[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
[I have some words on Pope John Paul II at the bottom.]
The War on Terror
It’s almost as if the democracy movement in the Middle East
ground to a halt this week, though I prefer to think of it more as a
step back after two steps forward.
In Iraq it has now been over two months since the historic vote
and there has been little accomplished. The elected national
assembly has yet to pick the president and two vice presidents,
which then would choose the prime minister, who would then
form the government while the assembly writes the constitution.
The Kurds and Shiites can’t agree on the top leadership, even as
the Sunnis have been offered the position of ‘speaker’ yet are so
faction-ridden there is no telling who will emerge as their voice.
Should this chaos go on much longer it puts the entire operation
in doubt.
As for security, while American casualties are down and Iraqi
security forces appear to be making strides, NBC’s Richard
Engel, who was home from Iraq before heading back, told Brian
Williams that it is still totally unsafe for a westerner to walk a
mere 100 yards on Baghdad’s main thoroughfare.
And just a word on the oil-for-food scandal. The Wall Street
Journal best described the behavior of U.N. Secretary General
Kofi Annan as one of “patterns of willful neglect, conflict of
interest and incompetence.” Annan’s chief of staff destroyed
files before investigators could get their hands on them and son
Kojo’s heist is now up to $480,000. So what did the U.N.’s most
incompetent leader ever say when asked if he would leave?
“Hell no.” This from the man who brought us Rwanda. Of
course the White House isn’t joining the chorus for removal
because it feels like it still needs him on issues such as Iraq and
Syria.
I’ve been noting for weeks now that the Bush administration
better start paying attention to the opinion polls because they are
slipping precipitously and a further slide jeopardizes the overall
mission, no matter how much some of us keep saying to focus on
the Big Picture.
As for Syria and Lebanon, progress here has ground to a halt as
well as pro-Syrian Prime Minister Karani abandoned for a
second time his effort to form a national unity government,
thereby threatening May’s parliamentary elections; a clear goal
of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Commentator Ralph Peters asked, “What will Assad do on the
way out to destabilize Lebanon and ruin the momentum of the
democracy movement?” concluding:
“If the Syrian government attempts to destroy Lebanon, the
Damascus regime itself must be destroyed.” [New York Post]
Commentator Charles Krauthammer, along the same lines in the
Washington Post.
“The rapid evacuation and collapse of the Syrian position in
Lebanon is crucial not just because of what it will do for
Lebanon but because of the weakening effect it will have on the
Assad dictatorship.
“We need, therefore, to be relentless in insisting on a full (and as
humiliating as possible) evacuation of Syria from Lebanon,
followed by a campaign of economic, political and military
pressure on the Assad regime. We must push now and push
hard.”
Finally, regarding the Presidential Commission on the
intelligence failures leading up to the Iraq war, what’s most
worrisome is there still is no coordination and information
sharing and as the panel members said there is nothing in the past
to suggest any changes they recommend will ever be
implemented. Further, today there is “disturbingly little” real
intelligence on North Korea, Iran, Russia and China.
U.S. credibility is shot and this has a huge impact on future
events. It would also help matters for President Bush to act like
he gave a damn.
Here’s but one scenario I’ve touched on in the past regarding
North Korea. Former Undersecretary of Defense Fred Ikle laid it
out in an op-ed for Friday’s Journal.
“To realize the gravity….it helps to consider another disturbing
piece of strategic intelligence that is now in plain sight: the
possibility of a widespread and prolonged electrical blackout
caused by a single, relatively low-yield nuclear weapon. To shed
more light on this threat, Congress established a commission
which was staffed by highly competent scientists. The report of
the experts was published last summer. It explained how the
electromagnetic pulse from a high-altitude explosion of a nuclear
weapon can deprive a large region of electricity and permanently
disable electric equipment, thus shutting down the Internet,
traffic lights, gasoline stations, food storage, police cars, fire
engines, and municipal water and sewer systems. Without
protective measures, such a vast and disabling blackout could
last for months and cause near anarchy with huge casualties.”
I’d take out the word ‘near’ in the last sentence.
Wall Street
The collapse of insurance giant AIG continued as former CEO
and Chairman Hank Greenberg was forced to relinquish his last
post amid further allegations of fraud and admissions of guilt on
the part of AIG’s board. Greenberg himself admitted making
misleading statements about the big reinsurance contracts that
are at the forefront of the investigation, including with Warren
Buffett’s General Re. [Buffett will be questioned as to his own
knowledge of the deals on April 12 and I suspect he is innocent
of any wrongdoing.]
But early in the week the board conceded the company would lop
off about $1.7 billion from its net worth, along with admitting it
misled state regulators just this year. AIG delayed release of its
2004 annual report yet again, even as some AIG sycophants still
insisted the worst was over. Not by a long shot as investigators
sift through piles of contracts, criminal prosecutions at the ready.
On the economic front Friday’s jobs report for March was less
than exciting – 110,000 jobs having been created, far fewer than
expected – but the report contained good news on the inflation
front as average hourly earnings rose just 0.3% and a key reading
on manufacturing was off the previous month’s pace, albeit
slightly. Earlier, readings on personal income and spending were
up solidly and consumer confidence was down.
Bonds rallied big on the inflation data, even ignoring record high
levels for crude and gasoline, but the issue remains, where does
the Fed go from here? Well we have another four weeks of data
before the Fed reconvenes.
On the energy front, inventories of crude continued to build but
no one seemed to care as gasoline supplies are the new worry.
And it was a report from a Goldman analyst that truly spooked
the markets as it touted a “super spike” in oil to $105. [Friday’s
record close was $57.27] Obviously should we see such a price
in the next year or two it would crush the economy, regardless of
how short-lived it proves to be.
Even OPEC is becoming somewhat concerned, not because of
the impact on the West but rather the damage high crude is
causing the developing world. The Philippines, for example, has
reduced the work week for its civil servants from 5 to 4 days to
save on its fuel bill.
And then there is real estate. This week’s bubble story comes
from the pages of the Los Angeles Times where we learn retirees
are cashing out their retirement plans and pouring it into real
estate. Geezuz, this is sad, knowing how badly it will end for
these folks.
Remember, the bubble isn’t just a U.S. story; it’s global, whether
we’re talking Britain, Spain, Australia, or China. And speaking
of China, the government issued a report containing the
following.
“Excessive growth in housing prices has directly undermined the
ability of (Shanghai) residents to improve their living standards,
affected financial and social stability, and even influenced the
health of the national economy.”
The government must pop the real estate bubble here with the
least amount of damage, a virtually impossible task in a still-
emerging market. Said one Chinese financial analyst:
“Social stability is already at stake in some places such as
Shanghai. Wage earners cannot afford houses, and hatred toward
richer property owners is growing.” [Bloomberg News]
Ah yes, the potential for civil unrest that has communist leaders
staying up at night.
And a few brief notes concerning the global economy in general.
France and Germany continue to slide into the abyss. This week
it was reported France’s business confidence was down to its
lowest level in 15 months while unemployment hit a 5-year high.
Germany’s unemployment rate hit another postwar high as well.
Meanwhile, Japan’s recovery appears to be history as business
confidence here fell, unemployment unexpectedly rose,
consumer spending dropped 4% in February from January and
industrial production declined.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and Nasdaq ran their losing streaks to four, off
0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, to 10404 and 1984, but the S&P
500 eked out a one-point gain to 1172.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.11% 2-yr. 3.73% 10-yr. 4.45% 30-yr. 4.72%
Bonds rallied across the board on renewed thought that the rate
of inflation won’t require much more tightening on the part of
the Federal Reserve. Inflation isn’t a problem and by year end I
maintain we will be talking of deflation as the global economy
slows significantly by then. But no doubt a lot will happen in
between and I will look very foolish at times. I also stick to my
prediction of 4.30% on the 10-year, 12/31/05.
–China’s apparel exports continued to soar in the second month
after the expiration of global limits, up 147% in the U.S. for the
month of February, year-over-year. [188% in Europe.] This
means that the U.S. and Europe, as well as others, can institute
“safeguard quotas” at any moment, even as China claimed it was
making progress in slowing the onslaught. [Ha!]
–The governor of the People’s Bank of China said China will not
revalue its currency to make exports less competitive. See
above. China knows it has to slow its economy but the flip side
is it must continue to generate new jobs or it risks massive
unrest.
–One stock in my estimation serves as a proxy for the state of
China’s economy, Australian natural resources giant BHP
Billiton (BHP). Yes, this is the company I cryptically wrote of
the past year, buying it at about $17 and selling it way too early
at $23 as I prepared for the bursting of the China bubble.
While it’s normally not my habit to comment on individual
holdings in terms of investment advice, let alone my own, BHP’s
action the past few weeks has been intriguing; including a decent
correction from the highs. Part of the movement is due to
company fundamentals, irrespective of China, but overall the
China angle can’t be ignored as BHP is a huge supplier to the
nation of all manner of industrial metals, coal, oil and gas. Just
something to keep in mind.
[I do not own any shares in BHP currently and have no plans to
purchase the stock the balance of the year.]
–I’ve been making a lot of comments over the years concerning
derivatives and how many of the people employing them just
aren’t that smart. There are two sides to every trade, after all. So
I pass along the first few lines of a story by Cris Prystay and
Darren McDermott of the Journal.
“China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp., the oil trader that ran up
US $550 million in losses last year trading derivatives, was way
out of its depth in the options market and lacked basic risk-
management controls, according to its investigative auditors.
“(The company) valued its crude-oil options incorrectly,
misunderstood the risks it was taking, ignored its own internal
controls and failed to report accurately its positions to
shareholders, PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a scathing report
released yesterday.”
See also Fannie Mae.
–This is disturbing. From the March 28 issue of Barrons.
Barron’s and IR, an investor relations magazine, conducted a
joint survey of over 2,000 analysts and portfolio managers from
all sides of Wall Street.
“A full 38% of the analysts reported ‘feeling shut out’ of a
company’s communications after a downgrade, with 6% of the
total saying companies had threatened to sever banking
relationships….”
“Among other things, bearish analysts reported being ‘iced’ on
conference calls by irate unidentified managements. They also
found managements sending ‘letters to our CEO questioning our
work, credibility, capability, and so on.’ Another said that
clients were denied meetings with company managers.”
As one fellow remarked, “Where’s that damn Eliot Spitzer when
you need him?”
–Finance makes up 30% of all corporate profits, in other words
from companies or their subsidiaries such as GMAC. That’s
why we say everyone is addicted to cheap money, both
individuals and corporations, and it’s been profitable to lend it
out. [Terry Keenan / New York Post]
–15 years ago hedge funds managed less than $40 billion.
Today it’s $1 trillion. [New York Times]
–General Motors’ March sales rose 2.7% thanks to an 8.4%
increase in truck sales. Ford posted a 1.7% decline while
DaimlerChrylser reported a 7.6 gain in U.S. sales. But, Toyota’s
U.S. sales increased 12% and Nissan’s were up 17%.
–DaimlerChrysler is recalling 1.3 million Mercedes for faulty
battery units and voltage regulators; another blow for the unit
where quality has been falling faster than Hank Greenberg’s
reputation.
–Real Estate bubble, part XXIX: The average sales price of a
condo in Manhattan rose 33.9% in the first quarter from the prior
one. [Yes, one quarter!] The average price for a co-op
apartment rose 15.5% to a record $988,000. The average price in
the luxury sector reached $4.53 million.
–The catastrophic explosion and fire at BP’s Texas City, TX
refinery that killed 15 two weeks ago may have been started by a
car ignition.
–What a mess Morgan Stanley CEO Philip Purcell has made of
his company. This guy has been a loser ever since he won the
power struggle following the merger of Morgan Stanley and
Dean Witter back in 1997. Now various factions want to hoist
him on a spike, especially after he brazenly fired the two most
popular executives in the firm for questioning his business plan
(or lack thereof). An old friend of mine who is a managing
director at MS confirmed morale is at an all-time low.
–Remember Peter Brant? I bet the name is familiar. Back in
1984, while with Kidder Peabody, Brant pled guilty to aiding
Wall Street Journal reporter R. Foster Winans of “Heard on the
Street” column fame in the latter’s efforts to trade on his own
stories. But now Brant has been fined $3 million by the SEC for
his role in a scheme that misappropriated client funds at
Deutsche Bank Securities between 1998-2000. You’d have
thought he would have been banned for life the first time.
–Business Week had a story concerning United Airlines and its
legal bills. The aircraft engineers union has filed objections with
the bankruptcy court over what it sees as out-of-control legal
expenses.
“One Kirkland (& Ellis) lawyer billed for 3,500 hours last year at
$540 an hour – the same as working 9.6 hours a day, 7 days a
week, all year.”
The judge rejected the union’s complaint as not specific enough.
–AIG’s chief auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, has been
running a series of ads touting the need for a “Chief Courage
Officer” in Corporate America. Not exactly truth in advertising,
I think you’d agree.
–Back to AIG’s Greenberg, I was fortunate in my Wall Street
career to work for some terrific, and ethical, people who
represented the best on the Street. But the more I read of the
former AIG CEO the more I question why anyone would work
for this truly arrogant SOB who represents the very worst of the
human character. [And to his defenders, don’t begin to tell me
about his charity work.] If you’d have chosen to work for him
because you’d then have had an opportunity to make a lot of
money, well that’s your problem.
–MCI accepted a sweetened takeover offer from Verizon, but
then Qwest raised its own bid yet again and now MCI is back
negotiating with Qwest. Whatever.
–SunGard, a provider of information systems for the financial
services industry, agreed to the largest leveraged buyout since
RJR in 1989, around $10.5 billion by way of seven venture
capital firms.
–According to a report issued by the Presidents Council of
Advisors on Science and Technology, the U.S. has the lead in
nanotechnology with 50% of the papers published in the world’s
best scientific journals coming from the U.S., but Europe and
Asia are rapidly catching up. If the U.S. loses its lead in what
could be the next frontier, it will have a devastating effect on our
economy.
–Martha Stewart is upset her ankle monitoring device impedes
her ability to wear skirts. More importantly, shares in her
company have plummeted from $37.50 to $22.50 in the last five
weeks.
–Fund giant American Funds is in a heap of trouble as the SEC
is now examining the issue of ponying up for “shelf-space,” only
this time American may have violated “best execution” rules in
paying commissions to the brokerage firms that were too high in
exchange for fund sales. You’ll recall just last week American
had sued the state of California over its shelf-space investigation,
saying only the SEC had jurisdiction. Doh!
–Inflation watch: My property taxes are going up 7%. Those of
you who live in Middle America may get a kick out of the fact I
will now be paying over $9,000 in taxes for a townhouse…a
townhouse! Then again the appreciation on said property has
been even more outrageous.
–My portfolio: Commentator Ben Stein had a good piece in last
Sunday’s New York Times on common mistakes made by the
average investor, all under the theme “laziness is a curse.” Oh, I
can relate. Not to his point that you have to take the time to
study your brokerage statements for mistakes…I do that
religiously. But he also says, “Squeeze more income out of your
savings…If people would spend as much time looking for
higher-income securities as they do shopping for a car, they
could raise their returns in terms of income by two percentage
points a year.”
Folks, the biggest single mistake I have made over the past three
years, outside of selling this oil rally way too soon, was in being
lazy with my cash holdings while money markets were paying
zero. I had been in high yield bonds for a few years but moved
into cash at the worst possible time. A very costly mistake in
terms of return. So this week I’m penalizing myself. No
premium lager.
–Mother hens warn their chicks of two names as they grow
up…Colonel Sanders and Frank Perdue. Combined with a raised
cleaver, the mention of these two is enough to strike terror in any
chicken coop. Frank Perdue died this week at the age of 84.
Foreign Affairs
China / Taiwan: Up to one million demonstrated in the streets of
Taipei last weekend over Beijing’s anti-secession law. Many in
the crowd flew U.S. and Japanese flags to show their support for
the two who might come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an
attack. President Chen Shui-bian agreed not to give a speech
which would have further riled the commies.
But then Taiwan’s opposition KMT (Kuomintang – the
Nationalists) sent a delegation to Beijing where it was wined and
dined. The KMT has favored reunification since 1949 when its
founder Chiang Kai-shek fled the mainland, taking all the pottery
in the process.
India / Pakistan: The White House attempted to balance the sale
of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan by giving India large incentives,
including the ability to manufacture fighter jets in India while the
U.S. would share its nuclear know-how for civilian use. Of
course India didn’t like the sale to Pakistan but criticism was
muted.
However, when it comes to the topic of nuclear proliferation,
India correctly criticized the international community for failing
to prevent it, citing the double standards employed by the nuclear
powers, i.e., U.S. aid for Pakistan as the latter helps spread
nuclear secrets.
Israel: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won two key victories on his
Gaza withdrawal plans. There will be no referendum and Sharon
gained approval on a budget, thus preventing new elections that
would have placed the withdrawal in jeopardy.
Russia: Former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski
noted the following in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.
“A democratic geopolitical pluralism is beginning to surround
Russia. Because the new states are so much less powerful, this
environment in itself is incapable of seriously threatening Russia.
However, their example will inevitably reinforce pressures
within Russia for a similarly profound break with the
authoritarian and chauvinist tradition that still dominates the
Moscow political elites mindset.”
Oh, there may be a break all right, but it won’t be of the
democratic kind, Mr. Brzezinski. I noted last week the
increasing belief President Vladimir Putin will use the threat of a
serious Fascist candidate in the 2008 race to place himself back
before the people in order to save the country, and this week
Marsha Lipman, writing in the Washington Post, noted the
growing nationalist threat and the rise of the extremists. Ethnic
violence is on the increase (has been for years now) and one
thing that is fueling it is the experience of one million soldiers
who have served in the brutal Chechen War. Talk about
returning home all messed up…it’s these lads. There’s also a
theme in the nation these days and it’s “Russia is for Russians.”
Latin America: The Post interviewed Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice who had the following comments on the
nations south of the border.
Rice said there needs to be “‘a new focus in the hemisphere on
how democratic governments deliver better for their people.’
With corruption and growing gaps between the wealthy and poor
in terms of education and health care, she said the region is
increasingly susceptible to what she called a ‘kind of
demagoguery about class differences.’”
“‘In the hemisphere there’s a gap between economies that are
growing and the status of people, and it’s leading to fertile
ground for populism,’ Rice said. She added there are ‘very
strong signs’ that Venezuela…is interfering in the affairs of
Colombia and other countries.”
Last week I wrote the U.S. could be militarily involved in the
region, well beyond our present aid to Colombia, in the very near
future. Now there is increasing talk Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez
could stupidly launch an oil embargo against the U.S. That
would guarantee a military response, if Chavez didn’t relent in
short order.
Britain / IRA: “Week in Review,” 2/26/05. “The IRA has been
backed into a corner and a cornered rat is most dangerous. If I
lived in a major city in both the UK and the Irish Republic, I’d be
careful these next few months. While I wouldn’t expect (Gerry)
Adams or (Martin) McGuinness to order anything directly, it
could be beyond their control.”
Newsweek, 4/4/05: “Scotland Yard recently warned a London
business group that IRA ‘dissidents…are currently planning to
mount attacks on the U.K. mainland.’ …U.S. and British security
sources say IRA sleeper cells may already have planted
themselves in England in preparation for such attacks.”
Australia: In a survey of 1,000 Aussies, 68% say the government
takes “too much notice of the United States when setting its
foreign policy agenda and 57% judged U.S. foreign policy to be
as much of a threat as Islamic fundamentalism. [AP] Now I
don’t know anything about the polling firm and its legitimacy,
nor whether this was a survey of 1,000 people huddled around
Ayers Rock, but it is disappointing to this American. However,
it’s not a huge surprise when the poll also reveals only 46% favor
postwar involvement in Iraq. The war has never been popular
with Aussies and, heck, that’s about the same percentage as in
the U.S.
Overall, though, the poll is a reminder of (a) how fortunate the
Bush administration has been in having a stalwart partner like
Prime Minister John Howard who has made some very tough
choices, politically, at home and (b) how fragile any coalition in
the war on terror is. Howard is serving his last term. Who
comes after? Who eventually comes after Tony Blair? Who
comes after Japan’s Prime Minister Koizumi?
On the other hand, who follows President Chirac and Chancellor
Schroeder? I doubt they’ll be any worse. Who follows Putin?
[Who follows Bush, for that matter?]
You get the point. Today’s friend could be tomorrow’s thorn in
the side…and vice versa.
Canada: This nation has truly been a thorn in the side of the
United States over the years, especially with its recent lack of
cooperation on missile defense as exhibited by that pansy prime
minister, Paul Martin. Well Canada is about to get its
comeuppance in spades.
The world press is going to descend on the bloody waters
between Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick where the
largest baby seal hunt, ever, has just begun. Before it’s over
about 300,000 seals will be clubbed to death, pups stripped of
their fur. The first pictures are coming out and it’s as gruesome
as anything seen before.
Don’t get me wrong. I understand this is important financially
for the indigenous communities of these areas who suffered after
the wearing of furs fell out of favor, and the Canadian
government has a point when it says seals harm the fish stock,
but Ottawa better be ready to face the music. It’s holier than
thou image is about to get battered.
Zimbabwe: Elections were held Thursday and President Robert
Mugabe’s ruling party won a parliamentary majority. Of course
the vote was rigged, as best displayed by opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai.
“He cited the example of Manyame, 40 kilometers southwest of
Harare, where Mr. Mugabe’s nephew…was declared the winner.
Election officials announced Thursday night that 14,812 people
voted in that constituency. But early Friday, they changed the
total to 24,000 and said Mr. Zhawao got more than 15,000
votes.” [AP]
And just how good a job has Robert Mugabe done? The
economy has shrunk 50% in five years and unemployment is
70%. Other than this, everything here is hunky-dory.
Nigeria: Islamic clerics in the Muslim north have been preaching
against childhood vaccinations, like for measles, warning of an
American anti-Islamic plot. So thanks to these idiots hundreds of
children have died in the past month or so while in the Christian
south, where a vaccination program is in place, not one has
succumbed.
Random Musings
–I wasn’t even going to comment on former national security
adviser Sandy Berger and his flap with the National Archives;
that is until I saw he admitted he shredded documents relating to
the record of the Clinton administration and its efforts (or lack
thereof) on the terror front. Berger negotiated a plea agreement
with the Justice Department and it is no small deal, especially
considering he loses his national security clearance for three
years. Berger also lied all last summer when the issue of his
taking papers from the archives first arose. He’s a truly pitiful
character in every sense of the word. And to think of the
position of responsibility he once held, all part of the Clinton
legacy.
–I saw the following headline in the South China Morning Post.
“Some 100 million Chinese suffer depression”
Out of about 1.3 billion inhabitants I would have expected the
total to be more like 1.25 billion.
–Senator Jon Corzine formally announced his run for governor
here in New Jersey and no doubt Corzine will kick his
opponent’s butt…I’ll say 58-42. One local reporter tried to
describe Corzine as a “free spending liberal” and the senator just
batted it away. ‘Hey, it’s the Republicans who can’t control
spending these days’ and you know what? He has a point. It’s
amazing the Republicans can’t see what an issue they have given
the Democrats and President Bush deserves all the blame. Still
not one veto…an amazing lack of leadership.
–The U.S. Supreme Court ruled anyone aged 40 and over can
sue their employer for age discrimination, concluding that
employers may be held liable even if they intended no harm. Uh
oh. [But employers must only prove their actions were
motivated by “reasonable factors other than age.” Phew!]
–Did you see the PBS show on Krakatoa? What a superb piece
of television. It’s worth buying the video for the kids…go to
pbs.org.
–A few months ago I talked about the harmful effects using
dumb nicknames with your children can have on them. Now a
researcher at the University of Florida has concluded that
children with first names that have unusual spellings and
punctuations fare worse in school than siblings with more typical
first names.
Professor David Figlio said, “These results are consistent with
the notion that teachers and school administrators may
subconsciously expect less of students with names associated
with low socio-economic status…and these expectations may
possibly become a self-fulfilling prophesy.”
Watching the NCAA basketball tournament you come across
some idiotic names. Like Taquan Dean…which is pronounced
nowhere near like it reads. [Source: Richard Morin / Washington
Post]
–With the Terri Schiavo case, religion is once again at the
forefront of debate. Following are two comments.
Former Republican Senator John Danforth, an Episcopal
minister.
“When government becomes the means of carrying out a
religious program, it raises obvious questions under the First
Amendment. But even in the absence of constitutional issues, a
political party should resist identification with a religious
movement. While religions are free to advocate for their own
sectarian causes, the work of government and those who engage
in it is to hold together as one people a very diverse country. At
its best, religion can be a uniting influence, but in practice,
nothing is more divisive. For politicians to advance the cause of
one religious group is often to oppose the cause of another.”
[New York Times]
And from last Sunday’s “Meet the Press,” Democratic Senator
Joseph Lieberman.
“The mix of God and government, of religion and politics, is
quintessentially American, and it was there at the beginning.
The fact is that in the first American document, the Declaration
of Independence, the founders of our country said that they were
forming the new government to secure the rights to life, liberty
and the pursuit of happiness that they saw as the endowment of
our creator. So this government, this country was not neutral
about God right at the outset. One, accepting that there is a
creator, so our existence here is not accidental. And secondly,
that as a result of the creation, we have an inherent unity. We are
all equal. We have equal opportunity for those rights. We are a
country based on a vision, a belief in creationism. And part of
that is not only the humans, who were created on the sixth day,
but the natural Earth….
“And…faith-based movements across our history have created
some of the greatest progress…The abolitionists in the 19th
century; early 20th century, the great fights for social welfare,
child labor laws, all led by faith-based groups. And of course the
civil rights movement did the same. So…I say you can’t
separate God from America….We have to always remember that
the Constitution, in my opinion, promises freedom of religion,
not freedom from religion.
“Washington reminded us in his farewell address that religion in
a democracy is one of the sources of values we need, because in
a democracy the state won’t tell everybody what to do every
moment. And I think Democrats have to give broader witness to
that across the board, in dealing with poverty, in dealing with
justice, in dealing with protecting the environment. And you
know, the old Lincoln line, not to claim that God is on our side,
but to work very hard to prove that we’re on God’s side. That’s
what it’s all about.”
–Pope John Paul II was my own pick for “Person of the
Century” back in December 1999. As historian Norman Davies
once wrote, the Pope “undermined Communism by sheer force
of personality and his support for human rights…For the captive
peoples of the Soviet Bloc, he proved to be the steadiest beacon
of hope shining from the West.”
It was the Pope who took the position that Communism was evil
(making it easier for Thatcher and Reagan later on), and that the
world could no longer tolerate a system that crippled the human
spirit. Hundreds of millions are free because of the pope’s
actions and it is for this reason alone that I hope the young
people of the world are taught the true history of the man.
But as a Catholic I will also always remember his humanism; his
concern for the poor, the little people I’ve written so often of in
describing my own travels around the world. Oh, may the meek
inherit the earth some day.
I saw the pope a little over four years ago in Rome. What a sea
of love I witnessed. In my life I’ve been truly blessed.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $428
Oil, $57.27
Returns for the week 3/28-4/1
Dow Jones -0.4% [10404]
S&P 500 +0.1% [1172]
S&P MidCap +0.2%
Russell 2000 -0.6%
Nasdaq -0.3% [1984]
Returns for the period 1/1/05-4/1/05
Dow Jones -3.5%
S&P 500 -3.2%
S&P MidCap -1.0%
Russell 2000 -6.1%
Nasdaq -8.8%
Bulls 51.6
Bears 28.0
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
