[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,371
Late this morning, President Trump posted the following on Truth Social:
“I have just been informed that almost 20,000 Russian soldiers died this month in the ridiculous War with Ukraine. Russia has lost 112,500 soldiers since the beginning of the year. That is a lot of unnecessary DEATH! Ukraine, however, has also suffered greatly. They have lost approximately 8,000 soldiers since January 1, 2025, and that number does not include their missing. Ukraine has also lost civilians, but in smaller numbers, as Russian rockets crash into Kyiv, and other Ukrainian locales. This is a War that should have never happened – This is Biden’s War, not ‘TRUMP’s.’ I’m just here to see if I can stop it!”
Oh brother. But an hour later it got worse.
“Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Earlier in the week, regarding Trump’s sanctions threats against Russia, Medvedev issued one of his regular threats.
“Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” Medvedev posted. “Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country.”
What’s kind of ironic is Trump’s missive this afternoon comes as the Washington Post’s George Will posted a column this morning titled “80 Years Since Hiroshima. How much longer can the world’s luck hold?”
Will talks about the nuclear powers arrayed against the United States these days, and the danger of “President Donald Trump’s McGovernite ‘come home, America’ impulse, his disdain for allies and skepticism about alliances. Nations, from South Korea to Poland, that no longer feel protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella might want their own.”
Will concludes his column:
“Thucydides said three things cause wars: honor, fear and interest. Come Wednesday, 29,220 days will have passed since the first use of a nuclear weapon, and 29,217 since the second. What in humanity’s carnage-strewn history of honor-driven angers, rational and irrational fears, and ideologically defined interests suggests there will not be a third, and then others?”
Hard to disagree, if you are a student of the world.
Now who wants a beer….
—
Wall Street and the Economy…tariffs take center stage anew….
Sunday in Scotland, President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a sweeping trade deal that imposes 15% tariffs on most European goods, staving off Trump’s threat of a 30% rate if no deal had been reached by Friday.
The tariffs could raise prices for U.S. consumers and dent profits for European companies and their partners who bring goods into the country.
But let’s start out with this. Trade deals normally take years and are hundreds of pages long. As in all the other prior ‘agreements in principle’ that Trump has reached with the UK, Japan and a few others, there are still details to be worked out. Some very important ones.
Regarding the deal with the EU, the headline figure is a 15% tariff rate on “the vast majority” of European goods brought into the U.S., including cars, computers chips and pharmaceuticals. It’s lower than the 20% Trump initially proposed, and lower than his threats of 50% and then 30%.
Von der Leyen said the two sides agreed on zero tariffs on both sides for a range of “strategic” goods: Aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment (think ASML), certain agricultural products, and some natural resources and critical raw materials. But, again, few specifics.
She said the two sides “would keep working” to add more products to the list.
Additionally, the EU side would purchase what Trump said was $750 billion (638 billion euros) worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel to replace Russian energy supplies, and Europeans would invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.
But there’s no time frame and details are lacking.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Trump is trumpeting the EU’s commitment to buy some $750 billion in U.S. energy, invest $600 billion in America, and buy U.S. weapons. Much of this would have happened anyway. European countries have been signing long-term contracts with U.S. liquefied natural gas producers as they wean themselves off Russian energy.”
Trump said the 50% U.S. tariff on imported steel would remain; von der Leyen said the two sides agreed to further negotiations to fight a global steel glut, reduce tariffs and establish import quotas – that is, set amounts that be imported, presumably at a lower rate.
Trump said pharmaceuticals were not included in the deal. Von der Leyen said the pharmaceuticals issue was “on a separate sheet of paper” from Sunday’s deal. “We have 15% for pharmaceuticals. Whatever the decision later on is, of the president of the U.S., how to deal with pharmaceuticals in general globally that’s on a different sheet of paper.”
Senior U.S. officials later said that the two sides agreed on a 15% tariff level for the EU’s pharmaceutical exports. A separate Section 232 probe on pharmaceuticals is still coming over the next three weeks, but the EU tariff level will remain at 15%, the officials added.
Von der Leyen said the overall 15% rate was “the best we could do” and credited the deal with maintaining access to the U.S. market and providing “stability and predictability for companies on both sides.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal which avoided “an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations” and said that “we were able to preserve our core interests,” while adding that “I would have very much wished for further relief in transatlantic trade.”
The Federation of German Industries was blunter. “Even a 15% tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry,” said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the federation’s leadership.
And the dissent picked up speed the next 24 hours.
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said on social media: “It’s a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, united to affirm their values and defend their interests, opts for submission.”
The reaction of far-right populist leaders across the continent was brutal. Granted, they were already hostile to the EU.
Marine Le Pen, a leader of France’s right-wing National Rally, called the EU deal a “political, economic and moral fiasco.” Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, wrote on X, “The EU has let itself be brutally ripped off.”
Aside from pharmaceuticals and steel, a huge issue in the trade compact is autos. Asked if European carmakers could still sell cars at 15%, von der Leyen said the rate was much lower than the current 27.5%. That has been the rate under Trump’s 25% tariff on cars from all countries, plus the preexisting U.S. car tariff of 2.5%.
The impact could be substantial. For example, Mercedes-Benz dealers in the U.S. have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices “until further notice.” The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo “significant increases” in coming years.
[European automakers sent $45 billion worth of cars to the United States last year.]
Together the U.S. and the EU have 44% of the global economy. Prior to Trump’s actions, the U.S. tariff rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU’s averaged 1.35% for American products, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.
The EU last year accounted for nearly $610 billion of the $3.3 trillion in goods imported by the U.S.
Trump has complained about the EU’s 198-billion-euro trade surplus, which shows Americans buy more from European businesses than the other way around, and has said the European market is not open enough for U.S.-made cars.
But Europeans aren’t buying big American cars, and won’t buy them. I’m not buying American. I’ve had Hondas for over 35 years straight! Love ‘em.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Europe may figure that it’s better off paying a 15% blanket tariff that avoids steeper sectoral duties, and U.S. courts are likely to strike down Mr. Trump’s on-his-own-whim tariffs in any case….
“As Mr. Trump pulls back from the worst of his trade threats, his supporters are pulling what amounts to a rhetorical and political bait and switch. Because there hasn’t been a recession or a global tariff spiral, they say his trade policy is a great success. No Great Depression II, the critics must have been wrong.
“But Mr. Trump is the one who has retreated from his North American and reciprocal trade assaults, and the damage in lost trust in the U.S. and new economic costs is still real. Though his tariff apologists think otherwise, Mr. Trump can’t repeal the laws of economics.”
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks, following talks in Stockholm.
Adding an extra 90 days is one option, Bessent said.
Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters that both sides agree on maintaining the truce, without elaborating on how long. He added that the conversations in Sweden were candid, in-depth and geared for continued close communication.
So in other tariff news, Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order implementing a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil, with the White House saying tariffs would address Brazil’s policies toward U.S. tech companies, including “unusual and extraordinary policies and actions harming U.S. companies, the free speech rights of U.S. persons, U.S. foreign policy, and the U.S. economy.”
This goes back to the criminal proceedings against former leader Jair Bolsonaro, who plotted a military takeover of Brazil in 2022…it’s all on tape.
But there are exclusions, such as for aircraft and parts, and orange juice…but not coffee.
Trump also announced a deal with South Korea, basically at the 15% tariff rate Japan got, with more promises of investment in the U.S.
Trump then blasted India, for all number of reasons on Truth Social, while slapping a 25% tariff on them. So much for the special relationship with Prime Minister Modi.
Thursday morning, Trump announced a 90-day pause with Mexico to allow for further negotiations, which means Mexico continues to pay a 25% tariff on cars, and 50% on steel, aluminum and copper, though this last one is not as severe as initially thought.
And then Thursday night, President Trump raised the tariff on U.S. imports from Canada to 35% from 25%, effective Friday (for goods outside the scope of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement). Trump said Canada had failed to “do more to arrest, seize, detain or otherwise intercept…traffickers, criminals at large, and illicit drugs.” [Canada accounts for just 1 percent of U.S. fentanyl imports.]
Trump has heckled Canada for months and suggested it should become the 51st state.
Earlier Thursday, the president said Canada’s announcement it will recognize a Palestinian state would “make it very hard” for the U.S. to reach a trade agreement with its neighbor.
Prime Minister Mark Carney had said Ottawa would only agree to a deal “if there’s one on the table that is in the best interests of Canadians.”
In a statement released early Friday, he said he was disappointed by Trump’s actions and vowed to diversify Canada’s exports.
For another 66 countries, Taiwan and the European Union, Trump set tariff rates ranging from 10 to 41 percent.
The baseline rates for many trading partners remain unchanged at 10 percent from the duties Trump imposed in April.
Trump set a 20 percent duty on Taiwan’s exports to the U.S., even though Japan and South Korea settled on 15 percent.
I have to repeat, these aren’t trade deals. They are framework agreements, a lot of it being smoke and mirrors.
As Douglas Holz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum puts it:
“They’re not genuine trade agreements of the traditional sort, which are voluntary in nature – countries negotiate, agree, sign, and then ratify. These are handshake agreements at the point of a gun, and I don’t see that as a particularly durable way to think about trade policy. So, we’ll see how that plays out.”
And Greg Ip / Wall Street Journal:
“(These) deals don’t yet represent a new trade order. They are sort of a way station, more fragile and with less legitimacy than the system they have supplanted….
“The one-sided nature of these deals also makes them more fragile…
“Deals made under duress are politically unpopular and thus less durable.”
—
Turning to the economy and the Federal Reserve….
Starting Wednesday morning with the first look at second-quarter GDP, it came in at a surprising 3%, vs. 2.5% consensus. [The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow final look, Tuesday, moved it up to 2.9%, so they get the prize for accuracy.]
President Trump immediately posted on Truth Social:
“2Q GDP JUST OUT; 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! ‘Too Late’ MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE. No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!”
But the report wasn’t as rosy as the headline number would have you believe. We had a -0.5% reading for the first quarter, but that was caused by a surge in imports – which are subtracted from GDP – as businesses scrambled to bring in foreign goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
And from April through June, a drop in imports – the biggest since the Covid-19 outbreak – added more than 5 percentage points to growth. Consumer spending registered lackluster growth of 1.4%, though it was an improvement over the first quarter’s 0.5%. [It was 2.8% in 2024.]
A key category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength (“Final sales to private domestic purchasers”) weakened in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.9% in the first quarter and the weakest since the end of 2022.
Wednesday afternoon, we then heard from the Federal Reserve following its Open Market Committee meeting, and the Fed held interest rates steady for a fifth straight time, but faced rare dissents from two officials seeking an immediate cut…Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, whose opinions were well-telegraphed ahead of time. Nonetheless the first time with two dissenters since 1993.
The Fed made very few changes to its policy statement, indicating no appetite to hint at a potential cut, like in September.
The Fed’s release noted: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated… The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”
Chair Jerome Powell then didn’t say anything earth shattering in his presser after, noting that before the Sept. 16-17 meeting, the Fed will have two rounds of employment and inflation data prior, two pieces of which then came Thursday and Friday.
Powell downplayed the significance of the dissents.
“This was quite a good meeting all around the table,” he said. “People thought carefully about this and put their positions out there. The majority of the committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target. Maximum employment is at target. That calls for modestly restrictive [interest rates] in my way of thinking.”
Thursday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Jerome, ‘Too Late’ Powell has done it again!!! He is TOO LATE, and actually, TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL, to have the job of Fed Chair. He is costing our Country TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, in addition to one of the most incompetent, or corrupt, renovations of a building(s) in the history of construction! Put another way, ‘Too Late’ is a TOTAL LOSER, and our Country is paying the price!”
But also Thursday morning, we then had the release of the June personal consumption expenditures index, PCE, the key inflation barometer for the Fed, and it was up 0.3%, 2.6% year-over-year on headline, but 0.3%, 2.8% on core, ex-food and energy; this last number the key for Jerome Powell and Co., and May core PCE was revised up to 2.8% as well.
The Fed isn’t cutting rates with back-to-back 2.8s.
Separately, personal income and consumption both rose 0.3% in the month.
Which led us to Friday’s jobs report for July, and it sucked. The expectation was for 110,000 on nonfarm payrolls [Econoday], and instead it was 73,000; the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%.
But it was the huge revisions for May and June that shocked the market, with May revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June from 147,000 to 14,000.
Manufacturing employment declined by 11,000 jobs in July, the third straight month of job losses in the industry. Trump’s tariffs were intended to boost manufacturers and encourage consumers to buy domestically. But steeper tariffs have pushed up costs for foreign parts, which has hurt some manufacturers.
It’s just all the uncertainty, mostly around the impact of tariffs.
Meanwhile, the federal government is shedding workers in droves…154,000 federal employees have accepted buyouts and tens of thousands more have been laid off.
Average hourly earnings did rise 0.3%, 3.9% from a year ago, better than expected.
Shortly after the employment report was released, Trump posted:
“Too Little, Too Late. Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell is a disaster. DROP THE RATE! The good news is that Tariffs are bringing Billions of Dollars into the USA!”
Outrageously, at 2:09 PM this afternoon, Trump posted that he had “directed my Team to fire” Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics.
McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, was confirmed by the Republican Senate 86-8 last year.
Trump continued with his post:
“McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under ‘TRUMP’ despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting ‘Kamala’ elected – How did that work out? Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should also be put ‘out to pasture.’ Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Then, at 3:44 PM, Trump did what I have long feared in this second term, posting:
“In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad – Just like when they had three great days around the 2024 Presidential Election, and then, those numbers were ‘taken away’ on November 15, 2024, right after the Election, when the Jobs Numbers were massively revised DOWNWARD, making a correction of over 818,000 Jobs – A TOTAL SCAM. Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell is no better! But, the good news is, our Country is doing GREAT!”
I’m biting my tongue. The president is out of control. We will pay a price…the level of which is to be determined.
A few other data points from the week….
The Case-Shiller home price index for May fell 0.3% month-over-month, but rose 2.8% year-over-year vs. 3.4% prior for the 20-city index…just further proof of a sick housing market.
The Chicago PMI for July was 47.1, once again below the 50 level, which represents the difference between growth and contraction.
And today’s July ISM manufacturing reading was a less than expected 48.0.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow very early reading of third-quarter growth is at 2.1%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.72%.
No real market-moving data next week. Which means something else will.
Europe and Asia
A slew of important data for the eurozone this week.
A preliminary flash estimate for the second quarter had it increasing 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, according to Eurostat. Compared with the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.4%.
Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024
Germany 0.4%, France 0.7%, Italy 0.4%, Spain 2.8%, Netherlands 1.5%. [I don’t report on Ireland for this metric because its calculations are way too funky.]
We also had a flash estimate for inflation in July for the EA20, unchanged from June 2%. Ex-food and energy also unchanged, 2.4%.
Headline inflation (annualized)….
Germany 1.8%, France 0.9%, Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.7%, Netherlands 2.5%, Ireland 1.6%.
Euro area unemployment for June was 6.2%, unchanged from May.
Germany 3.7%, France 7.0%, Italy 6.3%, Spain 10.4% (down from 11.5% a year ago), Netherlands 3.8%, Ireland 4.0%.
And we had manufacturing PMIs for July in the eurozone, 49.8, a 36-month high.
Germany 49.1 (35-mo. high)
France 48.2
Italy 49.8 (16-mo. high)
Spain 51.9
Netherlands 51.9
Ireland 53.2
Greece 51.7
UK 48.0
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:
“Manufacturing in the eurozone is cautiously regaining momentum. It is primarily the smaller economies that offer reasons for optimism. The PMIs from Spain and the Netherlands indicate accelerated economic growth, while Ireland and Greece remain in expansion territory. In the three largest economies as well as Austria, the PMI signals that the industrial recession has significantly eased. This broadens the scope of the recovery. With the newly agreed trade framework between the EU and the U.S., uncertainty should decline, and the signs point to a continued upward trend in the coming months.”
Turning to Asia…China reported on its official PMI readings for July, courtesy of the National Bureau of Statistics, with the manufacturing index at 49.3, services 50.1, both below consensus.
The private Caixin manufacturing figure for July came in at 49.5, below June’s 50.4.
Separately, China has vowed to maintain its macro policy support for the rest of 2025 as the country seeks to navigate economic risks – both external and internal – in the second half of the year and plan for its next half-decade of development.
After a meeting of the Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo – a major decision-making body led by President Xi – that ended Wednesday, the party’s upper echelon issued a statement encouraging action to support the economy.
“Macro policies must continue to exert strength and be stepped up when appropriate,” according to Xinhua.
The Politburo also called for “effectively unleashing the potential of domestic demand,” a major priority for Beijing this year, by implementing targeted actions to boost consumption, improving people’s livelihoods to expand demand and invigorating private investment to drive effective growth.
The CCP has also scheduled a key annual conclave for October, with a main focus on deliberating the next five-year plan for the country’s economic, political and social goals amid continued tensions with the United States.
Japan’s manufacturing PMI for July was 48.9, down from 50.1 in June, signaling renewed deterioration in the health of the sector.
South Korea’s July manufacturing PMI was 48.0. Taiwan’s just 46.2.
Street Bytes
–The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another record high on Monday, but it was largely down from there, with today’s jobs report adding fuel to the bear case; granted, there are few bears out there.
On the week, the Dow Jones fell 2.9% to 43588, the S&P lost 2.4% and Nasdaq 2.2%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.12% 2-yr. 3.68% 10-yr. 4.21% 30-yr. 4.81%
The yield on the 10-year hit 4.40% just prior to the release of the putrid jobs report, owing to renewed uncertainty over the impact of Trump’s tariffs, but then after the report, the yield cratered to 4.21% by days’ end, a historic decline, as odds for a September rate cut spiked higher.
The 2-year yield, which was around 3.94% this morning, fell to 3.68%! Goodness gracious.
Trump’s irrational behavior also fed the rally.
–Crude oil had started out in a strong fashion with President Trump’s talks of secondary tariffs on any buyer of Russian oil, but fell hard Friday amid angst on the demand side with all the new tariffs Trump issued.
On the earnings front, Exxon Mobil, the U.S.’s biggest oil producer, beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit on Friday as higher oil and gas output and low production costs offset the impact of lower crude prices.
Oil and gas production was the highest for any second quarter since the merger of Exxon and Mobil formed the company more than 25 years ago, the company said.
Adjusted earnings during Q2 were $7.1 billion, or $1.64 per share, surpassing consensus of $1.56.
The energy sector has struggled with price volatility as OPEC+ increased its production, pushing global benchmark Brent crude prices down 11% in the quarter.
Global tariffs levied by President Trump added to price weakness as they raised the prospect of a weakening global economy with knock-on effects for oil demand.
Exxon’s main production areas include the Permian basin, the largest U.S. oilfield, as well as the prolific Stabroek Block off the coast of Guyana.
The low cost of production in those fields allows them to stay profitable even during times of lower oil prices, Exxon has said.
Global production totaled 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the quarter, up from 4.5 million in the previous three months.
Last month, Exxon lost a legal challenge against Hess, one of its partners in Guyana, which cleared the way for rival Chevron to complete its acquisition of Hess.
Exxon had argued it had a contractual pre-emptive right to purchase Hess’ 30% stake in the Stabroek Block.
So, rival Chevron beat analyst estimates for second-quarter profit as record oil and gas production and lower capital expenditures helped to offset lower prices.
Adjusted earnings for the quarter were $3.1 billion, or $1.77 per share, beating consensus of $1.70.
Global production totaled 3.4 million boed, up from 3.3 million in the same period last year.
Both Exxon and Chevron shares fell a bit amid the overall market decline.
—Copper futures plunged 20% on Wednesday, the largest intra-day selloff on record after President Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that started today. The tariffs do not apply to the most widely imported forms of copper to the U.S.
—Microsoft led off a big week for Big Tech, the stock surging on better-than-expected financial results for its latest quarter and strong guidance, putting the tech giant on track to hit a $4 trillion market cap. The beat was driven in part by double-digit revenue growth in the tech firm’s closely watched Azure cloud business.
Microsoft posted adjusted earnings of $3.65 a share on revenue of $76.4 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. The Street was at $3.37 a share on revenue of $73.9bn. In the same period last year, MSFT reported earnings of $2.95 a share on revenue of $64.7 billion.
Total cloud revenue rose 27% in the quarter from the previous year to $46.7 billion.
Revenue for the Azure public-cloud business grew 39% year-over-year, an acceleration from the third quarter’s 33% revenue growth. Analysts were at growth of 35%. For the year, Azure revenue surpassed $75 billion in revenue, up 34% from the previous year.
On top of the strong financials, CFO Amy Hood said on the conference call that the company expects double-digit revenue and operating income growth in fiscal 2026.
—Meta Platforms shares surged 10% on Thursday after the company blew out second-quarter earnings expectations after the close Wednesday.
Like Alphabet’s Google the week before, Meta’s release reveals a lot of strength in digital advertising, at least for these two giants.
Meta credited AI for boosting its results. “The strong performance this quarter is largely thanks to AI unlocking greater efficiency and gains across our ad system,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the company’s earnings call.
EPS for Meta rose to $7.14 versus consensus of $5.88, and up from $5.16 last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $47.5 billion, well above expectations of $44.8 billion, and up 22% on the year.
Meta’s important metrics – daily users, ad impressions and price-per-ad – all exceeded the Street’s forecasts.
Meta also provided strong revenue guidance for the third quarter of $49 billion at the midpoint, exceeding the average analyst projection of $46 billion, and up 21% on the year.
Meta spent $17 billion on capital expenditures this quarter for new AI data centers to further its push into “superintelligence,” a machine that can do any intellectual work at least as well as the best human. Zuckerberg believes that the future of Meta hinges on its success in this effort.
In the first half of 2025, Meta has spent $31 billion on capex, so that puts it a little behind schedule for its annual guidance of $66 billion-$72 billion in data center spending.
And it isn’t cutting back. “We expect to ramp our investments significantly in 2026,” said CFO Susan Li on the call.
Meta released a Wednesday letter from Zuckerberg outlining a utopian vision of personal empowerment from AI. He sought to distinguish his company’s push from “others in the industry who believe superintelligence should be directed centrally towards automating all valuable work, and then humanity will live on a dole of its output.”
“Meta believes strongly in building personal superintelligence that empowers everyone,” he continued. “We have the resources and the expertise to build the massive infrastructure required, and the capability and will to deliver new technology to billions of people across our products.”
—Amazon announced its second quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday, beating on the top and bottom lines and offering better-than-anticipated Q3 revenue guidance of between $174 billion and $179.5 billion. Analysts were expecting $173.2 billion.
But AWS (cloud) performance failed to live up to the hype built up by Google and Microsoft, with Q3 operating income guidance coming in at $15.5 billion to $20.5 billion, with the Street at $19.5 billion.
AWS revenue hit $30.8 billion vs. an expected $30.7 billion. It topped $26.2bn in Q2 last year.
For the quarter, Amazon reported earnings per share of $1.68 on revenue of $167.7 billion, with the Street at $1.33 and $162.1 billion. The company saw EPS of $1.26 and revenue of $147.9bn in the same quarter last year.
Outside of AWS, Amazon posted online store sales of $61.4 billion.
Tariffs would appear to be driving up Amazon’s cost-of-goods sold. Because of implementation lags and changing pronouncements from the White House, the full effects of tariffs haven’t been felt yet.
Amazon spent $56 billion on capex in the first half of the year and projected it would spend another $60 billion in the remainder – well ahead of analysts’ expectations.
—Apple’s iPhone sales blew past Wall Street’s expectations in the June quarter as some U.S. consumers rushed to buy their devices before potential price increases form tariffs; $44.58 billion, which surpassed estimates for $40.1 billion, while iPad and Mac sales also beat expectations.
The robust sales growth for the company’s signature product was the highest increase in years, exceeding 13%, a testament to tariff-related spending habits and the popularity of its latest devices, including a cheaper iPhone released earlier this year.
The shares fell some on Friday, getting swept up in the overall market swoon.
Total sales came in at $94 billion, about 10% higher than the same period a year ago. Adjusted earnings were $1.57 a share, both beating estimates.
The iPhone sales offer an example of the unexpected impacts of tariffs on many companies. The change in consumer buying habits, which helped Apple in the quarter, was partially offset by the tariff hit the company absorbed from a 20% levy on imports from China. Apple softened the blow by shipping more U.S.-bound iPhones from India, and gross profit margins also exceeded Wall Street expectations.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company will face tariff costs of about $1.1 billion in the July-to-September period, compared with $800 million in the June quarter.
Apple’s CFO Kevan Parekh, said in an interview that the company saw some “obvious signs of pull-ahead demand related to tariffs earlier in the quarter.” He attributed about one-sixth of iPhone sales growth to such purchases and the rest, he said, was due to “very strong upgrade performance in general.”
Another bright spot was a 4.4% increase in China sales to $15.4 billion, after declining sales in the region, which was once a reliable growth engine for Apple in recent years.
But government subsidies no doubt had an effect, Tim Cook said. China has been offering incentives to buyers of smartphones and other electronics this year. The MacBook Air was the top-selling laptop in the country, and the Mac Mini the bestselling desktop model, Cook said on a conference call.
The tariff impact could rise in the near future. An exemption for smartphones from reciprocal tariffs is expected to lapse. When it does, Apple could face steep tariffs for iPhones that originate in India as well, especially after President Trump announced new levies on the country Wednesday, 25%.
Revenue from Apple’s services unit, which includes its App Store and other offerings, surged 13% to $27.4 billion.
Separately, Apple will close a store in northeastern China in August, the first time it has shuttered one of its retail locations since it opened its first outlet in the country in 2008.
The company said on Monday that it would close its store in Dalian City’s Parkland Mall on Aug. 9. On social media, locals have described the mall as struggling, noting that other brands like Michael Kors and Armani have closed their stores there.
The closure is the latest sign of how China’s economy continues to be challenged by tepid consumer spending.
But the pullback also reflects Apple’s ongoing business troubles in China, which is its second-largest market. Apple had reported declining sales in China for six quarters, before this past quarter’s gains. Last year, it reported total revenue in the country of $66.95 billion, nearly 10 percent less than its peak of $74.2 billion in 2022.
—Chinese authorities summoned Nvidia Corp. to discuss alleged security risks related to its H20 chips, casting doubt over the domestic business of the world’s most valuable company weeks after co-founder Jensen Huang met senior officials in Beijing.
The Cyberspace Administration of China called company representatives into a meeting to discuss what it deemed serious security vulnerabilities with the artificial intelligence chip. In a statement, the internet watchdog cited comments by U.S. lawmakers about the need to install tracking capabilities into advanced chips sold to other countries. The agency asked staff to explain potential risks and provide documents as needed, the CAC said without elaborating.
The revelation came just days after U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm to extend their tariff truce, talks Chinese state media said had “deepened mutual trust.”
Huang in his high-profile visit to Beijing, had denied Nvidia installed backdoors in its product, saying that wouldn’t make business sense.
Nvidia shares rose, even on the news, owing to the strong earnings from META Platforms and Microsoft.
Nvidia then issued a statement Thursday reiterating its chips have no backdoors.
—Boeing’s second-quarter loss narrowed and revenue improved as the aircraft manufacturer delivered more commercial planes in the period.
Boeing lost $611 million, or 92 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30. A year earlier it lost $1.44 billion, or $2.33 per share. Adjusted for one-time gains, Boeing lost $1.24 per share, better than the loss of $1.54 per share analysts’ estimated.
Revenue climbed to $22.75 billion from $16.87 billion, mostly due to 150 commercial deliveries compared with 92 deliveries in the prior-year period.
“Our fundamental changes to strengthen safety and quality are producing improved results as we stabilize our operations and deliver higher quality airplanes, products and services to our customers,” CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a statement. “As we look to the second half of the year, we remain focused on restoring trust and making continued progress in our recovery while operating in a dynamic global environment.”
Sunday, Boeing said it expects more than 3,200 union workers at three St. Louis-area plants that produce U.S. fighter jets to strike after they rejected a proposed contract that included a 20% wage increase over four years.
Last fall, Boeing offered a general wage increase of 38% over four years to end a 53-day strike by 33,000 aircraft workers producing passenger aircraft.
—Twenty-five people aboard a Delta Air Lines flight were hospitalized on Wednesday evening after the plane, which was flying from Salt Lake City to Amsterdam, experienced strong turbulence that forced it to make an emergency landing in Minnesota.
Flight DL56 was carrying 275 passengers and 13 crew members and was met by medical personnel upon landing, the airline said.
The Airbus A330-900 landed just over two hours into its scheduled eight-hour journey.
—An air traffic controller should have alerted the crew of a passenger jet that an Army helicopter was speeding toward their aircraft on Jan. 29, a Federal Aviation Administration official affirmed in testimony Thursday, the agency’s first acknowledgement of a possible error in the Reagan National Airport control tower immediately before the fatal collision.
The focus on the lapse emerged on the second day of a tense National Transportation Safety Board hearing that is delving into causes of the midair crash, which killed 67 people.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
7/31…110 percent of 2024 levels
7/30…106
7/29…87
7/28…100
7/27…117
7/26…93
7/25…102
7/24…109
—Ford Motor paid out more than $800 million in tariffs last quarter, despite manufacturing most of its vehicles in the U.S.
The tariff bill came from parts imported from outside of the country as well as from fees on steel and aluminum. The hit helped wipe out the company’s net profit, leading to its first quarterly loss since 2023.
Executives say they are pressing the Trump administration to lower levies on parts and materials. “They’ve made it clear that Ford as the most American automaker should not be disadvantaged,” finance chief Sherry House said. “We are optimistic.”
The company said tariff-related costs will cut about $2 billion from its annual earnings, more than the $1.5 billion it predicted three months ago.
The company reported a net loss of $29 million, compared with $1.8 billion in net income a year ago. Revenue rose to $50.2 billion, from $47.8 billion a year ago. Ford shares fell on the news.
Tariffs are slicing into profits for automakers around the globe as companies pay higher duties on cars and parts coming from outside of the U.S. The U.S. recently struck tariff-lowering trade deals with Japan, the EU and the UK. Such deals advantage rivals such as Toyota and Nissan, Ford said.
The company added it is on track to make $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in adjusted pretax earnings for the year, below the earlier forecasts before tariffs scrambled the equation.
—Union Pacific said on Tuesday it would buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in an $85 billion deal, to create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight rail operator and reshape the movement of goods from grains to autos across the country.
If approved, the deal would combine Union Pacific’s stronghold in the western two-thirds of the U.S. with Norfolk’s 19,500 mile network that primarily spans 22 eastern states.
This would mark the largest-ever buyout in the sector, merging Union Pacific, the biggest U.S. railroad operator, with Norfolk, one of the top players, granting the combined company transcontinental dominance.
The transaction faces numerous regulatory hurdles and will serve as a key test of the changed thinking around antitrust issues under President Donald Trump.
Since early 2025, the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, the federal regulatory agency overseeing railroads, has signaled a more industry-friendly approach to merger reviews.
—Toyota Motor Corp. saw record global sales during the first half of 2025 as strong demand for hybrid vehicles in core markets helped offset headwinds from President Trump’s tariffs on cars imported to the U.S.
Toyota’s global sales rose 7.4% to more than 5.5 million units between January and June, the company said Wednesday. That’s mostly due to strong demand in the U.S., Japan and China. Production grew 8.8% to 5.5 million units during the period, including a nearly 20% jump in domestic output.
The carmaker’s sales were bolstered in the early part of the year by a last-minute rush from customers to lock-in purchases before Trump’s 25% tariff on car imports.
While that sparked uncertainty across the global auto sector, Japan’s carmakers may be better placed than rivals following a trade pact reached this month that will place just a 15% duty on vehicles imported to the U.S.
—UnitedHealth Group reported second quarter earnings Tuesday beating Wall Street’s expectations on the top line by a small margin, and missing on the bottom line. But its earnings continue a trend of higher-than-expected costs in the industry this quarter.
The company reported revenues of $111.6 billion, compared to Wall Street expectations of $111.53 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.08, compared to $4.59 expected by the Street. The revenues are up nearly $13 billion, year-over-year, compared to the second quarter in 2024. But margins have shrunk, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.1% this quarter.
The company also updated its guidance for the full year, after pulling it last quarter. It now expects revenues between $445.5 to $448.00 billion, and adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share.
More patients seeking care means more premiums being paid out and less revenue for health insurers. Typically, insurers aim to be on the lower end of between 80%-85% of the premiums they receive, known as the medical expense ratio.
UnitedHealth reported 89.4% this quarter, compared to 84.8% in the first. That number is the highest in the company’s history, breaking its 2024 record of 85.5% – which was attributed to higher utilization of care by seniors.
Other insurers have reported 90% or more in the second quarter this year – a significant jump from prior quarters, and it’s all related to Medicare or Medicaid programs.
—Merck aims to cut $3 billion in costs by end of 2027, reducing jobs across admin, sales and R&D.
The Rahway, N.J.-based pharmaceutical giant also said it will continue to hire for new roles across the business’s strategic growth areas.
Merck also plans to shrink its footprint. The company said it will reduce its global real estate portfolio as it continues to optimize its manufacturing network.
In Q2, the company noted it continued to make long-term investments in domestic R&D and manufacturing capabilities.
In April, Merck broke ground on a $1 billion technology center in Delaware. That developing site will serve as the primary U.S. manufacturing site for the company’s blockbuster cancer treatment, Keytruda (which posted 9% year-over-year growth during the quarter). Another $875 million expansion in Kansas will support Merck Animal Health manufacturing.
For the second quarter of 2025, total worldwide sales came in at $15.8 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2%.
—Procter & Gamble on Tuesday forecast annual results largely below Wall Street estimates in the face of cautious consumers, a day after the Tide parent named an insider as CEO to steer it through the tariff uncertainty.
P&G, which topped fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and profit estimates on price hikes, will raise prices on about a quarter of its products in the U.S., starting this month, to help offset the cost of new tariffs imposed by President Trump.
The price hikes have been communicated to retailers such as Walmart and Target and are in the mid-single digits across categories, a spokesperson said, and will be seen on shelves starting in August.
The comments from the world’s largest consumer goods maker reinforce how consumers, particularly in the lower income category, are seeking value as they look to stretch their household budgets. Packaged food maker Nestle said last week that consumers in North America remained weak.
P&G estimated tariffs will increase its costs by about $1 billion before tax for fiscal 2026. That compares with projections of between $1 billion and $1.5 billion made in April.
P&G expects fiscal 2026 core net earnings per share growth in the range of flat to up 4% to between $6.83 and $7.09, compared with the Street being at $6.99.
The company’s revenue rose 1.7% to $20.89 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of a 1.4% rise to $20.82 billion.
Prices rose 1% while volumes were flat year-over-year.
EPS for the three months ended June 30 were $1.48, compared with consensus of $1.42.
—United Parcel Service shares dropped Tuesday after the company reported slightly weaker-than-expected earnings of $1.55 from sales of $21.2 billion. Wall Street was looking for a profit of $1.56 per share from sales of $20.9 billion.
Revenue and operating profit guidance weren’t updated.
UPS generated sales and EPS of $27.8 billion and $3.59, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the 15 quarters since then, sales have fallen year over year 10 times, and EPS has fallen nine times, according to Bloomberg. Operating profit margins have declined to about 8% from 14% over that span.
In the first quarter of 2025, average daily U.S. domestic package volume was 17.4 million packages, down about 3.5% year over year.
—Starbucks shares rose after the company reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations on revenue but missed on earnings per share.
For the three months ended on June 29, the Seattle-based coffee chain reported adjusted earnings per share of 50 cents on $9.5 billion in revenue. The Street was at 64 cents but on revenue of $9.29 billion.
Net sales grew 4% from a year ago, mostly driven by an expanded footprint. In the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 308 net new stores, boosting the total to 41,097.
But comparable sales at existing stores continued to show weakness, with global same-store sales falling 2% year-over-year, more than analyst estimates for a 1.3% decline. In the U.S., comparable-store sales dropped 2% Y/Y due to a 4% slip in transactions.
Comp-sales in China rose 2%.
CEO Brian Niccol is attempting to turn things around through the so-called “Back to Starbucks” plan.
He said the company plans to “unleash a wave of innovation” in 2026, and that Starbucks is revamping its rewards program.
Niccol said the company will roll out new menu items next quarter, including a 15-gram protein cold foam, coconut water-based tea and customizable energy drink offerings.
Management’s focus on higher store staffing and improved hospitality has led to higher labor costs.
—Figma Inc. shares surged 250% in their first day of trading Thursday. The designer of web and mobile application interfaces had an IPO price of $33 a share and it closed the first day at $115.50. It’s the largest first-day pop for a U.S.-traded company raising more than $1 billion in at least three decades, according to Bloomberg.
—From Gregory Zuckerman and Vicky Ge Huang / Wall Street Journal:
“Since June 1, 98 companies have announced plans to raise over $43 billion to buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, according to Architect Partners, a crypto advisory firm. Nealy $86 billion has been raised for this purpose since the start of the year. That’s more than double the amount of money raised in initial public offerings in the U.S. in 2025, according to Dealogic.
“Skeptics say the rush of companies buying crypto is a sign the market is overheating, noting that digital tokens, especially the obscure ones, are notoriously volatile and have uncertain futures. They scratch their heads about why an investor would buy shares of a company purchasing cryptocurrencies when they can buy them on their own through low-cost exchange-traded funds and other vehicles.
“Others note that many of these companies are worth much more than the cryptocurrencies they hold, as if investors are willing to pay $2 for a $1 bill.”
But all manner of big players are jumping into the game.
—Royal Caribbean raised its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, banking on resilient demand for the cruise operator’s high-end private island destinations and premium sailings.
The company, however, expects third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $5.55 to $5.65, below analysts’ estimates of $5.83. The shares fell on the guidance.
For the second quarter, the company had adjusted earnings of $4.38, surpassing consensus of $4.10. Revenue of $4.54 billion was just shy of the Street’s $4.55bn.
—Walt Disney’s Marvel Studios had the big winner at last weekend’s box office, the latest Marvel movie, “Fantastic Four: First Steps,” which took in $118 million in domestic theaters, $218 million globally, according to Comscore.
“Superman” notched another $24.8 million in domestic sales in its third weekend, for a cumulative total of $289.5 million.
Hollywood’s domestic box-office sales are outpacing the same time a year ago, up 12% to nearly $5.2 billion, according to Comscore.
Meanwhile, “Happy Gilmore 2,” streaming on Netflix, had 46.7 million viewers in just three days – making it the biggest U.S. opening weekend in Netflix history.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: President Trump said he would shorten his timeline for Vladimir Putin to reach a truce with Ukraine or face potential economic penalties, ramping up pressure on Moscow to bring the fighting to a halt.
“I am going to make a new deadline of about 10, 10 or 12 days from today,” Trump told reporters in Scotland on Monday during talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“I’ll announce it probably tonight or tomorrow,” Trump added. “But there’s no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is,” expressing frustrations with Putin for rebuffing previous calls for a ceasefire.
Trump added: “I’m not so interested in talking anymore. He talks. We have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people die the following night in a – with a missile going into a town.”
Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, said on Telegram:
“Russia will respond very diplomatically” and point out that “setting specific deadlines does not, by itself, encourage the negotiation process. But Russia’s actual response to Trump’s ultimatum will be the same as it has been to all ultimatums for the past 500 years: Get lost! Go to hell!”
—Moscow launched waves of missile and drone attacks on Kyiv before dawn on Thursday, killing at least 28 people including three children, and wounding over 150 others, Ukrainian officials said.
As the sun rose, emergency crews were putting out fires and cutting through concrete blocks in search for survivors across the capital. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched more than 300 drones and eight missiles.
“Today, the world has once again seen Russia’s response to our desire for peace with America and Europe. Therefore, peace without strength is impossible,” Zelensky said on the Telegram app.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it targeted and hit Ukrainian military airfields and ammunition depots as well as businesses linked to what it called Kyiv’s military-industrial complex.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 16 children were wounded, the largest number hurt in a single night in the city since Russia started its full-scale invasion almost three and a half years ago.
Explosions rocked Kyiv from about midnight onwards and blazes lit up the night sky.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on X: “The world possesses every instrument required to ensure Russia is brought to justice. What is lacking is not power – but will.”
Last Saturday, Russia launched 235 drones and 27 missiles that killed three people in Ukraine’s Dnipro and the nearby region, Ukrainian officials said.
The Air Force said 10 missiles and 25 attack drones hit nine sites. The rest of the drones and missiles were brought down.
President Zelensky vowed retaliatory strikes.
“Russian military enterprises, Russian logistics, and Russian airports should feel that Russia’s own war is now hitting them back with real consequences.”
Last Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War, responding to remarks from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, said Vladimir Putin still wants “nothing short of Ukraine’s full capitulation, undermining Russia’s diplomatic posturing.”
And then overnight Monday, at least 25 people were killed across Ukraine in Russian strikes that hit a prison and a hospital.
The deadliest attack was on the Bilenke penitentiary in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where 16 inmates were killed and more than 50 injured.
A separate Russian strike on people queuing for humanitarian aid killed five in the northeastern Kharkiv region. Three people – including a pregnant woman – were killed in the central Dnipropetrovsk region.
Tuesday, Ukraine’s armed forces confirmed a Russian missile strike hit a military training unit, killing at least three service personnel and injuring 18.
The military did not say where the training ground was located.
—Thursday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces took full control of the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
Russian and Ukrainian troops have battled for control of Chasiv Yar for nearly 18 months. It includes a hilltop from which troops can attack other key points in the region that form the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defenses.
—The European Union said last weekend that it would withhold 1.5 billion euros, or $1.7 billion, from an overall fund of 4.5 billion euros whose disbursement to Ukraine is dependent on achieving good governance standards and that can’t be used for military purchases. The decision is not final, however, and the funding can be restored if Ukraine meets certain benchmarks.
President Zelensky had no public comment on the aid cut, which nevertheless was a setback for Ukraine’s leader, who is depending on European financial support to fill gaps left by the Trump administration’s refusal to underwrite Ukraine’s war effort.
The EU’s move raised questions about whether the glow around Mr. Zelensky might be beginning to dim among Ukraine’s Western allies.
—The U.S. appears to have sent nuclear weapons to the UK, a first since 2008, Bloomberg reports: “On July 16, a U.S. military aircraft flew with its transponders on – making its identification and location publicly visible – from a U.S. nuclear weapons depot at Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to an airbase in the UK city of Lakenheath, according to defense analysts and open-source data.”
Israel/Gaza: President Trump has been facing increasing pressure from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and the international community amid reports of famine in Gaza.
Trump notably disagreed with Prime Minister Netanyahu, acknowledging Monday that “real starvation” is happening. When asked if he agreed with Netanyahu’s remarks about concerns of mass starvation in Gaza being overstated, Trump replied: “I don’t know. I mean, based on television, I would say not particularly because those children look very hungry… That’s real starvation stuff, I see it, and you can’t fake that. We have to get the kids fed.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in Scotland meeting with Trump, was more forceful: “I think people in Britain are revolted at seeing what they are seeing on their screens.”
A UN-affiliated organization that tracks food security worldwide this week issued a dire alert confirming a “worst-case” famine scenario is unfolding across Gaza.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said the crisis in Gaza “could be” a political problem for Trump.
“I think that the American people at the end of the day are a kind people. They don’t like seeing suffering, nor do I think the president does,” Tillis said. “If you see starvation, you try to fix it.”
Images of starving children – and reports of Israeli attacks on civilians lining up for humanitarian aid – have led some members of Trump’s base to speak out about the unfolding crisis in Gaza, adding to pressure on the administration to intervene. Trump has said the U.S. will partner with Israel to run additional food centers.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) referred to the Israeli campaign in Gaza as “genocide.” Similar criticisms so far have been confined to the left.
The UN estimates nearly 1 in 3 people (35%) in Gaza are going without food for days at a time. At least 24 children younger than 5 have died from hunger-related causes in July, according to the World Health Organization, as of early this week.
“Immediate, unimpeded” humanitarian access into Gaza is the only way to stop rapidly rising “starvation and death,” the leading international authority on food crisis said this week.
A new Gallup poll measures Americans’ approval of Israel’s military action in Gaza at 32 percent, the lowest point recorded since the question was first asked in November 2023.
Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) broke with many Democrats on Monday when he announced he would not support any additional aid to Israel until the humanitarian crisis is addressed in a meaningful way. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) is warning that Netanyahu has done “irreparable damage” to Israel’s relationship with Democrats.
King warned that Israel’s harsh tactics in Gaza are “disastrous” for its support among global leaders and its standing among Americans.
“They’re losing the support of a whole generation of Americans. These young people who are protesting 10 or 15 years from now are going to be in Congress. It’s a self-inflicted wound, it’s unnecessary,” King said in a statement, adding he thinks this sentiment is shared by colleagues on both sides of the aisle.
“I think everybody is concerned about this,” he said. “The president made a pretty straightforward statement.”
And it’s not just the humanitarian crisis impacting Israel’s image. It’s the violence, like another 34 Palestinians killed on Monday in multiple locations, a day after Israel eased aid restrictions.
Israel announced Saturday night that the military would pause operations in Gaza City, Deir al-Balah and Muwasi for 10 hours a day until further notice to allow for the improved flow of aid to Palestinians. Airdrops commenced, though these in no way address the crisis overall, it’s a pinprick action and if you are weak physically, you don’t stand a chance in the fighting over each package.
A senior U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that while aid has been getting into Gaza: “Huge amounts of (it), purchased by U.S. taxpayers, are sitting in Gaza or less than 2.5 miles away. Rotting. The aid-industrial complex has been refusing to distribute it.”
—Israeli gunfire killed at least 30 Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid in northern Gaza on Wednesday, according to the Hamas-run civil defense agency.
A Gaza civil defense spokesperson told the AFP news agency that Israeli fire wounded around 300 more people. Israel said details of the incident “are still being examined.”
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said they fired “warning shots” after Gazans gathered around aid trucks, but they were “not aware of any casualties from IDF gunfire.”
Mohammed Abu Almiya, director of al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, said his facility had received 35 bodies following the incident, according to AFP.
Later, the hospital said at least 48 Palestinians were killed, according to the Associated Press.
According to the UN human rights office, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military while trying to access food aid since late May.
China: Beijing will spearhead the creation of an international organization to jointly develop AI, the country’s premier said, seeking to ensure that world-changing technology doesn’t become the province of just a few nations or companies.
AI harbors risks of widespread job losses to economic upheaval that require nations to work together to address, Premier Li Qiang told the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on Saturday. That means more international exchanges, Beijing’s No. 2 official said during China’s most important annual technology summit.
Li didn’t name any countries in his short address to kick off the event. But Chinese executives and officials have taken aim at Washington’s efforts to curtail the Asian country’s tech sector, including by slapping restrictions on the export of Nvidia Corp. chips crucial to AI development.
North Korea: The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un rebuffed overtures by South Korea’s new liberal government, saying Monday that its “blind trust” in the country’s alliance with the U.S. and hostility toward North Korea make it no different from its conservative predecessor.
Kim Yo Jong’s comments imply that North Korea – now preoccupied with its expanding cooperation with Russia – sees no need to resume diplomacy with South Korea and the U.S. anytime soon. Experts say she likely hopes to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington.
“We clarify once again the official stand that no matter what policy is adopted and whatever proposal is made in Seoul, we have no interest in it and there is neither a reason to meet nor an issue to be discussed,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement carried by state media.
The new South Korean President, Lee Jae Myung, took office in early June with a promise to improve badly frayed ties with North Korea.
Lee’s government has halted anti-Pyongyang frontline loudspeaker broadcasts, taken steps to ban activists from flying balloons with propaganda leaflets across the border and repatriated North Koreans who drifted south in wooden boats months earlier.
North Korea has shunned talks with South Korea and the U.S. since leader Kim Jong Un’s high-stakes nuclear diplomacy with President Trump fell apart in 2019 due to wrangling over international sanctions. North Korea has since focused on building more powerful nuclear weapons targeting its rivals and declared a hostile ‘two-state’ system on the Korean Peninsula to terminate relations with South Korea.
Thailand and Cambodia: President Trump is claiming credit for a tentative ceasefire between these two, but the facts are that Malaysia and China have been two of the key players in bringing the two sides together.
And in the end, from my reading of things, it was the military leadership of both Thailand and Cambodia that really brokered a ceasefire, the two militaries being very influential political players in their systems as well.
Just like the India-Pakistan recent conflict wasn’t brokered by the White House, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio had discussions with both, but rather in the end it was the generals that got the two sides to stand down, and that was per Indian Prime Minister Modi.
At least 38 people have been killed in the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, with hundreds of thousands displaced.
Random Musings
—Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 37% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. 29% of independents approve (July 7-21).
Rasmussen: 49% approve, 50% disapprove (Aug. 1).
–A new Wall Street Journal poll has Democrats receiving their lowest rating among voters in 35 years, with voters seeing Republicans as better at handling most issues that decide elections.
The new survey finds that 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party – the highest share in Journal polls dating to 1990 and 30 percentage points higher than the 33% who hold a favorable view.
That is a far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party, who are viewed more favorably by 7 and 11 points, respectively. A mere 8% of voters view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared with 19% who show that level of enthusiasm for the GOP.
In some cases, the disparities are striking. Disapproval of Trump’s handling of inflation outweighs approval by 11 points, and yet the GOP is trusted more than Democrats to handle inflation by 10 points.
Voters have significant concerns about the centerpiece of Trump’s agenda – his immigration policies – opposing some of his deportation tactics by double-digit numbers. And yet they trust congressional Republicans more than Democrats on immigration by 17 points and on handling illegal immigration by 24 slides.
“The Democratic brand is so bad that they don’t have the credibility to be a critic of Trump or the Republican Party,” said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who worked on the Journal survey with Republican Tony Fabrizio. “Until they reconnect with real voters and working people on who they’re for and what their economic message is, they’re going to have problems.”
At the same time, when asked how they would vote if the election were held today, more voters in the new Journal poll said back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. But while this seems to be a significant advantage for the Democrats at this early stage, in 2017, the Democratic lead was 8 percentage points.
—Senate Democrats received a massive shot in the arm with Monday’s announcement that former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was jumping into the Tar Heel State’s high-stakes Senate race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley then announced he will run against Cooper, with President Trump’s backing – setting the stage for quite a showdown.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has North Carolina and two other seats – Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term, and Michigan’s open seat – as the only toss-ups in the upper chamber next year, but others could enter the category later on.
—Kamala Harris announced she will not run for California governor next year, leaving open the possibility that she could mount a third run for the White House, which would be absurd.
—The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday announced a proposal to rescind the landmark opinion that underpins virtually all of its regulations to curb climate change.
The move would end EPA regulations on greenhouse gases emitted by cars, while also undercutting rules that limit power plant emissions and control the release of methane by oil and gas companies.
“If finalized, today’s announcement would amount to the largest deregulatory action in the history of the United States,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said Tuesday.
“We do not have that power on our own to decide as an agency that we are going to combat global climate change because we give ourselves that power.”
The 2009 “endangerment finding” concluded that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, establishing a legal basis to regulate them as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The EPA’s new proposal strikes at this foundation and argues the Clean Air Act does not give the agency the authority to regulate greenhouse emissions.
The EPA’s proposal now enters a 45-day period for public comments, after which the agency must respond before submitting the final version.
—President Trump said he fell out with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein after he “stole” young women who worked at his Mar-a-Lago beach club spa.
The president made the remarks as he returned from Scotland, where he faced more questions over his relationship with the disgraced financier.
“He took people, I say, ‘don’t do it anymore,’ you know they work for me…beyond that, he took some others,” Trump said. “Once he did that, that was the end of him.”
Asked if the employees were young women, Trump responded: “the answer is yes,” and added that they were hired “out of the spa” he ran.
Trump said that one of them was Virginia Giuffre, who had said she began working at Mar-a-Lago in the summer of 2000, when she was 16.
According to court documents unsealed in 2019, Giuffre alleged she was recruited by Ghislaine Maxwell to give massages to Epstein while she was working at the spa.
Giuffre accused Prince Andrew and Epstein of sexual abuse, allegations they both denied. She died by suicide earlier this year in Australia.
We also learned today that Epstein accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, was quietly moved to a minimum-security prison in Texas after her meetings last week with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.
—Some of Trump’s musings on Truth Social this week:
“Wow, ‘Concast’s’ NBC is down in viewership almost 28% this year. Their programming is terrible, their management even worse. They are an arm of the Democratic Party, and should be held accountable for that. Likewise, Fake News ABC!!! MAGA”
Followed immediately by….
“Networks aren’t allowed to be political pawns for the Democrat Party. It has become so outrageous that, in my opinion, their licenses could, and should, be revoked! MAGA”
Yup, Fox News and Newsmax are OK because they are political pawns for the GOP. I mean, c’mon, Mr. President.
Trump also demanded that former Vice President Kamala Harris be prosecuted – along with Beyonce, Oprah Winfrey and Al Sharpton for fees that were paid to the stars during the 2024 election. Trump claimed that the stars were paid millions of dollars by Harris’ campaign for appearances – and that the money amounted to illegal payments to endorse Harris’ failed presidential bid.
“I’m looking at the large amount of money owned by the Democrats, after the Presidential Election,” Trump began on Truth Social Saturday. “These ridiculous fees were incorrectly stated in the books and records. YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO PAY FOR AN ENDORSEMENT. IT IS TOTALLY ILLEGAL TO DO SO.”
“Eleven Million Dollars to singer Beyonce for an ENDORSEMENT (she never sang, not one note, and left the stage to a booing and angry audience!), Three Million Dollars for ‘expenses,’ to Oprah, Six Hundred Thousand Dollars to very low rated TV ‘anchor,’ Al Sharpton (a total lightweight!), and others.
“They should all be prosecuted! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
No one knows where the president got these figures.
During the 2024 cycle, Harris’ campaign drew criticism over $165,000 payments from Beyonce’s production company, Parkwood Entertainment, for an Oct. 26 Houston rally.
Winfrey’s production company, Harpo Productions, was reportedly paid $1 million for a live stream event she helped organize in Michigan. Harris’ team also sent $500,000 to Sharpton’s National Action Network. [New York Post]
—Investigators on Tuesday were focusing on whether a gunman had been targeting the headquarters of the National Football League when he burst into an office tower in Midtown Manhattan and killed four people, including a police officer, in a rare episode of deadly mass violence in the city.
Mayor Eric Adams said on Tuesday morning that the authorities “have reason to believe that he was focused on the NFL,” which has offices at the tower, 345 Park Avenue. A three-page note found on the gunman mentioned the league, as well as claims that the man had suffered from the degenerative brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or C.T.E., from playing football, the police said. It asks that his brain be examined for signs of C.T.E. and accuses the league of concealing the dangers of the game.
An employee of the NFL was “seriously injured” in the shooting Monday evening and was in stable condition, according to a statement from commissioner Roger Goodell.
Mayor Adams said that investigators believe the gunman entered an elevator bank that did not have access to the NFL’s offices, so he instead traveled to the offices of Rudin Management, which owns the tower, and the man was later found dead there, on the 33rd floor, having taken his own life, after killing a 27-year-old woman.
The New York City police officer, Didarul Islam, 36, who was working off duty as a security guard, was the first person shot by the gunman when he entered the lobby of the building at 6:28 p.m., according to Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch.
Another woman killed in the shooting was identified on Tuesday as Wesley LePatner, an executive at the investment firm Blackstone, which also has offices in the tower.
Officer Islam, an immigrant from Bangladesh, had a wife and two kids, with a third on the way. He had been with the NYPD for three and a half years.
—Canada’s measles outbreak handily exceeds cases in the U.S., with the public health agency recording about 4,200 measles cases this year, more than three times as many as the 1,300 cases recorded in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Alberta, which has low measles vaccine rates, has recorded about 1,600 cases. The largely conservative province has a deep and vocal level of skepticism about the public health system and vaccines.
In 2021, 79 percent of children in Canada were vaccinated against measles by their seventh birthday, down from about 86 percent in 2013, according to federal data. That’s pathetic.
—Beijing and the surrounding provinces started seeing heavy rains on July 23 and peaked July 28, with the suburb of Miyun experiencing 22.6 inches of rain – levels local media described as “extremely destructive.” The average annual rainfall in Beijing is around 24 inches. As much as 18 inches fell in 24 hours in western Baoding, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
As of Thursday morning, at least 60 had been killed in the resulting flooding, including 31 deaths in an elderly care home in Miyun.
—Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and its temperatures are rising at roughly twice the global average, two top climate monitoring organizations reported Monday, warning of the consequences for human health, glacier melt and economic activity.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s climate agency, Copernicus, said in a joint report that the continent has the opportunity to develop targeted strategies to speed up the transition to renewable resources like wind, solar and hydroelectric power in response to the effects of climate change.
The continent generated 43% of its electricity from renewable resources last year, up from 36% the year before, the agencies say in their European State of the Climate report for last year. More energy in Europe was generated from renewables than from fossil fuels for the second year running.
The latest five-year averages show that temperatures in Europe are now running 2.3 degrees Celsius (4.1 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, compared to 1.3 degrees Celsius higher globally, the report says, just shy of the Paris Climate accord goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
—It’s been a slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, but most experts agree that by the third week in August, things will heat up.
Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY that “Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active.”
The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. We’ve had three named storms thus far.
—Four- to six-foot tsunami waves were recorded in Hawaii following a magnitude-8.8 quake that struck at a depth of 13 miles off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday morning local time, triggering tsunami alerts from Japan and China to the U.S. and Canada. An earthquake of that scale marks the strongest since 2011, according to recent data from the U.S. Geological Survey, and the most powerful in Russia since 1952.
Tsunamis travel 500 to 600 miles per hour, about the cruising speed of a Boeing 747.
The 2011 earthquake off Japan’s east coast triggered the Fukushima tsunami and nuclear disaster. That quake, which had a magnitude of 9.1, created a tsunami 50-feet tall that rushed inland for miles with the speed of a locomotive, swallowing everything in its path and flooding more than 200 miles of shoreline. More than 19,000 people were killed.
Just as strong was the temblor that struck near the northern Indonesian island of Sumatra in 2004, triggering the deadliest tsunami in recorded history, with waves as tall as 160 feet slamming into the coasts of more than a dozen countries. About 230,000 people were killed, over half of them in the Indonesian province of Aceh.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, for each whole-number increase in magnitude, the seismic energy released by a quake increases by about 31.6 times. That means a magnitude 8.8 earthquake produces about 31.6 times more energy than a magnitude 7.8 quake.
–A study released for the annual Alzheimer’s Association International Conference found that walking daily can reduce the risk of cognitive decline.
Almost 3,000 participants between the ages of 70 and 79 reported their daily walking habits over the course of 10 years and those maintaining or increasing their walking habits over the years showed greater improvements in processing speed and executive function.
The benefits of walking were especially noticeable among those with a genetic predisposition for developing Alzheimer’s disease.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $3402
Oil $67.27
Bitcoin: $113,346 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.15; Diesel: $3.74 [$3.48 – $3.81 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 7/28-8/1
Dow Jones -2.9% [43588]
S&P 500 -2.4% [6238]
S&P MidCap -3.5%
Russell 2000 -4.2%
Nasdaq -2.2% [20650]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-8/1/25
Dow Jones +2.5%
S&P 500 +6.1%
S&P MidCap -0.5%
Russell 2000 -2.9%
Nasdaq +6.9%
Bulls 50.0
Bears 21.2
Hang in there. Go for a walk.
Brian Trumbore
