[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
The War on Terror
I have believed since the aftermath of 9/11 that taking out
Saddam Hussein could help transform the entire region and while
my criticisms of the handling of the post-war period in Iraq have
been harsh, and dead on, I have nonetheless maintained that the
overall goal remained the same. For holding such a view one
gets labeled a neocon. I never threw away my badge, even in the
darkest hours. But while commentator and retired lieutenant
colonel Ralph Peters, a fellow neocon, advises this week against
getting too cocky, it was fun for some of us to see the following
as part of a lead editorial in the New York Times, 3/1.
“…this has so far been a year of heartening surprises – each one
remarkable in itself, and taken together truly astonishing. The
Bush administration is entitled to claim a healthy share of the
credit for many of these advances. It boldly proclaimed the
cause of Middle East democracy at a time when few in the West
thought it had any realistic chance. And for all the negative
consequences that flowed from the American invasion of Iraq,
there could have been no democratic elections there this January
if Saddam Hussein had still been in power. Washington’s
challenge now lies in finding ways to nurture and encourage
these still fragile trends without smothering them in a
triumphalist embrace.”
No doubt, much work has to be done and it will take years of
steadfast resolve and patience. Take Iraq, for instance.
Newsweek has a scary piece on the plight of women here, many
of whom, despite the election, are going back underground and
out of sight because extremists have been killing off those who
exhibit modern sensibilities. And the Sunnis were undoubtedly
responsible for the slaying of the presiding judge in Saddam’s
trial, while Zarqawi claimed responsibility for the horrific suicide
attack that killed 125. We are far from the point where the U.S.
can exit the country with any degree of confidence and the White
House must remain vigilant to falling poll numbers at home in
terms of public support for the effort.
But there is much excitement in the region today, particularly
with regards to Syria. In the immediate aftermath of the
assassination of Lebanon’s Rafik Hariri, I wrote the following on
2/19/05.
“Regardless of who did it, the killing of Hariri was one dumb
move” and went on to explain the vital role French President
Jacques Chirac could play. That weekend, before President
Bush’s trip to Europe, no one in the mainstream press pointed
this out while earlier, blowhard Bill O’Reilly was re-instituting
his “Boycott France” campaign.
Far be it for me to defend France for its anti-American actions
over the years, but being a neocon doesn’t preclude one from
also being a pragmatist. You’ve since seen what’s happened.
Presidents Bush and Chirac met in Europe and, while disagreeing
on almost everything else, issued a stern warning to the
government in Damascus to get their troops out of Lebanon.
Since that day, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her
French counterpart blasted Syria and then the likes of Germany,
Russia, Egypt and, shockingly, Saudi Arabia piled on to
condemn the government of Bashar Assad. Throw in some
classic “people power” in Beirut itself and before you knew it,
the government in Lebanon had collapsed and Syria’s puppet,
President Lahoud, was scrambling to keep up with the speed of
change.
I’ve noted before that Assad is a lightweight, a “dim bulb,” and
he had to be terrified when Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah
upbraided him as he added his voice to the chorus, withdraw
from Lebanon. As I go to post Saturday morning, Assad is
supposed to be laying out his plans which it appears will not
satisfy the international community.
Syria is still dangerous, principally because it is a sponsor of
state terrorism and has some WMD on hand that could be passed
off to the likes of Hizbollah. But Assad himself will fall quickly,
though it’s difficult to see who would fill the breach.
And then there is Iran. Even the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s Mohamed ElBaradei had to admit that when it came to
Tehran’s intransigence on the nuclear weapons front, “the ball is
in Iran’s court to come clean” as Iran has continually blocked all
investigations. The U.S. is pressing for the issue to be brought
before the UN Security Council.
But it’s highly unlikely the Council would do anything when
member Russia holds a veto; the Kremlin having just agreed to
deliver nuclear fuel for the startup of Iran’s first nuclear reactor.
Don’t worry, says Moscow, Iran has to return the spent fuel, thus
preventing the mullahs from extracting plutonium.
And then a few days later an Iranian government official said his
country would not give up its “right” to enrich uranium.
With all it sees happening in its neighborhood these days, the
mullahs are desperately scrambling to come up with the bomb
before it’s too late. Both reformers and hardliners would no
doubt act with national pride should it develop one. It’s
surrounded by bad players, after all; better to have a few than
not.
So with this in mind, and time running out, the White House is
attempting to choose the best course of action. It can join the
Euro-3 group (Germany, France, and Britain) and negotiate with
Tehran, or it can continue to adopt a harder line, threaten military
force and hope the regime topples from within before the
scientists say “we’ve done it!”
Here are two viewpoints. First, from an editorial in the Wall
Street Journal.
“…the U.S., with its stake in Iraq and the Persian Gulf, its
opposition to terrorist groups that Iran sponsors, and its
commitment to spreading democracy in the Mideast, cannot be
indifferent to a nuclear Iran. The problem is not that we have yet
to hit on the right mix of carrots and sticks to cajole Iran into
responsibility. The problem is that Iran’s theocratic regime is by
its nature inimical to American interests; any move that extends
its life also prolongs the hazard it poses to the U.S.
“That does not mean the U.S. should drop diplomacy and take up
arms against Iran tomorrow. It does mean that if any headway is
to be made, the Administration needs to be absolutely clear about
Iran’s intentions and Europe’s motives. Signing on to Europe’s
strategy offers one certain outcome: a nuclear Iran.”
And this from Reul Marc Gerecht.
“The odds are Mr. Bush is not going to do Libya again. And the
French and Germans are not going to take America’s advice.
The two-decade old strategy of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the
influential former president and the driving force behind Iran’s
nuclear weapons program, is soon likely to come to fruition. The
Islamic republic will have successfully played divide and
conquer against the west. If this leads to a clerical A-bomb, or to
a pre-emptive US strike amid a chorus of European outrage, the
odds are good that the bonds holding the US and Europe together
will further fray. One day, perhaps after the EU lifts its arms
embargo on China and France supplies sophisticated radar and
torpedo technology to Beijing, they will snap.”
[I apologize. Clipped the quote out and forgot to label the
source.]
Finally, regarding North Korea, Nicholas Eberstadt had the
following take in the Washington Post.
“The greatest potential dividends for North Korean nuclear and
ballistic diplomacy…still lie in store…For more than half a
century, U.S. security policy has been charged with imposing
‘deterrence’ on Pyongyang. But hasn’t Pyongyang also been
thinking about how to ‘deter’ the United States over those same
long decades? Nuclear weapons (especially long-range nuclear
missiles) might well answer the ‘deterrence question’ for the
North Korean state.
“Faced with the risk of nuclear attack on the U.S. mainland,
Washington could hesitate at a time of crisis on the Korean
Peninsula. And if Washington’s security commitment to South
Korea were not credible in a crisis, the military alliance would be
dead in all but name. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program,
in short, may be its best hope for achieving its dual objectives of
breaking the U.S.-South Korea military alliance and pushing
American troops off the peninsula.”
Wall Street
Back on 2/19/05 in this space, in addressing the exploding
deficits, I wrote “Bottom line, we could be headed towards a
long era of Japan-like stagnation.” This week Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan, appearing before a House committee,
said “rising deficits (result) in a stagnant economic system,”
adding “the consequences for the U.S. economy of doing nothing
(i.e., not containing deficit spending) could be severe.”
The bond market sold off on the chairman’s rather gloomy (if not
entirely realistic) assessment but by week’s end it was back to
“happy days are here again,” even if the price of crude was
finishing back up at nosebleed levels, $53.78.
Friday’s solid employment report for February, slightly better
than expected, was the difference between a flat or down week
and an up one for equities, while the bond market rallied back
because the report wasn’t stronger, let alone the inflation data
contained within that was once again tame.
Earlier in the week, a survey of the Business Roundtable of
CEOs revealed that while confidence among this generally
overpaid group was at its highest level in three years, and as 60%
plan to increase their level of capital spending; only 36% said
they planned on hiring more people.
There was some other economic news, including solid February
retail sales reports from the big chain stores and another that said
global semiconductor sales were up 18% in January, year over
year. And while the ISM data on manufacturing was a little
weaker than expected, it was still solid and, again, a key inflation
component showed it was well under control.
Overseas, the news is mixed. The European Central Bank
lowered its growth forecast for 2005 to just 1.6% in the euro
zone and Germany’s unemployment rate hit another post-World
War II high. Australia’s economy is slowing, though its central
bank raised interest rates over fears inflation was picking up.
But on the positive side, South Korea’s business confidence
index hit a 10-year high (out of nowhere, it seemed) and Japan’s
latest recession would appear to have been a brief one as both
industrial production and retail sales came in at the best levels in
years.
But back in the U.S., let’s focus on two area; real estate and oil.
New home sales plummeted 9% in January but, regarding 2004,
it was established the average price was up 11%, the fastest
annual increase since 1979 when inflation was running at over
twice the rate of today. However, the increase was only 1.7% in
the fourth quarter so a trend could be developing. And, while the
average home price soared due to the luxury market, the
‘median’ actually dropped 5% from a year ago. Finally, the
National Association of Realtors reported that of 7.7 million
homes sold last year, 36% were second-homes for vacation or
investment purposes. Bubble bubble.
As for oil, goodness gracious. OPEC first said it would come up
with a new “basket” to gauge price levels, meaning it will use the
new scale to manipulate prices even further. For example, Arab
light is $8-$9 cheaper than West Texas Intermediate, the most
expensive blend that we all quote in the U.S. OPEC could then
say the new target basket is $45-$50, with Arab light being a
greater component than it currently is, ergo, that would equate to
W. Texas of $53-$58. [Just musing here.]
And OPEC’s acting secretary general offered up that $80 oil is
not out of the question over the next few years, especially if there
is a big supply disruption.
But while the supply / demand situation is said to be driving
prices, inventory levels are really not that bad; which means one
thing, blame the hedge funds. Actually, while you’re at it also
blame the unseasonably cold weather across much of the U.S.
and Europe that is impacting sentiment, whether warranted by
the fundamentals or not.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at their highest levels in
over 3 ½ years with the Dow finishing just 60 points shy of the
11000 level, 10940, and the S&P at 1222. The Nasdaq, though,
continues to lag and is still off about 5% for the year at 2070.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 2.99% 2-yr. 3.56% 10-yr. 4.32% 30-yr. 4.65%
I had an e-mail discussion with Canadian John G. last weekend
concerning the current-account deficit. We both agreed it was
basically much ado about nothing. [The federal budget deficit
and national debt, on the other hand, are disconcerting.] So I had
to smile when the Federal Reserve offered up the results of its
own extensive study and reached the same conclusion. It sees no
pending crisis in the current-account picture.
On the week, the 10-year Treasury finally closed above 4.30%,
but on Friday morning, with the initial knee-jerk reaction to the
employment report, the yield spiked to 4.48% before rational
behavior set in. I’ve said it before and it bears repeating. For
purposes of this column, I’m not going to comment extensively
on the bond market until I see the 10-year above 4.50% and even
then it doesn’t matter that much until it hits 5%, at which point it
would definitely impact housing. But if you also told me we got
from here to there in one week, well that would concern us all.
–Final terms were announced on Gazprom’s merger with
Rosneft with the state (read the Kremlin) owning 51% of
Gazprom, while the Yugansk field (the top Yukos asset) is to be
spun off as a separate, state-controlled entity headed by
Rosneft’s chairman. [Remember, China provided $6 billion in
funding for the purchase of Yugansk.]
But…in a late week development…Rosneft’s chairman is
making waves, saying he doesn’t like the merger terms. Folks,
this is a direct threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule. Maybe Rosneft’s
leader will come to his senses but it’s potentially explosive.
And this is all happening against the backdrop of the trial of
Yukos’ Mikhail Khodorkovsky and associate Platon Lebedev.
After almost 1 ½ years in prison, Khodorkovsky finally took the
stand in his own defense. From the Moscow Times:
“ ‘To conclude, I would like to say again that I am accused of
crimes that simply didn’t happen, that were simply thought up in
the heads of investigators,’ Khodorkovsky said, ending nearly
three hours of testimony. ‘If there is no concrete evidence of my
personal illegal activity, then I don’t understand what I must
defend myself against – from inventions and opinions?’
“The prosecution had a ‘clear task,’ Khodorkovsky said, and he
felt sorry for state prosecutor Dmitry Shokhin because he must
prove the hypotheses of others.
“After a one-hour lunch break, the court reconvened. Dressed in
a bright blue prosecutor’s uniform with three gold stars on his
epaulets, Shokhin looked over his laptop computer to tell the
judge he had no questions for Khodorkovsky.
“ ‘The state prosecution understands that everything that has
been said by (Khodorkovsky) is untrue and concocted by his
lawyers,’ Shokhin told the judge.
“Lebedev, who had been furiously coloring a Japanese crossword
puzzle, paused from his activity and laughed at Shokhin’s
comments.”
And that’s the justice system in Russia these days, friends.
Actually, it hasn’t changed much in centuries.
–ChevronTexaco is rumored to be looking to acquire Unocal.
–Last week I mused Fannie Mae still had no clue as to the true
value of its derivatives portfolio. This week the mortgage giant
announced it was recognizing an additional $2.8 billion in
derivatives losses.
–Japan’s richest man, a railroad tycoon, was arrested on fraud
charges for cooking the books.
–Telecom pioneer Walter Anderson was arrested on charges of
perpetrating the largest case of tax fraud by an individual in U.S.
history. Anderson, the CEO of Orbital Recovery (an outfit that
extends the life of communications satellites), allegedly hid $450
million of income in offshore corporations, thus avoiding about
$210 million in taxes. For example, in 1998 he reported income
of just $68,000 and paid $494 in taxes when his actual income
was more like $126 million.
–Shares in drug makers Biogen and Elan plummeted following
word that sales of a multiple-sclerosis drug, Tysabri, were
suspended after the death of a patient who was being treated with
it. [A 2nd death was announced later in the week.] In one day,
Biogen fell from $67 to $38 and Elan from $27 to $8 (70%).
–Federated Department Stores finally acquired May for $11
billion. The combination brings together the Macy’s,
Bloomingdale’s, Lord & Taylor, and Marshall Fields chains,
among others, though the total revenues of $30 billion are still
dwarfed by Wal-Mart’s $260 billion. The merger will place
Macy’s in the forefront since it’s a new name in many parts of
the country in terms of retail presence. From a branding
standpoint in these virgin territories, however, you can see where
sponsorship of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade should be a
big positive.
–Bank of America agreed to pay $460 million to settle its
portion of a class-action suit brought by investors in WorldCom.
Last fall Citigroup agreed to pay $2.6 billion. These aren’t small
numbers, sports fans.
–Two groups of investors led by Bain Capital of Boston
(founded by current Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney) have
proposed buying the entire 30-team National Hockey League for
$3.5 billion; thereby valuing each franchise at $117 million. The
larger ones, convinced their own value is far higher, want
nothing to do with the offer…until they realize their investments
are otherwise worthless as things stand today.
–As a result of Marsh & McLennan’s settlement in the insurance
bid-rigging scandal, the company said it will have to lay off
2,500.
–General Motors’ sales fell 12% in February while Ford’s were
off 3%. But Toyota’s, Nissan’s and Hyundai’s were each up 10-
19%. [DaimlerChrysler was up 7.5%, Honda down 7%.]
–MCI’s biggest shareholder opposes Verizon’s merger bid so
Qwest remains in the picture.
–Merrill Lynch had to fork over $1 million in damages to a
medical malpractice lawyer in Florida who blamed the brokerage
firm for portfolio losses. But from what I read, this fellow was
investing in some big names, including J.P. Morgan and AOL.
In other words, as much as I’ve slammed the Street for its
research, at some point clients share the responsibility and in this
instance it’s a bogus judgment.
–The Wall Street Journal reports that just 55% of companies
offered earnings guidance in 2004 vs. 72% in ’03; a direct
offshoot of the Street scandal and Sarbanes-Oxley.
–A good friend of the family, Allen O., wrote me on the issue of
Vioxx.
“I suffered joint pain after my doctor tried his usual bag of
prescription tricks. Then came Vioxx. Oh boy, relief!
“Then came the reports of the risks and it was withdrawn. My
pain is back and none of the usual treatments are helping.
Pardon me if I question whether the FDA has made the proper
decisions in all these related cases since over 90% of us are
probably not high risk candidates.”
And thus you have the dilemma the FDA faces in all such
matters; weighing the risks vs. rewards.
–I was going through some old files the other day and came
across a few notes I took from a book on the great trader Jesse
Livermore. Sometimes I need to follow these rules myself more
assiduously.
“Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a
profit.”
“To buy into a rising market is the most comfortable way of
buying stocks. Stocks are never too high for you to begin buying
or too low to begin selling.”
“They say you never grow poor taking profits. No you don’t.
But neither do you grow rich taking a 4-point spread in a bull
market.”
–According to a Rand study, here are the top five universities in
the U.S. in terms of fundraising in 2004.
Harvard…$540 million
Stanford…$524 mm
Cornell…$385 mm
Penn…$332 mm
Southern Cal …$322 mm [National champs…current Heisman
Trophy winner…great looking cheerleaders.]
–It’s estimated that the economy of New York City gained $254
million as a result of Christo’s “The Gates.” 4 million saw it,
with 1.5 million being from out of town.
–Air traffic at New York’s three major airports hit a new record
in 2004, exceeding the peak set before 9/11.
–Deflation Watch: The state franchise fee on my cable bill was
reduced 18 cents last month! I can apply this towards my next
trip for gas, or I could drop it on a sidewalk and run an
experiment to see who picks it up.
–With all the talk of Martha being released from prison, I’d just
like to mention Oprah. Watching the Oscars you couldn’t help
but see her in the middle of every shot and she looked stunning.
And what a terrific role model she is. You go, girl!
–My portfolio: Sorry, my Portuguese friends, but I sold out of
my minimal position in the country, having made 20% and a
point. You’ll recall this was my little experiment following a
survey I saw that had Portugal as the hardest working nation in
the European Union. I also jettisoned one of my software dogs at
a substantial loss and purchased more carbon fiber. [Hey, Steve
Fossett’s plane had carbon components!] All in all, I’m still
roughly 20% equities, 80% cash.
–Finally, for a good look back at Nasdaq 5000 as we approach
the fifth anniversary of the peak in the Bubble, check out my
March 4 piece on the “Wall Street History” link. Traders in
particular should print it out, even if it’s a bit painful.
More Foreign Affairs
Israel: The government blamed Syria for the Tel Aviv bombing,
saying Islamic Jihad received its orders from headquarters in
Damascus. Separately, an Israeli newspaper opinion poll
revealed that 62% view Prime Minister Sharon as “corrupt,” but
only 12% believe his Gaza withdrawal plans were designed to
divert attention from his family’s legal difficulties.
China: The National People’s Congress is opening and
Taiwanese in particular are looking to see what emerges on the
legislative front when it comes to the issue of Taiwan’s drive for
independence. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s chief executive, Tung
Chee-hwa, is being forced out ‘for health reasons.’ Beijing saw
Tung as having lost control over the political process here.
While the initial reaction was that Hong Kong would get
someone more amenable to the people, don’t think for a second
that Beijing is prepared to allow more political freedoms.
Lastly, China responded to the latest U.S. criticism on China’s
human rights policies by issuing a report of its own, the sixth
year it has done so. One of the items mentioned read as follows.
“In 2004, the atrocity of U.S. troops abusing Iraqi POWs
exposed the dark side of the human rights performance of the
United States.”
When the day comes for China’s government to fan the flames of
nationalism in order to reassert its authority, issues like Abu
Ghraib will be at the forefront of the propaganda machine. It’s
why I warned of the dangers when Abu Ghraib was first
exposed. Whether we like it or not, the United States has to be
almost perfect in its behavior, or else it becomes fodder for those
opposing us, as this particular case remains throughout the
Middle East.
[In a similar vein, the accidental shooting involving the Italian
journalist in Iraq on Friday is damaging, even as I believe initial
reports that the vehicle was speeding towards the checkpoint.
Otherwise, I’m withholding further comment until the facts are
in.]
Saudi Arabia: Commentator Ralph Peters has the following take.
“Our continued indulgence of the ‘royal’ mafia that runs this
country is an ugly blot on America’s refurbished record of
fighting for freedom, human rights and democracy. We can’t
change everything at once, but our pressure on the Saudis to
reform should be relentless even if we don’t like all the choices
the population makes in future elections. This perverted state
could implode if it clings to the past and yes, the oil matters. We
may need to intervene to keep it flowing.”
Ukraine: The former interior minister committed suicide on the
eve of his having to give testimony in the 2000 murder of a well-
known journalist, Georgiy Gongadze. This week, President
Yushchenko said the murder had been solved with three
policemen detained. Former President Leonid Kuchma was
accused of involvement previously after tapes of phone
conversations emerged but Kuchma has not been charged.
Indonesia: After 13 years, the government is reopening the door
to U.S. training of its military, a big positive in the war against al
Qaeda. But opponents of the move say Indonesia hasn’t
improved enough in the area of human rights.
Separately, Muslim cleric Bashir was acquitted on the most
serious charges resulting from the Bali bombing and he faces just
20 months in prison (allowing for 10 months already served).
The U.S. and Australia are upset over the verdict but in the case
of the U.S., it didn’t do the government’s case any favors in not
allowing investigators to interview two leading terrorists that
Washington is currently holding, both key figures for the
prosecution.
Random Musings
–The polls are not looking good for President Bush and his quest
to reform Social Security. In a USA Today / CNN / Gallup
survey, only 35% approve of the Bush plan. In a New York
Times / CBS News poll, 69% were against if it meant a reduction
in guaranteed benefits. While a Pew Research survey had only
46% supporting private accounts.
[Surprisingly, at least to some of us, President Bush’s overall
approval number is stuck at the 49-50% level, regardless of the
survey and the positive developments on the foreign policy
front.]
–I’m excited by the prospects for real tax reform and will
support whatever emerges from the president’s tax panel.
Anything is going to be far better than what we have today.
[Especially when you look at the above story on the likes of
Walter Anderson and his tax dodge.]
–Francis Fukuyama is a well-known historian who hangs his hat
at Johns Hopkins. In an op-ed for the Journal he was discussing
a new Asia-Pacific economic partnership when he said the
following.
“In the long run, this (partnership) could potentially serve as the
basis for a security relationship as well, an alliance of Asian
democracies that multilateralizes our existing relationships with
Japan, Australia, South Korea and possibly India as well.”
Ahem. Like I’ve been saying for years now, my proposed supra-
alliance. Replace South Korea with Britain and you’re all set.
[Follow-up: Last week I noted that Australia had committed an
additional 450 troops to Iraq. I should have added that Prime
Minister John Howard did this as a gesture to Japan, for the
Aussie forces will be providing security for Japan’s troops
already there as part of the reconstruction effort. Japan’s pacifist
constitution bars them from using force. Regardless, it’s another
display of this burgeoning alliance of mine.]
–The New York Times had a scary story on the Netherlands and
the natives who are moving out of the country at a rapid clip due
to social tensions created by the exploding Muslim population.
Immigrant youths now make up half of the prison population and
as is the case in many nations in Europe, immigrants are also
making little effort to assimilate into Dutch society. As much as
I support Turkey’s bid for E.U. membership, stories like this are
the reason why I think they’ll be denied as attitudes are rapidly
evolving across the continent.
–Pope John Paul II is setting an incredible example for those
forced to live with pain. As a Catholic who earlier felt he should
have stepped down, I’m now in the camp that believes he should
remain as long as he has his mental faculties. In a poll of U.S.
Catholics, half say he should remain pontiff until he dies, while
his overall approval rating is now 93%, despite all the problems
our church has faced.
–It was pretty funny that CBS titans Walter Cronkite, Don
Hewitt, Mike Wallace and Andy Rooney all told The New
Yorker magazine that they don’t watch colleague Dan Rather.
And I loved this anecdote by Adam Lisberg of the New York
Daily News.
“Elsewhere, the article paints a picture of Rather ostentatiously
trying to look like a plugged-in reporter at a ‘CBS Evening
News’ story meeting last month.
“Twice he grabbed a ringing newsroom phone by saying ‘Rather’
– then had to repeat himself, because CBS News employees on
the other end couldn’t believe he was really answering the
phone.”
–U.S. News & World Report had a blurb on Howard Dean’s
management style at Democratic National Committee
headquarters now that he has moved in. It turns out he keeps his
office door closed. So this gives me an excuse to rant about one
of my old pet peeves when I was in the corporate world.
Back in the late 1980s, a brokerage firm I was working with sent
me down to North Carolina to be the sales manager for an outfit
we had just acquired. The first day I walked in and everyone…
everyone… had their office door closed. That was the last that
happened. I kind of liked Dean from the standpoint that he is a
good guest on those talk shows he’s willing to appear on, like
“Meet the Press,” because he’s not afraid to speak his mind.
[Many of the Bush folks, on the other hand, are dreadfully
boring…i.e., Andrew Card.] But now I have to admit Dean truly
is a jerk.
–It’s so expensive to park and maintain a car in New York City
that there are 7.6% fewer registered vehicles today than the peak
in 1999.
–In a poll for Quinnipiac University, by a 63-30 margin New
Yorkers want the 2012 Olympics, but here’s what idiots these
people are. 56% are opposed to building a stadium and further,
by a 45-42 margin they believe New York City could get the bid
without one. Hel-lo?
–Jimbo and I were discussing the dolphins that beached
themselves on the Florida Keys this week. Very disappointing.
We thought they were smarter than that but it seems they weren’t
able to read the tidal charts and didn’t realize they’d get caught
in water six inches deep. No cushy jobs at Sea World for these
frauds.
–Steve Fossett, 60, completed the first solo, around-the-world
flight in about 67 hours; an incredible feat by an amazing
individual. Thank God we have pioneers like him and the
aircraft’s builder, Burt Rutan. Otherwise, life would really be
quite dull.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $435
Oil, $53.78…highest weekly close since 10/22/04
Returns for the week 2/28-3/4
Dow Jones +0.9% [10940]…+50% from the 10/9/02 lows
S&P 500 +0.9% [1222]…+57%
S&P MidCap +1.3%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq +0.3% [2070]…+86%
Returns for the period 1/1/05-3/4/05
Dow Jones +1.5%
S&P 500 +0.8%
S&P MidCap +2.4%
Russell 2000 -1.0%
Nasdaq -4.8%
Bulls 54.7
Bears 22.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
