For the week 5/26-5/30

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,362

It’s a new day at StocksandNews.  Nothing like rebooting at age 67.  Special thanks to Mark B. of Myth MVP (the site designer and manager) as we work through the inevitable issues remaining with a site such as this.

And I’m going to be launching a little video, Monday through Fridays, by 5:00 p.m. ET, the purpose to give a comment or two on the market close and any big issues of the day, and I’m going to have some fun with a little music in the front and back.  I know to keep it short, unlike these columns.  So around June 10 for that.

For now, it was a week of trade whiplash with various court rulings, creating even more uncertainty for businesses, both large and small.

But at the same time, to me, the most important story, especially in terms of potential global impact, remains Russia and Ukraine (that is until China invades Taiwan), and these days, it often starts with a post from President Trump.

To wit….

Trump on Truth Social, Sunday:

“I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!  He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers.  Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever.  I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!  Likewise, President Zelenskyy is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop. This is a War that would never have started if I were President. This is Zelenskyy’s, Putin’s, and Biden’s War, not ‘Trump’s,’ I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred.”

A totally insane, nonsensical rant…one of many.

Or as the Wall Street Journal editorialized:

“Mr. Trump may be the only person in the world still surprised by how Mr. Putin is behaving. The Russian is the same man he’s been for two decades, bent on reconstituting as much of the old Soviet empire as he can get away with.  Ukraine is his obsession.  He’s not going to modify his ambitions merely because Mr. Trump alternates between begging for peace and scolding outbursts on social media.”

Trump on Truth Social, Tuesday:

“What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD.  He’s playing with fire!”

The post followed Trump’s suggestion Sunday that he might be open to sanctions against Russia, a significant shift after months in which he had been so cautious about pressuring Putin that he even exempted the country from tariffs that he imposed on most of the rest of the world.

But the rest of the week, Trump didn’t appear prepared to impose more sanctions, saying Wednesday that it would impede peace talks…peace talks that are really nonexistent.

For years, Trump has heralded his close relationship with Putin, speaking of the “trust” that he believes exists between the two, while blaming Ukraine for getting invaded and blasting President Biden for allowing it – all while minimizing Putin’s central role in the war.

As the Wall Street Journal editorialized in a separate piece:

“Ukraine has been able to block most of Mr. Putin’s recent barrages of drones and missiles.  But as its defenses wane, Ukraine will have to choose between defending its civilians in cities or its forces on the front lines.  Mr. Trump is worried about needless deaths, and rightly so. Those deaths will increase if he fails to rearm Ukraine.”

David Ignatius / Washington Post:

“(Trump) could impose sanctions he has threatened for months – and show Russian President Vladimir Putin that he means business about stopping what he calls a ‘bloodbath.’  Tragically, if he doesn’t, his most important foreign policy initiative will probably collapse – with violent aftershocks that could plague his entire term.

“It’s crunch time for Trump on Ukraine. After his phone call with Putin (a week ago) Monday, Trump tried to declare victory and hand off the peace negotiations to Russia and Ukraine.  That’s like telling David and Goliath to be friends, and a recipe for more death. Trump can’t blame this diplomatic disaster on former president Joe Biden. It’s on him.

“A review of Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts tells a troubling story. He clearly understands the immense suffering of this war, and he has repeatedly pledged to end it.  But his scattershot diplomacy has led to a series of false starts.  He makes proposals but doesn’t follow through. He warns Putin to compromise but does nothing when the Russian leader refuses.  He pressures Ukraine, the victim, but not Russia, the attacker….

“Negotiations of some sort will no doubt resume.  Russia will deliver a paper, and Ukraine, Europe and the United States will respond. But the missiles will keep landing on Kyiv, and the bloodbath that Trump deplores will continue.

“Sometimes diplomatic history is ambiguous. But the results of the Ukraine negotiations are crystal clear.  Russia, the aggressor, has refused to stop fighting until it gets what it wants.  And Trump, the attempted peacemaker, has so far let Putin get away with it.

“Unless Trump finally delivers on his threats, he has folded his hand on what could be the most damaging failure of his presidency.”

Since taking office, Trump has not approved a single new military assistance package for Ukraine and has not said whether he will spend the $3.85 billion Congress has already authorized for Kyiv, let alone sharing military intelligence, which appears to have been stopped as well.

Wednesday, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump appeared to give Putin a deadline for ending the war – as the Kremlin revealed the Russian leader has no plans to meet with Trump.

“We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little bit differently, but it will take about a week and a half to two weeks,” Trump said.

Asked whether Putin wanted to end the war, Trump replied, “I can’t tell you that, but I’ll let you know in about two weeks.”

Valery Zaluzhny, a former top commander of Ukraine’s military who is now ambassador to Britain, last Friday issued a dire warning.

“I hope there are no more people in this room who still believe in some kind of miracle or wonder – in a white swan that will bring peace to Ukraine, restore the 1991 or 2022 borders, and bring great happiness afterward,” he told a conference of arms dealers in Kyiv.”

“As long as the enemy has the resources, the strength, and the means to strike our territory and attempt localized offensive actions, they will continue to do so,” he said. [BBC News]

More below….

—

Trump World….

—Prior to Wednesday’s big court ruling…President Trump opted to delay tariffs on the European Union until July 9, giving a reprieve to his threat for 50% tariffs on the 27-nation bloc that were set to go into effect on June 1 per his latest diatribe, posting on Truth Social:

“I received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, requesting an extension on the June 1st deadline on the 50% Tariff with respect to Trade and the European Union.  I agreed to the extension – July 9, 2025 – It was my privilege to do so. The Commission President said that talks will begin rapidly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Trump then told reporters, “She said we will get together and see if we can work something out.”

Von der Leyen said in a post on X: “Good call with @POTUS.  The EU and US share the world’s most consequential and close trade relationship.  Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively.  To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9.”

July 9, of course, represents the expiration of the general 90-day pause on all reciprocal tariffs that the president announced on April 9.  As in what was the point?  [A question already asked a zillion times since this whole tariff mess commenced.]

The EU’s trade priorities lie in industries such as steel and aluminum, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and civilian aircraft.

—

But then we had the unexpected ruling late Wednesday by the Court of International Trade (CIT) which invalidated tariffs against products from China related to fentanyl flows, as well as the broad swath of “reciprocal tariffs” imposed on April 2, “Liberation Day,” and then paused on goods from many countries.

The decision by the little-known court neuters the president’s signature trade initiative.  The “Liberation Day” tariffs had sent the markets, including bonds and the dollar into steep decline.

The stock market late Wednesday was initially relieved, but finished Thursday with minimal gains.

The president invoked a 1977 law that granted him emergency powers over the economy, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or IEEPA.

The trade court’s ruling also freezes separate tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods, which Trump imposed to coerce those governments into taking action to counter human and drug trafficking.  But import taxes on specific products such as automobiles, auto parts, steel and aluminum will remain in effect, as Trump did not use the emergency powers to implement these levies, instead relying on a 1962 trade law.

The court noted that IEEPA says the president may only use his emergency powers “to deal with an unusual and extraordinary threat with respect to which a national emergency has been declared.”

Trump has pointed to the merchandise trade deficit that the U.S. has run each year since 1975 as the “emergency” justifying his sweeping tariffs.

No other president has used IEEPA to impose tariffs, and Trump’s novel use of the authority sparked a wave of litigation, with small businesses across the country lining up to sue.  Multinational corporations such as Apple opted to seek relief from the White House through private meetings and phone calls.

An appeals court for the federal circuit on Thursday then ordered a temporary stay that would allow tariffs to remain in effect while the court hears arguments.  Meaning the CIT injunction giving the administration 10 days to stop collecting revenue on many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs is now on hold.

The brief order from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit didn’t rule on the merits of the litigation.  Such stays are common in emergency appeals.  The court then asked a group of companies that challenged the tariffs to file a brief before June 5 laying out their arguments, and directed the Justice Department to reply by June 9.  The order indicates the appeal will be heard by the full court, with 11 active judges participating.

In effect, this keeps the status quo in place until the Federal Circuit can review the briefs from both sides.  It has vowed to move quickly.

White House spokesman Kush Desai called the ruling a “positive development for America’s industries and workers.”  He added, “Regardless of the developments of this litigation, the President will continue to use all tools at his disposal to advance trade policy that works for all Americans.”

The uncertainty is unlikely to ease.  The administration then said Thursday it would appeal to the Supreme Court on Friday if it was not granted “at least interim relief.”  [Appeals from the Court of International Trade are heard by the Federal Circuit, and any further challenges are then heard by the Supremes.]

A separate federal judge in Washington, D.C. on Thursday joined the CIT in holding that Trump’s tariffs were unlawful.

The administration has other options at their disposal to impose levies, so this is not the end of the policy by any means.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“White House officials are attacking the trade court’s ruling as liberal judicial overreach, though the three judges were Reagan, Obama and Trump appointees.  On Thursday the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit put a stay on the trade court’s ruling while it considers Mr. Trump’s emergency appeal.  Meanwhile, a separate federal judge also ruled the tariffs illegal under IEEPA.

“The White House boasts it will win at the Supreme Court, but our reading of the trade court’s opinion suggests the opposite….

“Mr. Trump has other laws he can use to impose tariffs, though most are more limited than his emergency claims. The most expansive is Section 338 of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which lets a President impose duties up to 50% on countries found to discriminate against the U.S.  But no President has ever done so.

“Mr. Trump would be wiser to heed the trade court’s ruling as the political gift it is and liberate his Presidency and the economy from his destructive tariff obsessions.”

Thursday night, Trump posted an unbelievably long screed on Truth Social, that started out….

“The U.S. Court of International Trade incredibly ruled against the United States of America on desperately needed Tariffs but, fortunately, the full 11 Judge Panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court has just stayed the order by the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade. Where do these initial three judges come from?  How is it possible for them to have potentially done such damage to the United States of America?  Is it purely a hatred of ‘TRUMP?’  What other reason could it be? I was new to Washington, and it was suggested that I use The Federalist Society as a recommending source on Judges.  I did so, openly and freely, but then realized that they were under the thumb of a real ‘sleazebag’ named Leonard Leo, a bad person who, in his own way, probably hates America, and obviously has his own separate ambitions…”

It goes on and on and on…Leonard Leo being the former head of the Federalist Society who advised the president on Supreme Court picks.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks with China are “a bit stalled,” and that a call between President Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping may be needed for the world’s two largest economies to reach a deal.

“I would say that they are a bit stalled,” Bessent said.  He said he believes more talks will happen with Chinese officials “in the next few weeks.”  Still, Bessent said he sees the personal involvement of both country leaders as essential.

“I think that given the magnitude of the talks, given the complexity, that this is going to require both leaders to weigh in with each other,” the treasury secretary said.

The last time the two presidents spoke was in January, days ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

Trump then posted the following on Truth Social Friday morning:

“Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger! The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World.  We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them.  Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, ‘civil unrest.’ I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us.  I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual. Everybody was happy!  That is the good news!!!  The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US.  So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”

It was unclear what President Trump was really talking about.  Then late today we learned it might have to do with rare-earth minerals, and withholding same.

–I discuss the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” down below, but in an interview for CBS’ “Sunday Morning,” Elon Musk expressed his dissatisfaction, saying it undercut his efforts to slash government spending.

Musk, who announced he’s stepping back from his Department of Government Efficiency – DOGE – said he was “disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”

Musk seemed to echo the concerns of some Republicans in the House and Senate who believe the legislation costs too much and demand more spending reductions.

“We are so far away from an acceptable bill, it’s hard to say,” said Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) when asked when his chamber could complete its work.

“I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful,” Musk said in an excerpt released ahead of the full interview before its broadcast this weekend.  “But I don’t know if it can be both. My personal opinion.”

Musk then said Wednesday that his time as formal adviser to President Trump is coming to a close, raising questions about the future of DOGE.

“As my scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President @realDonaldTrump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending,” Musk posted on X.  “The @DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government.”

Trump originally gave the DOGE effort until July 4, 2026, to find what Musk originally promised would be $2 trillion in savings.  Musk later downgraded that ambition to $1 trillion – and then even further to $150 billion.  And when you consider early retirement and severance, at least the first year the actual savings are minimal.

Musk’s status as a temporary government official was set to run out as soon as May 30, although this was somewhat flexible.

Aside from his “Big, Beautiful Bill” comment, Tesla Inc. railed against “abruptly ending” the U.S. energy tax credits, which the EV maker has benefited from over the last few years.  Many congressional Republicans have pushed for the rollback of certain clean energy and solar tax credits as a way to minimize the impacts of the tax and spending bill.

–You know that big, beautiful 747 President Trump accepted from Qatar?  According to the Washington Post (and Defense One): “After Trump toured the jet, Air Force officials reviewed the aircraft and found that it was ‘very poorly maintained’ and would require $1.5 billion just to bring it up to satisfactory maintenance conditions,” the Post reports.  “To then remove the military gear and convert it for civilian use after Trump leaves office could cost an estimated $500 million, said two people familiar with the matter.”

Trump can choose to waive certain safety and technical requirements in order to use the aircraft sooner, and I’m guessing he will do just that.

By the way, there are still a bunch of legal issues to hash out between the U.S. and Qatar.  One sticking point: “Qatar is insisting that a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Doha specify that the aircraft’s transfer was initiated by the Trump administration and that Qatar is not responsible for any future transfers of the plane’s ownership,” officials familiar with the developments told the Post.

This isn’t likely to scuttle the deal, but it calls into question the administration’s claims how the deal originated.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

On the budget front…two of the Senate’s staunchest fiscal conservatives said on Sunday that they would try to force significant changes to the bill passed by the House last week to deliver President Trump’s domestic agenda, signaling we still have a long ways to go before the “Big Beautiful Bill” makes it to the president’s desk.

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said on CNN that he saw the opportunity Republicans now have – with control of the House, Senate and White House – as “our only chance” to reset to “a reasonable prepandemic level of spending.”

Sen. Johnson accused the House of rushing through the process of putting the bill together and of approving legislation that would ultimately add to the deficit.  And he suggested that enough of his colleagues in the Senate felt the same way to be able to enact major changes.

“I think we have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit,” Johnson said.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, another fiscal conservative, criticized the House package, saying on “Fox News Sunday” that it lacked concrete measures to reduce the ballooning national debt.  He said that the package was “not a serious proposal,” and that Republicans should cut deeper into major drivers of the debt, including Medicaid, Social Security and food assistance programs.

“Somebody has to stand up and yell: ‘The emperor has no clothes,’” Paul said.  “Conservatives do need to stand up and have their voices heard.”

Speaker Mike Johnson has warned that any major changes could put the support of budget hawks in the House, already tenuous, in jeopardy.

“We’ve got to pass it one more time to ratify their changes in the House,” Johnson said on CNN on Sunday.  “And I have a very delicate balance here, a very delicate equilibrium that we’ve reached over a long period of time.  It’s best not to meddle with it too much.”

Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal

“Only two men will be able to look back with real satisfaction on the role they played in the passage last week of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the House’s attempt at implementing most of President Trump’s fiscal agenda.

“The first is Speaker Mike Johnson, who again showed that there may be no more proficient cat-herder in the country.  Leading a fractious Republican caucus that enjoys – if that’s the word – a majority of a mere handful over a mostly united Democratic opposition, and under threat for more than 18 months that one false move would cost him his job, Mr. Johnson prevailed again.  The speaker has compared himself to Moses, leading his harried tribe through the Red Sea.  A better analogy might be Jason, repeatedly piloting his Argonauts between the Scylla of Trumpian disapproval and the Charybdis of popular distrust.

“The second is Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R., N.Y.), who fell asleep in the small hours while the vote was being taken, according to Mr. Johnson, and missed the final roll call.  Having been in a state of unconsciousness when the measure passed may save him from having played his part in a monstrous act of economic mismanagement.

“The bill’s many defects have been well rehearsed on these and other pages: the fiscal incontinence that will see the addition of $3 trillion to the government’s $36 trillion in debt in the next 10 years; the failure to produce anything more than an exiguous reversal of the spending extravaganza of the past five years, with cuts of less than 2% of projected outlays over the next decade; the re-complexification of the tax code that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs act had admirably simplified, with a smorgasbord of new deductions and exemptions; the reward for Democrat-run states’ profligacy represented by the quadrupling of the state and local tax deduction. It is no golden fleece that Jason and his crew have brought home.

“But the specifics of the measure are less important than the overall picture of political dysfunction and economic ineptitude.  Instead of doing its part to facilitate the better parts of Mr. Trump’s economic ideas and acting as constitutional ballast against the bad parts, Congress is diluting the good stuff and doubling down on the madness. So bigger tax cuts driven by the pursuit of narrow short-term political advantage, allied to minimal spending restraint, are unfolding alongside the administration’s ruinous (and almost certainly unlawful) global trade and international economic policies.

“All of this casts bigger doubt on the durability of America’s unique model of market-driven, innovation-led, private-sector generated growth.  We are witnessing all the signs of advancing economic derangement at the public-sector level: policy unpredictability, fiscal disorder and erratic interventionism on the shifting whims of a mercurial leader.  This great republic is moving steadily up the steep curve of the banana.

“We have a president who makes radical changes to tariffs based on economically dim views about international trade, who then changes and unilaterally changes them again with no notice or consultation, who believes he has the authority to tell companies like Walmart what they should be charging their customers and companies like Apple exactly where and how they should source their production, who seems intent on discouraging the brightest minds in the world from coming to the U.S., where they have contributed to America’s world-beating success in science, technology, innovation and entrepreneurship for decades.

“We have a Congress that unilaterally surrenders its constitutional responsibility over much of this policymaking and weighs in happily to compound the problem with politically expedient and economically reckless contribution of its own.

“And yes, before you object, this after four years of a Democratic administration with a complaisant Congress that seized the opportunity presented by a dementia-disabled president to advance its own radical and economically ruinous goals….

“For the past decade, American business has enhanced its advantage over the rest of the world, innovating in artificial intelligence, biotech and finance, boosting its productivity.  Most of that has been achieved not because of policy but in spite of it.  If investors begin to see American private-sector Gullivers tied down by political Lilliputians, our economic powerhouse constrained by erratic, unstable and obstructive government, the threat to American supremacy is real.  Lawmakers may want to stay awake for that.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari (non-voting member of the FOMC this year) said in a closely watched speech from Tokyo Tuesday that until there is more clarity on how higher tariffs affect inflation, he warned against “looking through” the impact of such supply price shocks.

The shock to the economy from Trump’s sweeping tariffs, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, are forcing central banks to decide whether to focus on fighting inflation or supporting economic activity, he said.

In an ongoing “healthy debate” within the Fed, some policymakers have called for “looking through” – or disregarding for now – the impact of tariffs as a transitory inflation shock, thereby prioritizing support for economic growth by cutting interest rates, he said.

Others are against ignoring as temporary the tariff-induced inflation on the view U.S. trade negotiations are unlikely to be resolved quickly, Kashkari said at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference.  He included himself in that category.

“It may take months or years for negotiations to fully conclude, and there could be tit-for-tat tariff increases as trading partners respond to one another,” he said.

The full effect of tariffs applied to intermediate goods will take time to pass through to final prices, he added.

“These arguments support a stance of maintaining the policy rate, which is likely only modestly restrictive now, until there is more clarity on the path for tariffs and their impact on prices and economic activity,” Kashkari said.

Massive shocks create uncertainty for policymakers, both in understanding the underlying dynamics of the shocks themselves and in determining the appropriate policy response, Kashkari said.

“In such moments, taking time to get more information to help inform the collective judgments of policymakers may be the best of an imperfect set of options,” he said.

Wednesday, we had a release of the Fed’s minutes from its May 6-7 meeting, and they highlighted the overwhelming support among officials to hold off on cutting rates until they had more clarity about President Trump’s policies and how the economy was responding to whipsawing tariffs, tax cuts, immigration restrictions and other cornerstones of his administration’s agenda.

“Participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlooks for inflation and economic activity,” the minutes said.

Uncertainty about the outlook had become “unusually elevated,” officials said, “making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer.”

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the May meeting, there was “no cost” to the central bank’s waiting to make a move.

And Wednesday’s court ruling on tariffs only bolsters the argument to wait for more clarity.

Powell then met with President Trump on Thursday at the White House, at the latter’s invitation, and Trump told Powell that he believes the Fed is making a mistake by not lowering interest rates, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a briefing after.

That “is putting us at an economic disadvantage to China and other countries, and the president’s been very vocal about that, both publicly and, now I can reveal, privately,” she added.

The Fed said in a statement the two met and discussed economic developments.

“Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook,” the Fed said.

Powell also told the president Fed officials will make decisions based solely on “careful, objective, and non-political analysis,” the central bank said.  Leavitt confirmed the statement’s accuracy.

Well, Friday, the Fed got a report on its favorite inflation barometer, the April personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) and it was right in line, and tame…0.1% over March, and 2.1% year-over-year.  On core, ex-food and energy, the numbers were also exactly as expected, 0.1%, 2.5%, the latter the lowest since spring 2021.  All good.  But this was April.  We will finally begin to see the impact of the tariffs, if any, come May and June.

Separately, April personal income rose a strong 0.8%, best since May 2021, and consumption rose 0.2%, in line but weaker than the prior month’s 0.7% increase (think looming tariffs).

We also had our second look at first-quarter GDP, and it ticked up to -0.2%.  But the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the second quarter rose to 3.8% today, up from 2.2% earlier in the week.

Separately, April durable goods fell 6.3%, but was up 0.2% ex-transportation.  And an early look at May manufacturing, the Chicago PMI, was awful, 40.5 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), and well below consensus of 45.0.

A reading from the Conference Board on consumer confidence in May, however, surged after five straight months of declines as President Trump dialed back his aggressive stance on tariffs against China.

The latest reading was 98, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected.  The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 in May, far above the 55.4 mark in the month prior.  This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009.

And lastly, the March Case-Shiller home price index presented some worrisome news, with the 20-city index down 0.1% for the month, up 4.1% year-over-year.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose a bit more to 6.89%.

Next week…ISM data and a big jobs report for May.

Europe and Asia

No major economic releases for the eurozone.  Next week it’s all about the PMI readings and another inflation report.  The European Central Bank meets on Thursday.

In Asia…nothing of consequence on the data front from China either, though May PMI readings will be released tonight.

Japan has joined a growing list of nations, including Spain and Canada, that are assembling aid plans to help blunt the domestic impact of President Trump’s tariffs.

Tuesday, the government approved a $6.3 billion spending package to “fully support” businesses and households adversely affected by the tariffs, Cabinet Secret Yoshimasa Hayashi said in a briefing.  The funds will bolster the finances of small and medium-sized businesses and subsidize household energy costs, he said.

On top of managing an expected economic slowdown caused by U.S. levies, officials are dealing with public anger over higher consumer prices and growing pressure to reduce Japan’s ballooning government debt.

Reminder, Japan is still subject to reciprocal tariffs of 24 percent on Japanese goods, which have been paused until early July.  But the country’s automotive sector, the backbone of the economy, is already reeling from a 25% tariff on finished automobiles and car parts, aside from the broad 10% on most other imports.

The Japanese Government on Tuesday then appeared prepared to adjust debt issuance following a rout in the market.

The finance ministry sent a questionnaire to market participants on Monday evening that asked for their views on issuance and the current market situation, which was an unusual move because of the timing and the wide group of people contacted.

Super-long yields have been rising globally on concerns of increased government spending, but the surge in Japan has been particularly acute as the Bank of Japan dials back its bond purchases.

But the questionnaire spurred speculation that it the MOF may reduce issuance of super-long bonds; the root cause of the recent surge in super-long-term (40-year) yields has been excess supply from the MOF, say analysts.

On the data front, April industrial production was down 0.9% over March, and April retail sales rose 0.5% over the month prior.

Street Bytes

–The market rallied bigly on the TACO trade, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” an acronym first put forward by a Financial Times reporter, Trump then calling it “nasty” when a White House reporter asked him about it Wednesday.  Trump said “It’s called negotiation.  Don’t ever say what you said. That’s a nasty question.”  But the fact is he agreed to delay implementing the 50% levies on EU goods until July 9, at the request of the EU president.  And stocks rallied the first opportunity they had after the holiday.

And then the markets faced the tariff whipsaw and dueling court rulings on same. The rest of the holiday-shortened week was tame, the Dow Jones finishing up 1.6% to 42270, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.9% and Nasdaq 2.0%.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.31%  2-yr. 3.90%  10-yr. 4.40%  30-yr. 4.92%

Bonds rallied, yields fell, the 10-year down 11 basis points, owing in no small part to a successful bond auction, meaning reception/demand was strong, and today’s tame PCE helped.

Next week the jobs report could be big.

—U.S. oil companies are cutting spending and idling drilling rigs, as Trump’s tariffs push up costs and falling crude prices squeeze profits, prompting executives to warn that a decade-long shale boom is ending, as reported by the Financial Times.

Decisions by the OPEC+ cartel to pump more oil have compounded the gloom across the U.S. oil patch, sparking fears of a new price war and prompting analysts to cut output forecasts.

“We’re on high alert at this point,” Clay Gaspar, chief executive at Devon Energy in Oklahoma City, told investors this month.  “Everything is on the table as we move into a more distressed environment.”

Trump has promised to “unleash” more drilling and production in a bid to secure U.S. “energy dominance.”   But production, which hit a record high under Joe Biden, could fall further if prices keep sinking.

The onshore U.S. oil rig count, a barometer of drilling activity, was 553 last week, down 10 since the week earlier and 26 lower than a year ago, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.  U.S. shale oil producers are slashing 2025 capital expenditures.

It can get a lot worse…and quickly.  Today, oil (West Texas Intermediate) approached $60 on rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China (owing to Trump’s accusations today) and another production hike from OPEC+, possibly, when they meet tomorrow, Saturday.  Key members Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking to regain market share and penalize members that have overproduced.

—Nvidia’s earnings report had a little of everything, but the shares rose after the company reported at the close of the market on Wednesday.  The world’s most valuable semiconductor firm beat sales expectations during its fiscal first quarter but forecast second-quarter revenue below market estimates, expecting an $8 billion hit to sales from tighter U.S. curbs on exports of its AI chips to key semiconductor market China.

Washington’s years-long efforts to thwart Beijing’s access to top-of-the-line U.S. technology have resulted in stricter restrictions on the export of Nvidia’s AI chips – stifling the company’s access to one of the largest markets for semiconductors.

New U.S. restrictions on the sale of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China, the only AI processors it could legally export to the country, prompted Nvidia to disclose in April that it expected a $5.5 billion charge, while CEO Jensen Huang had in May pegged the revenue impact related to the restrictions at about $15 billion.

On Wednesday, Nvidia said the actual first-quarter charge due to the H20 restrictions was $1 billion less than expected because it was able to reuse some materials.  It said it lost $2.5 billion in H20 sales in the first quarter and expected to miss $8 billion in the second quarter.

Though major cloud companies such as Microsoft and Alphabet have stood their ground on the billions they have earmarked this year for spending on expanding infrastructure for AI data centers, worries about such spending persist amid rapidly changing global trade policies.

On an adjusted basis, Nvidia earned 81 cents per share, and ex-the charges, 96 cents.  The consensus (though this varied widely due to the impact of restrictions on sales to China) was at about 93 cents.

Revenue of $44.1 billion for the quarter topped estimates of $43.3bn.

Data center revenue fell slightly short of estimates, coming in at $39.1 billion versus $39.2 billion estimated and $22.5bn last year.

The AI market bellwether expects revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2% in the second quarter, compared with the Street’s estimate of $45.9 billion.  The forecast includes the loss in H20 revenue of about $8 billion due to the export restrictions.

Jensen Huang remarked on the Trump administration’s ban on a less powerful version of its Hopper chips for China during a call with analysts following the earnings results:

“The platform that wins China is positioned to lead globally.

“Today, however, the $50 billion China market is effectively closed to U.S. industry.  The H20 export band ended our Hopper data center business. We cannot reduce Hopper further to comply.

“As a result, we are taking a multibillion-dollar write-off on inventory that cannot be sold or repurposed.

“We are exploring limited ways to compete, but Hopper is no longer an option. China’s AI moves on with or without U.S. chips. …The question is now whether China will have it.  It already does.

“The question is whether one of the world’s largest AI markets will run on American platforms.

“Shielding Chinese chipmakers from U.S. competition only strengthens them abroad and weakens America’s position. Export restrictions have spurred China’s innovation and scale.”

Nvidia has been finding new markets that may help offset the loss of business in China, such as recent “sovereign AI” deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Overall, Huang still sounded as bullish as ever about the future of AI, saying that as AI agents become mainstream, demand for AI computing will accelerate.  “Countries around the world are recognizing AI as essential infrastructure – just like electricity and the internet,” he said, with Nvidia at the center of it.

But Huang is also planning to sell more than $800 million of stock through planned transactions this year, the so-called Rule 10b5-1 plan that is designed to remove the appearance of bias from the knowledge of nonpublic information.

–After posting on Truth Social late last Friday afternoon that Nippon Steel had received a conditional green light from the president to take control of U.S. Steel under what he described as a partnership, key aspects of the deal still need to be worked out.

Trump defined the agreement as a partnership, spurring some confusion at the companies on Friday afternoon, according to reports.  Both Nippon and U.S. Steel were seeking more guidance from the administration about how much ownership Nippon could ultimately gain.

In the post, Trump said the partnership between the two would result in at least 70,000 jobs and add $14 billion to the U.S. economy. The bulk of that investment will occur in the next 14 months, the post said.

Major projects already pledged include equipment upgrades at plants in Gary, Ind., and near Pittsburgh.  The company has also committed to build a new steel mill at an undetermined location.

Nippon Steel and the Trump administration are working to complete a national-security agreement in the coming weeks, according to reports.

Nippon Steel would name a separate board to oversee its North American business operations, with a majority being U.S. citizens and the company’s top managers would be Americans as well.

Investors treated the announcement as though a big hurdle had been cleared.

But executives at Nippon Steel, the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker, have pushed for full ownership of U.S. Steel. They’ve argued that the large expenditures in equipment and steelmaking technology wouldn’t be possible without owning the whole company.

–Late last Friday, Boeing reached a deal with the Justice Department that would spare the company from taking criminal responsibility for a pair of deadly 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019.

Under the deal, which was staunchly opposed by many families of the victims of the fatal crashes, Boeing would admit to obstructing federal oversight, pay a fine, contribute to a fund for the families and invest in safety and quality programs.

The latest twist in a yearslong saga over the crashes reverses a different deal reached last summer, in which Boeing had agreed with the DOJ under President Biden to plead guilty to a felony charge of conspiring to defraud the Federal Aviation Administration.

Under the deal, Boeing would be required to invest about $455 million in quality and safety programs, and pay about $445 million in to a compensation fund for beneficiaries of the 346 people who died in the pair of crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia in late 2018 and early 2019.  The company would also pay a fine of $487 million, half of which it would receive credit for after an earlier fine payment.

Boeing has already invested in safety and quality programs since a panel blew off one of its planes midflight in January 2024, raising concerns about the quality of its planes.

—Airbus is warning airlines that delays in deliveries will persist for another three years as it works through a backlog of supply chain problems, industry sources said.

The cautious tone on deliveries was reinforced at a recent customer gathering in Toulouse and increases pressure on Airbus to demonstrate progress towards a goal of increasing production of its main model to 75 jets a month, they added.

“Airbus is talking about delays to aircraft in both 2027 and 2028,” a senior airline executive told Reuters, adding the delays were being communicated in piecemeal fashion every few months.

Another source said aircraft due for delivery later this decade had already been penciled in for a six-month delay.

“There is no real sign of improvement,” said a third person following a recent customer presentation.

“We are working together with suppliers to mitigate the impact of the current situation on our customers,” an Airbus spokesperson said.

—Southwest Airlines on Tuesday said it will charge customers $35 for one checked bag and $45 for the second, bringing an end to the airline’s longtime free luggage policy.

—Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, in a press conference in Washington on Wednesday, said the problems bedeviling the likes of Newark Liberty International Airport in recent weeks can only be solved by a complete rebuilding of the nation’s aging and obsolete network.

“We have an antiquated and old air traffic control system anywhere from 25, 35, 40 years old in some places.  It is in desperate need of a brand new build,” said Duffy.

Calling it the most critical infrastructure project in the country, Duffy said the plan was to essentially “gut the (nation’s) air traffic control system and build brand new everything.”

He acknowledged it will take a substantial amount of money.

“We have the plan. We are ready to go. We just need the Congress to step up,” he said.  “I’m concerned that we could have more Newarks.”

Duffy mentioned they have been progressing on a new fiber optic data line between Philadelphia and New York over the past month, and that runway repair work at Newark appeared ahead of schedule.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

5/29…107 percent of 2024 levels
5/28…91
5/27…90
5/26…116
5/25…101
5/24…81
5/23…104…3rd-highest gross number ever…3,009,812…Friday before long weekend…
5/22…114

—Tesla’s sales in Europe fell 49% in April from a year earlier, even though battery-electric car sales rose 27.8%, as the U.S. EV maker’s upgrade of its Model Y shows little sign of reviving the brand’s fortunes in the region.

Overall car sales in Europe dipped 0.3%, with the strongest growth coming from electric and plug-in hybrid cars, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association showed.

Tesla’s European sales fell for the fourth straight month, as a backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political views combined with a tepid reception for the new Model Y and heightened competition from European and Chinese players.

Tesla’s European market share dropped to just 0.7% from 1.3% a year ago.

EV sales in the bloc – whether BEV (battery-electric), HEV (hybrid-electric), or PHEV (plug-in hybrid) – accounted for 59.2% of passenger car registrations in April, up from 47.7% in the previous year.

Meanwhile, Tesla has a new problem in China.  Chinese consumer electronics maker Xiaomi launched its YU7 electric vehicle last weekend.  It’s a crossover-sized all-electric car targeting Tesla’s best-selling Model Y.

“We expect YU7 would significantly erode Tesla’s Model Y’s China market share,” wrote Citi auto analyst Jeff Chung in a Sunday report.

YU7 will be priced from about $35,000 to $45,000.  The Model Y in China ranges from about $37,000 to $44,000.  The Y standard per-charge range comes in at about 360 miles per charge, about 100 miles less than the YU7.

Meanwhile, Tesla is banking on the launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June to unlock a new wave of growth for the auto maker.

But back to China, Chinese EV king BYD Co. saw its stock fall, and take other Chinese EV stocks lower, as investors digested the auto giant’s sweeping price cuts of as much as 34% late last week.

BYD is offering the discounts on 22 of its electric and plug-in hybrid models that it sells in China until the end of June.  While EV sales have overall reached new annual highs, growth has been decelerating, as Tesla knows all too well.

BYD has a model, the Seagull hatchback, that has garnered global attention for its sub-$10,000 price tag, and now that too has been pared, at least temporarily.  Yes, $10,000.  You can see why this scares the crap out of automakers worldwide.  [And why you won’t see BYD in the U.S. anytime soon.  But to be fair, the Seagull under $10,000 is really a stripped down model, with Flintstones’ power…just kidding, President Xi!]

—Salesforce lifted its full-year outlook as its quarterly earnings exceeded analysts’ expectations.  The cloud software giant raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 to between $41 billion and $41.3 billion, up from $40.5 billion to $40.9 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share estimate to $11.27 to $11.33, compared to $11.09 to $11.17 previously.  The Street had called for $40.79 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $11.15.

Salesforce reported first-quarter revenue of $9.83 billion, up 8% year-over-year and above consensus.  Adjusted net income of $2.5 billion, or $2.58 per share, rose from $2.41 billion, or $2.44 per share, in the year-ago quarter, beating estimates.  The company gave strong guidance for the second quarter.

The results came a day after Salesforce announced it would acquire Informatica (INFA), an AI-powered data management software provider, for $8 billion.  The deal is expected to close early in Salesforce’s 2027 fiscal year, which begins in February 2026.

CRM shares fell 5% mostly on concerns over the acquisition and a big downgrade as a result.

—HP Inc. cut its annual profit forecast on Wednesday as it expects a moderation in PC market growth at a time when the global economic environment remains volatile, sending its shares down sharply.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and associated inflationary pressures will negatively impact demand for personal computers in the following quarters in 2025, according to research firm IDC.

HP is seeing the biggest cost impact in its Personal Systems segment, CFO Karen Parkhill said.  “The tariff-related costs are due to both the actual cost of the tariffs, as well as the increased investment* that we are making to offset them.”

*As in moving manufacturing isn’t cheap.

HP now expects fiscal 2025 adjusted profit between $3.00 and $3.30 per share, down from its prior forecast of $3.45 to $3.75 per share.  Analysts had expected a full-year profit of $3.49 per share.

The company’s second quarter was “impacted by higher-than-expected tariffs that we were not able to fully mitigate,” HP CEO Enrique Lores said.

“We have recently increased production in Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico and the U.S., and by the end of June, we expect nearly all our products sold in North America will be built outside of China,” Lores added.

For the second quarter ended April 30, HP reported revenue of $13.22 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $13.14bn.

Adjusted earnings came in at 71 cents per share, missing estimates of 80 cents.

Sales at HP’s Personal Systems segment – home to its desktop and notebook PCs – rose 7% from a year earlier, while sales at its Printing unit fell 4% in the quarter.

The PC maker forecast third-quarter adjusted profit per share between 68 cents and 80 cents, compared with estimates of 90 cents.

Remember my HP printer cartridge example from just last week?  CEO Lores noted on the earnings call that “we’re going to be taking some targeted price increases… Most of our competitors in print and PCs have already done the same.”

—Best Buy slashed its full-year comparable sales and profit forecasts on Thursday amid concerns that U.S. tariffs would weigh on consumer demand for big-ticket items such as appliances, gaming consoles and home theaters.

Shares of the top U.S. electronics retailer finished Thursday down 7% as it also posted a bigger drop in first-quarter sales than analysts had expected.

Best Buy relies heavily on imports from China – which make up about 30% to 35% of its overall goods – for products such as furniture, audio equipment, cameras and drones.

It made adjustments to prices and promotions on its assortment, but plans to remain “competitively priced,” company executives said.

Best Buy now expects fiscal 2026 comparable sales in the down 1%-to-up 1% range, compared to its prior expectation of flat to up 2%.  Adjusted profit per share is forecast between $6.15 and $6.30, below its prior target of $6.20 to $6.60 per share.

Same-store sales declined 0.7% for the quarter ended May 3, compared to an expectation of a 0.6% drop.

—A 37-year-old cryptocurrency investor was charged on Saturday with kidnapping a man and beating, shocking and torturing him for weeks inside a luxury townhouse in downtown Manhattan, all in a scheme to get the man’s Bitcoin password, authorities said.

The crypto investor, John Woeltz, was taken into custody last Friday after the man managed to escape the townhouse and notify the police.  Woeltz was arraigned Saturday in Manhattan criminal court and charged with assault, kidnapping, unlawful imprisonment and criminal possession of a gun.  He was ordered held without bail and forced to surrender his passport, the Manhattan district attorney’s office said.

Another person, Beatrice Folchi, was also arrested on Friday and charged with kidnapping and unlawful imprisonment, but she was quickly released and her prosecution was deferred.  A third “unapprehended male” was also mentioned and that individual, Swiss cryptocurrency investor William Duplessie, later turned himself in and will also be charged with kidnapping and false imprisonment.

The 28-year-old victim was from Italy. He arrived in New York May 6 and showed up at the home where for weeks Woeltz and his accomplice tried to extort him.

—Booz Allen, which makes 98% of its $12 billion in annual revenue from government-related work, announced late last Friday it was cutting 2,500 jobs due to the administration’s crackdown on federal contracting.

The General Services Administration is pushing consulting firms to justify work and propose savings.  IBM and Accenture are also seeing contract impacts.

The shares fell 16% on the news as Booz Allen executives told investors that the firm is seeing a slowdown in some government spending and that it expected its business to be under pressure in the first half of the fiscal year.

The layoffs will amount to 7% of its workforce, largely in a division that deals with civilian government agencies.

—Macy’s cut its annual profit forecast on Wednesday as the top U.S. department store operator navigates tariff-led uncertainty and cautious spending on apparel and accessories.

The company expects 2025 adjusted profit per share to be between $1.60 and $2.00, compared with its prior target of between $2.05 and $2.25.  Analysts were expecting annual adjusted profit of $1.93 per share.

Several companies have withdrawn or lowered their revenue and profit targets for the year, and retailers, in particular, have been bracing for a significant impact on their supply chain costs, as well as on demand due to President Trump’s sweeping duties.

Macy’s is also bracing for more competition from discount stores and big-box retailers as shoppers seek cheaper non-essential products amid a jump in inflation expectations following the tariffs.

CEO Tony Spring has sharpened the focus on Bluemercury, which sells beauty and skincare products, and Bloomingdale’s, which sells luxury apparel and accessories, as off-price rivals put the squeeze on the company’s namesake banner.

That helped Macy’s beat estimates for first-quarter net revenue, and maintain its annual net sales forecast of $21.0 billion to $21.4 billion.

Net sales at Macy’s have fallen for 12 straight quarters, compared with four years of positive sales at Bluemercury.

Net sales for the three months ended May 3 were $4.6 billion, topping expectations of $4.5 billion, while the gross margin was flat at 39.2%.

—Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. reported fiscal first-quarter profit of $264.3 million, with adjusted earnings of $3.37 per share, meeting the Street’s expectations.  The sporting goods retailer posted revenue of $3.17 billion in the period, surpassing consensus.

Dick’s reaffirmed its outlook and expects full-year earnings to be $13.80 to $14.40 per share, with revenue in the range of $13.6 billion to $13.9 billion. Comparable sales growth is forecast to be in the range of 1.0% to 3.0%.

CEO Lauren Hobart said in a statement: “We are very pleased with our first quarter results.  Our performance demonstrates the momentum and strength of our long-term strategies and the consistency of our execution.”

Regarding the recent announcement it was acquiring Foot Locker, Ed Stack, executive chairman: “Earlier this month, we announced our plans to acquire Foot Locker, a move that represents a truly exciting and transformational moment for DICK’S.  For many years we’ve admired Foot Locker’s brand and the powerful community they’ve built in sneaker culture. By bringing our two great brands together, we see the opportunity to create a global leader in the sports retail industry by serving a broader set of athletes.”

—Trump Media & Technology Group is setting up a Bitcoin treasury and will buy the digital currency with the money it raises in a $2.5 billion sale of stock and convertible notes.

CEO Devin Nunes said cryptocurrency would be a crucial asset for the company, which owns Truth Social and counts President Trump as its biggest owner.

–A month into negotiations between Paramount Global and President Trump to settle his lawsuit against CBS News, the parties remain far apart on terms.

Paramount Global in recent days has offered $15 million to settle, according to the Wall Street Journal, with Trump’s team wanting more than $25 million, plus an apology from CBS News.

This is all about the “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which the lawsuit alleges the network deceitfully edited.

—The Memorial Day weekend saw a record box office haul, led by Walt Disney’s live action “Lilo & Stitch” and Paramount’s final “Mission: Impossible,” starring Tom Cruise.  Lilo & Stitch not only won over North America, it was the top weekend film around the world, according to Comscore.

Domestic audiences flocked to “Lilo & Stitch” for a four-day box office haul of $183 million.  International audiences added another $158.7 million, for a $341.7 million global weekend.

“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” took in $77.5 million domestically and $127 million globally, for an estimated $204 million over the four-day weekend, the best “Mission: Impossible” opening in the franchise’s history, with its opening in China still to come.

Overall domestic box office sales for the holiday weekend of more than $326.7 million breaks the previous record of $314.3 million in 2013.  Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian called it a “monumental comeback” after Memorial Day Weekend 2024 sold $132.4 million over four days.

As Hollywood recovers from actors’ and writers’ strikes, domestic box-office sales of $3.1 billion this year through Sunday, are 22% higher than they were this time last year, Comscore said.

—Broadway’s 2024-2025 season grossed $1.89 billion across all productions, marking the highest season on record and a recovery from the pandemic.

The gross totals are up 23 percent from last season, and, significantly, the numbers also come in above Broadway’s 2018-2019 season, which had held the record for $1.83 billion in gross revenue.

Attendance for the 2024-2025 season came in at 14.66 million, below the 14.77 million from the 2018-2019 season, ergo, increased tickets prices played a part in the higher grosses this past season.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine, Part II:

—Russia launched more than 900 drones over a three-day period ending early Monday morning.  The strikes on Saturday night killed at least 12 people, Ukrainian officials said, including three children in a region west of Kyiv.

Sounds of explosions boomed throughout the night Kyiv and the surrounding area as Ukrainian air defense forces persisted for hours in efforts to shoot down the drones and missiles.  At least four people were killed and 16 were injured in the capital overnight into Sunday, according to Ukraine’s security service.

Fires broke out in homes and businesses, set off by falling drone debris.

Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said on X that Russia had launched “hundreds” of drones and missiles, adding: “A difficult Sunday morning in Ukraine after a sleepless night. The most massive Russia air attack in many weeks lasted all night.”

The night before, Russia launched 250 drones and 14 ballistic missiles against Kyiv alone.  Thirteen were killed in attacks across Ukraine.

“With each such attack, the world becomes more certain that the cause of prolonging the war lies in Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X.

Zelensky also said separately in a statement: “Over 900 attack drones launched against Ukraine in just three days, along with ballistic and cruise missiles.  There is no military logic in this, but it is a clear political choice of Russia – the choice to keep waging war.  Only a sense of complete impunity can allow Russia to carry out such strikes and constantly increase their scale.”

Putin’s action shows he “despise the world” and are proof that Ukraine’s allies need to force Moscow to come to the table, he said.

Over the past week, through Monday, Russia had directed at least 1,390 drones and 94 missiles at targets across Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force said.  The attacks have killed at least 30 civilians and injured more than 163.

The campaign came a week after President Trump spoke to his good buddy Vlad the Impaler.

—Wednesday, Russian air defenses destroyed or intercepted well over 100 Ukrainian drones over various Russian regions.  Moscow Mayor Sergei Soyanin, writing on Telegram, said defense ministry units had repelled 27 drones while they were traveling towards the Russian capital.

But the number of Ukrainian drones and decoys launched into Russia is massive.  Not a lot of damage lately, but highly disruptive, because Russia shuts down mobile internet, thinking that impedes the drones, but this takes a heavy toll on the local civilian economy, disrupting businesses and services.

Persistent drone attacks stretch Russian air defense and airport operations are in near-constant disarray, which inflicts major damage of its own.

—President Zelensky said that Russia has gathered 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, but added that Kyiv had taken steps to prevent Moscow from conducting a large-scale offensive there.

The build-up comes as Russia appears to be gearing up for a summer offensive while Kyiv waits for Moscow to present a memorandum laying out its conditions to proceed with ceasefire talks.

Sumy lies across the border from Russia’s Kursk region where Ukraine previously seized and held a pocket of land for months, before being almost fully pushed out last month, although it says it still holds some areas there.

“Their largest, strongest forces are currently on the Kursk front,” Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday. “To push our troops out of the Kursk region and to prepare offensive actions against the Sumy region.”

Vladimir Putin has said he wants a “buffer zone” along Russia’s border with Ukraine.  Zelensky said he believed Russia wanted a buffer zone of about 10 kilometers.

Zelensky said he viewed Turkey, the Vatican and Switzerland as the most realistic venues for further negotiations with Russia.

—German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday that his country and other major allies are no longer imposing any range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine as it fights Russia.

Merz said the move was necessary to stop Putin from “ruthlessly bombing cities, kindergartens, hospitals and care homes.”

“We will do everything in our power to continue supporting Ukraine,” Merz said in a statement.  “This also means no longer having any range restrictions on the weapons we supply.”

Merz also pledged in a meeting with Zelensky in Berlin that Germany would send more military equipment to Kyiv.

The German Defense Ministry said the aid included cooperation in weapons construction, air-defense systems, hand-held and other weapons and financing of satellite communications. The value was roughly 5 billion euros.

After traveling the world in search of weapons for years, Zelensky said this week that Kyiv now needed some $30 billion in annual financing to fund its domestic arms production at full capacity.

—In exchange for some kind of peace in Ukraine, Russia wants NATO to agree to never accept Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or any other former Soviet republic into the alliance, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing Russian sources.

But that’s not all.  As previously stated, Putin wants to keep all currently-occupied territory inside Ukraine, as well as remaining unoccupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.  He also wants “Ukraine to be neutral, some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russia speakers in Ukraine.”

Russia also relayed a threat to Europe and Ukraine: “Peace tomorrow will be even more painful,” the sources said.

—Russia and Ukraine completed a swap of 1,000 captives each after a meeting of the two countries’ delegations in Istanbul nearly two weeks ago.

—Editorial / Washington Post

“After four months of being strung along by Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump appears to finally be opening his eyes to the Russian dictator’s villainy.  Each time Trump has tried to end the three-year war in Ukraine, including by calling for an immediate ceasefire, Putin has blocked him.  After another long weekend of Moscow bombing Kyiv, the U.S. president is considering new sanctions against Russia. Combined with stepped-up military support for Ukraine’s defense and green-lighting additional European assistance, this would be a far more effective way to resolve the conflict than anything Trump has tried so far.

“On Tuesday, he accused Putin of ‘playing with fire,’ and acknowledged that he has so far been protecting Russia.  ‘If it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia,’ Trump wrote on social media.  Although in recent weeks he’s shown flashes of irritation, Trump shifted his tone significantly on Sunday.  ‘I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,’ he said.  ‘Always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all.’

“Hours later, Russia launched its biggest drone swarm of the war.  Sunday’s bombardment included 355 drones, concluding a weekend that saw the launch of 900 drones and 69 cruise missiles.  Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said more than 80 residential buildings were damaged, including college dormitories, and civilians died across several regions, including children ages 8, 12 and 17.  Further insulting Trump, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the president’s criticisms as ‘emotional.’

“Meanwhile, conscripted Russian troops have begun what appears to be a major summer offensive along a 620-mile front line.  Alarmingly, Russia has ramped up its deployment of fiber-optic drones that cannot be disrupted by jamming systems.  These hardwired weapons have a shorter range but a longer battery life and more precise targeting ability – a critical battlefield advantage.

“What scares Ukraine more than the drones, however, is its diminishing stockpile of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems.  Ballistic missiles fired by Russia can be reliably countered only with Patriot launchers. On Saturday night, Ukraine failed to intercept nine such missile launches.   Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified last week that the United States has no more Patriots to give but has been ‘encouraging’ NATO allies to donate theirs – though they, too, are reluctant to let go of their systems….

“As long as Putin thinks he can prevail militarily, he will not cut a deal to end the war.  When Trump continues to criticize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on social media, Putin has reason to think he can drive a wedge between the U.S. and Ukraine.  And when Vice President JD Vance says ‘we’re more than open to walking away’ if a deal cannot be reached, he, too, incentivizes Russian foot-dragging.

“The U.S. should not bow to Russia’s recalcitrance and abandon peace talks.  The conflict in Ukraine is the proxy war of our time between the free world and autocratic regimes that disdain America and Europe….

“It’s no surprise that Trump has found it difficult to end the war.  No one would have been able to achieve peace within 24 hours, as he promised on the campaign trail….

“Putin hasn’t changed, but if claiming that the Russian leader has gone ‘crazy’ helps Trump save face and get tougher, that’s fine.  Putin is more likely to respond to strength than to niceties.  Trump should understand this….

“The threat of strong secondary sanctions might persuade India and China to stop buying Russian energy, weakening Russia’s war machine. Along with stricter direct sanctions against Russian leaders and greater support for Ukraine, it could force Putin to seek an end to the war.”

Israel/Gaza:

—Last weekend, an Israeli air strike hit the home of a doctor and killed nine of her 10 children, the hospital where she works in the city of Khan Younis said.

Graeme Groom, a British surgeon working in the hospital who operated on her surviving 11-year-old boy, told the BBC it was “unbearably cruel” that his mother, who spent years caring for children as a pediatrician, could lose almost all her own in a single missile strike.

Israel’s military said its aircraft had struck “a number of suspects” in Khan Younis on Friday, and “the claim regarding harm to uninvolved civilians is under review.”

The health ministry said at least 74 people had been killed by the Israeli military over the 24-hour period leading up to midday on Saturday.

The next day another 54 were killed in two separate Israeli air strikes.

—The Israeli military on Sunday said that it plans to capture 75% of the Gaza Strip within two months and push Palestinian civilians into just a quarter of the Strip’s territory as part of a new effort to rid Gaza of Hamas.

The military is also planning to roll out a new U.S.-backed program to distribute aid in Gaza as early as Monday.  It has built three complexes in southern Gaza and one in central Gaza where hundreds of American contractors will distribute aid to Palestinians, according to an Israeli official.

The new aid will require a representative from each Palestinian family to come to one of the complexes to pick up an aid package every five days.  But the United Nations and aid groups have refused to participate in the plan, saying it is too dangerous because it requires Palestinians to travel through a war zone for food and violates their principles of neutrality because Israel would be controlling the aid.

Thus far the new plan has led to more chaos at the distribution points.

In recent weeks, Israel has surged thousands of soldiers into Gaza.  It is already in control of around 40% of Gaza’s territory since renewing hostilities in March after a temporary ceasefire collapsed.

—Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces killed Hamas leader in Gaza Mohammed Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October.  But it seems like Israel has killed a hundred “leaders.”

—Thursday, the White House said that Israel had “signed off” on U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s plan for a ceasefire and that it was waiting for a formal response from Hamas.

Israeli media cited Israeli officials as saying it would see Hamas hand over 10 living hostages and the bodies of 18 dead hostages in two phases in exchange for a 60-ay ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

But Hamas then said it was unlikely to accept the deal, saying in part that it’s not clear that Israel would withdraw from Gaza back to the positions during the last ceasefire.  Hamas also wants aid to be distributed by the UN agencies and other charity organizations, not by the new controversial U.S.-backed organization in Gaza where food is distributed to people in Israeli military zones.

–Separately, Israel bombed the main international airport in Yemen once again on Wednesday in retaliation for recent missile attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militia.

A devastating airstrike earlier this month on the same airport, which serves the capital, Sanaa, caused extensive damage that suspended flights for more than a week.  The latest strike destroyed the last remaining aircraft at the airport used by the Houthi government, according to Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, and the airport’s director.

Sirens sounded across Israel several times this week warning of incoming Houthi missiles.  The Israeli military said it had intercepted them all.

But earlier this month, a Houthi missile landed near a terminal of Israel’s main international airport, near Tel Aviv, with some airlines temporarily suspending operations.

Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that his nation would be able to survive if negotiations with the U.S. over its nuclear program fail to secure a deal, following what Donald Trump described as “very good” talks.

“It’s not like we will die of hunger if they refuse to negotiate with us or impose sanctions,” Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by state media about the talks with Washington. “We will find a way to survive.”

Trump wants to curtail Tehran’s potential to produce a nuclear weapon that could trigger a regional nuclear arms race and perhaps threaten Israel.  Iran, for its part, maintains that its nuclear program is exclusively for civilian purposes and wants to be rid of devastating sanctions.

Iran and the U.S. held a fifth round of talks last week in Rome and, while there were some signs of limited progress, there are many points of disagreement that are hard to breach, notably the issue of Iran’s uranium enrichment.

Asked about reports that Iran could freeze enrichment for three years to reach an agreement, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told a press conference: “Iran will never accept that.”

Baghaei also ruled out the possibility of an interim nuclear deal with the U.S., dismissing media reports that a provisional agreement was being considered as a temporary step towards a final deal.

Iran is waiting for further details from mediator Oman regarding the timing of the sixth round of talks, Baghaei said.

“If there is goodwill from the American side, was are also optimistic, but if negotiations are aimed at curbing Iran’s rights then talks will go nowhere,” he added.

Then Thursday, senior Iranian officials dismissed speculation about an imminent nuclear deal, further emphasizing that any agreement must fully lift sanctions and allow the country’s nuclear program to continue.

“Iran is sincere about a diplomatic solution that will serve the interests of all sides. But getting there requires an agreement that will fully terminate all sanctions and uphold Iran’s nuclear rights – including enrichment,” Abbas Araghchi, the country’s foreign minister, wrote in a post on X.

Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on X that previous U.S. presidents also had “fantasies” destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and warned that Iran has strong defenses and “clear red lines.”

The comments came a day after President Trump said he has told Prime Minister Netanyahu to hold off on striking Iran to give the U.S. more time to push for a deal with Tehran.

China: A People’s Liberation Army attack on Taiwan is “unlikely in the near future” but “not impossible,” given the risks of misperception and miscommunication with the United States under President Trump, a British think tank has warned.

The U.S.-China relationship is “more strained than it has ever been at any other point in the 21st century,” according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which published its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment on Wednesday.

The release of the report’s 2025 edition comes ahead of this week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier annual defense summit held in Singapore and co-organized by the IISS.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing over issues such as trade, technology and Taiwan were setting the tone of relationship characterized by “deep mutual distrust and a lack of dialogue mechanisms,” the report said.

“Trump’s first term [2017-2021] saw the U.S. launch its first Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017, which made clear that the region had become a priority for Washington. Central to this strategy was an acknowledgement that Chinese coercion and influence determined the interests of the U.S. and countries in the Asia-Pacific,” the report said.

South Korea: Big presidential election next Tuesday.  Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate Lee Jae-myung is the favorite.  This is the election to choose a new leader after Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached last month following his abrupt declaration of martial law in December.

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: New numbers…43% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove.  33% of independents approve, a new low under Trump 2.0 (May 1-18).  This figure was 46% after Trump was inaugurated.

Rasmussen: 53% approve, 47% disapprove (May 23).  Up from 50-49 last week.

—From the Washington Post:

“The Trump administration’s move to end deportation protections for wartime allies who fled to the United States after the fall of Afghanistan has infuriated veterans of the 20-year conflict there, who say the U.S. government is betraying a sacred promise made to some of America’s most vulnerable partners.

“This month Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the administration’s termination of temporary protected status, or TPS, for Afghans, exposing thousands, potentially, to deportation by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as soon as July, when the policy is to take effect.

“The fear, veterans and other advocates say, is that anyone who returns to Afghanistan will almost certainly face reprisal by the Taliban….

“ ‘If they attempt to deport the Afghans, you’re going to see actual physical conflict between veterans and ICE,’ predicted Matt Zeller, an Army veteran who became a prominent advocate for America’s Afghan allies after his interpreter saved his life….

“By declaring his intent to end (the) protections, President Trump risks alienating a key demographic – veterans of the war – at the same time he seeks to court them politically.”

—King Charles III said Canada is facing unprecedented challenges in a world that’s never been more dangerous as he opened the Canadian Parliament on Tuesday with a speech widely viewed as a show of support in the face of Trump’s annexation threats.

The king is the head of state in Canada, which is a member of the Commonwealth of former colonies.  Trump’s repeated suggestion that Canada becomes the 51st state prompted Prime Minister Mark Carney to invite Charles to give a speech from the throne outlining the Liberal government’s priorities for the new session of Parliament.

“We must face reality: since the Second World War, our world has never been more dangerous and unstable.  Canada is facing challenges that, in our lifetimes, are unprecedented,” Charles said in French.

He added that “many Canadians are feeling anxious and worried about the drastically changing world around them.”

The king reaffirmed Canada’s sovereignty, saying the “True North is indeed strong and free.”

Trump seemed to respond on Truth Social:

“I told Canada, which very much wants to be part of our fabulous Golden Dome System, that it will cost $61 Billion Dollars if they remain a separate, but unequal, Nation, but will cost ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st State.  They are considering the offer!”

—President Trump on Truth Social:

“Why isn’t Harvard saying that almost 31% of their students are from FOREIGN LANDS, and yet those countries, some not at all friendly to the United States, pay NOTHING toward their student’s education, nor do they ever intend to.  Nobody told us that! We want to know who those foreign students are, a reasonable request since we give Harvard BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, but Harvard isn’t exactly forthcoming. We want those names and countries.  Harvard has $52,000,000, use it, and stop asking for the Federal Government to continue GRANTING money to you!”

Then….

“We are still waiting for the Foreign Student Lists from Harvard so that we can determine, after a ridiculous expenditure of BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, how many radicalized lunatics, troublemakers all, should not be let back into our Country.  Harvard is very slow in the presentation of these documents, and probably for good reason!  The best thing Harvard has going for it is that they have shopped around and found the absolute best Judge (for them!) – but have no fear, the Government will, in the end, WIN!”

—Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered U.S. embassies worldwide to stop scheduling interviews for student visas as the Trump administration weighs stricter vetting of applicants’ social-media profiles.

The directive, laid out in a cable sent to diplomats worldwide on Tuesday, marks the latest effort by the administration to restrict foreign students’ entry to American schools over claims that they might threaten U.S. national security or promote antisemitism.

The move raises the stakes of an ongoing battle between the White House and universities – one that initially centered on elite schools such as Harvard University and Columbia University over antisemitism – but that’s morphed into a larger attack over the role of U.S. higher education.

David Leopold, a Cleveland-based immigration attorney, said the Trump administration’s move could be “cataclysmic, maybe even catastrophic” for both international students and the U.S. universities that rely on them.  “The economic impacts and cultural impacts are massive,” Leopold said.

Halting or even slowing visa applications would have ramifications for hundreds of thousands of students globally, and scores of educational institutions across the U.S., which have increasingly bolstered their ranks by attracting overseas talent.

International students accounted for 5.9% of the total U.S. higher education population of almost 19 million.  In the 2023-24 school year, more than 1.1 million foreign students came to the U.S., with India sending the most, followed by China.  Most international enrollees who come to the U.S. study science, technology, engineering or mathematics.

Foreign students also typically pay full tuition, offsetting costs that allow universities to provide more financial aid to U.S. citizens. [Bloomberg]

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The Trump Administration has frozen billions in federal grants to Harvard University, threatened its tax-exempt status, and sought to dictate its curriculum and hiring.  Now the government seems bent on destroying the school for the offense of fighting back. And for what purpose?

“That’s how we read the Department of Homeland Security’s move (a week ago) Thursday to bar foreign students from attending the world-renowned institution.  That’s 6,800 students, or a quarter of Harvard’s student body, whose futures are suddenly in disarray.  It’s also a short-sighted attack on one of America’s great competitive strengths: Its ability to attract the world’s best and brightest….

“The university seems likely to prevail on the law, but until courts settle the merits, thousands of students who have done nothing wrong will be in legal limbo.  Some of them no doubt opposed the anti-Israel protests and may even hail from Israel.  Why punish them?….

“This will be terribly damaging to America’s ability to attract talented young people who bring their enterprise and intellectual capital to the U.S.  Non-citizens accounted for more than half of doctoral degrees in AI-related fields in 2022.  Many have gone to work at U.S. companies like Nvidia or started their own.

“The National Foundation for American Policy finds that ‘immigrants have founded or cofounded nearly two-thirds (65% or 28 of 43) of the top AI companies in the United States, and 70% of full-time graduate students in fields related to artificial intelligence are international students.  Immigrants have also started more than half of America’s privately-held startups valued at $1 billion or more.

“Even if it’s modified, (DHS Sec.) Noem’s order will echo around the world as a signal that the U.S. is no longer open to educate the world’s brightest young people.  Foreign students will get the message and take their talents elsewhere. China’s politburo must be laughing at their good luck that their main adversary is hamstringing itself – first with tariffs that make its firms less competitive, and now with an assault on immigrant talent.

“Like most of U.S. higher education, Harvard needed a jolt to return to its mission of educating open minds.  But that requires reform. The Trump Administration seems to think it needs to destroy Harvard to save it.  This is the opposite of making America great.”

Wednesday, Secretary of State Rubio said the U.S. will begin revoking the visas of some Chinese students, “including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party of studying in critical fields.”

—President Trump with a special Memorial Day missive on Truth Social:

“HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING THE SCUM THAT SPENT THE LAST FOUR YEARS TRYING TO DESTROY OUR COUNTRY THROUGH WARPED RADICAL LEFT MINDS, WHO ALLOWED 21,000,000 MILLION PEOPLE TO ILLEGALLY ENTER OUR COUNTRY, MANY OF THEM BEING CRIMINALS AND THE MENTALLY INSANE, THROUGH AN OPEN BORDER THAT ONLY AN INCOMPETENT PRESIDENT WOULD APPROVE, AND THROUGH JUDGES WHO ARE ON A MISSION TO KEEP MURDERERS, DRUG DEALERS, RAPISTS, GANG MEMBERS, AND RELEASED PRISONERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD, IN OUR COUNTRY SO THEY CAN ROB, MURDER, AND RAPE AGAIN – ALL PROTECTED BY THESE USA HATING JUDGES WHO SUFFER FROM AN IDEOLOGY THAT IS SICK, AND VERY DANGEROUS FOR OUR COUNTRY.  HOPEFULLY THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT, AND OTHER GOOD AND COMPASSIONATE JUDGES THROUGHOUT THE LAND, WILL SAVE US FROM THE DECISIONS OF THE MONSTERS WHO WANT OUR COUNTRY TO GO TO HELL.  BUT FEAR NOT, WE HAVE MADE GREAT PROGRESS OVER THE LAST 4 MONTHS, AND AMERICA WILL SOON BE SAFE AND GREAT AGAIN! AGAIN, HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY, AND GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

–The Covid vaccine will no longer be recommended for healthy children or healthy pregnant women, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Tuesday.

The vaccines had been recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since they first became available for those groups several years ago.

Kennedy said in a video announcement that there was no clinical data to support additional shots for healthy children.

However, pediatricians point out that the youngest infants face among the highest risks for hospitalization, similar to older adults.

Kennedy’s decision upends the standard process for such recommendations, which are made by advisers to the CDC and accepted – or overruled – by the agency’s director. The health secretary is typically not directly involved in these matter, but the CDC does not currently have a permanent director.

The new policy follows last week’s decision by the FDA to require new data before approving the shots for children.

But the FDA policy included pregnancy in the list of conditions that put people at high risk from Covid.

The move throws insurance coverage of the vaccines for children or pregnant women into question. Commercial insurers rely on the advice of CDC advisers for coverage decisions, which the health secretary can override.

Meanwhile, the CDC said a new, highly infectious Covid-19 strain that has led to a spike in hospitalizations in China has now been detected in the U.S., including cases in New York City.

The new NB.1.81 variant was first detected in the U.S. in late March and early April among international travelers arriving at airports in California, Washington State, Virginia and New York City, with additional cases reported in Ohio, Rhode Island and Hawaii.

While the CDC said there are too few cases in the U.S. to be properly tracked in the agency’s variant estimates, experts are warning that the virus’ run in China shows it spreads more quickly than other dominant strains of the respiratory infection.

Hong Kong authorities also announced they were seeing a “significant increase” in emergency room visits and hospitalizations in the last month due to the variant.

–Separately, RFK Jr. said Tuesday that he may bar government scientists from publishing in the world’s leading medical journals, instead proposing the creation of “in-house” publications by his agency – the latest in the administration’s attacks on scientific institutions.

“We’re probably going to stop publishing in the Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA and those other journals because they’re all corrupt,” Kennedy said during an appearance on the “Ultimate Human” podcast.  He also described the journals as being under the control of pharmaceutical companies.

The three journals he named, all established in the 1800s, publish original, peer-reviewed research and play a central role in disseminating medical findings worldwide.

This a-hole is literally going to kill us.

–And in keeping with the above, we’re learning that RFK Jr.’s sweeping “MAHA Report” was seemingly generated using AI, resulting in numerous garbled scientific references and invented studies.

For example, the Washington Post reported that of the 522 footnotes to scientific research in an initial version sent to the paper, at least 37 appear multiple times.  Other citations include the wrong author, and several studies cited do not exist at all.

This story will get bigger, because now the networks and papers are tracking down the supposed authors.

—SpaceX’s latest unmanned Starship launch at first went off without a boom on Tuesday, but eventually broke up almost an hour after it took off.

After two test flights ended in dramatic explosions earlier this year, SpaceX’s ninth test of its Starship vehicle experienced a “rapid unscheduled disassembly” on Tuesday, SpaceX confirmed on X.  That’s the same language used when Starship’s January and March flight tests unexpectedly exploded in the sky.

“Teams will continue to review data and work toward our next flight test,” CEO Elon Musk’s company wrote.  “With a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s test will help us improve Starship’s reliability as SpaceX seeks to make life multiplanetary.”

Musk said the problem was leaks causing a loss of main tank pressure, adding a “lot of good data to review.”

Starship is the largest rocket launch system ever developed: The booster stage is roughly 240 feet tall, while the upper stage is about 160 feet tall.  [Or about the distance of an Aaron Judge home run.]

Musk said there will be more launches coming soon.  “Launch cadence for next three flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks,” he said in a post on X.

–We note the passing of former congressman Charles “Charlie” Rangel of New York, 94.

Rangel was a gravely-voiced and exuberant congressman from Harlem who became the first African American chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee but was forced to relinquish that coveted position because of financial transgressions.

Rangel was an outspoken liberal Democrat during his 46-year congressional career, which ended in 2017.  He championed programs to aid the poor; supported higher taxes on the wealthy; opposed interventionist military policies, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq; and worked against the 1996 welfare reform legislation that was signed into law by President Clinton.

Rangel was abandoned by his father at 6, dropped out of high school, but then became a decorated combat veteran of the Korean War before attending college and law school and beginning a steady climb in politics.

And former NYPD Commissioner Bernard Kerik, who was known as “America’s Cop” and led the city’s police department through the 9/11 terror attacks, died Thursday after he was hospitalized with cardiac disease.  He was 69, surrounded by family and friends, including New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who stopped by during Kerik’s final day.

Kerik and then mayor Rudolph Giuliani presided over a 63% drop in violent crime.

“For nearly two decades, Kerik served and protected New Yorkers in the NYPD, including helping rebuild the city in the aftermath of 9/11,” the Finest said on X.

–Staying in New York, Memorial Day weekend in the Big Apple saw the fewest number of shootings of any holiday since such data were first recorded 32 years ago, NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch said Tuesday.

There were seven incidents of gun violence in Gotham from Friday through Monday – breaking the previous record of 10 set in 2013, according to the department.

“We had the safest Memorial Day weekend in terms of gun violence that New York City has ever seen,” Tisch said.  “We have more cops out there than ever before – 1,500 additional cops this summer, and we were also very precise about the locations where we deployed our cops – looking at historical data about where the gun violence has occurred.”

Tisch explained that the department’s summer plan, which began on May 5, shifted deployments to focus on problem areas with a history of violent outbreaks – with shootings in these hotspots down nearly 60%.

—A driver slammed a car into a crowd celebrating Liverpool’s Premier Legue championship, seriously injuring a child and an adult and sending 50 people to four hospitals, with another 30 treated at the scene.

The crash created chaos at the end of a festive day in which hundreds of thousands of fans gathered for a parade through the Liverpool city center to celebrate their team.

The driver, a 53-year-old British man from the area, was arrested at the scene after the vehicle stopped, but it was not believed to be an act of terrorism, rather it was an isolated incident.

In a sign of the times, a man was falsely identified on social media as being the suspect (who was not immediately named) and is being attacked viciously online.

Then Thursday, Paul Doyle was identified as the driver and he faced multiple charges.

–As I was going through my cycle of newspapers the other day, I opened up the New York Post to see the lead story being CBS’ “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley’s commencement address at my alma mater, Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, NC, and, of course, it was a Post lead because Pelley warned graduates about an “insidious fear” seeping into schools and businesses.  He referenced international students who were wrongfully detained, threats to civil rights and voting rights, and government interference in the free press.

“Journalism is under attack.  Universities are under attack.  Freedom of speech is under attack,” Pelley said.

Though he made no mention of President Trump or the administration by name, the inference was clear.  And conservative voices lambasted the speech, and it went viral.

That is, about a one-minute snippet of a 23-minute speech was included in the stories.

At first, I thought, oh brother.  Thanks a lot, Mr. Pelley.  Why did you pick Wake Forest to make such a speech.  Now we’ll become a target.  I was thinking, I wish we had Kermit the Frog, like the University of Maryland did.

But then I watched the actual speech in its entirety.  It’s fine.  He’s a journalist.  He’s defending his trade, which has been under fierce attack for years (as I watch White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller on the tube on a totally unrelated topic where he is attacking the media, and, yes, on the issue of Joe Biden, the media deserves what it is receiving).

But parts of Pelley’s speech are very good.  And contrary to the accounts of certain media, including social media, Pelley was very well-received, save for the portion where he talked about an “insidious fear,” with loud applause at the end.

I submit the link to the full speech, which is from the 26:00 mark to about 49:00, for anyone who cares about knowing the full story.  Watch it with a beer, as I did.

And, yes, us Wake Forest folks are very proud of the fact that the late Maya Angelou was a longtime professor at Wake…Pelley mentioning her near the end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcWa-wXqFss

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $3318
Oil $60.78

Bitcoin $104,630 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.16; Diesel: $3.53 [$3.56 – $3.87 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 5/26-5/30

Dow Jones  +1.6%  [42270]
S&P 500  +1.9%  [5911]
S&P MidCap  +0.8%
Russell 2000  +1.3%
Nasdaq  +2.0%  [19113]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-5/30/25

Dow Jones  -0.6%
S&P 500  +0.5%
S&P MidCap  -3.8%
Russell 2000  -7.3%
Nasdaq  -1.0%

Bulls 41.5
Bears 26.4

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore