[Posted 7:00 AM ET…from Pensacola, FL]
Iraq
Some presidents have used the bully pulpit effectively, like FDR
and Reagan, while others haven’t, such as Jimmy Carter. But
after using it well following 9/11, President Bush has been less
successful, like in building his case for Social Security reform.
Recently, though, he appears to be connecting a little better on
the issue of Iraq, but tragically it’s been two years in coming.
Yet today is a time of cautious optimism regarding Thursday’s
national election and I hope everyone takes a deep breath when
it’s over. “Wait 24 hours.” Or in this case well into January.
At this moment it’s impossible to know who will emerge to lead
the nation. Will it be the more radical Shiites, or a secularist like
Iyad Allawi? Will the National Assembly turn into a forum for
splitting the nation into three disparate states, or will unity
prevail? Will the insurgency die out to the point where it is
buried on page 18, or will it intensify into a full-blown civil war
as the U.S. begins to withdraw? And what role will Iran play?
For this week here’s what we do know.
The insurgency is highly unlikely to disrupt actual voting.
Iyad Allawi survived a probable assassination attempt as he
visited Najaf’s holiest shrine. Allawi has vowed to crack down
on the militias if he were to become the new leader.
The White House is doing its best to integrate the Sunnis into the
political process but in the end it’s still going to be about who
controls the oil…and it won’t be the Sunnis.
Regardless of who ends up leading here, corruption is going to
be a major hindrance. As are the militias, perhaps the biggest
one. One Iraqi official, for example, has 1,600 private security
guards, all paid for by the state, of course.
This week President Bush did receive a shot in the arm from the
governments of Denmark, Romania and Japan, each of whom
vowed to keep their troops in Iraq; a notable development after
nothing but setbacks here.
And finally, how did the Bush administration let the Saddam trial
get so out of hand? As Washington Post columnist Charles
Krauthammer put it; the White House took two years to come up
with this? How could we possibly give Saddam a stage?
So you see there are multiple questions remaining, problems yet
to be addressed, and facts to be faced. A few will be answered
this week, most of the others in just the next two months. And
then there are those that historians will argue about long after
you and I are gone.
One thing is for sure, though, President Bush needs to keep
pounding away on why we are there and what needs to be done.
Not to do so is only cheating our brave men and women who ask
for nothing more than a mission, leadership, and the tools to
accomplish it.
Wall Street
Just as in the case of Iraq, President Bush has been using the
bully pulpit to tout the strength in the U.S. economy as well,
while claiming his share of the credit. On this score he appears
to have had more success as a CBS News / New York Times
survey shows 56% now describe the economy as good vs. 47%
who did so a month ago; though only 38% approve of Bush’s
own handling of it. You can’t have everything, Mr. President.
For a week with little economic data, it proved to be a rather
interesting one as oil and natural gas soared anew; the former to
$61.50 before falling to $59.39, while natural gas hit an all-time
trading high of $15.50 before closing the week at $14.30, still a
far cry from the $11 level of less than two week earlier. While
inventories for all products are still running at comfortable
levels, there are legitimate concerns, particularly on the natural
gas front, that a continuation of this week’s much colder than
normal weather well into January could spell a supply crunch.
The renewed vigor in the crude and gas pits wasn’t exactly good
news for stocks and the market took on gas of its own until a late
rally Friday pared the losses…mostly because of the decline in
energy. Yes, Virginia, oil and gas still matter.
And there’s just two more weeks of Christmas shopping, friends,
and I don’t hear too many retailers saying it’s been a great one
thus far. The wicked weather in some parts of the country isn’t
helping matters and it’s not as if everyone goes online to make
up for it; online sales still just being 5-6% of the total retail take.
Meanwhile, on the topic of real estate, an index of pending home
sales declined in Oct., giving some of us in the bubble crowd
further fodder. But, again, any slowdown here will take awhile
to develop though when reality begins to sink in the pocketbooks
will be slammed shut. Additionally, investor demand for real
estate is shriveling up, a leading home builder, Toll Brothers,
continues to warn about 2006, and a Federal Reserve study
revealed mortgage debt has skyrocketed. [Family net worth,
however, is up because of rising home values.]
Speaking of the consumer, consumer credit plummeted in
October. That’s not a good sign if you expect everyone to whip
out the plastic until the numbers are worn off.
Elsewhere, the Tokyo market has surged about 34% in just a few
months, a mini-bubble by any name. True, Prime Minister
Koizumi has done a wonderful job shoring up the banks, and by
most indicators the deflation era may finally be over. And
despite a surprisingly lackluster GDP number for the third
quarter vs. expectations, the growth trend appears to be well in
place as further indicated by a solid pick-up in business
spending.
So when does Japan’s central bank begin raising interest rates
from zero, which in turn could begin to siphon some capital out
of the U.S.? Stay tuned.
Over in China, its top economic planner is warning of
overcapacity in many sectors; as well as a squeeze play on the
farmer whose costs are rising at the same time prices for his
produce are flat at best.
But for those of us back in America, it could be a volatile week
coming up as retail sales are released, there’s a triple-watching in
the options markets, and the Fed will be hiking rates another
quarter point. Regarding the last action, it’s the accompanying
language that will have everyone on the edge of their seats come
Tuesday.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and S&P 500 declined for a second straight
week, while Nasdaq’s 7-week winning streak came to an end.
The losses in all three, however, were less than 1%.
I’ll tell you what I’m watching as confirmation of a bull run,
assuming it were to resume. I’ve picked G.E., Intel and
Microsoft. Should G.E. cross $38, Intel $28-$29, and Microsoft
$30, then I’d be sold we may have something special, but as it
stands today all three remain $2 to $2.50 from these key levels
and have obviously had trouble getting through them.
But on the valuation front, I’ve gone through my own research
(now over 15 years of handwritten notes, incidentally) and the
market was trading at the same multiples of 18-19 back in 1995-
96 as it is today. Those two years the S&P 500 was up 37% and
23%, and was followed by further gains in 1997-99 of 33%, 28%
and 21%. It wasn’t until mid-1999 that the price / earnings ratio
soared to the unsustainable mid-30s. The point being that I
recognize bull runs can last a long time, but eventually rational
behavior does win out. We’ve had this lengthy stretch of double-
digit profit growth, for example, and once again there are some
who act as if it will last forever. It won’t…and on this score it
will end in 2006.
Lastly, watch these two D’s…Delta and Delphi. Delta’s pilots
are threatening to strike, as are Delphi’s workers. Both would be
suicide missions given the frail financial status of their parents,
while having a ripple effect on the rest of the economy.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.27% 2-yr. 4.40% 10-yr. 4.53% 30-yr. 4.73%
Rates were virtually unchanged, thanks in no small part to the
lack of real economic data. The only significant piece for the
bond market was the third quarter number on productivity, up
big, which lessens wage pressures. So bonds responded
favorably to this, but the move was countered by the impact of
rising energy prices. Otherwise, it’s about the next Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee.
–A trader at Japan’s Mizuho Securities put in an errant
transaction that cost the firm some $225 million. The order was
to sell 610,000 shares at 1 yen each of a security by the name of
J-Com when it should have been 1 share for 610,000 yen. The
error was then compounded when Mizuho’s own system broke
down as it attempted to cancel the trade. But it’s also the Tokyo
Stock Exchange that takes a hit to its credibility as its compliance
procedures should have picked up this obvious mistake.
–Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, heir
apparent to Prime Minister Tony Blair for what seems like
decades, took some heat as he revised downward his country’s
projection for 2005 growth from a spring estimate of 3-3.5% to
1.75%. Brown is also saying the UK’s economy will grow only
2-2.5% in 2006.
–The estimate on Brazil’s GDP for ’05 is down to 2.3% from an
earlier projected 3.5% rise. It’s not all peaches and cream out
there.
–The House extended the Bush tax cuts on dividends and capital
gains thru 2010, but now it must rectify its bill with a Senate
version that instead focuses on the alternative minimum tax and
does not extend the dividend and cap gain provisions after they
expire in 2008. It’s also come down to a battle between ANWR
and hurricane relief. So we’re going to have a most contentious
House / Senate conference that is likely to go into the first of the
new year.
Here’s my take on the tax cuts. I am for a flat tax and
dramatically lower individual rates. And I’m for a zero capital
gains rate.
But I’m also for drastically reduced federal spending, including
reductions in entitlements. I still haven’t seen a solution to
Social Security better than my own. Simply freeze benefits one
year, and let the power of compounding take over, as well as a
modest rise in the retirement age. No one has a solution for
Medicare yet.
As for the dividend tax cut, however, this is where I part with my
conservative brethren. It is nothing but a sop to the rich,
period. For starters, middle income earners, let alone those on
the bottom of the rung, don’t own more than about $5,000-
$10,000 in stocks to begin with, plus, any income they do receive
in the form of dividends is already taxed at a drastically reduced
rate.
So you shouldn’t be surprised then that I also agree with a
Federal Reserve study that concludes the dividend cut is
overrated in terms of stock market performance. I said that early
on and despite the Larry Kudlows of the world trumpeting it,
there is no way they can vow it contributed in any significant
way to the market’s rally.
That said; opponents of tax rate cuts, in general, can not hide the
fact revenues have been rising since they were enacted. You can
then argue, what came first, the stimulus from the cuts or just a
normal economic recovery? I say the cuts.
So the debate is now over extending the tax cuts vs. a near total
solution for the alternative minimum tax. You can not have both
without drastically tackling entitlements and the chances of that
occurring in an election year are nil.
Lastly, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
under President Reagan, Martin Feldstein, had the following take
on why we should have a zero capital gains rate in an op-ed for
the Wall Street Journal.
“Any tax on capital gains is unjustified because it is a
combination of three separate unfair taxes. One part of the
capital gains tax is a tax on the rise of a company’s value that
reflects the retained earnings that have already been subject to a
corporate income tax and should not be taxed again. A second
part of the capital gains tax reflects the rise in the nominal value
of the company due to the rise in the general price level since the
stock was purchased, a rise in nominal value that does not make
the shareholder better off in real terms. The remaining part of
the capital gains reflects the unpredictable variation in share
prices that averages out to zero in an efficient capital market. If
the tax law allowed full loss offsets when share prices fell, the
government would collect no revenue from these variations; any
net revenue reflects only the unfair limits on loss offsets.”
If your head hurts after this, take a break. The column will still
be here when you return.
–U.S. News & World Report suggests that former House
Majority Leader Dick Armey could be the next treasury
secretary. As a vocal proponent of tax reform during his time in
Congress, this selection makes eminent sense.
–Private capital flows into emerging markets are at record levels,
exceeding the previous high set in 1996; which was right before
the 1997-98 Asia / Russia debacles.
At the same time, the outlook for some emerging Central
European nations is good. Business Week had a constructive
table on labor costs in the region vs. China, India, and Germany.
For example, the average hourly wage for a factory worker in
Poland is $3.07, vs. $18.80 in Germany. [China and India,
though, are still at $0.80 and $0.43, respectively.]
But a middle manager in Poland is at $6.69 vs. $4.42 in China
and $3.13 in India. Germany in this category is $40.40. Now
where would you put your business? I’m going for Poland; or
Czech Republic, or Hungary, or Slovakia…basically the veal
cutlet and goulash nations.
–The New York Stock Exchange’s 1,366 members voted
overwhelmingly for the merger with electronic market maker
Archipelago Holdings. The deal is valued at $5.14 million per
seat in NYSE stock and cash. Seeing as in the past year you
could have had one for close to $1 million, not a bad investment.
–Program trading is running at 61% of all volume on the NYSE.
–Gold has continued soaring to new 24-year highs, and I still say
it’s more about supply and demand than anything else. True,
some central banks are also diversifying their holdings and if a
worldwide financial crisis ever developed would do even more
so, and there is also more than a bit of speculation going on, but
the facts are this: In 2004, global production declined 5% and
has been moribund for years as the price languished. But today
rising demand, particularly from the growing middle class in
China and India, is fueling the latest surge. Producers, though,
are just now ramping up production as quickly as possible but
this takes time. As economist Robert Samuelson concludes,
however, gold’s true value is “unfathomable.”
–Another bad week for Merck. Over the weekend a leading
cardiologist, Eric Topol of the Cleveland Clinic, testified in a
federal Vioxx trial and labeled Merck’s behavior “repulsive” and
“appalling.” Topol has long felt Vioxx can cause a heart attack
anytime after a patient begins taking it and that the risks were
evident as early as 1999. He also claimed Merck tried to
suppress his findings years ago. Then, late in the week, the
esteemed New England Journal of Medicine claimed that Merck
omitted key evidence in its reports to the FDA and the medical
community.
I’ve said from the start that Merck officials were nothing but a
bunch of liars, and while I feel for the employees that will lose
jobs because of this and other mistakes on the part of
management, those who are directly involved in the cover-up
deserve serious jail time. The public’s trust can not be breached
in the manner Merck has.
–The popularity of impotence drugs is flat-lining at worldwide
sales of $2.5 billion for Viagra, Cialis and Levitra. This market
represents just 0.5% of total spending on prescription drugs, by
the way, and has failed to meet over-optimistic projections.
[New York Times]
–Boston Scientific is making a run at fellow heart-device maker
Guidant, thus topping Johnson & Johnson’s offer by $8 a share.
J&J refuses to throw in the towel, claiming it already had a deal.
–Verizon is freezing managers’ pension plans (while expanding
their 401Ks), as well as reducing healthcare benefits when they
retire. Current retirees aren’t impacted…as yet. The stage is
now set for contentious negotiations with the unionized work
force and is but a further example of the swift changes taking
place across all industries that act like a severe tax hike or wage
cut…take your pick.
–BlackBerry users should take heart that the maker Research in
Motion is in arbitration with NTP over the patent infringement
suit the latter filed. I would think a shutdown in service is highly
unlikely, though late Friday NTP was making noise that it
wanted $900 million over the next five years to settle the dispute.
–Back to energy, while long-term bulls tout the lack of
significant new finds as being a reason to be optimistic on prices
for years to come, one steadfast bear has been Cambridge Energy
Research Associates. It is now forecasting there won’t be a peak
in world oil supply before 2020 and that capacity could rise
another 25% over the next ten years.
–2006 is projected to be a record year for mergers & acquisition
activity; generating an estimated $18 billion in fees as corporate
cash flows are at historic levels.
–The coming World Trade Organization talks in Hong Kong will
yield zero progress on the only issue that matters these days,
farm subsidies. And we can continue to thank the French for
this.
–Just a few random statistics:
The average taxable bond fund is up 1.2% in 2005 thru
November. But for the past five years, the annualized return is
5.5% versus a loss of 3.9% for your basic large cap growth fund.
However, if you were smart enough to be in an average small cap
value fund over the past five years, you would have had yearly
gains of 15.9%. Why you’d be celebrating with premium beer, I
imagine. [Lipper Associates]
–According to a study by the Environmental Protection Agency,
Americans discard an estimated two million tons of tech trash
each year; that’s two million tons of lead, mercury and
chromium. But no Benzene! [At least none that I’m aware of.]
–Coca-Cola is going to be launching a new global ad campaign
in 2006, “Welcome to the Coke side of life.” Oh yeah, that’s
powerful. And Coke is said to be positioning itself as
“stubbornly positive,” as opposed to your editor who is
stubbornly negative.
–The Los Angeles Times revealed that while New York
Attorney General Eliot Spitzer didn’t name names in his
settlement with the music recording industry over the payola
scandal, the Times has identified two high-ranking Sony
executives, including music label CEO Don Ienner, who
allegedly told underlings, “Whatever it takes, get the song
played.”
–My portfolio: I had a pleasant surprise on Friday. A little dog I
own, a piece of tech flotsam that is, suddenly doubled in one day,
which is rather sporty I think you’d agree. Unfortunately, it’s a
very small percentage of my holdings and I’m essentially back to
even on this one. Overall, I remain roughly 80% cash, with zero
plans to change this mix in the near future.
Foreign Affairs
North Korea: The six-party talks are breaking down rapidly.
Pyongyang said this week it would quit the discussions unless
the U.S. lifted financial sanctions imposed on it for circulating
counterfeit U.S. dollars and running drugs. A U.S. congressional
report back in March said Kim Jong-il’s criminal activity
generated $700 million in annual profits, which would account
for 2/3s of its legitimate exports. [Choe Sang-Hun / International
Herald Tribune]
Iran: The Bush administration’s good friend, Russia, admits to
selling $1 billion in weapons systems to Iran, though Moscow
insists they are “exclusively defensive” in nature; items such as
anti-aircraft systems that could be used to protect Iran’s Bushehr
nuclear reactor where the mullahs are working on their weapons
program, to be exact.
Regarding Iran’s intentions, International Atomic Energy
Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei concedes Iran could be just
months away from having enough material for several nukes, but
later he said there is “no smoking gun,” and while technically
correct he then had to admit the IAEA missed Iran’s weapons
activity for 18 years.
As for that daffy Iranian President Ahmadinejad, he said the
following on state television.
“If European countries claim that they have killed Jews in World
War II…why don’t they provide the Zionist regime with a piece
of Europe.”
There is little doubt 2006 will see action of a military kind in
Iran. Israel can ill-afford to wait much longer as the West
dithers.
Israel: Uzi Landau, a popular Likud Party hardliner, backed out
of the party leadership fight to see who replaces Ariel Sharon and
then goes against him in March’s election. Landau threw his
support to Benjamin Netanyahu, thus ticking off Landau’s long-
time backers. [I liked the guy, too.] As for Netanyahu, while
most Israeli politicians have baggage, ‘Bibi’ has steamer chests
full of it.
Billionaire Saudi Prince Al-Walid bin Talal weighed in on
Sharon’s bold moves with the Palestinians, saying Sharon
“deserves the benefit of the doubt” in brokering peace. [The
Prince, in an interview, also criticized U.S. policy in Iraq but said
it can’t leave just now.]
China: 80,000 protested for more electoral reforms in Hong
Kong on Sunday, leading Premier Wen Jiabao to say he was
“very concerned” over Hong Kong’s impatience with the Basic
Law and universal suffrage. Of course it’s the communists who
reneged on the original agreement that was to bring the people
the right to directly elect their representatives in a series of
moves, 2007-08, that are now on a different timetable. And
watch Hong Kong this week with the World Trade Organization
talks taking place here.
On Taiwan, President Chen Shui-bian suffered a blow in local
elections as the rival Kuomintang (Nationalists) made more
gains. The Kuomintang seeks reconciliation with the mainland
while Chen favors a path towards independence. Of course the
Kuomintang leadership’s support is being bought by Beijing.
And as China suffered another horrific mine explosion, killing at
least 74, and while rural protests led to authorities gunning down
an unknown number (a developing story that promises to give
Beijing a real black eye), the environmental chief responsible for
the city where the chemical plant went up in flames, thus
contaminating the river that flowed through Harbin and on to
Russia, supposedly hung himself. Well, actually, you can bet
authorities paid him a visit and said, “I think it would be a good
idea if you hung yourself.” Then they gave him the rope
Russia: In key Moscow city council elections, President
Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party captured 28 of 35 seats,
thus setting the stage for a probable rout in the 2007 State Duma
vote. Popular Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov will step down in
’07 when his term expires because his relationship with Putin has
turned frosty. Putin will then handpick his successor, just as he
does with the regional governors, while the Moscow council
rubber stamps it. Not exactly Western-style democracy in this
nation that laughingly is part of the G-8.
Meanwhile, gas giant Gazprom and Ukraine remain deadlocked
over 2006’s gas supplies and a new contract based on today’s
prices. Putin and Gazprom officials have assured Europe they
have nothing to worry about, even though much of Europe’s
supplies flow through pipelines that transit Ukraine.
Lebanon: At least two mass graves have been uncovered near
the Syrian border, one containing at least 20 bodies and with
some in uniform. The town where the discoveries were made
has long been used by Syrian intelligence and the graves are
believed to be 12 years old. Meanwhile, the investigation into
the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri has taken
a turn for the worse as prosecutor Detlev Mehlis announced he is
leaving Dec. 15, fulfilling his original agreement with the UN.
One can hardly blame Mehlis for wanting to lead a more normal
life again, even though he will be trailed for the rest of his days.
At least his team of investigators is staying on. But now the
Syrian government of Bashar Assad is fighting back on the
public relations front and a key witness has recanted his earlier
testimony.
Egypt: In the freest elections in 50 years, the Muslim
Brotherhood has captured about one-fifth of the seats in
parliament. The four-week vote was marred by violence that
claimed at least ten lives. But the real issue is, just who is the
Brotherhood and how will it act given its new influence? The
group, founded in 1928, renounced violence decades ago and has
called for genuine political democracy. But at the same time
many of its leaders still speak of “enforcing public morality.” It
is either going to learn to compromise, a la Turkey’s ruling
Islamist party, or the Brotherhood will reveal its true colors.
Should the latter prove to be the case, it will be a devastating
blow for the entire region.
Turkey: Speaking of ruling Islamists, Prime Minister Erdogan
said, “The lack of understanding between civilizations is a great
handicap, and it turns into extremism, intolerance and terrorism.”
[Defense News]
Japan: As referred to above, the ruling LDP voted to extend the
Iraqi mission for 600 non-combat troops.
Denmark: Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen declared,
“The Danish government’s position is that we stay in Iraq and
help the Iraqis establish a new democracy as long as the Iraqis
ask for help.” This is a case where Denmark is not anxious to
pull its 230 troops (it also has 350 in Afghanistan) even though
U.S. commanders tell them they can probably leave soon.
Romania: The U.S. reached agreement on accessing military
bases here, the first such arrangement with a former communist
country in Eastern Europe. And along the lines of Japan and
Denmark, Romania vows not to remove its 860 troops from Iraq.
Ukraine: Blood samples have been taken from President Viktor
Yushchenko and are being examined in separate labs in Belgium,
Britain and Germany as part of the ongoing investigation into
allegations Yushchenko was poisoned in Sept. 2004.
Britain: David Cameron, all of 39, is the new Tory
(Conservative) party leader. He is far more centrist than
Margaret Thatcher, but as some opinion makers in the UK have
already noted, how this is useful in separating him from Prime
Minister Tony Blair is questionable. Nonetheless, the
mainstream media is falling all over Cameron, at least initially,
as Blair himself suffers with a 37% approval rating, his lowest.
Chile: The stage is set for Sunday’s presidential election, as
frontrunner Michelle Bachelet attempts to avoid a run-off. But
the campaign was marred at the end in a tragic way as a bus full
of Bachelet’s supporters hit a truck head on, killing five of them.
Venezuela: Last, but far from least and closest to our hearts,
geographically, President Hugo Chavez now controls all 167
seats in parliament following legislative elections that saw the
five leading opposition parties quit beforehand thanks to a
suspect registration process and alleged tampering of the voting
machines. In the end, only 25% turned out; not that Chavez
gives a damn.
Random Musings
–The above aforementioned CBS News / New York Times poll
still shows that despite a slight improvement for President Bush
in his overall approval rating to 40%, 42% would vote for the
Democrat in their district next November vs. 33% going
Republican.
–As one who called Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld a
“liar” in the spring of 2003, you shouldn’t be surprised that I got
a kick out of his remarks this week concerning the press and
coverage of Iraq.
“To be responsible…one needs to stop defining success in Iraq
as the absence of terrorist attacks….I understand that there may
be great pressure on many of them to tell a dramatic story, (but)
while it is easy to use a bombing or a terrorist attack to support
that interest, it is not always the most accurate story, or at least
not the full story.”
You know, Mr. Secretary, you’d have a point if you yourself had
told even half the truth the past 2 ½ years.
–Another cabinet member who was floundering some this week
was Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. At first she was firm
on the issue of the United States and its possible treatment of
some terror suspects.
“Some governments choose to cooperate with the United States
in intelligence, law enforcement, or military matters. It is up to
those governments and their citizens to decide if they wish to
work with us to prevent terrorist attacks against their own
country or other countries, and decide how much sensitive
information they can make public.”
Rather unyielding. In fact, perhaps a little too strong (even if
right) as she spent the rest of the week bobbing and weaving
while denying the U.S. engaged in torture, period.
–Columnist David Brooks in the New York Times.
“When conservatism was in its most creative phase, there was a
sharp distinction between conservatives and Republicans.
Conservatives chased ideas, while Republicans were the
corporate hacks who sold out. Now that conservative
Republicans are in power, that distinction is obliterated.
“There are a number of consequences. A lot of the energy that
used to go into ideas is now devoted to defending Republican
politicians. Many former conservative activists have become
Republican lobbyists. [When conservatism was a movement of
ideas, it attracted oddballs; now that it’s a movement with power,
it attracts sleazeballs.]”
–Let’s face it; it’s hard to take Howard Dean seriously. But it’s
also amazing to look back on the Democrats’ selection of John
Kerry. This week Kerry played the part of the fool yet again in
responding to President Bush’s speeches on Iraq. Scott P. put it
rather well, if harshly.
“It took two idiots to be Milli Vanilli…it takes only one to be
John Kerry.”
–A Vietnamese doctor treating patients with bird flu says
Tamiflu is good for ordinary influenza but is “useless” when it
comes to the H5N1 virus. And not for nothing, but more and
more cases seem to be popping up with each week and it bears
repeating; first, just how much is China still covering up, and,
second, the real problem could come in the spring when the birds
migrate back to infect a new round of victims.
–New Orleans was forced to postpone its mayoral election until
Sept. 30 from Feb. 4. There simply aren’t enough folks who’ve
returned, which is a big reason why Tulane University has had to
cut back some programs drastically as it faces a budget crisis.
Sports are being eliminated, among the more serious items,
including men’s track and men’s and women’s golf. [Track
always gets cut in these situations. It’s not like us runners need a
lot. Give us a surface and we’ll supply the shoes and shorts.]
–Darryl Fears of the Washington Post had an interesting story on
philanthropy in the black community. Incredibly, among black
celebrities, only boxer Lennox Lewis (a British citizen), gave a
substantial amount ($300,000) for building the new Muhammad
Ali Center in Louisville, Kentucky. Nationwide there has been
an ongoing problem with new black-oriented museums and it’s
most pronounced among athletes.
Darryl Fears:
“(A) top administrator at the Ali Center, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity for fear of being fired, said former
basketball stars Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley were
contacted, as were golfer Tiger Woods and fight promoter Don
King. Actor Will Smith, who was nominated for an Academy
Award for his movie portrayal of Ali, was also solicited, the
administrator said. None contributed.
“With their numbers dramatically rising, black-oriented
museums, memorials and centers are increasingly dependent on
the largess of black people. But with the notable exception of
Bill Cosby and Oprah Winfrey, prominent black entertainers and
athletes, and black Americans in general, tend not to contribute
to these cultural institutions.”
To be fair, many are asked too often, or not at all.
“I can’t imagine how many times Michael Jordan is asked to
contribute money,” said one fellow. “He can’t give to
everything.” [I get the impression, though, that His Airness is
not the most generous of folks.]
Tiger’s spokesman said he turned down the Ali Center request
because he was committing $25 million to building his learning
center in Anaheim. You have to be cool with that, I guess.
My own observation, from following the New York sports scene
my entire life, is that rare is the black athlete who gives back to
his community, let alone to a cultural facility. Those that do,
however, should be praised (to the extent they themselves want
to be revealed) as role models to encourage others to give…
instead of simply lining the pockets of their posses.
–I feel sorry for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He should not have been placed in the position he is in the case
of Crips co-founder Tookie Williams. Williams is to be executed
Dec. 13 for the 1979 slaying of four people in Los Angeles, but
all manner of Hollywood celebrities have come to his defense,
citing his books, speeches by phone, and other pitches to the
youth to stay out of gangs. I’m sorry, but Tookie should have
been put to death decades ago, and for the life of me I don’t see
how he’s any kind of example for the youth. And as many of
you have written in, who is speaking for the victims?
–Moving across to China, quickly, before I’m targeted by Mike
Farrell and Jamie Foxx, pity restaurant owner Liu Jie who for
years operated a small establishment in Anhui.
It seems that Xiao county officials ate at his place regularly and
never paid. Finally, Liu was forced to close down. But he
attempted to get some of the money back, 170,000 yuan worth,
and finally the local government established a payback plan…
5,000 yuan a year. [South China Morning Post]
–Well, I’ve got to admit that panda cub in Washington is kind of
cute, but the four zoos in the U.S. that now have pandas are
asking China to cut their $1 million annual fee. You see, sports
fans, after an initial spike in attendance every time one of these
little fake bears is born, attendance goes back to normal levels.
But don’t look for the Chinese to do us any favors.
–I can’t believe President Bush is receiving heat for the
Christmas card the White House sent out. Some Christian
groups are upset it says “holiday season” instead of Christmas.
Others complain it features the presidential pets, frolicking in the
snow, and not some religious scene.
C’mon. I’m all for calling Christmas what it is…Christmas.
And I call my fake tree a Christmas tree and expect others to.
But cut the White House some slack on this one…plus the card is
cute. As for the boycotts of some retail chains….I’ll let others
comment on that one.
[Actually, I wish there was a ‘Yule Yak’ on the card, following
Bush’s trip to Mongolia.]
–Even the New York Times can not believe New Jersey
Governor-elect Corzine has tabbed Congressman Robert
Menendez to fill out the term on his Senate seat. Menendez is a
walking conflict of interest, just as Corzine is.
But next year it’s going to get very interesting in my home state
as former Governor Tom Kean’s son is slated to run against
Menendez. Everyone loves Tom Jr. He’s a good guy, just like
his father. And he’s got a district office just around the corner
from mine. So get used to seeing the name, because I’m going to
pull for him hard.
–I want to publicly thank senators Joseph Lieberman and Trent
Lott for supporting the Civil War Battlefield Preservation
Program.
–Finally, I’m in Pensacola because it is a good launching point
for my foray today into Mississippi; an attempt to make
Christmas a little brighter for some family whose lives were
disrupted by Katrina. I know where I’m going, but haven’t a
clue what I’ll find. Regardless, you can be sure I’ll have
something to say about this next week. I’ve already seen an
airstrip full of unused FEMA trailers in Pensacola, as well as a
depressing trailer park for hurricane survivors. This story in
many respects is just developing.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $530
Oil, $59.39
Returns for the week 12/5-12/9
Dow Jones -0.9% [10778]
S&P 500 -0.5% [1259]
S&P MidCap -0.1%
Russell 2000 -0.3%
Nasdaq -0.7% [2256]
Returns for the period 1/1/05-12/9/05
Dow Jones -0.0 [-0.04]
S&P 500 +3.9%
S&P Midcap +12.3%
Russell 2000 +5.7%
Nasdaq +3.7%
Bulls 56.2
Bears 21.9 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Shout out to LT!
And congratulations to my brother Harry for winning another
award here in New Jersey for his political cartoons; this one
handed out by the New Jersey Municipal Mgmt. Assoc. for his
work with The Item of Millburn / Short Hills.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
