[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Iraq
While 51% now believe the Bush administration deliberately
misled the public about Saddam and his WMD program, by a 53-
46 margin they nonetheless don’t feel it was a mistake to send
troops to Iraq. [USA Today / CNN / Gallup] The majority
doesn’t like the way it may have been played for chumps, but at
the same time it also recognizes just how critical it is to be able
to declare victory at some point.
That’s why the political process in Iraq, amidst the suicide
bombings, kidnappings and executions, must proceed and on this
front the outcome is still very much in doubt. August 15 is the
stated deadline for producing a constitution and while the Sunnis
returned to the drafting table after a brief absence, the issues of
under what law the people will be ruled as well as what manner
of autonomy will be granted the Kurds remain the biggest
sticking points.
Assuming a constitution is drawn up, the next step would be a
referendum in mid-October. Here is where it could get really
interesting (or hairy, take your pick). There are 18 provinces, of
which four have a Sunni majority. If three reject the constitution
by a 2/3s majority, it goes down to defeat. Last January, many of
the Sunnis stayed away from the polls selecting an interim
national assembly because they felt disenfranchised.
On the issue of the Kurds, I have been writing since before the
war started that the White House must respect the views of the
Turks. This week in London, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep
Erdogan said the following about the relationship with
Washington and recent attacks in Turkey committed by the PKK,
the Kurdish militia.
“At the moment…we do not see the efforts by the U.S. that we
expect to see. We have expressed our views to that effect to the
Americans. There is a limit to our tolerance.
“If a country, if a people are under threat, that country can do
what is necessary under international law. I do not need to name
any countries by name, but we would exercise that right in the
same way as any other country could, would and did exercise
that right.” [London Times]
In other words, the U.S. must prevent the Kurds from further
attacks across the border or Turkey has every right to go into Iraq
to smoke them out. This would be disastrous, but the White
House appears to be focused elsewhere.
As to other events on the terror front, the full details of the
bombing at Sharm el Sheik were not known when I went to post
last week. What now seems clear is Egypt could easily be the
scene of further destruction as 77-year-old President Hosni
Mubarak, an indirect target of the attackers, seeks his fifth, 6-
year term on September 7. For the first time he will actually
have an opponent.
The vote in Egypt coincides with the start of formal
disengagement by the Israelis from Gaza which is slated to
commence August 17. I have further details below but suffice it
to say, events in the region could be market movers, and for
probably all the wrong reasons.
Lastly, Britain is scrambling to rein in the Islamic extremism that
it let fester for so many years and despite the latest arrests, it is
far too soon to give the all clear. As Police Commissioner Sir Ian
Blair noted, his nation is very fortunate. The attempted attacks
of July 21 could have been deadlier than 7/7. It’s also amazing
to think back on all the plots that have been foiled since 9/11,
beginning with shoe-bomber Richard Reid and an incident I’ve
focused on, the plot in Singapore to take out a U.S. destroyer
based there along with the British and American embassies.
There were countless other attempts, both known and unknown,
that coupled with London, Madrid, Bali and the rest could have
presented us with a far darker picture than the one we see today.
A lot of it is the result of good, old-fashioned police work. A lot
of it is luck.
Wall Street
No doubt, July was a heck of a month for the equity markets and,
it would appear, the economy as well; though regarding the latter
we now await the official data. Until a late sell-off on Friday,
euphoria was creeping into the psyche of those invested in stocks
and it’s hard to argue when a Federal Reserve survey of regional
economic activity speaks of strong growth and tame inflation.
July was also a time when auto sales skyrocketed, perhaps to the
best monthly levels ever. As for our 3-legged stool – the
consumer, housing, and capital spending – business investment
appears to be picking up in earnest; which might be just in time
because housing is peaking.
Housing is peaking? How can that be when both new and
existing home sales hit all-time records in June? Simple. That
was June, not July, and there is increasing evidence, at least by
my reading of the situation, that some major markets (this week’s
prime example being the Washington, D.C. region…as reported
by the Washington Post) are clearly softening. Not a bursting of
the bubble, mind you, at least not yet. Instead we’ll hit my long
called for period of stagnation that will finally cool off the
consumer. But that’s also why the aforementioned business /
capital spending component is key, though corporate executives
are normally the ones most responsive to geopolitical events and
rapid changes in sentiment, as recent history has shown. August
is a critical month, starting with Iraq’s quest for a constitution,
ongoing talks with the North Koreans on the nuclear weapons
front, and Israel’s disengagement from Gaza.
One item that has been powering equities is corporate earnings.
No matter how you slice them, they’ve been solid; though if a
company hasn’t learned how to massage the books by now they
deserve any punishment meted out by the market for falling short
of expectations. As for guidance for the second half of the year
it has generally been good.
But since it’s the end of July that means Congress is in a rush to
get the hell out of town, which also means all kinds of legislation
is passed without Congress really having a clue what it’s voting
on….unless it pertains to their particular district.
And so it came to pass that in the fifth year of the Bush
Administration, our fearless representatives finally approved an
energy bill that is laden with subsidies for companies that don’t
need them, while a highway transportation bill was also passed
that is $30 billion over what the president originally said he’d
accept…but no worry, he’s itching to leave town, too.
As for the energy legislation, while no one in his right mind was
looking for a quick fix, because one is not to be found, there is
also no question the U.S. will continue to import substantially
more than 50% of its oil needs for decades to come. For its part
Big Oil gets major incentives to drill deeper. [“Keep drilling!”
“But, sir, we just hit China!”]
True, there are incentives to purchase hybrid cars but because
Congress failed to increase fuel-efficiency standards
(outrageous), these aren’t likely to be American. At least we’re
finally a step closer to resurrecting the nuclear power industry,
but even here completion of the first new plant since Three Mile
Island could be a decade away.
So the energy bill is a stop-gap and not a very good one at that.
All this time the White House had a majority in Congress to do
its bidding and we end up with basically more of the same. Oh
well, at least we get four more weeks of increased daylight!
Sadly, this is what the bill is likely to be best remembered for.
Lastly, just a follow-up on China’s minimal revaluation of the
yuan. You could see by the reaction this week that once people
had a chance to analyze the situation, it’s much ado about
nothing. To those who were seeking more of a move, soon,
China’s central bank put a kibosh to such talk, emphasizing
“gradualism.”
Bottom line, China still has a huge labor cost advantage.
However, one positive that could emerge is if other Asian nations
let their currencies appreciate in kind, which in turn may
stimulate more domestic demand. Here in America, we spend
every dime we have and then some, but Asians save every penny
as a general rule. Yes, it’s time for them to live it up a bit. Party
down.
Street Bytes
–With Friday’s losses, the major averages finished mixed on the
week. The Dow Jones lost 11 points, 0.1%, to close at 10640,
while the S&P 500 gained a fraction but was technically
unchanged at 1234. Nasdaq, however, extended its winning
streak to five, its best performance since Dec. ’03 / Jan. ’04. The
momentum is in tech, helped this week by the earnings out of
Texas Instruments and Amazon, to cite two examples. And of
course the energy sector reported stupendous profits.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.67% 2-yr. 4.01% 10-yr. 4.28% 30-yr. 4.47%
Bonds were going through the motions until Friday’s flash report
on 2nd quarter GDP, up 3.4%, coupled with a strong
manufacturing survey out of the Chicago district, led to renewed
fears the Federal Reserve was going to be hiking rates through
year end.
–There were conflicting reports as to whether or not CNOOC
was pulling out of its bid for Unocal. Regardless, on the larger
issue of China-owned energy companies going after U.S. assets,
I’ve already stated my own opposition many times over.
Similarly, former director of the CIA R. James Woolsey told the
Wall Street Journal’s Steve Lohr that “China is realistically
assuming there may be a shortage of oil” one day and “In China,
Mr. Woolsey sees a nation with military ambitions to challenge
the United States, and a political system with little regard for
human rights and free speech.” Former senior Defense
Department official Frank Gaffney Jr. adds “China’s strategy is
to supplant the United States as the premier economic power in
the world and, should it become necessary, defeat us militarily.”
It’s a no-brainer, but as I’ve been writing since CNOOC first
made its bid, this could not have been handled worse by both the
White House and the State Department.
–Exxon Mobil earned a cool $7.6 billion in the 2nd quarter. At
times like these I miss Carl Sagan as I picture him handling the
earnings releases for the energy behemoths. For Exxon,
however, production was down 4.3% from a year ago. Cost
cutting and the soaring price of oil have been behind the surge in
profits here the past few years, not because of any giant finds.
–A Merrill Lynch study estimated that the 70 largest companies
involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas
will generate net income of $230 billion on revenues of $2.6
trillion in 2005.
–Congress will take up drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge after Labor Day; another case of dithering for years
before acting, one way or the other.
–British Petroleum had its second big fire in four months down
at its Texas City, Texas, facility, though unlike the last time there
were no reported injuries. Back in March, 15 were killed and
170 injured which led to BP having to set aside $700 million to
compensate victims. The Wall Street Journal, prior to
Thursday’s fire, laid out a pattern of “gross negligence” at Texas
City and other BP facilities.
–What a joke. Just last year President Bush was threatening to
veto a highway bill in excess of $256 billion. Now he’ll trumpet
one in the neighborhood of $286 billion. Yes, there will be lots
of jobs as a result, as well as countless instances where you sit in
traffic, stewing, as three lanes go to one with nary a worker in
sight.
–General Motors is scrapping its employee discount program for
a new ‘everyday-low-prices’ campaign. The competition is
going to have to follow as both dealers and profit margins suffer.
GM also announced it was selling $55 billion in car and truck
loans to Bank of America over the next five years in an effort to
shore up its credit status following the recent downgrade to
“junk” by S&P and Fitch.
–DaimlerChrysler CEO Jurgen Schrempp, not to be confused
with former NBA star Detlef Schrempf (the latter was a far better
performer), is being forced out of his job for dragging the
automaker down and taking the Mercedes Benz brand with it.
–The Wall Street Journal asked energy policy expert Amory
Lovins, “Why are Detroit’s auto makers in such trouble today?”
“Their industry is at the mercy of oil prices which they can’t
control but which their technology and marketing choices have
substantially contributed to increasing. And they have such
weak balance sheets that each of the Big Three can afford only
one bet, which is already placed, where Toyota has enough
money to bet on everything – and has. The bad joke in Detroit
has long been, ‘We make cars so we can loan the people the
money to buy them.’
“To be sure, some of the burdens are not of their own making –
notably health care for their employees and retirees. But the Big
Three have not been as bold and visionary as some of their
competitors, particularly in Japan. I hope that the depth of their
problems will now bring them to the kind of technological
breakthroughs of which they’re capable.”
–By one Federal Reserve estimate, the debt burden for the
average American family is the highest since records started
being kept, 1980, when taking into consideration mortgage and
consumer debt.
–From Ruth Simon, Wall Street Journal.
“In one recent move, Chase Home Finance, a unit of J.P. Morgan
Chase & Co., this spring began allowing some of its customers to
take out home-equity loans and lines of credit without having
their incomes verified. Under the new program, income
verification isn’t required for home-equity loans of up to
$200,000, provided that the borrower’s total mortgage debt
doesn’t exceed 90% of the property’s value or $1.5 million.”
–The average house price in the UK is at its lowest level since
November 2003.
–Citigroup’s Sandy Weill decided it was best to stick around and
fulfill his contract, through April 2006, recognizing to do
otherwise would hurt his legacy, which is pretty poor to begin
with no matter how pleased some long-time shareholders may
be.
–The House passed the Central American Free Trade Agreement
by the narrowest of margins, 217-215, as the White House
twisted the arms of some congressmen so hard it had them crying
for their mothers. The future of other trade initiatives is in
danger, particularly since only 15 Democrats backed this
legislation, while Republicans who supported it are scared to
death how it will be viewed by the electorate back home.
–The AFL-CIO, together since the mid-1950s when 1 in 3
private-sector workers belonged to a union, is breaking up with
unions representing 1/3 of the organization’s 13 million members
leaving to start the “Change to Win Coalition.” Overall, only 8%
of American workers are unionized these days.
–The 2nd quarter results are in for the Big Four Internet plays –
Google, Yahoo, eBay and Amazon – and across the board they
were super. Google and Yahoo, however, missed frothy
estimates and their share prices suffered, while eBay and
Amazon exceeded and the stocks soared. Amazon was this
week’s story as revenue rose 26% for the quarter. Heck, I’m
doing a lot more business with it than I ever did . But I
continue to have big problems with the valuations in all four.
–Meanwhile, online directory services operator InfoSpace, a
one-time high-flyer, supplied poor guidance for future quarters
and its shares plummeted 30% in a single day.
–The price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange has risen
from $950,000 in January to $2.6 million today thanks to the
merger with Archipelago that will securitize seatholders’
investments.
–Remember the Parmalat fraud where the Italian dairy giant
collapsed when $17 billion magically disappeared from the
books? Prosecutors in Milan are seeking indictments of the
investment banks that advised and misled investors during the
period leading up to the late 2003 bankruptcy, including
Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley.
–Samsung’s chairman and vice chairman are enmeshed in a
massive bribery scandal in South Korea. Evidence includes tons
of audio tapes as politicians were bribed…not that this is a
particularly unusual occurrence in this country or elsewhere.
–Sony cited falling prices among the reasons for lowering its
outlook for future earnings. Separately, New York Attorney
General Eliot Spitzer announced a $10 million settlement with
Sony BMG Music as a result of an investigation into payola and
the music industry, a practice Spitzer said is “pervasive.” Others
will be forced to pay up before this is over.
–Intel announced it is investing another $4 billion in Israel for a
chip plant. The company already employs 6,000 here.
Meanwhile, Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals is acquiring Ivax
in a bid to become the world’s largest producer of generic drugs.
–Among the few money managers I truly respect is Robert
Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors and I saw the other day in
Investment News that he is holding 35% cash in his flagship FPA
Capital Fund because he just doesn’t see a lot of opportunities.
“Our operating theme here is preservation of capital.”
–Candy King Mars unveiled research that purports to prove
cocoa compounds could aid in treating diabetes and vascular
disease, “synthesized flavanols.” Flavanols also occur in foods
such as green tea, red wine and tomatoes. But now Mars’ chief
science officer is claiming “We are in a position that none of us
could ever have dreamed of. We have a valuable asset that’s not
just about food, it’s about the pharmaceutical sector.” [Financial
Times] In other words, development of a line of cocoa-based
prescription drugs is the goal. The study was conducted in
conjunction with scientists at Harvard and UC Davis.
–Wendy’s announced a broad restructuring that will include
selling off 15% to 18% of its Tim Hortons donut chain, as well
as other assets and a share buyback. The move was applauded
and shares rose 10% on Friday.
–My portfolio: I purchased a little more of my carbon fiber play
though it had a poor week and I’m still roughly 85% cash. More
details on my thinking next time.
Foreign Affairs
North Korea: One of the advantages of President Bush not
having to run for reelection is you would hope the administration
truly does the right thing, but at this moment, as has been the
case the last five years, what this is when it comes to North
Korea is anyone’s guess.
The new round of six-party talks on Kim Jong il’s nuclear
weapons program began this week and the North’s chief delegate
said the “important thing is to make real progress in de-
nuclearizing the Korean peninsula. To that end, the parties
concerned need to eventually remove the threat of a nuclear war
from the Korean peninsula and to have a firm political will and a
strategic decision to realize the de-nuclearization of the Korean
peninsula.”
Of course Washington denies there are nukes positioned in the
South, while Pyongyang is also demanding the U.S. give up
plans to topple the regime before it will dismantle any of its own
missiles. The White House insists on verifiable disarmament
before Kim is rewarded in any fashion.
China: I urge you to check out my latest “Hott Spotts” column
on the potential for a global pandemic related to the current bird
flu issue that has created much cause for concern. But following
is a story from the South China Morning Post by Josephine Ma.
Warning: It’s disgusting.
“Pigs infected with a deadly bacteria have been dug up and sold
for human consumption…
“The World Health Organization is calling for a major
investigation into why the common pig-borne bacteria has so far
killed 27 people. [Ed. the total is now over 30.] Infections from
the streptococcus suis outbreak in Ziyang and Neijiang cities of
Sichuan province have risen to 131…
“While the government has tried to assuage fears and pledged
strict measures to prevent infected pork from entering the
market, the Chongqing Evening News yesterday revealed that
people were digging up dead pigs and selling them.
“It said the police found two dead pigs and a sick one on a
tricycle last Sunday – bought by pig vendor Chen Ping for 50
yuan each. They ordered Mr. Chen to bury the pigs, which he
did.
“But the following day he dug them up and sold them in another
town for 480 yuan.
“The newspaper said there was a large group of pig vendors in
the area who collected the dead pigs, also digging up some that
had been buried, and resold them.”
Well, with habits like this, it’s no wonder some of us believe a
pandemic is inevitable.
Meanwhile, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is upset that
opposition parties are holding up a $15 billion arms budget.
“They can’t put individual and party interests above the country,
the people, and especially above national security, just because
they are in opposition….If we (had formed) a new collective
national identity…we would not have seen the bizarre
phenomenon in which the opposition leaders would rather prefer
to meet the leader from the other side than the leader of their own
country.” [Reuters]
Chen’s remarks come on the heels of the Pentagon’s report that
China’s rapidly modernizing army poses a grave threat.
And then there is China’s relationship with Zimbabwe. President
Robert Mugabe was hailed by Beijing for his “brilliant
contribution” to diplomacy and international relations, as China
continues to court those shunned by the West. China is after
Zimbabwe’s platinum and coal reserves, but what most concerns
the U.S., U.K. and others is China’s veto on the UN Security
Council that could preclude any action being taken against
Mugabe.
Iran: It’s been awful quiet on this front but don’t you know the
nation’s scientists are busy little beavers as they hone their
nuclear weapons skills. And the leadership announced it would
restart activities at a disputed plant in Ishafan for the purpose of
converting uranium into gas, a key step in the weapons process,
regardless of any progress in talks with the Euro-3…Germany,
France and Britain.
Israel: The week got off to a bad start when Palestinians
launched a brazen attack that killed two Israelis in Gaza hours
after Secretary of State Rice had praised Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas. But with disengagement from Gaza and parts
of the West Bank just weeks away, Israel’s concerns are just as
focused on Jewish extremists as they are on Palestinian militants.
As reported by Barbara Opall of Defense News:
“Nightmare scenarios envisioned by the military and the Shin
Bet internal security service include shootings, bombings,
hostage-taking by resisters who barricade themselves in booby-
trapped strongholds, and attempts to assassinate Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon or members of his government.”
“ ‘It’s hard for people to understand that there is a small but very
dangerous number of Jewish ultra-extremists who have no
qualms about killing fellow Jews,’ Avi Dichter, the recently
retired Shin Bet director, said recently, adding ‘These radical
hardliners are sure there are two main ways to block the
disengagement. One is to attack the mosques on the Temple
Mount and the other way is by attacking the prime minister.’”
Of particular concern is the West Bank settlement of Sa-Nur
where by the end of August some residents expect 10,000 to
20,000 to join what one acknowledges could devolve into armed
guerrilla warfare.
Finally, Israel and the Vatican exchanged harsh words this week
over last Sunday’s sermon in which Pope Benedict XVI prayed
that God would stop the “murderous hand” of terrorists who had
struck “Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Great Britain.” Israel was upset the
July 12 suicide bombing in Netanya was omitted. The Vatican
issued a terse statement in reply saying the pope was referring to
attacks in “recent days.” Both sides could probably use a time
out.
India: Just a horrible week for this nation as a record 37 inches of
rain fell in 24 hours, swamping Bombay (Mumbai), while much
of the rest of the nation suffered under far greater monsoons than
normal. The infrastructure in the Bombay area is a shambles,
hundreds have died, disease from contaminated water and
overflowing sewers is an issue, and it will take a very long time
to get back to normal. Then there was the fire on a key offshore
oil platform that claimed at least 11 lives and knocked out a
substantial portion of India’s daily energy supply.
Russia: The last few weeks there has been a gathering northwest
of Moscow of the Nashi, a pro-Kremlin youth movement. As
Russian affairs expert Masha Lipman wrote in the Washington
Post, “they worked out and heard lectures by Kremlin
propagandists calling upon them to be tough against Russia’s
enemies….It’s a rather weird outfit, with undertones of Hitler
Youth and the Soviet Komsomol, but it does serve to clarify one
important fact: The Kremlin today has huge advantages over the
Russian public in political initiative, funds, organizational
capacity and other resources.”
Typical of the kinds of lectures the Nashi heard was one from the
leading spokesman of the Russian Orthodox Church, Vsevolod
Chaplin, who warned that an Orange Revolution in Russia would
lead to bloodshed.
“Russia has already lived through one colored revolution – a red
one. Russia will not survive a new revolution. If the country
breaks apart, it will become not a mass of little Switzerlands, but
one big Yugoslavia torn by bloody chaos, which no foreign
peacekeepers will be able to control. The defense of the
country’s unity, its independence and its spiritual freedom must
be the business of all society and every one of us.” [Moscow
Times]
So much for the separation of church and state. The Orthodox
Church has long been involved in Russian politics and it is
announcing it is ready and able to do President Vladimir Putin’s
bidding. To me it’s also but another clue that Putin is staying
beyond 2008.
And then there is the case of former prime minister Mikhail
Kasyanov, who returned to Moscow despite charges levied
against him while out of the country that he had used his
influence to purchase property on the cheap. Kasyanov:
“I have no doubt that a systematic, wide-ranging, slanderous
campaign aimed at discrediting me, based on lies and
fabrications, is part of the authorities’ wider strategy of
completely clearing the political field. The results of putting
such a strategy into practice are obvious – the authorities are
losing touch with their people, citizens’ uncertainty about their
future is growing, economic growth is slowing amid record-high
export prices and Russia’s authority is steadily declining in the
world.” [London Times]
Kasyanov, who has been thinking of running for president in
2008, is not a great candidate due to a variety of factors,
including his past ties to Boris Yeltsin, but his words are yet
another sign of coming attractions in this country.
Northern Ireland: Perhaps I’m too close to the situation here to
be doing cartwheels at the IRA’s announcement it would disarm
and use the political process to promote its goals. Of course it’s
a good thing, but remember: First, regardless of the move to
dismantle its weaponry, the bad blood between the extreme
Catholic and Protestant factions is incredibly deep-seated, thus
any progress will be slow and, second, many members of the
IRA’s provisional wing are nothing more than hardened
criminals, drug dealers, and murderers. These men are not about
to reform their ways. Sinn Fein leaders Gerry Adams and Martin
McGuinness, themselves with highly questionable pasts, have
their work cut out for them.
[One interesting sidelight. As of today there are still more
British troops in Northern Ireland than in Iraq. At least this
dynamic will change for the better as the military should be able
to withdraw vast amounts from the North once the IRA’s true
intentions become clearer.]
Philippines: As President Gloria Arroyo hangs on, a new survey
here showed 75% want her out.
Random Musings
–I do not believe the American people will put up with bag
searches for mass transit, after an initial period of cooperation,
unless authorities start profiling. The current situation is absurd.
In New York, for example, transit police are forced to keep a log
to make sure their searches are random in order to prevent the
ACLU or any other group from taking them to court.
–The Star-Ledger continues to write of the danger posed by
chemical plants and rail cars here in New Jersey, both of which
are often unprotected. Many of the rail cars, for example, are
just a few hundred feet from the Turnpike where a shoulder-fired
missile could easily take out a chlorine gas tank, imperiling
hundreds of thousands.
–In researching my piece on bird flu, it suddenly hit me. Not
only do our Canadian geese defecate all over our open spaces
and waterways, but we have millions of these so-called wild
birds that are the perfect carriers, historically, for any bird flu
that migrates here. The geese need to go. Hopefully they’ll just
turn themselves in for being illegal immigrants. Otherwise we
turn to plan B.
–What an embarrassment NASA has become. Hey, I know “it’s
hard work” as they keep reminding us, but this latest tile episode
would be laughable were it not so dangerous, both for those on
board and for our national prestige. And on a different note,
you’d think after four decades the media would stop broadcasting
the ‘wakeup music’ our astronauts receive. Geezuz, use the
airtime for something more productive. I have a picture of a lone
NASA staffer spending their entire day trying to figure out what
to play next. “Boy, I’m so clever!” Just use a clock radio and
have it set to the news. Or traffic and weather on the 8s.
–New York Governor George Pataki announced he will not seek
a 4th term. I don’t know one resident of the state, outside of a
political consultant or two who earned a living off him, who
gives a damn. This guy left the state Republican Party in a
shambles and upstate New York remains a backwater during a
time when economic progress was registered in just about every
other region of the nation.
–A USA Today / CNN / Gallup survey revealed that 25% of
those responding had no idea who Karl Rove was. I’d say that
figure is light but I’m assuming the pollsters don’t go onto inner-
city playgrounds to ask folks there. By a 49-31 margin people do
feel Rove should resign. I say it’s tough to give an opinion when
you don’t have all the facts.
–Sir Richard Doll died at the age of 92. Doll graduated from
medical school in the UK back in 1937 and as a researcher he
was given the task of finding out why the number of lung cancer
diagnoses had been rising sharply. Initially he focused on car
exhaust fumes, but soon began exploring a possible link to
cigarette smoking. Someone had to be first. In this case it was
Dr. Richard Doll and his work saved tens of millions of lives.
–A clown is the 4th-highest paid entertainer in Russia, which
tells you everything you to need to know about this place.
–Word is out this morning that Arnold Palmer has finally played
his last professional round. He will forever remain my favorite
athlete.
–Finally, for you World War II buffs out there, I just saw a good
review of a new flick, “The Great Raid,” that tells the true story
of a group of Army Rangers who free 500 POWs in the
Philippines. Catch it.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $435
Oil, $60.57…first weekly close above $60
Returns for the week 7/25-7/29
Dow Jones -0.1% [10640]
S&P 500 +0.0% [1234]
S&P MidCap +0.7%
Russell 2000 +0.3%
Nasdaq +0.2% [2184]
Returns for the period 1/1/05-7/29/05
Dow Jones -1.3%
S&P 500 +1.8%
S&P MidCap +8.6%
Russell 2000 +4.3%
Nasdaq +0.4%
Bulls 55.9
Bears 22.6 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Note: I’m treating myself to a brief vacation the next few days
(i.e., I hope to be out of touch with the real world as much as
possible) and while I will post comments at the regular time next
Saturday, they will be minimal and mainly for the purposes of
maintaining the archives on the market front.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
