[Posted 5:00 AM ET…from Scottsbluff, NE]
The President and Iraq
I watched President Bush’s press conference on Wednesday with
dismay, though I’ll admit at this point it’s hard to win me over on
any aspect of this administration’s foreign policy, especially
when it comes to Iraq. We, the American people, let this
president off the hook in 2003 and 2004 and we’ve paid a heavy
price.
Following are some thoughts from an editorial in USA Today on
Thursday.
“There continues to be a yawning gap between (President
Bush’s) rhetoric and reality:
“ ‘Absolutely we’re winning,’ Bush said. But only 19 percent of
Americans in last weekend’s USA Today/Gallup Poll agree.
And just 14 percent of Iraqis surveyed recently say the U.S.
impact on their country is mostly positive.
“The United States has ‘no intention of…standing in the crossfire
between rival factions,’ the president said. But that’s exactly
where American troops in Baghdad now find themselves.
“Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is ‘the right man,’ he said,
though shortly before Bush’s news conference the Iraqi leader
denounced a U.S. raid on one of the many militias drawing Iraq
deeper into civil war.
“For all of Bush’s claims to consistency in his policy, the
definition of ‘victory’ has also shifted. At first, he thought
invasion alone would light the fires of democracy. Then it
became a longer-term fight to suppress terrorists and spread
freedom in the Arab Middle East. Now, political rhetoric aside,
it is simply to get out while leaving a functioning, U.S.-allied
government behind.”
A different angle, courtesy of military historian Frederick W.
Kagan, scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, in an op-ed
for the Washington Post.
“It’s been coming for a long time: the idea that fixing Iraq is the
Iraqis’ problem, not ours – that we’ve done all we can and now
it’s up to them….
“The current crisis in Iraq is no more just an Iraqi problem than it
has ever been. The U.S. military destroyed Iraq’s government
and all institutions able to keep civil order. It designated itself an
‘occupying force,’ thereby accepting the responsibility to restore
and maintain such order. And yet U.S. Central Command never
actually made establishing order and security a priority. Its
commander throughout the insurgency, Gen. John Abizaid, has
instead repeatedly declared that America’s role is primarily to
train Iraqi forces to put down their own rebellion and maintain
order.
“By allowing violence and disorder to spread throughout the
country, the Bush administration has broken faith with the Iraqi
people and ignored its responsibilities. It has placed U.S.
security in jeopardy by creating the preconditions for the sort of
terrorist safe haven the president repeatedly warns about and by
demonstrating that no ally can rely on America to be there when
it counts.
“A rapid U.S. withdrawal would lead to catastrophe in Iraq. The
presence of American troops is vital to restraining Iraqi soldiers
– the Iraqis know not to participate in death squad activities
when Americans are around….
“Nor is there any likelihood that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-
Maliki will be able to simultaneously accomplish all the tasks
now demanded of him, especially without American help….
What are his chances if U.S. forces leave, sectarian violence rises
and Iraqis grow ever more pessimistic about the success of their
democratic experiment?….
“Both honor and our vital national interests require establishing
conditions in Iraq that will allow the government to consolidate
and maintain civil peace and good governance. It doesn’t matter
how many ‘trained and ready’ Iraqi soldiers there are, nor how
many provinces are nominally under Iraqi control. If America
withdraws its forces before setting the conditions for the success
of the Iraqi government, we will have failed in our mission and
been defeated in the eyes of our enemies. We will have
dishonored ourselves.”
I agree with Kagan, but now we’re dealing with an
administration that suddenly says “It’s never been a stay the
course strategy” as it flails away in this deadliest of months in
theater. And we have a president who continues to utter inane
statements, such as this gem from Wednesday.
“General Abizaid was describing to me what it’s like to go to
Baghdad markets.”
Oh yeah, it’s a real joy. I do have to hand it to Iraqi civilians
who continue to go about their lives, like in visiting the market,
even though more often than not the pavement beneath their feet
turns blood red. Of course the smartest Iraqis, and the ones with
the wherewithal to do so, have already fled; that is unless they
are of the political class, protected somewhat behind the Green
Zone as they steal from the treasury in the hope one day they can
have a cushy retirement in Paris.
I previously pointed out how laughable it was this summer when
we learned President Bush had read some books on Lincoln, as
well as a “few Shakespeares.” It bears repeating. Just what the
heck did Bush learn from Lincoln? Nothing. If he had he
wouldn’t have stuck with the generals; a largely worthless bunch
of political hacks. Again, didn’t Bush read how many generals
Lincoln went through before settling on Grant?
Bush said in last weekend’s radio address: “Our commanders on
the ground are constantly adjusting their approach to stay ahead
of the enemy.”
These same commanders in 2003 and 2004, when we still had a
chance to take control and provide Iraq’s citizens with the
security they were crying for, failed to have the guts to go to the
president and demand more troops, to fight fire with fire and
make an honest effort to establish law and order. Instead, today
the totally inept General George Casey has to admit that 90
percent of the fighting is within a 30-mile radius of Baghdad. 43
long, excruciating months and we haven’t been able to secure the
capital of the damn place.
And there was Prime Minister Maliki, another pitiful figure. He
wasn’t at the press conference that Casey and Ambassador
Khalilzad held in Baghdad, the one that broached the subject of
setting benchmarks, or timetables (despite the administration’s
claims to the contrary). Why wasn’t he in attendance? President
Bush was asked. “I have no idea why he wasn’t there.”
24 hours later and our president didn’t have a clue on this rather
sensitive subject, so instead there was Maliki, blasting the U.S.
for the raid on Sadr City, saying he hadn’t been informed ahead
of time, while adding “no one has the right to impose a timetable
(on us).” That’s our man in Baghdad. Friend to Moqtada al-
Sadr.
I don’t know what we should do at this point. I stated my case in
’03 and ’04 as succinctly as I possibly could and have been
losing hope ever since. I also can’t believe in a nation of 300
million we end up with the leaders we do, on both sides of the
political aisle.
George Will had the following comment in an op-ed this week.
In September 1942, the U.S. government purchased 58,000 acres
in eastern Tennessee that became a town, Oak Ridge, “an
amazing scientific facility. Thirty-four months after the
purchase, an atomic blast lit the New Mexico desert. After 43
months in Iraq, U.S. forces still struggle to cope with improvised
explosive devices.”
I thought of this in conjunction with a little sightseeing that I did
last Saturday, visiting the lone remaining Titan II nuclear missile
base south of Tucson. [Decommissioned in 1986.] I marveled at
the feat of engineering each of the 54 bases represented; all also
built within 34 months from scratch. Incredible redundancies
were built in. To me it was a monument to what we can achieve.
And then I watch someone like Gen. Casey, or Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the latter once again showing his
disdain for the American people at a briefing on Thursday. We
shouldn’t even be talking about these two these days.
But that would have required President Bush to act. He told us if
anyone’s accountable it’s him. Blame the president, he said.
The buck stops here. Very true, Mr. President. History will
indeed hold you accountable.
Wall Street
Day after day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was setting new
records this week, with the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 5-
and 6-year highs as well. But then on Friday a dose of reality
was delivered in the form of a pretty sour report on third quarter
GDP, up just 1.6 percent. I arrived in Scottsbluff Friday
afternoon and flipped on CNBC to see Larry Kudlow,
Republican shill, say ‘Oh, I guarantee the New York Times and
the Washington Post will spin this number to tell the American
people that the economy is slowing, but I see a lot of good in the
report.’
Huh? Don’t blame the Times and Post on this one, Larry.
Maybe those polls that keep showing more Americans believing
the economy is getting worse, not better, were on to something.
Maybe most Americans, especially those outside the canyons of
Wall Street, correctly feel that while the government’s official
data has been good, and for a while housing seemed like a sure
thing, they remain focused on disappearing pensions and still
rising healthcare and tuition costs, at rates far greater than any
increase in wages they may receive.
I think I’ve proved over the years I’m no liberal when it comes to
economic and tax policies, but facts are facts, and here’s one you
can’t ignore.
Q1: GDP up 5.6 percent
Q2: GDP up 2.6 percent
Q3: GDP up 1.6 percent
And some say Q3 will actually be lower when the revisions come
in. So what kind of spin are you talking about, Larry?
But as we’ve been saying week after week, it all comes down to
housing. Either you believe that housing will land softly like
Dorothy’s house in Kansas, and that in a short while you’ll all be
following the yellow brick road back to riches, or you feel as do I
and many of my friends and contributors to this column that we
have a long ways to go before we can call a bottom in real estate.
And as we discovered in the GDP report, housing, broadly
defined, fell 17 percent. [The consumer, 2/3s of the economy,
was up 3 percent and capital spending was up over 8 percent.]
17 percent! But wait, there’s more.
Earlier in the week we learned the median price on existing home
sales was down 2.2 percent, year over year.
But the median price for new home sales was down an even
greater amount, 9.7 percent!
In this last instance, that 9.7 percent decrease was the biggest
drop since 1970.
The only good news in the housing data this week was the fact
new home sales actually rose (while existing fell). But that was
not only because mortgage rates have remained sanguine,
developers are offering everything under the sun to get you to
take the place off their hands…including two kitchen sinks.
I know I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know,
being the eagle-eyed observers that you are of your own local
scene. But I spent a good deal of my time in the Tucson,
Arizona, area driving around and all I saw were the big boys,
building massive developments, with signs offering all kinds of
incentives.
DR Horton, Clayton, Lennar, KB Home, US Home…these are
some of the bigger ones I jotted down in my drive-thrus.
What the casual observer doesn’t pick up on, but what you know
all about from reading this column, is that the homebuilders
haven’t just been overdeveloping, they are liable for all that land
that they may now opt not to build on. That’s what keeps their
managements up at night, I can guarantee you. So much of it
was purchased at the very top, of course, with massive leverage.
Back in New Jersey, we’ve had a few instances of fairly sizable
developers going Chapter 11 already, before any of the real bills
come due.
So to those who say housing, and thus the U.S. economy, are
going to fall softly, I say you have a hard time convincing me.
But…I do agree that for right now, when it comes to the
consumer and sentiment, as the readings are proving in this
regard, oil continues to trump real estate. In other words that
little hypothetical of mine from weeks ago, hard annual savings
of $450 at the pump versus a paper loss of $25,000 to $50,000
on your home, continues to carry more weight.
That will change too, however. Josh P. in San Diego passed
along an observation concerning an exclusive development he
has watched closely over the past year. A group of doctors
purchased some spec properties, looking to make a killing, but
then the market slammed to a halt. And now, no matter how
much they slash prices, no one is biting.
What has amazed so many of us is how quickly psychology has
changed. But it still has been slow to impact consumer spending
and falling oil has had everything to do with it. One thing is very
clear, however. The days of using one’s home equity as a debit
card or piggy bank are over. The official numbers don’t reflect
that yet, but they will. All together now….wait 24 hours.
There was other news on the week, I hasten to add, and
obviously some of it was quite good or the markets wouldn’t
have ended up as they did, before taking gas on Friday’s GDP
data.
Earnings, for one, have been super; up over 17 percent for the
third quarter as reported thus far. This week’s winners included
the likes of DuPont, Amgen and Lockheed Martin, but you still
had some losers, namely Texas Instruments, Phelps Dodge, and
Ford (more on this one later).
And I’d be remiss in not mentioning the Federal Reserve. The
fact I waited until now to do so is probably a sign they think
they’re doing a good job. Ben Bernanke and Co. held the line on
interest rates again, but the Fed appears to have far more
confidence in the health of the economy than some of us do. In
fact the Fed appears to be more optimistic than last time, talking
of ‘moderate’ growth going forward, which translates to 2 to 3
percent. A soft landing, in other words. They concede housing
is an issue, but at the same time the board offers inflation isn’t
really one so, net/net, it all comes out a positive by their way of
thinking.
Back to earnings, though, in conjunction with the Fed’s
comments. Bernanke better be right in his forecast of solid
growth for the foreseeable future because many more quarters
like the third and there is no way in hell you’ll see double-digit
earnings growth in the future, as currently forecast by most.
One other note on earnings. The last two weeks we’ve seen two
companies, Intel and Amazon, report declining numbers, year
over year, yet the Street has rewarded them for the basic reason
that the two could’ve been worse. In other words, this past year
we’ve seen the manipulation game come back with a vengeance.
I don’t doubt that both Intel and Amazon have some good things
to say, and in light of the problems they’ve had the past few
years there’s something to be said for “stability.” But I would
also note that in the case of Amazon, it is looking to reduce
capital spending to shore up earnings. That’s significant. See
below.
Street Bytes
–Stocks finished modestly higher, as alluded to above, with the
Dow Jones tacking on another 0.7 percent to finish at 12090 after
hitting a new high on Thursday of 12163. The S&P 500 and
Nasdaq held gains of 0.6 and 0.4 percent, respectively.
Aside from the GDP number on Friday, the market also had to
deal with a potentially critical call from a Goldman Sachs tech
analyst in Asia who said global circuit board shipments to PC
manufacturers and the like were “falling off a cliff.” What’s
hard to determine is how much of this is tied to Microsoft and the
wait for its new Vista software, and how much is really tied to
the actual economy. Plus Goldman has a way of playing
(talking) its own book, as we saw with its call early this year that
oil was going to soar well above $100; though in Friday’s
instance I obviously wouldn’t be surprised if the global call
proves prescient.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.14% 2-yr. 4.75% 10-yr. 4.68% 30-yr. 4.80%
Bonds staged a powerful late-week rally on the soft housing
numbers and GDP report. Sentiment has been changing every
few days in the trading pits. One week the economy is
strengthening, meaning inflation could still be an issue and the
Fed may have to resume raising rates. The next week, like the
one just past, the data reveals the economy to be slowing faster
than expected, and thus the Fed may actually have to lower rates
down the road to prevent an outright recession. Next week
brings the key employment figure for October and we’ll have
more data to chew on.
I would just add two other items. A report by McGraw-Hill says
construction spending is going to decline in 2007, a huge
negative if true, while I have my own observation from a drive
on Interstate 10 from Tucson to Las Cruces, New Mexico, on
Sunday.
I-10 parallels the freight line that goes from El Paso (and further
points east and north) to Los Angeles / Long Beach. I have to
admit it was fascinating watching all the trains…one after
another. That’s obviously a sign of some health, one I couldn’t
ignore.
But I was also amused that half the freight cars either said
“China Shipping” or “Hanjin.” Lesson learned.
–Exxon Mobil reported its 2nd-largest profit ever in the third
quarter, $10.5 billion despite falling oil prices since July. Many
will decry that Exxon is still earning this much, but it’s also a
reminder from yours truly that with huge profits come huge tax
revenues for the government. In other words, the budget deficit
picture should continue to look fairly good with the oil
companies fueling the increased take on the corporate tax front.
–Oil and gas prices firmed further this week, ostensibly on far
lower inventory data than was expected and generally colder
weather across regions that are heavy consumers of the stuff.
And when you see gasoline futures at $1.55, off a low of around
$1.40, that tells you one thing. We’ve probably seen the bottom
on the average price at the pump.
–Ford lost $5.8 billion for the quarter, far more than expected,
and the company announced it needs to restate earnings all the
way back to 2001 due to a new look at its accounting for
derivatives. [I can relate to this. My carbon fiber holding has
been dealing with a similar issue the past year.] Ford, however,
is not offering any better news for the current quarter on an
operating basis.
As some have said, Ford does have a knack for turning success
into failure. Case in point, the Taurus.
I’m currently renting a Taurus for this trip and the other morning
I was packing up the car in Santa Fe. So I click the remote to
open the trunk and the trunk of a car two down from what I
thought was mine opened up.
Turns out there were three identical white Taurus lined up next
to each other, all with Arizona plates. And therein lies the story
of the demise of a model that in the mid-90s was the best-selling
in America.
Ford is an expert at cannibalizing its best. As the Taurus was
selling like hot cakes, 400,000 a year, Ford had the brilliant idea
of flooding the rental car market…yup, fleet sales were the way
to go, they thought.
But all Ford ended up doing was significantly reduce the resale
value and, coupled with a failure to redesign Taurus to change
with the times, the attraction of the model was soon surpassed by
the competition; namely Toyota and Honda.
Look how long the Honda Accord has been successful. When it
starts to age, Honda comes up with a new look and features so
it’s still a popular brand. [I’m on my 3rd Accord myself.]
So has Ford learned anything? Doubtful…and the earnings
prove it. As for the Taurus, the last one rolled off the assembly
line this Friday.
–Holiday airfares will be up 15 percent on average this year over
last.
–Wal-Mart, listening to its shareholders, announced it would
reduce capital spending (i.e., slow store expansion) in favor of
improving earnings. But you see news like this, and that of
Amazon, as stated above, and while the moves are good for
shareholder value, if you’re reducing cap-ex, those involved on
the other side (contractors, IT experts) are suddenly receiving
some negative surprises when it comes to their own futures.
That eventually translates into fewer jobs, at least by my back of
the beer coaster calculation.
–Enron’s Jeffrey Skilling was sentenced to 24 years. He’ll be an
expert at convincing prison officials he made 1,000 license plates
when the total was really six.
–The initial public offering of ICBC, China’s largest lender, was
up 10 percent its first day of trading in Hong Kong, a
disappointing debut to some. That was also Hong Kong, not
New York.
–E85, the ethanol blended gasoline, can corrode the gas pumps,
as well as the actual underground storage tanks, according to
Underwriters Laboratories. The more we learn, the more we
realize we are being taken to the cleaners.
[I know. But what of Brazil and the success they’re having with
ethanol? I honestly don’t know the details, but do you really
think Brazilians think of corroding tanks like we do? Ever been
to some of these countries? All you see are corroding tanks.
And that’s a memo.]
–The European Union warned China on its trade policies; open
up or face protectionism. The EU has been suffering on the
outsourcing front and in weakening exports in some industries as
much as the U.S. has.
–Barry Diller, chairman of IAC/Interactive, raked in $295
million in total compensation in 2005, by one estimate. [Another
pegged it at a mere $85 million, depending on how you account
for his options holdings. Regardless, he’s getting by, you might
say.]
–Blackstone Group is increasing the size of its record private-
equity buyout pool to $20 billion. But as the private-equity craze
continues, some players are beginning to sour on the often
outrageous fees and tactics (such as extracting huge dividends)
that the bankers are employing at the expense of shareholders.
–Anheuser-Busch admitted some of its brands such as Bud Light
are beginning to lose market share to Heineken’s new Premium
Light. I noted last month, following a reunion of my high school
poker group, that we had agreed this would be the case. [Though
to be fair to Anheuser-Busch, it still commands about 100 Xs the
market of Heineken’s entry.]
–The New York Times reported that congressional authorities
are looking into the SEC’s investigation into hedge fund Pequot
Capital Management, which the agency cleared a while back of
any wrongdoing following allegations by an SEC whistleblower.
But a congressional committee is finding the SEC’s original
probe was riddled with conflicts of interest, including the fact
investigators may have looked the other way with regards to
John Mack, then with Pequot and now CEO of Morgan Stanley,
due to his heavy support for the Republican Party and President
Bush.
As yet, however, it doesn’t appear Mack did anything illegal, but
e-mails that are surfacing, authored by Pequot chief Art
Samberg, are damning and smack of insider trading.
–IBM is suing Amazon over its ‘building block’ patents that
facilitate e-commerce. IBM tried talking settlement with
Amazon for years, but Amazon was unreceptive to any kind of
arrangement for ripping off IBM’s technology.
–Sunday’s Washington Post had a front page story on click
fraud; yet another on this growing issue that one day will finally
knock Google down a peg or two.
–The Post also reported on a significant increase in activity
involving hackers from Eastern Europe who are accessing online
brokerage accounts and making trades worth $millions;
ostensibly to drive up share prices so that they can then dump
their holdings in other accounts….using your money. Isn’t that
clever?
–Newcomers into the European Union, such as the group that
was admitted a few years ago, are learning to play the game that
many Old Europe countries have since the formation of the
economic club; lie to gain more subsidies. For example,
Slovenian farmers submit claims that they have twice the cattle
they actually do and they then get twice the money.
–Finally, voters in Panama overwhelmingly approved an
expansion of the 92-year-old Panama Canal. Panama was
increasingly losing out to competitors such as the Suez Canal
because of heavy fees and often long delays. Here are some facts
I found interesting from a piece by Will Weissert of the AP.
“About 25 of the 37 ships passing through on an average day pay
up to $200,000 to reserve a spot in line, which on top of regular
tolls pushes the cost of crossing Panama to more than $400,000
for the largest ships….
“Even a ship that has a reservation waits an average of 16 hours
before moving through, and those without reservations wait an
average of 28 hours – delays that cost shippers about $50,000 a
day per vessel. And when the canal needs routine maintenance,
the delays can grow to six or seven days, with more than 100
ships lining up to get through.”
So now Panama will build a third set of locks on both the
Atlantic and Pacific sides, creating a separate lane for larger
ships while doubling total capacity.
Foreign Affairs
North Korea: It turns out the high-level Chinese envoy who met
with Kim Jong-il lied to the world in floating the story Kim
apologized for the nuke test. Now the envoy denies this, which
is why Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it never
happened.
For its part Pyongyang warned Seoul not to go along with UN
sanctions, while suddenly you’re seeing the same old stories that
North Korea has enough plutonium “for 8 bombs” as the press
recycles everyone else’s material. To which I reply, no one
knows, so why keep putting out this pablum?!
Iran: Speaking of not having a clue, remember how just a few
weeks ago “experts” were claiming that Iran was falling behind
in the uranium enrichment game? I said, again, ‘How would we
possibly know?’ So this week International Atomic Energy
Agency chief Mohammed ElBaradei said Iran is speeding up the
enrichment of uranium because it has added a second centrifuge
cascade, a fact the government later admitted. Why golly gee, I
thought Iran was having problems accomplishing this?
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Europe can’t seem to agree on a
renewed sanctions effort against the mullahs, while Russia is
vehemently opposed because, after all, it is committed to
building a new atomic reactor for Iran for $800 million.
Separately, Argentina showed real guts in issuing arrest warrants
for a number of Iranian and Hizbullah officials, formally
charging them with carrying out the 1994 bombing of the Jewish
center in Buenos Aires that killed 85. One of those implicated is
former Iranian President Rafsanjani.
Afghanistan: It appears NATO airstrikes, going after the
Taliban, inadvertently killed anywhere from 12 to 85 civilians,
depending on the source. These mistakes are having a huge
negative impact on public opinion and helping the Taliban, hard
as that may be to comprehend.
China: The commies told bloggers they must register under their
real names, while French President Jacques Chirac summed up
the question of China these days thusly.
“(China’s success) fascinates, (but) these successes raise
questions; those of outsourcing, of respect for market economic
rules. The image of China is…about its political and social
evolution, the ecological impact of its growth, its world
ambition.” [South China Morning Post]
To which I’d answer, China has no respect for any of the above.
The only field where they are showing some modicum of giving
a damn is on the environment, because they’re finally realizing
they are poisoning their own people.
Russia: President Vladimir Putin told his countrymen he will
retain his influence even after he leaves office following 2008’s
election, which can mean about anything. What he did add is
that he reserves the right to handpick his successor, which we all
knew he would, and whoever he tabs will walk away with the
election in a landslide.
Putin also refused to sign an energy cooperation agreement with
the European Union.
And then you had the lovely case of the big art gallery owner in
Moscow who was visited by skinheads, who then promptly beat
the crap out of him and trashed the works of a Georgian artist he
was displaying. I can virtually guarantee Putin smiled upon
hearing this, seeing as Putin continues to threaten Georgia
himself.
Lebanon: Speaker Nabi Berri, the Hizbullah sympathizer, is
calling for a meeting with all political parties for the purpose of
forming a national unity government. The Pro-West faction,
including Prime Minister Siniora, doesn’t want this, countering
that Hizbullah is to blame for the war and the predicament it left
Lebanon in. Berri obviously sees the conference as a way to
increase, not decrease, Hizbullah’s influence.
As for Israel and its role, it continues to flyover Lebanese
sovereign territory, claiming it’s monitoring arms smuggling.
There is also some question as to whether Israeli fighter jets
buzzed a German warship in waters off Lebanon.
Britain: A Guardian poll revealed that 61 percent of Brits want
their troops withdrawn from Iraq, while on a different issue the
Blair government announced it would establish quotas for both
skilled and unskilled workers coming from Bulgaria and
Romania upon their admittance into the European Union on
January 1st. Quite a change from Britain’s past open-door
policy.
Sudan: The dictator in Khartoum expelled the special UN envoy
for speaking the truth about Darfur as well as the Army’s recent
setbacks against the rebels.
Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez is continuing to fight for the
Latin American spot on the UN Security Council, now 41 ballots
and counting, saying he wanted to keep the candidacy alive to
“damage” the United States.
Brazil: President Luiz da Silva is expected to romp in the runoff
this Sunday.
Germany: The Merkel government is committed to expanding
the military in order to enable Germany to be more of a player on
the international security scene. Good! [Though kind of funny
how some of us are fired up to see Japan and Germany become
more militaristic. It’s a new world, sports fans.]
Random Musings
–As more and more polls come out, President Bush’s overall job
approval rating remains stuck in the 36 to 38 percent range, and
to me that is the ultimate indicator, if you could pick just one,
that foretells a probable disaster for Republicans in about ten
days.
But if you don’t agree with that take, then look at the following.
68 percent of self-described Republicans say they would vote for
a Republican candidate. Not exactly the normal 90 percent.
[Reuters/Zogby]
By a 59 / 31 margin, Independents say they are prepared to vote
Democrat. [ABC News/Washington Post]
And it’s interesting how some high-profile figures continue to
abandon the leader of their own party.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Iraq was “on the verge
of chaos” and Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson
offered she would have voted against the war if she had known
Saddam didn’t possess weapons of mass destruction.
–But what if the Republicans manage to hold on to both Houses
of Congress? George Will observed, “If you have a country that
is unhappy and then changes nothing, then you really have
problems.”
–New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has a significant
national profile, so I found it kind of curious that New Mexico
voters find him to be honest by only a 41 / 27 margin. Then
again, this is a fellow who lied about being a professional
baseball player.
–John Edwards’ wife Elizabeth said she’s “happier” and “more
joyful” than Senator Hillary Clinton. When the comments
caused a little firestorm, Elizabeth said Ladies Home Journal
misquoted her. Oh yeah, the controversial Ladies Home Journal.
Always out to get someone.
–So I’ve seen a ton of campaign commercials in Arizona, New
Mexico and Colorado and all the Republican ads stress one thing,
security. Rudy Giuliani is doing spots for the gubernatorial
candidate in Colorado along those lines. Gotta build up those
chips for 2008.
–CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo asked President Bush if he ever
googled anyone. “I use the Google to look at my ranch,” said
our leader. “It reminds me where I want to be sometimes.”
Now can’t you just imagine one of his all too eager aides going
to Bush one day, “Here, Mr. President, look what you can do
with Google!”
So the president admitted to Maria he uses ‘the Google’ for its
map feature. There is no indication he uses the Internet for
anything else, but just once I’d like to hear Bush say something
like the following.
“Aside from the Google, I use the Net to read newspapers around
the world. You know, find out what other people are thinking,
even if I’m not going to like a lot of what I see. It’s not all about
America these days, you know. We’re in it together.”
Quick. Snap me out of my dream.
–Obamamania will run its course in due time. I caught the
senator’s interview on “Meet the Press” and, yes, he did OK. No
doubt he’s impressive. But we’ve all seen this before. Or, in
other words, wait 24 hours.
–Arizona voters have to decide on 19 different ballot initiatives.
Totally absurd. What the heck do the legislators do all year?
–Kevin Tillman, former Army Ranger and brother of the late Pat
Tillman, broke a two-year silence on Pat’s tragic death.
“Somehow, the more soldiers that die, the more legitimate the
illegal invasion (of Iraq) becomes….Somehow, nobody is
accountable for this.”
–Danny Harold Rolling was executed this week for the 1990
killing of five University of Florida students. Rolling pleaded
guilty and there was never any doubt in the case. So why did it
take so long to put him to death? Why, I always ask myself, do
some people oppose the death penalty? But now, at least for a
while, I’m reminded of the example set by the Amish. I don’t
agree, but I also can’t help but think of them.
–It’s a local story but I just found it interesting. 21 percent of
NYPD cops took the sergeant’s exam this year, down from 44
percent in 2002. So the question some are asking is, is there a
lack of commitment these days? Attaining the sergeant’s rank is
something that every cop used to aspire to. But some are
pointing to the fact that until you reach the top sergeant grade,
these days the difference in pay is minimal. I just find it
disturbing that more seem satisfied with the lower rank. In a
convoluted way, it’s kind of like the above comparison of how
we built the A-bomb, but now can’t protect our troops. In other
words, are we losing our edge…our competitive drive and spirit?
–A growing number of U.S. soldiers are so deeply in debt that
they are not fit for overseas duty as they are viewed as security
risks; subject to bribes and such.
–Last Saturday, plastic bags filled with explosives were left on
five bicycles in Iraq and went off with the expected carnage. I
told you a while back that many of the new techniques employed
by terrorists emanate from Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers. This
particular example was highlighted by me when first used there,
and I added it would find its way into Iraq.
–Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals. This is one of those
franchises that deserves to win every 10 or 15 years, just to keep
a link to baseball’s glory days.
–Men who are heavy users of cellphones have significantly
lower sperm counts, according to a study by the esteemed
Cleveland Clinic. This is one reason why whenever possible I
still use a tin can and string, though I admit it’s difficult to
contact someone on the other side.
–So on Wednesday I drove up to Colorado Springs from Santa
Fe, N.M. It was a gorgeous day and a fun drive for the most part,
filled with mountain vistas. But as I approached my destination,
I kept hearing on the local radio stations that there was a blizzard
watch for early Thursday. It was 63 degrees late Wednesday
afternoon when I checked into my hotel.
Well, I’ve done some foolish things in my life, but I’ve also
learned to plan for the worst. So seeing that my Homewood
Suites (I love these guys) room was complete with a refrigerator
and microwave, I went grocery shopping in case I was snowed in
Thursday.
And sure enough I was; this area’s worst storm in nine years.
We had 18 inches of snow where I was, but except for a minor
outage in accessing the Net, the fact my trip to Nebraska was
delayed a day wasn’t too big of a deal.
Four years ago I was also snowed in in Colorado Springs at the
same time of year, so one thing I’ve learned is late October is
iffy. But now I’m ready for an easier pace, after a long drive
through Indian territory once I finish posting this column. This
coming week I’ll be in the Black Hills of South Dakota, one of
my favorite spots in the world, playing some blackjack in
Deadwood and, weather permitting, hitting up Devil’s Tower in
Wyoming, another gorgeous site.
And thanks to family friend Steve G. for the personal tour of
Colorado Springs. I’ve been here a few times before and it
impresses me more with each visit. Next time, though, I’ll pack
a shovel.
Finally, USA Today had a cover story on Friday titled “Where
will everybody live?” in addressing the fact we will grow as a
nation from 300 million to 400 million in about another 30 years.
Of course it talks about the fact there is more than enough open
space left, and I sure saw a hell of a lot of it this week in
traversing barren sections of Arizona, New Mexico, southern
Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
Basically, though, it comes down to water. In fact, worldwide,
it’s more or less all about water. Kind of funny when you think
about how the earth was created, regardless of your religious
belief. It’s always been about water.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $602
Oil, $60.73
Returns for the week 10/23-10/27
Dow Jones +0.7% [12090]
S&P 500 +0.6% [1377]
S&P MidCap +0.9%
Russell 2000 +0.5%
Nasdaq +0.4% [2350]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-10/27/06
Dow Jones +12.8%
S&P 500 +10.3%
S&P MidCap +6.7%
Russell 2000 +13.8%
Nasdaq +6.6%
Bulls 52.7
Bears 30.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support. Next time from
Rapid City, S.D. I’ll try and sum up what I see as the mood in
this part of the country as we approach the election; not that my
conclusion will be any different from your own at this stage.
It’s called surly.
Brian Trumbore
