For the week 8/18-8/22

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,374

As with all the momentous events of the last 26+ years, I cover this week’s events involving Russia-Ukraine, Trump-Putin, Trump-Zelensky as it all went down, day by day.  I know for some of you it is ‘too much,’ but, as always, it’s for the archives…and history.

For now, however, I can’t help but note after watching Trump take questions this afternoon in the Oval Office, that if you’re Ukrainian, you have little hope.

Trump said he will give Vladimir Putin “two weeks” to agree to talks with Zelensky.  Of course, as with all big issues, the president is constantly giving “two weeks.”

Trump was all over the place in his statements today, but repeated the two-week timeframe several times, at one point saying, “We’ll see what happens. I think in two weeks, we’ll know which way I’m going, because I’m going to go one way or the other, and they’ll learn which way.”

But he also pulled out from the Resolute Desk a photo of him and Putin in Anchorage, that he said Putin had sent him.

“I was just sent a picture from someone who wants to be there very badly,” Trump said, referring to next year’s World Cup in the United States.  He’d convened reporters in the Oval Office to announce that the draw would be held at the Kennedy Center in December.

“He’s been very respectful of me and of our country, but not so respectful of others,” Trump said, adding that he was going to sign the photo for Putin, who he suggested could be coming to the U.S. for the WC.

“He may be coming and he may not, depending on what happens.”

Trump has Putin’s picture, which he showed off admiringly, in his freakin’ desk!  And then he speaks in glowing terms.  It is SICK!!!

—

I posted last Friday literally right before Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump sat down with their teams in Anchorage, Alaska.  Putin had been given the red-carpet treatment, including a military flyover and a ride in the presidential limousine.

The session ended sooner than anticipated and Trump headed back to Washington having taken no questions from the assembled press as expected, and with little to show for all the pageantry.  Putin was demanding concessions on Ukraine’s future before he was willing to end the war.

Putin was treated as an equal on U.S. soil, and for now had avoided any further American sanctions while announcing no concessions of his own.  So much for Donald Trump’s repeated campaign promise that he would end the war in one day, on his first day in office.

Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he would grade the meeting a “10” on a scale of one to 10, “in the sense that we got along great,” and that he expected Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to set up a future meeting.

Trump called the summit “fantastic,” adding there was no need to go ahead with sanctions at this point.

“Now, it’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done,” Trump told Hannity, saying the U.S. and Russia agreed on several points, but still need to find consensus on “one or two pretty significant items.”

Trump did say at the truncated news conference after the summit, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

Putin’s remarks following the meeting were far more extensive, repeating that Moscow wanted the root causes of the conflict addressed – which refers to demands to demilitarize Kyiv and block any hopes for NATO membership.  But then Putin echoed Trump’s assertion that Russia wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine in 2022 if the Republican was in office instead of former President Biden.  “I can confirm that,” Putin said.

Putin also said, “We expect that Kyiv and European capitals will perceive (any agreements he reached with President Trump) constructively and will not throw a wrench in the works.”

Oleksandr Merzhko, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian Parliament, said the meeting had been a public relations victory for Putin, and “used Trump to show that he is not isolated… Trump wanted to show that he is a great dealmaker, but he failed.”

Pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov said Trump had natural empathy with Putin and natural antagonism with the Europeans and Zelensky – and he was moving closer to Putin.

Trump posted on Truth Social early Saturday morning:

“A great and very successful day in Alaska! The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO.  It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.  President Zelensky will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin.  Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

“Ukraine once again confirms that it is ready to work productively to achieve peace,” Zelensky wrote on social media Saturday.  Zelensky reiterated that Europe should be part of the talks.

Zelensky and European leaders spoke with Trump as he returned to Washington late Friday, saying it’s up to Ukraine to decide on what to do with its territory, and that Putin’s stance hadn’t changed – he still wants Kyiv to cede control of the entire Donbas region in Ukraine’s east, according to multiple reports.

Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out giving up all of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Moscow only partially controls, while losing tens of thousands of soldiers in the process.  Russia would apparently halt advancing its claims over the parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions it doesn’t now control.

Saturday, European leaders then issued a joint statement.

“Leaders welcomed President Trump’s efforts to stop the killing in Ukraine, end Russia’s war of aggression, and achieve just and lasting peace,” the statement said.

“As President Trump said ‘there’s no deal until there’s a deal.’  As envisioned by President Trump, the next step must now be further talks including President Zelensky, whom he will meet soon.

“We are also ready to work with President Trump and President Zelensky towards a trilateral summit* with European support.”

The statement emphasized that “Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

“We welcome President Trump’s statement that the U.S. is prepared to give security guarantees. The coalition of the willing is ready to play an active role.  No limitations should be placed on Ukraine’s armed forces or on its cooperation with third countries.  Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine’s pathway to EU and NATO,” European leaders said.

“It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force.”

The statement added: “Our support to Ukraine will continue. We are determined to do more to keep Ukraine strong in order to achieve an end to the fighting and a just and lasting peace.

“As long as the killing in Ukraine continues, we stand ready to uphold the pressure on Russia.  We will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy until there is a just and lasting peace.”

The European leaders concluded: “Ukraine can count on our unwavering solidarity as we work towards a peace that safeguards Ukraine’s and Europe’s vital security interests.”

*Top Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, who was in the room with Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavor in Anchorage, said a trilateral summit was not broached at the summit.

Former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister, Carl Bildt:

“It’s official: Trump has capitulated to Putin by dropping the demand for a ceasefire.  Instead the fighting will go on until there is a peace agreement that satisfies Putin.  His terms are well known. This was a hugely successful outcome for Putin.  We are heading towards a longer war.”

European leaders said that it was up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory, and that the current line of contact must be the starting point of negotiations.  They also reaffirmed Ukraine’s need for robust security guarantees and pledged continued military assistance.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide warned that Putin’s demand to address the “root causes” of the war, was “code for the Russian justification for the illegal invasion of Ukraine,” calling for increased pressure on Russia.

“We know that President Putin wants to split Europe and the United States. With all our allies, we must do everything we can to avoid that,” he said in comments to Norwegian media.

Kaja Kallas, the European Commission foreign policy chief, said that the United States had the power to force Russia to negotiate seriously.

“But the harsh reality is that Russia has no intention of ending this war anytime soon,” she wrote in comments to the Washington Post.  “European security is not up for negotiation.”

Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday morning….

BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA. STAY TUNED! President DJT”

Editorial / Washington Post

“President Donald Trump arrived at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on Friday with a clear goal: extract a ceasefire agreement from Vladimir Putin.  Meanwhile, the Russian president came to Alaska not to end his war against Ukraine but to avoid expanded economic sanctions. Although only one side got what it initially wanted, what happens in the coming days will be more consequential.

“ ‘We’ve made some headway,’ Trump told the press after talks ended early.  Contradicting Putin’s earlier assertion that they had reached an agreement, Trump added that ‘there’s no deal until there’s a deal.’  The two did not take questions.  In an interview with Fox News, Trump declined to disclose the biggest sticking point, which nevertheless seems to have been his desire for a ceasefire.  Yet the president is plowing ahead.

“ ‘It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up,’ Trump posted Saturday morning on Truth Social….

“The key for Zelensky in the coming days is to ensure that Moscow, not Kyiv, is rightly blamed for any lack of progress.  That means maintaining an openness to negotiations and not being baited into public debating, like in their last Oval Office meeting.  Despite the summit’s inconclusive end, Trump and Zelensky reportedly discussed security guarantees that ought to be appealing to the vulnerable nation.

“Indeed, the core Ukrainian goal remains to survive the current onslaught while ensuring Ukrainian sovereignty for the long haul.  Praising Trump’s acumen and showing an openness to dealing with Putin is a morally unsatisfying but necessary approach for Zelensky – especially if he can win promises to deter a future invasion once hostilities end.

“For weeks, Trump had threatened secondary sanctions that would prevent countries such as India and China from buying fossil fuels from Putin’s regime. Such sanctions crippled Iran’s already fragile economy during Trump’s first term and would have a material effect on the Russian war machine….

“Our preference is to impose sanctions now. We understand the worry that this would blow up negotiations, but the bigger risk is that Putin believes he can string along talks to avoid punishment, as Iran did during Joe Biden’s presidency.  Putin is driven by the logic of power and force, not diplomatic niceties….

“Criticism of Trump for meeting with Putin doesn’t quite land.  Like it or not, the Russian strongman is firmly in power and remains the driving force behind the war.  Trump’s praise of hostile leaders is too often over-the-top, but this summit doesn’t permanently bring Putin into the civilized world… The real danger now is not that Putin gets a small public-relations victory but that he continues his war without further consequences.

“Despite his unorthodox approach, Trump demonstrated a clear-eyed understanding of American interests when dealing with Iran and North Korea.  In the end, he was willing to increase pressure and walk away from bad deals.  The time for that might not have come yet, but it is fast approaching.”

Max Boot / Washington Post

“The best thing you can say about the Alaska summit is that it could have been worse. Trump did not publicly endorse Putin’s demand that Ukraine hand over more territory to Russia in return for a ceasefire (although apparently he told European leaders that this would be the fastest path to peace).  Nor was there any deal to relax U.S. sanctions on Russia.  If Trump had made concessions on that scale, the Alaska summit would have been remembered as another Yalta.

“But, if Alaska was not a disaster, it was definitely a defeat. Putin walked away the clear winner from his latest encounter with an American president.

“Putin’s triumph was evident from the very start of the gathering at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson where U.S. troops literally rolled out the red carpet for a dictator, indicted as a war criminal by the International Criminal Court in 2023, who cannot risk journeying to most countries for fear of being arrested.  Trump looked positively giddy as he welcomed Putin with a big smile and a handshake and then treated him to a ride in the presidential limousine – a beast inside ‘the beast.’

“Indeed, Putin has become expert at using his KGB training and his native guile to manipulate his gullible American counterparts. In his post-summit interview on Friday, Trump revealed that the Russian dictator had even told him that he won the 2020 election and that the election ‘was rigged because you have mail-in voting.’  The only thing more ridiculous than imagining that Putin (whose primary rival died in prison) is an expert on election integrity is to imagine that Putin has any ‘brotherly’ affection for the people of Ukraine, as he claimed in the post-summit news conference.

“Given Trump’s incoherent approach to the war in Ukraine, it is too soon to despair. Trump hinted to European leaders after the summit that he would be willing to extend a U.S. security guarantee to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement.  If true, that would be a significant win for Kyiv.  Trump is often influenced by the last person he talked to, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Washington Monday.

“Let’s hope that the next Trump-Zelensky meeting at the White House will be less tumultuous than the last one, which ended in a shouting match. But it’s unlikely to be as friendly as the Trump-Putin meetups.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump conducts foreign policy on personal instinct and tactical impulse, and his abrupt Friday turn on Russia and Ukraine is a classic illustration.  Whether it’s the start of a road to peace, or to appeasement, is impossible to know. We’re not sure if Mr. Trump knows himself.

“The President went into the summit promising ‘severe consequences’ if there was no agreement on a ceasefire.  He left the summit having dropped the ceasefire with no consequences in favor of Vladimir Putin’s wish for a long-term peace deal as the war continues.  Mr. Trump took new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil off the table.

“Mr. Trump also said the burden is now on Ukraine to close the deal.  European leaders told the press that, in his conversations with them, Mr. Trump said Mr. Putin demanded that he get all of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which would mean that Ukraine give up its main line of defense in the east.

“White House leaks to friendly media suggest Mr. Putin promised that, in return for Donetsk, he’ll stop his assault and won’t invade other countries.  No wonder Russian commentators and Putin allies were celebrating the summit’s results.  Their President ended his isolation in the West, made no public concessions, and can continue killing Ukrainians without further sanction.

“Mr. Putin’s promises are worse than worthless.  He has broken promise after promise to Ukraine and the West.  This includes the 1994 Budapest Memorandum promising to defend Ukraine against outside attack, and multiple Minsk agreements. He wants Donetsk because he would gain at the negotiating table what he hasn’t been able to conquer on the battlefield.  It would also make it easier to take more territory when he or his successor think the time is right to strike again.

“The silver lining is that European leaders say Mr. Trump told them Mr. Putin had agreed to accept ‘security guarantees’ for Ukraine.  The suggestion is that the U.S. might even be one of those guarantors, albeit outside NATO.  But Mr. Trump provided no details.

“For guarantees to have real deterrent effect, they would have to include foreign troops in Ukraine.  Kyiv would need the ability to build up its military and arms industry. The U.S. would have to provide intelligence and air power to back up the ground forces.  It isn’t clear if Mr. Trump or Mr. Putin would agree to any of this, and without the U.S. playing a significant role, European leaders may not be willing to deploy troops….

“The Europeans and Ukraine aren’t without leverage.  Mr. Trump would pay an enormous political price if he abandons Ukraine or tries to impose a deal on Mr. Putin’s terms. The President can say all he wants that this is Joe Biden’s war, not his.  But like it or not, what happens next is on his watch.  A defeat for Ukraine will echo at home and across the world for the rest of his Presidency.

“Mr. Trump has made his role as a peacemaker a major theme of his second term, and it’s an admirable ambition.  But the question is, as always, peace at what price?  Cunning adversaries like Mr. Putin and China’s Xi Jinping can sense that the desire for a Nobel Peace Prize can be exploited for far more substantive strategic gains.

“With his military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Mr. Trump began to re-establish the American deterrence that Barack Obama and Joe Biden gave away in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East. What Mr. Trump does next in Ukraine will decide if he builds on that success, or gives it away for a dubious declaration of peace in our time.”

Sunday night, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started.  No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE.  Some things never change!!!”

Zelensky responded in a post on X as he arrived in Washington Sunday evening that Putin used Crimea and the part of eastern Donbas region he had seized in 2014 “as a springboard for a new attack” in February 2022.

“Russia must end this war, which it itself started,” he wrote.  “And I hope that our joint strength with America, with our European friends, will force Russia into a real peace.”

Zelensky said the “so called” security guarantees that Ukraine received from Russia, the United States and Britain under a 1994 accord – in exchange for giving old Soviet nuclear weapons back to Russia – also had not worked.

“Of course, Crimea should not have been given up then, just as Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022,” he wrote.

Zelensky’s European allies traveled to Washington on Monday, anxious to find out what President Trump committed to at the summit with Putin and apprehensive that he’ll force Kyiv into making unpalatable concessions – the reinforcements consisting of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has become a key conduit between the European leaders and Trump, the two bonding over golf.

The idea was to give Zelensky backup in order to avoid a repeat of the disastrous February Oval Office meeting involving Zelensky, Trump and Vice President Vance that became an ugly shouting match.

Unease hangs over the allies, who have few options for pushing back on demands from Trump that Ukraine may oppose, and are skeptical that Putin really wants peace.

Trump told leaders in a weekend call that he’s open to U.S. involvement in guarantees for Ukraine’s security.

He also told allies he wanted to reach a deal quickly and would urge Ukraine to agree to one, with the goal of holding a Putin-Zelensky meeting within a week.  That’s a timeline many of the Europeans regard as too aggressive, given how many issues remain unresolved.

Trump apparently revealed elements of his conversations with Putin in calls with the allied leaders, without giving much detail.  Senior European diplomats privately vented frustration at the outcome, noting Putin was gaining the most from the summit.

European leaders were also weighing the fact that Trump’s own team sought to tamp down expectations for a quick solution.

Appearing on the Sunday news shows, envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN’s “State of the Union” that Putin had agreed to “robust” security guarantees for Ukraine, which he called a “game changer” in the negotiations.

The plan would essentially give Ukraine NATO-style security guarantees modeled after the alliance’s Article 5, which decrees an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.

These guarantees would not come from NATO, Witkoff said Sunday, but from the U.S. and other European allies.

“Everything is going to be about what the Ukrainians can live with, but assuming they could, we were able to win the following concession: that the United States could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in NATO,” Witkoff said.

Secretary of State Rubio said Sunday the sides have a long way to go to reach a peace deal, but that the U.S. was encouraged enough by what they heard Friday from the Russians to think it was worth moving forward.

Rubio added Trump and the U.S. had made it clear to Russia that it would need to make concessions to Ukraine, and that any deal in the end will have to be agreed to by Kyiv.

—

So then Monday, European leaders, including President Zelensky, gathered at the White House to seek commitments on Ukraine, and the Europeans won a potentially vital, if vague, expression of support from Mr. Trump for postwar security guarantees for Kyiv and sidestepped a discussion of territorial concessions, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.   They all but acquiesced to Trump’s abandonment of a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine as a condition for further talks.

At the end of the day, Europe’s leaders seemed to be essentially where they were before Trump’s meeting with Putin in Anchorage.  All the praise heaped by them on Trump, who reveled in it, was rather meaningless.

French President Emmanuel Macron said, “It is a step.  We are very far from declaring victory.”

Macron also told NBC News: “A great deal is a deal with security guarantees and a robust peace. As far as I’m concerned, when I look at the situation and the facts, I don’t see President Putin really willing to get peace now, but perhaps I’m too pessimistic.”

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. diplomat affiliated with Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation said Putin believes he can prevail on the battlefield, adding his terms for peace are not close to anything Ukraine would be willing to accept.

“Putin will only be prepared to bargain in a serious way when he is persuaded that he cannot achieve his goals on the battlefield and that the military, economic and political costs of continuing to try will only escalate,” Pifer added.  “Unfortunately, President Trump has not put in play the kind of cards…that might begin to change Putin’s mind.”

The White House had portrayed Russia’s supposed agreement to Western security guarantees as a major achievement of the summit with Putin.  After the Washington meeting with President Zelensky, Trump indicated his openness to U.S. military support for European troops that might be deployed in Ukraine after a peace deal.

Tuesday, Trump signaled that the U.S. is prepared to use air power to support a security force in Ukraine.  But there were zero specifics…was this air support to a European ground force? Would it include warplanes, air-defense systems, surveillance drones?

Trump said in an interview with “Fox & Friends,” “When it comes to security, they are willing to put people on the ground,” referring to the Europeans.  “We’re willing to help them with things, especially probably, if you talk about by air, because there is nobody has the kind of stuff we have.”

In an interview Wednesday on Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending the war are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control – including Ukrainian territory that Russia isn’t occupying.

“There really are two big questions lingering out there, and in some ways it’s very simple, but in some ways it’s very complicated,” Vance said to Fox’s Laura Ingraham.

“Number one is, Ukraine wants to know that it’s not going to get invaded again by Russia.  It wants to know that it’s got territorial integrity long into the future. The Russians want certain pieces of territory, most of which they’ve occupied, but some of which they haven’t,” he said.

But also Wednesday, Russia warned that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations.

And Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov played down the likelihood of a summit between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine occurring soon. He has argued that any summit between the leaders should be prepared “step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages.”

The White House had announced that President Putin agreed to an imminent summit, but Lavrov said the Kremlin merely accepted to raise the level of its representation at talks with Ukraine.

Lavrov’s insistence that Russia must have a say in how any security guarantees for Ukraine would be enacted contradicted the Trump administration’s assertion that Putin agreed to European and U.S. security guarantees at the Alaska summit.

Lavrov’s remarks were a potent sign that Moscow’s maximalist demands in the war haven’t shifted despite a surge in diplomatic engagement in recent days.  There is no peace deal without Western security assurances to deter against future Russian invasions.

Lavrov said any agreement on security guarantees should be based on the Russian proposal during the failed March 2022 peace talks between Russian and Ukraine.

According to that proposal, which Lavrov erroneously described as approved by Kyiv at the time, Russia would have a veto power on any action by the other guarantors of Ukrainian security – making those assurances pointless.  On Wednesday, Lavrov said China should also have equal powers in these guarantees.

“We will safeguard our legitimate interests in a firm and harsh manner,” Lavrov said.  “Seriously discussing issues of ensuring security without the Russian Federation is a utopia and a path to nowhere.”

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Moscow is sending a signal that it won’t accept anything that is precooked by the U.S. and Europeans in negotiations without the Russians at the table.

“Moscow’s hope is that the meeting between Putin and Trump has established their personal rapport and that substantive negotiations over Ukraine will be lengthy, buying Russia time to continue pushing Ukraine on the front line,” he said.

By week’s end, Putin is not giving up on his demand that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country.

Russia controls about 88% of the Donbas and 73% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to U.S. estimates and open-source data.

Last week, President Zelensky said of the Donbas region: “If we withdraw from the Donbas today – our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control – we will clearly open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal, Thursday p.m.

“The Trump-Putin Alaska summit followed by the visit of European leaders at the White House were supposed to jump-start momentum to end the Russia-Ukraine war.  A week later we are back at the same old stand, as Vladimir Putin is playing familiar tricks and showing no serious interest in a deal.  The question is what President Trump will do about it.

“Mr. Trump suggested this week that Mr. Putin wants peace and is open to a bilateral meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Where’s the evidence other than statements by Americans?  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday tossed all sorts of obstacles in the way of such a meeting, which Mr. Zelensky has long sought.

“Mr. Lavrov said Russia must play a role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine.  Oh, and its ally China should be at the table. That’s right: Mr. Putin thinks he should select the military forces that are supposed to deter him from restarting his conquest.  Meanwhile, Mr. Putin has launched some of the largest drone and missile attacks of the war, including targets in the west far from the front lines.

“This isn’t the behavior of someone interested in peace… Mr. Putin still thinks he can swallow Ukraine.

“The question now is how quickly Mr. Trump concludes he’s being played again, and the evidence is mixed….

“Mr. Trump’s hawkish turn this summer is arguably what prodded Mr. Putin to seek a summit after months of U.S. sweet-talk failed. All the happy smiles of diplomacy won’t make a difference unless Mr. Putin thinks that the cost to him of continuing the war is higher than the risk of ending it.

“It’s past time for Mr. Trump to apply secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. That might get China’s attention.  Here’s another idea: Confiscate each week a portion of the $300 billion in Russian reserves frozen in the West as long as the bombing continues.  The hard truth is that a durable peace in Ukraine isn’t likely without a much harder policy from Mr. Trump.”

–Meanwhile, the attacks continued.  Overnight Sunday, Russian attacks on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia killed ten, including two children.

President Zelensky said on social media: “This was an absolutely demonstrative and cynical Russian strike. They know that today a meeting is taking place in Washington to end the war.”

Tuesday, Russia launched 93 drones and two ballistic missiles into Ukraine, with at one point Germany scrambling two fighter jets to the Romanian-Ukrainian border.

Wednesday, Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles on western Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in recent weeks, Ukrainian officials said.  Nine were killed.

Ukraine’s air force counted 614 aerial vehicles among Russia’s overnight attacks, 577 of which it said it had stopped.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the mix included hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles.

“One of the missiles struck a major American electronics manufacturer in our westernmost region, leading to serious damage and casualties,” he wrote on social media. [Nineteen were injured at the plant.]

Thursday morning, President Zelensky said Russian forces were massing on the southern front line in the Zaporizhzhia region – one of the four regions Russia now claims as its own.

But overnight Thursday, Ukrainian forces obliterated a critical part of Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline – as Kyiv fought back against Moscow’s ramped-up attacks.

Ukraine bombed the Unecha oil pumping station in the Bryansk region, according to the commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, Robert Brovdi.

Footage posted on Telegram showed a huge inferno raging at a facility with multiple fuel tanks in the wake of the strike.

Bryansk regional Gov. Alexander Bogomaz said Ukraine had fired HIMARS rockets and drones at the region in a combined attack, setting the energy facility ablaze.

The Unecha station, which is a critical part of Russia’s Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline, supplies oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

The Hungarian and Slovakian governments both said supplies to their countries could be cut for at least five days in the wake of the latest strike.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

As he approached his big speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Friday morning (hosted by the Kansas City Fed), the expectation was that Chair Jerome Powell would view this as his last, or perhaps best chance to cement his legacy and make his case for the central bank’s independence, with political interference a constant headline these days.

The gathering brings together the world’s most influential central bankers, and this year’s conference is titled “Labor Markets in Transition,” with the focus on structural forces such as demographics, productivity, and immigration that are reshaping the U.S. job market and the broader economy.  And the theme speaks to Powell’s central challenge: how to fulfill the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment among the structural changes in the economy.

Of course we all awaited Powell’s pronouncements on inflation and tariffs, if any, to get a clue as to an anticipated cut in the benchmark funds rate come September, knowing he will fall back on the “we look at all the information beforehand” line, and understanding there are important data points yet to be revealed prior to the FOMC meeting (Sept. 16-17); one of which is next week’s PCE.

We had a release of the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the decision to hold interest rates steady last month was broadly supported despite the two dissents (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman).

The written account of the meeting suggested officials were divided over when they could be confident that higher import costs wouldn’t lead to a period of broader, rolling price hikes.  Some officials thought “a great deal could be learned in coming months” though others “noted that it would not be feasible or appropriate to wait for complete clarity on the tariffs’ effects on inflation before adjusting the stance of monetary policy.”

But this meeting was held before the awful July jobs report with its big downward revisions.

Meanwhile, President Trump demanded that a Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, “resign, now!!!,” citing unconfirmed allegations that she may have engaged in mortgage fraud as the administration ramped up its campaign to try to remake the central bank.

Trump unleased his latest attack shortly after Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said on social media that his office had investigated Ms. Cook (the first Black woman to ever serve as a Fed governor) and found that she appeared to have falsified bank documents to obtain favorable loan terms.

The president is limited in his ability to remove an official from the central bank, a protection recently reaffirmed by the Supreme Court. Policymakers on the Board of Governors can only be removed for “cause,” which legal experts define as breaking the law or gross misconduct.

Cook on Wednesday said she intended to remain at the Fed.

“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said in a statement.  “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”

Friday morning, Trump said he would fire Cook if she didn’t step down.

So what did Chair Powell say in Jackson Hole?

Well, the Street loved it, as Powell sent his strongest signal yet that the central bank is preparing to restart rate cuts, highlighting the labor market’s vulnerabilities even as inflation accelerates.

Powell held back from explicitly endorsing a reduction in September, but he emphasized the prospects of a weakening economic backdrop and that calls for a cut.

“The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” the chair said.  With borrowing costs weighing on the economy, the labor market softening and inflation risks contained, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

Powell highlighted the recent slowdown in monthly jobs growth; but questioned whether it was a function of a pullback in demand from companies or a reduction in the supply of workers resulting from President Trump’s immigration crackdown.  He said that left the labor market in a “curious kind of balance” that warranted caution.

“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said.  “And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

Powell stressed that inflation was still too high, but he sought to push back on concerns that the tariffs would lead to a persistent rise in price pressures.  Rather he said a “reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived – a one-time shift in the price level.”

“Of course, ‘one-time’ does not mean ‘all at once.’  It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks,” he added.

Powell also emphasized that the Fed was in a “challenging situation” given that the central bank’s two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market are now in tension with one another.  Against this backdrop, he said, the Fed would need to “proceed carefully” with its plans to reduce the degree of restraint it is imposing on the economy.

—

On the economic data front, just a few items on housing.  July housing starts were much higher than expected, 1.428 million annualized.

And existing-home sales of 4.01 million in July were also better than forecast, up 2.0% month-over-month, and 0.8% year-over-year.  [National Association of Realtors]

“The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  “Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”

The median existing-home sales price of $422,400 was up just 0.2% from a year ago.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is 2.3%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.58%, unchanged.

—

Regarding tariffs, President Trump said he was holding off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, citing progress he said was made with Vladimir Putin toward ending the war in Ukraine.

“Because of what happened today, I think I don’t have to think about that,” Trump said last Friday in a Fox News interview with Sean Hannity after his summit with Putin.  “Now, I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don’t have to think about that right now.”

But he doubled tariffs on India for its purchases of oil from Moscow starting Aug. 27.

I can’t help but note a passage from an essay on the stock market that Burton G. Malkiel, pressor emeritus of economics at Princeton University and the author of the Wall Street classic, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” penned for the New York Times the other day, regarding tariffs.

“We still do not know what the final tariff regime will be. A ‘permanent level of tariffs of 15 percent or more is still considerably higher than recent levels, and there is no certainty regarding their ultimate unhealthy effects on inflation and economic growth. Tariffs lead to higher prices unless they are totally absorbed by business, effectively shrinking their profit margins.  Tariffs also act as a tax on consumers, causing them to spend less on goods and services. Thus, tariffs worsen inflation while simultaneously suppressing economic activity.”

It’s also true that small business faces a massive issue with tariffs.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated this month that the country has about 236,000 small-business importers – those with fewer than 500 employees.  In 2023, the goods they bought from abroad were worth more than $868 billion.

As David E. Rovella of Bloomberg noted. “They now face a combined annual tariff hit of $202 billion and are finding it difficult to navigate all the red tape required to comply with the president’s levies.”

Big firms often have in-house resources to handle additional bureaucratic hurdles, but compliance and forecasting are “where the smaller companies are really struggling,” said Erin Williamson of Geodis, a leading global logistics firm.  “They may not have that internal compliance group or the infrastructure to really sit back and say, ‘OK, this is going to be the impact to us.  How do we pivot?’”

Lastly, on trade, reminder…these were “framework agreements” with the likes of Japan, South Korea, and the EU…they were not formal trade deals.

Monday, Germany assert that agreed-upon lowered tariffs on Europe-made cars would need to occur before the EU-US trade deal can be finalized in writing.

The European Union, meanwhile, is seeking to stop the U.S. from challenging its digital rules as both sides finalize a delayed statement on a trade deal reached last month.  EU officials said disputes over language on “non-tariff barriers,” which Washington says include the digital rules, have caused the delay.

U.S. trade partners that believed they had worked out agreements with President Trump to avoid the harshest tariffs – such as the exemption for UK steel – are still waiting for their “deals” to be sealed as economic consequences compound over time.

So Thursday, the United States and the EU published some details of their trade agreement in a joint statement.

European officials have been eager for a formal document, and what we had Thursday is not a legally enforceable pact, but it is a step toward one.

The U.S. will maintain a 15 percent tariff on most goods arriving from EU member countries, a rate that President Trump officially imposed in an executive order that took effect earlier this month.

In a win for Europe, that rate applies to some of its biggest exports, including pharmaceuticals, many of which will remain taxed at 15 percent even after the United States finalizes an expected set of tariffs for foreign-made medicines that could be as high as 200 percent.

But cars are more complicated.  The U.S. will not immediately relax for Europe tariffs it has imposed worldwide on foreign-made vehicles, currently set to 27.5 percent for European carmakers. Rather, the two sides agreed that the U.S. would lower those tariffs to 15 percent only after Europe takes steps to follow through on its commitments to lower tariffs on imported American goods.

Specifically, the bloc must “formally” introduce legislation that would relax duties on industrial goods and agricultural products, including bison, tree nuts, dairy and many types of seafood, before lower car tariffs can kick in.

But the tariffs would be lowered retroactively to the beginning of the month that the EU is able to take action.

Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s trade commissioner, said that the bloc was determined to start the legislative process this month, so lower car tariffs will eventually be counted as having started on Aug. 1.

Separately, today, Canada announced it was dropping retaliatory tariffs to match U.S. tariff exemptions for goods covered under the USMCA trade pact.

Europe and Asia

–We had flash August PMI readings for the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global / Hamburg Commercial Bank.  The composite was at 51.1, a 15-month high.  Manufacturing 52.3 (41-mo. high), services 50.7. [50 the dividing line between growth and recession.]

Germany: manufacturing 52.6 (41-mo. high), services 50.1.
France: mfg. 49.8, services 49.7.

UK: mfg. 49.5, services 53.6 (12-mo. high)

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia / Hamburg Commercial Bank

“Things are getting better.  Economic activity has picked up in both manufacturing and services.  Overall, we’ve seen a slight acceleration in growth over the past three months.  Despite headwinds like U.S. tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the eurozone seem to be coping reasonably well.  The EU Single Market is likely playing a helpful role here, especially since most export and tourism revenues are generated within the EU.

“The European Central Bank might wince a little at the rising cost pressures in the services sector.  After all, it’s banking on slower wage growth to help bring inflation down in this crucial part of the economy.  That said, there’s a bit of relief in the fact that inflation in service-sector selling prices has remained more or less steady.”

[Separately, Germany said Friday that its economy shrank 0.3% in the second quarter over the first, after Q1 growth was up 0.3%. The difference was in the first three months of 2025, you had a major push to front-load exports to the U.S. ahead of the tariffs, and production then decreased in the second quarter.]

Eurostat released the July inflation readings for the euro area, 2.0%, stable compared to June.  A year earlier the rate was 2.6%.  Ex-food and energy the figure was 2.4%, same as June, and down from 2.8% last year.

Headline inflation….

Germany 1.8%, France 0.9%, Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.7%, Netherlands 2.5%, Ireland 1.6%, Greece 3.7%.

Turning to Asia…no big data points from China this week.

Japan’s flash PMI readings for August had manufacturing at 49.9, services 52.7.

July inflation was 3.1% vs. 3.3% prior; ex-food and energy 3.4%, unchanged.

July exports fell 2.6% year-over-year, a little worse than consensus; imports down 7.5%.

Street Bytes

—Following Jerome Powell’s comments, equities exploded upward, the Dow Jones finally reaching a new all-time high at 45631, up 1.5%.  But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell shy of highs they set the week before; the S&P rising 0.3%, and Nasdaq falling 0.6%, despite a 1.9% advance today.

Next week it’s all about Nvidia in terms of earnings reports. [Dell’s EPS could also be enlightening.]

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.03%  2-yr. 3.69%  10-yr. 4.26%  30-yr. 4.88%

Treasuries were largely unchanged through Thursday, awaiting Chair Powell’s remarks.  And right before he made them, the yield on the 2-year was 3.78%, the yield on the 10-year 4.30%, as the odds for a September rate cut had fallen from last week’s 98 percent to under 70 percent Friday morning.

But following Powell’s bullish comments, it was back to 100 percent for a September cut, and 100 percent for December.  Treasuries rallied, though not to the lows we saw after the ‘tame’ CPI report of a week ago, that was then reversed by a much higher-than-expected PPI release.

Next week we get the critical personal consumption expenditures index report (PCE) that Powell today said he expected to be 2.9% on core.

And prior to the next FOMC meeting, Sept. 16-17, we still have another jobs report, and CPI/PPI data for August.

—Crude oil struggled after Trump’s summit with President Zelensky and European leaders.  Any resolution to the war could lead to an end to sanctions on Russian energy exports, allowing Russian crude to trade freely.  Oil prices were already under pressure from trade tensions and rising OPEC+ output.

—Walmart shares fell 4% after the nation’s largest retailer reported increases in second-quarter profits and sales Thursday as it continues to pull in price-sensitive shoppers for everyday essentials like groceries despite a challenging tariff environment.  The Bentonville, Arkansas-based company also increased its annual profit and sales outlook.

But in terms of investors, WMT didn’t clear the bar high enough.

The company said it earned $7.03 billion, or 88 cents per share, for the three-month period ended July 31. That compares with $4.50 billion, or 56 cents per share, a year ago.  Sales rose nearly 5% to $177.4 billion.

Analysts were expecting 73 cents per share on sales of $175.93 billion for the quarter.

Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6% in the latest quarter, a tick better than the 4.5% gain in the fiscal first quarter.  The business was fueled by groceries and health and wellness items, the company said.

Global e-commerce sales rose 25%, above the 22% growth in the fiscal first quarter.

The company said Thursday it expects earnings per share in the range of 58 cents to 60 cents for the current quarter, with analysts at 57 cents.

Walmart also expects sales to be up anywhere from 3.75% to 4.75% for the current period.

The guidance for the year, earnings per share in a range of $2.52 to $2.62, was disappointing with the Street at $2.62.

Walmart said back in May that prices had started to increase in late April and got higher in May.  But it said a bigger sting would start to be felt in June and July when the back-to-school shopping season went into high gear.  CEO Doug McMillon said the company’s tariff costs are increasing each week.  He expects that to continue into the third and fourth quarters of the year.

—Home Depot shares rose 3% Tuesday after the company said sales improved during its fiscal second quarter as consumers remained focused on smaller projects amid cost concerns and economic uncertainty, but its performance missed the Street’s consensus.

Revenue for the three months ended Aug. 3 climbed to $45.28 billion from $43.18 billion, but were shy of the $45.41 analysts’ forecast.

In the U.S., same-store sales were 1.4%, a tick lower than the 1.6% analysts’ expected.  That marks the third straight quarter of positive comps in Home Depot’s home market.  The company hasn’t reported three consecutive quarters of U.S. same-store sales growth since the third quarter of 2022.

Customer transactions declined less than 1% in the quarter. The amount shoppers spent rose to $90.01 per average receipt from $88.90 in the prior-year period.

“Our second quarter results were in line with our expectations,” Chair and CEO Ted Decker said in a statement.  “The momentum that began in the back half of last year continued throughout the first half as customers engaged more broadly in smaller home improvement projects.”

Home improvement retailers like Home Depot have been dealing with homeowners putting off bigger projects because of increased borrowing costs and lingering concerns about inflation.

Plus, the U.S. housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows.  And you see the above existing-home sales data, while a little better, is still soft.

HD earned $4.55 billion, or $4.58 per share, for the second quarter.  A year ago, the company earned $4.56 billion, or $4.60 per share.  Adjusted earnings were $4.68 per share vs. the Street’s $4.72 per share forecast.

Home Depot did not provide Q3 guidance.  In the prior quarter though, the company said the chain has not stockpiled inventory due to tariffs like some retailers, but “in-stock rates have never been better.”

The company also said it continues to diversity its sourcing instead of raising prices, and that in a year, “no single country outside of the United States will represent more than 10% of our purchases.”

But management did say “there will be some modest price movement in some categories.”

As in companies can’t eat the costs forever and eventually the tariffs will bleed into consumer prices.

Bottom line, for today investors liked that HD has reported the three consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth.

–Home Deport rival Lowe’s stock rose after it raised its forecast for 2025 and reported a return to same-store sales growth after a decline to start the year.

Comp sales rose 1.1%, compared to a 1.3% jump the Street expected.

The company also announced a deal to acquire Foundation Building Materials for approximately $8.8 billion.

“This quarter, the company delivered the positive comp sales driven by solid performance in both Pro and DIY [do it yourself],” CEO Marvin Ellison said in the release.  “Despite challenging weather early in the quarter, our teams drove both sales growth and improved profitability.”

The home improvement chain reported earnings per share in the second quarter of $4.33 on an adjusted basis, better than consensus of $4.24.  Revenue came in at $23.96 billion, with the Street at $23.98bn.

The company raised its guidance for the 2025 fiscal year, with total sales now projected to be in a range of $84.5 billion-$85.5 billion, up from a prior range of $83.5 billion-$84.5bn, while same-store sales are still expected to be flat to up 1% year over year.

Tariff uncertainty remains top of mind, too, with Lowe’s sourcing 20% of its sales from China, including items like ceiling fans, small appliances, and tools.  Executives said on the investor call that the company is seeking to limit exposure to China.  So there’s a difference between Lowe’s and Home Depot on this front, HD bragging that 50% of its products are sourced domestically.

—Target’s second quarter earnings narrowly beat consensus forecasts as it wrung out cost savings.  The company also maintained the full-year outlook it slashed three months ago.

But headwinds from a pressured U.S. consumer, an influx of tariffs from the Trump administration, market-share loss to Walmart, and operational challenges remain.

Target’s comparable sales fell 1.9% from a year ago, led by a 3.2% drop at its stores.  Comparable digital sales increased 4.3%.  Gross profit margins declined to 29% from 30% a year ago.

Second quarter net sales came in at $25.2 billion, above estimates.  Earnings per share also beat at $2.05 per share.

Full-year earnings per share are projected to be $7 to $9, compared to estimates of $7.28.  Comparable sales will decline by a low-single-digit percentage.

The original 2025 guidance was $8.80 to $9.80.

“While we’re not pleased with the results, we’re encouraged by the improved performance as we go into the third quarter of the year,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said in an interview.

Prior to earnings day, Target’s stock was down 23% in 2025, compared to Walmart’s 13% gain.

The shares then fell another 6% on Wednesday.

But fixing what ails Target is now going to be someone else’s responsibility.

The discounter announced that Cornell will be succeeded by the heavily groomed No. 2, Michael Fiddelke, who will take over as CEO on Feb. 1, 2026.  Cornell, who has been at the helm since August 2014, will slide into the executive chair position.  Fiddelke joined Target in 2003 as an intern and rose through the ranks to CFO and then COO.  Investors wanted real change.  This wasn’t it.

—T.J. Maxx parent TJX saw its shares rise nearly 3% as the retailer raised its full-year profit outlook after logging higher-than-expected earnings and sales in the latest quarter, as consumers flocked to the company’s stores in search of values and deals.

The operator of discount retailers, including Marshalls and Homegoods, now expects comparable sales to grow 3% this year, compared with a prior outlook for same-store sales to rise 2% to 3%. It additionally raised its earnings outlook to between $4.52 and $4.57 a share from its prior expectation of $4.34 to $4.43 a share.

TJX posted a profit of $1.24 billion for its three months ending Aug. 2, compared with $1.1 billion in last year’s comparable quarter.  Quarterly earnings of $1.10 a share came in ahead of the $1.01 a share that Wall Street forecast.

Sales increased 6.9% to $14.4 billion, topping the $14.14 billion that analysts expected.

–The Air Canada flight attendants strike lasted through the weekend into Monday, causing massive chaos in the Canadian travel system, the airline canceling all its flights.  By Monday, 500,000 passengers had been impacted, scrambling to find their way to their final destination and/or home, especially those traveling overseas.

The government said they needed to return to work, the union representing the 10,500 flight staff told the members they could ignore the order.

But the attendants and the carrier reached agreement on Tuesday, ending the strike, the first by the cabin crew in 40 years.

Air Canada then gradually resumed operations, with full restoration in a week or so.  Customers with canceled flights can choose between a refund, travel credit, or rebooking on another airline.

The main issue with the flight attendants was that they were only paid for the hours the flight was in the air, not for during the boarding process.  Now, though, they will be compensated for their time on the ground.

Air Canada agreed to boarding pay at half the normal hourly rate for the first year of the agreement, escalating over the four-year term to 70% of hourly rates, the union said.

I have to admit…I had no idea flight attendants weren’t paid for boarding the flight.  It’s only a recent move in the U.S., Delta Air Lines the first in 2022.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

8/21…118 percent of 2024 levels
8/20…102
8/19…81
8/18…97
8/17…124
8/16…86
8/15…102
8/14…119

—Intel shares rose after it announced a $2 billion investment from Japan’s SoftBank.  The chipmaker’s shares had fallen about 50% since the start of 2024.

SoftBank bought the shares at $23 each, the stock trading above $25 after the announcement Tuesday (but then falling back Wednesday).  The move is seen as a vote of confidence for Intel, which, it is well-chronicled, has been playing catch-up in an industry that has chased the artificial intelligence boom.

The announcement came amid reports that Intel was talking to President Trump about the government taking a stake in the company of up to 10%, according to multiple reports, which the administration then confirmed Tuesday.  Intel was set to receive about $8 billion under the 2022 Chips and Science Act for a plant in Ohio that has been delayed.

SoftBank is part of a consortium behind Stargate, a joint venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI and Oracle that was formed to build out data centers and AI infrastructure in the U.S.

SoftBank is also the majority owner of Arm, which mostly licenses semiconductor designs but aims to make its own chips as soon as this year.  Intel will thus benefit from the validation of a big new client as it tries to ramp up U.S. production with new processes.

[This afternoon President Trump reaffirmed the U.S. government is indeed taking a 10% stake in INTC, and she shares rallied.]

—Palo Alto Networks’ fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat Wall Street expectations in all its major metrics, as well as in its guidance for the 2026 first quarter and fiscal year.  Fourth-quarter revenue rose 16% to $2.5 billion and adjusted earnings were 95 cents a share, both handily beating consensus.

Its backlog of work stood at $15.8 billion, up 24% since the end of last fiscal year, and ahead of expectations by 3.6%.

While Palo Alto is a leader in cybersecurity with $9.2 billion in sales in fiscal 2025, and $3.5 billion in free cash flow, a proposed acquisition is casting a shadow over the company.  On July 30, Palo Alto announced its intent to buy CyberArk Software, which would extend its portfolio of services into identity security, where CyberArk is a leader.

The fit between the two companies makes sense, but Palo Alto shareholders weren’t happy with the price being paid and the shares fell 10% after the announcement, before recovering last week.

But the shares rose solidly following the earnings, as the company also forecast revenue and earnings for the fiscal first quarter at $2.46 billion and 89 cents a share, both above expectations.  It sees full year 2026 revenue in a range of $10.48 billion to $10.53 billion, also above current forecasts.

–In an article in The Verge the other day, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told reporters that he thinks the AI market is in a bubble.

“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI?  My opinion is yes.  Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time?  My opinion is also yes,” Altman said.

OpenAI is in talks to sell $6 billion in shares owned by its current and former employees to investors in a secondary market sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, according to reports.

That would make OpenAI the world’s most valuable privately held company.  Its valuation has moved from $157 billion in October to $300 billion in March.

—SpaceX’s Starship is slated to launch its tenth test flight as early as Aug. 24.  It’s been one failure after another and SpaceX needs tome success, since the failed launch of each Starship accrues to SpaceX’s bottom line and it’s hurting SpaceX’s valuation.

SpaceX has had great success with its Falcon rocket program, which added the Dragon capsule to deliver cargo and people to space, but the majority of the company’s revenue comes from Starlink, which relies on a massive system of satellites in low-Earth orbit that beam broadband internet to Earth.

To make Starship work, SpaceX is having to draw resources away from its core rocket program at a time when the company faces weak competition.

Starship is meant to be the primary vehicle to start a base on Mars – the reason that Elon Musk has said he created SpaceX in the first place.

SpaceX maintains that Starship will be landing people on the moon within a few years, but Musk said he’d put men on the moon in 2023.

Starship has yet to complete a full orbit of the Earth.

Fingers crossed with the next launch.  We need Starship.

—Walt Disney’s new ESPN streaming app launched on Thursday, giving sports fans something to cheer for, but potentially spelling trouble for traditional cable providers.

The direct-to-consumer platform is available in either the ESPN Unlimited Plan or the ESPN Select Plan.  Unlimited subscribers will pay $29.99 a month and get access to all of ESPN’s linear networks and 47,000 live events a year.

The Select Plan costs $11.99 a month and brings subscribers access to all content on the streaming platform, plus more than 32,000 live sports events annually.  I’ve long been a Select Plan subscriber and it’s been fantastic, allowing me to pick up Wake Forest football and basketball games I wouldn’t otherwise see.

But Disney’s launch of the new streaming platform could hasten the shift away from traditional T.V. as fewer people may want to pay for cable if they can get access to all their favorite content through different streaming providers.

—McDonald’s is lowering the cost of its combo meals, after consumers were left sticker-shocked by Big Mac meals that climbed to $18 in some places. [Another reason why fast-casual dining establishments like Chili’s are making a comeback.]

The burger giant’s move follows weeks of discussion between McDonald’s and restaurant operators, including the company offering financial support if franchisees agreed to drop prices.

After pitching operators on the plan, McDonald’s and its U.S. franchisees agreed to keep the cost of eight popular combo meals 15% below the sum of the individual items’ prices, the Wall Street Journal reported.  Such as $5 breakfast and $8 Big Mac and McNuggets combo-meal specials later this year, marketing them as Extra Value Meals.

“Customers are telling us they need more of the everyday value and affordability that defines the McDonald’s brand,” said Joe Erlinger, head of McDonald’s U.S. business, in an internal message following the company earnings report earlier this month.

Foreign Affairs

Israel/Gaza:

—Hamas accepted a new cease-fire proposal for Gaza put forward by Qatar and Egypt that would see the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

The plan would require Israel to redeploy its forces in Gaza, and it would allow enough humanitarian aid to enter the territory to meet the needs of Palestinians, officials said.

The latest terms are similar to those that Israel had previously accepted and they include both a temporary cease-fire and a path to an agreement to end the war.

Up to 20 hostages are still believed to be living, according to the Israeli authorities.  The bodies of 30 others, they say, are also being held in Gaza.

But then far-right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition denounced the proposed cease-fire deal, illustrating the pressure he was under over this latest proposal, which would force him to forego his stated plan to send the military into Gaza City.

Itamar Ben Gvir, the national security minister, said on Monday that Netanyahu does not have a “mandate to go to a partial deal.”

Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, rejected what he called “stopping in the middle with a partial deal that abandons half of the hostages and that could lead to the suspension of the war in defeat.”

“It is forbidden to surrender and give a lifeline to the enemy,” he said.

Netanyahu relies on the support of Smotrich’s and Ben Gvir’s parties to maintain the stability of his government.

—Hundreds of thousands of Israelis stayed home from work, flooded city streets, and blocked roads and highways across the country on Sunday, according to local media, staging some of the largest anti-war protests in months as the military prepares for a major assault on Gaza City, the humanitarian crisis deepens and anxiety mounts over the conditions of the remaining hostages.

The widespread strike in Israel on Sunday, a workday in Israel, was organized by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, an umbrella group representing many families of current or former Israeli hostages.

Senior military leaders and a growing number of Israeli citizens oppose the plan to take Gaza City, worried it would endanger the hostages still alive, further strain army resources and erode prospects for recovering the bodies of the 30 or more still in Hamas’ possession.

Chief opponents of Prime Minister Netanyahu – including Yair Lapid, a member of the centrist Yesh Atid party, and former defense minister Yoav Gallant – were out with the crowds in Tel Aviv on Sunday, meeting with the hostage families.

—President Trump posted on Truth Social Monday morning:

“We will only see the return of the remaining hostages when Hamas is confronted and destroyed!!!  The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be.  Remember, I was the one who negotiated and got hundreds of hostages freed and released into Israel (and America!).  I was the one who ended 6 wars, in just 6 months.  I was the one who OBLITERATED Iran’s Nuclear facilities.  Play to WIN, or don’t play at all!  Thank you for your attention to this matter!  President DJT”

—The Israeli military (IDF) then said it is calling up about 60,000 reservists ahead of a planned ground offensive to capture Gaza City.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Wednesday that the Gaza operation “can only lead to disaster for both peoples and risks plunging the entire region into a cycle of permanent war.”

Israel then said it had begun the first stages of the ground offensive to take the city, establishing footholds on the outskirts.  Netanyahu said he was “shortening the timelines” for seizing what he described as “the last terror strongholds” in Gaza.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza City are expected to be ordered to evacuate and head to southern Gaza as preparations for Israel’s takeover plan get under way.

—Israel gave final approval on the controversial settlement project I wrote of last week, the parcel known as E1, an open tract of land east of Jerusalem that has been under consideration for more than two decades, but was frozen due to U.S. pressure during previous administrations.  The project effectively cuts the West Bank in two, which Palestinians and rights groups say could destroy plans for a future Palestinian state.

On Wednesday, the Planning and Building Committee gave final approval. If the process moves quickly, infrastructure work could begin in the next few months and construction of homes could start in around a year.

You will hear much more about this item in the coming months.

–Today, Friday, the world’s leading authority on food crises said the Gaza Strip’s largest city is gripped by famine, and that it is likely to spread across the territory without a ceasefire and an end to restrictions on humanitarian aid.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification said famine is occurring in Gaza City.

The IPC determination comes after months of warnings by aid groups that Israel’s restrictions of food and other aid into Gaza, and its military offensive, were causing high levels of starvation among Palestinian civilians, particularly children.

[Israel says enough food is getting in, but that UN aid agencies aren’t doing their job in distributing it. The aid agencies would say there is no security.]

—President Truman praised Prime Minister Netanyahu as a “war hero” for ordering his country’s forces to bombard Iran’s nuclear sites then said that the same label should apply to himself.

In an interview Tuesday with Mark Levin, the conservative talk show host and author who is a prominent supporter of the president, Trump described Netanyahu as a “good man.”

“He’s a war hero, because we work together.  He’s a war hero,” Trump said.  “I guess I am too,” he added.

Not quite, Mr. President.

China: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi highlighted to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi how dialogue between their countries have been revived, as the two met this week.

“Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity,” the Indian leader wrote on X after his meeting with Wang on Tuesday.

There remain serious border issues between the two.

Meanwhile, speaking in a Fox News interview on his way to Anchorage for his summit with President Putin, Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping told him he would not “move on” Taiwan as long as Trump remained in office.

“I don’t believe there’s any way it’s going to happen as long as I’m here,” Trump said.  “He’ll never do it as long as you’re president, President Xi told me that.”

One more…President Xi is reportedly not going to attend a major summit of Asian leaders in October, according to Reuters, citing two sources, dashing expectations of a potential meeting with President Trump at the event.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who attended another ASEAN summit with Gulf leaders in May, is expected to represent China at the October gathering.

North Korea: The North has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the U.S. mainland, according to a new report.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has identified what it believes is a secret base near the village of Sinpung-dong, about 17 miles from the Chinese border.

According to CSIS, construction of the base started around 2004 and it became operational a decade later.  Until recently, however, the site remained undisclosed.  CSIS used interviews with informed sources, as well as declassified documents, satellite images and open-source information, to identify the base.

Sinpung-dong is one of roughly 15 to 20 of North Korea’s undeclared ballistic-missile bases and support facilities spread across the nation, according to CSIS.  The missiles stored at many of the sites can carry nuclear warheads.

The Sinpung-dong base could also be designed to accommodate mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles using solid fuel.  These types of ICBMs can be fired from massive trucks that can move around to evade detection.  The fact that they contain solid-propellant engines means the missiles can be largely pre-fueled and kept out of sight, ready to go in case of a conflict. [CNN.com]

“It’s not good news at all,” said Victor D. Cha, a co-author of the CSIS report and a former U.S. National Security Council official.  “North Korea wouldn’t need a lot of time to fire these things, making it hard to take them out before they launch.”

Meanwhile, South Korea and the United States began their annual large-scale joint military exercise on Monday to better cope with threats by nuclear-armed North Korea, which has warned the drills would deepen regional tensions and vowed to respond to “any provocation” against its territory.

The 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield, the second of two large-scale exercises held annually in South Korea, after another set in March, will involve 21,000 soldiers, including 18,000 South Koreans, in computer-simulated command post operations and field training.

The drills, which the allies describe as defensive, could trigger a response from North Korea.

In a statement last week, North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Choi said the drills show the allies’ stance of “military confrontation” with the North and declared that its forces would be ready to counteract “any provocation going beyond the boundary line.”

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 37% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove.  29% of independents approve (July 7-21).

Rasmussen: 49% approve, 49% disapprove (Aug. 22)…no change from last week.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has President Trump’s approval rating at 40%, matching the lowest level of his current term, amid weak ratings from Hispanic voters.

Trump received a 47% approval rating from this survey when he was inaugurated.

But the latest poll showed Hispanics, a group that swung toward Trump in last year’s election, have soured on the president. Some 32% approved of his performance, matching a low for the year.

More than half of respondents – 54%, including one in five Republicans – said they thought Trump was too closely aligned with Russia, even as he ramped up a push to broker peace.

—Trump musings….

Sunday night: “One year ago, the United States was an almost DEAD COUNTRY. Now we are the ‘HOTTEST’ Country anywhere in the world, the envy of all. What a difference a President makes!!!”

Monday morning: “I am totally convinced that if Russia raised their hands and said, ‘We give up, we concede, we surrender, we will GIVE Ukraine and the great United States of America, the most revered, respected, and powerful of all countries, EVER, Moscow and St. Petersburg, and everything surrounding them for a thousand miles, the Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners would say that this was a bad and humiliating day for Donald J. Trump, one of the worst days in the history of our Country.’  But that’s why they are the FAKE NEWS, and the badly failing Radical Left Democrats. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!”

Tuesday afternoon: “The Museums throughout Washington, but all over the Country are, essentially, the last remaining segment of ‘WOKE.’  The Smithsonian is OUT OF CONTROL, where everything discussed is how horrible our Country is, how bad Slavery was, and how unaccomplished the downtrodden have been – Nothing about Success, nothing about Brightness, nothing about the Future. We are not going to allow this to happen, and I have instructed my attorneys to go through the Museums, and start the exact same process that has been done with Colleges and Universities, where tremendous progress has been made.  This Country cannot be WOKE, because WOKE IS BROKE!   We have the ‘Hottest’ Country in the World, and we want people to talk about it, including in our Museums.”

Lonnie Bunch III, the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, told Smithsonian Magazine that part of the purpose of one facility, the National Museum of African American History and Culture, “was to help a nation understand itself – an impossible task without the full recognition of the horrors of slavery.”

Friday morning: “The United States is the ‘Hottest’ Country anywhere in the World.  There is no other Country that is even close…And just think, one year ago, we were a ‘DEAD’ Country, with no hope of ever seeing GREATNESS AGAIN! But that all changed on Election Day, November 5th, 2024. LANDSLIDE!!!”

—The conservative network Newsmax will pay $67 million to settle a lawsuit accusing it of defaming a voting equipment company by spreading lies about President Trump’s 2020 election loss, according to documents filed Monday.

The settlement comes after Fox News Channel paid $787.5 million to settle a similar lawsuit in 2023 and Newsmax paid what court papers describe as $40 million to settle a libel lawsuit from a different voting machine manufacturer, Smartmatic, which also was a target of pro-Trump conspiracy theories on the network.

Delaware Superior Court Judge Eric Davis ruled earlier that Newsmax did indeed defame Denver-based Dominion Voting Systems by airing false information about the company and its equipment. But Davis left it to a jury to eventually decide whether that was done with malice, and, if so, how much Dominion deserved from Newsmax in damages.  Newsmax and Dominion reached the settlement before the trial could take place.

The settlement was disclosed by Newsmax on Monday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Coincidentally, Trump then posted the same day that he vowed to eliminate mail-in ballots and voting machines such as those supplied by Dominion and other companies.

“I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN-BALLOTS, and also, while we’re at it, Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES, which cost Ten Times more than accurate and sophisticated Watermark Paper, which is faster, and leaves NO DOUBT, at the end of the evening, as to who WON, and who LOST, the Election.  We are now the only Country in the World that used Mail-In Voting.  All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED.  WE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections.  Remember, the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes.  They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do… Democrats are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM… REMEMBER, WITHOUT FAIR AND HONEST ELECTIONS, AND STRONG AND POWERFUL BORDERS, YOU DON’T HAVE EVEN A SEMBLANCE OF A COUNTRY.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTOIN TO THIS MATTER!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”

Oh brother.

As Boston College’s Heather Cox Richardson observed after the Trump screed: “The Constitution is very clear that no president has the power to dictate elections rules,” because “The framers were determined to prevent that power from falling into the hands of a potential dictator and so gave it to the states and Congress.”

One significant concern for the months ahead: Trump and his team appear to be “preparing to reject any election results that they don’t like,” Richardson warns. [Defense One]

—George F. Will / Washington Post

“There was a story about a woman who had been asked to christen a Portland yard ship but arrived too late; it had already been launched.  ‘Just keep standing there, ma’am,’ she was told, ‘there’ll be another along in a minute.’” – Arthur Herman, “Freedom’s Forge.”

“In February 1900, a 20-year-old immigrant from Denmark arrived in New York, destitute of everything except his ambition to build bicycles.  In Linz, Austria, that day, the son of Alois and Klara Hitler was 10. He became an aspiring but untalented artist who finds another career.

“The immigrant and the Austrian never met, but their lives intersected in a way pertinent to today.  U.S. military aid for Ukraine has been inhibited by this: Our nation, which faces global challenges from two near-peer adversaries, has chosen to not have an adequate defense industrial base.

“It was similarly unprepared in the late 1930s. Then it chose to be as serious as the darkening world was.  In his exhilarating 2012 book, historian Herman, now at the Hudson Institute, tells how the nation magnificently marshalled its talents for making things, and saved civilization.

“In 1937, the Danish immigrant, William Knudsen, had risen from the factory floor to the apex of the automobile industry as General Motors’ president.  On May 28, 1940, as France was falling, President Franklin D. Roosevelt called: ‘I want you to work on some production matters.’  That bland job description disguised Knudsen’s task of turning the Army, then barely larger than that of the Netherlands, and the rest of the U.S. military from a small, somnolent and technologically stagnant force into an emanation of U.S. industrial might.

“When in 1940 FDR vowed production of 50,000 planes a year (the Army Air Corps then had about 1,700, most of them small and old), Hitler scoffed: ‘What is America but beauty queens, millionaires, stupid records, and Hollywood.’  ‘He was,’ Herman writes, ‘about to find out.’

By 1945, American white-collar business executives and engineers, and properly valorized blue-collar workers, had produced two-thirds of all the Allies’ war materiel: 86,000 tanks, 2.5 million trucks, 286,000 planes, 8,800 naval vessels, 5,600 merchant ships, 434 million tons of steel, 2.6 million machine guns, 41 billion rounds of ammunition, etc.  Working at frenzied paces, often in hastily improvised workplaces with dangerous equipment and red-hot rivets, Herman writes, ‘workers in war-related industries in 1942-43 died or were injured in numbers twenty times greater than the American servicemen killed or wounded during those same years.’

“In 1939, the U.S. steel industry had its lowest capacity in 20 years, and the shipbuilding industry was producing four vessels a month.  But in late 1939, a woman who had lived in Pittsburgh for most of a decade saw smoke billowing from nearby hills.  She called the police, who said: ‘That’s no fire, lady. Them’s the mills.’  The giant was awakening.

“With the indefatigable Knudsen setting the tone and pace, in mere months, U.S. industrialists planted shipyards and steel mills on mudflats and empty fields.  In four years, the Richmond yard near San Francisco launched 747 prefabricated ships.

“Herman says this was the fruit of ‘spontaneous order.’: ‘It was the most powerful and flexible system of wartime production ever devised, because in the end no one devised it.’  This ‘industrial exuberance’ sprang from the nimble adaptability of America’s market economy.

“Today, Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine is rousing European nations from their military slumbers.  For example, Germany now has the world’s fourth-biggest defense budget and has loosened debt restraints for defense spending to become kriegstuchtig – war-ready, in the defense minister’s terminology.

“The United States is not ready.  The Economist reports, ‘At current rates of procurement it will take seven years to bring America’s ammunition stocks back to where they were before military aid to Ukraine began.’ In a Washington think tank’s 2023 war game simulating a conflict with China over Taiwan, the U.S. inventory of long-range missiles was exhausted in three weeks.

“The Economist also reports that in 2022, just after Russia attacked Ukraine, Poland ordered ‘a big batch’ of U.S. Abrams tanks from the Joint Systems Manufacturing Center in Ohio, which since 1942 has been the main U.S. factory for armored vehicles. America no longer makes completely new Abrams tanks.  Instead, the JSMC ‘refurbishes stripped-back hulls and turrets from old models, which are kept in storage in Alabama.’  Refitting one tank takes about two years.  Poland has yet to receive most of the Abrams tanks it ordered three years ago.

“Poland needs tanks. The United States needs a new Knudsen.”

—Texas Democrats ended a two-week walkout over Republican plans to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Dozens of House Democrats fled the state earlier this month in an attempt to thwart a Republican redistricting effort that would result in the GOP gaining five new seats.

Texas House Democrats Monday confirmed they were back in Austin and ready to end their 15-day quorum-break, after encouraging states such as California to take measures to counter Texas’ proposed redistricting.

But, as expected, the state House on Wednesday passed the new election map on an 88-52 party-line vote.

The electoral blueprint creates five new congressional districts where Trump won by double digits last year.

Ahead of the vote, Trump on social media urged Texas Republicans to “work as fast as they can to get THIS MAP to Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk, ASAP,” referring to it as “ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL CONGRESSIONAL MAP!”

The state Senate is expected to vote later today.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom vowed to retaliate, but former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading a move to keep the state’s independent redistricting committee, and the people are on the Terminator’s side…as am I…thus far.

The California legislature then approved the redistricting initiative Thursday, but the state’s voters have the final say on Nov. 4.

—Federal prosecutors in D.C. have been instructed not to seek felony charges against people who are carrying rifles or shotguns in the nation’s capital, regardless of the strength of the evidence, according to U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro.

The new policy, which was crafted by the Justice Department, makes a break with past practice.

The shift comes at an unexpected time – just as the Trump administration ramps up federal law enforcement to unprecedented levels on the streets of D.C. in a bid to decrease crime rates – and complicates the White House’s boasts of seizing dozens of guns as part of President Trump’s surge.  The White House said the enhanced law enforcement teams had seized 68 firearms as of Tuesday morning.

Pirro, a fierce ally of Trump’s, said her office would continue charging crimes of violence or firearms trafficking that involved shotguns or rifles.

Pirro told the New York Post that D.C.’s blanket prohibition on carrying shotguns or rifles “is clearly a violation of the Supreme Court’s holdings” in two landmark cases expanding the right to bear arms.

If you are a little confused, you’re not alone.

Separately, the administration is paring down its takeover of the Washington, D.C., police department, after being ordered by a federal judge to come to a temporary truce with city officials.

In a new order issued last weekend, Attorney General Pam Bondi said the head of the federal Drug Enforcement Administration would only act as a liaison between the Trump administration and the Metropolitan Police Department’s chief, rather than becoming the emergency police commissioner as had previously been announced.

This afternoon, in comments to the press, President Trump said his next target is Chicago.

–As reported by Defense One and the Washington Post, the Army has been tasked with protecting the ex-wives of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as part of a “sprawling, multimillion-dollar initiative” that spans family residences in Minnesota, Tennessee and D.C., the Post reported Wednesday.  However, the “unusually large personal security requirements are straining the Army agency,” which is the Army’s Criminal Investigation Division, or CID.

“I’ve never seen this many security teams for one guy,” one official told the Post, adding, “Nobody has.”  According to precedent, “Historically about 150 of the agency’s approximately 1,500 agents serve on VIP security details.” But one person said the current estimate is about “400 and going up,” while another put it somewhere “over 500.”

As Defense One notes: “Reminder: A man dressed as a police officer assassinated a Democratic lawmaker in Minnesota in mid-June. The White House did not allege ‘out of control’ crime or send any Guard troops or additional federal agents to the lawmakers’ family homes in Minneapolis in response.  But Army agents are now working long-term assignments protecting Hegseth’s second wife in Minnesota where they ‘sit on luggage’ or ‘sit in the cars on the driveway,’ officials told the Post.

Trump removed the security detail assigned to former Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Mark Milley upon taking office in January.  Administration officials said at the time Gen. Milley needed to be held accountable for perceived disloyalty.

Friday morning, the FBI raided and searched the Maryland home of former Trump national security adviser John Bolton as part of an investigation into his handling of classified records, according to reports.

Bolton had clashed with President Trump on policies toward Iran and North Korea during his 18-month tenure in Trump’s first term.

Recently, Bolton has been highly critical of some of Trump’s efforts regarding Ukraine and Vladimir Putin, including this morning, writing on X:

“Russia has not changed its goal: drag Ukraine into a new Russian Empire.  Moscow has demanded that Ukraine cede territory it already holds and the remainder of Donetsk, which it has been unable to conquer. Zelensky will never do so.  Meanwhile, meetings will continue because Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize, but I don’t see these talks making any progress.”

“NO ONE is above the law,” Director Kash Patel wrote on X around the time of the search.

Donald Trump’s retribution tour continues.

—A Manhattan federal judge on Wednesday denied the government’s request to unseal grand jury testimony from the prosecution of the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, as President Trump tried to dispel criticism and conspiracy theories from his supporters.

Judge Richard M. Berman said that the only witness presented to the grand jury had been a single FBI agent.

The information in the transcripts, Judge Berman said, “pales in comparison to the investigation information and materials in the hands of the Department of Justice.”

The chairman of the House’s main investigative committee said this week that the Justice Department would begin providing some files about the Epstein case to lawmakers on Friday.

But on Thursday, a New York appeals court threw out a half-billion-dollar judgment against President Trump, eliminating the enormous financial penalty while declining to overturn the fraud case against him.

“While harm certainly occurred, it was not the cataclysmic harm that can justify a nearly half billion-dollar award to the state,” wrote Peter Moulton, one of the appeals judges whose lengthy and convoluted ruling reflected significant disagreement among the five-judge panel.

The ruling handed Trump a financial victory and represents a major setback for New York attorney general, Letitia James.

However, the decision fell short of the legal vindication the president has been seeking in his fight against James.  In denying Trump’s bid to throw out the case, the court kept in place the ruling that he had committed fraud.  Quite a distinction for a sitting president.

—Spain was forced to deploy 500 more soldiers and European allies are rushing firefighters and equipment to bolster emergency teams struggling to battle blazes that remain out of control around the country.

The reinforcements bring the number of Spanish military personnel aiding local firefighters to about 4,000.  But the searing temperatures have complicated attempts to squelch blazes that have already burned more acres than any fires in Spain in recent years.

Temps are at least moderating across the country.  They had reached 114 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas over the weekend.

–Thankfully, Hurricane Erin threaded the needle perfectly between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.  But stay out of the water another day.  We have had at least three drowning deaths at the Jersey Shore in the past three weeks.

–And I just learned of the death of Ron Turcotte, 84, the jockey for Secretariat.

If you’re young and have never seen it…following below is the greatest single performance, frankly, in the history of sports…at least in my lifetime. [Or, you can argue, Bob Beamon’s long jump in the 1968 Mexico City Olympics.]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $3415
Oil $63.80

Bitcoin: $116,650 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]…big rally today after hitting $112,000 Thurs.

Regular Gas: $3.14; Diesel: $3.68 [$3.38 – $3.72 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 8/18-8/22

Dow Jones  +1.5%  [45631]
S&P 500  +0.3%  [6466]
S&P MidCap  +2.6%
Russell 2000  +3.3%
Nasdaq  -0.6%  [21496]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-8/22/25

Dow Jones  +7.3%
S&P 500  +10.0%
S&P MidCap  +4.3%
Russell 2000  +5.9%
Nasdaq   +11.3%

Bulls 50.9
Bears 18.9…fewest this year

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore