**Next WIR…not until 11:00 PM or so on Aug. 27**
[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Ceasefire
At a press conference on Monday, President George W. Bush
was asked whether he thought Hizbullah was a winner in its war
with Israel.
“First of all…if I were Hizbullah, I’d be claiming victory too.
But the people around the region and the world need to take a
step back and recognize that Hizbullah’s action created a very
strong reaction that unfortunately caused some people to lose
their lives, innocent people to lose their lives.
“But on the other hand it was Hizbullah that caused the
destruction…..
“I think when people really take a look at the type of mentality
that celebrates the loss of innocent life, they will reject that type
of mentality.
“And so, you know, Hizbullah, of course, has got a fantastic
propaganda machine and they’re claiming victories. But how
can you claim victory when, at one time, you were a state within
a state, safe within southern Lebanon, and now you’re going to
be replaced by a Lebanese army and an international force?
“None of this would have happened, by the way, had (UN
Resolution 1559) been fully implemented. Now is the time to
get it implemented. It’s going to take a lot of work, no question
about it.”
No, Mr. President, yesterday was the time to get 1559
implemented, not now. You sat back and did nothing and the
result was a devastating conflict that further enhanced the power
of all the bad players in the region, from Hizbullah to Syria to
Iran.
Five weeks after the war started, President Bush still shows an
incredible lack of understanding as to Hizbullah’s power and
influence in ordinary Lebanese society over vast swaths of that
country. I wrote on May 7, 2005, in this very space after my
time in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley:
“Hizbullah does not represent all of the nation’s Shiites but I saw
firsthand just how popular it is among the lower classes. Yes,
Hizbullah does build schools and hospitals and while it’s difficult
for an American (let alone an Israeli constantly under threat from
Hizbullah and its growing missile arsenal) to understand this, it’s
a fact.”
So now we see Hizbullah passing around Iran’s money as
Lebanon begins its massive rebuilding effort and while it’s
impossible to tell just how broad Hasan Nasrallah’s support will
be a year or two from now, especially in light of the fact this is
one shaky ceasefire, it’s clear Hizbullah is a force to be reckoned
with at a time when both the U.S. and Israel thought it could be
taken down.
But for now, while our leader in Washington stammers, Israel is
doing some real soul-searching of its own. In the first big debate
following the ceasefire, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the war
had demonstrated “(Israel) will respond with force to every terror
act, from the north or the south, from land or sea….and that the
State of Israel won’t suffer any harm to its sovereignty or citizens.”
Olmert avowed that UN Resolution 1701 was recognition “the
entire international community agrees that the terror state in
Lebanon must be annihilated. The Security Council decided
unanimously that there are only Israel and Lebanon – no longer a
state within a state, no longer a terror organization permitted to
act inside Lebanon as the long arm of the axis of evil that
stretches from Tehran to Damascus and used Lebanon in its
weakness as a tool in its war.”
Olmert said “IDF operations over the past month have hurt the
murderous organization (Hizbullah) to a degree that is not yet
known to the public. Its weapons, its long-range arsenal and the
self-confidence of its fighters and leaders have been harmed,”
adding Hizbullah’s leadership will be hunted down “at every
time and in every place, and we won’t ask permission from
anyone” to destroy them.
Olmert admitted “There were mistakes made (in managing the
war)” but “We won’t sink into blame and guilt. We don’t have
that luxury.”
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu finally let loose. “Unfortunately, there will be
another round (in this war) because the government’s just
demands weren’t met” by the ceasefire agreement.
“The (kidnapped) soldiers weren’t returned home, Hizbullah was
not disarmed…Right now, we are (merely) in an interim period
between wars. And there is no one who will prevent our enemies
from rearming and preparing for the next round….We are living
in a coma, and received a warning telling us to return to reality as
it is, and to return to ourselves and to those values that will
secure our existence in the future.” [Jerusalem Post]
Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad blasted Israel in his
first post-war address on Tuesday, while praising a Hizbullah
“victory” that had helped destroy U.S. plans to reshape the
Middle East.
“Their ‘New Middle East,’ based on subjugation and
humiliation, and denial of rights and identity, has turned into an
illusion,” Assad said in reference to Washington’s goals.
Assad also blasted Israel’s supporters in Lebanon, alluding to the
anti-Syrian majority in parliament, as he made clear his intention
of exerting his influence in the country yet again.
And on the issue of badly needed humanitarian and
reconstruction aid, Washington appears bent on letting Hizbullah
take the lion’s share of the credit. Lebanon’s interior minister
said “(The Americans) ask us to do a lot, and they don’t help us
to do it, which is so different from what the Iranians have done to
help Hizbullah. Our people are comparing what the Iranians are
doing and the Americans are doing for their friends.”
This is the reality, folks, and as for the implementation of a
permanent ceasefire, complete with 15,000 Lebanese forces and
eventually an equal number of UN peacekeepers in the south,
there are major problems here. The Lebanese Army, with its
Hizbullah sympathizers, is showing up and has already said it
wouldn’t disarm Nasrallah’s forces, while the UN still hasn’t
settled on rules of engagement, which has most nations that
might be willing to contribute troops saying ‘Wait a second, we
aren’t doing anything until you tell us what they are.’
There’s a new round of French bashing going on and the French
better step up as they had promised earlier, but at the same
time if I’m President Jacques Chirac I’m not doing squat until I
know what the rules are. Americans would blast any leader of
ours who just blindly sent in our troops without knowing them.
This is also yet another time when the world community pays for
having a pitiful leader of its own in UN Secretary General Kofi
Annan. LEAD, for crying out loud, Kofi. There will be plenty
of time later for you to attend your Manhattan soirees.
And not for nothing but as Americans were forced to watch
coverage of one of the true creeps on the planet, that
androgynous life form who “confessed” to killing JonBenet
Ramsey, this coming Tuesday, Iran is finally slated to counter
proposals for dismantling its uranium enrichment program. Iran
is not likely to address the Security Council’s demand it suspend
it by Aug. 31, rather Tehran has long said on Aug. 22 it would
speak to an earlier package of incentives. No doubt they feel
rather emboldened by the outcome of the war, while for its part
the reality is sinking in among Israeli leaders that a preemptive
strike may be a necessity, sooner rather than later, even if they
haven’t a clue exactly what they’re hitting.
For now, though, in keeping with my policy of presenting all
sides of the debate, following is more opinion on the
Israel/Lebanon war as well as the war on terror in general.
Barry Rubin / Jerusalem Post, Aug. 13, 2006
“It is important to note that the Syrians and Iranians were able to
engage in one of the biggest terrorism-sponsorship events in
history, at no cost whatsoever – a point that will surely not
escape the attention of those countries’ leaders….
“On the public relations front, Israel came in for far more
condemnation than Tehran and Damascus. This in itself is a
victory for the latter. Imagine being able to arm, train and incite
a terrorist group to violate an international border and
deliberately target another country’s civilians, suffer no cost, and
make your victim come out looking worse!
“In the terrorism sponsorship business it doesn’t get any better
than that.
“Most important of all, the stock of Iran and Syria has risen
across the Arab world. They are now the heroes of the
resistance. For the first time, the Persian/Arab, Shiite/Sunni wall
has been breached. Within Syria, though not Iran, the adventure
also increased the regime’s domestic popularity. This is a
definite win/win situation.”
Anshel Pfeffer / Jerusalem Post, Aug. 14, 2006
“Why did Olmert and his minister falter at the last minute? [Ed.
In halting the troops pending a diplomatic solution.] Was he
unable to withstand international pressure at the critical moment?
Was the scepter of lengthening casualty lists too much for him?
“The answer to these questions will probably be stuff for
historians, but now many Israelis, including those who sat for a
month in stifling bomb shelters, reservists who dropped
everything and reported to their units and the families who
anxiously awaited a telephone call from their sons in Lebanon
and dreaded the knock of the local IDF liaison are feeling that
their sacrifice has been betrayed.
“After years of dismissing the UN as an ineffectual and anti-
Israel organization, how can Israelis believe that of all the
possibilities, it will be the one to make sure that Hizbullah never
again threatens our northern towns and villages.
“Despite all its failings, including the recent ones, there remains
only one institution that Israelis firmly trust, and that is the IDF.
Now Olmert will go down in history as the prime minister who
didn’t let the army finish the job….
“The ceasefire in the north, if it is implemented at all, also
signals the end of the political ceasefire. Politicians on the Right
and Left are already clamoring for Olmert’s head, both wings
claiming, from their own point of view, that at least 120 lives
have been sacrificed for no real purpose.”
Michael Freund / Jerusalem Post, Aug. 15, 2006
“Not since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait has a Middle
Eastern leader made such a grievous mistake, both in
underestimating his foe and miscalculating the impact of his own
course of action.
“Inexperience at the helm combined with hesitation and
uncertainty produced an unmitigated fiasco, one that raises
serious questions about whether this person is truly fit to lead.
“While many might view the above description as referring to
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his handling of the war in the
north, there is in fact another figure in the region, one to whom it
would appear to be even more applicable. And that person is
none other than Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad….
“Indeed, by transferring advanced rockets and weaponry to
Hizbullah, Tehran and Damascus have just unwittingly proven
one of the Bush administration’s central contentions regarding
the need for preemptive action against rogue states in the global
war on terror.
“The two countries have demonstrated that they are ready and
willing to share missile systems with a terrorist organization,
thus strengthening the case that they must be prevented from
obtaining weapons of mass destruction at all costs….
“Through their actions, Iran has just made the case, better than
the most eloquent of Washington press spokesmen ever could, as
to why they pose a grave and immediate threat to the entire free
world with their obstinate pursuit of nuclear weapons. And it is
this very same argument, which the Iranians have just
unwittingly bolstered, that Bush may one day soon choose to
make in justifying the need for possible military action against
Iran….
“In other words, to borrow Lenin’s phrase, Iran and Syria may
have just sold the rope from which they themselves will
eventually hang.”
Rami G. Khouri / Daily Star (Lebanon), Aug. 12, 2006
“Talk about wake-up calls. The arrest in England of 21 people
who allegedly planned to blow up airplanes over the Atlantic
Ocean is about as dramatic and dangerous as it gets in the wake-
up call department. Something is driving average young men to
plan and execute deeds of almost unimaginable inhumanity,
targeting innocent civilians in the West who have nothing to do
with whatever conflict may be at hand here….
“It is high time that people of influence in all these societies
recognize that their civilians are being terrorized because
opinion-molders in these societies have allowed themselves to be
politically terrorized into ignoring the obvious links between
conditions in Arab societies and the growth and spread of terror.
There can be no doubt that events in the Arab world contribute
significantly to turning middle class men into world class
monsters.
“The two most important cases are Palestine and Lebanon. Here
is where Anglo-American-Israeli policies combine with the
prevalent absence of serious Arab political leadership and
responsibility to leave masses of ordinary Arabs feeling helpless
and vulnerable. They see, feel and must somehow react to the
mass suffering, death, displacement, pauperization and
dehumanization that are now transmitted around the world on
television.
“The Israeli atrocities in Lebanon are merely the latest example
of this modern legacy, but Israel’s American-supported assault
on the Palestinians is just as brutal, and much older. A new
report issued Thursday shows that 170 Palestinians were killed in
the occupied Gaza Strip in the latest Israeli military offensive
between June 27 and August 8, with 151 individuals killed in
July alone….More significantly, the report by the Palestinian
Monitoring Group reveals that 138 of the 170 Palestinians killed
were civilians, and 25% of the civilian fatalities were children….
“We’ve had a spike in terror and greater resistance against Israel,
the Anglo-Americans and Arab regimes. We have yet to see
responsible political leaders here or there grasp the simple truth
that ordinary men and women in this region have known for
decades: bad policies that chronically brutalize ordinary people
inevitably transform some of those people into senseless death
and revenge machines that only want to brutalize in return.”
Editorial / Daily Star, Aug. 14, 2006
“UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ensures that military
action in South Lebanon will be accompanied by a political
process. The cost of delaying that process – due to the United
States and the United Kingdom delaying the meeting of the
Security Council for one month – has been high for Israel. The
Israeli government has been discredited and serious wrinkles in
the U.S.-Israeli relationship have been exposed. The Israelis
now have to contend with a political arena that is in utter
disarray.
“On the other hand, delaying the process – and prolonging the
Lebanese people’s suffering – has sparked an unprecedented
level of solidarity in Lebanon. By rallying around a national
stand, the country achieved a diplomatic breakthrough and
obtained key changes in the final UN resolution. These changes
reflect the fact that even as guns were firing and civilians were
fleeing, Lebanon’s political culture was maturing….
“But the Lebanese are not out of the woods just yet. There is still
a question of whether Syria will change the pattern of
destabilizing Lebanon and deliver the documents that will allow
the Lebanese to reclaim the Shebaa Farms. There is also a
possibility that the United States will obstruct the process of
implementing 1701 before Lebanon and Israel can reach closure.
However, if these two parties refrain from being spoilers, the
Lebanese will have a rare opportunity to rebuild on solid ground,
not the quicksand of political grievances that threatens to give
way to another war….
“Lebanon also has a rare opportunity to strengthen its army as it
extends control over Lebanese territory. Israel’s wanton
destruction of Lebanon has made a very strong case to the
Lebanese people for the need to have a creative and viable
defense strategy. The best strategy would be one where
Hizbullah’s arms and expertise were institutionalized within the
Lebanese Army.
“The coming months will require considerable adaptation on the
part of the political class. All leaders…will need to go beyond
their divisive sectarian stances in order to better accommodate
the Shiite identity that has been in the background of Lebanon’s
landscape for the last 1,000 years. In doing so, they can learn a
lot from Hizbullah’s professional and serious approach – whether
in politics, warfare or organization. The private sector, including
bankers, industrialists, lawyers and especially journalists, will
also need to recognize that the third republic’s success will
require their constructive participation. They must stop preying
on the weaknesses of the political system and become
responsible participants in the public discourse that will be
necessary for Lebanon’s growth.”
Editorial / Daily Star, Aug. 16, 2006
“The Lebanese have suffered decades of war and conflict with
Israel. What we need now from Syria is not subversive
manipulation of Lebanese politics or the micro-management of
our political affairs for financial gain. What we need from Syria
is a simple piece of paper, a signed document that states
unequivocally that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.”
[Ed. I can’t help but note the focus on Shebaa Farms, as I long
ago told you this was key.]
Editorial / Daily Star, Aug. 17, 2006
“In the past month, and for some time before that, we have heard
just about every possible suggestion about how to deal with
Hizbullah: Attack it, degrade it, disarm it, wean it away from its
friends in Syria and Iran, engage it politically, bring it into the
Lebanese government in a bigger way, pressure it to show its real
aims, drive it away from the border, or incorporate its military
wing into the Lebanese armed forces. One piece of advice that
has not been heard sufficiently, and that strikes us as eminently
sensible and relevant, is to learn from Hizbullah’s history and to
emulate those aspects of its ways that could help the people of
this region live more productive, peaceful lives.
“Hizbullah did not suddenly materialize magically on a Persian
carpet or a divine edict. The organization methodically built
itself up and sharpened its capabilities in all fields over a period
of years. The core of its success is its capacity to identify the
real needs of its constituents, meet those needs systematically
through an efficient network of staff and managers, and not to
waste time bragging about the fact in public….
“Others in Lebanon have achieved similar success, in fields such
as medicine, engineering, the arts, banking and many others.
This is not a story of particularly Shiite values or religious
motivation. It is a narrative of professionalism, and its
consequences – of individuals who collectively identify a need,
define a goal, plan a strategy and get the job done. Hizbullah
happens to be the Lebanese organization that has taken this
degree of professionalism to the highest degree of impact on the
public – good or bad impact, depending on your perspective.
Politically, Hizbullah will be challenged, engaged, opposed and
long debated. Organizationally and logistically, it has historic
lessons to teach all other Arabs in the country and the region.
Those Arabs, including the Lebanese, should be alert enough to
recognize the rare capacity for efficacy that Hizbullah has
developed, and apply it in those crucial fields of public life and
national development that have suffered so much mediocrity in
the recent past.”
Michael Young / Daily Star, Aug. 17, 2006
“Near the end of his speech on Monday, Hizbullah’s secretary
general, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, began sounding, ominously,
like a president. I say ominously, because Nasrallah has not been
elected president, though the current tenant of that office [Ed.
Syria’s lackey Emile Lahoud] does make us pine for better. In
outlining his vision of a stronger state, the Hizbullah leader
plainly implied he intended to help reshape that state, and how
else would he do so except by bending it around his own party’s
priorities? ….
“Then on Tuesday we heard Bashar Assad effectively call for a
coup d’etat against the March 14 majority. [Ed. the post-Rafik
Hariri democracy movement from 2005.] The Syrian president
declared that Hizbullah should transform its military ‘victory’ in
the South into a political victory in Beirut, and accused March 14
of being the intended beneficiaries of Israel’s onslaught….
“So what did Nasrallah mean by a strong state? You have to
imagine that he was in part thinking of his ‘defensive plan,’
whereby Lebanon would essentially ask Hizbullah to be a
vanguard in facing down permanent Israeli threats. But since
that plan has gone nowhere, since it effectively brought Israel
back into Lebanon, Hizbullah must have a newer version in
hand. But would the Lebanese go along with seeing their
languid Mediterranean playground transformed into a somber
garrison state?”
Ralph Peters / New York Post, Aug. 13, 2006
“The elementary fact – which far too many in the West deny – is
that our civilization has been forced into a defensive war to the
death with fanatical strains of Islam – both Shia and Sunni. We
may be on the offensive militarily, but we did not start this war –
and it’s all one war, from 9/11’s Ground Zero, through Lebanon
and Iraq, and on to Afghanistan.
“Until that ugly fact gains wide acceptance, we’ll continue to
make little decisive progress. American or Israeli, our troops are
trying. But the truth is that we’re really just holding the line.
“We have not yet begun to fight. And many among us still
dream of avoiding this war altogether.
“It can’t be done. Because our enemies – Hizbullah, al Qaeda,
Islamist militias, regimes in Iran, Syria and elsewhere – are
determined to confront us.
“We’re going to learn the hard way. But we’re going to learn.”
Ralph Peters / New York Post, Aug. 17, 2006
“Israel’s rep for toughness is in tatters. Hizbullah triumphant.
Iran cockier than ever. Syria untouched. Lebanon’s government
crippled. An orgy of anti-Semitism in the global media. Anti-
Americanism exploding among Iraqi Shias inspired by
Hizbullah.
“Thanks, Prime Minister Olmert. Great job, guy….
“Want more good news? After finally calling our enemies by the
accurate name of ‘Islamo-fascists,’ President Bush backtracked
so fast the White House lawn was smoking. Then he declared
that Israel had won.
“That’s about as credible as insisting the Titanic docked safe and
sound.
“And that ain’t all, folks. If you’re an Israel supporter – as I
proudly admit to being – get ready for some tough love. Not
only did Israel’s abysmally incompetent government start a war
impulsively and prosecute it half-heartedly, the country’s
military leadership failed, too. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan
Halutz, who was going to destroy Hizbullah from the skies,
reportedly put his main effort on the eve of war into selling off
his stock holdings before his bombs could weigh down the
market. Now that’s insider trading!
“But that was just one jerk-general dishonoring his uniform. The
serious news is that the IDF’s reserve forces were a shambles
when they mobilized. Information from an inside source reveals
that, when the reserves’ warehouses and depots were opened, key
stocks were missing – stolen.
“What was gone? Fuel, weapons, ammunition, food, spare parts
– all that a modern military needs to go to war. And I doubt it
ended up in Iceland.
“The IDF has great combat leaders and brave soldiers. But
Hizbullah’s boys proved tougher – and we can’t pretty it up. The
terrorists were willing – even eager – to die for their cause.
Israeli leaders dreaded friendly casualties. And IDF troops –
except in elite units – lacked the will to close with the enemy and
defeat him at close quarters.
“Israel tried to fight humanely. Hizbullah was out to win at any
cost. The result was inevitable….
“Oh, I almost forgot those two IDF soldiers whose kidnapping
triggered all this. But I can be forgiven, since Israel’s leaders
forgot about them long before I did: The UN resolution Olmert
welcomed makes no binding and immediate demand for their
return.
“And the world is going to let Iran build nuclear weapons. Get
ready for Round Two.”
[The following pieces are more general in scope.]
Richard Haass / Daily Star, Aug. 12, 2006
“The first thing to do is to drop the metaphor of a ‘war on
terrorism.’ Wars are mostly fought with arms on battlefields
between soldiers of opposing countries. Wars have beginnings
and ends. None of these characteristics apply here.
“Terrorism can now be carried out with boxcutters and airplanes
as easily as with explosives. Office buildings and commuter
trains and coffee shops are today’s battlefields. There are no
uniforms, and often those doing the killing are acting in the name
of causes or movements.
“There is another reason to jettison the martial vocabulary.
Terrorism cannot be defeated by arms alone. Other instruments
of policy, including intelligence, police work and diplomacy, are
likely to play a larger part in any effective policy.
“Second, it is essential to distinguish between existing and
potential terrorists. Existing terrorists need to be stopped before
they act; failing that, societies need to protect themselves and
have ready the means of reducing the consequences of successful
attacks….
“Terrorism must be stripped of its legitimacy; those carrying it
out must be shamed. No political cause justifies the taking of
innocent life. Arab and Muslim leaders need to make this clear,
be it in public pronouncements by politicians, lectures by
teachers, or fatwas by leading clerics. The initial critical reaction
on the part of several Arab governments to Hizbullah’s
kidnapping of Israeli soldiers is a sign that such criticism is
possible, as are selective comments by a number of Muslim
religious leaders.
“But terrorism also needs to be stripped of its motivation. This
translates into the U.S. and others spelling out the gains
Palestinians can expect in a peace agreement with Israel and
what Sunnis and Shiites can reasonably expect in Iraq’s new
political order. Bringing about a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon
will also help calm the emotions that will lead some to become
terrorists and others to sympathize.
“The way ahead is clear: vigilance against violence coupled with
political possibility. Such a counter-terrorism policy will not
eliminate the scourge of terrorism any more than modern
medicine can eliminate disease. But it does hold out the promise
of reducing it to a scale that will not threaten the openness,
security, or prosperity of modern societies.”
Richard Cohen / Washington Post, Aug. 15, 2006
“Democracies are in a fix. If your enemy will gladly die for his
cause while you wouldn’t think of dying for yours (not that you
even know what it is: freedom? liberty?) then clearly the fight is
not to the swift but to the suicidal. The obvious short-term
remedy is cold, lethal technology. But the reliance on high-tech
stuff has not subdued Iraq, and it utterly failed in Lebanon as
well. These are the realities of the new warfare, and if they are
the ‘birth pangs of the new Middle East,’ then what is being
produced is not some cute, babbling democracies but a hideous
monster.
“Just wait until he reaches for a nuclear weapon.”
George Will / Washington Post, Aug. 15, 2006
“Cooperation between Pakistani and British law enforcement
(the British draw upon useful experience combating IRA
terrorism) has validated John Kerry’s belief (as paraphrased by
the New York Times Magazine of Oct. 10, 2004) that ‘many of
the interdiction tactics that cripple drug lords, including
governments working jointly to share intelligence, patrol borders
and force banks to identify suspicious customers, can also be
some of the most useful tools in the war on terror.’ In a
candidates’ debate in South Carolina (Jan. 29, 2004), Kerry said
that although the war on terror will be ‘occasionally military,’ it
is ‘primarily an intelligence and law enforcement operation that
requires cooperation around the world.’
“Immediately after the London plot was disrupted, a ‘senior
administration official,’ insisting on anonymity for his or her
splenetic words, denied the obvious, that Kerry has a point. The
official told The Weekly Standard:
“ ‘The idea that the jihadists would all be peaceful, warm,
lovable, God-fearing people if it weren’t for U.S. policies strikes
me as not a valid idea. [Democrats] do not have the
understanding or the commitment to take on these forces. It’s
like John Kerry. The law enforcement approach doesn’t work.’
“This farrago of caricature and non sequitur makes the
administration seem eager to repel all but the delusional. But
perhaps such rhetoric reflects the intellectual contortions required
to sustain the illusion that the war in Iraq is central to the war on
terrorism, and that the war, unlike ‘the law enforcement
approach,’ does ‘work.’
“The official is correct that it is wrong ‘to think that somehow
we are responsible – that the actions of the jihadists are justified
by U.S. policies.’ But few outside the fog of paranoia that is the
blogosphere think like that. It is more dismaying that someone at
the center of government considers it clever to talk like that. It is
the language of foreign policy – and domestic politics –
unrealism.
“Foreign policy ‘realists’ considered Middle East stability the
goal. The realists’ critics, who regard realism as reprehensibly
unambitious, considered stability the problem. That problem has
been solved.”
Editorial / The Times (of London), Aug. 15, 2006
“Muslim leaders have now accused the (British) Government of
pursuing a foreign policy that has angered even moderate
Muslims and of willfully ignoring their protests that Britain’s
stance on Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon was stoking Muslim
militancy – an ahistorical accusation that ministers have rejected
as tantamount to blackmail. Against this background, the
Government’s promise after the latest alleged plot to step up its
engagement with Muslim leaders and the launch next month of a
new Commission on Integration and Cohesion look distinctly
unpromising.
“There are, indeed, flaws in the government strategy. The first is
to imagine there is a single Muslim ‘community.’ There is not.
Britain’s 1.6 million Muslims are split by ethnic origin, tradition,
language, sect and generation. Iraqis and Algerians differ greatly
in culture and outlook from those of Pakistani and Bangladeshi
backgrounds. Sufis, who were recently welcomed at Downing
Street, have a far more tolerant tradition than the narrow-minded,
puritanical Wahhabis.
“The second mistake is to think that Muslim ‘leaders’ can
deliver. Islam has no ecclesiastical hierarchy; leaders are
recognized by their piety and scholarship, and many are in
jealous competition with each other. Fearful of losing
credibility, no leader, therefore, can espouse the call for
‘moderation’ without appearing to compromise with secularism
and Western values or being seen as a government stooge.
Extremists always claim that they are more fundamentalist, more
pious and therefore ‘better Muslims.’ And those leaders
embraced by the British Establishment have little idea of the
frustrations, in part, motivating hopelessly underachieving young
Muslim men in the suburbs of northern cities.
“Islam needs a reformation, but many of its opinion leaders
recognize that they will not benefit from a more tolerant, less
ideological religion. They see Islam and their role in Islam as
immutable, and denounce as apostates men, and women such as
the Canadian Irshad Manji especially, who call for a renaissance
of critical thinking. But unless there is more respect for such
calls, more tolerance of women’s rights and views and less fear
in denouncing extremism, the government dialogue with Muslim
leaders will yield little. Only when moderation commands the
respect, credibility and allegiance of more Muslims will the
nexus with terrorism be challenged.”
Gerard Baker / The Times (of London), Aug. 18, 2006
“(As) the world contemplates the nervous breakdown of
American policy in the Middle East, it is something President
George Bush should surely be asking himself, or at least his
fellow Americans. How’m I doin’?
“Let’s see. You invaded Iraq because you argued you would be
able to bring about a peaceful, democratic society in the heart of
the Arab world, a step vital to the eradication of modern
terrorism. Many of us supported the project because we believed
the stakes were so high that you would not stint in committing
the resources necessary to achieve it.
“But you tried to do it on the cheap. If many of us miscalculated
the scale of the threat Iraq posed, there was no excuse for the
woeful lack of preparation by your Administration for the task of
pacifying the country….
“Well, you supported and perhaps even encouraged Israel to
invade Lebanon last month, after repeated provocations by
terrorists. The aim – a good one in principle – was to crush
Hizbullah, weaken its Syrian and Iranian sponsors and put
Lebanon on a path to long-term, terror-free stability. But when
the largely aerial campaign predictably failed and equally
predictably led to the world’s media reaching their one-sided
conclusion about Israel’s ‘aggression,’ you quickly backtracked.
You encouraged Israel to accept a ceasefire that amounts to the
country’s most serious defeat in its 57-year history.
“The result? A strengthened Hizbullah and a new Arab hero,
Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah; a reprieve for the beleaguered Assad
regime in Damascus and a further fillip to Iranian ambitions; a
strategic setback for Israel and the condemnation of Lebanon
tragically to replay the turmoil of the 1980s.
“How’m I doin’? You rightly identified Iran as the gravest threat
to the West’s long-term security and you pledged to bend U.S.
policy to ensure that it did not gain the regional hegemony that
would allow it to blackmail the world into acquiescence of its
hateful ideology. Above all, Iran would be stopped from getting
the bomb.
“The result? The despised regime in Tehran has emerged as the
true hegemonic power in the region, leeching on the battered
bodies politic of Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, elevating its
brand of Shia fundamentalism into position as the dominant force
in the Islamic world and continuing on its path towards nuclear
status….
“Now we have the worst of all worlds. Not only is the U.S.
despised around the globe, it can’t even make its supposed
hegemony work. It’s one thing to be seen as the bully in the
schoolyard; it’s quite another when people realize the bully is
actually incapable of getting anybody else to do what he wants.
It’s unpleasant when people stop respecting you, but it’s
positively terrifying when they stop fearing you.
“What we have now is a situation in which the world’s only
superpower, with the largest economic and military advantage
any country has ever enjoyed on Earth, is pinned down like
Gulliver, tormented by an army of fundamentalist Lilliputians.
“Some will say that the U.S.’s ineffectiveness is a direct result of
the loss of its ‘soft’ power. Alienating the rest of the world has
weakened its ability to achieve its objectives. Idiocies such as
Abu Ghraib and the brief flirtation with torture as a legitimate
instrument undoubtedly hurt America’s image. But I don’t truly
see how the failings in the Middle East could have been avoided
by Washington’s being nicer to foreigners. What’s been missing
is resolute leadership.
“It is hard for me to recall a time when the world was such a
scary place. No one should rejoice at America’s weakness. The
world is scarier still because of it.”
—
Wall Street
The market resumed its winning ways after a pause the previous
week. The major catalyst, aside from the ceasefire in the Middle
East, was tame inflation data in the form of producer and
consumer price figures for July that were both below
expectations; up 0.1%, ex-food and energy, for the PPI, and
up just 0.2%, core, for the CPI.
So the feeling is the Federal Reserve will not have to raise
interest rates anew when it gathers September 20, though the
Board will have August inflation data to ponder at that time.
It also helped this week that oil prices declined, thanks in part to
BP’s shutdown at Prudhoe Bay not being quite as serious as first
thought, but crude still closed above $70 for the 9th straight
week at $71.14. What happens in the next few days regarding
Iran and the nuclear issue will be a major factor in determining
future price levels.
Gasoline futures have also been declining as the summer driving
season wraps up and with no hurricanes as yet posing a threat,
which could translate to a $2.80-$2.85 level at the pump over the
coming weeks.
But then you have housing, on which there will be a slew of data
this coming week.
For now, the National Association of Realtors said homebuilder
confidence continues to plummet, sales were off 7% in the
second quarter from 2005’s pace, housing starts were down 2.5%
for the same period, and even in Middle America, actual price
declines are not out of the ordinary.
This week we had multiple releases on California and for the six-
county Southern California market, sales in July were off a
whopping 27% from July 2005, the slowest pace since 1997, and
the median price was up just 4.9%, its slowest rate of increase in
six years.
Josh P. passed along info on San Diego County where the
median home price in July actually fell 1.8%, year-over-year.
[6% from November’s peak.] Sales here are off 30%.
And check this out in Los Angeles County. Last year at this time
there was a ratio of one condo on the market for every one sold.
Today it’s seven on the market for every one with a For Sale
sign.
Separately, the Dallas Morning News reported residential
foreclosures in North Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, are up
30% from a year ago. And yet the economy is still solid here.
But for how long? The news from retailers such as Wal-Mart
and Home Depot wasn’t exactly inspiring this week as the
companies discussed the impact of higher gasoline prices on their
key demographic, as well as the slowing housing market.
Then there’s Ford. The automaker announced it is slashing
production in North America to levels not seen since the 1980s; a
full 21% reduction in the fourth quarter. Sadly, that’s a lot of
folks who will be struggling.
The real key over the coming months is to look for further
employment weakness. If job losses start to mount across the
board, from more than just one or two segments, then recession
is a certainty.
But if employment levels stay relatively strong, we’ll muddle
through a bit longer, though that doesn’t mean the stock market
will celebrate because either way earnings are not going to be
better than current expectations the second half of this year.
That’s an overly simplistic view of things and doesn’t begin to
take into consideration the usual global hot spots and another
spike in oil.
Nor does it factor in China. This week the central bank here
raised interest rates 27 basis points (they can’t do 25….just have
to be different) in the government’s ongoing effort to rein in
growth. Specifically, officials singled out the “overly rapid
expansion in fixed-asset investment.”
Investment in projects like roads, rails, and new airport terminals
have screamed ahead 30.5% in the first seven months of the year,
while retail sales are up 13.7%, year-over-year, and industrial
production is up 16.7%.
In other words, I’ve only been off about four years in calling a
slowdown here, that’s for sure. But the government itself is
scared to death of the coming collapse. You think our Federal
Reserve has trouble negotiating a soft landing from 4% growth?
Try doing it from 10%-11%.
And I was musing this week that the Beijing Olympics are but
two years away. The last thing the commies want are massive
demonstrations by millions of unemployed around that time, but
it could just work out that way.
Street Bytes
–It was a great week for equities as the Dow Jones was up all
five days and gained 2.6% to 11381. The S&P 500 added 2.8%
to close at 1302, its highest mark since May 11, and Nasdaq
climbed 5.2% to 2163, the best week for it since May 2003. But
Nasdaq is still down 1.9% on the year.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.18% 2-yr. 4.87% 10-yr. 4.84% 30-yr. 4.97%
No mystery why bonds continued to rally. The inflation data
was nirvana and oil declined $3. Some of the housing figures
didn’t bode well either for those looking for the Fed to hike
interest rates this fall.
–It wasn’t a good week for Dell, nor has it been a good multi-
year stretch for that matter, as the computer maker had to recall
4.1 million notebook lithium batteries made by Sony because of
a fire risk, not normally a good thing. But these same Sony
batteries are also used in some Hewlett-Packard and Apple
models.
Dell also reported earnings that were far from stellar, but even
though they had pre-warned the state of the company was less
than rosy just weeks earlier, the stock was slammed anew on
word it is the subject of a SEC inquiry into its revenue
recognition methods.
–Hewlett-Packard received an awful lot of good publicity for a
meager 5% revenue gain in the second quarter; though overall
computer sales, and notebook revenues, specifically, were both
up 14% as the company continues its comeback under the
leadership of Mark Hurd. [Former CEO Carly Fiorina is home
sticking pins in her Mark Hurd bobblehead doll.]
[By the way, on Aug. 12, 1981, the personal computer was born
as IBM launched the 5150 for $1,565. It was about 650 times
slower than today’s PCs. Apple (1977) and Atari (1979) were
earlier but they failed to develop a mass market.]
–From David Reilly of The Wall Street Journal:
“When the nation’s accounting-rule makers proposed in 2004
that companies treat employee stock options as an expense that
cuts into profit, corporate executives all but stormed the
Financial Accounting Standards Board’s headquarters in
Norwalk, Conn.
“In letters and public statements, business leaders declared that
such an accounting rule would damage their bottom lines,
compromise their ability to attract talented employees and make
them less competitive against foreign rivals that didn’t face
similar requirements. Their protests failed to sway FASB; the
new rule went into effect this year.
“Now, some of the same companies that opposed it are among
those caught up in a widening probe by federal authorities of
companies that allegedly ‘backdated’ employee stock options.”
Well whaddya know. And among the latest companies to warn it
may have to restate earnings as a result of fraudulent accounting
practices is anti-virus software maker McAffee, which admits its
previously reported financial statements for the past three years
were less than honest.
Yet the backdating practice still has its defenders. The Journal’s
Holman Jenkins Jr. continues to be one, and Scott P. pointed out
to me that Larry Kudlow opined on CNBC that it was time to
“stop bashing business” when it came to all the investigations.
As Scott said, isn’t it wonderful, in essence, to be able to take a
“market mulligan.” That’s what backdating options is about,
after all.
–Google is celebrating its second anniversary as a public
company this month and Bloomberg’s Mark Gilbert points out
that insiders, shorn of all restrictions, have now sold almost 23
million shares, or about $7.4 billion of stock.
Gilbert adds that while there is nothing “evil” about this, “it is
remarkable that not a single Google insider has bought a single
share of the company in the 18 months since the IPO lock-ups
expired.”
–Toyota likes to promote itself these days as an American car
company with its large employee base here in the States, but the
fact is only 55% of U.S. sales are of autos manufactured in North
America.
–Bill Miller, portfolio manager for the Legg Mason Value Trust,
has beaten the S&P 500 for 15 straight years; but this year on a
total return basis he is down a whopping 12%. Which also
means his three-year record is now 3% below the S&P on an
annualized basis, equally dreadful. This past week happened to
be one when all manner of business publications opted to pile on,
which is only appropriate.
–As the Journal pointed out, the law recently passed by
Chicago’s City Council to mandate a much-higher minimum
wage than required by law is causing ‘big box’ retailers to
rethink their expansion plans. Both Target and Wal-Mart have
put major projects in the Chicago area on hold.
–Economist Henry Kaufman in a Journal op-ed:
“Non-financial debt in the U.S. expanded at a rate of 6% in 2001,
grew by 10% in 2005, and has been swelling at an even faster
rate this year. At this pace, debt is growing an astounding 50%
faster than GDP.
“Meanwhile, outstanding credit derivative contracts increased
from about $4 trillion at the end of 2003 to more than $17 trillion
at the end of 2005; and the large volume of financial market
activity so far this year suggests that outstanding derivative
contracts are even higher now. The recent surge of these
instruments is not just about reducing risk; it is fueling
speculation.”
Kaufman was commenting on the fact the Federal Reserve’s
moves in hiking interest rates have had little effect as both
corporations and individuals have found ways around the
traditional rules of Fed policy.
–Corporate arrogance, part XXIX: Citigroup Director Robert
Rubin said he would no longer fly for free on company aircraft
used for personal business. The former treasury secretary said
from here on he will reimburse Citigroup for personal travel.
There’s really no reason to comment further, except to nominate
him for the “Dirtball Hall of Fame.”
–Merck suffered a double whammy as a New Jersey Superior
Court judge overturned a Vioxx-related verdict from last
November because it’s since come to light the company withheld
evidence showing heart attacks could occur with use of Vioxx
less than 18 months. In a second case a New Orleans jury ruled
against Merck and ordered it to pay $51 million to a heart attack
victim in finding the company “knowingly misrepresented or
failed to disclose” information to a patient’s doctors.
–A federal judge ruled the tobacco industry had continued to
deceive the public in marketing cigarettes as “low tar” or “light”
or “natural” or with other “deceptive brand descriptors which
implicitly or explicitly convey to the smoker and potential
smoker that they are less hazardous to health than full-flavor
cigarettes.”
But Judge Gladys Kessler also ruled the industry could not be
forced to underwrite a multibillion-dollar program to help
smokers quit and so tobacco shares such as Altria’s soared.
–Indra Nooyi, 50, is taking over as CEO of PepsiCo in about two
months, replacing Steve Reinemund, 58, who is retiring.
What’s significant about Ms. Nooyi’s promotion is that she thus
becomes the leading female CEO in terms of market
capitalization.
–Worldwide, agriculture accounts for 80% of global water
consumption, with water usage increasing by six times in the past
100 years with the potential to double again by 2050, according
to experts at the International Water Management Institute.
But the institute’s director said “The water is there (to meet
needs, such as in Asia and Africa), the rainfall is there, but the
infrastructure isn’t.” [Reuters]
–Karen “hold the” Mayo Kozlowski isn’t pleased hubby Dennis
is behind bars for 8-25 years as a result of his Tyco-related
chicanery, so she’s filed for divorce seeking half the assets while
citing the marriage was “irretrievably broken.” I’ll go along with
that. The former Ms. Mayo, who met the Jack Welch-wannabe
while she was a waitress, has one problem, however. Dennis has
been ordered to pay $167 million in restitution and fines, first.
And some appreciation for that $2 million birthday party he
threw her, eh?
–My portfolio: I don’t repeat this every week but for new readers
I’m sticking with my allocation of 80% cash / 20% stocks as, for
fun, we see if the editor can beat the market in 2006.
Foreign Affairs
Iraq: July was the most violent month yet in the war, with the
morgue in Baghdad taking in 1,850 bodies or more than half the
total deaths in the country. And it’s still simmering on the border
with both Turkey and Iran as the Kurds continue to rile up these
two in what could easily escalate into a full-blown conflict.
Japan / South Korea / China / Russia: Where to begin? The
Russians shot dead a Japanese fisherman on a vessel that had
ventured into the disputed Kurile Islands territory, long claimed
by Japan but occupied by Russia, while three other fishermen
were detained as a furious government in Tokyo demanded an
apology.
The Kremlin issued a statement: “The Russian Foreign Ministry
expresses its deep regret in connection with the death of one of
the crew members…(But) it is clear that responsibility for this
incident rests with those who were directly guilty and also with
those representatives of the Japanese authorities who connive in
poaching by Japanese fishermen in Russian territorial waters.”
Earlier in the week, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi, in one of
his last official acts, visited yet again the Yasukuni Shrine that
honors Japan’s war dead, including some convicted of war
crimes. As expected, this infuriated South Korea and China
further as relations with these two have deteriorated to the worst
levels in decades.
“The Japanese prime minister’s visit to the Yasukuni shrine is a
total disrespect for the Korean government and people,” said
South Korea’s foreign minister.
Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing condemned Koizumi for
“ignoring the international community and Asian neighbors and
also the Japanese people’s concerns and objections.” Mr. Li
added the visit “gravely offends the people in countries
victimized by the war of aggression” and “undermines the
political foundation of China-Japan relations.”
But wait, there’s more… “By insisting on paying homage to the
Yasukuni Shrine where these war criminals are remembered in
disregard of the concern and opposition from the international
community, Japan’s Asian neighbors and the people in Japan,
Prime Minister Koizumi is challenging international justice and
trampling human conscience.”
Back in Seoul, President Roh said “Japan must repent sincerely
and prove clearly it will not repeat its past wrongdoing by
translating apologies into action.”
For his part, Koizumi issued a statement as part of a national
memorial service.
“Our country inflicted great loss and suffering on the peoples of
many countries, especially Asian countries.
“On behalf of the Japanese people, I would like to express deep
remorse and humbly express condolences for the victims.”
In defending his trip to Yasukuni he added, “I do not go to justify
the past war or to glorify militarism. I go with the feeling that
we should not wage war again and that we must not forget the
sacrifice of those who went to war and died.” [South China
Morning Post]
This is obviously not a small matter for the big players in the
region and it will only become a larger issue in September when
Shinzo Abe, as expected, takes over for Koizumi. Abe is going
to propose a complete overhaul of Japan’s post-World War II,
1947 pacifist constitution that would grant the military far more
power.
Internally, Japan has been debating the use of pre-emptive strikes
on North Korea following its recent missile tests. While Japan’s
military doesn’t as yet have a true capability, a majority wants it
to move fast to develop one.
Overall, whether it is Yasukuni or revamping the constitution, “A
Japan that freely talks of bombing locations in Asia brings back
some rather unpleasant memories,” as foreign policy expert John
Feffer told Defense News. “So as Japan moves to become more
‘normal’ in military affairs, expect worsening relations with its
neighbors, even as the United States tries to arm-twist allies and
adversaries alike into accepting the new reality.”
As for North Korea, there are conflicting reports on a possible
underground nuclear weapons test, an act I warned years ago
would shake the world financial markets. Whether or not it
actually does, it is sure to have an impact on U.S. mid-term
elections and perhaps Kim Jong-il is saving it for an October
surprise.
Meanwhile there is confusion over just how many died in North
Korea’s recent floods. A reputable aid organization says as
many as 54,000, while Pyongyang had earlier said “549” with
“295” missing. The International Red Cross has weighed in,
however, and believes the actual numbers are closer to the
government’s figures.
Afghanistan: I realize this is a sensitive topic, but the U.S.
military has made more than its shares of mistakes here and it’s
making it exceedingly difficult to win over the hearts and minds.
The latest incident was an airstrike that accidentally took out 10
Afghan border policemen, an act that had President Hamid
Karzai fuming. You just know these incidents receive far more
press in the local media than any suicide attacks.
Separately, if you enjoy doing heroin while reading this column
it would appear cheaper forms are on the way as Afghanistan’s
poppy crop is heading towards a record harvest, some 257,000
acres worth or about 40% more than 2005. Afghanistan
produces about 90% of the world’s poppy.
Ukraine: New Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, a former ally
of the Kremlin before he lost the presidential election to Viktor
Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution of 2004, evidently
won assurances in his first trip to Russia since taking office that
natural gas giant Gazprom will not raise prices the rest of 2006
and is amenable to negotiating a fair pact for 2007 and beyond.
This is a clear effort on the Kremlin’s part to woo Ukraine back
into its orbit. But Yanukovych is in a tough position, as
Yushchenko would not have accepted him as prime minister
without assurances Yanukovych will keep the government on a
path that favors the West on issues such as NATO membership.
United Kingdom: By a 55 / 29 margin, Brits favor profiling at
airports.
Mexico: A top drug lord was captured by U.S. authorities while
deep-sea fishing in the Pacific. No word on whether or not he
landed the big one before his capture, but some in Mexico are
skeptical as to whether he himself is really a big fish.
Random Musings
–According to the Associated Press, “As the British terror plot
was unfolding, the Bush administration quietly tried to take away
$6 million that was supposed to be spent this year developing
new explosives-detection technology.
“Congressional leaders rejected the idea, the latest in a series of
Homeland Security Department steps that have left lawmakers
and some of the department’s own experts questioning the
commitment to create better anti-terror technologies.” [New
York Post]
–New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on Vice
President Dick Cheney.
“Please, Mr. Cheney, spare us your flag-waving rhetoric about
the titanic struggle we are in and how Democrats just don’t
understand it. It is just so phony – such a patent ploy to divert
Americans from the fact that you have never risen to the
challenge of this war. You will the ends, but you won’t will the
means. What a fraud!”
I only cite this passage because it is an example of how the terms
of the debate are rapidly changing when opinion shapers such as
Friedman begin to use such language.
So imagine what it will be like if both North Korea and Iran
continue to defy both the U.S. and the world community?
–New Census data reveals the foreign-born population in South
Carolina grew 48% from 2000 to 2005, according to a
demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center. Indiana registered a
30% gain and Nebraska 34%.
Of course the vast majority of these newcomers have limited
education and limited English skills, as Haya El Nasser points
out in USA Today, but at least data such as this allows local
officials to plan better. And you can see how it’s no longer the
border states dominating the debate.
–Independent candidate Senator Joe Lieberman is kicking butt in
the early polls in Connecticut…51/27 over Democrat Ned
Lamont in one Quinnipiac survey.
–Oh, my daffy state of New Jersey, with more corruption per
capita than anywhere in the nation. [Pennsylvania is a close
second.] This week Governor Jon Corzine was forced to dismiss
his attorney general Zulima Farber after a special prosecutor
determined Farber violated ethics rule in helping her boyfriend
after a traffic stop Memorial Day weekend. Farber was the first
Hispanic selected for the post.
But why the heck Corzine ever tabbed her in the first place is
what New Jerseyans are talking about. She had twelve motor
vehicle violations on her record and had ignored various bench
warrants. And to think at one point she was considered for a seat
on the state supreme court!
Meanwhile, back on Jersey’s gang front, Jonathan Schuppe and
Mark Mueller of the Star-Ledger reported that the number of
kids becoming full-fledged gang members has soared over the
past few years. And we’re talking kids as young as six are being
recruited. Six!
“A State Police survey of law enforcement agencies in 2004
concluded New Jersey had at least 17,000 gang members. Of
those, about 2,300 were under the age of 15…..But not all
agencies responded to the survey…and one official believes the
overall number is closer to 25,000….The state Department of
Corrections alone has identified 10,700 committed gang
members in prisons, halfway houses or on parole.”
–I’m disturbed over the potential addition of three new planets to
our solar system; like who will be responsible for assimilating
them and at what cost?
–Finally, yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. The U.S. Fish
and Wildlife Service issued a new rule making it easier to kill
Canada geese! Airports, public health officials and landowners
can basically round up these totally disgusting and foul fowl at
will. There are an estimated 1.15 million in the U.S., including
90,000 here in New Jersey.
Sorry to end on such a violent note, but I would like to be able to
take a walk in the park without worrying about tracking disease
back into my home. And, yes, my faith in our form of
government has been restored. At least for this week I’m no
longer yearning for a monarchy.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $621
Oil, $71.14
Returns for the week 8/14-8/18
Dow Jones +2.6% [11381
S&P 500 +2.8% [1302]
S&P MidCap +3.5%
Russell 2000 +4.8%
Nasdaq +5.2% [2163]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-8/18/06
Dow Jones +6.2%
S&P 500 +4.3%
S&P MidCap +1.7%
Russell 2000 +5.7%
Nasdaq -1.9%
Bulls 40.9
Bears 36.6 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Note: There is one place in the world, it seems, where accessing
the Net is virtually impossible; that being Western Ireland and
the town of Lahinch that is like a second home to me. So I’m
heading there this week for a little golf and will be unable to
respond to your e-mails until my return.
I also will not be posting until late Sunday evening next time,
though I imagine many of you will welcome the fact I plan on
making it mercifully brief.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
