[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Iraq
President George W. Bush attempted to buck up the American
people when it comes to the war in Iraq, but by the end of the
week his effort had failed thanks in no small part to the killing of
10 U.S. Marines near Fallujah in a single attack. Iraq has never
been more confusing than it is today as there is a rush from all
sides to present their best case before the Dec. 15 vote. Here is
my shot at the truth.
President Bush said nothing new in his speech at Annapolis. He
cited progress in building up an Iraqi security force, admitting
the U.S. has “faced setbacks.” And he said it “will take time and
patience,” while his bottom line remains the same:
“We will stay as long as necessary to complete the mission. If
our military leaders there tell us we need more troops, I will send
them…America will not run in the face of car bombers and
assassins.”
But the fact is we are preparing to do just that, leave, as Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice, now fully in charge of Iraq policy,
has already stated in so many words. And it’s not as if we really
have a choice. The Iraqis themselves don’t want us there. We
lost our window of opportunity long ago and we let the situation
get too far out of control to then be able to rein in all the
disparate forces aligning against the coalition, and each other.
Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman, in an op-ed for the Wall
Street Journal, is one still trying to rally the people in defining
what we’re up against.
“It is a war between 27 million and 10,000; 27 million Iraqis who
want to live lives of freedom, opportunity and prosperity and
roughly 10,000 terrorists who are either Saddam revanchists,
Iraqi Islamic extremists or al Qaeda foreign fighters who know
their wretched causes will be set back if Iraq becomes free and
modern. The terrorists are intent on stopping this by instigating a
civil war to produce the chaos that will allow Iraq to replace
Afghanistan as the base for their fanatical war-making. We are
fighting on the side of the 27 million because the outcome of this
war is critically important to the security and freedom of
America. If the terrorists win, they will be emboldened to strike
us directly again and to further undermine the growing instability
and progress in the Middle East, which has long been a major
American national and economic security priority.”
Senator John McCain has of course echoed a similar refrain. But
as a supporter of this war since day one, and a critic of the post-
war phase from virtually the moment Saddam was toppled, I
myself have never been more discouraged. And what gets me is
some heretofore rational voices, such as Fareed Zakaria of
Newsweek, are actually now way too optimistic. Zakaria came
back from Iraq and didn’t write one word of the militias who are
really calling the shots today.
For starters, you have Shia firebrand Moqtada al-Sadr, who I
wrote in May 2004 should have been taken out when we had the
opportunity. Ret. Lt. Col. Ralph Peters best describes al-Sadr as
“the Shia gangster.” He has his Mahdi militia.
Then there is the head of the most powerful political party,
Abdul Aziz Hakim, who told the Washington Post the U.S. is
tying his hands in the battle against the insurgents. Hakim wants
more firepower for his Badr Brigades, who along with the Mahdi
militia are suspected of kidnapping, murder and torture. Hakim
also wants to create a federal region in the oil-rich Shia south.
Ah yes, the breakup of the country into the equally oil-rich
Kurdish north, the energy-rich south, and the Sunni wasteland in
the central region. This is looking more and more likely and just
this week the Kurds were forced to come clean on new drilling
for oil on their lands. One problem, they didn’t tell the central
government about it first. You’ll recall that the parties agreed on
a constitution only because of a provision whereby the oil
revenues were to be shared by all the people; the Sunnis chief
concern.
But you won’t hear the White House talk openly about any of
this. Or the fact that when you discuss the ‘budding’ Iraqi army,
just what is it they will be defending following the Dec. 15 vote?
And, just as importantly, how do we keep the terrorists and
insurgents from infiltrating all the security branches? Clearly,
many of the casualties the U.S. and its allies are taking is due to
inside intelligence on pending maneuvers. And on the key issue
of arming the Iraqis with better weapons to aid in the fight
against the insurgents, of course the Pentagon is reluctant to do
so when much of it could fall into the hands of the militias,
Zarqawi and al Qaeda. But the legitimate Iraqi forces don’t
stand a chance without it. Don’t look for the president to reflect
on this either.
In fact, one can’t help but wonder if President Bush really
reflects on any of this. As for yours truly, I hope for a miracle
that the national assembly that emerges from the election
produces some heroic, transformative figures that can convince
the Iraqi people to reject the extremists. But there are no such
voices that I can see. I always thought Iyad Allawi had the
potential to be such a man, but the U.S. has helped to marginalize
him.
The New York Times’ David Brooks wrote a piece addressing
the “atmosphere of exhaustion” around the world these days and
how the “pendulum swings from engagement to cynicism.”
“The chief cultural effect of the Iraq war is that we are now
entering a period of skepticism. Many Americans are going to
be skeptical that their government can know enough to
accomplish large tasks or be competent enough to execute
ambitious policies. More people are going to be skeptical of
plans to mold reality according to our designs or to solve the
deep problems that are rooted in history and culture. They are
going to be skeptical of our ability to engage with or understand
faraway societies in the Middle East or Africa or elsewhere.
“In theory, skepticism leads to prudence, not a bad trait. But
when it is tinged with cynicism, as it is now, skepticism turns
into passivity. In skeptical ages, people are quick to decide that
longstanding problems, like poverty and despotism, are
intractable and not really worth taking on. They find it easy to
delay taking any action on the distant but overwhelming
problems, like the deficits, that do not impose immediate pain.
They find it easy to dawdle on foreign problems, like Iran’s
nuclear ambitions, rather than confronting them.
“As the Harvard economist Benjamin Friedman has observed,
Americans begin social reforms when they are feeling confident,
not when they are weary and insecure.
“Already the resolve to rebuild New Orleans and seize the post-
Katrina moment has dissipated. The bipartisan desire to do
something ambitious about energy policy is going nowhere.
Even the problem of Darfur evokes little more than sad sighs and
shrugs.
“What’s at stake in Iraq is not only the future of that country, but
the future of American self-confidence. We may have to endure
a cycle of skepticism before we can enjoy another cycle of
hope.”
Friends, I’m deeply entrenched in my own cycle of skepticism,
and to say the future of the world is anything but bleak requires a
leap of faith I’m not prepared to take.
Wall Street
[Well, let’s see if we have any more readers after the above, shall
we?]
The late, great comedy team of Bob and Ray used to have an
attorney character that “defended the defenseless.” In the end he
invariably gave up after a bumbling defense. “Well, I did the
best I could but you’re defenseless,” he’d say as the defendant
was led away, incredulous.
I can’t help but feel this way myself these days because a year
ago, in issuing my 2005 forecast, I said by the end of the year we
would be in the midst of a significant slowdown, recession would
be imminent, and that ‘de’flation, not inflation, would be the
watchword for ‘06.
Pretty tough to defend this scenario these days. GDP for the 3rd
quarter was just revised upward to 4.3%, consumer confidence is
returning, post-Thanksgiving sales were solid (so we were told),
manufacturing is picking back up, employment is strong, most
strategists are calling for earnings to keep on registering double-
digit gains until the end of time; what’s not to like? The U.S.
economy has had to deal with hurricanes, an energy price shock,
further rate hikes, Iraq, Terrell Owens and a floundering
presidency and yet the equity market, save for a mixed
performance this week, has been “off to the moon, Alice!”
So I’m hiding in my bunker, Chex Mix running low, and I’ve
been thinking of raising the white flag of surrender.
But then I looked more closely at some of the data, stared at the
world map that hangs over the computer in my main office, and
thought, “Wait a minute. Now’s not the time to give up!” I’m
just going to be off by six months or thereabouts. So I took my
change to Coin Star and replenished my supplies.
For starters, it is highly significant that natural gas is almost back
to $14 ($13.90) after touching $11 at the beginning of the week.
And crude oil and gasoline have been headed back up. Here we
all thought we were getting a big break in time for the holidays
(and in truth we probably did due to the billing cycle), but
homeowners and businesses could yet get crushed if natural gas
remains around this level…let alone spikes higher.
And let’s look at the post-Thanksgiving weekend more closely.
Visa said credit card sales for Friday-Saturday were up 11% and
the National Retail Federation, a bunch of overpaid lobbyists,
reported sales were up 22% over a year ago. No freakin’ way.
Meanwhile, Shopper Track countered Black Friday sales were
merely flat, while when the retailers themselves reported overall
numbers for November, they came in at less than a 3%
increase on average. Plus anecdotal evidence collected by LT
and me at some of the major retailers Saturday and Sunday
revealed the stores to be empty. In other words, I stand by my
feeling this Christmas season will be so-so at best.
Then there’s housing. On Monday the figures for existing home
sales were released and they were down 2.7% in October; with
inventories of unsold homes continuing to rise. But the next day,
new home sales for the same month were said to have risen 12%,
with, get this, 43% and 47% gains, year-over-year, in the
Northeast and West, respectively. Get out of here. Any rational
person knows some junior analyst was ticked off at his boss and
said, “I’ll show him for not giving me a raise” as he then
proceeded to plug in some crazy figures. “Ha!” he mused when
finished pressing ‘Send,’ as he then turned off the lights and
went home to work on his resume.
Housing has peaked, sports fans. Peaked. That doesn’t mean the
sector rolls over just yet, but it will and I always said this would
be in 2006.
The danger is that housing accounted for 36% of private-sector
payroll job growth from 11/01 to 10/05. And, broadly defined, it
represents 9.7% of total employment these days. [Sources:
Northern Trust, Mark Zandi, New York Times] Plus, I’m not
even mentioning the wealth-effect on a more individual basis.
Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel told the Times’ Gretchen
Morgenson, “We have a very accident-prone economy…the
most highly leveraged economy in the post-war period.” And
when housing does roll over, of course the consumer will
retrench in a big way.
But what of this little inflation scare that the gold bugs have us
all riled up over. First off, going back to my days at PIMCO, I
have listed the price of gold at the end of these reviews each
week for over 8 years, waiting for the day when it might matter.
Now that it’s over $500 ($508), though, for the first time since
1987 (Feb. 1983 at $509), I don’t know what to make of it. I do
know that some of my trader friends will be irritated when I say
inflation is tame, but as I’ve noted countless times before you
can argue until you’re blue in the face about government
statistics but at some point you have to rely on them. The
Federal Reserve does, after all.
Yes, healthcare costs and property taxes continue to soar, but key
core indicators of inflation say otherwise and that’s where I come
down.
Gold is rising for a number of reasons. Partly because it’s still
viewed as an inflation hedge, but also because central banks are
simply buying it to diversify some of their reserves, while
speculators are playing around and folks in India and China are
using some of their newfound wealth to purchase jewelry of all
kinds. Other metals such as platinum, copper and silver are also
hitting new highs. I will not be buying any myself, though,
because if the end of the world arrives I’m turning to a life of
crime instead……….Just kidding!
For now, let me wrap up by reiterating an old theme of
mine….this economy will at some point ‘flip.’ There doesn’t
necessarily have to be a major catalyst; the bursting of the
housing bubble, for example, doesn’t happen overnight.
But it could be one of my hot spots so conveniently ignored by
the masses of Wall Street pundits. Or avian flu could hit, for
real, in the spring when all the birds migrate back home to share
war stories and spit.
Street Bytes
–Stocks finished mixed. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell
fractionally to 10877 and 1265, respectively, while Nasdaq
stretched its winning streak to seven, the longest since December
1999. [Uh oh….and I just checked my own records…Nasdaq
had a separate six-week winning streak running right up to its
peak of 5048, 3/10/00. About a month later it fell 25%…in one
week!]
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.30% 2-yr. 4.43% 10-yr. 4.52% 30-yr. 4.72%
Rates rose across the board for the simple reason the strong
economic data leads the bond market to believe the Federal
Reserve will definitely keep hiking well into next year. The
question is how much higher than the current 4% on Fed Funds
does it go? Clearly at least two more rate hikes, but the market
has its eyes on Dec. 13 and the wording accompanying the
inevitable 25 basis point increase at that meeting for further
guidance. Core indicators on inflation may be tame, but the Fed
wants to make sure it stays that way and the latest survey of
regional economic activity was slightly worrisome in its
conclusion; that there is indeed some pricing power seeping into
the system.
Across the pond, the European Central Bank raised its own
benchmark for the first time in five years from 2% to 2.25%.
But here the move was made solely to shore up the ECB’s
credibility on the inflation fighting front and there is little reason
to believe it is embarking on its own Greenspanesque cycle of
rate hikes.
Finally, Mr. Greenspan gave two presentations on Friday about
deficits. We all know there is a big problem, long-term, unless
we begin to reduce them, particularly as the Baby Boomers’
entitlements hit the system. Plus there’s the ever-present issue;
when will foreigners finally cash in their chips, sell our bonds
and dollar, and invest elsewhere?
But these remain problems for tomorrow, at least from the
standpoint of a ‘week in review,’ and thus I’m not going to spend
a lot of time on them. When the inevitable crisis hits, I won’t be
one saying ‘I told you so.’ Instead, I’ll be more concerned with
beating you all to the door. “Every man and woman for
themselves,” will be my mantra.
–The U.S. auto sector continues to bleed as sales declined again
in November; GM down 8%, Ford off 15% and Chrysler
Group down 3%. But Toyota reported further gains of 13% and
Honda’s rose 8%. And of course Toyota plans on expanding its
North American operations. Heck, I’m on my third or fourth
Honda myself, and all were built in the U.S.
–Tokyo’s Nikkei index hit a five-year high this week, 15421, but
it’s record levels of foreign buying that are fueling Japan’s stock
market. The nation’s institutional investors are still net sellers.
–India’s economy grew 8% in the third quarter, while Hong
Kong’s is now slated to rise 7% for the full year…both better
than expected.
–Intel announced it is building a chip plant in Israel, a huge vote
of confidence here. Stare at a world map sometime. Which “hot
spot” has been the only real success story thus far in 2005? Yup,
Israel.
–Merck is laying off 7,000 and closing a number of
manufacturing facilities both here and abroad as part of a
restructuring plan that has investors less than thrilled.
–Wall Street’s gigantic bonuses will no doubt help ameliorate
any declines in the high-end real estate market in the New York
area, but there’s something else going on here and I imagine
across the country. In talking to some friends, and then reading
of local accounts, the school board and town budget meetings are
getting increasingly testy and downright ugly as property taxes
continue to soar at a far greater percentage than inflation or wage
growth; all part of the squeeze play.
–Related to the above, Manhattan’s employees have the highest
average weekly wages in the nation, but if they want to live in
the borough they need to shell out $600,000 for a 6’ X 10’ studio
apartment.
–Argentina’s finance minister, a man who has steered the
nation’s recovery from its 2001 default, was forced out after
arguing that some state contracts were overpriced. Recall that
Argentina’s President Kirchner is fast becoming a great buddy of
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.
–Harrah’s Entertainment is developing Slovenia’s first large-
scale casino resort, but it can’t use the Caesar’s name out of
deference to the fact the site borders Italy.
–Hanukkah starts Dec. 25, the 1st time since 1959 it begins on
this date; which means retailers catch a little post-Christmas
break.
–Former Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines received $40 million
in bonuses as a result of cooking the books, so says a suit filed by
Ohio’s attorney general. [Bloomberg News / New York Post]
–Last year, Indian casinos and bingo parlors took in $19 billion,
“quadruple the take on the Las Vegas Strip, according to Boston-
based Analysis Group. Indian gaming revenue also grew almost
twice as fast as commercial casino wagering, 12 percent
compared with 6.7 percent.” [Bloomberg News]
This is becoming an increasingly contentious issue, as
highlighted in the investigation into Washington lobbyist Jack
Abramoff and his ties to the Indian casino industry.
But Senator John McCain, who helped write the 1988 legislation
that allowed Indian tribes to run casinos in states that permitted
gambling, recognizes that the business is now going too far.
For starters, McCain has proposed that any such gaming be
restricted to a tribe’s home state. Why is this necessary, you
ask? It turns out some tribes, like the Eastern Shawnee Indians,
based in Oklahoma and Missouri, are now claiming their
ancestors were pushed off tribal lands elsewhere; in the
Shawnees’ case, Ohio. It’s absurd. [Oklahoma already has 85
gaming locations and the Shawnee are claiming their market at
home is saturated.]
Well, just a little personal anecdote. Back in the summer of
1978, I sold books door-to-door in Oklahoma and Kansas. The
first place I lived was Shawnee, OK, home to a large reservation.
So my very first day I boldly walked in and was invited into this
woman’s home. Sitting on the sofa, roaches all around, I sold
her everything I had. But I was rather naïve about the process
and collected a whopping $1 dollar for a deposit, with the
promise I’d receive the balance, something like $98, when I
returned with the books at the end of August. Needless to say,
she didn’t have the money then. And truth be told, while I stuck
it out the whole, brutal summer (it was over 100 degrees every
day, it seemed), I was the Southwestern Book Co.’s worst
salesman in history.
–Uh oh…from Crain’s New York Business.
“Some 30% of Harvard’s 2005 crop of MBAs took jobs on Wall
Street this year, and that is a signal to sell stocks, says former
securities industry analyst Ray Soifer. Mr. Soifer, a Harvard
alum, says history shows that when so many students are
interested in investment banking, trading, or private equity, the
stock market has peaked. He says the last time 30% of Harvard
MBAs headed to Wall Street was in 2000 – the eve of a brutal
bear market.”
–I just loved this piece of writing from the Journal’s George
Melloan.
“My neighbors Tom and Carol Phelan set out at 7 a.m. Friday
morning in search of bargains during post-Thanksgiving holiday
sales in the U.S., only to return empty-handed. The parking lots
at the malls were already jammed. Early birds had pounced on
the low-cost treasures supplied by the People’s Republic of
China for America’s Christmas joy.”
–If you’re traveling to Paris to blow some of your Wall Street
bonus, just know this. “In a five-star case of collusion, six of the
most prestigious luxury hotels in Paris were fined Monday for
running an illegal price-fixing cartel that at one point pushed
their room prices – already among the highest in the world – to
an average of more than 700 euro per night.” [International
Herald Tribune]
The six are Hotel de Crillon, the Four Seasons Hotel George V,
the Hotel Ritz, the Hotel Plaza Athenee, the Hotel Meurice, and
Hotel Le Bristol. Then again, if you have that much money why
would you care?
Foreign Affairs
Iran: The U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Khalilzad, has been given
permission by the White House to talk to senior officials in Iran’s
government, the first such high-level discussions since 1979.
Witness the total failure of our policy in Iran, this should have
occurred long ago. But now we have to deal with the likes of
Iranian President Ahmadinejad, who this week said the U.S.
“should be treated as war criminals” for using munitions with
depleted uranium. Unfortunately, there is some logic to his
point; that being how can the West seek to come down hard on
Iran’s nuclear program if it doesn’t stop this? [Just musing; there
is no actual comparison between the two, but that doesn’t
preclude many in Iran from believing the argument.]
Israel: And speaking of Iran, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said
Israel was preparing for the day Iran has nuclear weapons, but
Israel’s defense minister denied the country was considering an
attack on suspected facilities. Then Military Intelligence Chief
Farkash said it was clear that Israel would have to consider
taking military action against Iran, while a leading member of the
Knesset’s Defense Committee, Yuval Steinitz, said:
“In my years here, seeing the data I have seen, I feel it is clear
that Iran has passed the point of no return. It is accurate to say
that unless Iran encounters a major interference, it will have a
functioning nuclear arsenal within one or two years.” [Jerusalem
Post]
Meanwhile, long-time Labor Party leader Shimon Peres endorsed
Sharon, thus allowing the latter to position himself as a centrist.
Syria: The UN investigation into the assassination of Lebanon’s
Rafik Hariri will be extended beyond the current Dec. 15
deadline. Mehlis did interview some Syrian high officials in
Vienna recently, but has not as yet sat down with President
Assad’s brother-in-law, the key to the case by most accounts.
China: Watch Hong Kong on Sunday as a massive pro-
democracy protest is planned over China’s failure to live up to its
pledges on the electoral reform front. Plus, in ten days the World
Trade Organization holds a critical meeting in Hong Kong and
we know what these gatherings can bring.
But then you have the mainland’s mining industry. Over 160
were killed in yet another coal mine disaster. Coal-fired power
stations generate 70% of China’s electricity and there are big
incentives to get the stuff out of the ground. Safety, though, is
largely an afterthought. At least 6,000 were killed last year and a
similar number are likely to have died in ’05. Many believe this
number is actually low.
And if you’re concerned about human rights in China (safe
mining conditions are probably a human right as well), a
Connecticut-based foundation says six Catholic priests from
underground churches have been arrested and two were severely
beaten on Nov. 18.
Lastly, the Washington Post editorialized on the Communist
government’s pitiful response to the benzene spill in Harbin, as
well as what many perceive to be an inadequate information flow
on avian flu.
“(China’s) political system poses a menace to global health.”
Not for nothing, but democracy is taking a hit around the world
these days …
Zimbabwe: Under dictator Robert Mugabe, GDP has declined
from $8.4 billion to $4.3 billion in 7 years and life expectancy is
down to 33 years. The political opposition is in total disarray
and there is no immediate threat to Mugabe’s power, unlike two
years ago. Of course five years ago the West should have taken
Mugabe out and I repeat a theme from long ago for my new
readers: Had we done so, Osama bin Laden may have thought
twice about pulling off 9/11.
Burma: 1991’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and democracy activist
Aung San Suu Kyi has had her house arrest extended another 12
months. This is a travesty.
Venezuela: Five opposition parties here have pulled out of
Sunday’s legislative elections, citing fraud in the voter
registration process as well as rigged electronic voting machines.
President Hugo Chavez, who currently has a narrow majority in
the National Assembly, is now likely to garner more than 2/3s of
the seats; making it a cinch for him to keep extending his term.
Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel weighed in on the
opposition’s move. “They knew they were going to be defeated.
Fine, they can go to hell then.” [Financial Times]
And then you have…
Bangladesh: This week at least two suicide bombers killed nine
others and there were follow-on attacks by militants seeking to
overthrow the judicial system as part of a plan to have a Sharia-
based Islamic state. So while we’re looking at Iraq as being a
potential base for terrorists should we fail in our efforts there,
perhaps we should be looking to Bangladesh as well…not that
there is anything we can do about it.
But there was a bit of good political news this week…
Saudi Arabia: For the first time, women stood as candidates in
the Kingdom and two won, businesswomen who were elected to
the board of Jeddah’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. With
only 100 women in a body of 3,880, that meant many men had to
vote for them.
And then there’s…
Egypt: The current round of parliamentary elections has been
marked by violence, but nonetheless the Muslim Brotherhood
(which isn’t allowed to use the name…so the candidates run as
independents) has captured far more seats than ever before
despite the arrest of hundreds of members beforehand. This also
has the chance to alter the region’s political landscape.
Other foreign affairs tidbits…
Canada: Folks here have to deal with an election campaign over
the Christmas holidays following a no-confidence vote in
parliament that toppled the Liberal Party government of Prime
Minister Paul Martin. Martin will continue to lead until the Jan.
23 vote.
It all goes back to the giant corruption scandal that enveloped
Martin’s party, but with a strong economy to fall back on Martin
could still pull it out. His chief rival is Conservative Party leader
Stephen Harper and whoever garners the most votes becomes
prime minister, even though neither is likely to have a
parliamentary majority.
Finally, a huge issue in this election is going to be the Liberal
Party’s effort to legalize gay marriage.
Russia: The Wall Street Journal reports that a close aid of
President Vladimir Putin, Leonid Reiman, is the focus of a
massive money-laundering investigation in Europe, where
Reiman allegedly “set up a network of shell companies and trusts
to secure and conceal more than $1 billion in assets” from state-
owned telecom companies.
Malaysia: Update on last week’s story about abuse of Chinese
women. A video did emerge of an ethnic Chinese woman being
forced to do “naked squats” in front of a policewoman and
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi was forced to
apologize to China not just for this act (and supposedly others),
but also the remarks of a cabinet minister of his, Noh Omar, who
told reporters, “If foreigners think that Malaysia police are brutal,
please go back to their own countries and not stay here.” Noh
went on to defend the strip-search procedure.
Bolivia: The leading presidential candidate, Evo Morales, a
disciple of Hugo Chavez, is accusing the U.S. of manipulating
opinion polls to promote the conservative opponent favored by
Washington. Morales, who allegedly has ties to drug traffickers,
has said his election would result in a “nightmare for the Bush
administration.”
Britain: Efforts are underway to reform the pension system, with
a proposal on the table to raise the retirement age from 60 to 67
(for starters) by 2030.
Singapore: Heroin trafficker Nguyen Tuang Van, an Aussie
citizen, was executed on schedule. Australian Prime Minister
John Howard said there would be no retaliation on the part of his
government in this controversial case, though relations “people-
to-people” were undoubtedly damaged.
Curiously, the executioner in Singapore, who held his job for 46
years and had carried out 850 hangings, the preferred method
here, was inexplicably fired earlier in the week. So what do you
say in a job interview if you’re that guy. “I’m good with
people”?
Random Musings
–President Bush is finally addressing the illegal immigration
issue. I agree with the McCain and Kennedy Senate bill that
would include a guest-worker provision, a stance that it appears
the president favors as well. Of course at the same time we need
to keep increasing security. Regardless, it’s high time Congress
hashed out a plan that a majority can agree on.
–8-term California Congressman Duke Cunningham (Rep.)
resigned after pleading guilty to accepting $2.4 million in bribes
from defense contractors. Just your basic congressional dirtball.
The Washington Post described Cunningham’s crimes as being
“breathtaking in scope.”
–And as alluded to above in the Indian casino story, the probe
into Jack Abramoff’s activities continues to widen. The issue
now is will he cooperate like former Tom DeLay aide Michael
Scanlon has?
–For those of you who are supporters of Hillary Clinton, you
have to admit she hasn’t done one thing in the Senate. I also still
don’t understand why she is running for reelection next fall. I
really thought it made sense to focus on the presidency. After
all, she has to declare by February 2007, at the latest.
–NBC’s Brian Williams was in the Superdome this week, three
months after Katrina, and there was still human waste in the
stairwells. Lovely.
And as I’ve slammed the city of New Orleans hard, here’s
further proof of my stance, courtesy of a story in the Wall Street
Journal by Thadeus Herrick. Herrick writes of the problems in
Houston where many of the families have relocated.
“The families of some students aren’t helping. Following an
Oct. 10 fracas at Scarborough (high school), a group of New
Orleans parents complained to administrators about their children
being handcuffed. After Ms. Anderson told them the Houston
students had also been cuffed, the parents left, only to return with
more adults. When administrators asked them to leave, they
circled the school in their cars, honking their horns in protest,
school officials say.”
But Herrick writes in the next paragraph…
“Police say they are investigating an incident on Nov. 10 in
which two Scarborough girls from New Orleans told authorities
they were assaulted after school outside their apartment complex
by two Houston girls who had been expelled from Scarborough
for fighting. Teshesha Madison, the mother of one of the New
Orleans girls, says the Houston girls arrived in two cars and were
accompanied by several adult relatives who urged them on.”
Yes, ye olde spirit of cooperation and brotherhood is coming
apart at the seams. The aftereffects of Katrina and Rita will
linger for decades and the problems being faced by state and
local governments in the entire region are increasing daily. It’s
why I’m curious to get a firsthand look myself in Mississippi in
about a week.
–New Jersey’s gubernatorial campaign was sure an expensive
one. Jon Corzine spent $44.6 million and opponent Doug
Forrester $30.9 million. But multi-millionaire Corzine said he
was going to forego the $175,000 salary due the governor.
Believe it or not, I find this irritating. You don’t gain any more
respect from me by not accepting what the job pays and what
everyone who follows deserves to receive. Do you think New
Jerseyans will think Jon Corzine is more ethical because he
didn’t take his salary? Now when a corporate executive like
Cisco’s John Chambers elects to take $1 a year in salary because
he’s already made $hundreds of millions in stock options, that’s
totally different. Just an opinion…I could be wrong.
–Parade magazine reported that Retired Gen. Tommy Franks
received a $5 million advance for his memoirs and earns $75,000
per speech. Enough said.
–Can you believe that former attorney general Ramsey Clark is
still just 77 years of age? [He turns 78 on Dec. 18.] If it seems
like he’s been around forever, well he has. He was selected to be
LBJ’s attorney general all the way back in 1967. Why O.J.
Simpson was just a junior at USC in those days, not that I’m
linking the two for any particular reason.
–From a story titled “Kids Gone Wild” by New York Times
reporter Judith Warner, who is discussing the fact so many of our
children are rude and obnoxious.
“Parenting today is also largely about training children to
compete – in school and on the soccer field – and the kinds of
attributes they need to be competitive are precisely those that
help break down society’s civility.
“Parents who want their children to succeed more than anything,
Dr. Kindlon said, teach them to value and prioritize achievement
above all else – including other people.”
“ ‘We’re insane about achievement,’ he said. ‘Schoolwork is up
50 percent since 1981, and we’re so obsessed with our kids
getting into the right school, getting the right grades, that we let a
lot of things slide. Kids don’t do chores at home anymore
because there isn’t time.’”
When was the last time you saw an American child mow his
parents’ lawn? Huh? If yours does, God bless you.
–I’m more convinced than ever that George Washington made a
bad move by not accepting the call to become king. And it’s
such a common name, to boot. But on a totally unrelated topic,
did you know that there are no Washington’s in the NBA, NFL
or Major League Baseball Hall of Fames? You can look it up.
So for you hard-driving parents out there that happen to have this
name, maybe think about changing it; for the kid’s sake, you
understand.
–Newsweek gave “King Kong” a super review. I’m lining up
for this one.
–From the Moscow Times comes the tale of a car thief. A car
repair shop “was overloaded with cars brought in for paint jobs
after several fender-benders in the area Thursday afternoon, and
the suspect was hanging out…
“After looking over several cars in the lot, the suspect found the
Nissan Primera with the keys in the ignition and decided to steal
it…
“ ‘What he didn’t know is that it wasn’t there just for a paint
job,’ a police spokesman said. ‘It needed to have its brakes
repaired.’
“The first intersection after he pulled out of the lot proved to be
the downfall of the suspect, who immediately realized he could
not stop and slammed into the back of an SUV.”
He was arrested a short time later.
–Here’s a story from the Middle East. Gunmen “kidnapped two-
prized Arabic-speaking parrots and a lioness cub in a raid on the
zoo in Gaza within weeks of its opening.”
Now be honest. How many of you thought parrots only spoke
English?
–Finally, in a far simpler time, pre-9/11, occasionally I would
bring up the latest news on yaks. It all started when I read an
article about a terrific blizzard / sandstorm in Mongolia and I was
wondering then about the plight of these animals. [WIR 1/13/01]
Well, it turns out that when President Bush had his four-hour trip
to Mongolia the other week, he met some yaks and, according to
U.S. News, was heard to comment, “Really special. Really
special.”
Darn right, Mr. President. But it would have been more accurate
to say these mangy beasts are not only noble, they are highly
nutritious as well.
—
Pray for the men and women of the armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold, $508
Oil, $59.32
Returns for the week 11/28-12/2
Dow Jones -0.5% [10877]
S&P 500 -0.3% [1265]
S&P MidCap +0.4%
Russell 2000 +1.0%
Nasdaq +0.5% [2273]
Returns for the period 1/1/05-12/2/05
Dow Jones +0.9%
S&P 500 +4.4%
S&P MidCap +12.4%
Russell 2000 +6.0%
Nasdaq +4.5%
Bulls 55.8
Bears 21.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Happy Birthday, Mom….it’s a big one, sports fans!
And a note about StocksandNews. Due to increased site traffic,
and the growing archives, I’m migrating to a new server that can
better accommodate the operation. Which means one thing…
there could be a glitch or two over the coming days.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
