[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,377
Wednesday afternoon, we received the shocking news that leading Republican activist and founder of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk, had been shot while on stage at Utah Valley University. His death was then announced shortly thereafter; Kirk having been shot in the neck with a single bullet.
The 31-year-old Kirk, married with two young kids, was a skilled tactician, who mobilized young people like no other and played a major role in the 2024 election victory for Donald Trump.
The killer had arrived on campus shortly before noon and used a stairway to make his way to the roof of a campus building overlooking the site of Mr. Kirk’s scheduled appearance, according to officials.
By Thursday, authorities were able to release images and a video of the individual fleeing the scene, and later they released enhanced images that would prove to be a key.
Utah Governor Spencer Cox said Wednesday the state will be pursuing the death penalty when the suspect is caught. Cox also accused other nations of trying to cause unrest in the U.S.
“What we’re seeing is our adversaries want violence,” Cox said. “We have bots from Russia, China, all over the world, that are trying to instill disinformation and encourage violence. I would encourage you to ignore those, to turn off those streams and spend a little more time with our families.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said his nation condemns all illegal and violent acts.
“At the same time, we firmly oppose some politicians in the U.S. who frequently use China as a pretext, and firmly oppose the spread of false information, slander and smearing of China,” he told a regular press briefing in Beijing on Friday.
But then Friday morning, following a flurry of activity Thursday night, Gov. Cox was able to announce that the killer had been captured and was being held in custody, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, who was not a student at the school. Authorities said that with the release of the new images, friends and family then identified Robinson.
Gov. Cox said in part: “We can return violence with violence, we can return hate with hate. That’s the problem with political violence. It metastasizes. We can always point the finger at the other side. At some point we have to find an offramp, or else it’s going to get much worse.”
Cox encouraged people not to view videos on social media showing the moment Charlie Kirk was shot.
“This is not good for us, this is not good to consume,” he said. “Social media is a cancer in our society right now, and I would encourage people to log off, turn off, touch grass, go hug a family member, go out and do good in the community.”
Amen.
In a video posted Wednesday evening on Kirk’s death, President Trump said: “It’s long past time for all Americans and the media to confront the fact that violence and murder are the tragic consequences of demonizing those with whom you disagree day after day, year after year, in the most hateful and despicable way possible.”
Trump added:
“For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today, and it must stop right now.” The president also vowed to “find each and every one of those who contributed to this atrocity, and to other political violence, including the organizations that fund it and support it, as well as those who go after our judges, law enforcement officials, and everyone else who brings order to our country.”
To say the least, Trump’s tone wasn’t what was needed in the moment.
Former President George W. Bush, on the other hand, hit the mark.
“Today, a young man was murdered in cold blood while expressing his political views. It happened on a college campus, where the open exchange of opposing ideas should be sacrosanct. Violence and vitriol must be purged from the public square. Members of other political parties are not our enemies; they are our fellow citizens. May God bless Charlie Kirk and his family, and may God guide America toward civility.”
Bruce Hoffman, who specializes in counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Associated Press: “In the past, we had elected officials that would seek to bring the country together rather than to cast blame… We’ll have to see what in the coming days our national leaders have to say about this, and whether they can be effective in lowering the temperature.”
Mike Jensen, a researcher at the University of Maryland, told Reuters: “This is an administration that, whether you agree with it or not, has made profound changes to this country in the eight months it’s been in office. Some people love it; some people hate it. The people that hate it are starting to act out. People who love it are going to act out against those people that hate it, and it becomes a vicious spiral that could lead us into something really, really bad.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The killing of Charlie Kirk, a 31-year-old father of two and a prominent political leader on the right, is another horrifying scene in a country that is heartsick of witnessing them….
“(Kirk) built his movement, Turning Point USA, the old-fashioned way: through political debate. His method was to appear on college campuses and welcome all comers to take him on with questions and opposing points of view. He did this amid the height of cancel culture and the worst of screaming mobs on campus who wanted to shut down conservative speakers.
“This is a now dangerous moment for the country, which could descend into a cycle of political violence that would be hard to arrest. President Trump survived two assassination attempts. In June two Democratic state lawmakers in Minnesota were shot, one of whom was killed. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s home was firebombed in April. Three years ago a contemplated assassin gave himself up outside Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s house. Rep. Steve Scalise was shot in 2017 and Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2011.
“The perpetrators of these attacks range in the degree of their mental illness and delusion, but American society has steadily dismantled the civil and social guardrails that used to prevent such troubled minds from straying so disastrously from civilized social norms.
“The rise of the internet instead means there’s a content niche for almost everything, including obscene narratives in which Luigi Mangione is a folk hero for allegedly assassinating Brian Thompson, a 50-year-old father of two and a health-insurance CEO, on a New York street. What will social media’s ghouls say about Kirk?
“At the same time, the political rhetoric is at a pitch that could hardly be higher. Losing the next election means the end of America, each side says, and the political opposition is often portrayed as not merely profoundly wrong or mistaken but intentionally trying to destroy the country, shred the Constitution, institute fascist rule. The crazy rage on the political left is especially acute at the moment given Mr. Trump’s polarizing Presidency.
“To some, this is all part of the partisan game. Disturbed listeners are less capable of separating rhetoric from reality.”
Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal
“During recent national traumas we’ve heard the side argument over ‘thoughts and prayers.’ Something terrible happens, someone sends thoughts and prayers, someone else snaps, ‘We don’t need your prayers, we need action.’ They denounce the phrase only because they don’t understand it, and give unwitting offense. (I always hope it is unwitting.)
“Prayer is action. It’s effort. It takes time. Christians believe God is an actual participant in history. He’s here, every day, in the trenches. He didn’t create the universe and disappear into the mists: his creation is an ongoing event; he is here in the world with you. When something terrible happens and you talk to him – that’s what prayer is, talking to him, communication with concentration – you are actively asking for help, for intercession. ‘Please help her suffering, help their children, they are so alone.’ ‘Help me be brave through this.’
“It’s active, not passive.
“So pray now for America. We are in big trouble.
“We all know this. We don’t even know what to do with what we know. But the assassination of Charlie Kirk feels different as an event, like a hinge point, like something that is going to reverberate in new dark ways. It isn’t just another dreadful thing. It carries the ominous sense that we’re at the beginning of something bad. Michael Smerconish said on CNN Thursday afternoon that normally after such an event the temperature goes down a little, but not in this case, and he’s right. There are the heartbroken and the indifferent and they are irreconcilable. X, formerly Twitter, was from the moment of the shooting overrun with anguish and rage: It’s on now. Bluesky, where supposedly gentler folk fled Elon Musk, was gleefully violent: Too bad, live by the gun, die by the gun.
But what a disaster all this is for the young. Kirk was a presence in the life of a whole generation of young conservatives, and he set a kind of template for how to discuss politics – with good cheer and confidence, with sincerity and a marshaling of facts. He was literally willing to meet people where they are. Mainstream media has understandably presented him as a political person, but he was almost as much an evangelical one, a Christian unembarrassed to talk about his faith’s importance to him. All the young who followed him saw the horrifying video of the moment the bullet hit him. They will remember it all their lives, it will be part of their understanding of politics in America. They will ask: If you are killed for speaking the truth as you see it, are you really free? Is this a free country?
“For young conservatives who have felt cowed or disdained on campus, Kirk’s message was no, don’t be afraid, stand and argue your position. That he was killed literally while doing that – I am not sure we understand the generational trauma there….
“(The) assassinations of the 1960s took place in a healthier country, one that respected itself more and was, for all its troubles, more at ease with itself. It had give. Part of why this moment is scary is that we are brittler, and we love each other less, maybe even love ourselves less. We have less respect for our own history, our story, and so that can’t act as the adhesive it once was. The assassinations of the 1960s felt anomalous, unlike us. Now political violence feels like something we do, which is a painful thought….
“We’re going to have to be strong, not lose our heads, and not give in to demoralization. William F. Buckley used to say, ‘Despair is a mortal sin.’ You wouldn’t feel it if you had faith that God is living through history with you. Hold your hope and faith high and intact, keep our perspective in the long term.
“An assassination is the intentional and deliberate killing of a person for political reasons. It has a purpose: to alter events, to remove a leader, to intimidate and punish enemies.
“What we all have to do now is not let that purpose succeed.
“I asked Father Gerald Murray what advice might be hopeful. Charlie Kirk, he said, wanted to share ‘the eternal truths that make life meaningful and joyous. He did so by reasoned argument and dialogue. His example should inspire us to pick up the baton that fell from his hand.’”
George F. Will / Washington Post
“Addressing what he called, with notable understatement, ‘my dissatisfied fellow-countrymen,’ Lincoln said in his first inaugural: ‘We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies.’ When he spoke, seven states had voted to secede. The nation was fractured by disagreement about the right of some human beings to own other human beings.
“Today, American politics is embittered by many disagreements, but not even all of them cumulatively begin to justify the insanely disproportionate furies that so many people on both sides of the metaphoric barricades relish feeling. Perhaps they feel important, even to themselves, only when cloaked in the derivative importance that comes from immersion in apocalyptic politics. Politics too grand to settle for merely keeping the peace that gives congeniality a chance.
“Kirk, like (William F.) Buckley, was a teacher unconfined to a classroom. Anyone is such who argues for a living – who by welcoming interlocutors pays them the compliment of acknowledging the kinship of all serious users of language. It is horrific that nowadays this can be fatal.”
*Personally, I would just stress, as I go to post Friday p.m., that I wish everyone would employ my dictum, “wait 24 hours,” and just wait for all the evidence on who Tyler Robinson really is, what his twisted beliefs may actually be, before spouting off.
But that’s not how our society and culture works these days. I can’t stand it…which leads to dictum No. 2… “I don’t suffer fools (idiots) gladly.”
—
Wall Street and the Economy
Trump’s economic sway over tariffs, interest rates and job creation will be tested before the year ends, as the Supreme Court on Tuesday agreed to examine the legal underpinnings of the president’s use of emergency authority to impose steep tariffs on goods from dozens of trading partners. And the Federal Reserve meets next week, where they are expected to cut the benchmark funds rate.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s tariffs, the Treasury would be forced to refund about half of what it has collected, “which would be terrible.” But he told NBC News he was confident the administration would prevail.
On the data front, it was all about the inflation figures for August and Wednesday, we had the producer price index report which, unlike last month’s negative surprise, was a most positive one.
The headline PPI was -0.1% when 0.3% was expected. Ex-food and energy, it was also -0.1% vs. consensus at 0.3%. Year-over-year, headline PPI was up 2.6%, on core, 2.8%, both also well below forecasts.
President Trump posted:
“Just out: No Inflation!!! ‘Too Late’ must lower the RATE, BIG, right now. Powell is a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue!!! President DJT”
So then we awaited Thursday’s CPI, and it was essentially in line, though headline month-over-month was a tick higher than consensus, 0.4%, but 2.9% year-over-year. On core, the figures were 0.3% and 3.1%.
The year-over-year core of 3.1% was the same as July’s and is far from the Fed’s 2% target.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Our friends on Wall Street and in Washington keep saying that inflation is vanquished as they hope – plead – for lower interest rates. Yet the economic data aren’t bearing out their optimism, as the Labor Department’s consumer price report for August revealed on Thursday….
“Price increases last month were broad-based, hitting food consumed at home (0.6%), alcohol (0.6%), children’s shoes (1.5%), clothing (0.5%), new cars (0.3%), used cars (1.0%), housing (0.4%), hotels (2.6%), vehicle repair (5.0%), air fares (5.9%) and more.
“The index for so-called core prices (less volatile food and energy) wasn’t more reassuring….
“President Trump’s tariffs are clearly driving up some prices, especially in food and goods….
“Businesses report that they’ve run through inventory they stockpiled before Mr. Trump’s tariff barrage and are starting to pass on their higher costs to customers. Auto-repair shops are getting whacked by Mr. Trump’s 25% tariff on parts and 50% on steel and aluminum. The tariffs could also have indirect effects. Used cars prices are increasing because the supply has shrunk as people hold onto their jalopies longer because they can’t afford new cars.
“At the same time, Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies are contributing to labor shortages, which may be pushing up wages and prices in industries like agriculture, construction and hospitality….
“Buoyant consumer spending, rising prices, and frothy stock valuations suggest that current interest rates aren’t all that restrictive. While many lower and middle-income Americans are stretched, ebullient markets may in part be fueling more spending by the affluent and creating a wealth effect….
“What’s fueling stock prices? In part expectations that the Fed may cut rates sharply this fall because of signs the labor market is weakening.
“All of which makes next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee more difficult than Wall Street hopes. A 25 basis-point cut is probably in the bag after last week’s labor report showed a summer stall in job creation. But the Fed has to worry about persistent inflation above its 2% target. Easier money may help Wall Street, but it won’t counter the economic policy mistakes that are to blame for Main Street’s malaise.”
Speaking of labor issues, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its preliminary part of an annual process, known as benchmarking, in which the BLS updates the job figures from its monthly employer survey using more comprehensive data from state unemployment tax records. The official revision will come in February.
But this week’s report showed the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months that ended in March, trimming by a bit more than half the 1.79 million jobs the official data now show. If this holds come February, it will bring the average pace of seasonally adjusted employment gains from 147,000 jobs a month over the period to a bit over 70,000. Yes, rather ugly, and ammunition for the Fed to cut.
[In a speech in Miami last month, Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited the forthcoming benchmarking revision as one reason that he supported cutting interest rates at the meeting next week.]
Further, the weekly jobless claims figure was way above expectations, to the highest level in four years.
One more item of note…the Treasury Department released the federal budget deficit figures for August…a deficit of $340 billion, compared with $380 billion last August and $291 billion in July. Tariff revenue was about $30 billion.
The fiscal year, ending Sept. 30, will show a deficit of around $1.9 trillion. Net interest expense for the first 11 months of F2025 is $933 billion, vs. $841 billion spent on defense.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is at 3.1%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 15 basis points to 6.35%, lowest in 11 months. That’s good news.
Next week, aside from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Chair Powell’s press conference after, we have a key reading on August retail sales.
—
Meanwhile, a federal judge late on Tuesday blocked President Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors while a lawsuit challenging her firing proceeds.
Judge Jia Cobb in Washington, D.C., granted Cook’s request for a temporary court order to keep her seat on the seven-member board for now.
Cobb said Cook is “substantially likely” to succeed on her claim that Trump violated the Federal Reserve Act because her purported termination didn’t comply with the statute’s requirement that officials can only be removed for cause.
“Removal was not meant to be based on the President’s assumptions about the official’s future performance as extrapolated from unproven conduct dating from before they assumed the office,” Cobb wrote.
“This ruling recognizes and reaffirms the importance of safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve from illegal political interference,” Cook’s attorney Abbe Lowell said in a statement.
“Allowing the President to unlawfully remove Governor Cook on unsubstantiated and vague allegations would endanger the stability of our financial system and undermine the rule of law.”
This is likely headed to the Supreme Court quickly, as the administration has appealed the decision.
But the administration is racing to sideline Cook before next week’s meeting, filing an emergency motion late Thursday, urging the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to issue a stay by Monday.
As for Stephan Miran, President Trump’s choice to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed Board for the balance of her expiring term, Miran cleared the Senate Banking Committee but to get him confirmed in time for the FOMC gathering would seem to be an impossible task.
Separately, President Trump said he saw White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the finalists to replace Jerome Powell.
—
The White House on Tuesday sent congressional leaders a list of demands for the government funding stopgap, including asking that the government shutdown deadline of Sept. 30 be moved to Jan. 31.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing for an “old-school conference” to approve up to three regular government funding bills, with the House’s top GOP appropriator signaling they are close to a deal to do just that in conjunction with a stopgap.
Such a move, if Democrats agree, could avert a government shutdown at the end of the month – but would conflict with hard-liners in the House GOP who are advocating for a long-term continuing resolution as long as a year.
But at week’s end, Democratic leaders weren’t hopeful. Next week is critical, because Congress is out the week of Sept. 22 in observance of Rosh Hashanah.
Europe and Asia
No economic data of import for the eurozone this week.
But in France, the government of Francois Bayrou, the centrists prime minister who has been in office for just nine months, collapsed, as expected; the National Assembly, or lower House of Parliament, voting overwhelmingly against Bayrou, 364-194, in a confidence motion he had called with the aim of setting out the gravity of France’s ballooning debt and budget deficit, and the need to confront them by finding annual savings of at least $51 billion.
President Emmanuel Macron, who is term limited and obliged to give up the presidency in about 18 months, is not a lame duck but he has a 15 percent approval rating, according to an opinion poll this month for Le Figaro Magazine.
The French budget deficit is now nearly $198 billion, or 5.8 percent of GDP, well above the 3 percent limit set by the European Union for countries using the euro currency.
The core of the economic issue is one of national identity. In France, the social safety net, which includes education, health care and pensions, is the near sacred expression of the Revolution’s call for a “fraternal” society.
Any attempt to curtail social benefits is near anathema, as was made clear by an intense conflict in 2023 over Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62, and by the furious response to Bayrou’s proposal to eliminate two public holidays in order to increase production and raise tax revenue.
Tuesday, Macron named a close ally, Sebastien Lecornu, as new prime minister. Lecornu, 39, has spent the past three years as armed forces minister, with a focus on France’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Lecornu now faces the same challenges as his predecessor, including getting a cost-cutting budget past parliament without a majority.
Turning to Asia…China’s exports for August were up 4.4% vs. 7.2% prior, with imports up just 1.3%, well below consensus.
The export figure was the slowest pace of outbound shipments since February, weighed down by a temporary easing of tariff pressures and waning demand from its top consumer market. Exports to the U.S. plunged 33.1%, but rose 10.4% to the EU.
August inflation was unchanged over July, and down 0.4% year-over-year. Producer prices in the month fell 2.9% Y/Y. Deflation here is not good.
Japan released its final look at second-quarter GDP, 2.2% annualized, better than expected, up 0.5% vs. the prior quarter. It was the fifth straight quarter of annual growth and the fastest pace since Q3 2024, boosted by solid private consumption.
August producer prices fell 0.2% compared with July, but were up 2.7% from a year ago.
Also, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced he will step down, following weeks of calls for his departure in the aftermath of a second national election setback.
The Liberal Democratic Party now needs to hold an election for a new party leader, most likely in early October.
Street Bytes
—The market hit new highs this week in anticipation of a series of rate cuts from the Fed. I don’t think the recent leg of the rally is warranted, but I’ve been wrong. I continue to sleep with one eye open so you don’t have to.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit record closes Thursday, the Nasdaq furthered its gains Friday.
On the week, the Dow finished at 45834 (having crossed 46000) yesterday, up 0.9%, the S&P rose 1.6% and Nasdaq 2.0%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.85% 2-yr. 3.55% 10-yr. 4.06% 30-yr. 4.68%
Treasury yields on the long end of the curve fell further on the downward revisions to the employment data for the period ending in March, as well as better than expected (generally) inflation data and a troublesome weekly jobless claims figure.
But getting through 4.00% on the 10-year has proved difficult. It’s all about the Fed’s comments in its accompanying statement next week, as well as the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will offer clues to any further rate cuts down the road.
—OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase production again next month, as the group doubles down on its policy shift to pursue market share instead of defending prices.
Key alliance members said they expect to add about 137,000 barrels during a video call on Sunday, as the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia begins unwinding the next layer of halted supplies. An October increase will start the return of 1.66 million barrels a day of cuts that were scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.
The group stunned oil markets in recent months by reviving 2.2 million barrels of halted production a full year ahead of schedule in a bid to reclaim market share – and despite widespread expectations of an impending surplus.
Crude prices have retreated 12% this year, pressured by increased supply from OPEC+ countries and elsewhere, and as President Trump’s trade war weighs on demand.
If OPEC+ keeps returning about 137,000 barrels a month, it would be on pace to unwind the full 1.66 million barrels within one year.
—Gold continued to hit new highs this week, as China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak for a 10th straight month in August, part of a broader rush into the precious metal by global central banks.
China’s foreign exchange regulator said the country’s gold holdings rose to 74.02 million ounces at the end of August, an increase of 60,000 ounces from July. The jump helped push Comex gold futures to US$3,639.8 an ounce on Sunday, up 37.9 percent this year.
—South Korea and the U.S. reached a deal to release Korean citizens who were detained last week in a large-scale immigration raid at a Hyundai Motor plant in Georgia, according to the office of the South Korean president.
Kang Hoon-sik, chief of staff of South Korea’s presidential office, said Sunday that Seoul has concluded talks with the U.S. to release Korean citizens who were detained in Thursday’s raid.
A chartered plane was then sent to the U.S. to bring the South Korean citizens home, Kang said, and the 300 were allowed to fly home, arriving in Seoul this morning. No criminal charges had been filed.
The largest-ever single-site immigration raid at the construction site of an electric-vehicle battery factory near Savannah, Ga., was stunning. The factory is a joint venture between Hyundai and fellow South Korean firm LG Energy Solution.
On Sunday, U.S. border czar Tom Homan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that these workplace raids will continue because they help secure the border. “You’re going to see a lot more worksite enforcement operations,” Homan said. “It’s a crime to knowingly hire an illegal alien.”
Homan said employers hire people in the country illegally because they want to pay them less and undercut competing American workers.
Of the 475 people who were detained in the raid, around 300 were South Korean citizens, according to South Korea’s foreign ministry (the figure was later put at 317).
Hyundai said none of the detained were directly employed by the company, while LG Energy said 47 of its employees – all South Koreans except one Indonesian – had been arrested, as well as roughly 250 workers at subcontracted companies.
LG Energy said it was halting most business trips to the U.S. and directing employees on assignment in the U.S. to return home immediately or remain in their accommodations. Hyundai urged caution to employees traveling to the U.S.
U.S. authorities have said that those arrested had illegally crossed the border, entered through a visa waiver program that prohibited them from working or had overstayed their visas.
The raid rattled South Korea, with Seoul not given prior notice of the raid by U.S. officials. Just last month, President Lee Jae-myung met with President Trump, and the two men reaffirmed their countries’ seven-decade-old alliance. They also agreed to their trade deal then.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry issued an unusual statement last Friday, conveying its “concern and regrets” to Washington.
“The economic activities of our investment companies and the rights and interests of our citizens must not be unjustly violated during U.S. law enforcement proceedings,” it said.
An editorial carried on Saturday by Dong-A Ilbo, a mass-circulation South Korean daily, called the raid a “shock.” “It will put a chilling effect on the activities of our businesses in the United States,” it said.
The South Korean nationals were largely given visas suitable for training purposes, such as the B-1 visa, and many there were working as instructors, according to a South Korean government official.
South Korea had previously expressed frustration over the lack of visas reserved for the country that would make it easier to send its skilled workers to the U.S.
Hyundai has bet big on expanding its U.S. footprint. The site where the raid was conducted was Georgia’s largest-ever manufacturing investment. Since President Trump took office, Hyundai has pledged to spend another $26 billion in America.
South Korea has been one of the largest foreign direct investors into the U.S., pledging to build American production sites for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, ships and other strategic industries.
In late July, South Korea agreed to $350 billion in U.S. investments, in addition to another $100 billion in American energy purchases, as part of a pact with the U.S. that would lower its reciprocal tariff rate to 15% from a proposed 25%. Autos, including South Korea-made Hyundai vehicles, would also face a 15% levy as part of the agreement.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The sweeping ICE operation in Georgia Thursday that rounded up some 475 illegal workers at a showcase development project is intended as a warning to employers nationwide. It also illustrates the America First contradiction of demanding foreign investment in the U.S. while shrinking the available workforce….
“Most of the arrested were Korean nationals, while some were Mexican. A Homeland Security spokesman told the press the migrants either crossed the border illegally, overstayed their visas, or arrived on visas that didn’t allow them to work.
“That last point is important because it suggests some of the Koreans may have been here temporarily to supervise construction or to train Americans. Quality control is crucial to a successful manufacturing operation, and companies often bring in experienced employers from the home country to ensure it.
“Both Korean companies said they follow immigration law and are cooperating with ICE. But some of the illegal migrants may have worked for contractors helping to build the battery plant. The construction industry can’t find enough American workers these days, so migrants with fake documentation often fill the gap. The eternity it takes to build anything in the U.S. would be worse without these workers.
“Americans want the law enforced, but raiding legal workplaces isn’t going after criminal gangs or murderers. The Georgia raid shows the Trump Administration’s priority is deporting every illegal migrant no matter how long they have worked here. This makes every employer a potential target of an ICE raid if the agency suspects foreigners are working there.
“This is already having a notable impact on the U.S. labor market, as recent monthly jobs reports suggest. It’s hard to know how much the foreign-born workforce is shrinking, and that will be clearer as seasonally adjusted data arrive. But if President Trump wants a smaller U.S. population, he is going to get a weaker labor market and economy for Americans.
“How about asking Congress to create more legal ways to enter and work in the U.S.?”
LG Energy has tentatively decided to postpone the start of its EV battery plant with Hyundai, LG having initially planned to begin production later this year. Production plans for Hyundai and its affiliate Kia will be impacted.
Thursday, President Lee said on Thursday that if Washington does not ease visa requirements for workers from his country, its businesses would hesitate to build new factories there, his strongest warning since the immigration raid.
Lee said during a news conference, if the United States does not help resolve the visa problem and continues to crack down on other South Korean workers, “it can seriously affect” South Korean businesses’ plans for future direct investments there, Lee said.
—Oracle shares soared an amazing 35% Wednesday after the company reported earnings after the close Tuesday that presented a mixed picture on the financials, but the company revealed a significant increase in its backlog of contracted work.
Adjusted earnings per share for Oracle’s fiscal first quarter rose to $1.47 versus consensus of $1.48, and up from $1.39 last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $14.9 billion, also a tick behind expectations for $15.0 billion, and up 12% over last year.
And Oracle missed expectations for cloud services revenue growth, a key metric. Guidance for the current quarter was thin.
So why did the shares soar?
Oracle’s contracted backlog, at $455 billion, was the main headline, up from just $138 billion in the fourth quarter. The figure is indicative of the intense demand for renting AI servers in the cloud, a business that the firm, chaired by Larry Ellison, has only recently entered after years in the database market.
Once just a vendor of packaged software, Oracle is shifting customers to cloud-based versions with annual subscriptions, while at the same time launching a public cloud to compete with Amazon.com’s Amazon Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure.
Oracle’s cloud growth has been made possible by the artificial-intelligence boom, and the rapidly expanding demand for renting AI servers in the cloud. First-quarter revenue from Oracle’s public cloud services were up 55% over the previous year.
“We signed four multi-billion dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1,” Oracle CEO Safra Catz said in the earnings release. “Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO [backlog] is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.”
“We have signed significant cloud contracts with the who’s who of AI, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, Nvidia, AMD and many others,” she revealed in the earnings call.
Ellison spoke to the intense pace of demand. “Someone called us: ‘We’ll take all the capacity you have that’s currently not being used anywhere in the world. We don’t care,” he said during the call. “And I’ve never gotten a call like that.”
Oracle expects $35 billion in capital expenditures, up from $1.6 billion in 2020 before the shift to data centers began. The rocketing backlog will require even more capex to support it.
Cloud services represented nearly half of revenue in the first quarter, up from 25% in the first quarter of 2022.
“We expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year – and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years,” Catz said in a statement Tuesday.
Larry Ellison’s fortune soared $100 billion to $400 billion, pushing him into the range of Elon Musk as the world’s richest person.
We then learned from the Wall Street Journal that OpenAI has committed to spend around $300 billion over five years with Oracle. The deal would require 4.5 gigawatts of capacity, roughly comparable to the power produced by more than two Hoover Dams or the amount consumed by about four million homes.
But the question is, how will OpenAI pay for such outsize ambitions, including for a $18 billion data-center venture.
OpenAI is tying its fate to a belief that companies and consumers will increase their spending on artificial intelligence at explosive rates for years to come, as the company is now on the hook to pay hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
9/11…131 percent of 2024 levels
9/10…108
9/9…77
9/8…93
9/7…137
9/6…80
9/5…106
9/4…117
—Apple shares fell some after the company unveiled a thinner “iPhone Air” model on Tuesday, its first new smartphone in years, a device it hopes will spur sales after struggling to roll out AI features.
The Air, which will cost $999, was the biggest reveal at Apple’s annual event, a new midrange device to replace the Plus models from prior years.
The ultrathin phone is a precursor to a foldable iPhone, which the company is expected to produce as soon as next year.
The iPhone 17 base model will continue to cost $799. For more storage the cheapest Pro model starts at $1,099.
Apple says the majority of iPhones shipped to the U.S. are now assembled in India, meaning they face no tariff. Yet Indian suppliers aren’t yet capable of delivering as many of the Pro models that U.S. consumers demand, and so most of those still come from China.
But battery life appears to be a challenge for the Air. Apple announced a new battery accessory that will attach to the Air to boost battery life, which then makes it not so thin.
—Postal traffic to the U.S. dropped more than 80% after the Trump administration ended the de minimis tariff exemption for low-cost imports, the United Nations postal agency said Saturday. The AP reports that 88 postal operators have told the UPU they’ve suspended some or all postal services to the U.S. until a solution is implemented with regard to U.S.-bound parcels valued at $800 or less, the previous limit for imported goods to avoid customs charges.
—President Trump on Truth Social:
“Amazing phenomenon – Any Country that relies on Windmills is DEAD. Their Energy Costs have gone through the roof, and their populations are angry. Windmills aren’t only killing the birds, they’re ‘killing’ lots of bad politicians who are losing their jobs because of them!”
—The Labor Day weekend marked the end of the summer season, which brought in $3.673 billion in movie receipts, compared with $3.677 billion last summer, according to Comscore. After a record-breaking Memorial Day weekend, there were high hopes that Hollywood could reach $4 billion in domestic sales for the season. But it fell short.
Horror films, however, generated $965,575,462 heading into the weekend, and with the $83 million from The Conjuring: Last Rites, raised the total to $1,048,575,462 for the 2025 domestic box office, Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian said.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Early Wednesday, Poland said it and its NATO allies had shot down numerous Russian drones in what it called an “act of aggression” as Russia launched aerial attacks on Ukraine. Warsaw’s Chopin Airport suspended flights for several hours, citing the closure of airspace due to military operations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on social media that “Last night the Polish airspace was violated by a large number of Russian drones. Those drones that posed a direct threat were shot down.” Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz thanked NATO Air Command and The Royal Netherlands Air and Space Force for supporting the action of neutralizing “more than 10 objects” that crossed into Polish airspace with F-35 fighter jets.
Tusk added: “We are dealing likely with a provocation on a large scale.”
Several European leaders said they believed Russia was intentionally escalating the war, and NATO was discussing the incident in a meeting. Leaders in the strategically located Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – the NATO members that are most nervous about Russian aggression – expressed deep concerns.
Polish airspace has been violated multiple times since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but there has been nothing on this scale either in Poland or in any other Western nation along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.
The incident occurred at a time of heightened tension, coinciding with large-scale Polish military exercises that started earlier this month.
Russia is also set to begin its annual strategic exercises on its western flank, including in its ally Belarus, which borders Poland.
President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
Last Sunday, Trump told reporters that he vowed to move ahead with a new round of sanctions against Russia. But then nothing.
And on Thursday, speaking to reporters, Trump said of the Russian drones passing into Poland, “Could have been a mistake. Could have been a mistake. But regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it’s going to come to an end.”
This is insane.
Prime Minister Tusk on Friday strongly rebuked Trump’s assessment, writing on social media that “we would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
—Tuesday, as a group of elderly Ukrainians lined up at a mobile post office to receive their pensions, a quarter-ton Russian glide bomb slammed into the heart of their village in eastern Ukraine. The blast killed at least 24 people and wounded over a dozen more in one of the deadliest strikes against civilians of the war so far.
“A brutally savage Russian airstrike with a bomb on the village of Yarova in Donetsk region. Directly on people. Ordinary civilians. At the moment when pensions were being issued,” President Zelensky wrote on social media. “A reaction from the U.S. is needed. A reaction from Europe is needed.”
Days earlier, Russia’s largest air raid of the Ukraine war killed four people and damaged a government building in Kyiv. Sites across the country were targeted by 810 drones and decoys and 13 missiles, according to Ukrainian air force officials who said they downed 747 drones and four missiles. “Hits from nine missiles and 54 drones were recorded at 33 locations across Ukraine.”
—Neighboring Moldova holds parliamentary elections, scheduled for Sept. 28, and the New York Times’ Steven Myers reported on Russia’s massive disinformation campaign, at a time when the Trump administration has slashed diplomatic and financial support for the country’s fight against Russian influence.
“A year ago, when the country last held elections, Biden administration officials pushed back against such campaigns, urging platforms like Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, to do more to identify trolls or inauthentic accounts. No more.”
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“President Trump keeps hoping Vladimir Putin will negotiate in good faith to end his Ukraine war, and Mr. Putin keeps giving signs that he’s a menace not to be trusted. This week the Russian said he might be willing to meet Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, if the parley is held in his preferred setting.
“ ‘Let him come to Moscow,’ Mr. Putin said. What an idea: Come in, Mr. Zelensky, welcome to the Kremlin, please sit down. How do you take your tea, one lump or two of polonium? Remember that Russia has made multiple attempts to assassinate the elected Ukrainian president throughout the war, and no doubt will continue to try.
“Or consider that Russia is suspected of jamming a plane last weekend that was carrying a senior European Union official on a tour of the continent’s eastern flank. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was flying to visit an ammunition factory in Bulgaria, which is a member of both the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, when the plane’s GPS navigation was jammed….
“ ‘Everything is still safe, but it’s more complicated,’ Ivar Vark, the CEO of Estonian Air Navigation Services, recently told us. An EU memo from May documented increased signal interference in Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, too. As a means of causing disruption, this Russian activity is ‘simple and cheap,’ the memo said, and it’s ‘likely to continue unless proportional counter measures are taken.’
“How much more evidence of Mr. Putin’s intentions does Mr. Trump need?”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal, part II…Thurs. p.m.
“President Trump thought he could negotiate peace in Ukraine with his friend Vladimir Putin, and perhaps it was worth a shot. Yet the Russian has offered nothing but brutal escalation for eight months, and now he is taunting Mr. Trump and NATO by flying drones into Poland. Your move, Mr. President.
“An estimated 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace on Tuesday night, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization allied assets from Patriots to F-16s scrambled to take down the projectiles. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called the drone foray ‘absolutely reckless’ and ‘not an isolated incident.’ That many incursions can’t be explained by incompetence or bad directions.
“Mr. Putin thinks he can get away with this provocation as he pummels Ukraine with hundreds of missiles and drones, and it’s a reasonable bet based on Mr. Trump’s record. Mr. Trump said recently that he is ‘not happy about the whole situation’ in Ukraine. But Mr. Trump hasn’t backed up his repeated warnings and deadlines, and Mr. Putin may figure if he can always count on another two weeks….
“The drone incursion is a reminder that placating Mr. Putin carries risks far beyond U.S. embarrassment. Mr. Putin is showing that his imperial project isn’t limited to Ukraine. He repeats propaganda about Nazi affiliation and ‘root causes’ that obliged him to attack Ukraine, and the Institute for the Study of War recently detailed how Russian officials tell a similar tale about Finland.
“A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would be a disaster for the world that nobody wants, but a limp U.S. response increases the odds of war. It’s a direct security risk to the U.S. that Mr. Putin thinks he can send drones into Poland, a U.S. treaty ally that hosts roughly 10,000 American troops.
“Mr. Trump on Wednesday mused on social media ‘What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!,’ and a President sounding like a sidewalk gawker isn’t encouraging. But Mr. Trump is nothing if not ideologically flexible and his revulsion at the human toll of the Ukraine war is clearly sincere.
“The President knows the pressure he can apply on Mr. Putin: More sanctions, more weapons for Ukraine and fewer restrictions on their use, and a reinforcement of NATO’s military power so it isn’t caught off guard by Russia’s probing. The drone parts now scattered all over Poland bear an old message, and it’s that weakness invites aggression.”
Israel/Gaza: Israel’s military carried out an attack inside Qatar’s capital city on Tuesday, which is more than 1,000 miles away, including “a precise [air] strike targeting the senior leadership of Hamas,” the Israeli Defense Forces announced on social media.
Targets inside Doha included Khalil al-Hayya, the top negotiator for Hamas. The IDF said it sought to kill those who “are directly responsible for the brutal October 7 massacre, and have been orchestrating and managing the war against the State of Israel.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote on social media: “Today’s action against the top terrorist chieftains of Hamas was a wholly independent Israeli operation. Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility.”
Netanyahu said the decision was taken Monday after a shooting attack in Jerusalem that killed six people and an attack on Israeli forces in Gaza that killed four soldiers.
Qatar’s top diplomat condemned the “cowardly Israeli attack,” which he said struck “residential buildings housing several members of the Political Bureau of Hamas.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described the strike as a “criminal act and a flagrant violation of international law” in a phone call with Qatar’s ruler.
Hamas then said its top leaders survived, without saying whether they had sustained injuries, but five lower-ranking Hamas members died, including the son of Khalil al-Hayya. A Qatari security personnel was also killed, the Hamas statement said. There was no proof offered that the top leaders had survived.
The U.S. knew about the strike in advance, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who said U.S. diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff passed along a warning to the Qataris once the White House was made aware of the strike. [Qatar says the bombs were already falling when the U.S. called.] President Trump was not informed by Netanyahu beforehand.
Trump then posted Wednesday afternoon on Truth Social:
“This morning, the Trump Administration was notified by the United States Military that Israel was attacking Hamas which, very unfortunately, was located in a section of Doha, the Capital of Qatar. This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me. Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace, does not advance Israeli or America’s goals. However, eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal. I immediately directed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to inform the Qataris of the impending attack, which he did, however, unfortunately, too late to stop the attack. I view Qatar as a strong Ally and friend of the U.S. and feel very badly about the location of the attack. I want ALL of the Hostages, and bodies of the dead, released, and this War to END, NOW! I also spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu after the attack. The Prime Minister told me that he wants to make Peace. I believe this unfortunate incident could serve as an opportunity for PEACE. I also spoke to the Emir and Prime Minister of Qatar, and thanked them for their support and friendship to our County. I assured them that such a thing will not happen again on their soil. I have directed Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to finalize the Defense Cooperation Agreement with Qatar. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
–Meanwhile, the Israeli military ordered residents of Gaza City to evacuate on Tuesday, signaling that it was moving ahead with its full-scale invasion of the largest city in northern Gaza.
The order will force hundreds of thousands of people to decide whether to risk staying in the city or to flee south to areas that are already overcrowded. Many of those areas are also in ruins.
The Israeli military has said that its operation in Gaza City would prevent Hamas fighters from regrouping and planning future attacks, and that it would extend into parts of the city that Israeli soldiers have not previously attacked or held during the war.
Israel also continued to take down all high-rise buildings in Gaza City, giving warnings beforehand to evacuate. And it said it would ramp up airstrikes on Gaza in a “mighty hurricane,” to serve as a last warning to Hamas that it will destroy the enclave unless fighters accept a demand from President Trump to free all hostages and surrender.
–As alluded to above, two Palestinian gunmen opened fire at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem, killing six people in what police described as “a terrorist attack,” one of the deadliest in the city in years. The gunmen were neutralized.
—Israel also carried out another round of heavy airstrikes in Yemen on Wednesday, days after Houthi rebels launched a drone attack that struck an Israeli airport. At least 35 people were killed and more than 130 were wounded, the Houthi-run health ministry said.
Iran: The regime paved over the final resting place for decades for some of the thousands killed in the mass executions that followed Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Now, Lot 41 at the sprawling Behesht-e Zahra cemetery in Tehran is becoming a parking lot, with their remains likely beneath asphalt.
“Most of the graves and gravestones of dissidents were desecrated, and the trees in the section were deliberately dried out,” said Shahin Nasiri, a lecturer at the University of Amsterdam who has researched Lot 41. “The decision to convert this section into a parking lot fits into this broader pattern and represents the final phase of the destruction process.”
China: The U.S. does not pursue “regime change or strangulation” of China, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said as his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, stressed that any attempt to contain, deter or interfere with China would fail.
The assurance and the warning came on Tuesday as the two men spoke via video in their first direct talks since taking office.
It was also less than a week after Beijing held a massive military parade showcasing advanced weapons and promoting its push for a multipolar order to counter “bullying.”
In discussions that the Defense Department described as “candid and constructive,” Hegseth “made clear that the United States does not seek conflict with China nor is it pursuing regime change or strangulation of [China].”
“At the same time, however, [Hegseth] forthrightly relayed that the U.S. has vital interests in the Asia-Pacific, the priority theatre, and will resolutely protect those interests,” the department said.
According to the Chinese defense ministry, Dong called on the two countries to revise “their understanding from a military strategic perspective.”
North Korea: A new era in North Korea’s missile program may be dawning, as analysts warn of an imminent test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads to the U.S. mainland.
Fresh from his appearance at China’s Victory Day parade in Beijing, Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the trial of a lighter, more robust solid-fuel ICBM engine, state media reported on Tuesday, touting the achievement as a “strategic” breakthrough.
Reportedly built with advanced carbon-fiber composites, the high-thrust engine “heralds a significant change in expanding and strengthening the nuclear strategic forces” of North Korea, Kim declared, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
He described the test as “a success assuming the most strategic nature in the recent modernization of defense technology.”
Pyongyang’s references to a ninth and “final” test point to the imminent debut of a new ICBM – possibly the Hwasong-20 – according to Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
Brazil: Former president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison after being found guilty of plotting a military coup.
A panel of five Supreme Court justices handed down the sentence just hours after they had convicted the former leader.
They ruled he was guilty of leading a conspiracy aimed at keeping him in power after he lost the 2022 election to his left-wing rival, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Four of the justices found him guilty while one voted to acquit him. Bolsonaro’s lawyers have called the sentence “absurdly excessive” and said that they would file “the appropriate appeals,” including to the full Supreme Court of 11 justices.
The Supreme Court panel also barred him from running for public office until 2033.
Reacting to the guilty verdict, President Trump said he found it “very surprising” and compared it to his own experience: “That’s very much like they tried to do with me. But they didn’t get away with it at all.” Oh brother.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Brazil’s Supreme Court had “unjustly ruled to imprison former President Jair Bolsonaro” and threatened to “respond accordingly to this witch hunt.”
Brazil’s foreign ministry reacted swiftly, posting on X that “threats like the one made today by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement that attacks a Brazilian authority and ignores the facts and the compelling evidence on record, will not intimidate our democracy.”
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings…
Gallup: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 56% disapprove. 35% of independents approve (Aug. 1-20).
Rasmussen: 48% approve, 51% disapprove (Sept. 12). Unchanged from the prior week again.
A new NBC News survey, conducted Aug. 13-Sept. 1, has President Trump with a 43% approval rating, 57% disapproval.
Trump’s weakest ratings are on economic matters, with 39% approving of his handling of inflation and 41% approving of his handling of trade and tariffs. On immigration-border security, 47% approve.
—In the New York City mayoral race, a Siena Research/NY Times poll released Tuesday had Zohran Mamdani leading ex-governor Andrew Cuomo 48-44 – but this is only if Mayor Eric Adams and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa drop out and are able to get their names off the ballot.
And Adams and Sliwa, thus far, are adamant they will not drop out, though in the case of the mayor there is still a chance he’ll get a cushy position in the Trump administration that he can’t pass up.
In a four-way race, Mamdani gets 46% to Cuomo’s 24%, with Sliwa at 15% and Adams just 9%.
There was a second poll, the new Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey, which found Mamdani had a 15-point led in a four-way ace at 43%, Cuomo 28%, Sliwa 10% and Adams 7%.
In a one-one matchup, Mamdani leads Cuomo 47% to 40%.
But for those looking for Adams and Sliwa to still drop out, despite their denials, as of Tuesday, they were certified to be on the ballot and only have until Sept. 16 to attempt to have their names removed because the ballots get printed that day.
—Editorial / Washington Post
“Euphemisms distort thought, and no entities are more adept at producing euphemisms than governments. President Donald Trump’s rebranding on Friday of the Department of Defense as the Department of War is a worthy blow against government euphemism. Perhaps it can be followed by clearer thinking about the military’s role at home and abroad.
“President George Washington created the War Department as a Cabinet-level agency in 1789 to oversee the Army. It was joined by a Cabinet-level Navy Department in 1798. In 1947, the service branches were merged under the National Military Establishment, headed by a defense secretary. Two years later, Congress created the Defense Department, headquartered in the Pentagon.
“Trump’s executive order cannot undo the legislation enacted in 1949, but it authorizes ‘Department of War’ for use in labels and communications. Trump also proposes that Congress make the change official, and the National Defense Authorization Act (which normally passes in December) would be a natural vehicle.
“It is more delicate to say that the Pentagon’s mission is defense than war. But the former depends on the latter. The extent to which the Pentagon can defend U.S. interests around the world is tied to the expectation that the United States can fight and win wars. That expectation is what shapes the calculations of rival states. As Trump said Friday afternoon in the Oval Office: ‘I’m going to let these people go back to the Department of War and figure out how to maintain peace.’
“Concepts such as ‘defense’ and ‘security’ have a tendency for bureaucratic mission creep. The Biden administration’s 2022 National Defense Strategy mentioned ‘climate’ 19 times. Climate change is a problem, but fighting it is not the military’s job. Nor is nation-building.
“Clarifying that the Pentagon is in the business of war-fighting could have other salutary effects. Congress has not declared war as the Constitution contemplated since World War II, even as U.S. troops have fought and died in wars large and small around the world. Renaming the Pentagon won’t cause Congress to suddenly change its ways, but at least it is a reminder that the powers the Pentagon exercises are subject to legislative oversight….
“Trump’s opponents complain about the aggressive connotations of the new name. But the United States is protected by the most lethal and vigilant fighting force ever assembled, no matter what it’s called. The new name could prompt more focused debate about how to use it.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The name change is supposed to echo the era when America was victorious. ‘We won World War I, and we won World War II, not with the Department of Defense, but with a War Department,’ (Sec. Pete) Hegseth said recently. ‘We’re not just defense, we’re offense.’ In other words, no more Vietnams, Iraqs or Afghanistans. But the obvious point is that the U.S. won the terrible conflicts of the 20th century because it built the most fearsome military power and had the political will to use it.
“Neither are in abundant supply today, despite Mr. Trump’s assertions and his B-2 bomber fly-bys at diplomatic summits. The U.S. spent 16.9% of its economy on defense in 1952 during the Korean War and north of 8% during Vietnam. But after the explosion of government domestic spending on healthcare, retirement, education, and much more, the Pentagon now gets a mere 3% of GDP. Mr. Trump’s one-time cash infusion in his reconciliation bill this year can’t bend this downward trajectory.
“ ‘The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago,’ the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy said last year. ‘The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today.’
“The commission said the U.S. needs a military that’s capable of fighting in more than one theater at once. Coordination among sophisticated adversaries – China, Russia, Iran, North Korea – means a future war might not be quick or confined to a single continent.
“But leaks to the press suggest Mr. Trump’s not so new War Department is about to roll out a strategy that won’t come close to that standard. It might put controlling the southern border ahead of deterring China. Whether Mr. Trump truly believes in a broad American retreat from the world isn’t clear, but his Pentagon is presiding over one.
“Listen to what retired Air Force four-star Gen. Mark Kelly said during a Friday event at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. ‘We’re facing an apex adversary now, today,’ he said of China. But the Air Force is ‘doing so with half the combat power that we had 35 to 40 years ago.’ The fleet, Gen. Kelly added, is ‘twice as old and operating at twice the op [operational] tempo, flown by aviators getting half the training sorties, at half the platform readiness rates.’
“This erosion of hard military power is the central problem at the Pentagon. Rename the place, or don’t. But talking up a War Department, without making sure it’s ready to win a war, is what one of Mr. Trump’s predecessors would have called speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. And that’s how wars are lost.”
—The U.S. sent 10 F-35s to Puerto Rico to fight drug trafficking in the Caribbean, as Fox News, among others, reported.
“It looks to me like the U.S. military is going to war,” said Fox’s longtime Pentagon correspondent Jennifer Griffin, writing last Friday on social media. After all, she continued, “The F35s being sent to Puerto Rico are usually used for large bombing missions like the targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities – a 5th generation supersonic fighter jet known for its lethality.” And there are “8 US Navy destroyers in the Caribbean near Venezuela, [which] is a first.”
Regarding the U.S. attack on the suspected drug trafficking boat that killed eleven, Vice President Vance and Sen. Rand Paul traded barbs on social media.
Vance: “Killing cartel members who poison our fellow citizens is the highest and best use of our military.”
Sen. Paul replied: “What a despicable and thoughtless sentiment it is to glorify killing someone without a trial.”
—As reported by the Washington Post’s Dan Lamothe:
“The alumni association at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point has canceled an award ceremony for actor and veterans advocate Tom Hanks, citing a desire for the Army service academy to focus on preparing future officers for war after several political controversies involving the Trump administration shook the institution this year.
“Retired Army Col. Mark Bieger, president and chief executive officer of the West Point Association of Graduates, disclosed the decision in an email to faculty circulated Friday. A copy of Bieger’s message was reviewed and verified by The Washington Post.
“Hanks, 69, was to receive the prestigious Sylvanus Thayer Award, which recognizes an ‘outstanding citizen’ who did not attend West Point and has a distinguished record of service that exemplifies the academy’s ideals: ‘Duty, Honor, Country.’ A ceremony and parade were scheduled for Sept. 25….
“ ‘This decision allows the Academy to continue its focus on its core mission of preparing cadets to lead, fight, and win as officers in the world’s most lethal force, the United States Army,’ wrote Bieger, who earned a Silver Star for combat valor in Iraq….
“The decision marks a dramatic shift from June, when the association announced Hanks as its 2025 Thayer recipient. The alumni group cited his work acting in several movies portraying U.S. service members, including ‘Saving Private Ryan’… It also credited his producing of ‘Band of Brothers’ and ‘The Pacific,’ both World War II-themed miniseries, and his extensive advocacy for veterans.”
President Trump posted on Truth Social: “Important move! We don’t’ need destructive, WOKE recipients getting our cherished American Awards!!!”
—Joseph Epstein / Wall Street Journal…posted on their site shortly after I posted my last WIR:
“We’ve all just got through a three-day weekend without Donald Trump. I assume he spent the better part of it golfing and with his family. I don’t know about you, but I found it pleasing to take a little break from the endless news conferences, interviews and televised cabinet meetings. I don’t suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, but even without it, I’ve had more than my fill of his rattling on about his accomplishments, insulting his enemies, and threatening the rest of the world with tariffs.
“No president in recent memory has been so constantly before us, so in our faces, as it were, as Mr. Trump. The man has extraordinary energy. The problem is his personality, which, to put it gently, isn’t everybody’s idea of a good time. An even greater problem is the constant intrusion of politics into all our lives that the Trump presidency has brought about.
“Unless you have actual skin in the game, politics is a spectator sport that can soon grow dreary and wearying. The English philosopher Michael Oakeshott (1901-90) felt that ‘politics is an uninteresting form of activity to anyone who has no desire to rule others.’ He also believed that ‘politics are an inferior form of human activity,’ and that politics ‘were nothing more than a struggle for power.’ In his ‘Notebooks: 1922-86,’ Oakeshott wrote: ‘A general interest and preoccupation with politics is the surest sign of a general decay in a society.’ We in the U.S. have over the past decade been living with this political preoccupation.
“What offended Oakeshott about politics was its rivaling claimants’ promise of perfection, the arguments coming down to dueling virtues, ‘with one side intent on crushing the other.’ Politics provides promises about the future. Oakeshott preferred life in the present. For him the role of government should be ‘to keep its subjects at peace with one another in the activities in which they have chosen to seek their happiness.’ He added: ‘Politics is the art of living together & of being ‘just’ to one another – not of imposing a way of life, but of organizing a common life.’ Our two political parties, of course, hold with none of this, each asserting that it and it alone knows the road to perfection, holds the key to the good life.
“The pledge to Make America Great Again is the most recent – and historically perhaps the most insistent – political promise. So ubiquitous has its progenitor become in our public life that his Labor Day weekend away sparked a rumor that he had died. So pervasive has his contentious presence as president become that scarcely any pause from politics has been permitted the nation, with the result that our public life has become darkened by rivalrousness (sic), agitation and anger.
“Love him or loathe him, no one, it seems can be neutral about Mr. Trump. He is the personification of political divisiveness. I like many of his policies – his support of Israel, his fight against urban crime, his wanting to end the Russia-Ukraine War – while disliking his vanity, braggadocio and constant stream of insults. Next year he’ll be 80, so there isn’t much chance of these personal qualities changing. Mr. Trump’s presidency will conclude, but our national preoccupation with politics isn’t likely to end even after his departure from office.”
With the above in mind, consider the following from a Wall Street Journal editorial following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s contentious Senate hearing a week ago Thursday.
“Mr. Kennedy came under fire at Thursday’s hearing from both Democrats and Republicans over his moves to undermine vaccines. ‘In your confirmation hearings, you promised to uphold the highest standards for vaccines,’ Wyoming GOP Sen. John Barrasso said. ‘Since then, I’ve grown deeply concerned.’ Mr. Kennedy struggled to defend his inconsistencies.
“Vice President JD Vance tried to ride to Mr. Kennedy’s defense. ‘When I see all these senators trying to lecture and ‘gotcha’ Bobby Kennedy today,’ Mr. Vance wrote on social media, ‘all I can think is: You all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal ‘therapies’ for children, mutilating our kids and enriching big pharma. You’re full of shit and everyone knows it.’ Classy, as ever, Mr. Vice President.
“None of this is true of Dr. Cassidy, Dr. Barrasso, and other Senators, and the Vice President knows it. Mr. Vance is trying to rally Republicans to RFK’s side by framing this dispute in a polarized partisan framework, either/or, us/them. That may serve his political purposes as he courts RFK’s supporters with 2028 in mind, but it won’t win over anyone paying attention to the health secretary’s contradictions as he attacks life-saving vaccines.”
Last Friday, President Trump expressed reservations about Florida moving to eliminate school vaccine mandates, calling it a “very tough position” and arguing some vaccines are uncontroversial.
“I think we have to be very careful. You have some vaccines that are so amazing,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, citing the polio vaccine and the Covid-19 vaccine, which was developed during his first term.
“You have some vaccines that are so incredible. I think you have to be very careful when you say some people don’t have to be vaccinated,” Trump continued. “It’s a very tough position. Just initially I heard about it yesterday, and it’s a tough stance.
“Look, you have vaccines that work. They just pure and simple work. They’re not controversial at all, and I think those vaccines should be used, otherwise some people are going to catch it, and they endanger other people,” Trump added. “And when you don’t have controversy at all, I think people should take it.”
I watched Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo on Jake Tapper’s Sunday show and let’s just say, Ladapo was less than impressive in his defense of his new school policy.
—Lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein’s estate handed Congress a copy of the birthday book put together for the financier’s 50th birthday, which includes a letter with President Trump’s signature that he has said doesn’t exist.
Monday, House Oversight Committee members confirmed that they received a copy of the birthday book including the letter bearing Trump’s signature and a second letter that references Trump with a crude joke about a woman from another Epstein associate.
The Wall Street Journal, which first reported on the book and the letter bearing Trump’s name back in July, released a picture of the letter, typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, with the signature a squiggly “Donald” below the waist.
Trump denies writing the letter or drawing the picture and is calling the letter a “dead issue.”
—Monday, the Supreme Court lifted a judge’s limit on Los Angeles-area immigration stops based on a person speaking Spanish or working in a certain profession.
The Trump administration urged the high court for the emergency intervention, calling the order a “straitjacket” on enforcement efforts in an epicenter of the president’s immigration crackdown.
The ruling appeared to fall along the court’s 6-3 ideological lines, though the justices are not required to publicly disclose their votes in emergency orders. The one-paragraph order contained no explanation, as is typical.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, writing a dissent, said her colleagues’ decision is “unconscionably irreconcilable with our Nation’s constitutional guarantees.”
“That decision is yet another grave misuse of our emergency docket,” Sotomayor wrote. “We should not have to live in a country where the Government can seize anyone who looks Latino, speaks Spanish, and appears to work in a low wage job. Rather than stand idly by while our constitutional freedoms are lost, I dissent.”
—We hit the normal peak in the hurricane season this week and no activity. The Atlantic may stay quiet for the next 10 days, too.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told USA TODAY “dry and dusty air will keep the Atlantic unusually quiet,” as hurricanes don’t form easily when tropical air is dry and dusty, forecasters say.
You need a healthy enough tropical wave coming off Africa that can survive the otherwise hostile environmental conditions, which also include wind shear.
But with water temperatures in the Gulf running above the historical average, “any cluster of showers and thunderstorms that organize in the Gulf and along the southern Atlantic coast could evolve into a tropical storm, especially from mid- to late September,” AccuWeather forecasters warn.
“The dry air and Saharan dust should start to clear out of the Atlantic main development region by this coming weekend,” according to DaSilva. “Atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tropical development are expected to return in the second half of the month.”
Forecasters from Colorado State University were also more bullish on the prospects of storms later this month: In its two-week forecast for Sept. 3-16, Colorado State University forecasters predicted that activity will pick up over the next couple of weeks.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $3684…another record high…Silver hit $42.70 today, a 14-year high.
Oil $62.56
Bitcoin: $116,721…up $5,000 on the week… [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.18; Diesel: $3.70 [$3.24 – $3.63 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 9/8-9/12
Dow Jones +0.9% [45834]
S&P 500 +1.6% [6584]
S&P MidCap -0.4%
Russell 2000 +0.3%
Nasdaq +2.0% [22141]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-9/12/25
Dow Jones +7.7%
S&P 500 +12.0%
S&P MidCap +5.2%
Russell 2000 +7.5%
Nasdaq +14.7%
Bulls 54.7
Bears 17.0
Hang in there.
Remember 9/11.
Brian Trumbore
