before commenting further on the Bush agenda, let’s look at
the here and now. Productivity growth is falling, just 1.9% in the
third quarter, which means that labor costs could eventually rise
at a more worrisome pace. The good thing is falling productivity
could translate into more jobs down the road. But overall I still
see zero real inflation.
Now you might be thinking, hey, Mr. Editor, didn’t you talk the
other day about a 21% hike in your company’s health insurance
premium for 2005, and isn’t oil still basically at $50 and aren’t
heating costs going to be astronomic this winter? Right on all
accounts, but until the government decides to readjust its data to
reflect the real world, as PIMCO’s Bill Gross has called for, you
and I have to deal with the facts as given us and, first and
foremost, until there is real evidence of pricing power, wherein
companies feel comfortable in passing along the higher costs for
raw materials, I can’t raise bloody hell on inflation.
On a different level, Americans continue to spend more than they
earn, witness the September data on personal income (+0.2%)
and spending (+0.6%). In other words, not only is the savings
rate now basically zero, we’re going further into debt.
Of course it’s not just the consumer that’s in hock, it’s also the
U.S. government. Separate the federal budget deficit from the
federal debt for a moment. There is an urgent reason why some
think it’s imperative that we reduce the budget deficit from its
current $413 billion level. Each year we’re in the red just tacks
on more to the federal debt, currently $7.4 trillion, or almost 70%
of GDP. [Years ago it was closer to 30%, at a time Japan’s was
130% and you know what happened to its economy for 10+
years…recession and stagnation.]
So when you hear figures of $5 trillion in deficits over the next
10 years if President Bush enacts his tax plan and other
measures, depending on how fast the economy is growing you
could be talking $12 trillion in overall debt, let alone obligations
due on various entitlement programs, which by some measures is
another $38 trillion.
If in this second Bush term, however, the economy grows at a 3-
4% clip and the president whips out the veto pen now and then,
at least the budget deficit could be halved. But, no one can tell
you for certain the costs of the war, homeland security, etc., let
alone some of the reform proposals the administration may come
up with.
If I’ve confused you it’s kind of on purpose. Five- and ten-year
projections are futile, especially in this volatile world of today,
but the real bottom line is much of our debt is financed by
foreigners and we have to hope they continue to buy our bonds.
Finally, I’ll cover some more micro issues in a second but as
discussed up above, this world is still fraught with danger. It’s
going to be awful tough for any American president over the next
few years to run the table and solve the larger issues without
financial dislocation.
But no doubt, after a punk year of returns on our investments,
we’re certainly entitled to some froth and merriment. Just make
sure you have a cash cushion and stay away from taking on
further debt. You’ll thank me later.
Street Bytes
It was just a super week all around, unless you were long bonds
on Friday, and the S&P 500 finished the week with a 9-session
winning streak, closing at 1166, a mark not attained since March
2002. Both the Dow Jones, 10387, and Nasdaq, 2038, are at
their highest levels since the spring. And when you look at the
year to date returns below, the situation is rapidly improving with
the S&P now up about 6% on a total return basis, while the
Russell 2000 small cap index is up 8.5%.
Yes, the lifting of uncertainty concerning the election and the
Bush agenda for a second term were big positives, with sectors
such as healthcare, energy and defense stocks, supposed
beneficiaries of a Bush second term, helping to lead the way.
Even Dell looks like it’s beginning to break out of a long funk,
along with other big cap tech issues.
This year I forecast that the major averages would finish down 9
to 12 percent and today that looks too pessimistic, but I’m not
going to beat myself up when it comes to Nasdaq because it
came within 8 points of my projected bottom, 1760, just a few
months ago…at which point I said the major damage had clearly
been done.
And, let’s face it, the November – April period historically has
been an outstanding one for stocks. If you need further proof,
check out my current “Wall Street History” piece.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 2.24% 2-yr. 2.77% 10-yr. 4.18% 30-yr. 4.90%
Rates soared Friday on the employment report. The Federal
Reserve meets this Wednesday and again on December 14 and
the feeling now is that the Fed will raise interest rates a further ¼
point at each. But long-term rates are still at historical lows and
you’re not going to see me go crazy if rates continue to rise, at
least not until we get closer to 5% on the 10-year. At that level it
would definitely have an adverse impact on home sales.
–The price of crude settled below $50 for the first time in six
weeks, closing at $49.61. But before you get too giddy here,
understand it was below $42 in July, which was a then record
high. In other words, we’re still at very worrisome levels. One
thing that has helped, though, is the continuing improvement on
the inventory front. I’ve cautioned since day one not to put too
much stock in these numbers, week to week, but it certainly is
better to have a favorable trend than an unfavorable one.
–Manufacturing in Europe is at its slowest pace in 10 months,
while German unemployment is now at 10.7%, and far higher in
the old East Germany.
–Back on 10/9/04 in this space, I referred to a piece in Barron’s
that in my opinion offered up some “incredibly stupid advice”
concerning Merck following the company’s pulling of its Vioxx
painkiller drug amidst health concerns. Barron’s said the shares
looked poised “for a big rebound.” I, instead, said stay away.
The stock had already fallen from about $46 in September to $31
in early October but I cautioned the lawsuits would be huge and
an ongoing problem.
So this week the Wall Street Journal reported on internal
documents and e-mails that revealed Merck was concerned about
the dangers of Vioxx years ago, back in the 1990s, and contrary
to statements made in September by CEO Raymond Gilmartin.
Basically, there was a vast cover-up in the marketing of the drug.
Then yesterday another story hit in the medical journal Lancet,
noting studies done four years ago also addressed the severe
risks. Merck finished the week at $26.
–Related to the above, shares in Pfizer took a quick hit on
Thursday, before recovering, on a Canadian report that its own
painkiller, Celebrex, contributed to the deaths of at least 14
people. The company disputed the claim.
–Four former Merrill Lynch investment bankers and one Enron
official were convicted of accounting fraud and aiding Enron’s
attempt to inflate earnings in the now infamous barge deal. This
is a good thing.
–The Yukos saga just never ends. For starters, consider this.
Former chairman Mikhail Khodorkovsky has now been in prison
for over a year on charges of fraud and tax evasion. This week
the Kremlin hiked the total tax liability that the energy giant is
supposedly responsible for to over $17 billion. [Roughly $14.2
billion for Yukos, the corporate entity, and another $3.3 billion
for its largest production unit.] Yukos officials said bankruptcy
appears to be the only solution though a final decision would not
be made until December.
–A brother-sister team became the first to be convicted on felony
spam charges with the jury recommending the brother be
sentenced to 9 years. Hopefully it sticks.
–I’ve been doing my Christmas shopping earlier than normal this
time and was in Sharper Image the other day to buy some poker-
related stuff. All three items I wanted were sold out, just to give
you an idea on the impact of the poker craze. Separately, don’t
forget the Shark Euro Pro handheld vacuum, available at all Bed,
Bath & Beyond outlets.
–The Center for Disease Control has completed a study of the
effect our obese population has on the airline industry. For
example, the extra weight has cost airlines $275 million in
forcing the carriers to burn 350 million more gallons of fuel due
to the excess weight. The extra fuel burned also had a negative
impact on the environment, as an estimated 3.8 million extra tons
of carbon dioxide were released into the atmosphere. [AP]
–But speaking of the airlines, one of the great business stories of
the past decade is Ireland-based Ryanair, which despite its own
fuel issues still managed a 15% increase in its fiscal 2nd quarter
net income. Revenues were up 19% and its 475 daily flights are
at 90% capacity. But what caught my eye is the fact 14% of its
total revenue is from selling food and drinks onboard. Let’s see,
60-minute flight, 3 beers……….
–The bloom is off Google, at least for a week. Thanks to a
downgrade and concern insiders will soon be unloading their
shares on the unwary, the stock fell to $169 from the $199.95
record high.
–My portfolio: Nothing more frustrating than a great week
overall in the market and seeing most of your own issues
underperform. But there’s always a next time. I remain roughly
30% equities and will have far more on my market outlook next
time. And at least now I’m earning something on the cash.
Foreign Affairs
Israel: As I go to post, it is impossible to know what will happen
inside the Palestinian Authority following the death of Yassir
Arafat, assuming the terrorist kicks the bucket in due course. It
is a tremendous opportunity for those desiring peace in the
region but it’s up to the Palestinian people and, more
specifically, Hamas. Will the terrorists stand in the way of the
moderates who would extend an olive branch to Israel in
recognizing both sides have suffered enough?
I also hate to keep bringing up a fact of any peace process in
these parts, that being final negotiations must include more than
the four West Bank settlements, consisting of a bunch of
squatters, that Israeli Prime Minister Sharon is currently slated to
dismantle. [Israel has already said it would give up Gaza.] And
if you then think that tens of thousands of Israelis would
willingly leave their homes as part of a redrawing of the borders,
you’re nuts.
Iraq: Overshadowed by the election, the situation here obviously
didn’t get any better. The Brits’ Black Watch troops, recently
reassembled close to Baghdad to help support the U.S., lost three
in a suicide attack, bringing the British death toll in the Iraq War
to 73. Meanwhile, 11 airport employees were killed in an attack
at the entrance to Baghdad Airport and there were at least 5 more
beheadings as well as another videotape involving hostage Mary
Hassan of CARE. These were just some of the more high-profile
incidents.
As Eric Schmitt reported in the Times, following interviews with
top generals and civilian officials, the chief need at the moment
is to stop the ‘intimidation factor’ as the new Iraqi forces (such
as the 50 executed two weeks ago) are terrorized. The army,
police and guard units are all obviously penetrated by
informants. But as one senior U.S. official put it, the biggest task
is to get the unemployed to work, “holding shovels and
hammers, not AK-47s.”
But on the topic of the coming elections, Henry Kissinger had
the following thoughts on the timeline for Iraq.
“(The January elections) should be viewed not as a culmination
but as the first and perhaps least complicated achievement in the
quest for Iraqi self-government. Democracy in the West evolved
over centuries. It required first a church independent of the state;
then the Reformation, which imposed pluralism of religion; the
Enlightenment, which asserted the autonomy of reason from both
church and state; the Age of Discovery, which broadened
horizons; and finally capitalism, with its emphasis on
competition and the market. None of these conditions exists in
the Islamic world. Instead there is a merging of religion and
politics inimical to pluralism. A genuine democratic government
has come about only in Turkey, paradoxically through the
imposition of democratic forms by an autocratic leader. The
emergence of democratic institutions and of the arrangements
which hold them together cannot be engineered as an act of will;
it requires patience and modesty.” [Newsweek]
But first, Fallujah.
Iran: Parliament approved a continuation of the nuclear program
but not uranium enrichment. Of course they are enriching
uranium but the mullahs want it to appear they’re offering a
carrot before the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report in
about three weeks. Separately, our friends the Chinese are close
to signing a massive oil deal with Iran, thus mucking up the
West’s plans to tighten the screws on the nuclear weapons front,
though China would say “we’re just trying to secure our energy
needs for the next 100 years without having to take over
Indonesia.”
Ukraine: Last Sunday’s presidential election was a farce in the
eyes of western observers, let alone the Ukrainian people, and
now Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his opponent Viktor
Yuschenko head towards a November 21 run-off as the vote was
tabulated to be 40-39 for the Moscow-supported Yanukovych.
Polls taken before the vote as well as after showed Yuschenko
handily winning over 50%. The only good thing was violence in
this first round was limited but all bets are off for two weeks
from now. Yuschenko favors an alliance with the West and
NATO. Yanukovych is Putin’s puppet. As the Washington Post
put it, it’s all about the potential redivision of Europe.
Afganistan: Hamid Karzai officially became president with the
news he tallied some 55% of the vote in the recent election, a
huge mandate of his own considering the fact the #2 vote-getter
in a crowded field only had 16%. President Bush called the
nation “a beacon of hope in a troubled region of the world.” For
his part Karzai vowed to rid his country of warlords and drug
barons.
China: Ethnic violence has been spreading, including a massive
outbreak in a central province town. Reports varied on the
number of deaths (anywhere from 8 to 150) but it all erupted
over the killing of a 6-year-old Han girl (Han being the majority
here) by an Islamic taxi driver. With details sketchy it’s hard to
know what really happened but the bottom line is unrest in
China, overall, is rising whether it’s over ethnicity, economic
dislocation or government corruption. It is Beijing’s main fear.
Meanwhile, a bizarre op-ed from a former vice premier was
published in a leading newspaper a day before the U.S. election
accusing President Bush of trying to “rule over the whole world.”
This caused quite a stir since the government sought to be neutral
(as opposed to Vladimir Putin). So the next day Beijing
vigorously disputed the piece, going so far as to say the author
didn’t write it.
Russia: In a further sign of Stalinization, the prosecutor general
for Russia proposed taking family members of terrorists in
hostage crises. The opposition, what’s left of it, said this was an
attempt to resurrect a 1930s legal system. And here’s a bizarre
one. The #2 general responsible for the strategic long-range air
force was murdered on a highway. Why? No word, but to us
Kremlin watchers it’s troubling. What were his politics, for
example?
Netherlands: The murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in
Amsterdam at the hands of an Islamic extremist from Morocco
has huge ramifications across the continent. Van Gogh, a distant
relative of Vincent, made a short film critical of Islam and its
treatment of women and his murder is now inflaming passions.
Just about two years ago, extremist, right-wing politician Pim
Fortuyn was assassinated after warning of the threat posed by
Islam to his country. 8 others have been arrested in connection
with van Gogh’s murder including 6 other Moroccans, all
identified as part of a terror network. The Netherlands is
confronting a large-scale influx of Muslims and as quoted in one
news service, many natives are now calling Amsterdam “a
suburb of Mecca.”
I have written over the years of the rise of the right in Europe in
response to increased immigration, perhaps best personified by
the early election success of Austrian Jorg Haider. The killing of
van Gogh also means many in Europe will rail against Turkey’s
candidacy for E.U. membership, with the final decision on this
still slated for December 17.
United Arab Emirates: Sheikh Zayed, the leader here, died
Tuesday but while on his deathbed he appointed the first ever
female minister for his country, U.S.-educated Sheikha Lubina,
to be in charge of “economy and planning.” This is a significant
move for those of us looking for positive signs in the region.
Uruguay: As expected, Dr. Tabare Vazquez, a physician /
socialist, was elected to be his nation’s next president. All of
Latin America is turning distinctly to the left and anti-American.
Brazil: Larry Rohter of the New York Times had a good piece
concerning the ongoing dispute between the government here
and the IAEA on the issue of inspecting Brazil’s nuclear
facilities. No doubt Brazil looks around and sees how others
have elevated their profile on the world stage and it probably
feels it could use its nuclear program as a bargaining chip to
secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, Brazil now
being a nation of 180 million after all. To reiterate, while there is
no evidence Brazil seeks nuclear weapons (yet), the concern is
any enriched uranium could fall into the hands of the bad guys.
For Washington it’s just a further example of how the U.S.
cannot ignore developments south of the border.
Greece / Macedonia: And then you have this situation, a classic
example of the need for good diplomats in this day and age. For
years Greece has used the name Macedonia for a northern
province. But now the United States has decided to refer to the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia simply as
“Macedonia.” The U.S. said it wasn’t trying to piss Greece off,
but rather to reward Macedonia for its steps towards democracy.
Greece, though, has refused to recognize this because of
fears it implies territorial claims on the Greek province of the
same name. Good thing the Olympics aren’t still going on.
Random Musings
–Election tidbits:
For the record, the final electoral college tally was 286-252.
George Will perhaps put it best in discussing John Kerry’s
campaign; it was one of “breathtaking banality.” Kerry made a
ton of mistakes and never offered a cogent reason to vote for
him.
But to be objective about it, as everyone offers up their own
explanations for the margin of victory, remember it still came
down to Ohio and a 51 to 49 vote there. Had Kerry just
enunciated a clear position on Iraq back in April, and stuck to it,
he may have pulled it out. On the other hand, had President
Bush not been AWOL from May to September 2003 as the Iraqi
insurgency intensified, he could have won in a rout, 54-45.
Don’t expect any reaching across the aisles of Congress for
renewed civility. All you needed to see was House Minority
Leader Nancy Pelosi foaming at the mouth in an interview with
Tom Brokaw to know the Democrats are out for blood.
Why does either party bother with the young people? Once
again they showed up in the same numbers, percentage-wise, as
2000, despite an intensive effort to get them involved.
Of those identifying “honest and trustworthy” as the most
important qualities in a president, Bush won 70-29.
Michael Moore killed the Democrats. Someday they’ll realize
that.
Only 7 House incumbents lost their seats. In 2002 it was 8. 95%
of the 435 races were basically uncontested. A typical example
of this farce was in my home state of New Jersey where the 13
incumbents garnered the following percentage of the popular
vote.
75, 65, 63, 67, 58, 67, 57, 69, 67, 97 (Donald Payne / Newark),
68, 59, 76.
I’m one guy not afraid to admit mistakes, like my prediction that
Kerry would eke it out. In the same regard I was not a big fan
initially of Arnold Schwarzenegger, but I am now. I hope the
Constitution is changed to allow him to run, as it should be for
any foreign born U.S. citizen. But first Arnold has to sustain
some sense of fiscal stability in California. And for the record,
I’ve always liked Jeb Bush more than his brother and hope Jeb is
a candidate in 2008.
As for Hillary, I still believe she will not run for reelection to the
Senate though she’ll keep this close to her vest until early ’06. If
she wants to be president, why risk a potential defeat at the hands
of Gov. George Pataki? [I figure Rudy will be in the cabinet and
not available for the race.] But in the meantime, I promise not to
write too much about her, because on the talk shows it’s already
“All Hillary, All the Time.”
Some of us will be sick of Barack Obama by next spring,
starting with his appearance Sunday on “Meet the Press.” No
doubt he’s a good role model and has a tremendous future, but
any talk of him being on the Democratic ticket in 2008 is
ridiculous. He brings nothing to the table in terms of added
votes, whether you want to face that reality or not. He actually
probably hurts the ticket.
It’s pretty amazing us Republicans don’t have to put up with
Tom Daschle anymore. I’m also amazed the Indians on the Pine
Ridge reservation weren’t able to muster more dead folks to vote
for the senator.
Geezuz. I had no idea how unstable Republican Senator Jim
Bunning of Kentucky is until I saw some of the campaign clips.
Nonetheless, he scored another term which had me running
back to the record book. Did you realize, baseball fans, that
when Bunning pitched his perfect game against the Mets on
Father’s Day, 1964, he threw just 90 pitches? In fact he went to
three balls on only two batters.
I told you in the spring of 2003 that Teresa Heinz Kerry was a
whack job. But in saying on 4/5/03 in this space that she would
“torpedo” her husband’s campaign, I had no idea the senator
would get as far as he did.
–Some thoughts from abroad on President Bush’s reelection.
Vaclav Klaus, Czech Prime Minister:
“He symbolizes America’s best traditions: the love of freedom,
optimism, individualism, a liberal economic environment and
conservative values that are also close to my heart.” [BBC News]
Jose Maria Aznar, former prime minister of Spain:
“Hope has triumphed….
“I believe that Mr. Bush’s reelection ushers in a period of hope
for the international community. Leaders all around the world
can also play their part in defending our democracies and way of
life. We have another four years before us and Western leaders
can now join the Allied effort to build a safer and freer world. It
is true, primitive anti-American feeling and unfounded hostility
will make things more difficult for those leaders who have flirted
with these tendencies. But the world is now presented with a
clear opportunity.
“Over the last few months we have witnessed numerous attempts
to introduce and exploit issues that have the greatest capacity to
create divisions. Power has been abused and a damaging sense
of polarization has set in. Hatred has been promoted in the place
of understanding. Unity has been replaced with division. It is
comforting to see that this strategy has simply mobilized many
more millions of Americans, millions of Americans who went to
the polls in order to do exactly the opposite. They have voted for
a policy based on principles. They have voted for a sincere
policy, for a leadership based on convictions. This policy does
not shy away from unpleasant realities, but faces up to them,
because it knows that this is the only way of overcoming them.
This is the lesson that we can all learn: Attempts to create
division can be opposed with a policy based on principles. And
this policy can be a triumphant one.” [Wall Street Journal]
Aznar would make a terrific UN Secretary General.
–Speaking of the UN, Kofi Annan has been linked to another
scandal, this one involving the UN High Commissioner for
Refugees, former Dutch Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers. It seems
Annan pardoned Lubbers following allegations he had groped
and harassed a female staffer, charges a UN watchdog group
confirmed.
–My friend Johnny Mac, Pennsylvania Republican, notes that
Bush lost Philadelphia and the surrounding environs by 400,000,
but even after taking into account areas such as Pittsburgh, he
won the rest of the state by 272,000. So Johnny is suggesting
that New Jersey, already solidly Democrat in presidential
contests, take on Philly, freeing up Pennsy to go Republican in
future votes. “It has ball teams, a deep water port, cheesesteaks,
the Liberty Bell, a statue of Sylvester Stallone, all kinds of neat
stuff.”
Hmmmmmmm….I do like cheesesteaks……developing…..
–A big report on global warming is coming out this week
focusing on the Arctic and the rapidly melting ice shelf. So be
prepared to be inundated with coverage of it and if you’re living
near the ocean start sandbagging. It is a serious topic, though,
and now President Bush is going to have to at least pretend he
cares, as compared to his pathetic response after he first took
office.
–I told my friend Jimbo that I finally got 7 hours of sleep the
night we turned back the clock, to which he replied, “I thought it
was your job to ‘worry’ for the rest of us? If you’re sleeping that
long how is that supposed to make me feel more secure?”
“You’re forgetting one crucial detail,” I reminded him. “I sleep
with one eye open.”
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
And as even Senator Kerry said in his concession speech, the one
prayer we should all recite every day is “God bless America.”
—
Gold closed at $434
Oil, $49.61
Returns for the week 11/1-11/5
Dow Jones +3.6% [10387]
S&P 500 +3.2% [1166]
S&P MidCap +3.0%
Russell 2000 +3.5%
Nasdaq +3.2% [2038]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-11/5/04
Dow Jones -0.6%
S&P 500 +4.9%
S&P MidCap +7.6%
Russell 2000 +8.5%
Nasdaq +1.8%
Bulls 57.0
Bears 23.7 [Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support and that we were
able to stay friends through the election.
Brian Trumbore
