[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Following are various opinions and thoughts on the anniversary
of 9/11 as well as the ongoing war on terror.
President George W. Bush, speech to the nation, 9/11/06
“Since the horror of 9/11, we have learned a great deal about the
enemy. We have learned that they are evil and kill without
mercy – but not without purpose. We have learned that they
form a global network of extremists who are driven by a
perverted vision of Islam – a totalitarian ideology that hates
freedom, rejects tolerance, and despises all dissent. And we have
learned that their goal is to build a radical Islamic empire where
women are prisoners in their homes, men are beaten for missing
prayer meetings, and terrorists have a safe haven to plan and
launch attacks on America and other civilized nations. The war
against this enemy is more than a military conflict. It is the
decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century, and the calling
of our generation.
“Our Nation is being tested in a way that we have not been since
the start of the Cold War. We saw what a handful of our enemies
can do with box-cutters and plane tickets. We hear their threats
to launch even more terrible attacks on our people. And we
know that if they were able to get their hands on weapons of
mass destruction, they would use them against us. We face an
enemy determined to bring death and suffering into our homes.
America did not ask for this war, and every American wishes it
were over. So do I. But the war is not over – and it will not be
over until either we or the extremists emerge victorious. If we do
not defeat these enemies now, we will leave our children to face
a Middle East overrun by terrorist states and radical dictators
armed with nuclear weapons. We are in a war that will set the
course for this new century – and determine the destiny of
millions across the world.”
Rudy Giuliani / USA Today
“One of the main reasons for the founding of the United States
was to establish freedom, particularly freedom of religion. Our
enemies oppose freedom, particularly freedom of religion. This
was made shockingly clear by the recent gunpoint ‘conversion’
of the two kidnapped journalists in Gaza. The terrorists don’t
want to understand and co-exist alongside Western democracies.
There are those over the past 30 years, and even to this day, who
want to negotiate with the fanatic Islamic terrorists. But the
fanatics don’t want to negotiate. They want to establish a world
in which everyone practices a perverted version of their religion.
They want to return to a time before the modern age, to a world
in which women have no rights and religious dissent is met with
death.
“These attacks are about a radical form of Islam that views our
very existence as a grave threat. This is not a debate over values
or policies. This is not a border dispute. This is a war over the
preservation and expansion of the modern world.
“We must realize the depth of the danger we face and the
determination of our enemy. We have increased attention on air
security. We have extended the USA Patriot Act, which has
given us a greater opportunity to detect terrorist plots before they
occur. We now receive much more help from other countries,
such as Pakistan, including banks sharing information about
money flow inside terrorist organizations. That information was
vital to revealing this summer’s airline terror plot in Britain.
“As we continue to focus on what we’ve learned, we must also
focus on goals for securing our future. We must improve our
intelligence. We must commit to restoring a human intelligence
base. We must increase our port security and expand the
cooperation of other countries. We must ensure at least a
minimum level of emergency preparation in every community in
America.
“If we remain steadfast in our commitment to these goals, we
will succeed. We will make the world safe for the practice of all
religions, including Islam. After all, the majority of Muslims are
peaceful and law-abiding – they too have been victimized by the
radical minority.
“On the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001, I hope the world will
visit the hallowed ground of the World Trade Center and see a
soaring memorial to those who were killed there, as well as those
in Washington, D.C., and Shanksville, Pa. A fitting tribute will
pay honor not only to the victims of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001,
but also to the spirit of freedom.
“There is a reason thousands of rescue personnel rushed into
enormous danger to save men and women who were strangers to
them. The reason was respect for the value of human life. It can
also be described as love – the kind of love expressed in a
biblical phrase, ‘Man has no greater love than to lay down his
life for his friend.’ This respect for human life and love for
others, including strangers, form the core of Western civilization.
It is the driving force that helped us create freedom.
“What I learned from Sept. 11, 2001, is that free people have
much greater strength than they realize. Ultimately, free people
prevail over oppression.”
Ralph Peters / New York Post
“America is much stronger today than we were five years ago.
We have new homeland-security structures up and running,
improved intelligence agencies – and the most experienced
military in the world.
“The dishonest nature of domestic politics and the media’s
irresponsibility obscure the fact that no one – not even the
terrorists – now believes that our enemies can win a global
victory. The terrorists are no longer fighting for conquest –
they’re running a salvage operation.
“Does that mean everything’s perfect? Of course not. As noted
above, some terrorists will manage to hit us again. But if attempt
No. 500 succeeds, it doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth stopping the
other 499. Yet, after the next attack, we’ll hear no end of trash-
talk about how the War on Terror ‘failed.’
“The truth is that we’re winning. Hands down. We just can’t
afford to revert to yesteryear’s weakness and indecision.
“What should we worry about? Plenty. First, the unscrupulous
nature of those in the media who always discover a dark cloud in
the brightest silver lining. They’re terror’s cheerleaders.
Second, the rabid partisanship infecting our political system –
when ‘getting Bush’ is more important than protecting our
country, something’s wrong.
“A third concern is the Internet’s empowerment of fanatics,
conspiracy-theorists and all of the really good haters – on both
extremes of the political spectrum. If there’s one thing all
responsible citizens, conservative, centrist or liberal, should
agree on, it’s that all extremism is un-American.
“On this September morning, let us dedicate ourselves to living
for the values the hijackers feared: freedom, tolerance, human
dignity – and the invincible strength of our democratic society.
The greatest tribute we can pay to the dead of 9/11 is to be good
Americans.”
Editorial / Washington Post
“In the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11, Mr. Bush’s declared
enemy was al-Qaeda and the allied Taliban regime in
Afghanistan; later he defined an ‘axis of evil’ that lumped
together Communist North Korea, Iran and the secular Iraqi
dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. Now he perceives both al-
Qaeda and Iran, as well as affiliates like the Lebanese Hizbullah
movement, as collectively making up ‘a worldwide network of
radicals that use terror.’
“One problem with this view is that it acknowledges but skates
over the enormous differences between Sunni terrorist networks
and Iran. In Iraq, al-Qaeda is literally at war with proxies of
Iran, which in turn is a sworn enemy of the Taliban. Mr. Bush
asserts that ‘the Shia and Sunni extremists represent different
faces of the same threat’; in fact the Iranian regime does not
threaten, as does al-Qaeda, to launch devastating attacks on the
American homeland. Its interests are more nationalist and
regional than ideological and global. There is a wide gap inside
the regime between extremists like President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and moderates like former president Mahammed
Khatami, who on Thursday delivered a speech at Washington
National Cathedral calling for dialogue between the West and the
Islamic world.
“The danger is that Mr. Bush’s flawed definitions will lead to
flawed strategy. While the threat that Iran will acquire nuclear
weapons must be confronted – as should the nuclear threat from
North Korea – Tehran’s Islamic doctrine has not proved a major
danger to the world, or even the region, over the last quarter-
century. Mr. Bush rightly said that ‘it is foolish to think that you
can negotiate with’ al-Qaeda. But as the State Department’s
recent diplomacy reflects, negotiation – or long-term
containment – may be the best option for Iran.
“Mr. Bush seems to understand better than he did five years ago
that diplomacy and the promotion of democratic values are as
important to winning the war as military action. But in insisting
on maintaining the CIA’s secret prisons and in asking Congress
to cancel some of the protections from abuse granted prisoners
by the Geneva Conventions, he risks perpetuating and
compounding one of his greatest errors. As senior U.S.
generals now state publicly, abusive interrogation techniques are
ineffective and counterproductive; they do not produce reliable
intelligence. At the same time, they make it impossible for the
United States to obtain full cooperation from key allies in Europe
and elsewhere, damage its reputation round the world, and make
it more likely that captured Americans will be tortured.
“Mr. Bush could do the country a great service by using the
remainder of his term to put the war against terrorism on a
sustainable long-tem course. But lumping disparate threats
together, insisting on tactics that alienate allies and violate
fundamental American values, and using the war as a partisan
bludgeon makes for an unpromising start.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The last year has seen some setbacks, which go far to explain
the overglum mood surrounding the current anniversary. Yet it
is by no means clear that those failures owe to some flaw in the
overall U.S. strategy as opposed to tactical mistakes and the
simple fact that we are fighting a determined, resourceful enemy
that is itself adapting to our moves. The victory for Hamas, the
troubles in Iraq, the uncertain outcome in the recent war in
Lebanon, and above all the renewed aggression of Iran all pose
major challenges. Mr. Bush’s party may pay a price for those
setbacks in November, though the president has begun to fight
back.
“We’re glad he is doing so, because the great challenge for this
presidency is to remind Americans that the threat they face is
undimmed even as the events of September 11 recede in
memory….
“On September 12, 2001, we wrote with some optimism about
the ‘resilience’ of modern industrial democracies. That resilience
has been proved time and again the past five years, and the
challenge is to prove it again for the next five, or 50, if that’s
what victory requires.”
—
So where do I stand? We’re losing. We have failed thus far in
Iraq; we blew an opportunity to begin to reshape the landscape
throughout the region by not immediately establishing law and
order there. We have lost the battle for the hearts and minds
through episodes such as Abu Ghraib, which many Americans
still fail to understand in terms of the long-range ramifications.
Iran’s influence has grown exponentially and they’re on the
verge of a bomb, while North Korea’s Orcs continue to slave
away in their own bombworks, and Afghanistan is on the verge
of becoming a failed state.
And then there’s the issue of Lebanon, where the White House is
guilty of gross negligence in failing to even lift a finger for the
fledgling government there, post-Hariri’s assassination, which in
turn led directly to the incredibly destructive war between
Hizbullah and Israel. And to make matters worse, once Lebanon
was destroyed we had the gall to offer help in rebuilding it,
which now isn’t even forthcoming.
But are we safer here in America? Yes. Absolutely. And in the
broader war on terror, the United States has taken down many
of al-Qaeda’s senior leaders, though even here the recent
agreement between the Pakistani government and the tribes in
Waziristan hardly bodes well for any further high-level captures
there, in a region where everyone knows bin Laden and Zawahiri
are hanging out.
But is President Bush, as he said once again at his press
conference on Friday, “doing everything necessary to protect the
people”? No.
And that’s the crime of it all. Yes, we’ve improved security in
some areas, but not nearly enough with regards to two big
targets, air cargo and the ports. Then you have items like I
brought up the other week, where Amtrak has something like 300
police officers…for the entire system. Or security at our
chemical plants. [I think the nuclear ones are reasonably secure
from what I’ve studied.]
In the end, though, it all comes down to weapons of mass
destruction. Critics of the White House say the administration is
continually scaring the American public, but as one who was
worried about this kind of attack before the first attempt to take
down the World Trade Center in 1993, you will never find me in
that camp.
Another view, one I don’t totally share, from Natan Sharansky,
former deputy prime minister of Israel and current member of
parliament, in an op-ed for the Los Angeles Times.
“In the summer of 2000, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin
told me a story that I have been unable to get out of my mind.
We were meeting in the Kremlin, and I raised the grave danger
facing the world from the transfer of missile technology and
nuclear material to the Iranians. In Putin’s view, however, the
real danger came not from an Iranian nuclear-tipped missile or,
for that matter, from the lethal arsenal of any nation-state.
“ ‘Imagine a sunny and beautiful day in a suburb of Manhattan,’
he said. ‘An elderly man is tending to the roses in his small
garden with his nephew visiting from Europe. Life seems
perfectly normal. The following day, the nephew, carrying a
suitcase, takes a train to Manhattan. Inside the suitcase is a
nuclear bomb.’
“The threat, Putin explained to me a year before 9/11, was not
from this or that country but from their terrorist proxies – aided
and supported quietly by a sovereign state that doesn’t want to
get its hands dirty – who will perpetrate their attacks without a
return address. This scenario became real when al Qaeda plotted
its 9/11 attacks from within Afghanistan and received support
from the Taliban government. Then it happened again this
summer, when Iran was allowed to wage a proxy war through
Hizbullah in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. But this
time, the international community’s weak response dealt the
global war on terror a severe blow….
“(Iran) has paid no price for its proxy’s actions. No military
strikes on Iranian targets, no sanctions, no threat whatsoever to
Iranian interests. On the contrary, in the wake of the war, there
have been renewed calls in the democratic world to ‘engage’
Iran.
“Symptomatic of the moral myopia in the West is the farce
worthy of Orwell: Former Iranian President Mohammad
Khatami, under whom students were tortured after a 1999
crackdown at Tehran University and whose rule was marked by
the continued stifling of dissent, spoke Sunday at Harvard’s
Kennedy School of Government on ‘Ethics of Tolerance in the
Age of Violence.’
“The Iranian regime’s intentions are clear. It calls for ‘wiping
Israel off the map’ and tells its followers to ‘imagine a world
without America.’ It seeks to dominate the Middle East. By
failing to hold Iran accountable for its brazen support of
Hizbullah, the free world has undermined a central pillar in the
war on terror and given the Iranian regime a huge weapon for
achieving its ambitions. Now the mullahs know they can attack
a democratic country with impunity.
“Considering the apocalyptic fanaticism of Iran’s leader, it is an
open question whether the current regime in Tehran is capable of
being deterred through the threat of mutually assured destruction.
But given how the world has responded to Hizbullah, the point
may be academic. For surely Iran would be better served by
using proxies to wage a nuclear war against Israel. And if there
is no accountability, why stop with Israel?
“The road to a suitcase bomb in Tel Aviv, Paris or New York
just got a whole lot shorter.”
I noted in the initial days following 9/11 that it was going to be a
dirty war requiring creative thinking, especially in terms of
players like Russia. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was
one in particular who touted this theme, but then we didn’t
follow through.
Fyodor Lukyanov, op-ed in The Moscow Times
“President Vladimir Putin’s instantaneous and flawless reaction
to (9/11) created the possibility for a fundamental change in
Russia’s relations with the United States and with the West as a
whole. The Kremlin sided with the White House, offering moral
support and practical assistance. It is not important what was
guiding Putin – sincere solidarity with the United States, hope for
preferential political and economic treatment, the conviction that
terrorism represents an enormous threat, or the desire to
legitimize its own campaign in Chechnya, as many of its
detractors claimed. Whatever the case, it was a sweeping
gesture.
“Later events showed that the administration of U.S. President
George W. Bush took this reaction as a given. Washington was
unable or unwilling to understand that gestures from another
great power – and one with interests very much at odds with
those of the United States – should be answered in kind. The
overriding impression was that the shock of 9/11 deprived the
United States of its capacity to pick up on subtle diplomatic
gestures. The nation and its leaders focused entirely on their
own fears and on the measures needed to overcome them. Here
we are talking not just about U.S. relations with Russia, but the
United States’ behavior in the international arena in general,
including toward its allies.
“The chance for a breakthrough in U.S.-Russian relations that
existed following 9/11 and roughly until fall 2002 was missed.
Washington calmly and deliberately put into effect its own
agenda, disregarding outside objections and failing to take
seriously whether its agenda matched the interests of the rest of
the world.
“The greatest destructive potential for relations between Russia
and the United States – and for Moscow’s pro-Western course in
the international arena in general – was the Bush administration’s
main ideological tenet of tying global security issues to the cause
of advancing democracy. Outside partners found it hard to
swallow a neoconservative ideology that organically combined
genuine democratic messianism with adherence to definite U.S.
geopolitical ambitions. In this sense, Russia was a particularly
difficult case….
“In the final analysis, Russia has come to the conclusion that the
global war on terrorism is simply a new arena for unfolding
global competition, and the accompanying phenomenon, labeled
‘promoting democracy,’ is a tool in that competition. Thus,
Russia should not just sit back, but take advantage of the
opportunities presented by today’s complex global situation.
Arms sales to Iran, Syria and Venezuela, for example, are often
seen as anti-U.S. political moves. In fact, they are pure business
and not at all personal, especially given that Russian capitalism is
young and rapacious, as young capitalism was everywhere else
in the world two centuries ago. If there is a quick buck to be
made somewhere, that’s where we’ll make it because that’s what
everybody else does, and the only difference is that we’re more
open about it and have not yet learned how to dress greed for
gain in idealistic language.”
Again, we’re losing. But can we win?
David Brooks / New York Times, 9/14/06
[On his attendance at a briefing President Bush gave for a few
columnists on Tuesday.]
“(Bush) opened the session by declaring, ‘Let me just first tell
you that I’ve never been more convinced that the decisions I
made are the right decisions,’ and he grew more self-assured
from there. I interview politicians for a living, and every time I
brush against Bush I’m reminded that this guy is different.
There’s none of that hunger for approval that is common to the
breed. This is the most inner-directed man on the globe….
“All of which prepares him to think about the war on terror as a
generations-long struggle. He asked us to think about what the
world could look like 50 years from now, with Islamic radicals
either controlling the world’s oil supply or not. ‘I firmly believe
that some day American presidents will be looking back at this
period in time, saying, ‘Thank goodness they saw the vision,’’ he
said.
“Sitting between busts of Lincoln and Churchill, he continued,
‘My hope is to leave behind something – foundations and
institutions that will enable future presidents to be able to more
likely make the tough decisions that they’re going to have to
make.’ [Ed. Huh?]
“ ‘Ideological struggles take time,’ he said, explaining the
turmoil in Iraq and elsewhere. He said the events of weeks or
months were just a nanosecond compared with the long course of
this conflict. He was passionate on the need for patience and
steadfastness. He talked about ‘inviolate’ principles written upon
his heart: ‘People want you to change. It’s tactics that shift, but
the strategic vision has not, and will not, shift.’
“He was less personal and less assertive when talking about
those tactical decisions made day to day.
“We are now at a moment when many of the people who support
his long-term goals, and who have stuck with him as the situation
in Iraq has deteriorated, fear the war is irreparably lost. The
general view among many Republicans is that Bush set out grand
goals, but never committed resources commensurate with the
task….
“(On) troop levels and other tactical issues, Bush defers to Gen.
George Casey, who is in Iraq. He asks questions but does not
contradict the experts. If Casey asked for two more divisions
tomorrow, Bush would deliver, regardless of the political
consequences. But Casey does not ask (and maybe none are
available).
“What if Casey is wrong?
“ ‘Then I picked the wrong general,’ Bush says bluntly. ‘If he’s
wrong, I’m wrong.’
“When asked if he should have expanded the military back in
2003, to give the current commanders more manpower, Bush
used words that were uncharacteristically jargon-ridden: ‘The
notion of warfare has changed, and therefore, we’re modulizing
the army so that it becomes more operational and easier to
move.’ That sounds more like a transformation briefing paper
than the president.
“In other words, when Bush is strategizing goals, he is
assertiveness on stilts. When he is contemplating means, he
defers to authority.
“And the sad truth is, there has been a gap between Bush’s
visions and the means his administration has devoted to realize
them. And when tactics do not adjust to fit the strategy, then the
strategy eventually gets diminished to fit the tactics.
“Or worse.”
Iraq…Iran…Afghanistan…Lebanon…Israel
President George W. Bush, Sept. 11, 2006
“On September the 11th, we learned that America must confront
threats before they reach our shores – whether those threats come
from terrorist networks or terrorist states. I am often asked why
we are in Iraq when Saddam Hussein was not responsible for the
9/11 attack. The answer is that the regime of Saddam Hussein
was a clear threat. My administration, the Congress and the
United Nations saw the threat – and after 9/11, Saddam’s regime
posed a risk that the world could not afford to take. The world is
safer because Saddam Hussein is no longer in power. And now
the challenge is to help the Iraqi people build a democracy that
fulfills the dreams of the nearly 12 million Iraqis who came out
to vote in free elections last December….
“We will not leave until this work is done. Whatever mistakes
have been made in Iraq, the worst mistake would be to think that
if we pulled out, the terrorists would leave us alone. They will
not leave us alone. They will follow us. The safety of America
depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad.”
This was a controversial passage in the president’s speech as
Democrats complained Bush was politicizing the 9/11
anniversary.
Neocon William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard, took
the other side and went even further in an op-ed for the
Washington Post.
“Administration spokesmen have jettisoned talk of ‘staying the
course’ in Iraq in favor of ‘adapting to win.’ If those words are
to have meaning, the administration can’t simply stay the course
on current troop levels. We need to adapt to win the battle of
Baghdad. We need substantially more troops in Iraq. Sending
them would be a courageous act of presidential leadership
appropriate to the crisis we face.”
That’s not likely to happen and this week our military said it was
at risk of losing western Iraq, Anbar province. The bloodshed in
Baghdad increased again as well.
But more importantly for the long run, support for a new
constitution that basically calls for three autonomous regions
appears to be waning because the Sunnis see themselves as being
cut out of the process and with no guarantee they will receive a
fair share of the oil revenues. The Shiites, on the other hand,
want autonomy like the Kurds have. And as for the Kurds,
they’ve been removing the Iraqi flag from their government
buildings. [They also continue to wreak havoc in Turkey with
another terrorist attack there killing 10 last week.]
Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki traveled to Tehran. This
is how the Tehran Times covered the visit.
“Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed
Ali Khamenei said here on Wednesday that Iran feels obliged to
support the Iraqi government and nation in practice.
“ ‘We hope that one day the Iraqi nation will regain their rightful
place and take the financial and human capital of the country into
their own hands with the withdrawal of the foreigners,’
Ayatollah Khamenei told Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki….
“The Leader expressed regret over the suffering and hardships
that the Iraqis are experiencing every day, saying, ‘Some of the
hardships are related to the actions of the former dictatorship and
some are related to the presence of the occupiers in Iraq.
“ ‘With the withdrawal of the occupiers, a great proportion of
Iraq’s problems will be resolved. Therefore, we hope for their
speedy withdrawal.’”
From Hassan Hanizadeh / Tehran Times
“Iran has made the utmost efforts to help establish security in
Iraq in the 41 months since the collapse of Saddam’s
dictatorship.
“Iran’s actions have prevented the outbreak of all-out sectarian
and ethnic strife in Iraq and have also prevented the violence
from spilling over the border into neighboring countries.
“The presence of the occupiers in Iraq has hindered the process
of establishing security in the country, making it one of the most
serious challenges facing the Iraqi government.
“In addition, the occupying forces are trying to justify their
presence in Iraq by fanning the flames of sectarian strife and
fomenting insecurity, whereas their withdrawal would allow the
Iraqi government to implement its national plan to establish a
consensus between all Iraqi factions.”
Nothing like a little propaganda, eh?
On the nuclear weapons program issue, Russia and China won’t
even support strong language against Iran for failure to suspend
uranium enrichment, even though the Aug. 31 deadline to do so
is long past. This is the UN “Security” Council?
Next week Iran’s President Ahmadinejad will be in New York,
along with the likes of Presidents Karzai and Musharraf.
Which leads me to Afghanistan, where the violence has been
unrelenting and NATO forces, mostly the Brits and Canadians,
are under constant fire as they heroically tackle the job of rooting
out the Taliban from their southern stronghold. The Canadians
have lost 16 soldiers in just the past three months.
NATO’s military leaders have called for more contributions, yet
Turkey said ‘no,’ a distressing development. Finally Poland said
it would contribute 1,000 but they won’t be on the ground until
February and it needs to be noted the U.S. is looking to cut its
own force further as, it was hoped, NATO’s troop levels rose.
Former presidential candidate John Kerry made some hay this
week by calling for more U.S. forces in Afghanistan, while
continuing to advocate a deadline for Iraq.
Vice President Dick Cheney said last Sunday on “Meet the
Press,” “The fact is we’ve made major progress in Afghanistan.”
No we haven’t. Yes, we have a democratically elected
government, and that is indeed an accomplishment, but at the
same time President Karzai’s good friend, a high-ranking
provincial governor, was assassinated and then at the man’s
funeral a suicide bomber killed another six. That’s symptomatic
of recent developments. Plus we all know the opium story and
the Taliban has obviously returned.
Even more worrisome was the comment of a British general on
the ground there; “The battle for the hearts and minds is being
lost.”
And to top it all off we had the release of a surveillance photo
showing a group of up to 200 Taliban fighters in southern
Afghanistan, amassed for a funeral, and some moron in the
Pentagon, or on the ground, said we couldn’t take them out.
On to Lebanon, a rapidly failing state. British Prime Minister
Tony Blair, himself failed, was booed vociferously on a visit to
Beirut. Shia/Hizbullah supporter and Parliament Speaker Nabbi
Berri blasted Blair and Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah called Blair
“persona non grata” for his support of President Bush and the
Israeli assault on his country. What irks the Lebanese is the fact
that Blair, like Bush, was slow to demand an immediate
ceasefire.
For his part Hizbullah’s Hassan Nasrallah said “This Tony Blair
is an associate in the murdering,” and said this of Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora who welcomed Blair.
“You bring (Blair) home to me and to my family and you give
him a great reception? If there was an invitation extended to
Tony Blair to visit then this is a national disaster.”
Siniora admitted he had indeed invited Blair.
And so what we have here is the beginning of the end of the
democratically elected government of Lebanon. It would seem
it’s only a matter of time before the Siniora government
succumbs to a coup, even as key players like Hizbullah and
Amal say there are no plans to topple the government.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt begs to differ, and he brings up the
point that any change is really about protecting those responsible
for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, i.e., Syria. Jumblatt also
called for the reinforcement of the Lebanese Army, but don’t
look for Washington to act too speedily on the request.
There were a few good developments on the building of a UN
peacekeeping force, however. France contributed a heavy tank
division and Germany is deploying 2,400 naval personnel to
patrol the waters. [But no ground troops because the last thing
Germany is about to chance is a conflict with Israeli troops…you
understand, something about the history between the two
peoples.]
On the other side, though, Iran is supplying devastated South
Lebanon with new power generators, so guess whose loyalty
they’re winning over?
As for Israel itself, Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas could soon be squaring off in direct
negotiations as Abbas and Hamas’ Prime Minister Haniyeh
reached an agreement on a coalition government, with Abbas
being granted the power to deal with Israel directly as the
Palestinians’ representative. In turn the Palestinians are hoping
the international community will finally lift the financial
sanctions levied on it after the election of the Hamas
government. Virtually zero foreign aid has been forthcoming
ever since.
—
Wall Street
On 9/2 in this space, as oil closed the week at $69.24, I
concluded falling prices “could be a huge boon for Republicans
come November.” As oil continues to swoon, now $63.33, this
is becoming clearer and clearer. $2.50 at the pump (as it’s
approaching in most places), and soon to be lower, certainly
makes us feel better as consumers and while the president
deserves zero credit for the decline, it’s kind of funny how many
want to give it to him. [And no, there is no conspiracy.]
By now you all know the reasons why we’re all getting a break
these days, including on natural gas. No hurricanes is the biggest
reason. I’ll tell you what really surprises me in this regard. We
know the Gulf of Mexico is like a giant warm bath, so why
hasn’t one developed right there? I mean hurricanes form in the
Gulf all the time. Frankly, it’s kind of astounding, and great for
Gulf coast residents.
So with zero hurricane-related disruptions, and with crude and
other products in record supply in terms of inventories, the other
two big reasons for the price having held above $70 until now
are speculators, of which there are many, and Iran.
Speculators come and go, and at light speed, but the Iranian
situation is far from disappearing from the radar screen. It’s just
as if the controllers have turned away for a moment and we can
only hope that when they refocus one of them doesn’t go, “Uh,
what’s that blip?”
Of course I’m being a little ornery here, but you get the point.
As I noted in the opening discussion Iran is proceeding on its
merry way to nukedom and no one, least of all Russia and China,
is stopping it.
But just as in the case of North Korea, after a while it’s easy to
take your eye off the ball. Baseball has its dog days of summer
and in geopolitical terms these past few weeks, since the Aug. 31
deadline for Iran to stop its uranium enrichment, have been the
world’s equivalent.
There is another factor tugging on oil, however, and that is the
threat of a slowdown in global economic activity. OPEC, the
International Energy Agency, and the Energy Information
Administration have all been ratcheting down their demand
forecasts for the 4th quarter and 2007. Nothing drastic, mind you,
but enough to make one think; what would happen if the United
States tips into recession?
Seeing as I’m in the recession camp (not a good one to be in this
week, I’ll admit), and believing demand could drop rather
significantly, I’m staying away from my once favorite sector, oil
stocks. But, at the same time I’m beginning to lick my chops
because at some point they’ll bottom.
For now, though, consumers are feeling better, as evidenced not
only in some of the sentiment numbers but also in politically
oriented surveys.
Plus, the data on August consumer prices was tame and retail
sales rose (albeit tepidly) when the reverse was forecast. Throw
in the decline in energy prices and there is zero reason for the
Federal Reserve to raise interest rates when it meets this coming
week.
Actually, the IMF raised its estimate for global growth in 2007
from 4.9% to 5.1%. The United States is expected to grow at a
2.9% clip (nirvana in terms of stocks and bonds as it’s far from
too hot so the Fed would continue to be held at bay), while China
is still looking at 10% growth and India 7.3%, all with little
inflation, again, according to the IMF.
Goodness gracious. Is the IMF worried about anything? Well
actually they are….U.S. real estate, and the potential the global
property bubble could unwind across the board.
Back in the U.S., housing analyst Ivy Zelman of Credit Suisse,
who has been bang on in her analysis thus far, said “We believe
that the housing market is still in the early innings of a hard
landing that will likely take several years to develop.”
We’re an impatient lot, of course. Some of us want our crash
now.
Street Bytes
–The stair-step pattern in the markets continued. Since the week
ending Aug. 4, we haven’t had two straight in the same direction
for the Dow Jones. But as was the case this week, the gains have
far outweighed the losses. This time the Dow gained 1.5% to
close at 11560, or a mere 162 points from the all-time high of
Jan. 2000. Nasdaq is back to 2235, just 2800 shy of its record
mark…..sorry.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.10% 2-yr. 4.86% 10-yr. 4.79% 30-yr. 4.91%
The U.S. trade deficit hit another record in July, $68 billion, but
this time concern was muted because of the fall in oil prices
since that date which will lead to lower import figures in future
data.
As for the U.S. budget deficit, it was $64.6 billion in August, or
26% higher than a year ago, but with one month left in the fiscal
year the overall figure for 2006 is expected to still come in well
below ‘05’s $318 billion.
Individual income-tax receipts are up 12%, year over year, while
corporate income taxes are up 29%; but as to the latter you’ve
learned this is totally because of the huge profits turned in by the
oil companies.
On the CPI front, while the figures for August were tame,
ex-food and energy the core CPI is up 2.8%, year over year;
still above the Fed’s target for price stability.
–Energy bits:
Both Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil officials attempted to
refute the peak oil adherents, saying they’ve heard this tune
before and the world is still awash in black gold.
I used to agree with this, though over the past two years I’ve
been converted to the Church of Depleting Fields. [We throw
good ‘end of the world’ parties, by the way.]
Now granted, today’s technology, as best exhibited the other
week by the deepwater find in the Gulf of Mexico, could enable
us to squeeze oil out of earth’s last molten magma, I guess, but it
ain’t cheap to drill for it and unless the price of crude remains
high there is zero incentive for the oil companies to commit vast
sums.
That’s point one. Point two is I keep looking at the situation in
Mexico, where production continues to slide, or the North Sea,
also in decline. Again, technology will help, but the costs are
enormous.
Other musings:
I haven’t turned on my AC or heat for over five weeks now at
home. It’s been this way throughout the entire New York area.
Like, hey, no wonder natural gas is at $5, off its December high
of $15.48.
And the Los Angeles Times had an interesting piece on the
shortage of workers, rigs and seismic equipment. There were
4,000 rigs in 1981 and today the number is less than half this.
People forget the down periods in this business. Like the 15-year
one that began in the early 1980s. Over one million were laid
off.
Lastly, here’s an example of the economics in the industry today,
also courtesy of the L.A. Times. To drill its recent Gulf of
Mexico test well that led to claims of a giant find, Chevron paid
$216,000 a day to lease Transocean’s Cajun Express rig. The fee
will rise to $460,000 a day from 2007 through 2010.
So when it’s good, it’s good. When it’s bad, it’s time to go back
to school.
–Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson attempted to put his stamp on
U.S.-China trade relations. In what was labeled a “landmark
speech” by the Financial Times, Paulson said he would tell his
counterparts in Beijing during an upcoming trip that “We want
you to succeed.”
“The United States has a huge stake in a prosperous, stable
China,” said Paulson, “a China able and willing to play its part as
a global economic leader.”
“The biggest risk we face is not that China will overtake the U.S.
but that China will not move ahead with the reforms necessary to
sustain its growth.”
Paulson emphasized that while he appreciates China’s long-term
issues, it needs to “show more flexibility in the short term.”
And speaking of the here and now, the U.S., European Union and
Canada are filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization
against China’s import tariffs on auto parts. It’s the first time the
three have teamed up in a dispute with Beijing.
This is what continually amazes some of us. China “has refused
to change its policy of charging an average 25% levy on
imported auto parts,” while at the same time applying a “local
content” requirement on those with factories in China – such as
General Motors, of at least 40%, which totally violates the rules
China pledged to follow when it joined the WTO in 2001. [Wall
Street Journal]
–Ford Motor Co. is offering buyout packages to all 80,000 of its
hourly workers while eliminating up to 14,000 white-collar
positions by 2008 (4,000 of which were previously announced)
as well as doing away with its dividend. As part of its
restructuring plan, Ford is following in the footsteps of General
Motors, which saw 35,000 accept its own buyout offers. GM
now says it will be able to cut about $9 billion in annual costs.
Ford is looking for similar success. Shares in Ford, however, fell
12% on the latest bad news.
–Daimler-Chrysler surprised the Street in saying it expects its
Chrysler division to lose nearly $1.5 billion in the third quarter,
far greater than initially expected. The stock fell about 7%.
–Hewlett-Packard Chairwoman Patricia Dunn announced she
will step down in January, with CEO Mark Hurd assuming the
additional slot as H-P deals with the now criminal probe into
media leaks and obtaining of reporter and director phone records,
or “pretexting.”
Christopher Byron / New York Post:
“The phone records scandal boiling up at Hewlett-Packard brings
back some intensely unpleasant and infuriating memories for this
columnist.
“Four years ago this month, my own phone records were stolen,
and in exactly the same way the phone records of various H-P
board members were stolen earlier this year: by private
investigators who used the Internet and fake e-mail addresses to
jive AT&T into handing them over.
“These days, the practice is known as ‘pretexting’ – a nice,
sanitizing word that masks the demonic criminal scheming that’s
really behind it. Yet whatever word one uses to describe it, the
skullduggery still amounts to stealing. And with the war on
terror increasingly benumbing Americans to the relentless
erosion of their civil liberties, the organized theft of telephone
records has become one of the fastest growing and least
prosecuted crimes in cyberspace.”
–Bristol-Myers Squibb CEO Peter Dolan was forced to resign,
following a pitiful five-year reign that was capped off by the
incredibly mishandled attempt to settle a patent dispute
involving Bristol-Myers’ top drug, Plavix.
Now it’s assumed Bristol-Myers is on the block and the Star-
Ledger reported Schering-Plough is a potential acquirer.
–Apple Computer launched a number of new initiatives,
including a movie service involving 75 full-length Walt Disney
Co. films sold over its iTunes store. In conjunction with this,
Apple will sell a new device, iTV, that will display movies and
television shows over the Internet on television sets. And Apple
is expanding its iPod line.
Sales of iPod and iTunes song and video downloads accounted
for 45% of Apple’s $4.37 billion in revenue for the 2nd quarter,
and iTunes has 88% of the market for legal downloads in the
U.S.
Meanwhile, Microsoft launched its long-awaited competing
product, Zune, reception for which is unknowable at this time.
–With all the talk of the 9/11 anniversary, Wall Street’s disaster
planning was once again a topic of conversation and no doubt the
Street has taken a number of significant steps. For example, the
Bank of New York “has built two identical data centers, one 40
miles from its 1 Wall Street headquarters and (another) 750 miles
away.”
“Each is a replica, just waiting for the other to fail,” says Don
Monks, BoNY’s vice-chairman. [Financial Times]
–An economist in Madrid, Lorenzo Bernardo de Quiros, was
quoted in the Journal as saying “Spain is headed for a first-class
beating, and the only question now is when it will come.”
He’s talking about real estate, of course. Housing prices here
have more than doubled since 1997 and the sector has accounted
for 20% of the new jobs created in Spain since 1995.
But while renewed activity in real estate is confounding experts,
the fact is millions of homes sit empty, even as construction
picks up again.
Economist Quiros says “This uptick is sending exactly the wrong
signal to Spanish families. Instead of acting rationally and
preparing for a tougher climate ahead, they are still acting like
the party will never end – and that will make the ending all the
more painful.”
Spain has built more houses than France, Britain and Germany
combined for the past five years straight. I’ve noted before that
many Europeans have second homes here.
–American Express will allow some high-end clients to charge
down payments on condominiums. So buyers will be able to
earn reward points! I’m going to have to see if I qualify because
maybe I’ll buy a condo just to get an upgrade to my George
Foreman Grill.
–As much as I believe in the bursting of the real estate bubble,
the fact in the New York area is Wall Street bonuses are once
again going to be huge this year so you’d think some higher-end
homes may hold up better than most.
–Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is committed to
expanding exports of oil and gas to Asia over the next 10-15
years; from its current 3 percent to 30 percent. Of course this
raises further concerns in Europe, but, fear not, Putin said Russia
would continue to “behave in a responsible way.” Right.
–Hedge funds account for 45% of annual trading volume in
emerging market bonds and 47% of annual volume in distressed
debt. [Investment News] At some point this blows up.
–Merck suffered another setback with its anti-inflammatory drug
Vioxx, as the Journal of the American Medical Association
published a study that said the talked of heart and kidney dangers
from use of Vioxx can occur from the first day of usage, not just
after long-term use.
–Slumping Dell Computer delayed release of its fiscal 2nd
quarter financial report and suspended its share repurchase
program due to a federal accounting probe looking into results
since 2002.
–Mars candy company is expanding its line of “heart healthy”
snacks; new versions of CocoaVia that are rich in flavanols and
plant sterol additives designed to lower cholesterol and improve
blood flow. Here at StocksandNews we get our flavanols by
eating a chocolate-covered donut each morning, refrigerated first
for up to two hours, then consumed during the opening of the
“Today Show.”
[Doesn’t everyone do this?]
–McDonald’s reported its same store sales in Europe were way
up (though stagnant in the U.S.), and shares are now at a five-
year high. Well I’ve been admiring the commercials Mickey D’s
has been running for its new “snack wrap” and I had to try out
the product.
I give it an ‘A’. But only if they keep the price at $1.29. Two of
‘em does make for a good snack or light lunch. Throw in some
Breyers Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Ice Cream and you’re one
happy camper.
–Back in 2001 and in succeeding comments I labeled the
Segway an “idiotic” invention. Basically, I can now rest my case
as the manufacturer recalled every one of its dumb scooters
because of a glitch that could cause riders to fall off and kill
themselves. Actually, no deaths have been reported, just six
injuries, but the problem occurs when folks attempt to push the
scooter past its maximum speed. I guess they think they’re on
the Bonneville Salt Flats.
This isn’t the first time Dean Kamen’s invention has had a glitch,
by the way. I was writing of another three years ago.
My portfolio: I haven’t done anything recently. Just chilling
out; carbon fiber play in one hand, ‘puts’ on a mortgage
originator in the other, as well as assorted flotsam. My 80% cash
/ 20% equities recommendation doesn’t look as good these days,
but I’m shy of the S&P 500 by only a few points.
Foreign Affairs
Vatican: Pope Benedict XVI is a true scholar and he clearly
knew the implication of a passage he employed in a speech at a
German University this week. Questioning the concept of holy
war, he quoted Emperor Manual II of Byzantine, present-day
Istanbul, where the Orthodox Christian empire ruled in the 14th
century.
Muhammad had brought the world only “evil and inhuman”
things.
More specifically, Emperor Manual’s words were:
“Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new and there
you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command
to spread by the sword the faith he preached.”
Needless to say, Muslims were none too pleased and so the Holy
War has begun. [Half-kidding.] I’ll have more on this next time.
Ralph Peters / New York Post, in a related vein.
“Islamist terror is a deadly threat we have barely begun to
address. Yet religion-fueled fanaticism in the Middle East
shouldn’t surprise us: The tradition pre-dates the Prophet’s birth
by thousands of years.
“Terrorists just have better tools these days.
“What should amaze us isn’t the terrorists’ strength, which has
limits, but the comprehensive failure of Middle Eastern
civilization. Given all the wealth that’s poured into the region,
its vast human resources and all of its opportunities for change,
the mess the Middle East has made of itself is stunning.
“Beyond Israel, the region hasn’t produced a single first-rate
government, army, economy, university or industry. It hasn’t
even produced convincing second-raters.
“Culturally, the region is utterly noncompetitive. Societies
stagnate as populations seethe. To the extent it exists,
development benefits the wealthy and powerful. The common
people are either ignored or miserably oppressed – and not just
the women….
“Since the Renaissance, the West fixed its gaze on the future.
Islamic civilization sought to freeze time, to cling to a dream of a
lost paradise, part Islamic Baghdad, part Babylon.
“Shocked awake over the past few centuries, some Middle
Easterners realized they had to change. But they didn’t know
how. Modernization sputtered out. Pan-Arabism foundered on
greed and corruption.
“The shah tried to buy the ‘good parts’ of Western civilization,
but the pieces didn’t work on their own. Next, Iran tried
theocracy – government by bigots. Didn’t work either.
“ ‘Oil-rich’ Saudi Arabia has a per capita GDP half that of
Israel’s (whose sole resource is people). Dubai has shopping
malls – selling designer goods with Western labels.
“Today’s fanatics can hurt us, but can’t destroy us. Their fatal
ability is to drag their civilization down to an even lower level.
“The problem is that the Middle East hasn’t been able to escape
the Middle East.”
Pakistan: As alluded to above, President Musharraf cut a deal
with tribal leaders in North Waziristan, whereby he’ll withdraw
the Pakistani Army from the area in return for promises by the
militants they won’t try to kill him.
The Washington Post editorialized.
“Why would Mr. Musharraf strike this deal? The simple answer
is that his army was defeated in its attempt to eliminate the al-
Qaeda sanctuary by force; since launching the campaign in 2003,
it had suffered more than 500 killed. Mr. Musharraf, who tried
to dress up his maneuver by visiting Afghanistan the next day,
said he was worried about a full-scale uprising in the area.
Though he didn’t say so, the general is surely hoping that the
truce will add to his personal security…
“The cost of his decision will be borne by American and NATO
troops in Afghanistan, whose commanders already say that the
ability of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters to retreat to Pakistan
greatly complicates the challenge of defeating their escalating
attacks. So why did Vice President Cheney call Mr. Musharraf
‘a great ally’ just days after his separate peace? Administration
officials seem more willing to forgive their autocratic friend than
they are domestic critics of the war on terrorism.”
South Korea: President Roh Moo Hyun was in Washington for
talks with President Bush and the two leaders vowed to restart
the stalled six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons
program. But on other issues Bush and Roh (pronounced ‘Noh’)
were themselves stalemated.
It boils down to the fact the U.S. wants to maintain a hard line
with Pyongyang while Roh is following in the footsteps of
previous South Korean leaders who desire to pursue a “sunshine”
policy with Kim Jong Il.
Mary Kissel / Editor, Wall Street Journal
“Could Seoul and Washington be sliding toward an ‘amicable
divorce,’ as some Korea-watchers are terming it? Under this
view, this week’s White House summit…is marriage counseling.
Expectations are low, as prickly agenda items are plentiful: the
timing of the transfer of wartime Korean troop control to Seoul
(an idea that the Pentagon has almost gleefully embraced);
increasingly frayed Seoul-Tokyo relations; shaky negotiations
for a South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement; and Mr. Roh’s re-
establishment of emergency foot aid, along with verbal niceties
for Kim Jong Il….
“For more than half a century, Pax Americana has ruled on the
peninsula. But today, even South Korea’s opposition Grand
National Party, for all its hawkish rhetoric, doesn’t really
envision a military option for dealing with North Korea. It will
take more than a frosty summit…to stimulate some real fear
among the Korean people about who’s protecting their interests
and ensuring their security.”
Jin Ha Hwang, member of the opposition Grand National Party,
in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal
“First, the security situation on the Korean peninsula is more
fragile than ever. It was only March of this year when the
commanding general of the U.S. Forces Korea, Gen. Burwell B.
Bell, testified at the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that
‘North Korea poses a variety of threats to regional and global
stability.’
“Second, a transfer (of military authority) might encourage North
Korea to step up its rogue tactics. For the past half-century,
North Korean leaders have persistently called for the withdrawal
of American troops and dismantlement of the Combined Forces
Command. Pyongyang has also continuously insisted that it
would not discuss any military issues with a Seoul that does not
even have wartime control over its military. The North’s regime
would undoubtedly see the transfer as a victory, and use it to
strengthen their otherwise dissipating domestic legitimacy….
“Even as politics may have changed on the Korean peninsula, the
security situation, in terms of the need for deterrence, has not
changed one bit. North Korea’s asymmetric threats still pose a
grave danger to South Korea’s security, as well as to countless
U.S. economic and political interests. What about the possibility
of a major crisis like the North’s sudden collapse? Now is the
time to keep the alliance intact and strengthen its combined
defense capabilities.”
The problem is a majority of young people in South Korea
obviously have zero memories of the Korean War and as I told
you when I was there in the spring, they are hopelessly naïve.
On the other hand, the North is incapable of invading the South,
by my reading of the situation. It comes down to whether or not
Kim Jong Il wants to commit suicide in launching a missile and
artillery barrage on Seoul…or missiles on Tokyo. It’s also about
the men behind Kim. Who are they?
That said, the U.S. should turn over control to Seoul and
withdraw its forces. We’ll still have more than ample firepower
in Japan and Guam to immediately counter any move by the
North. The deterrent thus remains in place.
China: Both the United States and the European Union
condemned China’s latest efforts to muzzle the distribution of
foreign news, saying it viewed the rules with “great concern.”
New regulations, as announced by Xinhua, China’s biggest news
agency, will require international services such as Reuters and
Dow Jones to censor information distributed inside the country.
And it bans agencies from selling directly to banks and other
financial service companies. China can now revoke the licenses
of any found distributing content that “harms China’s national
security or honor,” or “hurts ethnic feelings.”
Oh brother.
Editorial / The Wall Street Journal
“(Why) muscle in now? Perhaps Beijing’s political elite feel
threatened. Freedom of information is unsettling to any
authoritarian state. In recent years Beijing has alternatively
creaked open, then slammed shut, the television industry and
lifestyle magazines. In recent months, the Communist
government has also floated new rules restricting reporting of
natural disasters and riots; increased oversight of local television
broadcasters; convicted New York Times news assistant Zhao
Yan and Singapore’s Straits Times reporter Ching Cheong, and
so on….
“The reformers among Beijing’s elites need to explain to their
colleagues that returning to old habits of censorship won’t
protect their future.”
And then you have the likes of Cisco, Oracle, EMC and
Motorola; all of whom have been supplying software to the
Chinese government that allows them to spy more effectively on
its citizenry.
As reported by Bruce Einhorn and Ben Elgin in Business Week:
“The scramble to sell technology to Chinese law enforcers
seems, for starters, to be at odds with the intent of an American
export law enacted after the massacre of hundreds of pro-
democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The
Tiananmen sanctions prohibited the export ‘of any crime control
or detection instruments or equipment’ to China.”
But today the Commerce Department has done little more than
block the sale of handcuffs, yet at the same time the State
Department estimates the Commies are holding at least 260,000
people in “reeducation” camps.
Just another example of how the U.S. government, be it the
administration of Bill Clinton or George W. Bush, is nothing
more than a bunch of hypocrites. It’s all about the money, of
course.
Taiwan: 200,000 protested over the corruption scandals
enveloping President Chen Shui-bian, urging him to resign, but
follow on protests were greatly diminished.
And on Wednesday, Chen said that after being rejected for UN
membership for 14 years in a row as the “Republic of China,” he
“will bow to the obvious and apply next time as ‘Taiwan.’”
Chen knows the application will be derailed by China.
Separately, China lodged a protest over a visit by members of
Israel’s Knesset to Taipei.
Russia: President Vladimir Putin told a group of journalists at
one of his private dinners that he was definitely stepping down in
2008. You won’t convince me of this until it actually happens.
And there was the tragic case of Russian Central Bank official
Andrei Kozlov, who was assassinated in Moscow.
Kozlov had been leading the charge to clean up Russia’s corrupt
banking system where money-laundering has been part of doing
business. He was his country’s chief financial reformer and was
known to close down two or three banks a week.
Some said this was a personal blow to Putin. I’m not so sure it’s
that easy. He’s sold out others before.
Syria: The government of Bashar Assad deserves some credit for
foiling a terror attack on the U.S. embassy in Damascus, but the
bigger picture is still troubling. How did the terrorists, armed
with grenades and machine guns, come as close as they did?
Mexico: After over two months of protests, Leftist Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador appears to be backing down from his
threat to create an alternative government after his call for a total
recount of the July presidential vote was denied by the Electoral
Court. Lopez Obrador now realizes many in his coalition, such
as those in the middle class, are abandoning his cause and instead
he is going to try to become the leader of a ‘shadow government’
where he could continue to criticize Felipe Calderon. Lopez
Obrador promised not to exploit Saturday’s Independence Day
parade as had once been feared.
Ukraine: New Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, as expected,
told NATO his nation was putting membership in the alliance on
hold, though Ukraine still wants to be part of the European
Union. Yanukovych added that the NATO issue would have to
be submitted to the people by referendum and as I’ve written
before, Ukraine is split 50-50 on this.
India: A proposed alliance between India, Brazil and South
Africa on exploring “peaceful uses of nuclear energy” may
actually convince the U.S. Congress to approve the nuclear deal
between Washington and New Delhi. The reason is Brazil and
South Africa are part of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers
Group, which regulates nuclear material. The organization has to
say yes for the U.S. to supply technology to India.
Canada: According to an Ipsos-Reid poll, 22 percent of
Canadians, and 26 percent of young people, believe the
attacks on the United States on 9/11 had nothing to do with
Osama bin Laden and were actually a plot by influential
Americans as part of a wider plan to profit from the aftermath.
Yikes.
[Separately, at least the attack on Dawson College in Montreal
wasn’t terror-related….just another deranged wacko. Kudos to
the Montreal police for handling an awful situation as well as
they did.]
Nigeria: This is too funny. From BBC News:
“A number of Nigerian politicians have been conned out of
thousands of dollars by people selling papers purporting to
certify them as ‘corruption-free.’
“The scam follows a warning by Nigeria’s anti-graft agency that
anyone guilty of corruption would be banned from contesting
next year’s elections.
“Conmen have been impersonating agency officials, donning
dark suits to look the part.”
Yup, what goes around comes around.
Random Musings
–I watched virtually all of ABC’s “The Path to 9/11” and
thought it was terrific. I also got a kick out of criticism from the
left since anyone who’s read a good newspaper the last ten years
knows that former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and
former National Security Advisor Sandy Berger were weak in
confronting Osama bin Laden. You’d also have to have been
living on Mars not to know President Bill Clinton was distracted,
to say the least.
There is no doubt in my mind that Republicans benefited from
this docudrama and I don’t want to hear my right-wing friends
complain about ABC’s perceived bias in its general news
coverage; at least not until the mid-term elections are over.
–At the same time, far too much is being made of President
Bush’s bounce in the polls. In the latest Wall Street Journal /
NBC News survey, the president’s overall approval rating rose
from 38 percent in June to 42 percent today. Talk to me when it
gets above 45.
No doubt, though, he has benefited from the focus on 9/11 and a
flurry of speeches on the war on terror, but after all this only 38
percent approve of his handling of Iraq, compared to 35 percent
in July.
Additionally, when asked who should control Congress, the
Democrats still have a 48-39 advantage.
–And when it comes to military tribunals for terror suspects and
their treatment, I trust Republican Senators John McCain,
Lindsey Graham and John Warner to know what’s best for our
country as opposed to the White House.
On Thursday, the above three were joined by Republican Sen.
Susan Collins in rejecting the president’s proposal to keep
defendants from seeing classified evidence against them.
In a letter to Sen. McCain, Colin Powell wrote “The world is
beginning to doubt the moral basis of our fight against
terrorism.”
And according to the Financial Times, “McCain told aides he
was willing to risk the presidency (over this issue), because of
possible loss of support from Republican lawmakers and voters.”
McCain, along with Graham and Warner (all of whom served in
the military), is adamant Bush’s proposal would redefine U.S.
obligations under the Geneva Conventions. Both Powell and
McCain agree it would “put our own troops at risk.”
[I found President Bush’s incoherent response to a reporter’s
question on Powell’s statement, at Friday’s press conference, to
be deplorable.]
Editorial in the Washington Post:
“There’s no question that the United States is facing a dangerous
foe that uses the foulest of methods. But a wide array of generals
and others who should know argue that it is neither prudent nor
useful for the United States to compromise its own values in
response. ‘I continue to read and hear that we are facing a
‘different enemy’ in the war on terror,’ retired Gen. John W.
Vessey Jr., a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote
in a letter to Sen. John McCain this week. ‘No matter how true
that may be, inhumanity and cruelty are not new to warfare nor
to enemies we have faced in the past….Through those years, we
held to our own values. We should continue to do so.’”
–I’ve been writing the past few weeks about the potential for
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to launch a third-
party bid for president in 2008. This week pollster Frank Luntz
released the results of a nationwide survey of registered voters
and found 61 percent might take a shot on him when shown a
brief bio of the mayor.
Additionally, when you tossed Bloomberg in a hypothetical race
you had these results.
Rudy Giuliani 39 percent, Hillary Clinton 35 percent, Bloomberg
17 percent
John McCain 37 percent, Clinton 32 percent and Bloomberg 21
percent.
And as Luntz points out this is before Bloomberg spent a dollar
of his fortune.
“When almost half of Americans say they’re ‘mad as hell’ at
politics and politicians, you have the makings of an electoral
groundswell.
“When 81 percent of Americans say they’d be willing to
consider voting for an independent candidate for president, you
have the makings of a political revolution….
“A credible presidential independent will be someone who is not
tied to the Washington political establishment but can point to a
record of results.
“He (or she) will say ‘no’ to the lobbyists and special interests
but still have the financial means to run a serious national
campaign. Such a candidate will attract considerable attention –
and perhaps some serious votes.
“There’s only one person in America who fits the bill: New York
City Mayor Mike Bloomberg.”
Remember, back in 1992, Ross Perot hit 40 percent at one point,
before finishing with 19 percent, and these are certainly more
tumultuous times than back then.
For his part, Bloomberg continues to deny he’s entertaining any
such thoughts, while I like the conclusion of an editorial in
Friday’s New York Post.
“We’re not endorsing anyone for president yet; it’s way too early
for that.
“But Mayor Mike’s puckishly iconoclastic approach to politics
would lend substantial clarity to the process.
“Plus it would be terrific fun. Run, Mike, run!”
–One of the true dirtballs in Washington, Congressman Bob Ney
(R-Oh.) has agreed to plead guilty for his role in the Jack
Abramoff scandal. But he’s also supposedly entered an in-
patient rehab center for treatment of alcoholism. Ye olde booze
excuse. No word on whether his family wants him around when
he gets out of prison.
–Right-wingers such as Bill O’Reilly love to blast the likes of
left-leaning Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
But any rational observer of these organizations knows they can
be even-handed and such was the case this week when Amnesty
International lambasted Hizbullah for its rocket attacks on
civilians in Israel.
“Hizbullah’s attacks…amounted to deliberate attacks on civilians
and civilian objects, as well as indiscriminate attacks, both war
crimes under international law.”
Amnesty called for a “comprehensive, independent and impartial
inquiry” by the UN into the violations and to ensure there was
“full reparation” to victims.
–According to a study by Harvard’s Christopher Murray, the
average life expectancy of Americans is 78. But Asian-
Americans have an average life expectancy of 85, while Native
Americans in South Dakota live to just 58 on average. Having
driven through the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation (S.D.), I can
certainly understand this last fact.
In terms of the states, Hawaii has the highest life expectancy at
80.0, with Minnesota second at 78.8. The District of Columbia
brings up the rear, in more ways than one, at 72.0, with
Mississippi 50th at 73.6. It all ends up being about exercise, diet
and smoking…not necessarily healthcare. Also it helps if we
don’t run around shooting each other.
–Another study is out on the benefits of drinking green tea.
“Compared with participants who consumed less than one cup of
green tea a day, those who consumed five or more cups had a 26
percent lower risk of fatal heart disease.” [The Times of
London]
–A few weeks ago Dr. Bortrum warned me about eating pre-
packaged lettuce and spinach and lo and behold, the good doctor
was right. I’ve learned my lesson. If I buy this stuff in the
future, I’ll put it in the washer first.
–It’s official. The U.S. had its hottest summer since 1936,
June 1 to August 31 as defined by the National Climatic Data
Center. And now El Nino threatens to keep temperatures warm
this winter. Great!
But more importantly, NASA’s top scientists are warning of the
feared “tipping point” as new satellite photos reveal an area of
sea ice “the size of Texas” has been lost from the Arctic in just
one year.
From the Financial Times:
“Sea ice – because it is bright white – reflects back much of the
sun’s rays, in effect cooling the planet, (as Al Gore’s film
explains). But melting ice leaves more of the darker sea
exposed, which then absorbs more heat, which causes more ice
to melt, thus exposing more sea – a spiral of warming that
quickly takes on a momentum of its own.”
The latest NASA data confirm this feedback loop.
“We could reach the tipping point within 15 to 20 years from
now, which would give us just 10 years in which to determine
the destiny of our planet,” according to Peter Smith, a British
climatologist. Jay Gulledge, senior research fellow at the Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, adds climatologists “have
(been) dramatically under-estimating how responsive the climate
is to warming.”
–The Journal had an editorial that noted between 1998 and the
end of 2001, there were 2,991 fatalities from terrorism in North
America, almost all of them on 9/11. Since then, there have been
only three.
I thought of this figure when watching the local NBC News
affiliate’s series on hospital infections. Incredibly, it is the
fourth-leading cause of death in this country…some 100,000
victims a year.
–In what seems like a great move, Harvard University is
eliminating its early-admissions program because it says
disadvantaged students are behind the eight ball compared to
Richie Richs who attend well-funded high schools or can afford
private admissions counselors.
Harvard’s interim president, Derek Bok, added “The college
admissions process has become too pressured, too complex, and
too vulnerable to public cynicism. We hope that doing away
with early admission will improve the process and make it
simpler and fairer.”
But in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Arthur Brooks, a
professor at Syracuse University, writes:
“To get rid of the program for the reasons typically given by
critics – suboptimal personal behaviors [Ed. goofing off in the
spring] and imperfect information about the program – seeks to
correct private problems by eliminating consumer choices. This
is silly. We don’t ban items because people don’t know about
them, nor do we put an end to most goods and services (even
truly dangerous ones like guns and booze) simply because some
people might fail to use them in beneficial ways.”
I”m so confused.
–Now here’s something important….from the Associated Press.
“An Orlando man smuggled 872 illegal immigrants into the
United States during the past 10 years by using false documents
that said the immigrants were circus workers, authorities said.”
You know, looking back at “The Ed Sullivan Show,” all those
tumblers and jugglers were probably illegals, too, booked by Ed
himself. You don’t think they actually made a buck doing that
stuff in their homeland, do you? And Ed wasn’t a nice guy. He
probably kept them all in cages, and then with two minutes left in
the show held a lottery to see who got released on stage. No
wonder the acts were so frantic.
–The New York Daily News had a story on former New Jersey
Governor Jim McGreevey’s taped segment on “Oprah” as he
begins to promote his book, “The Confession.”
“Oprah’s audience was unimpressed….
“If the reaction of her fans who watched the taping are any
indication, McGreevey’s musings – for which he reportedly got a
$500,000 advance – could be a tough sell.”
Good. I’m just sorry some publisher was foolish enough to give
this corrupt, despicable jerk living expenses for a few years.
By the way, New Jersey’s top prosecutor, Chris Christie, is now
97-0 in corruption cases involving our esteemed politicians.
–Note to my Martian readers (admittedly it’s tough tracking
them). One of our astronauts lost a bolt while making a repair on
the International Space Station and it’s hurtling around at 15,000
mph, which could cause a mess if it strikes your craft.
–A white buffalo was born on a farm in Wisconsin, the third
such animal in recent history at the same place. According to
Floyd “Looks for Buffalo” Hand, a medicine man with the
Oglala Sioux in Pine Ridge, S.D., it’s no surprise this particular
farm has had such good success. Fate, he says, brings more
visitors to a focal point.
Indians believe the white buffalo will reunite all the races of man
and restore balance to the world. There was a time, you’ll recall,
when Coca-Cola was supposed to do that.
The last white buffalo was born on the Wisconsin farm back in
1996, though it only lived three days. However, this was long
enough to establish parity in the NFL, thereby once again
proving its powers.
–And this depressing story with a somewhat happy ending.
50 orangutans have been rescued from a Thai amusement park,
where they had been forced to stage mock “kick-boxing” bouts.
They are being returned to Indonesia, from where they had been
originally smuggled out to work at Safari World in Bangkok.
Just another example of how sick and overrated humans are.
–I’m off on a little trip the next few weeks…Prague, Sofia, and
Bucharest. I hope to have an exclusive sit down with Count
Dracula in Transylvania.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $583
Oil, $63.33
Returns for the week 9/11-9/15
Dow Jones +1.5% [11560]
S&P 500 +1.6% [1319]
S&P MidCap +1.7%
Russell 2000 +2.9%
Nasdaq +3.2% [2235]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-9/15/06
Dow Jones +7.9%
S&P 500 +5.7%
S&P MidCap +1.8%
Russell 2000 +8.3%
Nasdaq +1.4%
Bulls 45.8
Bears 35.4 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Next time from Bulgaria…computer willing.
Brian Trumbore
