For the week 9/1-9/5

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,376

As I go to post, President Trump is about to issue an executive order renaming the Defense Department the Department of War, but I have to repeat…in all war-game exercises conducted by experts concerning a war in the Pacific against China, we get our butt kicked!

The United States MUST surge spending on defense!  The whole budget process the last few years hasn’t done anything but hold the line on defense spending at virtually the same levels.  It’s nuts.  Our enemies know this.

Oh well, there is a large portion of the population that believes our president’s B.S.  Thank God, in the short term, we have sports as an outlet.

—

China staged a massive military parade Wednesday to mark 80 years since Japan’s defeat in World War II, with President Xi Jinping hosting the likes of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un (and leaders from more than 20 other countries, including Iran), Putin and Kim meeting for bilateral talks on the sidelines.  Putin invited Kim to visit Russia again, following on from the North Korean leader’s last visit to the country in 2023.

Speaking in front of journalists as the talks began, Putin praised the bravery and heroism of North Korean soldiers who fought alongside Moscow’s troops to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region.

According to South Korean assessments, North Korea has sent around 15,000 troops to Russia since last year.  It has also sent large quantities of military equipment, including ballistic missiles and artillery, to help fuel Putin’s war.

In his opening remarks, Kim said that cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has “significantly strengthened” since the two countries signed a strategic partnership pact in June last year during a summit in the North Korean capital.

Although he did not specifically mention the war, Kim stressed that “if there’s anything I can do for you and the people of Russia, if there is more that needs to be done, I will consider it as a fraternal duty, an obligation that we surely need to bear, and will be prepared to do everything possible to help.”

As for the parade, every division of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was on display, alongside China’s most advanced weapons systems, missiles and aircraft, including its latest anti-ship missiles, combat drones and nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. And although it was a commemoration of the end of World War II, Xi’s message was about the choice facing the world today.

“Today, humanity once again faces the choice between peace and war, dialogue and confrontation, win-win and zero-sum. The Chinese people stand firmly on the right side of history, on the side of the progress of human civilization, and insist on the path of peaceful development,” he said.

But in embracing Putin and Kim, Xi was sending a message to the United States and the European Union that China will make its own geopolitical choices. And the display of advanced weaponry demonstrated that Beijing has the means as well as the will to assert its interests.

In his speech, Xi also vowed to speed up the building of a “world-class military” and “firmly safeguard” sovereignty and territorial integrity – a thinly veiled reference to Taiwan and warning against any move toward formal independence.

“The Chinese nation is a great nation that does not fear aggression and stands on its own feet,” he said.

Trump on Truth Social:

“The big question to be answered is whether or not President Xi of China will mention the massive amount of support and ‘blood’ that the United States of America gave to China in order to help it to secure its FREEDOM from a very unfriendly foreign invader.  Many Americans died in China’s quest for Victory and Glory.  I hope that they are rightfully Honored and Remembered for their Bravery and Sacrifice!  May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration.  Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.  PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

When asked if the parade posed a challenge to U.S. power, Trump earlier dismissed such claims.  “I have a very good relationship with President Xi, as you know,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office hours before the parade.  “But China needs us much more than we need them.”

Separately, Trump expressed confidence that Beijing would not aim its defense assets at the U.S. in the future.

“We have the strongest military in the world,” Trump said in a radio interview.  “They would never use their military on us – believe me, that would be the worst thing they could ever do.”

In the Oval Office earlier, Trump said he had recently “learned things that will be very interesting” about Putin, adding that he was “watching very closely” to see if the Russian leader would relent and schedule a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.

“We’ll see if anything comes out of it. If it doesn’t, we’ll take a different stance,” Trump said.

Yup, just wait another two weeks.  Pathetic.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“You don’t need a degree in international affairs to understand the message Xi Jinping sent Wednesday as he paraded tanks, hypersonic missiles and other weapons through Beijing, putatively to honor the end of World War II.  Mr. Xi and his allies aspire to dethrone the U.S. as the world’s premier power.  What will President Trump do about it?

“Mr. Xi’s friendly photo-op with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un was an ominous image for the free world. An axis of U.S. adversaries is alive and well, and Mr. Trump’s return to power didn’t dent their expanding cooperation.  Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers are preoccupied with peeling apart Messrs. Xi and Putin, in a spin on Richard Nixon’s opening to China in 1972. But Nixon exploited a split with the Soviets that already existed, and this week’s camaraderie is a reminder there’s no such rift now.

“Beijing’s choice to flex its military power on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II is notable.  The axis of adversaries wants to tell a new story of the world since 1945, diminishing the singular U.S. role in ending the war and building the order that followed. The revisionist history is part of a larger ambition to rearrange the global balance of power.

“Mr. Trump seems to grasp some of this.  On social media he wrote that Mr. Xi should ‘give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States.’….

“Yet what’s Mr. Trump’s strategy?  He hopes his personal diplomacy can help strike deals with different dictators on different issues.  But America’s adversaries are united, while Mr. Trump hits U.S. allies with a tariff barrage.

“The parade is also a wake-up call about the balance of military power. Mr. Xi showed off everything from undersea vehicles to new intercontinental ballistic missiles.  He’s building a military that can get what it wants when it decides to move, and don’t think his ambitions stop at swallowing the vital U.S. friend Taiwan.

“Mr. Trump keeps bragging about the great American military while doing little to make it even all that good again. He isn’t proposing a real defense buildup or a multiyear increase in spending. It’s an open question this month whether a dysfunctional Congress will get the Pentagon a full budget, rather than more stopgap funding that carves up military readiness.

“If Mr. Trump doesn’t get serious, he’s putting the U.S. in a position to lose a shooting war that this axis of adversaries seems increasingly willing to entertain. This week’s parade in Beijing is an opening for the Commander in Chief to tell Americans that putting serious money toward the U.S. military is a better option than ceding the world to Messrs. Xi, Putin and Kim.” [Ed. Emphasis mine.]

—

Wall Street and the Economy

With lawmakers back, there is little legislative time remaining to avoid a government shutdown on Sept. 30. And the worst-case scenario is growing more likely after President Trump last week signaled his plans to unilaterally claw back nearly $5 billion in foreign aid funds without Congressional approval, a move Democrats have lambasted.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune also has to deal with a backlog of Trump nominees, and last week’s firing of the Senate-confirmed head of the CDC has caused upheaval at the health agency.

House Majority Leader Mike Johnson has his own plate full, including the length of a stopgap funding bill – with Democrats holding the power to force a shutdown – as well as revelations surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein case.

Special elections are being held this month to fill the seats of two Democratic House representatives…Gerry Connolly (Va.) and Raul Grijalva (Ariz.).  Virginia’s special election is Sept. 9, and Arizona’s is Sept. 23.

About an hour after I posted last Friday, a federal appeals court struck down the Trump administration’s signature tariffs, finding that the president had gone too far in his use of emergency powers to rewrite U.S. trade policy.

The 7-4 ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a lower-court decision that undercuts a core tenet of President Trump’s economic agenda.  The majority found the president overstepped his authority under a 1977 law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.

The legal challenge was brought by a group of state governments and small businesses, who argued, in part, that no such emergency exists to justify Trump using the law.

The decision, that we’ve been awaiting for months, is a rather huge blow to a signature policy of Trump’s second term and sets the stage for the case to go to the Supreme Court.

The ruling did allow the tariffs to remain in place until Oct. 14 to allow the parties time to ask the high court to hear the case.  But some U.S. importers will probably postpone shipments until then, to avoid forking over customs duties they may not have to pay later.

Trump was not pleased, posting on Truth Social:

“ALL TARIFFS ARE STILL IN EFFECT!  Today a Highly Partisan Appeals Court* incorrectly said that our Tariffs should be removed, but they know the United States of America will win in the end. If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country.  It would make us financially weak, and we have to be strong. The U.S.A. will no longer tolerate enormous Trade Deficits and unfair Tariffs and Non Tariff Trade Barriers imposed by other Countries, friend or foe, that undermine Manufacturers, Farmers, and everyone else.  If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.  At the start of this Labor Day weekend, we should all remember that TARIFFS are the best tool to help our Workers, and support Companies that produce great MADE IN AMERICA products. For many years, Tariffs were allowed to be used against us by our uncaring and unwise Politicians.  Now, with the help of the United States Supreme Court, we will use them to the benefit of our Nation, and Make America Rich, Strong, and Powerful Again! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

*The 11 judges who heard the case were named by presidents from both parties, and the dissenting opinion was written by a judge nominated by President Obama.

The decision complicates Trump’s ambitions to upend decades of U.S. trade policy completely on his own.  His tariffs – and the erratic way he’s rolled them out – have shaken global markets, alienated our allies and trading partners and are leading to higher prices, and potentially slower economic growth.

But he’s also used the levies to pressure the European Union, UK, Japan, South Korea (sort of) and others into accepting one-sided trade deals and to bring $30bn+ in revenue into the federal Treasury to help pay for his massive tax cuts contained in the Big Beautiful Bill.

The national emergency underlying the tariffs, Trump said, was the long-running trade gap, but even countries with which the U.S. runs a surplus faced the taxes.

The Constitution gives Congress the power to impose taxes, including tariffs.  But over decades, lawmakers have ceded authorities to the president, and Trump has been taking advantage of the power vacuum.

The plaintiffs have argued that the emergency power law does not authorize the use of tariffs, and that the trade deficit hardly meets the definition of an “unusual and extraordinary” threat that would justify declaring an emergency under the law.

The U.S. has run trade deficits for 49 straight years…like as Derrick Coleman would say, “Whoopty-damn-do.”  As I’ve written ad nauseam, trade deficits don’t matter!  If you want to target ‘dumping,’ fine, levy a tariff, which all presidents have done.  Otherwise, if there is an unfair perceived imbalance (like French farmers putting up barriers to protect their livelihoods), negotiate, and admittedly, that’s where some presidents have fallen short.

The court challenge does not cover other Trump tariffs, including levies on foreign steel, aluminum and autos.  Nor does it include tariffs that Trump imposed on China in his first term – and Joe Biden kept – after a government investigation concluded that the Chinese used unfair practices to give their own technology firms an edge over rivals from the U.S. and other Western countries.

Trump’s “232” tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts, are on firmer legal ground, as the president has cited national-security concerns or unfair practices by trading partners.

The administration also can impose tariffs through the 1974 Trade Act. That law, though, restricts tariffs to 15% and 150 days, “unless such period is extended by Act of Congress.”

But now it’s on to the Supreme Court, who have already given the president extreme executive powers.  The administration has filed a request for the case to be expedited, “to the maximum extent feasible, given the enormous importance of quickly confirming the full legal standing of the president’s tariffs,” as U.S. Solicitor General John Sauer spelled out in his petition.

Editorial / Washington Post

“The Supreme Court will sooner or later decide whether President Donald Trump has the power to set tariffs for every country in the world on his own. With a legal victory far from guaranteed, why doesn’t the administration just ask the compliant, Republican-controlled Congress to endorse boundless authority for the president to impose taxes on imports?

“In April, Trump unilaterally reset tariff rates on virtually every country in the world, and the move was immediately met with legal challenges.  Late Friday, a third federal court ruled that Trump – like all other presidents – lacks the power to single-handedly dictate tariff rates.  The Supreme Court is the next and final stop in this legal saga….

“The White House claims that a half-century old law gives him expansive tariff power, but the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act previously was used for sanctions and embargoes. It doesn’t even mention the word tariffs.

“The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit explained that when Congress gives tariff powers to the executive branch, it typically says so clearly and imposes limits.  Trump bases his worldwide tariff authority on two words in IEEPA, separated by 16 other words: ‘regulate’ and ‘importation.’ Does the emergency power to regulate importation include an undiscovered presidential power to override Congress on all tariff policy?

“The Trump administration says it does, and four of 11 judges in the most recent ruling agreed. But their argument relies on giving ‘regulate’ an implausibly broad meaning.  One of the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s famous quips is that Congress does not ‘hide elephants in mouseholes.’  If Congress wanted the president to have unbounded tariff power in a self-declared emergency, it would have said so.

“The law Trump relies on says that the president’s powers ‘may not be exercised for any other purpose’ than a declared emergency.  Trump says ‘trade deficits in goods’ was enough of an emergency, even though the administration lately has been justifying the tariffs by pointing to the revenue being raised for the Treasury.

“Trump has warned that if his power is limited here, it will ‘literally destroy the United States of America.’  If the stakes are that high, he can make the case to the institution that has explicit authority over tariffs: Congress.  Tax rates can be changed on a party-line vote.  It is telling that the Republican Party’s most dominant figure in a generation is taking his chances at the high court rather than working to win over senators and congressmen who have so far shown nothing but loyalty to this president’s agenda.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump’s tariffs are one of the broadest claims of executive power in American history, taxing imports from anywhere on his personal whim.  The problem is he doesn’t have that power under the law or the Constitution….

“This is a crucial moment for the Constitution’s separation of powers.  A 7-4 majority upheld a lower-court decision striking down the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed under the (IEEPA).  In February he invoked the law to slap taxes on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, supposedly to address a fentanyl emergency.  He later declared the U.S. trade deficit an emergency to justify tariffs on the rest of the world….

“The Administration and the four dissenting judges claim the term ‘regulate’ should be interpreted broadly. But tariffs are taxes, and the majority says that ‘the power to ‘regulate’ has long been understood to be distinct from the power to ‘tax.’’….

“More ominously for Mr. Trump, his tariffs run afoul of the Supreme Court’s major questions doctrine, which says that Presidents need clear authority from Congress for significant economic and political actions….

“Mr. Trump’s lawyers try to dodge the major questions barrier by saying this is trumped on foreign policy by the President’s Article II powers. While judges typically defer to Presidents on foreign matters, as the majority says, ‘the power of the purse (including the power to tax) belongs to Congress.’  Same for trade, as the Constitution makes clear.

“If Mr. Trump gets away with his IEEPA tariffs, what’s to stop the next President from using the law to put tariffs on countries with high CO2 emissions?  It isn’t hard to imagine a Democrat in the White House declaring a global climate ‘emergency’ and arguing that because this counts as ‘foreign policy,’ judges should give a pass.

“Mr. Trump denounced the decision and blamed partisan judges, but judges nominated by Presidents of both parties were on opposite sides of the ruling….

“Mr. Trump is bloody-minded on tariffs, and he’ll use whatever other statutes he can.  He recently expanded his use of Section 232 national-security power to impose tariffs on ‘derivative’ steel and aluminum products, including bulldozers, furniture, railcars, appliances, air-conditioning parts, butter knives, spray deodorants and strollers.  Who knew that baby buggies were a threat to the homeland?

“Congress has ceded too much power over trade to the President, but that doesn’t mean he can get away with anything.  If he can impose a tax on any imported product any time he wants, he really has the power of a king. The lower courts are doing their duty, and soon it will be up to the Supreme Court.”

Meanwhile, Trump has promised to impose hefty import taxes on pharmaceuticals, a category of products he’s largely spared in his trade war. For decades, in fact, imported medicine has mostly been allowed to enter the United States duty free.

That’s starting to change.  U.S. and European leaders recently detailed a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff rate on some European goods brought into the United States, including pharmaceuticals.  Trump is threatening duties of 200% more on drugs made elsewhere.

The president has promised Americans he’ll lower their drug costs.  But imposing stiff pharmaceutical tariffs risks the opposite and could disrupt complex supply chains, drive cheap foreign-made generic drugs out of the U.S. market and create shortages.

Separately, the U.S. and Japan finalized their trade deal that levies a 15% baseline tariff on most Japanese products, including autos.  In return, Japan is creating more access for U.S. companies to sell agricultural goods and autos, among other things, and invest $550 billion in projects selected by Donald Trump.  But the Japanese are not buying our cars in any great numbers, just my prediction.  #ILoveMyHondaCivic

Prime Minister Ishiba is in trouble and likely won’t survive next week, according to reports, though internally it’s about far more than this deal.

Another story that broke Friday was the arrest of 475 individuals as part of an immigration raid at a Hyundai Motor battery plant under construction in Georgia as part of a criminal investigation into employment practices at the site, a Homeland Security official said.  More than 300 were South Korean nationals.

This threatens to roil U.S.-South Korean relations, and Seoul protested the action to the U.S. and said it was trying to secure the release of its citizens.

Homeland Security says those arrested had illegally crossed the border, entered through a visa waiver program that prohibited them from working or had overstayed their visas.

This may, or may not be, a much bigger story in the days to come.

—

Regarding the Federal Reserve, I have to go back to an interview Vice President JD Vance gave to USA Today last week that I became aware of after I posted last WIR.  It had to do with Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook.

“The question is: Do we want a person who makes a mistake like that to be a person who sits on the Federal Reserve Board, which makes important monetary policy for the entire country?” Vance said, failing to note that the “mistake” in question was still an unproven mortgage fraud allegation that hasn’t led to formal charges. But Vance went further.

“Isn’t it a little preposterous to say that the president of the United States – the elected president of the United States, working of course in concert with Congress – doesn’t have the ability to make these determinations? I don’t think that we allow bureaucrats to sit from on high and make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people.”

He added that he believes Trump is “much better” equipped “to make these determinations” about U.S. monetary policy, despite the president’s lengthy record of confusion about the basics of economic and monetary policy.

Republican Sen. James Lankford (OK) begged to differ with Vance, telling NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the central bank should set interest rates while the president and Congress had different roles to play.

“All of us have a role in it.  We just have a different role. Federal Reserve is at its best when it’s independent, but they’re not independent of the entire American people,” Lankford said.  “Let’s each do our jobs on that.”

Meanwhile, Lisa Cook’s lawyer blasted President Trump’s move to oust her as being based on nothing more than “cut-and-paste” allegations of mortgage fraud made in social media posts.

In a flurry of court filings Tuesday, Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, doubled down on arguments he presented at a hearing last week, saying Trump lacked valid grounds to fire Cook “for cause,” a key issue in the lawsuit challenging her dismissal.  Cook “did not ever commit mortgage fraud,” Lowell said.

He also said that social media posts by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte and a criminal referral to the Justice Department, didn’t give Cook an opportunity to respond before she was fired.  Pulte’s referral letter hedged in its allegations against Cook, which remain unproven, Lowell said.

The Fed hasn’t taken a position on the fight in court, only saying that it will respect any court rulings.

As for Fed monetary policy, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, a voting member on the FOMC, said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy is in the right place given current economic data, in remarks that did not give a clear signal whether he supports an interest rate cut later this month.

“The current modestly restrictive setting of the policy rate is consistent with today’s full-employment labor market and core inflation nearly one percentage point above the Fed’s 25 target,” Musalem said in the text of a speech to be delivered to an event at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Looking ahead, Musalem indicated he needs more data to decide where he believes monetary policy should go.

“I will continue to update my outlook and my assessment of the balance of risks to seek a forward-looking path of interest rates that best positions monetary policy for achieving and maintaining maximum employment and price stability for all Americans,” he said.

As for the inflation outlook, Musalem said tariffs are likely to represent a passing squall for the economy, with the impact of the rise in import taxes working through the economy over the next two to three quarters.

“The impact on inflation will fade after that,” he said, adding that “below-trend real GDP growth and stable longer-term inflation expectations should limit the persistence of inflation.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller continues to pound the table for lower rates, most recently in an interview with CNBC this week.

A change in tone at the Fed could be amplified by Stephan Miran, President Trump’s pick to join the central bank’s governing board.  Miran had his hearing Thursday in the Senate Banking Committee, and it’s assumed he will be confirmed in time for the Sept. 16-17 Fed meeting.

But Miran told senators that he intends to hang on to his White House job while serving at the Fed, rather than resign altogether, taking an unpaid leave of absence from the White House Council of Economic Advisers.  “Your independence has already been seriously compromised by your statement – you are going to be technically an employee of the president of the United States but an independent member of the board of the Federal Reserve?” Democratic Senator Jack Reed.  “That’s ridiculous.”

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren also excoriated Miran when he refused to give a direct answer to her question of whether he thought Trump lost the 2020 election.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – which compiles anecdotal reports from its 12 regional banks – showed “little or no change” in activity across the majority of districts and warned of wages failing to keep up with price rises.  Consumer sentiment is down, even if spending is holding up for now.   Hiring data suggested a slowing labor market ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report for August.

Speaking of which, even under a new Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) chief after President Trump fired the previous head over July’s awful jobs report, the August numbers weren’t any better, just 22,000 jobs added vs. consensus of about 75,000.

July was revised up from 73,000 to 79,000, but June was revised downward from 14,000 to -13,000, the first outright decline since December 2020.

And the unemployment rate, 4.3%, while still strong historically, is nonetheless the highest since 2021.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, 3.7% year-over-year.

Manufacturing, despite Trump’s claim of a booming economy and factory growth with all the money being poured into AI-related data centers, has lost 78,000 jobs this year.

Treasury yields collapsed on the news, as the market immediately priced in 100% certainty for a rate cut at the next Open Market Committee meeting in less than two weeks.  [It will be 25 basis points, not 50 as some traders are betting on.]

And the market is now pricing in cuts in October and December.

One more…the non-farm payroll figures have now been below 100,000 four consecutive months for the first time since 2010!

President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago.  As usual, he’s ‘Too Late!’”

But next week we have August figures for consumer and producer prices, and they will be closer to 3% than the Fed’s targeted 2%, and, again, that’s the conundrum, which certainly should prevent the Fed from going 50bps on Sept. 17.

In other economic news on the week, we had August ISM readings on manufacturing and the service sector, the former 48.7, in line, and the latter 52.0, better than expected (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).

July construction spending was down 0.1%, and factory orders down 1.3%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is at 3.0%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 6.50%, continuing its general decline from 7.04% on Jan. 16. With the late-week move in Treasuries, this should be 6.40% next week, and then lower the following one.

Europe and Asia

We had the August PMIs for the eurozone, as issued by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank.  For the EA20, the composite reading was 51.0, a 12-month high.  Manufacturing was 50.7, a 38-month high.  Services 50.5.

Germany: manufacturing 49.9 (38-mo. high); services 49.3
France: mfg. 50.4 (31-mo. high); services 49.8
Italy: mfg. 50.4; services 51.5
Spain: mfg. 54.3; services 53.2
Ireland: mfg. 51.6; services 50.6
Netherlands: mfg. 51.9
Greece: mfg. 54.5

UK: mfg. 47.0; services 54.2

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“Riding a bike too slowly can make you tip over. That’s the risk facing the eurozone.  Yes, the economy has been growing since the start of the year, but the pace is painfully slow.  In August, the HCOB Composite PMI Business Activity index stood at 51.0 – barely above stall speed.  Political tensions in France and Spain, uncertainty around the EU-US trade deal, and ongoing troubles in the key automotive sector aren’t helping.  On the bright side, increased defense spending across Europe and Germany’s infrastructure program offer hope that the economy might keep moving forward – and avoid falling off the bike.

“Right now, the services sector feels more like stagflation than recovery.  The rate of expansion has slipped even further from an already slow pace, while cost pressures have increased and selling price inflation nudged slightly higher.  In fact, the performance of services has deteriorated across all four major eurozone economies: growth has slowed in Spain and Italy, and Germany and France are showing mild contractions.  That said, we wouldn’t call it a downward trend just yet – there are signs of stabilization in both euro area new orders and backlogs. Still, the overall situation remains fragile.”

Eurostat released a slew of data….

A flash estimate for August inflation in the eurozone was 2.1%, up from 2.0% in July.  Ex-food and energy, the figure was 2.3%

Headline inflation….

Germany 2.1%, France 0.8%, Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.7%, Netherlands 2.4%, Ireland 1.8%.

Industrial producer prices for July rose 0.4% in the euro area, compared with June.  Versus a year ago, producer prices increased 0.2%.

EA20 retail trade for July fell 0.5% over June, up 2.2% from a year ago.

Euro area unemployment for July came in at 6.2%, down a tick from June.

Germany 3.7%, France 7.6%, Italy 6.0%, Spain 10.4%, Netherlands 3.8%.

Germany: The influential Ifo Institute reduced its forecast for the German economy to expand by just 0.2% growth this year and 1.3% in 2026, down from the 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively, under previous forecasts.  U.S. tariffs are still having a noticeable impact on the economy, though Ifo feels the effects will gradually recede.

Turning to Asia…China’s PMIs for August were released, with the official government (National Bureau of Statistics) data showing manufacturing at 49.4, services 50.3.

But the RatingDog (formerly Caixin) private readings of small/medium sized businesses were better…manufacturing 50.5 vs. 49.5 prior, services 53.0 vs. 52.6 in July.

Japan’s August manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7, services 53.1.

July household spending was up 1.7% over June, but up just 1.4% from a year ago.

South Korea’s August manufacturing PMI was 48.3; Taiwan’s 47.4.

Street Bytes

—The S&P 500 hit a new record on Thursday, 6502, but stagflation fears hit the market today and it ended up being a mixed week, with the Dow Jones falling 0.3% to 45400, the S&P gaining 0.3%, while Nasdaq rose 1.1%.

September is historically the worst month of the year in terms of market returns, and this year promised to be rather tumultuous with legal drama around Trump’s tariffs and concerns over Federal Reserve independence in high focus.

Many, including yours truly, have also written of excessive valuations in the market, and entering this week, the S&P 500 trades at 22.5 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with the average of 16.8 times since 2000.

The top 10 S&P 500 companies mostly tech, also account for a record 39.5% of the index’s value, raising concerns about market concentration.

But if every company in the S&P 500 were weighted equally, rather than by market value, the index would be trading at 1.76 times sales, compared with its long-term average of 1.43.   [Jack Pitcher / Wall Street Journal]

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.87%  2-yr. 3.51%  10-yr. 4.09%  30-yr. 4.77%

Treasuries were rallying ahead of today’s jobs report, and then the putrid #s added to the bullish tone, Fed rate cuts now a certainty.

A minute before the employment data, the 2-year was at 3.56% and the 10-yr. 4.13%.

A few hours later, the 2-yr. was down to 3.46% and the 10-yr. 4.07%.  But the yields rose a bit into the close.

On the week, the 2-yr. rallied 10 basis points, the 10-yr., 13.

Global bond market yields have been rising on the long end, as investors are increasingly sensitive about rising debt levels and as the outlook for U.S. tariffs becomes even less clear.

Yields on 30-year UK debt closed at 5.69% on Tuesday, the highest since 2006.  30-year German and Dutch yields have hit levels not seen since 2011.  The French 30-year hit levels not seen since 2009.

But the yields fell back hard today on the crappy U.S. jobs news.

—Gold surged to an all-time high on Monday, nearly $3,600, lifted by investor expectations of a rate cut from the Fed and continued strong demand from foreign central banks, whose holdings of the precious metal have topped treasuries for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data.

A central bank survey by the World Gold Council showed that an overwhelming majority of respondents believe global central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months.

—Key members of OPEC+ are set to meet Sunday to discuss production policy as the market braces for a global supply glut that is expected to put pressure on prices.  However, excess supply has yet to show in inventory data or in the crude futures structure.

OPEC and its allies agreed to fully unwind 2.2 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts a year ahead of its original plan, and is now widely expected to hold policy steady as it evaluates its next steps amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

The International Energy Agency – whose members include the world’s biggest oil consumers – has warned markets are on track for a record surplus.  However, excess supplies typically manifest with high levels of crude inventories and a shift from backwardation to contango – when future-dated oil is more expensive than spot oil (that which I quote weekly), since storage becomes attractive.

China has been building up its inventories and you’ve had the usual strong summer demand so that has supported prices thus far.

But oil was cratering at week’s end amid ample supply and uncertain demand, helped in no small part by the lousy U.S. jobs numbers.

—ConocoPhillips said it will slash up to a quarter of its workforce, the company told Barron’s on Wednesday.

“We are always looking at how we can be more efficient with the resources we have,” a ConocoPhillips spokesperson said.  “As part of this process, we have informed employees that a 20% to 25% reduction in our global workforce, which includes employees and contractors, is anticipated.”

The company employed around 11,800 workers as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Oil and gas producers have been looking for – and finding – ways to pump out more oil at lower costs for years, and that quest is continuing.

–A federal judge on Tuesday barred Alphabet’s Google from paying to be the exclusive search engine on devices and browsers and ordered the company to share its trove of data with rivals in a bid to improve competition.

U.S. District Judge Amit P. Mehta, however, didn’t completely bar Google from making payments for distribution of its products, saying such a move would harm downstream partners. [A key win for Apple, which has received roughly $20 billion a year for making Google search the default on iPhones.] Mehta also declined to require more drastic remedies sought by the Justice Department, such as divestiture of Google’s Chrome browser, and with this last bit, Alphabet shares surged 8%.

Judge Mehta’s order follows his decision last year that Google illegally monopolized the search market for more than a decade. That opinion said Google used illegal distribution agreements with companies such as Apple to build and maintain a 90% market share and prevent rivals from building competitive alternatives.

Financial or other effects from Mehta’s decision are unlikely to show up immediately.  Google is pushing for a stay of the judge’s ruling while it appeals to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

The ruling caps a five-year battle in Mehta’s court that began when the Justice Department sued Google in the waning months of the first Trump administration, the government’s first major lawsuit challenging an alleged monopoly in a generation.

It also represents a blow to the government, falling far short of the most severe remedies sought by antitrust enforcers after the court found Google illegally monopolized the search market.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Recall that DOJ sued Google in 2020, a technological lifetime ago, and before large-language AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT launched.  Justice argued that Google entrenched its search dominance by paying for default placement with Apple and others, and then leveraging its trove of user queries and data to improve its search engine.

“But Judge Mehta found that, while Google was a monopoly, it had achieved it mainly through innovation and investment, not anti-competitive behavior.  He also found that the monopoly was beneficial to consumers.  If consumers weren’t harmed, what’s the antitrust problem?….

“Which brings us to AI.  ‘Given the ongoing GenAI arms race, Google will have to continue to invest billions and innovate in this highly competitive space just to keep up,’ Judge Mehta wrote.  His implicit message is that crippling Google will make the AI market less competitive.

“As so often happens with antitrust, new technology has made DOJ’s Google suit obsolete.  Google faces stiff competition in search and web browsing from a multitude of well-capitalized AI startups.  Meanwhile, DOJ has backed the arguments in Elon Musk’s lawsuit accusing OpenAI and Microsoft of seeking to monopolize the AI market. Will the real monopolist please stand up?

“Another irony is that DOJ’s proposals to hamstring Google mirror the European digital regulations that President Trump is objecting to. Last week he threatened tariffs on ‘all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations.’  Mr. Trump complains about foreign governments trying to shackle U.S. tech companies, yet his Administration wants to use antitrust policy to do the same.”

—In a very early forecast of the holiday shopping season, a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey showed that shoppers were planning on spending about $1,552 per person, down 5.3% from last year. The last comparable decline was in 2020, when the average spend fell 7.6% to $1,187.

About 84% of consumers expect to curb spending over the next six months, especially on apparel, big-ticket items and dining out.  More than half the 4,000 U.S. consumers surveyed said price increases are likely to affect their holiday decisions.

Gen Zers in particular said they would pull back.

—Salesforce, a cloud-software stalwart, saw its shares crater 6% after the company reported solid second-quarter earnings results Wednesday afternoon, but a weaker-than-expected outlook was weighing on the stock.

Adjusted earnings-per-share rose to $2.91 versus Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $2.78, and up from $2.56 last year.  Revenue for the quarter reached $10.24 billion, ahead of expectations for $10.14 billion, and up 10% over last year.

But the outlook for the third quarter disappointed, especially on sales and backlog growth.

–Late last week Spirit Airlines, as expected, filed bankruptcy for the second time in a year after an earlier reorganization failed to put it on stable financial ground.

The discount airline said it needs to slash costs and make sweeping changes to its business as it grapples with flagging travel demand and challenges to the no-frills business model it once pioneered.

The airline will continue flying and selling tickets through the bankruptcy process.

Spirit is looking to shed some planes and retrench to core cities such as Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Detroit.

The bankruptcy could provide another opening for a merger with Frontier, which has pursued a deal with Spirit several times.

Frontier has been announcing a slew of new routes aimed at picking up Spirit customers.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

9/4…117 percent of 2024 levels
9/3…86
9/2…83
9/1…128…Labor Day…2,835,000 passengers.
8/31…108
8/30…76
8/29…108…Friday before Labor Day…2,971,000 passengers.  Expectation was 3m+.
8/28…128

–The Trump administration announced that U.S. Space Command will be located in Huntsville, Alabama, reversing a Biden-era decision to keep it at its temporary headquarters in Colorado. A long time ago, when I was a regional sales rep at Thomson McKinnon Securities, Huntsville was part of my territory. Beautiful spot…and even back then it was known for space initiatives.  So I understand why it was selected, aside from voting for Donald Trump.  Great for the local economy.

And not so great for Colorado Springs, which had been the temporary headquarters, President Biden having hoped to make it a permanent HQ.

—BYD Co. reported a staggering 30% plunge in quarterly profit Friday, its first decline in over three years, as it’s become clear that not even dominant players are safe in the cutthroat battle for market share. The carmaker’s stock dropped as much as 8% in Hong Kong on Monday, before paring losses.

Despite robust overseas sales, BYD’s net income of 6.36 billion yuan ($892 million) for the three months through June 30 fell short of analysts’ estimates for a modest increase.  Heavy discounting saw BYD’s gross margin contract to 18% from 18.8% in the first half of 2024, although that figure is still among the top in the industry, exceeding rivals such as Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. and Chery Automobile Co.

The Shenzhen-based giant blamed “industry malpractices” and “excessive marketing” for pressuring its bottom line – which is rather rich considering BYD has been a major driver of the price war, leading multiple rounds of cuts since 2023, including this past May.  The government has warned of “rat-race competition,” saying that price wars can affect supply-chain security and seriously damage the international reputation of “Made-in-China.”

BYD is on track to hit 1 million units in overseas volumes, according to some analysts.  With annual sales, including both domestic and international, forecast to come in around 5 million vehicles for 2025.

Tesla has also been caught up in the price war, cutting one variant of its Model 3 car in China to 259,500 yuan, down from 269,500 previously, its website showed on Monday.

–Separately, Tesla’s board is asking investors to approve a new pay package for Elon Musk that could be worth as much as $1 trillion over the next decade.

To attain the maximum, Tesla would need to reach an $8.5 trillion market capitalization.  It currently sits at around $1 trillion.

–Back to electric vehicles, ‘new-vehicle’ sales in the U.S. (including plug-in hybrids), rose 3.7% in August from a year earlier, helped by consumers’ rush to lock in expiring EV tax credits and steady prices in the face of tariffs.

Overall sales industrywide also jumped 3.7% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate for August of 16.4 million vehicles, according to Motor Intelligence.

The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expires Sept. 20.  Electric models comprised more than 11% of the U.S. new vehicle market for the month compared with their usual 8% share, according to J.D. Power.

But once the tax credit expires, sales of EVs will wane.

—Macy’s raised its annual sales and profit forecasts on Wednesday, helped by resilient demand across banners including Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury chains as the retailer’s turnaround plan takes shape.  Shares of the company soared 19%.

Shedding some underperforming banners as part of its turnaround strategy and leaning into its pricier labels, which serve higher-income shoppers, helped Macy’s offset any hit from pressure on consumer spending amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

CEO Tony Springs had proposed a turnaround plan in February last year that included closing 150 Macy’s stores by 2026, reinvesting in high-potential locations, reducing operational costs and improving the company’s product offerings and loyalty programs.

Macy’s, however, faces import tariff risks from its reliance on manufacturing in China.  In May, the company said it would increase prices selectively to soften the tariff impact on margins.

Macy’s expects annual adjusted profit per share between $1.70 and $2.05, compared with its prior target of $1.60 to $2.00.

Annual net sales are now expected between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion, slightly above its prior estimates.

For the second quarter ended August 2, the company reported its thirteenth consecutive net sales decline, a 2.5% fall to $4.81 billion, but this was better than the Street had forecast.

It also reported comparable sales growth of 1.9%, following 12 quarters of declines.

—Dollar Tree raised its annual sales and profit forecasts on Wednesday as more Americans across income categories shop for cheaper groceries, apparel and home décor items at its stores.

Dollar Tree’s lower price points – about 85% of items at its stores are priced under $2 – and smaller pack sizes helped the company attract value-seeking middle- and higher-income consumers, apart from its core lower-income consumer.

Dollar Tree now expects 2025 net sales in the range of $19.3 billion to $19.5 billion, compared with its prior forecast of between $18.5 billion and $19.1 billion, which is based on comparable store net sales growth in the range of 4% to 6%.

The company, having completed its sale of the less-profitable Family Dollar banner earlier in the year, has opened 106 DLTR stores.

It expects adjusted annual earnings per share between $5.32 and $5.72, compared with its earlier target of $5.15 to $5.65 per share.

But the company offered tepid guidance for the current quarter, and the shares, having nearly doubled this year, cratered 8%.  Tariffs are an issue.

“The timing of the impacts of tariffs and our mitigation activities played out differently than we originally anticipated,” CEO Mike Creedon said on a call with analysts.  While this dynamic resulted in higher-than-expected adjusted earnings in the recent quarter, it will cause third-quarter adjusted earnings to be roughly flat from a year ago.

Still, Dollar Tree said it expects to mitigate most of the costs stemming from tariffs this year by negotiating with suppliers, shifting manufacturing and dropping non-economical items. The company has raised prices “as a last resort,” but I have told you, including through my nightly videos, that lots of prices are going up at DLTR.

—Campbell’s said it expects its fiscal 2026 earnings to decline 18% to 21%, largely because 50% steel tariffs have raised its soup can costs.  Campbell’s said about two-thirds of its projected 9% to 13% drop in full-year adjusted EPS is attributable to tariffs.

–After more than a decade together at Kraft Heinz, ketchup is breaking up with hot dogs.

The food giant said it plans to split its business into two companies, unwinding an industry megamerger that married two packaged-food behemoths.

In the breakup, one global company would focus on sauces, spreads and seasonings, while another would sell grocery staples in North America.  The move aims to create businesses with more focus and less complexity, Kraft Heinz said, and deepens a reversal of the food industry’s yearslong strategy of pursing deals to build scale.

“Scale by itself is not the answer, but having scale along with focus creates opportunities,” said Kraft Heinz CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera in an interview.

Abrams-Rivera will head the $10 billion North American grocery business, which will include brands such as Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles and Lunchables.  The other business, one with roughly $15 billion in annual sales, will focus globally on “taste elevation” with brands including Heinz ketchup, Philadelphia cream cheese and Kraft Mac & Cheese, the company said.

—Constellation Brands’ stock fell 7% on Tuesday after the Modelo and Corona owner cut its fiscal year outlook and said in a statement that high-end beer sales to Hispanic consumers “were more pronounced than general market declines.”

This is now the second warning from the company suggesting that President Trump’s immigration crackdown is having an impact on demand.  Constellation Brands’ core Hispanic consumer base makes up about half of its business, CEO Bill Newlands said on a call with investors in July.

Modelo Especial has been the bestselling beer in the U.S. since it overtook Bud Light for the top spot in 2023.

The company now expects fiscal year 2026 net beer sales to decline 2% to 4%, below its previous forecast of flat to 3% sales growth, due to “incremental macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer demand.”

For the full year, earnings are expected to be in the range of $11.30 to $11.60, down from the previous range of $12.60 to $12.90.

–Swiss food giant Nestle abruptly fired its relatively new CEO Laurent Freixe, just a year into his role, for a secret romance with a subordinate, the company said Monday.  The change comes at a challenging time for the KitKat and Toblerone maker, which is suffering lower-than-expected growth and is selling some non-core businesses.

–Shares of Lululemon Athletica plunged 19% on Friday at the opening after the athletic wear maker slashed annual profit and sales forecasts, hurt by tepid U.S. demand and tariff costs.

Comparable sales for its American segment, its largest, declined 1% while international sales rose 15%.

The company expects annual profit per share between $12.77 and $12.97, down from $14.58 to $14.78 forecast earlier.  That’s a whopping reduction as these things go.

The yogawear maker relies heavily on U.S. import tariff hotspots like Vietnam and mainland China for its raw materials and manufacturing.

—Retail coffee prices jumped 14.5% in July from the previous year, to a high of $8.41 a pound, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s before 50% tariffs on products from Brazil, the source of 33% of U.S. coffee beans, kicked in.

–And we note the passing of “the king of fashion” and business titan Giorgio Armani at the age of 91.  Armani brought subtle Italian luxury to the world stage and conquered Hollywood.

Unlike rivals who ceded control to conglomerates such as LVMH or Kering, Armani kept his company private, answering only to himself.  He remained effectively the sole shareholder of a group that generated about $2.7 billion in sales last year, and built safeguards to ensure the house would resist an outside takeover.

So now, can the Armani brand move on without its founder while preserving his legacy? That’s not clear.  He has no children or spouse and he had selected three nominees from the “foundation” to oversee the business when he was gone.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: European leaders are increasingly concerned that Russia will mount a new offensive on Ukraine as they sit down with President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss security guarantees for his country this week.

At their security council meeting in Toulon, German and French officials discussed the Russian troops massing outside Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian-held stronghold in the eastern Donetsk region, as reported by Bloomberg.

Zelensky said last weekend that Russia had relocated 100,000 soldiers to the frontline outside that city, which the Kremlin’s forces have tried to encircle and seize without success for more than a year.

Capturing Pokrovsk would open the way to a Russian assault on the much larger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as Moscow seeks control over the entire Donetsk region.

[Sunday, Ukraine’s armed forces said that despite Moscow’s claims of a successful summer offensive, Russian forces failed to gain full control of any major Ukrainian city and “grossly exaggerated” figures regarding captured territories.]

The French want the gathering to convey a message that Europe has done its part to support Ukraine and it’s up to the U.S. president to deliver on his threat to increase pressure on the Kremlin.  President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday, standing alongside Zelensky in Paris, that Europe is ready to provide security guarantees to Kyiv.

Putin, speaking from China, said Russia is willing to fight to achieve all its objectives if Ukraine does not agree to a deal.  But this would be Putin’s deal, not Ukraine’s, or any kind of compromise.

Addressing the issue of talks with President Zelensky, Putin said on Wednesday, “I have never ruled out the possibility of such a meeting. But is there any point?  Let’s see.”

Zelensky has been highlighting Putin’s refusal to meet as a way of urging President Trump to impose sanctions on Russia and boost Ukraine’s defenses.

Later Wednesday, Trump said the Russian leader “knows where I stand” regarding an end to the war.

“I have no message to President Putin, he knows where I stand, and he’ll make a decision one way or the other,” Trump told reporters at the White House, where he was hosting recently-elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki.

He bristled at a reporter who suggested he had not taken significant action against Moscow, citing secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil.

“You call that no action?  And I haven’t done phase two and phase three yet,” added Trump, without elaborating.

Back in Beijing, a Russian state TV journalist asked Putin whether the war in Ukraine could end soon, and Putin replied, “There is a certain light at the end of the tunnel.”

“It seems to me that if common sense prevails, it will be possible to agree on an acceptable solution to end this conflict,” Putin said. “If not, then we will have to resolve all our tasks militarily.”

Back to Trump, he seems surprised that Putin won’t agree to his entreaties.

“We’ve had a good relationship over the years, very good, actually.  That’s why I really thought we would have this done,” Trump said in an interview with the Daily Caller.

By week’s end, President Macron said 26 countries were ready to contribute to a peacekeeping mission if the fighting between Ukraine and Russia stops, part of an effort to increase pressure on Putin to negotiate with his Ukrainian counterpart.

Putin then said today that any foreign troops deployed to Ukraine before a peace agreement has been signed would be considered “legitimate targets” by Moscow’s forces.

“If any troops appear there, especially now while fighting is ongoing, we assume that they will be legitimate targets,” he said during a panel at the Eastern Economic Forum in the far eastern Russian city of Vladivostok.

The Trump administration is certainly helping Putin’s cause.  As reported by the Washington Post, it will cut some security funds for European countries bordering Russia.  “The decision, affecting hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military aid, has alarmed NATO allies and upset U.S. lawmakers who strongly back the alliance,” the Post stated.

–Meanwhile, more than 500 Russian drones and 24 cruise missiles were launched on Wednesday night alone, with Ukraine saying 17 locations were hit, but I did not see a report on casualties.

Last Saturday, Russian attacked with more than 500 drones and 45 missiles, impacting 14 regions.  At least one was killed, 24 injured.

For its part, Ukraine continues to hit oil refineries in Russia.

–On a related matter, a plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union’s executive arm, suffered from jamming of GPS navigation while flying over Bulgaria and Bulgarian authorities believe that Russia was behind the operation, her organization said on Monday.

—President Putin said Tuesday the Trump administration is listening to the Kremlin’s justifications for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and claimed Moscow and Washington have come to a “mutual understanding” about the conflict.

“I hope, moving in this direction, (is) opening the way to peace in Ukraine,” Putin said.

At the same time, the Russian leader reiterated his view that “this crisis wasn’t triggered by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, but was a result of a coup in Ukraine, which was supported and provoked by the West.”

Putin claimed Tuesday that Moscow has never been against Ukraine joining the European Union but reiterated that the country’s potential ascension into NATO is “unacceptable.”

Israel/Gaza: Abu Obeida, the spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, has been killed in an air strike in Gaza City, Israel said.

Defense Minister Israel Katz congratulated the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel’s security agency, Shin Bet, for the “flawless execution” in a post on X.

Katz gave no detail on the time or location of the operation, but the IDF earlier said its aircraft attacked “a key terrorist” in the al-Rimal neighborhood on Saturday, prompting reports in Israeli media that Obeida had been the target.

Hamas finally confirmed his death today.

Katz warned that many more of Obeida’s “criminal partners” would be targeted with “the intensification of the campaign in Gaza” – a reference to a recently approved Israeli plan to seize control of Gaza City.

Obeida was the man always masked in a Palestinian scarf who became an idol to Hamas supporters throughout the Middle East.

But as the Israeli military prepares for a new offensive on Gaza City, military commanders are struggling to find enough reservists willing to report for duty.

Israeli troops are exhausted after nearly two years of fighting on several fronts, and more are questioning the purpose of the war. As the military is now calling up some 60,000 reservists from their jobs, studies and families to support the new mission, many are saying they are at a breaking point, according to more than 30 officers and soldiers who were interviewed by the Wall Street Journal.

Many polls show as much as 80% of the Israeli public wants Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike a deal that will end the war and bring the hostages home.  Thousands of Israeli military veterans and reservists have signed petitions urging the same.

Separately, according to the Washington Post, President Trump and others still want to depopulate and redevelop Gaza, the Post having seen a 38-page prospectus for a “Riviera of the Middle East” to be built on the rubble.  The plan envisions paying Palestinians to leave with a share in the new venture, a move the prospectus says would save $23,000 per person.

And Israeli strikes killed the Yemeni prime minister and 11 other leaders. The Saturday strike on the capital of Sanaa, the first such attack to kill senior officials, killed the prime minister of the Houthi-run government and several other ministers.  On Monday, thousands attended a funeral in the capital’s largest mosque.  Mohammed Miftah, now de facto head of the Iran-aligned Houthi government, vowed revenge.

China: Back to the parade, Kim Jong Un arrived in Beijing along with his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, having crossed into China onboard his armored train, which is said to include a restaurant serving fine French wines and dishes like fresh lobster.  The train’s heavy protection means it travels slowly. [North Korea doesn’t have a reliable commercial aircraft for Kim.]

As for Miss Kim, she is said to be the heir apparent and has appeared in public frequently alongside her father since she made her debut in November 2022.

But details on her are limited.  There are conflicting reports regarding her age. In 2023, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it believed she was around 10 years old, so making her 12 today.  She looks about 12.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, President Xi and Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of a regional summit.  Experts say their display of friendship was aimed at projecting an alternative to U.S. global leadership, even as serious differences among them remain.

Xi told Modi that border issues should not define their relationship, adding that the “right choice” is to be friends.  “As long as the two countries remain partners rather than rivals, and see each other as development opportunities rather than threats, China-India relations will flourish and move forward steadily.”

Putin said Tuesday that relations between Russia and China had “reached their highest level in history.”

Xi told Putin at the beginning of their meeting on Tuesday morning: “Chinese-Russian relations have stood the test of international circumstances and serve as a model of interstate relations, eternal good-neighborliness, friendship, comprehensive strategic interaction, mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win.”

“China is willing to maintain close high-level interactions with Russia,” Xi said, adding that China would coordinate positions “in a timely manner” on issues concerning each other’s core interests and major concerns.

Meanwhile, President Trump stood by the steep tariffs he imposed on India as a penalty for buying Russian oil, a strain on New Delhi’s relations with Washington, but, interestingly, Prime Minister Modi skipped the military parade, seemingly an attempt to send a signal to Washington that India wants relations with both the U.S. and China.

But Friday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China.  May they have a long and prosperous future together! President Donald J. Trump”

Lastly, during the parade, as Putin and Xi walked alongside Kim, we had a ‘hot-mic’ moment.  The two were pondering immortality and the possibility of humans living 150 years.

“Biotechnology is continuously developing,” Putin’s translator could be heard saying on a livestream broadcast on Chinese state media.  “Human organs can be continuously transplanted. The longer you live, the younger you become, and [you can] even achieve immortality.”

“Some predict that in this century humans may live to 150 years old,” Xi’s translator responded, adding at another point: “Earlier, people rarely lived to 70, but these days at 70 years you are still a child.”

Both Putin and Xi are 72.

Iran: A confidential report by the UN’s nuclear watchdog circulated to member states and seen by the Associated Press said Wednesday that Iran increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels before Israel launched its military attack on June 13.

The report by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of June 13, Iran had 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 32.3 kilograms (71.2 pounds) since the IAEA’s last report in May.

The report stated that this figure is “based on the information provided by Iran, agency verification activities between May 17, 2025, and June 12, 2025 (the day preceding the start of the military attacks), and estimates based on the past operation of the relevant facilities.”

That material is a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The confidential report also said Iran and the IAEA have not reached an agreement on resuming inspections of sites affected by Israeli and U.S. bombing.

The report stated that while the withdrawal of UN inspectors from Iran during the war “was necessary given the overall security situation, Tehran’s subsequent decision to cut cooperation with the IAEA was ‘deeply regrettable.’”

As of June 13, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile was 9874.9 kilograms, which represents an increase of 627.3 kilograms since the last report in May, the report said.

Of course the question is, where is it all?

Editorial / Washington Post

“Since the June strikes against the facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, the regime has mostly suspended cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.  Tehran has also refused to account for the now missing stockpile of highly enriched, near-weapons-grade uranium that it possessed before the attacks.  Last Wednesday, inspectors visited the Bushehr reactor, which remains live, but they have not been allowed to see what’s left of the facilities struck by B-2 bombers as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.

“The most hopeful explanation is that Iran is blocking the inspectors because it fears independent confirmation that its costly 30-year nuclear program has been destroyed – but hope has never been an effective counterproliferation strategy….

“If Tehran takes any lesson from June, it should be that the United States is not afraid of using military force to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Trump resisted pressure from the vocal isolationist faction in his base, and he could do so again if he feels it is necessary to protect the nation’s security.”

Venezuela: President Nicolas Maduro on Monday said his country was at “maximum preparedness” and ready to respond if attacked by forces that the United States government has deployed to the Caribbean.

His comments during a news conference come as the U.S. government this week is set to boost its maritime force in the waters off Venezuela to combat threats from Latin America drug cartels. The U.S. has not signaled any planned land incursion by the thousands of personnel being deployed. Still, Maduro’s government has responded by deploying troops along its coast and border with neighboring Colombia, as well as by urging Venezuelans to enlist in a civilian militia.

“In the face of this maximum military pressure, we have declared maximum preparedness for the defense of Venezuela,” Maduro said of the deployment, which he characterized as “an extravagant, unjustifiable, immoral and absolutely criminal and bloody threat.”

The U.S. Navy now has two Aegis guided-missile destroyers – the USS Gravely and the USS Jason Dunham – in the Caribbean, as well as the destroyer USS Sampson and the cruiser USS Lake Erie in the waters off Latin America.  The presence expanded this week with three amphibious assault ships – a force that encompasses more than 4,000 sailors and Marines.

And Tuesday, President Trump said the U.S. had carried out a strike in the southern Caribbean against a drug-carrying vessel that departed from Venezuela and was operated by the Tren de Aragua gang.

The president said in a social media posting that 11 people were killed in the military operation and he posted a video of a small vessel exploding in flames.

“The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in international waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States,” Trump said in the post.  “No U.S. Forces were harmed in this strike.  Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America.”

Maduro didn’t address the strike directly, but charged that the U.S. is “coming for Venezuela’s riches,” including oil and gas.

Random Musings

—Presidential approval ratings…

Gallup: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 56% disapprove.  35% of independents approve (Aug. 1-20).

Rasmussen: 48% approve, 51% disapprove (Sept. 5).

–In the big New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to the latest Eagleton Center for Public Interest Poll, Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a 47% to 37% margin. But there is no doubt this race is still very competitive.  Interestingly, independents are split down the middle; 33% for Sherrill versus 32% for Ciattarelli, with 29% unsure.

According to state election data, there were 2,531,752 registered Democrats, 1,666,927 registered Republicans and 2,319,186 unaffiliated voters in New Jersey as of Aug. 1.

—Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) confirmed Tuesday she will not seek reelection in next year’s midterm elections, foregoing a third term. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), a reporter-turned-lawmaker who’s served in Congress since 2021, is likely best positioned to replace her.

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), 78, a Manhattan liberal who has served in the House for more than 30 years, said he plans to retire rather than seek reelection in 2026.

—A Wall Street Journal/NORC poll found that the share of people who say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating to 1987.  More than three-quarters said they lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own.

Nearly 70% of people said they believe the American dream – that if you work hard, you will get ahead – no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.

The poll found a somewhat brightening view of the current economy. Some 44% rated the economy as excellent or good, up from 38% a year ago, though still a smaller share than the 56% who now view the economy as not good or poor.

The poll also shows that Americans remain concerned about prices and worried about the future. The share saying rising prices were causing them major financial strains, at 28% of all respondents, was identical to a Journal-NORC poll in March 2023, when inflation was at 5%, higher than the 2.7% of today.

—President Trump on Truth Social:

“More than 15 Trillion Dollars will be invested in the USA, a RECORD.  Much of this investment is because of Tariffs. If a Radical Left Court is allowed to terminate these Tariffs, almost all of this investment, and much more, will be immediately cancelled!  In many ways, we would become a Third World Nation, with no hope of GREATNESS again.  TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!!! President DJT”

—

“Price are ‘WAY DOWN’ in the USA, with virtually no inflation. With the exception of ridiculous, corrupt politician approved ‘Windmills,’ which are killing every State and Country that uses them, Energy prices are falling, ‘big time.’ Gasoline is at many year lows.  All of this despite magnificent Tariffs, which are bringing in Trillions of Dollars from Countries that took total advantage of us, for decades, and are making America STRONGER and RESPECTED AGAIN!!!”

—

“Voter I.D. Must Be Part of Every Single Vote.  NO EXCEPTIONS! I Will Be Doing An Executive Order To That End!!!  Also, No Mail-In Voting, Except For Those That Are Very Ill, And The Far Away Military.  USE PAPER BALLOTS ONLY!!!  President DJT”

—

“NEVER FELT BETTER IN MY LIFE.  Also, DC IS A CRIME FREE ZONE!  President DJT”

—Nine former directors or acting directors of the C.D.C. under both Republican and Democratic administrations wrote a scathing op-ed for the New York Times titled “We Ran the C.D.C.: Kennedy Is Endangering Every American’s Health.”

“What the health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has done to the C.D.C. and to our nation’s public health system over the past several months – culminating in his decision to fire Dr. Susan Monarez as C.D.C. director days ago – is unlike anything we had ever seen at the agency and unlike anything our country had ever experienced.

“Mr. Kennedy has fired thousands of federal health workers and severely weakened programs designed to protect Americans from cancer, heart attacks, strokes, lead poisoning, injury, violence and more.  Amid the largest measles outbreak in the United States in a generation, he’s focused on unproven treatments while downplaying vaccines.  He canceled investments in promising medical research that will leave us ill prepared for future health emergencies.  He replaced experts on federal health advisory committees with unqualified individuals who share his dangerous and unscientific views.  He announced the end of U.S. support for global vaccination programs that protect millions of children and keep Americans safe, citing flawed research and making inaccurate statements. And he championed federal legislation that will cause millions of people with health insurance through Medicaid to lose their coverage.  Firing Dr. Monarez – which led to the resignations of top C.D.C. officials – adds considerable fuel to this raging fire….

“When the C.D.C. was created in 1946, the average life expectancy in the United States was around 66 years.  Today it is more than 78 years.  While medical advances have helped, it is public health that has played the biggest role in improving both the length and the quality of life in our nation.  The C.D.C. has led efforts to eradicate smallpox, increase access to lifesaving vaccinations and significantly reduce smoking rates. The agency is also on the front lines in communities across the country, delivering crucial but often less visible wins – such as containing an outbreak of H.I.V. cases in Scott County, Ind., and protecting residents in East Palestine, Ohio, from toxic chemical exposure.

“The C.D.C. is not perfect.  What institution is?  But over its history, regardless of which party has controlled the White House or Congress, the agency has not wavered from its mission. To those on the C.D.C. staff who continue to perform their jobs heroically in the face of the excruciating circumstances, we offer our sincere thanks and appreciation.  Their ongoing dedication is a model for all of us.  But it’s clear that the agency is hurting badly. The loss of Dr. Monarez and other top leaders will make it far more difficult for the C.D.C. to do what it has done for about 80 years: work around the clock to protect Americans from threats to their lives and health.

“We have a message for the rest of the nation as well. This is a time to rally to protect the health of every American.  Congress must exercise its oversight authority over Health and Human Services.  State and local governments must fill funding gaps where they can.  Philanthropy and the private sector must step up their community investments.  Medical groups must continue to stand up for science and truth.  Physicians must continue to support their patients with sound guidance and empathy.

“And each of us must do what public health does best: look out for one another.”

Maureen Dowd / New York Times

“Our health secretary is a certified quack.  But the president, who is letting Kennedy run wild, knows better. Trump got seriously ill from Covid and was saved by the doctors at Walter Reed, who gave him antibody treatments and remdesivir – not the remedy he once suggested people consider: bleach.  His greatest triumph – and a stirring example of American scientific chops – was Operation Warp Speed, a push to develop a Covid vaccine in less than a year, saving many lives and springing us from our awful sequestration.

“The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump told top donors that he wished he could brag about Operation Warp Speed.  But he can’t offend MAHA (the ironically named Make America Healthy Again movement). He can’t push his greatest accomplishment because of the willful ignorance of some of his supporters.

“Why does this notorious germaphobe play lickspittle to debunkers of science?”

Thursday, RFK Jr. appeared before the Senate Finance Committee to face questions from senators who worry his management of HHS as a vaccine skeptic has spawned nationwide confusion and raised the stakes for public health.

To say the least, it was rather tumultuous and RFK’s performance was abysmal.  He has to be removed, but Donald Trump likes the circus, public’s health be damned.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune had said Wednesday that the secretary needs to “restore public trust.”  That was hardly the case.

The hearing came amidst a background of Florida announcing Wednesday that it would become the first state to end all vaccine mandates, including for schoolchildren, rejecting a practice that public health experts have credited for decades with limiting the spread of infectious diseases.

Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo, the Florida surgeon general, made the announcement alongside Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).  DeSantis rose to national prominence during the coronavirus pandemic, and over time he has espoused increasingly anti-vaccine views.

“Who am I to tell you what your child should put in their body?” Dr. Ladapo, a vocal denigrator of vaccines, said to applause during an event in Valrico, Fla., near Tampa.  “Your body is a gift from God.”

He added that the administration would be “working to end” all vaccine mandates.  “Every last one of them is wrong and drips with disdain and slavery,” Dr. Ladapo said.

All 50 states have at least some vaccination requirements for children entering school, though all allow for medical exemptions, and most allow exemptions for religious or personal reasons.  The number of students receiving exemptions has been increasing in recent years, and immunization rates have been falling, according to KFF, a health policy research group.

Regarding RFK Jr.’s vaccine skepticism, and that of others, I saw this bit in the Washington Post today.

“Over the decades, it has become clear that strict school vaccine mandates mean more kids receive immunizations. The higher the vaccination rate, the less likely that infectious diseases will spread.  In 1900, infectious diseases made up the three leading causes of death in America, with 40 percent of these deaths occurring among children younger than 5.  A century later, not a single pathogen appears among the top 10 killers of children and adolescents.”

And then Friday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal broke a story that RFK Jr. plans to announce that pregnant women’s use of Tylenol is potentially linked to autism in a report that also will suggest a medicine derived from folate can be used to treat symptoms of the developmental disorder in some people, people familiar with the matter told the Journal.

Kennedy is expected to release the report this month.

Tylenol, whose active ingredient is acetaminophen, is a widely used pain reliever, including by pregnant women.  The Journal notes: “Some previous studies have indicated risks to fetal development, but others have found no association. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says it is safe to use in pregnancy, though it recommends pregnant women consult with their doctors before using it, as with all medicines.”

Tylenol is made by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a division of Kenvue, and other companies make similar acetaminophen-based products.

Kenvue, a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, has its headquarters in my hometown of Summit, N.J., at the total opposite end of the street I live on, while I’m across from a huge Bristol-Meyers facility.

I can guarantee what you will hear this weekend is that this report, if accurate, will lead to massive class-action lawsuits against Kenvue, with RFK Jr.’s associates in the trial-lawyer community, chief beneficiaries.

Kenvue shares this afternoon fell 16%.

—White House advisers have reportedly discussed the possibility of giving New York City Mayor Eric Adams an administrative job as a way to clear the field in November’s mayoral election for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the New York Times reported, ditto Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

Politico reported Adams was offered a position at the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  Further reports today have Adams being offered the position of U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Cuomo allies and New York real estate executives have been searching for ways to undercut Zohran Mamdani’s rise.

—The unemployment rate among Black Americans has surged to 7.5%, the highest level since September 2021.  This is a probable election issue come the mid-terms that Democrats can exploit.

—Homicide rates in Chicago have indeed been coming down in recent years, like virtually all big cities since the big spike during the pandemic.  Everyone knows that.

But as I said the other week, a big part of the discussion is “perception,” and as a 2025 University of Chicago survey reported roughly half of Chicagoans feel unsafe in their neighborhoods at night.

That’s what city officials are dealing with.  New York City’s homicide rate is going to finish the year near record lows, if not an outright record, but the perception is far different, and that’s just a fact.

—The president’s emergency takeover of the Washington, D.C. police force will expire Sept. 10.  To continue further, the House and Senate would need to pass a joint resolution authorizing an extension, which doesn’t appear to be forthcoming.  There are no constraints on how long Trump can use the National Guard and federal law enforcement in the city.  And D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) on Tuesday welcome federal law enforcement officials to stay in D.C. indefinitely, a powerful indication of her willingness to cooperate with President Trump’s effort to take over public safety in the capital city.  Bowser’s announcement may quell any showdown over what happens after that deadline passes by authorizing continued cooperation between the city and federal authorities.

But the story is very different outside of D.C., thus the legal issues concerning moving into cities such as Baltimore and Chicago…or New Orleans.

On Tuesday, federal judge, Charles Breyer, ruled Trump’s use of the National Guard in Los Angeles broke the law.

“Congress spoke clearly in 1878 when it passed the Posse Comitatus Act, prohibiting the use of the U.S. military to execute domestic law,” Breyer wrote.  He ruled troops actively assisted law enforcement, such as doing traffic control for a raid on a cannabis farm 80 miles from downtown, L.A.

Breyer did say the 300 National Guard still in L.A. can stay there, and they can “continue to protect federal property in a manner consistent with the Posse Comitatus Act.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“(Trump’s) options in Chicago are fewer (than D.C.), since the President lacks the power to boss around state and local police.  Last week Mayor (Brandon) Johnson signed an order that says Chicago cops can’t be assigned to joint patrols or arrest operations ‘alongside federal law enforcement, or military personnel or National Guard units engaging in civil immigration enforcement.’….

“If protests in Chicago (over the threat of the president using the National Guard) get violent, Mr. Trump might again say he needs the National Guard to protect federal agents or buildings.  But that’s a limited mission, not the kind of street cleanup of violent neighborhoods that Mr. Trump keeps promising.  If he tries to use troops for that job, he’s asking for another federal ruling that he’s breaking the Posse Comitatus law.  He can invoke the Insurrection Act to call in troops to restore public order, but that should be a last resort to quell riots.

“Most Americans want cops on the beat, not soldiers in the streets. Governors sometimes deploy their own National Guard units to back up law enforcement, as when New York Gov. Kathy Hochul sent troops into the subways last year, but that’s state action and can be exempt from Posse Comitatus.  For Mr. Trump to declare an insurrection to send in federal troops over the objections of an elected Governor would be a risky escalation.

“Chicago’s chronic crime problem belongs to (Gov. JB) Pritzker and Mr. Johnson, the country’s worst mayor.  Mr. Trump can’t duplicate there or elsewhere what he’s doing in D.C., because there’s no place in America that is like the nation’s federal capital.

“But if Mr. Trump’s anticrime push makes D.C. safer for good, the President will be able to say he showed residents in America’s big cities that they don’t have to put up with the daily violence and mayhem that’s tolerated by their failing political class.”

—President Trump called efforts to make public more details about Jeffrey Epstein a politically driven hoax, just as some of the convicted sex offender’s victims visited Capitol Hill to tell their stories of abuse and implored the president and Congress to release further records.

“This is a Democrat hoax that never ends,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, sticking to his position on the controversy that has hung over the White House all summer.  He said “nobody is ever satisfied” with the Epstein-related documents that have been released and that it was designed to be a distraction from his record in office.

Friday, Trump, in a long Truth Social screed, again said:

“This is merely another Democrat HOAX, just like Russia, Russia, Russia, and all of the others, in order to deflect and distract from the great success of a Republican President, and the record setting failure of the previous Administration, and the Democrat Party.  The Department of Justice has done its job, they have given everything requested of them. It’s time to end the Democrat Epstein Hoax, and give the Republicans credit for the great, even legendary, job that they are doing.  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”

Legendary jobs numbers, Mr. President?!  Failure to end the war in Ukraine as you promised?!

—The top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee said he was blocked from a planned visit to a major U.S. spy agency as part of his routine congressional oversight duties after a series of social media posts by Laura Loomer, the far-right activist and provocateur.

Sen. Mark R. Warner of Virginia had arranged meetings with top officials this Friday at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyzes data from spy satellites for the Pentagon and intelligence community, but said his visit was abruptly canceled late Tuesday night after Loomer attacked him and the agency’s director online.

“This is the kind of thing that happens in authoritarian regimes,” Warner told a small group of reporters Wednesday morning, referencing the canceled visit and purge this year of intelligence officials.  [Washington Post]

—Australia’s leaders on Monday condemned anti-immigration protests over the weekend that saw tens of thousands of people gather in cities across the country, chanting slogans like “send them back” and “stop the invasion.”

The government has described the protests as racist and politicians from both sides of the aisle expressed concerns about the presence of neo-Nazi groups.

Australia is grappling with the growing threat of extremist ideology, amid a rise of far-right nationalism in countries around the world.  Australia prides itself on its multiculturalism, but experts say discontent among some groups has been growing because of a lack of affordable housing and soaring living costs.

Some 15,000 gathered for the “March for Australia” anti-immigration rally in Sydney on Sunday.  There were counter-protesters.

—Severe flooding across the fertile plains of Pakistan’s Punjab has inundated 2,000 villages.  Approximately 760,000 people and 516,000 animals have been evacuated and at least 400 have died in less than a week.

The floods are destroying the livelihoods for hundreds of thousands, including from cotton, which makes up more than half of Pakistan’s exports, at a time when the country faces a 19% U.S. tariff in its biggest market.

Floods in northern India have also killed “hundreds” and devasted crops.

—The death toll from Afghanistan’s worst earthquake in years jumped to over 2,200 with thousands more injured, as difficult terrain hindered rescue efforts in isolated villages of the country’s mountainous region.  Two smaller earthquakes also hit the region, on top of the aftershocks, compounding the disaster.

—At least 1,000 people were killed in a landslide that destroyed a village in the mountainous Jebel Marra area in the Darfur region of Sudan, leaving only one survivor, the armed group that controls the area said.

—Two people have died and at least 22 more have been hospitalized because of a flesh-eating bacteria in Louisiana, state health officials confirmed over the weekend.

The reports involved Vibrio vulnificus bacteria, which is found in saltwater and brackish water as well as raw or undercooked seafood.  The latest infections bring the state’s death toll to four so far this year, as reported by USA TODAY.

The latest deaths were from eating raw oysters, which a lot of us love.

The bacterium naturally occurs in warm coastal waters, often between May and October, according to the CDC.  It can also be contracted through open wounds during contact with water.

—Portugal is a nation in mourning after a horrific accident Wednesday, when a vintage Lisbon funicular that is a popular tourist attraction crashed and killed 16 people and injured scores more, many severely.

The vehicle lost control as it was traveling down a steep hill in the center of Lisbon.  The ride on the funicular, called the Elevador da Gloria, typically lasts only a few minutes.  A broken cable is the suspected cause of the accident, but an investigation is underway.

Many of the victims were tourists.  Very sad.

—The Bayeux Tapestry, which documents the Norman invasion of England in 1066, was closed to the public in France on Monday as opposition mounts ahead of its move to London.

The next time it will be possible to see the nearly 1,000-year-old work of art should be when it goes on display at the British Museum in September next year.

However, as the BBC reports, the French art world is fiercely opposed to the project, with experts fearing the 70m-long (230 foot) masterpiece is in far too delicate a state to be transported across the Channel.

So, I have to say that in my 7/11 WIR, I noted how I had seen the Tapestry in 1995, and with this in mind, I said “it is indeed spectacular.  It’s also very fragile.  Frankly, I would not ship it.”

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $3648…another record high, and up over $130 on the week…To the Moon, Alice!
Oil $62.06

Bitcoin: $111,615 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.20; Diesel: $3.71 [$3.30 – $3.68 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 9/1-9/5

Dow Jones  -0.3%  [45400]
S&P 500  +0.3%  [6481]
S&P MidCap  +1.3%
Russell 2000  +1.0%
Nasdaq  +1.1%  [21700]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-9/5/25

Dow Jones  +6.7%
S&P 500  +10.2%
S&P MidCap  +5.6%
Russell 2000  +7.2%
Nasdaq  +12.4%

Bulls 54.9
Bears 17.6

Hang in there.  Pet a dog.

Brian Trumbore