For the week 4/28-5/2

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,358

Let’s begin with the facts on the stock market and President Trump’s first 100 days+….

For the first 100 days, the Dow Jones lost 6.8%, the S&P 500 7.3% and Nasdaq 11.0%, the worst start since the first 100 days of Richard Nixon’s second term for the first two.

For the month of April, the Dow lost 3.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, but Nasdaq gained 0.9%.  Hardly the catastrophe it looked like on April 21st.

And in fact, through today, since the April 21 low, the S&P 500 is up a spectacular 10.2%, Nasdaq 13.3%.

Since the low on April 8, before the reprieve on tariffs announced the following day under pressure from some of Trump’s economic advisers as the bond market was puking all over itself, the S&P is up 14.1%, Nasdaq 17.8%.  As SNL’s Emily Litella would have said, “Never mind….”

Wednesday morning, prior to the market opening, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th.  Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.  Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’  This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other.  BE PATIENT!!!”

So it’s been a helluva Biden Rally, boys and girls!!!

Meanwhile, in response to President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods and the nation’s retaliatory 125% rate on the U.S., there has been a dramatic increase in canceled sailings by Chinese vessel to U.S. ports, with China to U.S. vessel traffic down 44% compared to a year earlier, according to the Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker.

The impact of canceled Chinese orders will be felt across the industry – starting with farms forced to shutter, then slamming the longshoremen out of work from canceled sailings, then the truck drivers who transport goods from the ports, according to Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition.

“It’s already happening,” Friedmann said.  “Unlike toys and televisions, so forth, it’s pretty dramatic.  If nobody’s buying, we may harvest it because you got to get it off the trees, like cherries and fruit – but what do you do with it if you can’t sell it?”

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok said the consequences of the tariffs will be “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods.”  Fewer goods reaching American shores will mean higher prices on the goods that are in stores – as well as less work for dockworkers and truck drivers, Slok adds, echoing Peter Friedmann.  Slok sees “significant” layoffs in trucking, logistics and retail as soon as May…ergo, in the coming weeks.

Will this scenario really come to pass?  We’ll see, but it would appear the handwriting is on the wall.

You may have noticed over the years that I write little about consumer confidence data, because it seldom matches up with the hard data.  But I’ve had to mention it a lot the past few months because it’s been getting headlines.  This week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index hit a 5-year low, but when looking at expectations six months from now, the figure was the lowest since 2011.

Citadel founder Ken Griffin, the mega hedge fund billionaire, has been speaking a lot recently, and when it comes to the Big Picture and the first 100 days, he told Stanford’s Graduate School of Business last Friday that tariffs won’t bring back American manufacturing jobs the way that the president anticipates and the country should play to its strengths instead.

“He (Trump) dreams of giving people their dignity back, and I have to applaud him for having that dream,” Griffin said.  “And to be clear, with an unemployment rate of 4%, America has moved on.”

But Griffin argued the U.S. should try to play to its strengths, such as creating intellectual property and content, rather than bringing back jobs in factories that are rapidly automating their production anyway.

“These are jobs that pay a stunning amount of money as compared to working in a factory, making zippers or making home appliances or making flat-screen TVs,” he said.

Griffin said that while at a recent conference in Beijing, he had spoken with a senior Chinese government official who questioned why U.S. trade policy would be to foster low-paying factory jobs and become more like China, instead of being the world power that China is trying to emulate.

So back to the beginning, Trump blinked, markets rallied, and the sound of footsteps on the roof is of people running around, trying to find trade deals to be cut (or maybe that’s Santa’s reindeer, as Santa hurriedly delivers what he has in stock because he’ll claim he was fogged in on Christmas Eve, with nothing to deliver save for a few Barbie dolls…Rudolph having gone on to fame and fortune with Clarice…but I digress…)

What now?  It’s not back to normal…far from it.  The damage has been done.  The delayed impacts/effects of tariffs hang over the economy, while the American “brand,” our reputation, is shattered.  Our adversaries have benefited.

—

In an interview with The Atlantic, President Trump said: “The first time, I had two things to do – run the country and survive; I had all these crooked guys.  And the second time, I run the country and the world.”

On his crumbling poll numbers, detailed in the usual spot below, President Trump responded early Monday on Truth Social in two posts:

“We don’t have a Free and Fair ‘Press’ in the Country anymore.  We have a Press that writes BAD STORIES, and CHEATS, BIG, ON POLLS. IT IS COMPROMISED AND CORRUPT. SAD!”

“Great Pollster John McLaughlin, one of the most highly respected in the industry, has just stated that The Failing New York Times Poll, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll, about a person named DONALD J. TRUMP, ME, are FAKE POLLS FROM FAKE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS.  The New York Times has only 37% Trump 2024 voters, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll has only 34% Trump Voters*, unheard of numbers unless looking for a negative result, which they are. These people should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD, and add in the FoxNews Pollster while you’re at it.  They are Negative Criminals who apologize to their subscribers and readers after I WIN ELECTIONS BIG, much bigger than their polls showed I would win, loose (sic) a lot of credibility, and then go on cheating and lying for the next cycle, only worse. They suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and there is nothing that anyone, or anything, can do about it. THEY ARE SICK, almost only write negative stories about me no matter how well I am doing (99.9% at the Border, BEST NUMER EVER!), AND ARE TRULY THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! I wish them well, but will continue to fight to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

*Note to Trump: This is totally accurate.  It’s how polling is done. 

To wit…a January 2025 Gallup release put it thusly:

“Americans’ political preferences remained closely divided in 2024, with the Republican Party having a slight edge for the third consecutive year.  Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who learned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.”

However, when initially asked their political party identification, “Americans were most likely to identify as independents (43%), with 28% saying they were Democrats and 28% Republicans. Pluralities of at least 39% of Americans have identified as political independents each year since 2011, with the latest figure tying the record high, previously registered in 2014 and 2023.”

A 2024 Pew Research Center survey had 32% identifying as Republican, 33% Democrat.  Independents ‘or something else’ were 35%.

Reminder…President Trump won the popular vote against Kamala Harris last November, 49.8% to 48.3%.

Personally, I remain a registered Republican.  But I have not voted for the Republican at the top of the ticket the last three elections.  In the Pew poll, I’d still be part of the 32%.

Trump will shift his focus to Capitol Hill the next 100 days, where much of his agenda hinges on the ability of Republicans to deliver big wins while operating with slim margins in both the House and Senate.

GOP lawmakers are trying to navigate a legislative obstacle course that will divide their ranks with debates about federal support for Medicaid and how to pass the president’s sprawling agenda on tax cuts, border funding and more while also cutting spending.

“We’re working on the big, beautiful bill, the reconciliation bill,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said after meeting with Trump on Monday.  “Now is game time as the big developments will be coming together.  We’re excited about that.  I think it’s going to be a great piece of legislation.”

Executive orders can be erased by the president’s successor.  What the president enacts with Congress this summer could have a far more lasting impact.

Tuesday, at a rally outside Detroit, Michigan, to mark his 100th day in office, Trump sought to rebuild support for his economic agenda – framing the tariffs as a necessary step to offset the cost of his upcoming tax legislation.

The bill is an extension of his 2017 tax cuts, but with additional items including eliminating the tax on tipped wages, Social Security and overtime pay.  He warned about possible Republican detractors, saying they should be challenged if they fail to support his agenda.

“Remember who those grandstanders are and vote them the hell out of office,” Trump said.

Meanwhile, President Trump renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the rally.

“Inflation is basically down and interest rates came down despite the fact that I have a Fed person who’s not really doing a good job,” Trump said.

“You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed,” Trump continued.  “You’re supposed to let him do his own thing – but I know much more than he does about interest rates.”

Trump argued that his sweeping tariff program would inspire a wave of economic growth and lure manufacturers back to the U.S.  Hours before the rally, the president signed directives easing some of his planned tariffs – including a two-year reduction in 25% auto parts levies for components used in cars and trucks finished in the U.S.

The president cast the move as “a little flexibility” designed to offer companies time to move their manufacturing back – while issuing a dire warning to automakers who might still look to import parts.

“We gave them a little bit of time before we slaughter them,” Trump said.

Carmakers will be able to qualify for tariff relief for a proportion of the cost of their imported components, though those benefits will be phased out over the two-year period.

The White House then released its proposed budget Friday, with far-reaching cuts to federal environmental, renewable energy, education and foreign-aid programs in a budget blueprint that slashes nondefense discretionary spending by more than $160 billion. Defense spending would see a substantial increase, 13%.

But this is a symbolic wish list that Congress will spend months debating on which elements of the proposed plan should be turned into law.

—Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Presidential second terms are rarely successful, and on the evidence of his first 100 days Donald Trump’s won’t be different. The President needs a major reset if he wants to rescue his final years from the economic and foreign-policy shocks he has unleashed.

“There’s no denying his energy or ambition.  Mr. Trump is pressing ahead on multiple fronts, and he has had some success.  His expansion of U.S. energy production is proceeding well and is much needed after the Biden war on fossil fuels.  He has ended the border crisis in short order.

“He is also rolling back federal assaults on mainstream American values – such as by policing racial favoritism.  Mr. Trump was elected to counter the excesses of the left on climate, culture and censorship, and he is doing it.

“On other priorities, the execution hasn’t matched the promises. That would seem to apply to DOGE, which we’ve supported but has been so frenetic it isn’t clear what it is achieving. Easy targets like USAID make for symbolic victories but no fundamental change in the growth of government.  The Trump budget will offer more reform proposals, if the White House can get them through Congress.  He badly needs a pro-growth tax bill.

“Even on popular causes, one problem has been needless excess.  Harvard and other universities need to change, but trying to dictate their curriculum and faculty choices is an intrusion on free speech and risks defeat in court.  His deportation of criminals is worthwhile, but denying due process and toying with the courts will sour the effort. The White House motto seems to be that if something is worth doing, it’s worth doing too much.

“That’s especially true on tariffs, which could sink his Presidency.  Mr. Trump was elected to control inflation and raise real incomes, but tariffs do the opposite.  They guarantee at least a one-time increase in prices on imported goods that will flow through the economy.  They portend shortages for consumers, and for businesses that source goods and components from abroad….

“It’s a mistake to think the tariff damage is only domestic. The willy-nilly assault on friends and foes has shaken global confidence in U.S. reliability.  Ken Griffin, the investor and major donor to Mr. Trump, summed up last week as a self-inflicted blow to the American brand.  The U.S. is needlessly ceding global economic leadership.

“China is already taking advantage by courting U.S. allies as a more dependable giant market….

“There are signs Mr. Trump is finally recognizing some of the tariff risks, as he now talks of doing some 200 trade deals… But (he) remains a long way from making such a pivot, and those trade deals won’t be easy to strike.

“Mr. Trump’s second-term foreign policy so far is a work in progress….

“The main cause for alarm is his one-sided pursuit of peace in Ukraine. Until this weekend he had said scarcely a discouraging word about Vladimir Putin while squeezing Ukraine to make concessions that could doom it to future marauding….

“Voters re-elected Mr. Trump in part because they remembered fondly his first-term economy.  But that success owed mainly to his pursuit of conventional GOP priorities like tax reform and deregulation.  This term he is indulging his trade and foreign-policy obsessions, and the early results are negative.  He’ll fail unless he heeds the warnings.”

Rich Lowry / New York Post

“The vibe around President Trump’s second term has shifted, and it’s all his doing.

“The president entered office with a bit of a wind at his back.  His polling was better than the first time around, protesters weren’t in the streets, and federal investigators weren’t after him.

“The GOP was more united than in 2016 and business leaders wanted to work with him, while the culture was generally heading in an anti-woke direction.

“Now, though, his polling is in a marked decline….

“Usually, presidencies are rocked by events – a hostage crisis, a war gone wrong, uncontrolled inflation.

“Here, nothing was done to Trump; he did it to himself.  He was the event.

“This wasn’t him getting denied, either by more cautious advisers or a recalcitrant Congress.  He hasn’t been sabotaged by the Deep State.

“No, he got exactly what he wanted, with a couple strokes of his pen.

“The problem is that Trump didn’t run in 2024 on economic dislocation, business uncertainty, higher prices or pain for manufacturers.

“People didn’t want any of these things and, understandably, don’t like them….

“Listening to him during the campaign and his Inaugural Address, you’d have thought the promised Golden Age started on Day 1.

“Instead, his message has shifted to the notion that the sunny uplands are off somewhere in the future, after we work through all the gut-wrenching turmoil.

“In other words, the Golden Age is coming, but, in the meantime, stock up on toilet paper.”

—

On the Trade Front, President Trump posted on Truth Social over the weekend:

“When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year. Also, massive numbers of jobs are already being created, with new plants and factories currently being built or planned.  It will be a BONANZA FOR AMERICA!!!  THE EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS HAPPENING!!!!”

Yet, while we were supposed to bring in $tens of billions in tariffs, $100s of billions, according to the president, now he’s backtracking, as the administration laid out a roadmap to streamline tariff talks.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office talked of broad categories for negotiation: tariffs and quotas; non-tariff barriers to trade, such as regulations on U.S. goods; digital trade; rules of origin for products; and economic security and other commercial issues, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal.

The U.S. is looking to negotiate within the new framework with about 18 major trading partners on a rolling basis over the next two months.

But Mexico and Canada won’t be among the 18, because the reciprocal tariff order didn’t apply to them.  The European Union, a 27-nation bloc, is still awaiting specific demands from the administration.  They aren’t going to negotiate changes to its value-added tax system or agricultural subsides, the EU has already said.  The UK isn’t changing its food or auto safety standards.  And China’s furious and on a different track.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that it was “up to China” to deescalate tensions.  President Trump continued to sow confusion by claiming that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi, which Beijing denied.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said Monday: “I would like to reiterate that China and the U.S. have not engaged in consultations or negotiations regarding tariff issues.”

China’s Communist Party on Tuesday released a bombastic propaganda video in which it vowed “never to kneel down” in Trump’s tariff war.

Beijing also tried to coax the rest of the world to stand with it against the U.S.

The dramatic clip – blasted out by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on X and amplified throughout Chinese social media – accused the Trump administration of bullying tactics and insisted China would not negotiate after Trump hit Chinese exports with massive tariffs.

“China won’t back down so the voices of the weak will be heard,” an English voice-over declared in the video.  “When the rest of the world stands together in solidarity, the U.S. is just a small stranded boat.

“Someone has to step forward, torch in hand, to shatter the fog and illuminate the path ahead.”

“History has proven compromise won’t earn you mercy – kneeling only invites more bullying,” the video continued.  “For China, for the world, we must rise and fight on.”

Beijing has pledged support for tariff-hit exporters.  Since the U.S. raised tariffs on China to 145% in April, cargo shipments have dropped dramatically, with estimates suggesting a 60% decline, per Bloomberg.

By mid-May, businesses will need to restock, and retailers like Walmart and Target have warned of empty shelves and rising prices. 

Tuesday, Trump said China deserved the steep tariffs he imposed on their exports and predicted Beijing could find a way to reduce their impact on American consumers.

“You don’t know whether or not China’s going to eat it.  China probably will eat those tariffs,” Trump said in an interview with ABC News.  “China was making $1 trillion dollars a year.  They were ripping us off like nobody has ever ripped us off. Almost every country in the world was ripping us off. They’re not doing that anymore.”

Trump said he did not believe hard times were ahead for U.S. consumers, while acknowledging that his 145% tariffs on many Chinese goods amounted to a near-embargo.

“That’s good,” he said.  “They deserve it.”

Wednesday, in a town hall, NewsNation host Bill O’Reilly asked Trump if he agreed that his tariff proposals had a perception problem. “But I’m an honest guy, and we have to save the country.”

Trump went on to agree there was a significant political risk to his efforts, and that they could result in Republicans losing control of the House in the midterm elections if those perceptions don’t change – but he said he remained determined to push on.

“I just think that I’ll be able to convince people how good this is,” Trump said.

And then today, China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement that it had noted senior U.S. officials repeatedly expressing their willing to talk to Beijing about tariffs and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” toward China.

“The U.S. has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added.  “China is currently evaluating this.”

This is the first sign since Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin between the two sides.

This afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported “Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.”

But still, there are no formal talks, yet the market used it as an excuse to rally further.

—

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party won Monday’s national election, taking 169 seats in parliament, 172 needed for a majority.  The Liberals polled at 43.5% in the multiparty race, while the Conservatives were at 41.4%, and 144 seats.

Bloc Quebecois, the party that only puts up candidates in Quebec province, garnered 23 seats, the New Democrats 7, and the Greens 1.

It was the first time since 1930 that the Liberals and Conservatives won more than 40% of the popular vote, as the smaller left-of-center parties saw their support plummet.

President Trump, in a Truth Social post, urged Canadians heading to the polls:

“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TRAFIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America.”

In response, Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre wrote on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.”  He added, “we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

“Canada is not America,” Carney said Sunday, adding that Trump “has betrayed Canada and he has ruptured the global economy.”

Poilievre ended up not retaining his own seat.

Late Saturday night, the candidates had to deal with a real tragedy in Vancouver, when a man known to local law enforcement plowed into a crowd at a Filipino festival, killing at least 11 people.

After the suspect’s vehicle came to a halt, he was held down by partygoers until police arrived.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

We had three major economic indicators to look at this week, a first look at GDP for the first quarter, the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), and April’s jobs report.

Regarding the first one, GDP, the economy contracted in the first three months of the year, -0.3%, the steepest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

It largely had to do with net exports, the difference between imports and exports, a large drag on growth in the quarter, stripping 4.83 percentage points from headline GDP.  Imports increased at a 41.3% pace in the first quarter as businesses tried to get ahead of increased tariffs in the current, second quarter.  This was offset by increases in private investment and equipment, as explained below.

Bottom line, it’s all going to take some time to shake out, before we figure out where we really are.

[The Atlanta Fed’s last look at first-quarter GDP was -2.7%, the alternative model forecast -1.5%, so far gloomier than the eventual figure.]

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The first-quarter decline in the U.S. economy reported Wednesday may not portend a recession, but it was worse than most economists expected.  The main story we see throughout the data is that President Trump’s tariffs are holding growth hostage.

“Gross domestic product shrank 0.3% in the first estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and most of the damage came from soaring imports.  Imported goods and services rose 41.3% in the quarter – goods alone by 50.9% – as businesses rushed to get ahead of Mr. Trump’s various border taxes.  Imports subtracted a startling 5.03% from GDP.

“This shows how tariffs distorted the data and make it hard to judge if the first quarter is a trend or an outlier. The same goes for the 21.9% spike in first-quarter private investment, which would normally be a good omen for future growth.  But the 22.5% increase in equipment purchases suggests this is another case of companies front-running the tariffs. Buy now before prices rise in the components they need to stay in business.

“Private domestic investment contributed 3.6% to GDP, while rising inventories contributed 2.25%.  That offset the impact of soaring imports and a modest decline in federal government spending.  The latter also subtracts from GDP, but the Biden blowout in government spending had boosted growth in unsustainable fashion.

“The analytical challenge is figuring out whether and how much all of this will continue the rest of the year.  Investors didn’t take the GDP news well after some recent optimism that Mr. Trump is easing his tariff assault. Perhaps that’s because the tumult over tariffs and the uncertainty they’re causing seem to have bled into consumer spending.

“Personal consumption rose only 1.8% in the quarter and contributed a meager 1.21% to GDP.  This fits with the various recent signals about declining consumer confidence.  If the economy tips into recession this year, consumers closing their checkbooks will be one reason.

“The portents of worse to come are increasing, including a 35% decline expected next week in shipments coming into the port of Los Angeles.  China’s export orders plunged in April, which may have Mr. Trump cheering, but he may feel differently when product shortages hit retail shelves….

“Is all of this what Mr. Trump had in mind when he predicted a ‘little disturbance’ from tariffs? Depends on how you define ‘little.’  At least in private, Mr. Trump seems to be acknowledging the harm as he walks back his original tariff ambition.  But his exceptions and carve-outs are partial and selective, which brings their own uncertainty.  His promise of big new trade deals may also take longer than he is advertising.

“The best response to the warning from the first-quarter GDP decline would be for Mr. Trump to call the whole tariff thing off. Short of that, settle for 10% across the board and call it a day.  If that’s too much of a come-down, Republicans will need to pass a pro-growth tax cut and accelerate their deregulatory push as their best chance to liberate the economy from its tariff kidnapping.”

On the PCE front, prices for March were basically in line with expectations, with the figure unchanged versus February, and up 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% the month prior.  On the core rate, it, too, was unchanged in March and up 2.6% Y/Y, which was down from 2.8% in February.

Personal income in March rose 05% and consumption 0.7%, both above forecasts, but undoubtedly more frontrunning in the latter.

Friday, we then had the April jobs report and it was good…177,000, far ahead of consensus of 130,000 (Econoday), though March was revised down from 228,000 to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings were a tick less than forecast, 0.2%, 3.8% year-over-year.

President Trump celebrated on Truth Social:

“Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, lowest in years, groceries (and eggs!) down, energy down, mortgage rates down, employment strong, and much more good news, as Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs.  Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!  Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down.  NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!! DJT”

[Ah, Mr. President?  Lowest gasoline at the pump for regular is $2.66 in Mississippi.  Per AAA, regular, nationwide, is $3.18, 7 cents above Inauguration Day.]

The Fed will weigh in at its Open Market Committee meeting next week, with traders focused on Chair Powell’s comments at the presser after, looking for clues as to what the Fed may do in June.  I’m sure Powell will still say we need to see more data.

In other economic news, a crush of it this week, the April ISM reading on manufacturing was 48.7, above expectations but another month below 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction.  The Chicago area manufacturing index came in at a putrid 44.6, below forecasts.

March construction spending was down 0.5%.  March factory orders rose 4.3%.

The Case-Shiller home price index for February was up 0.4% for the month on the 20-city index, and 4.5% year-over-year.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.76%.

Little economic news on tap for next week.  All eyes on Jerome Powell.

Lastly, one of the best-known adages on Wall Street is “Sell in May and go away.”

The “sell in May” effect is backed up by decades of data.  Investing in a fund that debuted in 1993 and tracks the S&P 500 during the May-October period yielded a cumulative return of 171%, compared to a 731% gain for November-April, an analysis from Bespoke Investment Group found.  The pattern last held from November 2023 to October 2024.

And it’s interesting, as Bloomberg points out, “the old adage would argue against hopping on a searing rebound that has seen the S&P 500 recover 12% from its lows of the month.”

That was after Tuesday’s market action, April 29.  Add a few more percentage points since.

Europe and Asia

The eurozone economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, starting 2025 on a modestly upbeat note before a trade war with the U.S., a surging currency and deteriorating business sentiment weaken it, according to data provided by Eurostat on Wednesday.

GDP in the 20-nation currency bloc increased by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter.  Compared with the same quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the euro area.

Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024….

Germany -0.2%, France 0.8%, Italy 0.6%, Spain 2.8%, Netherlands 2.0%

We had the April PMI numbers on manufacturing for the euro area, 49.0, a 32-month high but still below the key 50 mark. [S&P Global / Hamburg Commercial Bank]

Germany 48.4, 32-mo. high
France 48.7, 27-mo. high
Italy 49.3
Spain 48.1
Ireland 53.0, 34-mo. high
Netherlands 49.2

UK 45.4

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburgh Commercial Bank:

“A fourth consecutive increase in the HCOB PMI can be seen as a sign that the situation in the manufacturing sector is stabilizing.  This comes as a surprise given the many uncertainties and shocks of recent months.  However, the situation remains fragile, as evidenced by the fact that the headline index remains below the threshold of 50.  Industrial activity remains highly exposed to U.S. tariff policy, but the planned sharp increase in defense spending in the EU could help stabilize the situation in the long term.”

A flash estimate on April inflation for the eurozone (via Eurostat) was up 2.2%, 0.6% in April, but the 2.2% was stable with March’s rate.  Ex-food and energy, inflation rose 2.7%, which was up from 2.5% the month prior, and far higher than expected. The European Central Bank has expressed optimism it is still going to hit its 2% target this year.

Headline inflation for April….

Germany 2.2%, France 0.8%, Italy 2.1%, Spain 2.2%, Netherlands 4.1%, Ireland 2.0%

The EA20 unemployment rate for March was 6.2%, stable compared with February and down from 6.5% in March 2024.

Germany 3.5%, France 7.3%, Italy 6.0%, Spain 10.9%, Netherlands 3.9%, Ireland 4.0%

Turning to Asia…China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its PMI figures for April, with manufacturing at 49.0 vs. 50.5 prior, or contraction, and services at 50.5.  The private Caixin manufacturing number was 50.4, growth.

Reminder, the NBS looks at large state-owned operations, while Caixin monitors small- and medium-sized businesses.

The NBS figure on manufacturing was the lowest in more than a year, as export orders plunged in April to the lowest level since 2022.  It’s an early sign of the impact of U.S. tariffs popping up in hard data for the world’s second-biggest economy.

Japan reported its manufacturing PMI for April was 48.7.  Separately March industrial production fell 1.1% over February, retail sales -1.2% M/M (month-to-month).

And then the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady, but sharply cut its growth forecasts on Thursday, suggesting uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and the hit to exports could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time.

But the central bank projected inflation would stay roughly on course to hit its 2% target in coming years, a sign that risks from U.S. tariffs could delay, but not derail, its rate hike plans.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he still expects conditions for further rate hikes to eventually fall into place.

“We’ll enter a period in which both inflation and wage growth will likely slow somewhat. But we expect a positive cycle of rising wages and inflation to continue due to a severe labor shortage,” Ueda told a press conference.

But he said, “it’s hard to judge now when we can see the likelihood of our scenario being achieved.”

South Korea’s manufacturing PMI was 47.5. Taiwan’s 47.8, a 16-mo. low.

Street Bytes

—Friday, the S&P 500 extended its gains, bringing its winning streak to nine, the longest in more than 20 years (2004), which I find rather startling, let alone the full recovery from April’s tariff turbulence, helped by the solid jobs report and talk of progress on the trade front.

As alluded to above, the S&P closed at 5686, topping the low of April 8, up 2.9% on the week.  The Dow Jones rose 3.0% to 41317, and Nasdaq surged 3.4%.

Earnings season is largely over, save for Nvidia (May 28) and the big box retailers.

But what a resilient market…and economy…for now.  For businesses, both large and small, however, there remains a ton of uncertainty and little reason to hire or spend on plant and equipment.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.24%  2-yr. 3.83%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.79%

Treasury yields rose 4-7 basis points across the curve this week, the strong jobs report not helping.  All about the Fed next week.

—Crude oil as measured by West Texas Intermediate, that which I quote each week, finished today below $60 a barrel for the first time since April 2021 on a weekly basis.  There are signs of another Saudi-led OPEC+ supply surge, adding to concerns about weakening demand amid the global trade war.

Reports had the Saudis saying they are unwilling to shore up the market with further output cuts and can endure a prolonged period of lower prices.  They are now expected to announce a fresh increase in production at their next meeting, Monday.

But wait!  The videoconference/OPEC meeting has been moved up to Saturday! Change your schedule!

—Chevron reported first-quarter earnings that met Street estimates, as the company saw a turnaround in its refining business from a loss late last year.

The second-largest U.S. oil producer posted earnings of $3.8 billion in the quarter, or $2.18 per share, matching expectations.

Chevron and other oil producers have been contending with falling crude prices since April 2, when President Trump announced his sweeping tariffs that are expected to reduce global economic growth.

The lower crude prices have raised questions about whether producers will meet their goals for paying dividends and repurchasing shares – a cornerstone of Big Oil’s strategy to woo investors – or cut capital expenditure budgets.  Chevron said its share repurchases this year could be between $11.5 billion and $13 billion, which would be within prior guidance.

Chevron’s global oil production totaled 3.35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, flat from the same period last year.

During the quarter, Chevron was hit by a Trump administration order to wind down operations in Venezuela, which will impact the company’s second-quarter shipments from the country.

Exxon Mobil, the No. 1 U.S. producer, beat Wall Street’s estimate for first-quarter profit as higher oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian basin helped boost earnings. 

Profit during the January-March quarter was $7.1 billion, or $1.76 per share, beating estimates of $1.73.

Despite President Trump’s calls to “Drill, Baby, Drill,” energy companies generally have not increased investment plans and are bracing for a downturn after oil prices in April fell to a four-year low.

Sustained lower oil prices would lead producers to cut rather than increase spending and drilling.

Exxon paid $4.3 billion in dividends and repurchased $4.8 billion in shares during the quarter.  The buyback figure puts the company on track to meet its annual share repurchase goal of $20 billion.

“In this uncertain market, our shareholders can be confident in knowing that we’re built for this,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Exxon has been locked in an arbitration battle with rival Chevron over Chevron’s planned $53 billion acquisition of Hess, which owns a 30% interest in a Guyana oil joint venture that is led by Exxon.

Exxon and CNOOC, the third partner in the consortium, argue they have a first right of refusal to purchase Hess’ stake.  A hearing in the case is scheduled for May 26 in London, with a decision in the third quarter, according to Woods.

–And it was Big Tech week, Part Deux….

Microsoft shares soared 8% after the tech giant reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter financials.

Microsoft reported Q3 adjusted earnings of $3.46 a share on revenue of $70.1 billion.  Analysts expected EPS of $3.22 a share on revenue of $68.4 billion. 

In the same period last year, the company reported earnings of $2.94 a share and revenue of $61.9 billion.

Overall cloud revenue in the quarter rose 20% year-over-year to $42.4 billion, but the company’s closely watched Azure public-cloud business saw 33% growth, a pickup from last quarter’s 31% growth.

Microsoft also reported capital expenditures in the quarter of $16.7 billion, slightly higher than Street estimates of $16.2 billion and up from $11 billion in the same period one year ago.

In terms of its outlook, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said that the company’s capex expectations remained unchanged.  She added the company expects fourth-quarter Azure revenue growth to be about 34%, signaling further acceleration.

Strong guidance given by fellow software companies SAP and ServiceNow last week, along with Microsoft’s outlook, shows that businesses haven’t pulled back spending on software just yet.

But Microsoft is also cutting back on some of its AI buildout amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs could cause an economic slowdown that would hit enterprise cloud and AI spending.

—Meta Platforms soundly beat first-quarter earnings expectations Wednesday evening, the shares then surging 5%, though the company’s outlook around capital expenditures could give some investors pause.

EPS were up sharply to $6.43 versus the Street’s consensus of $5.23, a big beat, and up from $4.71 last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $42.3 billion, above expectations of $41.3 billion, and up 16% on the year.

Two of Meta’s main revenue drivers, users and ad views, came in as expected.  But ad price growth of 10% from a year ago more-than-doubled projections.

Investors were closely watching the capital expenditures figures, and while $14 billion capex in the quarter was slightly behind the pace of the $60 billion to $65 billion that Meta previously forecast, the company boosted its annual capex range to $64 billion to $72 billion.  That leaves up to $58 billion in additional capex spending in the remaining nine months of the year.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg opened the earnings call presentation with a promise for future return on all that capex in five baskets: “Improved advertising, more engaging experiences, business messaging, Meta AI, and AI devices.  And these are each long term investments, are downstream from us building general intelligence, and leading AI models and infrastructure. Even without significant investments, we don’t need to succeed in all of these areas to have a good ROI.”

“The pace of progress across the industry and the opportunities ahead of us are staggering.”

Meta’s guidance for second quarter revenue was $44 billion, at the midpoint of current analyst expectations.

The company said daily active users on its platforms rose to 3.43 billion in the first quarter, topping expectations of 3.39 billion, and up from 3.35 billion in the previous quarter.

—Apple reported the highest March-quarter revenue it has seen in more than two years, as people moved quickly to buy smartphones and other devices before new U.S. tariffs were announced in April.

The company said sales rose 5% to $95 billion, ahead of analyst expectations.  Net income for the period was $24.8 billion, up nearly 5% from the January-to-March quarter last year.  Adjusted earnings were $1.65 a share. IPhone revenue rose 2% from a year ago, to $46.8 billion.  But Greater China revenue missed expectations by almost a billion dollars, down 2% from last year, to $16.0 billion.

Apple said it expects June quarter revenue to grow low-to-mid single digits from last year, when revenue was $85.8 billion.

Apple released the iPhone 16e in the quarter, a lower-end phone that comes with limited artificial-intelligence features, a factor that helped drive demand along with pretariff buying, analysts said.

Apple was among the hardest hit of the tech giants last month because of its exposure to China.  Most of Apple’s devices are assembled in the country and investors have been watching the company’s efforts to shift production to Indian and other countries.

Other threats loom for Apple’s bottom line.  Sales of its iPhones have stagnated in part because customers in China have shifted to local brands, causing sales there to tumble.  IPhone revenue makes up about half of Apple’s sales.  And then in the U.S., a possible recession, or significant slowdown, could hit Apple particularly hard, as the company depends on people regularly upgrading expensive devices.

CEO Tim Cook said on the earnings call that a majority of current-quarter U.S. iPhone sales will come from India, which currently faces no tariffs on smartphones.  The rest will come from China as the trade war continues.  Cook said “nearly all” of the company’s other devices sold in the U.S. during the period would come from Vietnam…including iPads, Macs, the Apple Watch and AirPods.

Cook also told analysts that it’s difficult to predict how tariffs will play out.  But assuming the current global tariff rates, policies and applications don’t change for the rest of the June quarter, and no new tariffs are added, they estimate it will add $900 million to costs.

—Amazon.com had an eventful week, ahead of earnings, as on Tuesday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, accused the company of being “hostile and political,” citing a report – disputed by Amazon – saying the company would start displaying the exact cost of tariff-related price increases alongside its products.

Displaying the import fees would have made clear to American consumers that they are shouldering the cost of Trump’s tariff policies rather than China, as he and his top officials have claimed would be the case.

An Amazon spokesman said in a statement, “Teams discuss ideas all the time. This was never approved and is not going to happen.”

We then learned President Trump called Jeff Bezos, and the company’s founder assured the prez that Amazon was not putting the information on its products.  Trump said later Tuesday it was a good call and that Bezos was a “good guy.”

Amazon then posted higher first-quarter profits and sales, after the market closed Thursday, and the online juggernaut issued a tempered sales outlook amid uncertainty about President Trump’s tariffs.

The Seattle-based company said that it earned $17.13 billion, or $1.59 per share, for the quarter ended March 31. That compares with $10.43 billion, or 98 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

Revenue rose 9% to $155.7 billion, up from $143.3 billion from a year ago.

The Street was at $1.37 per share on revenue of $155.15 billion.

The company expects sales in the second quarter to be in the range of $159 billion to $164 billion.

Amazon Web Services, AWS, the cloud-computing arm, saw its quarterly sales grow by almost 17% to $29.3 billion, slightly below expectations.

Separately, the first 27 satellites for Amazon’s Kuiper broadband internet constellation were launched into space from Florida on Monday, kicking off the long-delayed deployment of an internet-from-space network that will rival SpaceX’s Starlink.

The satellites are the first of 3,236 that Amazon plans to send into low-Earth orbit for Project Kuiper, a $10 billion effort unveiled in 2019 to beam broadband internet globally for consumers, businesses and governments – customers that SpaceX has courted for years with its powerful Starlink business.

—Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai told a judge that a Justice Department proposal to share search data with its rivals would be a “de facto” divestiture of the company’s search engine. If Google were required to share both its search data and the information on how it ranks results, rivals could reverse-engineer “every aspect of our technology,” Pichai testified Wednesday, as part of a three-week trial aimed at determining how Google should restore competition to online search, after U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled last year the tech giant had illegally maintained a monopoly.

The government wants Google to divest itself of its Chrome browser, license some search data to competitors and stop paying for exclusive positions on other apps and devices. It has also asked that Mehta extend the ban to Google’s artificial intelligence products, including its AI assistant Gemini, which the government says were aided by the company’s illegal monopoly in search.

—Ryanair reiterated it would look for an alternative aircraft supplier if U.S. tariffs materially affect the prices of planes it has ordered from Boeing, CEO Michael O’Leary said in a letter on Thursday, adding that he would consider Chinese planemaker COMAC.

“If the U.S. government proceeds with its ill-judged plan to impose tariffs, and if these tariffs materially affect the price of Boeing aircraft exports to Europe, then we would certainly reassess both our current Boeing orders, and the possibility of placing those orders elsewhere,” O’Leary said in a letter to a U.S. lawmaker seen by Reuters.

–Excuse the language but it’s been a real s—show at Newark Airport this week, with extensive delays officials blame on “FAA staffing challenges and equipment failures,” construction, and wind conditions.

Delays Friday made it three this week with significant disruptions.  The FAA said it has slowed arrivals and departures at Newark after Philadelphia TRACON – which guides aircraft in and out of Newark – saw telecommunications and equipment issues, as well as being severely understaffed.

I forget what travel expert said it this week, but it was essentially, ‘More than any other destination in the country, avoid Newark Airport at all costs this summer.’

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

5/1…116 percent of 2024 levels
4/30…107
4/29…82
4/28…98
4/27…132
4/26…82
4/25…103
4/24…119

It’s been very hard thus far in 2025 to glean a pattern.  The key will be Memorial Day through Labor Day, and to see if leisure, and business, travel really declines.

—General Motors reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning that slightly topped expectations amid reports that tariff relief was coming.

The biggest of the Big Three automakers said investors could no longer “rely” on its forward guidance as it grapples with the effects of President Trump’s auto tariffs.

Late Monday night, the Wall Street Journal first reported that the White House will aid automakers by preventing tariffs on foreign-made cars stacking on top of other tariffs currently imposed by the administration.  Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a deal, without offering details, and then the president confirmed it later.

Tariffs on auto parts, coming on May 3rd, would also be reimbursed “up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year,” then 2.5% the year after being phasing out.

GM, which postponed its earnings call until Thursday, said in a statement it was looking for more clarity, and that it wouldn’t comment on any price changes at the moment, and it didn’t need to raise additional company.

GM reported Q1 revenue of $4.02 billion vs. $43.03 billion, up 2.3% compared to a year ago.  GM posted adjusted EPS of $2.78 vs. $2.72 expected, with operating income of $3.35 billion vs. $3.45 billion estimated.

Earlier in the month, GM said Q1 U.S. sales jumped 17% year over year to 693,363 units, powered by trucks and EVs, across the company’s four brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC.

GM said it was No. 1 in overall full-size pickup sales, including Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra models, with more than 200,000 units sold, its best first quarter since 2007.

The overall industry saw a jump in Q1 sales, especially in March, as buyers tried to get ahead of Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, which began on April 2.

After the slight tariff reprieve announced later Tuesday, GM then said on its call that it expects operating profit of between $10 billion and $12.5 billion.  The midpoint of $11.3 billion is lower than prior guidance of $14.7 billion, down 23%.

“We look forward to maintaining our strong dialogue with the administration on trade and other policies as they continue to evolve,” said CEO Mary Barra in a news release.  “As you know, there are ongoing discussions with key trade partners that may also have an impact. We will continue to be nimble and disciplined and update you as we know more.”

—Chinese tech conglomerate Huawei is looking to take on semiconductor behemoth Nvidia with a new advanced AI chip.

Huawei is making progress developing its latest Ascend AI GPU, the Ascend 910D, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter.  The Journal reports the company hopes that its chip will rival Nvidia’s H100 series, which is popular for training AI models.

—Eli Lilly on Thursday posted better-than-expected first quarter revenue and profit, although sales of its popular weight-loss drug, Zepbound, came in slightly below Wall Street estimates, sending its shares down.

The success of the company’s diabetes and weight-loss treatments has led Eli Lilly to become the world’s most valuable healthcare company, worth more than $800 billion.

It competes with Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk in the lucrative market for these treatments, known as GLP-1 agonists.

Zepbound posted sales of $2.31 billion for the latest quarter. Analysts were expecting sales of $2.33 billion.

On an adjusted basis, the U.S. drugmaker earned $3.34 per share for the quarter, compared with analysts’ estimates of $3.02 per share.  Total revenue was $12.73 billion for the quarter, above expectations.

Separately, CVS announced two key developments in the hot weight-loss market Thursday (as part of a positive earnings report), marking a shift from insurers that are ending coverage and employers that have put restrictions on access and coverage.

The first development was placing Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster Wegovy as a preferred drug on its formularly, to the exclusion of Lilly’s Zepbound, for $499 per month.

“Now that there’s adequate supply of both of these GLP-1s, CVS Caremark was able to negotiate Wegovy against Zepbound to determine which manufacturer of these clinically similar products could deliver the greatest overall value and lowest net cost for our clients that choose to participate on our standard commercial formularies,” a CVS said in a statement Thursday.

That means patients will be steered to Wegovy if they are prescribed a weight-loss drug and have CVS Caremark as their pharmacy benefit manager (PBM).

—United Parcel Service Inc. said it expects to cut 20,000 jobs this year and close dozens of facilities as it dramatically reduces shipments for e-commerce giant Amazon.

The package delivery company said Tuesday that it anticipates making the job cuts this year.  It anticipates closing 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June.

“The actions we are taking to reconfigure our network and reduce cost across our business could not be timelier,” CEO Carol Tome said in a statement.  “The macro environment may be uncertain, but with our actions, we will emerge as an even stronger, more nimble UPS.”

In January UPS announced that it had reached a deal with Amazon, its biggest customer, to lower its volume by more than 50% by the second half of 2026.

“Amazon is our largest customer but it’s not our most profitable customer,” Tome said then.  “Its margin is very dilutive to the U.S. domestic business.”

The company employs about 490,000 workers.

For the first quarter, UPS earned $1.19 billion, or $1.49 on adjusted earnings, better than consensus.  Revenue of $21.55bn was also ahead of the Street’s expectations.

—Caterpillar said Wednesday it anticipates that tariffs may increase its second-quarter costs by up to $350 million as its first-quarter sales slipped on declining demand for its equipment.

In Q1, Caterpillar’s revenue dropped to $14.25 billion from $15.8 billion a year earlier.  The performance fell short of the $14.54 billion that analysts expected.

Sales volume dropped by $1.1 billion. Dealer inventories rose by $100 million in the quarter, significantly down from the $1.4 billion increase in the prior-year period.

CAT earned $2 billion, or $4.20 per share, for the three months ended March 31.  A year earlier, the Irving, Texas-based company earned $2.86 billion, or $5.75 per share.  Adjusted earnings were $4.25 per share, missing the Street’s forecast for $4.30.

For the second quarter, Caterpillar said it foresees its sales being similar to the prior-year period.  When accounting for the cost impact of current tariff levels for the rest of the year, the company anticipates full-year sales will be down slightly compared with a year earlier, which is in line with previous expectations.

—Coca-Cola reported a smaller-than-expected drop in first-quarter revenue on Tuesday, benefiting from price hikes and strong demand for its sodas, juices and milk offering Fairlife.

The company’s price hikes in highly inflationary markets such as Argentina and Latin America, coupled with customers still choosing to spend on its slightly higher-priced products, have helped boost sales growth.

Consumer goods companies such as PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble have noted a general slowdown in demand, but Coca-Cola has enjoyed growth for its sparkling drinks and Fairlife milk in the North American market (I have no idea what Fairlife is…I’ll have to check it out).

Coca-Cola’s average selling price rose 5% in the first quarter, while unit case volumes increased 2%.

But volumes in North America fell 3%, mostly due to a slowdown in demand for its legacy brands such as Coca-Cola and Sprite, as well as coffee.

Quarterly revenue fell to $11.22 billion from $11.23 billion a year earlier, slightly ahead of consensus.

“(Coca-Cola’s) operations are primarily local, however, it is subject to global trade dynamics which may impact certain components of the company’s cost structure across its markets,” the company said in a statement.  “At this time, the company expects the impact to be manageable.”

—Starbucks’ quarterly earnings on Tuesday missed Wall Street estimates, but the coffee giant’s CEO says the turnaround plan has “real momentum.”

For the second fiscal quarter ended in March, Starbucks reported 41 cents in EPS, lower than the Street at 49 cents, on $8.8 billion in revenue, in line with expectations.

“My initial optimism has turned to clear confidence,” CEO Brian Niccol said in a statement. “We are where we should be at this point in our turnaround.”

Niccol, the former highly successful Chipotle CEO, has made various moves to speed up Starbucks’ service and revive its warm vibe. And in March, foot traffic at the coffee chain’s U.S. locations was down 2% from a year ago, an improvement from February, when it was down 4%, according to Placer.ai, which tracks retail and restaurant visits across the country.

The CEO wants to cut wait times to less than four minutes, adding more employees in stores, installing more efficient workstations, and testing a new algorithm to improve order sequencing and allow mobile customers to set their own pickup time. 

Niccol also plans to eliminate 30% of the menu items to focus on the firm’s core coffee offerings, while condiment bars have been brought back.

Starbucks is also remodeling some stores to make them more welcoming, often by adding more comfortable seating.  But as a Jefferies analyst told Barron’s, “I just think, how many people really want to sit around in a Starbucks café these days?”

—McDonald’s posted a surprise decline in first-quarter global comparable sales on Thursday, as demand from cash-strapped diners in its key markets faltered on uncertainty sparked by chaotic tariffs.

The company was navigating the “toughest of market conditions,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said, as global comparable sales fell 1%, while analysts on average had estimated a 1% rise. The shares fell 2% early on.

McDonald’s results echoed recent warnings from other restaurant owners and Starbucks.

The Chicago-based company has attempted to spur demand by ramping up its value menu offers, including limited time deals on its burgers and fries, similar to rivals.

Still, comp sales in the U.S. slumped 3.6% in the first quarter, far steeper than analysts forecast.

But there was a sales recovery in the Middle East and Japan, the former after a demand hit following last year’s widespread informal boycotts of Western fast-food chains over their perceived pro-Israel stance in the Gaza conflict.

–Wendy’s, in reporting its earnings, said a consumer pullback was most evident during breakfast hours and in the month of March.  During parts of that month, the broader industry experienced a low-double-digit drop in traffic among households making less than $75,000 annually, Wendy’s CFO Ken Cook said on an earnings call Friday.

Wendy’s forecast sales may decline in 2025 over 2024.

—Domino’s Pizza reported total U.S. revenue of $2.24 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up 1.3% from the same period last year. 

Earnings came in at $4.33 per share, up 21% from a year ago and beating expectations of $4.06.  Share repurchases during the past four quarters helped the EPS number.

U.S. restaurants have been struggling to attract consumer traffic as inflation and recession fears make people dine out less.  But Domino’s large international exposure has made it a safer bet compared to other restaurant chains mostly focused on the domestic market.

In the first quarter, Domino’s global retail sales increased 4.7% from a year ago to reach $4.46 billion, with same-store sales declining 0.5% in the U.S., but increasing 3.7% overseas.

The company did not give guidance for 2025. The shares rose a bit.

–Fast-food restaurant owner Yum Brands logged higher revenue in the first quarter despite operating in what CEO David Gibbs called a complex consumer environment.

The owner of Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell locations posted a profit of $253 million, or 90 cents a share, for its three months ended March 31, compared with $314 million, or $1.10 a share a year earlier.

Adjusted per-share earnings came in at $1.30, just ahead of the $1.29 Street consensus.  Revenue increased 12%, to $1.79 billion, but missed analysts’ forecasts of $1.85 billion.  Yum said Taco Bell and KFC led sales growth during the recent quarter.

Global same-store sales rose 3% across all the company’s restaurants, compared with analyst projections for a 3.2% increase.  The metric grew 9% and 2% across the company’s Taco Bell and KFC divisions, respectively, while Pizza Hut’s comp sales fell 2%.

—President Trump’s tariffs have sent the U.S. agricultural industry into a “full-blown crisis” as canceled orders from China are forcing farmers to lay off workers or shut down their businesses, according to a trade group.

China last week made its largest cancellation of pork orders since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Meanwhile, China dropped its soybean orders to just 1,800 tons’ worth in the week ending April 17 – down massively from 72,800 tons purchased the week before, the USDA said.

The Chinese market would be a huge loss for American farmers, who exported more than $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods to the country, according to the USDA.

U.S. soybean farmers, in particular, will lose out on a crucial market.  China is the world’s top buyer of soybeans, importing nearly $13 billion worth from the U.S. last year, according to the USDA.

The same farmers lost a good chunk of their share of the Chinese market to Brazilian counterparts during the 2018 trade war, in the first Trump administration, according to the American Soybean Association.

–Struggling retailer Kohl’s removed CEO Ashley Buchanan following an investigation that uncovered company policy violations by the chief executive, the department store chain said on Thursday.

The move comes after Buchanan was appointed to the top job in November, replacing Tom Kingsbury.

A board investigation found Buchanan directed the company to engage in vendor transactions that involved undisclosed conflicts of interest, Kohl’s said, adding that Buchanan’s removal did not affect its financial reporting or other employees.

The Wall Street Journal said Buchanan entered into a “highly unusual” business deal involving a woman with whom he has had a romantic relationship, according to people familiar with the situation.

Buchanan met the woman, Chandra Holt, when they were both working at Walmart several years ago.  Buchanan then directed Kohl’s to conduct business with the company Holt is now a consultant and a founder of, Incredibrew, a coffee brand infused with vitamins and minerals.  Buchanan also caused Kohl’s to enter into a multimillion-dollar consulting agreement, where Holt is part of the consulting team.

Kohl’s provided preliminary first-quarter results, with the company expected to report earnings on May 29.

The company has been grappling with weak demand for several quarters as department stores struggle to attract consumers due to stiff competition from e-commerce firms and big-box retailers such as Walmart and Costco.

Kohl’s expects Q1 comparable sales to fall between 4.3% and 4%, better than current analysts’ expectations of 6.3%.  The company expects a loss per share in the range of 24 cents to 20 cents, compared with estimates of 52 cents.

—Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the year as cruise demand continues to defy the increasingly dire situation of the wider travel market.

–In an extraordinary on-air rebuke, Scott Pelley, one of the top journalists at “60 Minutes,” directly criticized the program’s parent company in the final moments of last Sunday’s broadcast.  I have to admit I was waiting for the ending to see if the issue would be discussed, that being the resignation of the program’s executive producer, Bill Owens.

“Paramount began to supervise our content in new says,” Pelley told viewers. “None of our stories has been blocked, but Bill felt he lost the independence that honest journalism requires.”

A spokesman for Paramount had no immediate comment and has previously declined to comment on Owens’ departure.

As I wrote last WIR, Owens stunned the staff a week ago Tuesday when he said he would leave the program over disagreements with Paramount, CBS’ corporate parent, saying, “It’s clear the company is done with me.”

Shari Redstone, the controlling shareholder of Paramount, has been intent on securing approval from the Trump administration for a multibillion-dollar sale of her media company to a studio run by the son of Larry Ellison, the tech billionaire.

President Trump sued CBS last year, claiming $10 billion in damages, in a case stemming from a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris, that Trump said was deceptively edited.  Redstone has expressed her desire to settle the lawsuit, although legal experts have called the case far-fetched.

Scott Pelley presented Owens’ decision to resign as an effort to protect “60 minutes” from further interference.

“He did it for us and you,” Pelley told viewers.  “Stories we pursued for 57 years are often controversial – lately, the Israel-Gaza War and the Trump administration.  Bill made sure they were accurate and fair.  He was tough that way. But our parent company, Paramount, is trying to complete a merger. The Trump administration must approve it.  Paramount began to supervise our content in new ways.”

Pelley concluded sharply: “No one here is happy about it.  But in resigning, Bill proved one thing. He was the right person to lead ’60 Minutes’ all along.”

Sunday’s “60 Minutes” also featured a segment that examined the Trump administration’s decision to reduce funding to the National Institutes of Health, including an interview with a former director who expressed his concerns about adverse effects on Americans’ health.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: What’s taking Trump so long to end a war he said he could stop within 24 hours of taking office?  “Well, I said that figuratively, and I said that as an exaggeration,” Trump told Time magazine in an interview published last week marking his first 100 days in office.  “Obviously, people know that when I said that, it was said in jest.”

There were over 50 times Trump said he could end the Ukraine war within 24 hours before he took office.

At Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday, Presidents Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had an opportunity to chat for 10-15 minutes, one-on-one.    Trump said after he thought Zelensky was willing to give up Crimea to Russia as part of a peace deal – despite Kyiv’s previous rejections of any such proposal.

Asked if he thought Zelensky was ready to cede control of its southern peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, Trump replied: “I think so.”

Speaking to reporters after returning from the Vatican, Trump urged Putin to “stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal” to end the fighting.

Trump said his meeting with the Ukrainian leader had “gone well” and that Crimea had been discussed “very briefly.”

Earlier on Sunday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned Ukraine not to agree to a deal which involves sweeping territorial concessions in return for a ceasefire.

He told German public broadcaster ARD that Kyiv “should not go as far as the latest proposal by the American president,” which he said would amount to a “capitulation.”

The German minister said that Ukraine knew it might have to part with some territory to secure a truce.

“But they will certainly not go as far – or should not go as far – as the latest proposal by the American president.

“Ukraine could have got a year ago what was included in that proposal, it is akin to a capitulation.  I cannot discern any added value,” Pistorius said.

Trump said the week prior that “most of the major points [of the deal] are agreed to.”

–On Monday, Putin declared a three-day ceasefire in the war from May 8-10, when Russia plans lavish celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

“Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example,” the Kremlin said in a statement.  “In case of violations of the ceasefire by the Ukrainian side, the Russian armed forces will give an adequate and efficient response.”

Putin previously announced a 30-hour Easter ceasefire and Ukraine voiced readiness to reciprocate any genuine truce then, but said the Russian attacks continued.  Moscow, in turn, accused Ukraine of failing to halt attacks.

Ukraine, in response to Putin’s May 8-10 proposal, questioned why Moscow would not agree to its call for a ceasefire lasting at least 30 days and starting immediately.

“We value people’s lives and not parades,” President Zelensky said.

[Putin is desperate Ukraine keep to his proposal as he does not want to be embarrassed, especially during the parade.  Imagine a drone attack on Moscow at that time.]

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Ukraine had not responded to many offers by President Putin to start direct peace negotiations, and that it was unclear whether it would join a three-day ceasefire next week.

“It was President Putin who repeatedly said that Russia is ready, without any preconditions, to start the negotiation process,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.  “We have not heard a response from the Kyiv regime so far.”

But up until now, Putin had refused to accept a complete unconditional ceasefire, linking it to a halt in Western arms supplies to Ukraine and Ukraine’s mobilization effort.

Sunday, on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week was “very critical.” The U.S. needs to “make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in.”

–Also Monday, President Putin thanked North Korean troops for fighting Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, after North Korea on Monday confirmed the deployment for the first time.

In a statement from the Kremlin, Putin hailed the heroism and dedication of the North Korean fighters, who he said, “shoulder to shoulder with Russian fighters, defended our Motherland as their own.”

Russia claimed on Saturday that its troops have fully reclaimed Kursk region that Ukrainian forces seized in a surprise incursion last year.  Ukrainian officials denied the claim.  The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Saturday Ukrainian troops were still operating in Kursk.

U.S., South Korean and Ukraine intelligence officials have said North Korea dispatched 10,000-12,000 troops* to Russia last fall in its first participation in a major armed conflict since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. 

*South Korean officials upped the total to 14,000, mostly members of its special operations units, including 3,000 dispatched between January and February to replace those killed or wounded, according to Seoul.

A statement from North Korea cited Kim Jong-un as saying the deployment was meant to “annihilate and wipe out the Ukrainian neo-Nazi occupiers and liberate the Kursk area in cooperation with the Russian armed forces.”

“They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honor of the motherland,” Kim said.

Kim said a monument will soon be erected in Pyongyang to mark North Korea’s battle feats and that flowers will be laid before the tombstones of the fallen soldiers.  He said the government must take care of the families of the soldiers who took part in the war.  Perhaps an extra portion of gruel.

South Korea’s spy agency then said Wednesday that they estimated 4,700 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting.  South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said the casualties included 600 deaths.

One of the lawmakers who attended the meeting, Lee Seong Kweun, said the NIS reported that 2,000 injured North Korean soldiers were repatriated to North Korea by air or train between January and March.  Lee cited the NIS as saying the dead soldiers were cremated in Russia before their remains were sent back home.

–Late Tuesday night, swarms of Russian drones attacked the cities of Kharkiv and Dnipro, killing at least one person and wounding around 50, officials said.

In an interview with ABC’s Terry Moran, President Trump said he thinks Vladimir Putin wants to stop Russia’s war, despite the slew of deadly recent attacks.

Trump said “I think he does” when asked whether he thinks Putin wants to make peace.  “If it weren’t for me, I think he’d want to take over the whole country.  I will tell you, I was not happy when I saw Putin shooting missiles into a few towns and cities.”

Wednesday, Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia was intensifying its attacks across Ukraine’s frontline and several cities, reporting 177 clashes on the battlefield in the country’s southeast with Russian troops “rushing” deeper into Ukraine.

“The Russian are trying to break defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia region,” a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern command said late Tuesday. The situation in the Kherson Region in the south has become “quite tense” in recent days, he said.

—Wednesday, Ukraine seemed poised to sign a landmark mineral resources agreement with the United States in Washington.

Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was in Washington for the final coordination of the agreement’s technical details, according to the Associated Press.  But it wasn’t immediately clear whether the Trump administration was ready to ink the deal.

Trump has said that he wants Ukraine’s rare earth elements as a condition of further support.

Ukraine has deposits of titanium, which is used for making aircraft wings and other aerospace manufacturing.  It has lithium, key to several current battery technologies, and uranium, used for nuclear power, medical equipment and weapons.  On top of that, it has graphite and manganese, both used in batteries for electric vehicles.

Later Wednesday, the administration then did reach a deal, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailing it as a step toward a negotiated end to the war and the beginning of the country’s reconstruction.  The administration dropped its insistence that the agreement allow Washington to recoup billions of dollars of past military aid.

“As the President has said, the United States is committed to helping facilitate the end of this cruel and senseless war,” Bessent said in a press release.  “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.”

Bessent added: “And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

Details, however, are still lacking, such as the future of American military support for Ukraine.  And despite the fanfare, the deal will have little significance if fighting continues.

–It’s important to understand President Trump’s mindset these days.  He posted the following to Truth Social onboard Air Force One after Pope Francis’ funeral.

“No matter what deal I make with respect to Russia/Ukraine, no matter how good it is, even if it’s the greatest deal ever made, The Failing New York Times will speak BADLY of it.  Liddle’ Peter Baker, the very biased and untalented writer for The Times, followed his Editor’s demands and wrote that Ukraine should get back territory, including, I suppose, Crimea, and other ridiculous requests, in order to stop the killing that is worse than anything since World War II.  Why doesn’t this lightweight reporter say that it was Obama who made it possible for Russia to steal Crimea from Ukraine without even a shot being fired…. I’ve had nothing to do with this stupid war, other than early on, when I gave Ukraine Javelins, and Obama gave them sheets.  This is Sleepy Joe Biden’s War, not mine.  It was a loser from day one, and should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened if I were President at the time.  I’m just trying to clean up the mess that was left to me by Obama and Biden, and what a mess it is.  With all that being said, there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days.  It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’  Too many people are dying!!!”

Peter Baker’s extensive Times’ column over the weekend started out:

“If President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia drafted a shopping list of what he wanted from Washington, it would be hard to beat what he was offered in the first 100 days of President Trump’s new term.

“Pressure on Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia? Check.

“The promise of sanctions relief? Check.

“Absolution from invading Ukraine?  Check.”

And then there’s Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.  Steve Witkoff?  Sitting down face-to-face with Vladimir Putin?  You’ve seen the moronic statements Witkoff has made thus far on Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

As Peter Baker appropriately noted in the column Trump criticized, “the president’s vision for peace appeared notably one-sided, letting Russia keep the regions it had taken by force in violation of international law while forbidding Ukraine from ever joining NATO.

“But that is not all that Mr. Putin has gotten out of Mr. Trump’s return to power.  Intentionally or not, many of the president’s actions on other fronts also suit Moscow’s interests, including the rifts he has opened with America’s traditional allies and the changes he has made to the U.S. government itself.

“Mr. Trump has been tearing down American institutions that have long aggravated Moscow, such as Voice of America and the National Endowment for Democracy.  He has been disarming the nation in its netherworld battle against Russia by halting cyber offensive operations and curbing programs to combat Russian disinformation, election interference, sanctions violations and war crimes.

“He spared Russia from the tariffs that he is imposing on imports from nearly every other nation, arguing that it was already under sanctions.  Yet he still applied the tariff on Ukraine, the other party he is negotiating with….

“Mr. Trump has long rejected criticism that he is soft on Russia, even as he has expressed admiration for Mr. Putin.  He issued a rare rebuke of Mr. Putin this week after a missile strike on Kyiv killed at least a dozen people, demanding on social media, ‘Vladimir, STOP!’

“Speaking with reporters later, Mr. Trump denied that he was pressuring just Ukraine for concessions.  ‘We’re putting a lot of pressure on Russia, and Russia knows that,’ he said.

“Asked what Moscow would have to give up as part of a peace deal, Mr. Trump said only that Russia would not get to take over all of Ukraine – something it had not actually been able to do militarily in the three years since its full-scale invasion. ‘Stopping the war, stopping taking the whole country, pretty big concession,’ he said.”

But Trump’s supposed peace proposal recognizing Russian authority over Crimea shocked Ukrainian officials, as I noted last week, who say they will not accept any formal surrender of the peninsula, even though they expect to concede the territory to the Kremlin, at least temporarily.

Reminder, giving up the land that was illegally annexed by Russia is not just politically impossible, but also legally impossible.  It would require a change to the Ukrainian constitution and a nationwide vote, and it could be considered treason.  Lawmakers and the public are firmly opposed to the idea.

“It doesn’t mean anything,” said Oleksandr Merezkho, a lawmaker with Zelensky’s party.  “We will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia.”

The Ukrainian public largely understands that land must be ceded as part of any armistice because there is no way to retake it militarily. Polls indicate a rising percentage of the population accepts such a trade-off.

But the land concessions aren’t permanent.  Saying otherwise admits defeat, a deeply unpopular sentiment, especially for Ukrainians living under Russian occupation who hope to be liberated and reunited with their families one day. And it would call into question the sacrifices of the tens of thousands of Ukrainian service members who have been killed or wounded.

But in his Time magazine interview, President Trump said: “Crimea will stay with Russia.  Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time.”

Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday the war in Ukraine is “not going to end any time soon.”

Vance said the question facing the administration now was how it could help Russia and Ukraine “find middle ground” to end the conflict.

But, Vance added, “it’s going to be up to [Russia and Ukraine] to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict.”

In a separate interview with Fox News on Thursday, Secretary of State Rubio said there needed to be a “breakthrough” in the conflict soon, otherwise Trump “will have to decide how much time to dedicate to this.”

Israel/Gaza: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the victory over Hamas as a more important goal in the Gaza war than the return of the hostages, according to Israeli media reports on Thursday.

The release of the abductees is “a very important goal, but there is a superior goal,” he was quoted as saying by the Times of Israel and other outlets.

“The supreme objective is victory over our enemies, and this we will achieve,” he said at an event to mark Israel’s Independence Day.

The mother of one of the abductees reportedly reacted indignantly to Netanyahu’s comments, saying she herself now wanted to overthrow Netanyahu in order to get her son back.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, whose motto is “Bring them home now,” reacted with shock to the comments.

Separately, Israel has blocked aid into Gaza since March 2 and to call it a humanitarian crisis is a vast understatement.  Israel is losing me…let the aid in!

Iran: The death toll from a massive explosion at an Iranian port rose to 40 on Sunday with more than 800 people injured, according to state media.  Several people are missing.

The blast Saturday evening at Iran’s largest and most important shipping port resulted in a major fire, which spread and caused destruction in the surrounding areas.  Iran’s health ministry, citing airborne toxic pollutants, declared a state of emergency in the province and instructed people to stay indoors.

The port, Shahid Rajaee, is strategically located in Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz.

Last year the port handled 85 percent of Iran’s shipping container traffic, as well as a large portion of its oil, according to the Port and Maritime Organization.

An Iranian official told state media that the explosion was likely set off by containers of chemicals, including what might have been a shipment of rocket fuel from China intended to replenish Iran’s missile stocks, and the authorities have not suggested that the blast was caused by sabotage or a deliberate attack.  Flammable materials may have been stored near the containers.

This seems very similar to the massive explosion that impacted a large portion of Beirut five years ago, killing scores, devastating neighborhoods, all caused by careless storage of highly flammable ammonium nitrate in the Port of Beirut.

The Shahid Rajaee explosion occurred as U.S. and Iranian officials met in Muscat, south of the Gulf of Oman, for a third round of talks over Tehran’s nuclear program under the mediation of Oman.

In Yemen, at least 68 African migrants were killed in a U.S. air strike on a detention center in Houthi-controlled northwest, the armed group’s TV channel said.

There was no comment I saw from the U.S. military, but it came hours after U.S. Central Command announced that its forces had hit more than 800 targets since President Trump ordered an intensification of the air campaign against the Houthis on March 15.

Despite the humanitarian crisis in Yemen caused by 11 years of conflict, migrants continue to arrive in the country by boat from the Horn of Africa, most of them intending to cross into neighboring Saudi Arabia to find work.

Instead, they face exploitation, detention, violence, and dangerous journeys through active conflict zones, according to the International Organization of Migration.

In 2024 alone, the IOM said almost 60,900 migrants arrived in the country, often with no means to survive.

Separately, Houthi rebels in Yemen have shot down seven U.S. Reaper drones in less than six weeks, a loss of aircraft worth more than $200 million in what is becoming the most dramatic cost to the Pentagon of the military campaign against the Iran-backed militants.

The Houthis have also continued to fire missiles and one-way attack drones at U.S. military ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. They haven’t hit any, but the flow of trade through the Red Sea corridor remains severely disrupted.

China: China’s top market regulator said on Sunday it was paying close attention to CK Hutchison’s planned sale of most of its port operations to a BlackRock-led consortium and parties to the deal should not try to avoid an antitrust review.

The sale by the Hong Kong conglomerate, which contains two ports along the strategically important Panama Canal, has become highly politicized amid intensifying U.S.-Sino trade tensions.

“No concentration of undertakings shall be implemented without approval, otherwise legal liability will be incurred,” the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a statement.

The deal has two components with different ownership structures – one for the Panama ports and one for everything else, a report in the Wall Street Journal had it.

I’m surprised President Trump and the administration haven’t been saying more on this topic. Yes, Trump wants free passage for U.S. ships through the canal, but he hasn’t brought up the specific deal, which I argued over a month ago is a major potential flash point if China pressured CK to pull it, CK owned by its 96-year-old Hong Kong billionaire, Li Ka-shing.

India/Pakistan: The U.S. has urged India and Pakistan to work together to “de-escalate tension” after the deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 civilians.

Secretary of State Rubio held separate talks with India’s foreign minister and Pakistan’s prime minister on Wednesday and called on them to “maintain peace and security in South Asia.”

Pakistan has said an Indian attack is imminent.

Random Musings

—Presidential approval rankings….

Gallup: 44% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Apr. 1-14).

Rasmussen: 50% approve, 49% disapprove (May 2).  Prior split 47-51.

We had a slew of new polls for Trump’s First 100 Days.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of voters found President Trump’s job approval rating sits at 42%, 54% disapproval.

On immigration 46% approve, 51% disapprove.  On the economy 43% approve, 55% disapprove of his handling of it.

A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll has Trump with a 39% approval rating among American adults, 55% disapproving.  In February, the split was 45-53.  [Among registered voters, 42% give the Trump a positive rating, 55% disapproving, while the split was 48-51 in February.]

On tariffs, 34% approve of Trump’s handling of the issue, 64% disapprove.  The split among Republicans is 74-25, approve-disapprove.  Democrats 4-96.  Independents 28-70.  In all categories and issues, it’s really about independents’ views, especially come the midterms. 

On immigration, 46% approve of the president’s performance, 53% disapprove. It was 50-48 in February.

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds Trump at just 41% job approval, down 4 points since March, and 7 points lower than it was in late February. 

Since March, Trump has seen notable drops in approval from women and Hispanic Americans (down 7 points in each group to 36% among women and 28% among Hispanics). Among independents, Trump’s job approval has dipped to 31%, matching his first-term low point with that group.

On inflation, approval is down 9 points to 35%, and on tariffs themselves, it’s down 4 points to 35%.  His marks for handling the economy are down 5 points to a career low of 39%.

An NBC News Stay Tuned Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey, had 45% of adults approving of Trump’s job performance as president, 55% disapproving.  Just 32% of independents approve, 68% disapprove.

Just 40% approve of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living.  A nearly identical 39% approve of Trump’s handling of trade and tariffs.  On the issue of handling border security and immigration, 49% support the president’s handling of the topics.

A new Economist/YouGov poll has Trump at 41% approval, 53% disapproval.

—President Trump replaced national security adviser Mike Waltz roughly a month after he put a journalist on a group text chat in which advisers discussed a sensitive military operation, making him the first top official to lose his job in Trump’s second term.

Trump announced on Truth Social that Waltz would be nominated as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.  Sec. of State Rubio will step in as interim national security adviser, Trump said, and he will continue to also serve in his current role.

No one is really surprised at the move, but far-right activist Laura Loomer had targeted Waltz, telling Trump in a recent Oval Office conversation that he needs to purge aides who she believes are insufficiently loyal to the “Make America Great Again” agenda.

Thursday, as reports began to circulate that Waltz could be leaving the administration, Loomer appeared to take credit in a post on Xi, writing: “SCALP.”

“Hopefully, the rest of the people who were set to be fired but were given promotions at the NSC under Waltz also depart,” Loomer wrote in another post.

This woman is a real [fill in the blank].

Waltz’s deputy, Alex Wong, is also being ousted, Wong a former aide to Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and senior negotiator during Trump’s first-term nuclear diplomacy with North Korea.

—President Trump, in his ABC News interview, insisted – wrongly, repeatedly, and vehemently – that Kilmar Abrego Garcia literally had “MS13” tattooed on his knuckles.  That image was in fact an edited one.

But he also, for a second time, undermined the administration’s claims about its ability to get Abrego Garcia – who was wrongly deported – returned to the U.S.

“You could get him back,” ABC News’ Terry Moran posited.  “There’s a phone on this desk.”

To which Trump responded: “I could.”

Trump then said: “I’m not the one making this decision.  We have lawyers that don’t want to do this.”

“Frankly, bringing him back and retrying him wouldn’t bother me,” Trump said.  “But I leave that up to my lawyer.”  He added: “At this moment, they just don’t want to do that.”

Thursday, a federal judge permanently barred the administration from invoking the Alien Enemies Act, the 18th-century wartime law, to deport Venezuelans it has deemed to be criminals from the Southern District of Texas, saying that the White House’s use of the statute was illegal.

The 36-page ruling by Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr., a Trump appointee, amounted to a philosophical rejection of the White House’ attempts to transpose the Alien Enemies Acti, which was passed in 1798 as the nascent United States was threatened by war with France, into the context of modern-day immigration policy.

The Supreme Court has already said that any Venezuelans the White House wants to expel must be given a chance to challenge their removal.

—President Trump ordered an end to taxpayer subsidies for National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service, a longstanding goal of some Republicans who have accused the media outlets of bias.

In an executive order late Thursday, Trump said that government funding of news media is “not only outdated and unnecessary but corrosive to the appearance of journalistic independence.”

Yup, “journalistic independence” = subservience to the MAGA agenda.

While both public media outlets receive a small portion of their funding from federal sources, PBS is set to take a larger hit. The broadcaster relies on federal funds for about 16% of its overall budget.

Somewhat related to the above, President Trump wrote on Truth Social this week:

“Many of our allies and friends are celebrating May 8th as Victory Day, but we did more than any other Country, by far, in producing a victorious result on World War II.  I am hereby renaming May 8th as Victory Day for World War II and November 11th as Victory Day for World War I.  We won both Wars, nobody was close to us in terms of strength, bravery, or military brilliance, but we never celebrate anything – That’s because we don’t have leaders, anymore, that know how to do so!  We are going to start celebrating our victories again!”

Par-tay!!! 

–The Associated Press reported that detailed Army plans for a potential military parade on President Trump’s birthday in June call for more than 6,600 soldiers, at least 150 vehicles, 50 helicopters, seven bands and possibly a couple thousand civilians. 

The plans, dated April 29 and 30, have not been publicly released. They represent the Army’s most recent blueprint for its long-planned 250th anniversary festival on the National Mall and the newly added element – a large military parade that Trump has long wanted but is still being discussed.

Such a parade, it if went off, would cost $10s of millions.  They thought about this during Trump’s first term, and it was pulled because of the costs and potential damage to major roadways from the tanks.

But this just in….the parade is on!!!  June 14.

—Spain and Portugal were slowly returning to normal by Tuesday following a massive blackout Monday impacting millions across the Iberian Peninsula, with many questions remaining about the cause.

In Madrid, urban trains were slowly returning to regular service, while Portugal said power had been restored for all users.

In a speech late Monday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the government isn’t ruling anything out after the nation was left reeling by the sudden outage Monday, which caused massive disruption to public transport, phone services and airports.

—An F/A-18 fighter jet slipped off the hanger deck of the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman on Monday, the Navy said.  The incident occurred as sailors were towing the aircraft into place in the hangar bay of the carrier.

The crew members who were in the pilot seat of the Super Hornet and on the small towing tractor both jumped out before the jet and the tug went into the Red Sea.

Fighter jets are routinely towed around the hangar deck to park them where they are needed for any flight operation or other work.  But in this case, the Truman was carrying out an “evasive maneuver” that sent the Hornet sliding off the deck and to the bottom.

About the evasive maneuver: “You typically do a series of alternating 30- to 40-degree turns.  Each takes about 30 seconds each way, but the turn starts sharply. It’s like riding in a zig-zagging car,” Carl Schuster, a former Navy captain, told CNN.  “The ship leans about 10 to 15 degrees into the turn” if the ship is moving at maximum speed, he said.

It’s unclear whether there will be an effort to recover the jet, which costs $67 million, though the Navy wouldn’t want the jet to fall into the wrong hands due to the sensitive nature of the aircraft.

The Truman has been deployed to the Middle East for months and recently has been involved in stepped-up military operations against the Yemen-based Houthi rebels.

The carrier and its strike group have been involved in several high-profile incidents in recent months.  In December, two U.S. Navy pilots in a Super Hornet were shot down by the guided missile cruiser Gettysburg in a “friendly fire” incident after taking off from the Truman while operating in the Middle East.

In February, the carrier collided with a civilian merchant vessel while operating in the Mediterranean.  No injuries were reported.  The carrier underwent repairs, and the Navy relieved the commanding officer, Capt. Dave Snowden, one week after the collision due to a “loss of confidence in his ability to command,” the Navy said at the time.

—Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. intends to shift the way vaccines are tested, a move that the agency said will increase transparency but that medical experts fear could limit access to vaccines and undermine the public’s trust in immunization depending on its implementation.

The potential change outlined in a statement says all new vaccines will be required to undergo placebo testing, a procedure in which some people receive the vaccine and others an inert substance – such as a saline shot – before the results are compared.

“All new vaccines will undergo safety testing in placebo-controlled trials prior to licensure – a radical departure from past practices,” an HHS spokesperson told the Washington Post in response to questions about Kennedy’s comments on measles vaccines and general vaccine policy.

Vaccines for new pathogens are often tested this way.  But for well-researched diseases, such as measles and polio, public health experts say it makes little sense to do that and can be unethical, because the placebo group would not receive a known effective intervention.

HHS has not clarified for which vaccines the testing would apply, but it indicated it wouldn’t apply to the flu vaccine, which is updated year to year.

Kennedy has long disparaged vaccines and has previously called for placebo testing for vaccines that are approved for use.

—Temperatures in central and southern Pakistan rose to 118 degrees Fahrenheit last weekend and were forecast to climb further, possibly nearing the global April record of 122.

I just plugged in Nawabshah, a city in southern Pakistan, into weather.com and indeed it hit 119 on Tuesday and Wednesday, after hitting 118 Monday.

The temps match the rising tensions in the region.

—We had another stormy week in the central Plains, Southeast and Midwest, and now it’s targeting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Crappy weekend coming up, sports fans.  The weather forecast for Churchill Downs and tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby looks awful. 

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $3236…another ugly week…
Oil $58.30…yuck, if you are a roughneck…concerned about keeping your job….

Bitcoin: $96,980 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.18; Diesel: $3.55 [$3.67 – $4.00 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 4/28-5/2

Dow Jones  +3.0%  [41317]
S&P 500  +2.9%  [5686]
S&P MidCap  +3.5%
Russell 2000  +3.2%
Nasdaq  +3.4%  [17977]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-5/2/25

Dow Jones  -2.9%
S&P 500  -3.3%
S&P MidCap  -6.1%
Russell 2000  -9.4%
Nasdaq  -6.9%

Bulls 28.8…up from a 2008 low of 23.5
Bears 32.7

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore