[Posted 4:00 AM ET…Bucharest, Romania]
The EU’s New Additions
So why have I spent the last ten days in Bulgaria and Romania?
Beats the heck out of me, now that I’m here. Of course in all
honesty I came here to learn a few things, and that I have.
Like just what is the European Union thinking in admitting these
two into the EU, as they did on Tuesday, effective Jan. 2007?
Granted, the EU placed strong conditions on Bulgaria and
Romania, particularly in terms of cleaning up corruption (fat
chance of that!), organized crime (ditto!) and instituting proper
procedures for the allocation of farm aid (good luck). Bulgaria
as well must improve its air safety standards, which I didn’t learn
until I exited the country. But the move makes little sense to me.
To generalize very broadly, the European Union was established
to create a common market making it easier to transact
commerce across borders. The first members – Belgium, France,
Germany, Italy, Luxemburg, and the Netherlands – were chosen
in 1952 and with the addition of Bulgaria and Romania the club
now numbers 27. As the EU has expanded, some poorer
members, such as Ireland (admitted in 1973), were granted
substantial subsidies by the other countries in the thought that it
would only lead to the further success of the others. The better
the poorer members performed, the better for all.
For decades, critics of the EU said it was too altruistic, let alone
bureaucratic, and that in other areas such as foreign policy there
was no way in a place such as Europe you could have a one size
fits all agenda, and, alas, many of its inhabitants still hate each
other.
And now the more established EU nations are scared of a huge
influx of immigrants from the likes of Bulgaria and Romania,
and so many who once had an open door policy, such as Britain,
Ireland and Sweden, are adopting far more stringent measures to
keep the new club members out.
One of the consistent themes I heard while in Bulgaria and
Romania was that while a lot of the citizens aren’t as fired up as
they once were about joining the EU and being told how to
conduct their own business, the biggest advantage is the freedom
to travel anywhere in the union without obtaining a visa. And
that is a huge plus. It makes it easier for citizens of B&R to get
into, say, Britain, and then seek work at far higher wages than
they are being paid back home, for instance.
But I said the EU is nuts because in so many ways Bulgaria and
Romania are very backward. For starters they are easily the two
poorest members, with both having a GDP per capita about 31
percent of the EU average.
In their defense, though, officials at both say, hey, our economies
are growing at a consistent 5 to 6 percent pace; far better than the
bulk of you.
Critics these days, however, are countering, well look at the
problems 2004 members Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are
having (and to a lesser extent Czech Republic). The politics of
these nations are increasingly fragile, to say the least.
And the debate goes back and forth. One thing I found
interesting in both B&R is that the locals stressed the EU wants
them for its “pure food.” The vegetables do taste fresh, I must
say. And I got a kick out of being told on more than one
occasion that my soup “has no additives!”
On the other hand, Bulgaria and Romania are still havens for
organized crime with massive levels of corruption, though I was
told that the new center in the region for mob activity, including
of the Russian variety, is Prague, which was a bit surprising to
me.
But you know what I found startling in both countries? The
locals admitting they had no national pride, which is largely a
result of the same Mob-inspired crime and corruption, when you
think about it; though Russia has both in spades and yet its
citizens remain proud of their heritage, as messed up as some of
us outsiders see it.
I’ll give you a great example, which readers of my “Bar Chat”
column have a little more background on.
On Wednesday I hired out a driver in Bucharest to take me into
Transylvania. What a day. Parts of it I was scared to death by
Gabriel’s driving. [Transylvania itself was both beautiful and
fascinating.]
So Gabriel and I get back to Bucharest, ten long hours later, and I
had had it with his lawless driving. We were up on the trolley
tracks (which are separated from the main roads some), totally
illegal, and scattering unsuspecting people about.
I yelled at him, he shot back, and then we got into this heated
discussion about his country and politics in general. It
essentially went like this.
“You can’t do that, Gabriel, it’s against the law!”
“What laws? We have no laws. Who are the laws for? The
government? The people? In Romania it’s each man out for
himself. If I wait in traffic, in a neat line with the others, what
does that prove?”
“But someone has to follow the laws or society breaks down!”
“Our society is already broken. Unless you are at the top of
government, with all your privileges and kickbacks, you don’t
stand a chance. I work all day to put bread on the table for
my wife and daughter and yet I don’t ever get any higher in life.”
It turned out to be a heart-wrenching discussion as we went on
and on like this for a good fifteen minutes. It was also
fascinating his perception of America.
“Here in Romania, if we see someone in the subway who is
disabled and is having trouble getting around, no one offers to
help. It’s every man for himself. But in America you have, what
do you call it, 9-1-1. You help each other.”
He was giving us more credit than we deserve sometimes, by my
own observations, but we are certainly far more generous and
compassionate than every other nation on earth, by the statistics.
And so while his 911 analogy was slightly off, it does open your
eyes.
My driver in Bulgaria, Tony (the fellow I hooked up with after
posting last week’s column), had somewhat similar comments,
especially on the issue of lack of pride and identity. Tony was a
great kid, in his 20s and clearly highly ambitious. He wasn’t
going to be left behind if he could help it.
“People who work hard are to be celebrated,” he told me. I mean
he grows and sells carrots, is a chef, and is buying property (and
doing very well by everything I heard in Sofia…a booming
market). And on the side he picks up lucrative driving jobs, like
in my case.
But boy, you’ll find this part enlightening.
As Tony and I were driving through Bulgaria’s Rila Mountains
on the way to the Rila Monastery, the reception on the radio kept
fading in and out as we picked up one channel and lost another.
At one point Tony said, “That’s Iraq.” “The station’s from
Iraq?” “Yes, Iraq.” He then listened a while and told me the
commentator was talking about how the level of U.S. casualties
there had now exceeded 9/11. Since I had just seen this story I
knew he wasn’t kidding me as to where the station was
originating from.
Then, without any prodding on my part, Tony, bright as anyone I
met in his country, said “George Bush crashed those planes.”
“Huh?”
“Your president, George Bush, crashed the planes as part of a
plot.”
I just said I was amazed how many believed that and changed the
topic. Maybe I should have engaged him, like I did with Gabriel,
but our trip was just starting that day. Next week I am, however,
going to try and express my thoughts on just why it is so many
around the world despise President Bush.
For now, as I wrap up my thoughts on Bulgaria and Romania and
the European Union’s questionable move to elevate these two to
club status long before they are ready – what with the contract
killings still taking place in the former and the black market in
babies in the latter – which you’d think would dictate more of a
level of prudence on the part of the EU, I leave you with another
story that tells you something about the character of the people.
I was talking to Gabriel in Bucharest about my going to see the
monstrosity built by dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in the late
1980s, The Palace of the Peoples. Ceausescu, one of the evil
racists of his time who was eventually done in by a restive
Hungarian population which sparked a revolution, displaced
40,000 to build the world’s second largest office building next to
the Pentagon. It is an amazing sight to see up close, but an
incredible folly.
So I asked Gabriel what he thought of the place.
“What do you mean?”
“Well Ceausescu displaced tens of thousands and built this
colossus at a time when you all were starving, from what I’ve
read.”
“Oh, it wasn’t that bad. And he brought in a lot of workers from
outside and they were given a housing block.”
Wonderful. Looks like there’s still no shortage of things to learn
in this amazing world of ours.
—
Iraq: The New York Times’ David Brooks, in citing a World
Values Survey, wrote “Iraq is the most xenophobic, sexist and
reactionary society on earth.” Sadly, he’s got it right.
And in a poll conducted by the University of Maryland, 60
percent of Iraqis approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces, though at
least 57 percent disapprove of Iranian President Ahmadinejad,
which is slightly encouraging.
On the unbelievably bad reconstruction effort, filled with graft
and corruption to the tune of $billions, the Washington Post
reported that a $75 million model police academy is already in
shambles. Floors buckling, walls falling apart…it’s brand new!
It’s so bad urine is seeping through the floors from the
bathrooms.
But in a piece of good potential news, Kurdish rebel leader
Ocalan, who is in a Turkish prison, told his followers to seek
peace with Turkey. It’s unknown by yours truly how much
Ocalan is still respected and listened to, and I see that a gas
pipeline between Iran and Turkey was just blown up, supposedly
by Kurds.
Iran: Yup, Iran is still “stalling,” to use President Bush’s term.
Of course none of you should be in the least bit surprised, seeing
as I told you of Iran’s four-corners offense long ago. And now
it’s officially been a month since Iran was told by the UN to
cease with its uranium enrichment program.
In a poll conducted by the BBC and Globescan, 21 percent of
Americans are for striking Iran if it continues to defy the UN,
while only 8 percent of Brits feel that way, 6 percent of French,
and 4 percent of Germans. Forget the raw numbers, it’s the
ratios that are telling, though also not in the least bit surprising.
Israel / Lebanon: Speaking of things you already know about, I
had to laugh when I saw some articles this week talk about
Shebaa Farms now being a key to any permanent peace
agreement between Israel and Lebanon. I told you long before
the war started it was critical to resolve this, and a missed
opportunity on the part of the Bush administration to call
Hizbullah’s bluff; Shebaa Farms being Hizullah’s raison d’etre
for their “armed resistance” against Israel. But the White
House’s incredibly unimaginative and inept foreign policy
resulted in yet another disaster.
I also seem to be the only one who is incredulous that President
Bush has the temerity to stand in front of us and say with a
straight face “We believe strongly in the concept of a Democratic
Lebanon,” having failed to lift a finger in supporting the
fledgling government when it needed help most.
Bush has sent a high-level delegation to Beirut that includes
Intel’s Craig Barrett and Cisco’s John Chambers and I do at least
like what Barrett said; it’s a time for “concrete actions, not empty
promises,” which is all Lebanon received from the United States
in the days and months following the assassination of Rafik
Hariri.
Total losses, by the way, in Lebanon are now expected to hit $10
billion, when you add in the loss of tourism dollars and exports.
And when it comes to South Lebanon, three people a day are
being killed and wounded by unexploded bomblets from the
cluster-bombs Israel dropped in the area. Incredibly, according
to the Washington Post, there are some one million that are
unexploded…Israel having dropped 90 percent of them in the
last 72 hours of the conflict. Of course this severely impacts the
efforts of any attempting to farm the area for their livelihood.
Yet, incredibly, there will be those, looking at the broader
picture, who still don’t understand how Arab enmity in the
region towards Israel exists as it does.
And this leads to feelings being expressed by relative moderates
such as Rami Khouri, who I’ve quoted frequently in the past.
Khouri is a professor at American University in Beirut and writes
for the Daily Star of Lebanon. I don’t agree with all of this, but
it’s representative of opinion on “the Arab street.”
“In the five years since 9/11, a most worrying and widespread
political trend in Western societies has been the broad
identification of Islam with terrorism. The translation of that
general perception into specific foreign policies by leading
Western powers has led to dangerous new confrontations in the
predominantly Islamic Arab-Asian region. It has driven military
interventions and ‘regime change’ policies spearheaded by the
United States, sometimes with Europeans and Israelis on board.
These tensions have also dovetailed with the persistent Arab-
Israeli conflict, aggravating the overall situation.
“In response, a new coalition of forces has emerged in the
Middle East, prompted by a growing collective will to defy and
sometimes militarily resist Western-Israeli policies. Such
resistance includes the use of force in Afghanistan, Iraq,
Palestine and Lebanon, and pushing back politically against
Western-Israeli hegemony. Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas,
Muslim Brotherhood groups and remnants of leftist and
nationalist movements have all found themselves motivated by
common fears of American-Israeli-driven policies.
“The recent fighting in Lebanon highlighted these new battle
lines, whose origins can be traced back in part to aggressive post-
9/11 American strategies to ‘drain the swamp’ in the Arab-
Islamic Middle East.
“The problem as seen by many in the Middle East is three-fold.
First, since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and the West in
general have seemed to need a new defining global paradigm to
regulate relations among states or groups of states. Many in the
West seem to have opted for a ‘clash of civilizations,’ quickly
reduced to a West-Islam face-off. Incompatibilities and threats,
rather than shared values and ethnic-religious legacies, quickly
defined the public discussion of Islam and the West in many
parts of Europe and North America….
“Second, the American and British governments misdiagnosed
and then overreacted to 9/11 and other terror attacks, in London
and Madrid particularly. They opted for an aggressive military
and diplomatic strategy that seeks to defeat terror groups, but
also to change regimes and modify government systems, along
with some basic social values, in Arab-Asian societies. The
West is no longer just suggesting gradual policy reforms to Arab-
Asian countries – It is sending in the U.S. Marines to do the job
by force, often dictating the values and systems the target
countries should adopt.
“Third, George W. Bush and Tony Blair in particular have
incessantly spoken of their fear that radical Islamic values and
the acts of terror groups threaten the Western way of life, and
must be beaten with a robust display of Western power and
determination waged in a great civilizational ‘battle for hearts
and minds.’ The most recent catchall phrase to describe the bad
guys in the Middle East-Asian region is ‘Islamo-fascists’ – a
stunningly simplistic convergence of a noble ancient religion
from the Middle East with an evil modern political ideology that
was born in Europe. When two leading figures like Bush and
Blair repeatedly speak of Islamic values, radical terror groups
and ideologues and threats to Western lifestyles as one seamless
set of ideas, the damage over years is devastating….
“The confrontational cycle since 9/11 between many in the West
and the Middle East has been fueled by specific policies and
incidents that can be widely interpreted as reflecting a new form
of political racism in the West against Arabs and Muslims. The
main charge is that the American-led West applies a double
standard when it comes to Arab-Islamic countries or groups.
Four particular recent issues reflect this feeling: the Danish
cartoons controversy last winter; reactions to Iran’s nuclear
technology development; the response to Hamas’ victory in the
Palestinian elections; and the relaxed Anglo-American attitude
for calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hizbullah war, after
initially giving Israel weeks to pursue its widespread devastation
throughout Lebanon.
“Each of these issues reflects distinct dynamics and concerns.
But in the eyes of much of the Arab-Islamic world they also
share a common thread: They manifest in practical policy terms a
prevalent Western sense that the rights of Arabs and Muslims are
broadly contingent on their first unconditionally accepting
American-Israeli demands.”
Again, the above is a mainstream opinion in the Arab world. We
need “historic” leaders to bridge this growing gap between us
before it’s too late.
Afghanistan / Pakistan: I give President Bush credit for
attempting to bring these two together, but at the same time one
can’t help but witness the hypocrisy in some of it. And while his
book may sell (I’ll probably buy it), President Pervez Musharraf
did not otherwise have a good week. It is obvious the tribal
agreement he reached in Waziristan has only led to a stronger
Taliban, now shielded in the region, while a leak from British
intelligence suggested that Musharraf’s ISI (their CIA) needs to
be disbanded because of its support for al Qaeda. Of course
everyone has known there are elements in the ISI who have had
something to do with the attempts on Musharraf’s life, but the
timing of the report, as Musharraf was heading to Britain,
couldn’t have been worse.
President Karzai of Afghanistan isn’t without blame, either, for
his nation’s many problems, but he is doing just about all he can
given his still pitiful resources. He hasn’t been dealt a great hand
to begin with and without a strong ongoing commitment from
NATO and the U.S. on the security side, it’s going to be virtually
impossible to improve on it.
[On a related topic, U.S. forces will now be under NATO
command in Afghanistan.]
Wall Street
Each week, this paragraph or two is the last I plug in after
waiting to see how the market closes and gathering some final
statistics. Well, suddenly I have Internet connection issues so I
need to make this mercifully brief.
The pattern continues…one week up, one week down…but the
up ones are strong, while losses to the downside have been
minimal.
And so this time the Dow Jones, starting the week at 11508,
rocketed to a new all-time high of 11741, besting the Jan. 14,
2000, mark of 11722. Only one problem. The 11722 figure still
stands because the Dow failed to ‘close’ above it any single day
this week, finishing Friday at 11679, basically on concerns the
Federal Reserve may not be easing interest rates anytime soon
after all.
Earlier in the week we had mixed news on the housing market,
with existing home sales down for the month of August, but new
home sales up. Few really believed the latter number and, more
importantly, the median price on both existing and new homes is
actually down, 1.3 to 1.7 percent, from year ago levels. So this
being new for most homeowners, we’ll see how it begins to
weigh on psychology and consumer spending.
The latest data on personal consumption, incidentally, was up
just a mere 0.1 percent, while personal income rose 0.3 percent.
But two leading measures of consumer confidence rose, thanks
to falling gasoline prices; certainly not an unexpected
development.
Lastly, as the final revision for 2nd quarter GDP came in, 2.6
percent and less than expected (it was 5.6 percent in the 1st
quarter), White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman
Edward Lazear told the Senate Budget Committee that the
“housing slowdown will be a significant drag on third quarter
growth.”
Street Bytes
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.01% 2-yr. 4.68% 10-yr. 4.63% 30-yr. 4.76%
The bond rally petered out on the above noted concerns the
Federal Reserve may not be easing anytime soon, following
rather hawkish comments from Fed Gov. Poole.
–Crude oil rose to $62.91, despite continuing builds in
inventories, on word OPEC may begin reining in production.
Friday it announced Venezuela and Nigeria would voluntarily
cut back some…but only 170,000 barrels, combined. Natural
gas, meanwhile, staged a big rally after bottoming around the
$4.40 level, closing the week at $5.62.
–Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson appears to have convinced
the Chinese government to continue to let its currency appreciate
further, which helped block protectionist measures by senators
Lindsey Graham and Charles Schumer.
–General Motors is balking big time at an alliance with Renault
and Nissan, with the latter two seeking a 20 percent stake
without paying a premium, at last report. But it’s investor Kirk
Kerkorian who is pushing GM into some kind of arrangement in
threatening to raise his already considerable 9.9% stake.
–In a totally absurd ruling, a federal judge has granted class-
action status to tens of millions of smokers of “light cigarettes.”
–JP Morgan Chase is now #2 behind Goldman Sachs on the list
of largest hedge fund managers, which might be a slight surprise
to some. But $12 billion of its $28 billion in hedge fund assets
was recently acquired. JPM has 38 in-house funds.
–I haven’t seen an Amaranth update in a few days, so I’m
assuming there still hasn’t been a conference call where investors
could ask chief Nick Maounis just how it was Amaranth was able
to lose $6 billion of $9.5 billion in assets in the blink of an eye.
Maounis instead has only offered this statement:
“Sometimes even the highly impossible happens and that’s what
happened in September.”
Pitiful. Amaranth is being served with all manner of suits
alleging it misrepresented its risk management policies, though I
think by now we can leave out the word “alleged.”
[Update to last week’s comment. Josh P. informed me San
Diego’s pension fund exposure to Amaranth was $175 million,
not $125 million as originally reported, but the actual loss may
be closer to $90 million. I think I left the impression last time
the ‘loss’ was $125 million. And I did just see Amaranth
announce it is suspending redemption requests as it looks to
liquidate the entire portfolio. The loss would now appear to be
greater than $6 billion.]
–Health-care premiums of employers and workers are climbing
double the rate of wages and inflation in 2005, up 7.7 percent.
But the pace had been as high as 14 percent as recently as 2003.
Just as importantly, these days only 60 percent of smaller
companies now provide some sort of health benefit, down from
68 percent a few years back.
–Former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow was sentenced to six years,
without parole. Fastow could have received ten, but he’s been
cooperating with federal authorities; specifically as it pertains to
some of the ongoing class-action suits.
Fastow is pointing out to plaintiffs where key documents may
exist that help in their cases against the likes of Barclays, Royal
Bank of Scotland, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse, all of whom
opted out of the initial multi-$billion settlement in claiming
innocence in the whole Enron fiasco. Earlier, a judge absolved
Barclays of any guilt, but if Fastow produces the goods, the case
will likely be resurrected.
–Ken P. observed that it probably wasn’t a good thing for
WorldCom’s Bernard Ebbers to show up at federal prison in a
Mercedes the day he began serving his 25-year sentence.
Undoubtedly, the inmates took note.
–Kobi Alexander, former CEO of Comverse Technologies and
fugitive from justice as a result of charges he manipulated his
company’s stock options, was seized in Namibia. Namibia?!
Geezuz, I realize he probably thought no one would find him
there, but what fun would that place be? And so we nominate
Kobi Alexander for “Corporate Idiot/Dirtball of the Year,” the
first so chosen in both categories. Kobi, you’ll receive your
hardware at year end. Enjoy.
–Ken S. reminded me that despite all the publicity on Hugo
Chavez and Venezuela’s ownership of Citgo, it behooved me to
mention it once in a while. Yes, I’ve been remiss in not doing
so. And then two days after receiving this note from him, 7-
Eleven announced it was dropping Citgo from 2,100 locations,
though the company said it had nothing to do with denying
Chavez more revenue, but rather Citgo’s contract with 7-Eleven
was expiring. Well we know where the truth lies on this one,
don’t we?
–Nice move by the Mexican government to allow executives at
TV Azteca to sponsor a raid on NBC-owned rival Telemundo.
Moves like this are why some of us have such a low opinion of
this country.
–With the carnage in the auto sector and a slowing housing
market (and thus a slowdown in purchases of appliances), many
are talking about a glut in steel. Finally, falling prices.
–One company I like to see do well is McDonald’s, especially
after some of the problems they had years ago. They’ve simply
executed and haven’t been afraid to change strategy and
experiment. In fact, President Bush could learn a thing or two
from them. This week McDonald’s announced it was hiking its
dividend to $1 from $0.67.
–India recorded growth of 8.9 percent for the quarter.
–My friend Jimbo is an avid L.L. Bean shopper, as am I from
time to time, and he’s noted the shopping experience is so
enjoyable, both in terms of price and service, that he’s thinking
of waiting on the curb for the package to arrive.
–I see where Yahoo! is closing its offices the last week of the
year to save on lighting and heating. The company is also
mandating that employees use vacation time if they want to be
paid for the forced time off. Here at StocksandNews, we grant
employees only Christmas Day…and they better be in all the
earlier on the 26th.
Foreign Affairs
The Vatican: Pope Benedict XVI met with some Muslim leaders
and most of the press accounts I read I believe got it all wrong.
They talked of his willingness to apologize for perhaps being a
bit insensitive and not wanting to humiliate the Islamic faith, but
at the same time the bigger story was the Pope’s refusal to back
down in stressing his opposition to religious intolerance, and he
specifically decried discrimination against Christians in Saudi
Arabia. Muslims are granted full rights in Christian countries
and Christians aren’t in many of theirs. That must change, yet
the Pope appears to be the only one with the guts, and authority,
to bring it up.
Japan: Shinzo Abe, 52, became the youngest prime minister post-
World War II and he immediately appointed a conservative
cabinet. Abe will set to formally revising the pacifist
constitution to allow for more offensive military capability, while
at the same time he is calling for a summit with China.
But China is saying ‘not so fast’ as both it and South Korea
continue to rail about visits to the Yasukuni war shrine. Abe
hasn’t disavowed going to the shrine himself. Thus far the
Japanese people are giving him a 71 percent approval rating.
China: Meanwhile, President Hu dismissed a leading political
rival, the party boss in Shanghai, over corruption charges. But
Hu was also sending a signal to the increasingly powerful
regional chiefs ahead of a Communist Party confab and next
year’s bigger congress.
Russia / Georgia: Major spat here as Georgia has accused five
Russians of spying, with Georgian police surrounding a Russian
base there that is said to be protecting the fifth. [The other four
were arrested.] Russia in turn has withdrawn some of its
officials, including its ambassador, and their families because of
“security concerns.” Georgian President Saakashvili termed this
reaction “hysteria” and then his government produced both audio
and video evidence of the coordinated Russian activities, as well
as evidence implicating one in a car bomb attack last year that
killed three. But Russia would never do such a thing, would it?
I mean they wouldn’t want to possibly foment revolution in the
breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
for the purpose of toppling the very pro-West government of
Saakashvili, would they?
South Korea: Seoul is bribing members of the UN Security
Council in its attempt to have foreign minister Ban Ki Moon
succeed Kofi Annan; this according to The Times (of London).
Hungary: Prime Minister Gyurcsany said he is committed to
reforms and will not step down despite the protests over the
audiotape revealing him to have lied about the state of the
nation’s economy prior to key April elections.
Poland: And a major corruption scandal here as yet another
politician has been caught on tape; this time a ruling party
member who tried to bribe another party’s politician.
Kazakhstan: I don’t know any details as I go to post but it’s
pretty funny that President Nazarbayev has been treated to a state
dinner, a rare occurrence for the Bush White House. While there
is no doubt Nazarbayev is actually among the more moderate
leaders in his region, and he is truly popular among his people,
he has ruled Kazakhstan with an iron fist. A democracy? I don’t
think so, which makes criticism of the administration’s kid glove
treatment of Nazarbayev totally legit. [In case you didn’t know,
Kazakhstan has a lot of oil.]
North Korea: The top commander for U.S. forces in the Pacific
said Pyongyang doesn’t have a legitimate long-range missile
capability, citing its test failures from last summer and eight
years earlier. That’s a big leap of faith, to me.
Indonesia: The death toll from bird flu hit 52. It’s still out there
and world health officials and governments can’t let down their
guard.
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Tony Blair made his last
appearance at a Labour Party Conference as its leader. Labour is
down to 31 percent in the polls, compared to 38 percent for the
Conservatives.
Switzerland: The conservative Swiss People’s Party, the leading
vote getter in a recent vote here, vows to tighten asylum and
immigration laws…a trend throughout Europe as you’ve seen.
Zimbabwe: The government is seeking to postpone elections
from 2008 to 2010 to give Robert Mugabe two more years in
power. Why he’s done such a good job!
Random Musings
–Congress finished up its session having accomplished
absolutely none of the objectives laid out by President Bush in
his State of the Union address, including overhauling Social
Security, medical-malpractice legislation, immigration and
restructuring the tax code.
–But the president did receive his terror detainee legislation that
gives Bush leeway to decide specific interrogation techniques.
On the issue of the National Intelligence Estimate, I’m saving
some comments for next week.
–A new strain of antibiotic-resistant (specifically, methicillin)
Staphylococcus aureus is spreading rapidly; reportedly now in 44
states. Now this is truly scary…even more so than bird flu. It
used to be confined to hospitals but has now been found even in
kindergartens.
–Boy, I see I’m missing another story involving former New
York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, who was asked
to help tail the husband of New York State attorney general
candidate Jeanine Pirro; Ms. Pirro suspecting her dirtball spouse
was fooling around. The plot was never carried out but is now
part of an overall federal investigation into Kerik’s activities.
–I don’t know about you, but I’d still have a problem sitting in
the Superdome, even after its $185 million renovation. The
Saints football team, though, is building a heckuva story in a year
that threatens to be dominated, as he himself wants it, by stories
on Terrell Owens of the Cowboys.
–Bill Clinton, narcissist, went “medieval” in his interview with
Chris Wallace, as Andrew Klavan put it in an op-ed for the Los
Angeles Times. It’s always been about ‘me, me, me’ when it
comes to Bubba. It also makes you yearn for Ronald Reagan.
–Speaking of narcissistic behavior, LT informed me that I’ve
been missing the to-do over the audiotape for former New Jersey
Governor Jim McGreevey’s book. Needless to say, it’s a little
disturbing hearing McGreevey, in his own voice, describe his
adventures. But the self-professed “Gay American” has a
bestseller. Yes, we are truly a nation of idiots.
[And I see that more evidence has been uncovered that New
Jersey Senator Robert Menendez, who most of us knew all along
was a clone of disgraced former senator Robert Torricelli, isn’t
fit to remain in Congress. Just another corrupt politician; one of
New Jersey’s major exports, it so happens.]
–From the stories you’re seeing, it certainly looks like the
November election could be a total fiasco in terms of the voting
procedures. There will be countless claims of fraud and suits
filed and with many congressional races looking close, it’s a
certainty we’ll be talking about some of the disputes come
Christmastime.
–Good story in the Journal on Vanderbilt Chancellor E. Gordon
Gee. One of the three highest paid in his profession with a salary
of $1.4 million, Gee’s lavish parties at the school mansion he
lives in cost an additional $700,000 a year, including a full-time
personal chef. But the school has trouble doing anything about it
because he raises a ton of money.
–There may have been extensive price-gouging going on, but
you still have to give the Irish credit for their enthusiasm in
conducting the Ryder Cup. That was the best part of it, along
with the ovations for Darren Clarke. As for the U.S. effort, it
was once again disgraceful.
–In the latest global warming scare, a scientist at NASA’s
Goddard Institute of Space Studies says the planet is within one
degree Celsius of the tipping point, after which global warming
becomes irreversible. The earth then would be at its warmest
level in one million years. If the temperature increased another 2
or 3 degrees Celsius, water levels would rise 80 feet higher than
today…the same as 2-3 million years ago, back when
Australopithecus Africanus was #2 on the top ten species list; #1
being the Woolly Mammoth, of course.
–A zoological study has found that lionesses prefer males with
bald manes better than long ones, which is why you see so many
lions lining up at your local CVS or Rite Aid to buy the latest
Gillette Mach 42 razor.
–Here’s something the animal kingdom needs to watch out for.
According to the Washington Post, authorities in Maryland and
Virginia, as well as other states, are studying the effect of animal
waste on our water systems. Well we already know that geese
are prime culprits, and for this they should receive the death
penalty, but now there’s talk of making bears, raccoons and other
creatures clean up their act, so to speak. This could be a difficult
issue to resolve.
–300 abandoned cats and dogs from the conflict in Lebanon
were airlifted to an animal shelter in Utah this week. You can be
sure they’ll have a word or two for President Bush.
–And this just in, further proof that humans are incredibly
overrated…Republican Congressman Mark Foley was forced to
resign when he was confronted with highly suggestive e-mail and
text messages sent to congressional pages. I may have to hand
out another joint “Idiot/Dirtball of the Year” trophy. And now
we also know who’s been buying McGreevey’s book.
[Separately, Bob S. passed along the tale of the Chinese who
have been boxing wallabies. There is no doubt humans are going
down a few more notches in my next exclusive survey.]
–Steve Irwin’s wife said her husband always felt he’d die young,
but in a car wreck. I thought I was going to in Romania this
week.
–And a few other random musings on this nation.
I saw a huge oil refinery outside Bucharest; a reminder of why
Hitler was so hot for this country. You do see a lot of oil
derricks in the countryside.
Everyone in both Bulgaria and Romania smokes, a ton.
I’ve had some interesting taxi drivers, though one ripped me off
royally on the fare; an act I read about before coming here.
[Some have a special pedal to jack up the meter.] Most of them
speak some English and one guy started out by saying, “Read me
the streets, I can’t see.”
He turned out to be a delightful guy who at one point said, “You
from England?” “No, America.” “I’ve been to Pennsylvania.
Went to Valley Forge!” He got an extra tip for that.
Lastly, Bran Castle, home to Count Dracula, was a lot of fun.
But before I came over here, Jeff B. asked me to pose a question
for the Drac Man. Alas, I stupidly forgot that Dracula sleeps
during the day so I wasn’t able to see him. But I did meet Count
Yorga of Hollywood fame, so I asked him.
“Was Dracula upset when Count Chocula cereal was removed
from store shelves?”
“Vhy (Count Yorga has a bad accent) in fact he vas. Something
about zee tranzz fats. But where does one go to get his
reputation back?”
I couldn’t help him on this last point, but I bought a trinket
instead.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $603
Oil, $62.91
Returns for the week 9/25-9/29
Dow Jones +1.5% [11679]
S&P 500 +1.6% [1335]
S&P MidCap +1.6%
Russell 2000 +1.0%
Nasdaq +1.8% [2258]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-9/29/06
Dow Jones +9.0%
S&P 500 +7.0%
S&P MidCap +2.2%
Russell 2000 +7.8%
Nasdaq +2.4%
Bulls 47.4
Bears 33.7 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence…both
readings unchanged on the week]
Have a great week. I’m heading back to Prague on Sunday but
will be coming from home next time. It will be good to get back,
as it always is.
Brian Trumbore
