[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Report to the President
Following are various opinions on the Iraq Study Group’s report,
as well as the state of the war in general.
President George W. Bush
“This report gives a very tough assessment of the situation in
Iraq. It is a report that brings some really very interesting
proposals, and we will take every proposal seriously and we will
act in a timely fashion….This report will give us all an
opportunity to find common ground, for the good of the
country.”
Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.)
“This report is an acknowledgement that there will be no military
solution in Iraq. It will require a political solution arrived at
through sustained Iraqi and region-wide diplomacy and
engagement.”
Bronwen Maddox / London Times
“James Baker and Lee Hamilton have delivered a superb, blunt
account of the U.S.’s ‘dire’ and ‘deteriorating’ predicament in
Iraq. Options have not yet been exhausted, they say, although
none may now succeed; they have identified the few potentially
workable ones that remain.
“Their strongest recommendation is to plan to pull U.S. combat
troops out by the spring of 2008, and to warn the Iraq
Government that it may have only that period to bring warring
groups together and improve security.
“The first weakness is that the panel members allowed
themselves nine months to deliberate, holding back their
conclusions until a month after the congressional elections, and
published the report too late. The panel’s plea for President
Bush now to respond quickly, in case events overtake the
recommendations, is an embarrassment.
“The second is that in the members’ proper but relentless search
for ‘pragmatism,’ they ditch the idealism about the promotion of
democratic values that accompanied the Iraq invasion. They
advocate dealing with regimes that have been steadily
malevolent to the U.S. in a desperate quest for stability….
“On Iran, it begins with some sensible suggestions. First, that
the U.S. is simply in too weak a position to strike any deal while
it has so many troops in Iraq.
“Secondly, that it might use the notional threat of Saudi
assistance for Iraq’s Sunnis to get Iran to the table.
“But in saying that Iran’s nuclear ambitions should be dealt with
separately, in the United Nations Security Council, it ducks the
central problem; that the U.S. wants Iran to help to achieve
stability in Iraq but does not want to pay the price Iran has
implicitly asked – to tolerate its nuclear ambitions.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“As for specific proposals, the Study Group proves Robert
Gates’s point from his nomination hearing on Tuesday that ‘there
are no new ideas on Iraq.’ Its best proposal – embedding more
American troops to train and fight with Iraqi military units – is
well under way at the Pentagon. It has been clear for some time
that the Iraqi Army needs at least to double its current size, and
the presence of U.S. troops with Iraqi units has produced better
results.
“On the other hand, the ISG’s proposal to negotiate with Iran and
Syria is a very old idea that isn’t likely to go anywhere. The
report argues that because both Iran and Syria have an ‘interest in
avoiding chaos in Iraq,’ they will want to cooperate in some
larger regional settlement.
“Come again? Iran’s leadership proclaims its satisfaction with
the U.S. troubles in Iraq on an almost daily basis. They seem to
believe their interest lies in bleeding the U.S. so much that no
President will ever contemplate regime change anywhere else for
a very long time. In any case, while Iran and Syria can harm us
in Iraq at the margins, Iraq’s sectarian violence is primarily
indigenous – fomented by Sunni Baathists and their al Qaeda
allies, and countered by Shiite militias.”
Eliot Cohen / Op-Ed Wall Street Journal
“What we need in Iraq is not a New Diplomatic Offensive
(capitals in the original) so much as energy and competence in
fighting the fight. From the outset of the Iraq war much of our
difficulty has stemmed not so much from failures to find the right
strategy, as from an astounding and depressing inability to
implement the strategic and operational choices we have
nominally made.
“This inability has come from things as personal as picking the
wrong people for key positions, in the apparent belief that
generals are interchangeable cogs in a counterinsurgency
machine. It has come from an unwillingness or inability to grab
the bureaucracy by the throat and make it act – which is why,
three years after the insurgency began, we still send soldiers out
to risk roadside bomb attacks in overweight Humvees when there
are half a dozen commercially available armored vehicles
designed to minimize the effects of such blasts….
“We have not come up to the brink of failure because we did not
know how important it is to employ young Iraqi men or to keep
detained insurgents out of circulation or to prevent militia
penetration of the security forces by vetting the commanders of
those forces. We have known these things – but we have not
done these things.”
Ralph Peters / New York Post
“The difference between the child-killers in the Middle East
2,000 years ago and those today is that Herod’s men rode into
Bethlehem to preserve a threatened political system, while the
terrorists we face in Iraq seek to destroy a government in their
god’s name.
“The Iraq Study Group doesn’t get it.
“Today’s butchers are far more merciless, indiscriminate and
dangerous. For Herod’s henchmen, killing was a job. For
today’s faith-fueled fanatics, slaughtering the innocents is doing
Allah’s will. Our modern magis’ negotiations won’t fix Iraq, no
matter what gifts they bring.
“Former Secretary of State James Baker and his panelists are
trying to shore up the failing regional system that their
generation designed….(The) report doesn’t offer ‘a new way
forward.’ Its recommendations echo past failures. And it shows
no sense of how gravely the world has changed….
“By tying Iraq to Palestine, Baker makes the problem
immeasurably tougher, not easier. The Palestinian problem isn’t
the cause of all that’s gone wrong, just another symptom. If Iraq
can’t be fixed without resolving the Palestinian issue, then the
answer is that Iraq can’t be fixed.
“(What Baker) argues for is the traditional Saudi and Arabist
view that the Middle East’s problems are Israel’s fault….
“Baker believes in strong central governments. Just as he once
insisted that the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia should stay
together, he now demands (without asking the Iraqis) that Iraq
remain rigidly unified….
“But perhaps the most striking aspect of the report is its
underlying nostalgia. Baker longs for the ‘orderly’ world of
Saddam Hussein, the Shah of Iran, the elder Assad and, above
all, unchallenged Saudi influence in Washington.
“The report cries out for an appendix listing Baker’s many
contacts with Saudis over the decades and all the Saudi-related
financial pies in which he had a finger. After all of the blame-it-
on-Israel criticism of the neoconservatives, the media have been
strangely quiet about Baker’s extensive ties to Riyadh.”
Editorial / New York Post
“After nine laborious months, the Iraq Study Group yesterday
recommended that there be peace in the Middle East. Well, of
course. But how to achieve it?
“One word: Surrender. Surrender in Iraq – and, in due time but
inevitably, beyond.”
[On the issue of Israel]
“Israel has made every manner of concession, fruitlessly. To this
day, Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran vow only to erase Israel from the
map.
“But the group wants more diplomacy, because it sees the Arab-
Israeli conflict as central to the Middle East puzzle.
“Which is nonsense: Israel, in fact, is a vivid symbol of the
broader clash between Islamic fundamentalists and jihadis, and
Western civilization.
“Ending the conflict there can come only with victory in the War
on Terror – not the other way around….
“Why would (Iran and Syria) agree to help their enemies –
America and Israel?
“The answer: They wouldn’t.”
David Ignatius / Washington Post
“The final reason to embrace the Baker-Hamilton report is that
its combination of cut-your-losses pragmatism and earnest do-
gooderism will reassure the world that America has turned a
page on Iraq. The level of anti-American sentiment in the
Middle East these days is genuinely frightening. It has become
the organizing principle of political life, even in once-friendly
countries such as Lebanon. This is the real national security
threat to America – this sense in the rest of the world that Iraq
symbolizes America’s fatal new combination of arrogance and
incompetence.”
Shelby Steele / Op-Ed Wall Street Journal
“Islamic extremism is an ideology of menace. It empowers those
who, but for menace, would languish in the world’s disregard.
The dark achievement of bin Laden, Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad,
names we know only because of their association to menace, is
that they have used menace to make their people visible in the
world, to bring them back into the scheme of history. And they
are greatly loved for this. If their achievements follow from evil
rather than from good, this is a small thing. Worse than evil is
invisibility.
“So, in the Middle East, America has gone to war not against
Islam but against menace as a formula for power – menace as the
force that brings the First World in toe to the Third, and that
makes bargaining between the two inevitable. Whether the issue
is an obsession with nuclear weapons or terrorism in London or
assaults against Israel, menace is the power that draws the West
backwards into engagement with otherwise forgotten parts of the
world. Iran cannot produce a digital camera or a Ferrari but,
through menace, it can affect the balance of power in the world.
We in the West, and especially America, then, are at war with
menace – the indulgence of evil for strategic advantage –
because today it is the power that most compromises us.
“And yet Americans are also at war in the Middle East with our
own fate as the world’s singular superpower. Our sacrifice is
more in proportion to our responsibility as a superpower than to
our survival as a nation. We fight menace in Iraq and yet we
know that complete victory there will only make us into
colonialists, and thus expand our level of responsibility even
further. So we fight a little against victory even as we fight for
it. At the beginning of this war we delivered the ‘shock’ but not
the ‘awe,’ and then as the insurgency developed, we made a kind
of space for it, almost as if we believed it had a right to fight us.
Victory threatens us with the obligations and moral stigma of
empire.
“Only reluctant superpowers go to war with a commitment to
fight until they can escape. So today the talk is of ‘draw-downs,’
‘redeployments,’ etc. But all these options are undermined by
the fact that we simply have not won the war….
“For every reason, from the humanitarian to the geopolitical to
the military, Iraq is a war that America must win in the
hegemonic, even colonial sense. It is a test of our civilization’s
commitment to the good against the alluring notion of menace-
as-power that has gripped so much of the Muslim world. Today
America is a danger to the world in its own right, not because we
are a powerful bully but because we don’t fully accept who we
are. We rush to war as a superpower protecting the world from
menace, then leave the battle winning as a show of what,
humility? We confuse our enemies, discouraging them one
minute and encouraging them the next.
“Could it be that our enemies are really paper tigers made
formidable by our unceasing ambivalence? And could it be that
the greater good is in both the idea and the reality of American
victory?”
George Will / Washington Post
“(In the) week before the ISG’s report, the leaked Donald
Rumsfeld memo urged policy to ‘go minimalist.’ That is
generally good advice to government, but much of the rest of the
memo, with its 21 ‘illustrative new courses of action’ – a large
number, and evidence that none is especially promising – echoed
the 1960s Great Society confidence in government-engineered
behavior modification: jobs programs for unemployed young
Iraqis, reallocation funds to ‘stop rewarding bad behavior’ and
‘start rewarding good behavior,’ and bribery (‘provide money to
key political and religious leaders’)….
“Look back two years. In June 2004, at the time the Coalition
Provisional Authority was to transfer sovereignty to what it
thought would be an Iraqi government, Americans were toiling
to finish their work of occupation: ‘A lawyer who had once
clerked for Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist was
poring over a draft edict requiring Iraqi political parties to
engage in American-style financial disclosure.’ Such surreal
vignettes abound in ‘Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside
Iraq’s Green Zone,’ by The Post’s Rajiv Chandrasekaran. The
book, which should be read along with the ISG report, would be
hilarious were it not horrifying that so much valor and suffering
have been expended in this context:
“Halliburton, writes Chandrasekaran, hired Pakistanis and
Indians, but no Iraqis, for kitchen work. ‘Nobody ever explained
why, but everyone knew. They could poison the food.’ Of the
CPA staff, ‘More than half, according to one estimate, had gotten
their first passport in order to travel to Iraq.’ Two CPA staffers
said that before they were hired, they were asked if they
supported Roe v. Wade. The traffic code the CPA wrote for Iraq
stipulated that ‘the driver shall hold the steering wheel with both
hands’ and ‘rest should be taken for five minutes for every one
hour of driving.’ But Chandrasekaran’s driver, who like other
Iraqis had obeyed the laws under Saddam’s police state, began
disregarding all traffic laws. ‘When I asked him what he was
doing, he turned to me, smiled, and said, ‘Mr. Rajiv, democracy
is wonderful. Now we can do whatever we want.’’
“Not exactly.”
Senator John McCain (R-AZ.), in various settings in response to
the Baker/Hamilton report.
“There’s only one thing worse than an overstressed Army and
Marine Corps, and that’s a defeated Army and Marine Corps….
“I believe that this [report] is a recipe that will lead to, sooner or
later, our defeat in Iraq….
“We must be realistic about what Iranian and Syrian participation
is likely to achieve. Our interests diverge significantly from
those of Damascus and Tehran, and this is unlikely to change
under the current regimes….
“Our troops should be sent to Baghdad, or anywhere in Iraq, in
order to complete a defined mission, not to serve until some
predetermined date passes. Such a step would complicate our
considerable difficulties.”
This has been yet another dark week for America, at least in the
eyes of this reporter. Not just because the ISG report described
the situation in Iraq as “grave and deteriorating” or because the
incoming Secretary of Defense Robert Gates admitted in his
confirmation hearings the U.S. was not winning, but because
what’s going on in the entire Middle East, and the debate
surrounding it, points to one critical fact. We have a president
who simply isn’t up to the job.
I ask you to envision that you’re on a desert isle and each day a
bottle washes up with quotes from President Bush since the
invasion of Iraq. Reading in such a vacuum you’d probably
muse, “Boy, I’m glad there is such a man leading the Free World
at this critical time. Go Bush.” Not only have Bush’s words
seemed steadfast, but they also show flexibility, as when he
uttered for the hundredth time in his press conference with
British Prime Minister Tony Blair “We are willing to change as
the enemy has changed.”
Then imagine one day a crate washes up on the beach containing
the newspapers of the past three years and soon reality is
slapping you in the face.
What’s particularly frustrating for a neocon like me who feels
totally abandoned is that some on the far right continue to blindly
follow their talk show leaders and don’t want to deal with the
truth. Stop defending President Bush.
The best line of the week was uttered by former senator Alan
Simpson, a member of the ISG, who said at the panel’s
Wednesday press conference “This report is not going to please
the 100 percenters,” meaning those on the extremes of both the
far right and the far left. Today’s media continually tries to
break the country down to 100 percenters, and here I sit,
increasingly just right of center, with just the facts.
America is increasingly irrelevant. America is losing the war in
Iraq. Iran is nearing a day when it will have nuclear weapons.
North Korea already has them. Lebanon is on the verge of
collapse and civil war. Parts of Afghanistan are actually back
under Taliban control. Russia is once again a bully, with far
more weapons of mass destruction than the entire Middle East
combined, and an increasingly erratic leader who is sanctioning
assassination. China is rapidly building up an offensive military
capability, while hiding under its economic juggernaut and
mammoth holdings of U.S. securities which at a moment’s notice
can be used as a different kind of WMD. Even much of Latin
America is no longer the bastion of democracy it was just a few
short years ago. Finally, America’s true friends are few and far
between, and of those that remain, few individuals currently at
the helm will be around much longer.
All of this is occurring under George W. Bush’s watch. But is
there hope? On a totally different topic Michael J. Fox recently
commented “What’s wrong with having hope?” Nothing, but I
have to admit I’m praying a lot more these days.
After weeks like this past one, and my compulsion to lay it all
out there, I lose a ton of readers….at least I suspect I do. And I
have to reiterate for those who haven’t been with me too long
that I was a big-time supporter of the war in Iraq, but identified
almost immediately the shortcomings in our efforts and have had
a problem with our president ever since.
Today, I support Sen. McCain and his views more than ever. As
futile as it may appear to be, I just believe the United States must
make a final stand, starting in Baghdad. But if we aren’t willing
to make the commitment required, then we should get out, as
McCain has himself essentially said. Only in giving ourselves
one last shot at some semblance of victory can America then
truly look itself in the mirror and say we tried our best. I can
also guarantee I’m right on one matter. As of today President
Bush can not do the same.
—
And as the world turns in the Middle East, there was once a time
to engage Iran and Syria in serious discussions, but it’s too late.
Syria is a paper tiger, yet on the issue of Lebanon it has the
United States over a barrel. Iran, on the other hand, has real
teeth, and shortly nukes, and allowing them to obtain same spells
unmitigated disaster.
Former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Danny Ayalon told The
Jerusalem Post “I am absolutely certain that the U.S. will not
allow Iran to go nuclear, because this is a direct challenge to the
most vital interests of the U.S. in the region and beyond. There
is a deep understanding of this among American strategic
thinkers and political leaders in both parties. It’s true that the
focus right now is on a diplomatic solution and all avenues will
be exhausted there, but we should take seriously Bush and Rice’s
statements that all options are on the table, because they’re not
just posturing.”
But Robert Gates said this week U.S. “military action against
Iran would be an absolute last resort. I think that we have seen,
in Iraq, that once war is unleashed, it becomes unpredictable.”
At the same time Gates stated the obvious. “If Iran obtains
nuclear weapons no one can promise that it would not use them
against Israel.”
Yet after all these years, just what has the Bush White House
been able to accomplish on this front? Nothing. And so we have
Iranian President Ahmadinejad saying this week:
“I’m telling you in plain language that as of now, if you try,
whether in your propaganda or at international organizations, to
take steps against the rights of the Iranian nation, the Iranian
nation will consider it an act of hostility. And if you insist on
pursuing this path, (Iran) will reconsider its relations with you.”
He wasn’t addressing the United States. No, that was for
Europe’s consumption. And later he added “Thanks to the grace
of God and (the Iranian people’s) resistance, we are on the final
stage of the path to the nuclear peak. Not more than one step is
left to be taken. By the end of the year, we will organize a
celebration across the country to mark the stabilization of our
nuclear rights,” he said referring to the Iranian calendar that ends
March 20. [Los Angeles Times / AP] Arab experts assume
‘stabilization’ refers to the level of enriched uranium required for
making nuclear fuel, and weapons.
Mort Zuckerman / Editor-in-Chief U.S. News & World Report
“The Bush administration is correct when it asserts that only the
threat of serious military action and serious sanctions may deter
the Iranians. But American public opinion will not lightly accept
another war, given the calamity now playing out in Iraq and the
fear of being bogged down in another endless war of attrition.
‘We know how to be patient,’ the Iranians like to say. ‘We have
been weaving carpets for thousands of years.’
“There is no magic bullet here, of course, but we cannot just sit
back. We must find a way and the will to show the mullahs we
are deadly serious, or we will face the worst crisis in
international relations since the Cuban missile crisis.
“The West will have to decide what is more dangerous – to
attack the infrastructure of the Iranians sooner rather than later or
to deal with an Iranian nuclear capability after the fact. The
choices are not between good and bad but between bad and
worse – and the longer we delay, the more dire those bad and
worse choices will become.”
In Lebanon, the protests designed to bring down the government
of Prime Minister Siniora continue. Hizbullah leader Sheikh
Nasrallah vowed not to take up arms in a sectarian war, but in an
address to his supporters in Beirut on Friday added “If anyone
thought that we would be frightened away and just surrender and
go back home, they are gravely mistaken and are living in
illusions, illusions, illusions!”
Nasrallah then blasted Siniora for having the Lebanese Army
seize weapons being delivered to Hizbullah during the war with
Israel, and he once again blamed the U.S. for getting Israel to
destroy Hizbullah. For his part Siniora countered, “You are not
our Lord and your party is not our Lord.”
Rami Khouri / Daily Star
“For Hizbullah and its allies to drop the existing political
structures and opt for mass street demonstrations, after
participating in the government and Parliament for years, seems
perplexing to many, myself included. If this government is
illegitimate, as Hizbullah charges, why did Hizbullah join the
government in the first place? If the government’s illegitimacy
is mainly a function of its determination to proceed with the
mixed Lebanese-international tribunal that will try those accused
of killing the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others last
year, then we have the bigger and more vexing problem of
Lebanese-Syrian tensions. If so, this should be acknowledged
and resolved as an act of honest and courageous leadership,
rather than camouflaged as a perpetual charade that demeans the
self-respect of Lebanese and Syrians alike.
“It has always been both a weakness and a strength of Lebanese
and Arab politics that honesty and clarity are sacrificed for the
sake of an ambiguity that allows all sides to make compromises
and achieve a usually unstable consensus. In Lebanon, this has
always been referred to as the concept of ‘no victor, no
vanquished.’ Unfortunately, it also usually means no resolution
of fundamental political disagreements.”
As for Afghanistan, the outgoing commander of U.S. forces said
the fight is being undermined by a lack of NATO troops, as well
as the restrictions placed on the soldiers that prevent some from
being involved in actual combat.
“Could you have an alliance in which you have one group that is
always going into the toughest places and fighting and taking
casualties, and you have a second group that is in a different
category?” said Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry. “Over the next several
years, that is something that could be a challenge if it is not
addressed.” No kidding.
Regarding Israel, the Iraq Study Group believes the Israeli-
Palestinian issue must be resolved in order to see wider progress
in the region. British Prime Minister Blair is headed there for
discussions with all parties. I agree we must pull out all the
stops, but it has to be an even dialogue when it comes to the
Israelis. The White House made a huge tactical error in allowing
Israel to destroy Lebanon’s infrastructure this summer. President
Bush has not been an honest broker; the kind Middle Eastern
leaders are looking for.
Finally, some opinion from Garry Kasparov, in an op-ed for The
Wall Street Journal, including his take on Russia.
“The U.S. must refocus and recognize the failure of its post-9/11
foreign policy. Preemptive strikes and deposing dictators may or
may not have been a good plan, but at least it was a plan.
However, if you attack Iraq, the potential to go after Iran and
Syria must also be on the table. Instead, the U.S. finds itself
supervising a civil war while helplessly making concessions
elsewhere.
“This dire situation is a result of the only thing worse than a
failed strategy: the inability to recognize, or to admit, that a
strategy has failed. Since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003,
North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon. Iran is openly
boasting of its uranium enrichment program while pouring
money into Hizbullah and Hamas. A resurgent Taliban is on the
rise in Afghanistan. Nearly off the radar, Somalia is becoming
an al Qaeda haven. Worst of all is the answer to the question that
ties all of these burning fuses. No, we are not safer now than we
were before….
“Learning from our defeats is obvious, but too often we fail to
appreciate the reasons for our successes; we take them for
granted. The U.S. charged into Iraq without appreciating the far
greater difficulty of the postwar task there, and how it would be
complicated by the increasingly hostile global opinion of
America’s military adventures.
“America’s role as ‘bad cop’ has been a flop on the global stage.
Without the American presence in Iraq as a target and scapegoat,
Iraqis would be forced to make the hard political decisions they
are currently avoiding. We won’t know if Iraq can stand on its
own until the U.S. forces leave. Meanwhile, South Korea and
China refuse to take action on North Korea while accusing the
U.S. of provocative behavior. How quickly would their attitudes
change if the U.S. pulled its troops out of the Korean Peninsula?
Or if Japan – not to mention Taiwan – announced nuclear
weapon plans?
“From Caracas to Moscow to Pyongyang, everyone follows their
own agenda while ignoring President Bush and the UN. Here in
Russia, for example, Vladimir Putin gets Mr. Bush’s
endorsement for membership to the World Trade Organization
while selling advanced air defense missile systems to Iran and
imposing sanctions on Georgia, itself a WTO member. WTO
membership is not going to benefit ordinary Russians, but it will
provide more cover for Mr. Putin and his gang of oligarchs to
continue to loot the country and launder the money abroad with
no resistance from a distracted, discredited and enfeebled West.”
—
Wall Street
Friday’s employment report for November added further
ammunition for those in the Goldilocks / soft landing camps.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% but the economy
supposedly created 132,000 jobs and, more importantly, since
this number is subject to countless revisions, for the year the
figure is closer to 150,000 per month. Pretty darn good,
assuming these are “good paying jobs,” as our president is fond
of saying.
Earlier, a reading on the service economy was stronger than
expected and oil prices stabilized after a two-week surge so it
shouldn’t be a great surprise that stocks rallied back some after a
middling prior two weeks.
But it still all comes down to housing as to the future direction,
and on this score it remains pretty bleak. In fact while some
figures may reflect a bottoming process, I’m even more
convinced of an imminent second leg down.
For starters, you have the likes of Merrill Lynch chief economist
David Rosenberg pounding the table that the decline in housing
will lead to a significant drop in consumer spending.
[Rosenberg, in calling for only 1.7% growth in GDP in ’07, also
sees a 55% chance of an outright recession.]
Then you read the remarks of home builder Toll Brothers and its
CEO Robert Toll. While some viewed the comments following
the release of their latest earnings as a sign of stability, I’ll let
you be the judge.
“This quarter’s results were negatively impacted by our higher
than normal 585 cancellations. With these cancellations…we
could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these
homes.”
Toll went on to say it is renegotiating many of its optioned land
positions due to market conditions, something we discussed long
ago…. Follow the land!
But a few investors hung their hat on Toll Brothers’ thoughts that
some of its markets are stabilizing. Are they really? And as I’ve
argued, is consumer spending going to be strong in ’07 if we
have a year of flat home prices after a decade of rising ones? I
don’t think so, and Friday’s downbeat consumer confidence
forecast lent further credence to this viewpoint.
David Leonhardt of The New York Times had an interesting
comment on the housing market.
“The truth is that the official numbers on house prices – the last
refuge of soothing information about the real estate market on
the coasts – are deeply misleading. Depending on which set you
look at, you’ll see that prices have either continued to rise, albeit
modestly, or have fallen slightly over the last year. But the
statistics have a number of flaws, perhaps the biggest being that
they are based only on homes that have actually sold. The
numbers overlook all those homes that have been languishing on
the market for months, getting only offers that their owners have
not been willing to accept.”
And then there are the rapidly growing issues in the ‘subprime’
market; i.e., those who have no business buying a home in the
first place due to their current financial situation. Wall Street has
securitized some $435 billion in mortgage-backed bonds secured
by these loans (just this year) and the default and delinquency
rates are soaring, with one small subprime lender in California
going out of business this week as a result. [For those of you in
the New York area, Champion Mortgage is an example of a
subprime lender. “When the bank says no…Champion says
yesss!” Well some banks are saying no for a reason, sports fans.]
So let’s face it. The news on the delinquency front is only going
to get worse, and that’s without any kind of real economic
downturn. Imagine what would happen should pink slips begin
to go out in serious numbers?
But I’ve gone this entire segment without mentioning the Middle
East. As I noted last week, on one hand I’m amazed more
investors don’t get it. On the other, as I point out further below,
those running America’s corporations do, and the impact will be
felt in terms of reduced capital spending, sooner than later.
Finally, in his 12/4 column Barron’s Randall Forsyth had some
words from Bank of America chief market strategist Joseph
Quinlan concerning the dollar and global growth.
“We believe the world wants a weaker U.S. dollar about as much
as U.S. consumers want to pay more at the pump for gasoline.
Despite all the chatter about global imbalances and the need for a
correction in the greenback, the world, in our opinion, just isn’t
ready for a sizable, secular decline in the buck. Such a move
would undercut the primary source of growth of many nations:
exports.
“Over the past decade, the United States has emerged as the
market of first and last resort for the world, obviating the need
for domestic-led growth in many nations and spawning a global
addiction to exports.”
It could all unwind pretty quickly.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both rose 0.9% on the week, with
the Dow closing at 12307 and the S&P 1409. Nasdaq picked up
1.0% to finish at 2437.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.06% 2-yr. 4.68% 10-yr. 4.56% 30-yr. 4.66%
Bonds fell, yields rose, on the stronger than expected reading on
the service economy as well as the jobs report. Additionally, on
Friday Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, about to head to China
for key discussions, said he felt “very good” about the economy
while adding what every treasury secretary is trained to say these
days, “I believe very strongly that a strong dollar is in our
nation’s best interest.” The market, populated with idiots, eats
this stuff up for a few hours, which is normally long enough for a
little rally in equities.
In other words, with the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday,
the bond market is back to thinking a rate cut may not be in the
cards now until late spring at the earliest. I’ll go on record as
saying it happens in March as both the second leg down in
housing and a rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East
finally gets the Fed to take notice.
–Knowing that a weak dollar (which is what we’ve had for
months until Friday afternoon) is good for U.S. multi-nationals
and their earnings prospects, the Wall Street Journal had a good
table on the percent of revenue derived from overseas sources
among the Dow 30…in case you want to go this route. [This is
not a recommendation on my part.]
Intel…85.4% foreign revenue
Coca-Cola…71.1
Exxon Mobil…69.2
McDonald’s…66.0
Hewlett-Packard…64.8
–December 5 represented the 10th anniversary of Alan
Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” comment. In a speech that
day he offered:
“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly
escalated asset values which then become subject to unexpected
and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past
decade?”
The Dow Jones was at 6437 and on Dec. 6 the Tokyo Nikkei
index dropped 3.2% and the S&P 500 was down over 2% before
recovering to post a smaller loss. But while the S&P declined
2.2% for all of December, it rose 6.1% in January 1997 and
continued rallying until March 2000.
–A UN-sponsored study has found that the richest 2% of adults
in the world own more than half of all household wealth. I’m
frankly surprised it’s not higher. 90% of the wealth is
concentrated in North America, Europe, parts of Asia and
Australia.
–Shares in Pfizer plummeted on Monday after the world’s
largest drugmaker suddenly announced it was ending
development of a new cholesterol drug, torcetrapib, following
evidence a slew of patients died when it was used in combination
with Pfizer’s Lipitor. Over $800 million had been spent on
torcetrapib in the hope it would take over for Lipitor when its
patent expires in 2010; Lipitor being responsible for about half of
Pfizer’s annual profits.
But as if that wasn’t bad enough, the announcement to pull the
drug came just three days after Pfizer had told analysts how well
the torcetrapib trial was going, with CEO Jeffrey Kindler calling
it “one of the most important developments in medicine in our
generation.” So of course countless investors bought the shares
on that statement and then a few days later were taken to the
cleaners.
–Lehman Brothers is rewarding CEO Richard Fuld, Jr. with a
$186 million stock award over the next ten years to supplement
his already ample compensation. Last year the heads of
Goldman Sachs, Merrill and Bear Stearns, as well as Fuld,
picked up total cash and prizes of over $30 million apiece. Try
$35 mm to $40 mm for ’06.
–Bank of New York is taking over Mellon Financial in a $16.5
billion deal that creates the world’s largest securities servicing
company with $16.6 trillion in assets under custody….or about
3 light years, if you translated dollars into miles by my back of
the beer coaster calculation. [About 4,000 jobs will be
eliminated with the combination of the two banks.]
–According to a report by Bloomberg, insiders are selling $63 in
stock for every $1 they are buying these days. Per my bit last
week on the gloomy attitude of CEOs in New Jersey, the insider
selling not only speaks to a lack of confidence on the future
direction of the economy, but it also has to do with the attitude
on the overall geopolitical scene.
–And now….another edition of “CSI: Wall Street”:
Fannie Mae finally finished up a report on several years of
accounting shenanigans and said the losses on its derivatives
positions were only $7.9 billion…not the $10.8 billion originally
estimated. From an earnings standpoint, it only misstated by
$6.3 billion! [For the period 2001 through the first two quarters
of 2004.] Congratulations, guys, on a job done badly.
But what gives some of us a warm and fuzzy feeling is word that
the Office of Housing and Enterprise Oversight is close to filing
a lawsuit against former Fannie Mae executives Timothy
Howard and Franklin Raines. Unfortunately, while the two will
eventually be forced to give up some of their ill-gotten gains, this
is not a ‘criminal’ matter so they won’t be serving the jail time
they’re entitled to. At least it will show the government has
some backbone after all.
And then there is former UnitedHealth Group CEO William
McGuire. The Journal’s James Bandler and Charles Forelle had
a terrific story on Thursday addressing just what a lying SOB Dr.
McGuire truly was as he accumulated about $2 billion (with a
‘b’) in options awards, the bulk of which was magically
backdated to the lowest share price for a quarter.
Lastly, Jefferies & Co was fined $9.7 million by the SEC and
NASD for sanctioning the gift-giving of Kevin Quinn as he
courted five Fidelity traders, paying for private flights to Turks
and Caicos, Bermuda, strip club and golf outings, trips to
Wimbledon…you name it, Quinn and the Fidelity Five did it.
Even “dwarf tossing.” Well, seeing as the NASD’s gift-giving
limit is $100, it was pretty clear cut Quinn’s actions were illegal.
Quinn was barred from the securities industry for life.
–The merger between US Airways and Delta is very much in
doubt as Delta management refuses to go along with the terms,
insisting it can make it on its own. But since Delta is in
bankruptcy, it’s the creditors who ultimately have the final say as
they are the ones who decide on the fate of any post-bankruptcy
plan issued by Delta.
–Yahoo is in the midst of a big shakeup, with CFO Susan
Decker assuming more responsibilities. The company is having
to deal with slowing demand in advertising, especially from
automakers and financial-services industries. As I’ve been
writing, the Big Picture is even bleaker for online advertising in
general than the industry understands.
–Last week I wrote about Leonardo DiCaprio’s new movie
“Blood Diamond” and the impact it could have on the diamond
business. Well this week a slew of articles were written on the
topic, with far more to follow now that the picture has been
released. DeBeers is claiming it has long resolved the issue of
“conflict diamonds,” which in years past helped finance wars in
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Angola and Congo. DiCaprio himself,
though, is saying the issue isn’t as bad as it was in the 1990s.
“You just have to go into the stores and ask for a certificate, ask
for some sort of authentication that you aren’t getting a conflict
diamond.” [New York Post] As if Leo himself would know.
But as one activist put it, “The industry is spreading
misinformation…blood diamonds are not a problem of the past.”
I tend to agree with the skeptics.
–Taco Bell found the source of its serious E. coli outbreak…
green onions. In case you were wondering, it was back in 1962
that Booker T. & the MG’s had the #3 Billboard hit of the same
name…“Green Onions.”
–The Seminole tribe of Florida is acquiring the Hard Rock chain
of cafes and hotels for $965 million. So look for extensive use of
the Florida State and Atlanta Braves tomahawk chop and war
chant in a new advertising effort.…then again, maybe not.
–New York City’s Board of Health approved the first mandated
ban in the country on trans fats in cooking oils, to take effect in
the city’s restaurants in 18 months. Good. There is irrefutable
evidence trans fats contribute to heart disease and the fact the
vote was unanimous speaks volumes.
–And following up on my comments on fish farming and salmon
last week, on Monday the New York Times ran an editorial, a
passage of which follows.
“A wild salmon is a glorious thing, and every bit as delectable as
its cousins raised in fish farms that are, or are not, organic. But
to call a salmon organic is to demean it, since it comes from a
place where the word has no meaning. That is a little like calling
the ocean ‘natural.’ The trouble is, there is no U.S.D.A. ‘wild’
label, nor should there be, for that would represent some final
surrender to ourselves.
“There are really two answers to what is, after all, a problem of
terminology. The first is consumer education. There are few
shoppers out there who know as much as they need to know
about the fish they buy, how the fish are harvested or what effect
industrial fishing is having on the oceans. The other answer is to
continue to be strict and judicious with the U.S.D.A. ‘organic’
label, and use it as a tool to help distinguish between fish farming
that is done responsibly and fish farming that is not.
“Too often, consumers assume that fish farms are inherently
‘organic,’ perhaps merely because they are aquatic. Nothing
could be further from the truth. They can be as organic as the
finest pasture-raised organic pig farm or as inorganic as a hog
confinement operation. Let’s use the word ‘organic’ as a way to
distinguish between them, all the while hoping that there remain
wild salmon out in the oceans, beyond any of our categorizing.”
So I then get this note from reader Bill H. on the topic,
concerning a web site that specializes in truly wild salmon (as
well as other species)…conservationsalmon.com…and first, Bill,
I spent some time on this tasty site the other night and this
weekend I’ll place my first order. Thanks a million for passing it
along. This appears to be a superior alternative.
–I have had no reason whatsoever to check out MySpace.com,
until now. Being a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
Museum, I got this note that the Hall has a blog on MySpace, so
I thought ‘this could be good…and a source of material for
another column I write.’ But when I clicked on the site of one of
the ‘friends,’ it was as vile as anything I’ve seen on the web. At
the same time MySpace announced this week it was developing
technologies to help combat the use of its site by sexual
predators. All I can say is I feel for you parents out there.
–Lastly, we note the passing of a great American, trucking
industry giant Johnnie B. Hunt. Mr. Hunt was the son of a
sharecropper who dropped out of school in the sixth grade to
support his family. Later, after driving his own rig for nine
years, he decided to create J.B. Hunt Transport Services, which
today has 11,000 trucks and 47,000 trailers, all electronically
tracked from headquarters in Lowell, Arkansas. J.B. Hunt
employs 16,000 people. And as Steve Barnes wrote in The New
York Times, “Unfailingly polite, he stood more than six feet tall
and almost always wore a Stetson hat and cowboy boots. (Hunt)
dispensed $100 bills to the needy, explaining that his memories
of childhood as a poor sharecropper’s son were still vivid.” I
only wish I had had the opportunity to meet him.
Next week…Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke go to China.
Foreign Affairs
Russia: Kremlin authorities are not cooperating much with
Scotland Yard and the investigation on Russian soil into the
poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko. The Russians have not
agreed to extradite any suspects and will not help identify the
source of the polonium-210. Meanwhile, intelligence services in
Britain are convinced the poisoning was authorized by the
Russian Federal Security Service (formerly the KGB, now FSB).
As the London Times pointed out, “The judgment by British
intelligence has been strengthened by the knowledge that the
FSB has legislative approval for eliminating terrorists and
enemies of the state abroad, after the passing of a controversial
anti-terrorism law in the summer.”
Following are some comments.
Charles Krauthammer / Op-Ed Washington Post
“Do you think Anna Politkovskaya, the journalist who was
investigating the war in Chechnya, was shot dead in her elevator
by rogue elements? What about Viktor Yushchenko, the
presidential candidate in Ukraine and eventual winner, poisoned
with dioxin during the campaign, leaving him alive but
disfigured? Ultranationalist Russians?
“Opponents of Putin have been falling like flies. Some jailed,
some exiled, some killed. True, Litvinenko’s murder will never
be traced directly to Putin, no matter how dogged the British
police investigation. State-sponsored assassinations are almost
never traceable to the source. Too many cutouts. Too many
layers of protection between the don and the hit man.
“Moreover, Russia has a long and distinguished history of state-
sponsored assassination, of which the ice-pick murder of Leon
Trotsky was but the most notorious. Does anyone believe that
Pope John Paul II, then shaking the foundations of the Soviet
empire, was shot by a crazed Turk acting on behalf of only
Bulgaria?….
“Some say that the Litvinenko murder was so obvious, so bold,
so messy – five airplanes contaminated, 30,000 people alerted,
dozens of places in London radioactive – that it could not
possibly have been the KGB.
“But that’s the beauty of it. Do it obvious, do it brazen, and
count on those too-clever-by-half Westerners to find that
exonerating….
“The other reason for making it obvious and brazen is to send a
message. This is a warning to all the future Litvinenkos of what
awaits them if they continue to go after the Russian government.
They’ll get you even in London, where there is the rule of law.
And they’ll get you even if it makes negative headlines for a
month….
“The prosecution rests. We await definitive confirmation in
Putin’s memoirs. Working title: ‘If I Did It.’”
Masha Lipman / Op-Ed Washington Post
“A common argument has it that President Vladimir Putin may
have cracked down on freedoms and democracy and
recentralized power in the Kremlin, but at least he has ensured
order and stability. In fact, Putin may have ‘stabilized’ public
politics, but there’s no more law or order about his regime than
there was in Boris Yeltsin’s ‘chaotic’ Russia.
“The political scene has been fully cleared of genuine
competition, and the executive and legislative branches filled
with loyalists who need not worry about public accountability.
As a result, the members of this greedy bureaucracy have
become a privileged circle in which they seek to amass power,
which in Russia is closely linked to property and wealth. In the
process, they force those with less clout to sell their lucrative
properties, as happened not long ago with a Urals titanium
factory. If the owner doesn’t accept the deal, he can expect the
tax police to ‘discover’ huge instances of evasion, the
environmental agency to reveal improper use of his lands or the
prosecutor’s office to begin proceedings against him. All these
government agencies would be working on behalf of the
powerful buyer. This is hardly law and order.
“Meanwhile, the regime’s loyalists are themselves engaged in a
fierce struggle, especially as the crucial 2007-08 elections draw
near. All are wondering what the power shifts that Putin has in
mind will mean for them personally. Thus, disputes among them
grow ever more intense and vicious, creating an atmosphere of
rampant corruption and crime. Court rulings are commonly
twisted as a result of bribery or pressure from the executive.
Contract killings are used to settle scores with rivals and
adversaries.
“Aside from the recent high-profile assassinations, there have
been the killings, in a period of less than three months, of three
bankers, one of them deputy chairman of the central bank. All
were slain by contract murderers. A contender for the mayoralty
in a Far Eastern town was killed at the height of the election
campaign. A pro-Moscow Chechen commander was shot by a
group of Chechen law enforcers in broad daylight in the middle
of Moscow – in front of passersby and a group of Moscow
militiamen who, according to newspaper reports, watched from
across the street. None of the perpetrators was arrested.
“Real competitive politics, if they were ever allowed, might be a
threat to the ruling elite. Fierce infighting within the regime is a
threat to the entire nation and its future.”
Anne Applebaum / Op-Ed Washington Post
“As the investigation progresses, I’m sure many more
wonderfully shady characters will emerge, along with many
theories about who was trying to discredit whom. But though
it’s doubtful that he ever gave an actual order to an actual thug,
Putin is certainly responsible for Litvinenko’s death in this
deeper sense: He presides over this web of old intelligence
operatives, indeed, sits at its center. And he approves of their
methods.
“One of his first acts as prime minister in 1999 was the unveiling
of a plaque to Yuri Andropov, the former KGB boss best known
for his harsh treatment of dissidents. Last year Russians built a
statue to Andropov. No one should have been surprised that the
former KGB’s harassment of modern ‘dissidents’ grew harsher
with every passing year – or that it culminated in this strange
murder.
“That we were surprised, are surprised, is both tragic and ironic:
After all, for the better part of a decade now, we’ve been
desperately looking for weapons of mass destruction and for the
strange new enemies, the Islamic radicals who might be planning
to use them. And now we’ve discovered that there really is
nuclear material for sale and that it really is being used, in the
West, to kill people. And that the killers aren’t strange, or new,
or even Islamic.”
North Korea: Evidently the United States has offered the most
specific package of economic assistance to date if North Korea
will give up its nuclear weapons. But Pyongyang would have to
begin dismantling some of the key equipment used in the process
before the White House would return to negotiations. That said,
talks may restart in a week or so.
Turkey: Out of nowhere, Ankara said it would open a port and an
airport to traffic from Cyprus in a last-minute attempt to avert a
partial shutdown of talks into its candidacy for European Union
membership. On Monday, EU ambassadors and foreign
ministers will decide on the next step, the issue of Cyprus long
being a key stumbling block. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry,
however, hinted it sought the end of economic isolation of the
self-proclaimed Turkish Cypriots in northern Cyprus. [Cyprus
has been divided since 1974 following a Turkish invasion in
response to a coup by Greek Cypriot militants.]
For its part, Greek Cyprus, which was granted EU membership
in 2004, said it will take a harder line if some EU member states
use Turkey’s move to allay some of the sanctions, because it
comes with conditions Greek Cypriots can’s accept. It’s a
confusing issue, to say the least.
Venezuela: Hugo Chavez won another six years by taking 61%
of the vote in the presidential election. Chavez proclaimed
“Long live the socialist revolution!” and has refused to meet with
U.S. representatives.
On the energy front, Chavez has been in discussions with his
Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Lula da Silva, on a proposed South
American mega-pipeline that in Chavez’s words “would
strengthen the energy matrix of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay,
Uruguay and all of South America.”
Here’s the deal. The natural gas pipeline would stretch 5,600
miles and cost at least $20 billion, plus it would cut through the
Amazon. Oh yeah, that’s a bright move. Just say goodbye to the
entire continent’s ecosystem if this project goes through.
Pakistan: President Musharraf reiterated he was willing to give
up claim to all of Kashmir if India agrees to do the same, thus
making Kashmir a self-governing entity. But most of Kashmir is
Muslim and Islamic hardliners want Pakistan to retain its claim,
while at the same time India says Pakistan must clamp down on
Islamic militants fighting Indian rule in Kashmir.
Britain: Prime Minister Blair is proposing that the nation’s
nuclear warheads be cut in half to 100, but that a new generation
of submarines be employed as it would be “unwise and
dangerous” to forego the nuclear option entirely with emerging
threats from the likes of North Korea and Iran.
Fiji: I can’t say I’ve given the latest military coup here much
thought (nor am I losing sleep over it), but it is kind of
interesting that with Fiji in its backyard, both Australia and New
Zealand opted not to take action in the way of supporting the
democratically elected government on the island.
Random Musings
–We note the passing of Jeane Kirkpatrick, one of the leaders
of the Reagan Revolution on the foreign policy front. What a
tough dame she was…and us conservatives loved her for it.
–I can’t get all riled up about the exit of John Bolton. Just
another example of President Bush talking tough out of one side
of his mouth, and then aimlessly cutting brush out of the other.
–Boy, that House ethics panel is a heroic bunch. It determined
no action needed to be taken against its members in the Mark
Foley scandal, even though it appears, for starters, that Dennis
Hastert’s office knew about the inappropriate behavior for years.
–I’m glancing through the latest BusinessWeek and there’s a big
advertising spread on doing business in Saudi Arabia. So every
time I see the Kingdom promote itself, all I can think of is the
fact that as a non-Muslim I can’t go to Mecca; but Muslims can
visit all of Christianity’s holiest sites, no questions asked.
–With Congress out of session for the rest of the year, consider
the fact it worked all of 103 days in 2006. So now incoming
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has warned members they
will have to be prepared to work from Monday p.m. until 2 p.m.
on Friday. And the House can say goodbye to extended
holidays. We’ll see how long Hoyer is actually able to
implement this.
[In typical House and Senate fashion, a slew of legislation was
passed late last night and I’ll address it all next time.]
–In a nationwide survey conducted by Marist College, 47% of
registered voters said they would definitely not consider voting
for Hillary Clinton. That’s a seemingly insurmountable hurdle.
But among Democrats, Clinton still polls 33% to John Edwards’
14% (surprising strength to me), with Al Gore at 13% and
Barack Obama 12%. On the GOP side, McCain and Giuliani are
basically tied. I still see Obama flaming out, while I’m ready to
send my first campaign contribution to McCain.
–I forgot to congratulate Afghans last week for their record
opium crop. That’s terrific! Might as well go for a full 100% of
the heroin market as opposed to the current 90%.
–According to a report by Denise Grady of the International
Herald Tribune, “The Ebola virus has killed from 3,500 to 5,500
gorillas in one region of the Congo Republic since 2002, and its
continued spread, along with illegal hunting, could wipe out the
species.” It’s sad…but researchers at the Max Planck Institute
have been developing vaccines that work on animals in the labs,
including monkeys, so there may be some hope before it’s too
late. Unfortunately, there are all kinds of bureaucratic
impediments to a massive vaccination effort, including with
various conservation groups, donors and governments.
“Precisely how gorillas contract the disease is a mystery.
Scientists assume they must catch it, somehow, from another
animal that acts as a natural reservoir host and carries the virus
without being harmed by it. Fruit-eating bats are suspected.”
–A European research group has concluded the Arctic Ocean’s
entire ice field could melt by 2080. Oceanfront property in
Atlanta!
–All the more reason to explore space, as in NASA’s latest plans
to build a self-sustaining settlement on the moon that would then
be used as a launching pad to Mars. Geezuz, we need something
exciting to get behind. Life on Earth kind of sucks these days.
–But now we also hear there is “compelling” evidence that water
has been flowing recently on the surface of Mars. As I told my
brother, what Earth needs is a Martian invasion to unite our
planet. Then we could round up the Martian leaders and sprinkle
polonium-210 on their food. But Harry had a better suggestion.
Just take them to Taco Bell! It would be a novelty for them and
they wouldn’t suspect anything.
–Well the news wasn’t all bad this week. The remains of St.
Paul, at least his sarcophagus, are closer to seeing the light of day
after being under piles of dirt for centuries. Then again, he can’t
be too happy over what has transpired the last two thousand
years. And in glancing through my “Eerdmans Dictionary of the
Bible,” I see early Christians spoke of The Apocalypse of Paul;
“Paul’s account of a man (probably himself) who had journeyed
to the third heaven. (Paul) sees the contrasting deaths of
righteous persons and sinners, visits paradise and the city of
Christ, meets important persons of faith like Abraham, Moses,
and Mary, and tours hell.”
Then again, maybe the Vatican should rethink their plans and let
St. Paul be.
–Alas, there was a brilliant example of the human spirit in of all
places Beirut last Sunday. Postponed by just a week following
the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, the Beirut International
Marathon was conducted, with 20,000 runners participating even
as backers of Hizbullah and other pro-Syrian elements continued
their massive protest designed to topple the Siniora government.
And so we note the efforts of the president of the Beirut
Marathon Association, Mary Khalil, who told the Daily Star she
felt “on top of the world….For one day, sports did what the
government can’t – sports united us.”
“Since the marathon’s launch I carried mixed feelings,” said
Khalil. “I was scared but I kept pushing the Lebanese to come
and participate.” That they did. If civil war is somehow averted,
give Mary Khalil the Nobel Peace Prize.
–Lastly, on Thursday about 450 veterans were at Pearl Harbor
for what is probably the last big reunion of survivors. Former
NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw addressed the crowd.
“America in an instant became the land of the indivisible. There
are so many lessons from that time for our time, none greater
than the idea of one nation greater than the sum of its parts.”
While growing up, each Pearl Harbor remembrance was a history
lesson; a vitally important one. But as in the case of Normandy
and D-Day, future generations just won’t understand what most
of us have; that one must not only stay vigilant but also our
country needs great leaders for the times that try men’s souls.
On Dec. 26, 1941, Winston Churchill addressed Congress.
“What kind of people do they think we are? Is it possible that
they do not realize that we shall never cease to persevere against
them until they have been taught a lesson which they and the
world will never forget?”
Over the coming year we are about to find out just what kind of
people today’s Americans truly are.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $628
Oil, $62.03
Returns for the week 12/4-12/8
Dow Jones +0.9% [12307]
S&P 500 +0.9% [1409]
S&P MidCap +0.8%
Russell 2000 +1.5%
Nasdaq +1.0% [2437]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-12/8/06
Dow Jones +14.8%
S&P 500 +12.9%
S&P MidCap +10.6%
Russell 2000 +17.7%
Nasdaq +10.5%
Bulls 59.8
Bears 23.9 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
