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Edition 1,383
It’s a big week coming up as President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with optimism coming from the U.S., and not so much, as of today, from the other side.
And with President Trump levying his harshest sanctions yet against Russia this week, we’ll see what happens on the war front in the coming days, Russia continuing to pound away at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of winter.
The Senate needs to pass its own tough Russian sanctions legislation to add to the president’s moves, the bill having long received substantial bi-partisan support.
And we learned this afternoon that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its strike group is being sent to the waters off South America in the latest escalation and buildup of military forces in the region.
I really think we should be focusing our attention elsewhere, and, you know, it would kind of be nice to see a PSA (public service announcement) on not doing drugs! President Trump, cut the spot yourself and include Melania, it would be effective.
Nancy Reagan from long ago:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pOAfoxDerh0
Meanwhile, the stock market marches ever higher…and so we move on….
—
Wall Street and the Economy
The U.S. and China are holding trade talks this weekend in Malaysia, ahead of the scheduled meeting next Thursday between Presidents Trump and Xi.
Trump told reporters this week, “I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic trade deal with China.”
A day later, Trump told reporters, “Well make a deal on, I think, everything. I think we’re going to make a deal on soybeans and the farmers. I think we’re going to make a deal on maybe even nuclear [weapons],” he said. No way on this last bit, and I have no idea where it’s coming from.
Trump said China’s move to impose export controls on rare earth minerals was “the least of it,” adding “tariffs are much more powerful than the rare earth.”
The two leaders last met face-to-face in 2019.
“I think we’re going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy,” Trump said Thursday.
It all really depends on what agreements are reached over the weekend in Malaysia, first.
And today, the U.S. Office of the Trade Representative launched a section 301/302 investigation into whether China has upheld its trade commitments from 2019 (Phase One). So it’s not all going to be lollipops and rainbows in South Korea, one would think.
And late Thursday evening, President Trump posted the following on Truth Social:
“The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs. The ad was for $75,000,000. They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”
The ad uses audio from a 1987 radio address in which President Reagan denounced tariffs as destructive for the economy. But it was somewhat taken out of context, as Reagan starts out by addressing the tariffs he needed to levy on Japan at the time. The Reagan Library corrected the record.
—
Friday, we finally received some critical government economic data, amidst the shutdown…the long-awaited consumer price report for September…and it was better than expected across the board, up 0.3% on headline, 3.0% year-over-year, and ex-food and energy, the key, 0.2% and 3.0%.
The headline 3.0% was a tick higher than the prior month; the core figure of 3.0% was a tick lower.
But both are still 3.00%, not the Fed’s targeted 2.00%. No problem for now, however, as Wall Street celebrated that we didn’t receive a negative surprise.
The only reason the government released the CPI report was because of a Nov. 1 deadline for the Social Security Administration to publish its annual adjustment to benefits, which accounts for changes in the cost-of-living.
And the cost-of-living increase will go up by 2.8% in 2026, which translates to an average increase of more than $56 for retirees every month, agency officials said Friday. The benefits increase for nearly 71 million Social Security recipients will go into effect beginning in January.
[The government is already saying the October CPI report, due to be published on Nov. 13, probably won’t be, even if the government reopens by then, because no data collection for the report has been taking place.]
All this leads into next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
A Reuters poll of economists has all but two, 115 of 117, predicting the Fed would lower the funds rate by a quarter point on October 29. That majority falls to 71% for another cut in December, the poll conducted Oct. 15-21.
But the government shutdown continues to delay key official data on employment. That said, we know that 97,000 federal jobs have been eliminated as of August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. And employment in the tech sector is down 90,000 from its peak in 2023, calculates Joseph Poliltano of Apricitas Economics. Tech jobs grew by 300,000 during the post-Covid boom in 2022, and the sector contributed about 150,000 positions a year before the pandemic.
In other data, existing-home sales for September rose 1.5% over August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, basically in line with expectations; up 4.1% from a year ago. Falling mortgage rates are helping.
The median existing-home sales price rose 2.1% year-over-year to $415,200.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the third quarter is at 3.9%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.19%, lowest in more than a year and versus 6.85% at year end. It’s helping.
As for the government shutdown, there is no sign of it ending. Currently, some 700,000 civilian federal workers have been furloughed without pay, with another million or so working without pay. Military members got paid last week using unspent research funds, which some have called illegal. The Coast Guard plus some 70,000 law enforcement officers are also getting paid similarly.
Many federal workers got a partial paycheck on Oct. 10 and could receive no pay at all this Friday. Air-traffic controllers, who must report to work, will miss their first full paycheck later this month.
And SNAP benefits (food stamps) are also due to end soon, and the stories surrounding that potentiality will hurt both Republicans and Democrats.
And now President Trump is embarking on an almost weeklong trip to Asia. Since his input is likely a necessary ingredient for a breakthrough in shutdown negotiations, his departure could mean most of the government remains closed for at least the next week.
But lawmakers face their next critical date on the shutdown on Nov. 1, the start of open enrollment in most states for health plans offered under the Affordable Care Act. Expiring subsidies that covered the cost of those plans for millions of Americans is a key sticking point with the funding bill.
There has been some talk in the Senate among Republicans of changing the filibuster to push a government funding bill over the finish line.
Senate rules require 60 votes to advance most legislation, giving Democrats the power to block the House-passed continuing resolution despite their minority status. But Senate Republican leadership could propose a rule change to reduce the threshold to a simple majority, ensuring that Democratic votes aren’t needed to reopen the government.
But, touching the filibuster would likely be a drastic move and establish a new precedent for any future battles over passing government funding. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters earlier this week that getting rid of the filibuster to reopen government would be a “bad idea.”
Europe and Asia
We had flash PMI readings for October in the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global/Hamburg Commercial Bank.
The composite reading for the EA20 was 52.2 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), a 17-month high. Manufacturing was 50.0, services 52.6, a 14-mo. high.
Germany: manufacturing 49.6; services 54.5, a 29-mo. high.
France: mfg. 48.3; services 47.1, an 8-mo. low.
UK: mfg. 49.6, 12-mo. high; services 51.1.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:
“France is increasingly becoming a drag on the eurozone economy. While the economic situation in Germany brightened significantly in October, the rate of contraction has accelerated for two months in a row in France. As a result, economic growth in the eurozone, even though accelerating a bit, has been much weaker than it otherwise could have been. Uncertainty about whether the current government under Sebastien Lecornu can remain in power for much longer in view of the disputes over the 2026 budget is causing unease and contributing significantly to the weak economic situation in France. As an important buyer of products and services from other eurozone countries, France’s weakness contributes to the fragility of the recovery in the rest of the eurozone.
Turning to Asia…China’s GDP for the third quarter was 4.8% vs. 5.2% in Q2, slightly exceeding expectations. The growth in the first three quarters laid a “solid foundation” for achieving the full-year growth goal of around 5%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The latest September data showed weakness in retail sales and fixed-asset investment, but an unexpected uptick in industrial output, which expanded 6.5%, exceeded all forecasts.
Retail sales were up just 3.0% year-over-year, and fixed-asset investment fell 0.5%, which as a longtime follower of this statistic is rather shocking in a non-pandemic environment for China.
The September unemployment rate was 5.2%.
China released its latest five-year plan, as part of the Communist Party’s Central Committee’s Plenum – held once every five years – and it prioritizes “significant” strikes in economic, scientific and technological strength, national defense, and international influence for 2026 to 2030, the real details to follow at a legislative meeting in March.
Economists have been expecting Beijing to take more drastic steps to rebalance its economy toward consumption and away from exports. The communique mentioned boosting domestic demand and enhancing people’s well-being, but that focus was secondary to the technology goals.
According to state-run news agency Xinhua, President Xi stressed the country needed to stick to its strategy of “focusing on doing its own work” and seizing the initiative amid an uncertain external environment, Xi’s comments published Friday, the day after the conclusion of the plenum.
But they were actually from a symposium back in August, just published now, where Xi called on the country to “closely monitor and accurately assess the international situation, actively recognize, respond to and pursue changes, and firmly hold the strategic initiative,” Xinhua reported.
The August meeting was to get input from outside figures for the drafting of the five-year plan.
Japan’s exports in September rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking the strongest growth since February, supported by a weaker yen and a recently signed trade deal with Washington that eased tariffs on Japanese goods. Shipments to the U.S., however, fell for a sixth consecutive month amid weaker demand for autos, chip-making equipment, and motors.
September inflation in Japan rose 2.9% from a year ago, 3.0% ex-food and energy, down from 3.3% the month prior.
And today we had flash PMI readings for October…manufacturing 48.3, services 52.4.
Meanwhile, Japan’s parliament elected ultraconservative Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first female prime minister Tuesday, a day after her struggling party struck a coalition deal with a new partner expected to pull her governing bloc further to the right.
Street Bytes
–The market had an up week on optimism over trade talks between the U.S. and China, and then today’s CPI report, with all three major averages hitting new highs Friday.
The Dow Jones rose 2.2% to 47207, the S&P 500 1.9% and Nasdaq 2.3%.
Apple shares hit an all-time high early in the week as the new iPhone 17 is winning over consumers, with sales outstripping the iPhone series by 14% during the first 10 days of availability in China and the U.S., according to Counterpoint Research data published on Monday. Apple’s market cap at noon today was $3.911 trillion.
Huge week for earnings coming up…Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon, and others.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.76% 2-yr. 3.48% 10-yr. 4.00% 30-yr. 4.59%
Treasuries were virtually unchanged on the week, with the 10-year, which got down to 3.95% intraday, ending where it was last Friday.
—Crude oil surged Thursday following the announcement of sanctions on key Russian oil companies. The U.S. has banned state-owned giants Rosneft and Lukoil, in a move aimed at increasing pressure on the Kremlin over Moscow’s lack of commitment to peace in Ukraine.
Rosneft, led by Putin ally Igor Sechin, and Lukoil together account for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports, about 2.2 million barrels per day, with oil and gas revenues making up roughly a quarter of the federal budget. After the sanctions, Trump said he would press major buyers, planning to discuss Russian oil imports with Chinese President Xi next week, following his announcement that India would reduce its purchases. EU member states have approved their 19th sanctions package against Russia, including a ban on Russian LNG imports.
West Texas Intermediate finished the week at $61.52, up $4 from last week.
—Gold hit a record high of $4,382 on Monday and then suffered its biggest drop since 2013, Tuesday, falling over 5%, the decline coming as profit-taking accelerated and the U.S. dollar strengthened, while safe-haven demand eased amid improving global sentiment (at least for 24 hours).
But gold stabilized the rest of the week and was only down about $100 vs. last Friday.
–A glitch with an obscure Amazon database disrupted life for millions of people across the U.S. as core internet services failed to function for an array of companies.
Alexa devices couldn’t hear. Corporate Slack messages wouldn’t post. Students couldn’t turn in assignments of access materials from courses. Financial trades were impossible on certain platforms. Users of Zoom, Venmo, Instacart and a host of other services faced prolonged outages that rippled through homes and businesses.
Financial services companies reporting issues included Fidelity, Robinhood Markets, as well as Venmo. Passengers flying with United Airlines reported problems accessing United’s website and app early in the day.
The trouble started a few hours after midnight on the East Coast.
A minor update to what’s called the Domain Name System – the kind of software tweak that happens millions of times a day on the internet – sent the well-oiled machine that underpins the modern web careening toward a crash.
DNS acts as kind of a telephone directory for the internet, instructing machines on how to find each other. But the faulty update gave the wrong information for DynamoDB, an Amazon Web Services product that has become one of the world’s most important databases.
Suddenly, machines on the East Coast that tried to process trillions of requests were getting the internet’s equivalent of a wrong number.
According to the Wall Street Journal, at 2 a.m. on Monday morning, the systems that help Amazon sort packages onto trucks and guide drivers on the road went down.
By 3 a.m., the outage’s blast radius had spread far beyond Amazon, cascading across the internet, delaying more than 4,000 flights, knocking out news websites such as the Journal, and extending into everyday life.
It ended up being one of the most prolonged daily outages for Amazon Web Services, and offered a reminder of the fragility of global connectivity, which has gone dark a number of times in recent years after what were supposed to be minor software updates. By late afternoon Monday, Amazon said it had restored much of the service.
Amazon controls about a third of the public cloud-computing market, the core infrastructure of the modern internet.
The snafu could end up costing businesses billions of dollars in lost sales and ripple through supply chains with disruptions, the Journal reported. A CrowdStrike disruption in 2024 caused $5.4 billion in losses for Fortune 500 companies, it said.
Separately, Amazon’s U.S. work force has more than tripled since 2018 to almost 1.2 million. But interviews and a cache of internal strategy documents viewed by the New York Times reveal that Amazon executives believe the company is on the cusp of its next big workplace shift: replacing more than half a million jobs with robots.
Executives told Amazon’s board last year that they hoped robotic automation would allow the company to continue to avoid adding to its U.S. work force in the coming years, even though they expect to sell twice as many products by 2033. That would translate to more than 600,000 people whom Amazon didn’t need to hire.
Amazon said in a statement that the documents viewed by The Times were incomplete and did not represent the company’s overall hiring strategy. A spokeswoman for Amazon said the documents reflected the viewpoint of one group inside the company and noted that Amazon planned to hire 250,000 people for the coming holiday season, though the company declined to say how many of those roles would be permanent.
—Tesla profits fell in the third quarter on record vehicle sales, despite reversing the steep declines that plagued the EV maker in the first half of the year.
Net income fell 37%, even as American shoppers raced to buy electric vehicles before a $7,500 federal tax credit expired last month.
The EV-maker’s total revenue grew 12% after a burst in automotive sales.
Adjusted earnings were 50 cents a share in the period, down 31% from a year ago, with analysts expecting 54 cents on average.
The results, which extended a string of four straight quarters of weaker-than-expected profit, show the company isn’t immune to the rising costs buffeting the auto industry as President Trump radically overhauls U.S. policy. Tesla’s operating expenses soared 50% to $3.4 billion in the quarter, and it now estimates the impact of U.S. tariffs was $400 million in the period.
CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly outlined a future built around AI, robots and self-driving technology – a vision that has led investors to bid up the stock. But questions are growing over the timeline to develop these businesses and the costs associated with building them out, and Tesla offered few answers in its latest report.
Musk expects Tesla’s robotaxi business, which launched in Austin in June, to expand to as many as 10 metropolitan areas by the end of the year if the company receives the necessary approvals. He also said the company would remove most human safety operators from robotaxis in Austin later this year. It’s not clear how many of the vehicles are currently operating there after the EV maker launched with about 10 to 20 vehicles.
Musk spent a significant portion of the earnings call talking about Tesla’s upcoming humanoid robot product Optimus, which he believes has the potential to be the “biggest product of all time” but “incredibly difficult to bring to market.”
The company said manufacturing lines are being installed to make the robot, with the aim of bringing it to production by the end of next year.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja acknowledged that competition and tariffs represent obstacles for the company.
The company reiterated language from the previous quarter that it’s “difficult to measure” how shifting global trade and fiscal policies would impact its businesses and operations. It sees results hinging on the broader economic environment as well as its speed in accelerating autonomy efforts and ramping up production for key products.
But Musk also referred to Optimus in his appeal to investors to pass his pay package that would give him more voting control of Tesla. He said he doesn’t want to build a “robot army” if he can be ousted in the future.
Musk spent the end of the call pleading with investors to ratify his upcoming $1 trillion pay package and blasting the shareholder advisory firms that have come out against the plan.
“I just think that there needs to be enough voting control to give a strong influence,” Musk said, interrupting his CFO at the tail end of a 75-minute call. “But not so much that I can’t be fired if I go insane.”
The shareholder vote is Nov. 6 at Tesla’s annual meeting.
—Netflix stock fell 10% after the video streaming giant reported third-quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates.
Netflix reported adjusted earnings of $5.87 a share on revenue of $11.51 billion, with the Street at EPS of $6.96 a share on revenue of $11.51bn.
In the same period last year, Netflix reported earnings of $5.40 on revenue of $9.83 billion.
Netflix said in its earnings release that a continuing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities negatively impacted financial results in the quarter. But membership growth, pricing adjustments, and increased advertising spend helped improve Q3 growth.
The company also said it expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow 17% from the previous year, which is just above Street estimates of 16% growth.
Netflix no longer reports its subscriber numbers, but the company said it hit its highest quarterly view share ever in the U.S. and UK, which has grown 15% and 22%, respectively, since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The company has shifted its focus to bringing on new content, like live events, family games, video podcasts, and of course, Netflix originals, to help keep growth accelerating. So far, that seems to be working.
“‘Our goal is both simple and ambitious: to entertain the world,” Netflix said in the earnings release. ‘We achieve this by offering a diverse selection of series, films, and games that our members love. This in turn fuels engagement, and when people love what they watch and play, they stick around longer (retention), recommend Netflix to others (acquisition), and place a higher value on our service.”
The company also pointed to its coming content slate that could help retain and acquire customers, including Frankenstein, the live Christmas NFL games, and the final season of Stranger Things.
But there’s no shortage of competition in fellow streamers like Paramount+, HBO Max, Disney+, Peacock, and more. Alphabet’s YouTube continues to hold the top spot for total TV streaming time just ahead of Netflix, according to research done by Nielsen.
—Southwest Airlines soared past expectations on Wednesday, reporting record third-quarter revenue and profit that were both higher than Wall Street’s and its own projections.
The carrier reported adjusted earnings of 11 cents a share on revenue of $6.95 billion.
For the fourth quarter, Southwest said it expects to post “all-time quarterly record operating revenues.”
Analysts had expected an adjusted loss of 4 cents a share on revenue of $6.92 billion. For the full year, Wall Street is looking for adjusted earnings of 94 cents a share on revenue of $28.1 billion.
CEO Bob Jordan said that Southwest is making the “most significant transformation” in its history, including selling assigned and extra legroom seating for travel beginning Jan. 27, 2026, and that the results show a profitable quarter, with better-than-expected unit revenue and unit costs. “While early, indicators for our new assigned and extra legroom seating products are in line with expectations. We are encouraged by our momentum and confident in our direction,” he said.
The carrier has retrofitted more than 400 aircraft with extra-legroom seating.
In April, Southwest cut about 1,750 jobs, about 15% of its corporate workforce, in its first-ever involuntary layoffs, as it aimed to catch up to its airline peers. Management said the reductions were aimed at saving $210 million this year and $300 million in 2026.
—American Airlines Group Inc. on Thursday reported a loss of $114 million in its third quarter. On a per-share basis, the company said it had a loss of 17 cents, which was better than consensus for a loss of 27 cents.
AAL posted revenue of $13.69 billion in the period, also topping Street forecasts.
For the current quarter ending in December, American expects its per-share earnings to range from 45 cents to 75 cents.
The company expects full-year earnings in the range of 65 cents to 95 cents per share.
AAL’s shares surged after the news.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
10/23…122 percent of 2024
10/22…105
10/21…78
10/20…85
10/19…133
10/18…81
10/17…103
10/16…122
—General Motors shares soared 15% Tuesday after the automaker reported earnings that beat expectations while GM said it anticipates a smaller impact from tariffs and is boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast.
The company reduced its expectations for the full year’s gross impact from tariffs to a range of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion. Its previous guidance was $4 billion to $5 billion. GM anticipates its tariff mitigation actions will offset about 35% of the impact due to a lower tariff base.
Last Friday, President Trump gave domestic automakers additional relief from tariffs on auto parts, extending what was supposed to have been a short-term rebate until 2030.
CEO Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders that “GM is very well positioned as we invest to increase our already significant domestic sourcing and manufacturing footprint.”
GM previously announced $4 billion in capital investments to onshore production at plants in Tennessee, Kansas, and Michigan over the next two years. Barra said that once those investments are in place, the company plans to make more than 2 million vehicles per year in the U.S.
The automaker is also investing nearly $1 billion to build a new generation of advanced, fuel-efficient V8 engines in New York.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, GM earned $1.33 billion, or $1.35 per share. A year earlier the automaker earned $3.06 billion, or $2.68 per share. Adjusted earnings of $2.80 per share easily beat consensus of $2.28 per share, with revenue totaling $48.59 billion, topping Wall Street’s estimate of $44.27 billion.
GM now foresees full-year adjusted earnings between $9.75 and $10.50 per share. Its prior outlook was for $8.25 to $10 per share. The Street predicts full-year earnings of $9.46 per share.
Barra also said Tuesday that GM is reassessing its electric vehicle capacity and manufacturing footprint.
The announcement comes a week after GM said that it would record a negative impact of $1.6 billion in the third quarter after tax incentives for EVs were slashed by the U.S. and rules governing emissions are relaxed.
The EV tax credit ended last month.
“With the evolving regulatory framework and the end of federal consumer incentives, it is now clear that near-term EV adoption will be lower than planned,” Barra said in her shareholder letter.
“By acting swiftly and decisively to address overcapacity, we expect to reduce EV losses in 2026 and beyond,” she said.
—Ford Motor beat Wall Street estimates as Americans spent more on its pickups and SUVs than expected in the third quarter.
Now the company is looking to benefit from tariff relief and make up for lost vehicle production stemming from a fire at a critical aluminum supplier.
Net income soared to $2.4 billion from $900 million, and shares in Ford rose in response.
CEO Jim Farley thanked President Trump for expanding tariff relief on imported auto parts while taxing rivals that make medium- and heavy-duty trucks in Mexico or elsewhere.
“We are no longer disadvantaged for building every single one of our Super Duties in the United States,” he said.
Ford’s third-quarter revenue exceeded $50 billion, setting a record and topping the $43 billion that analysts expected. Sales in the U.S. rose 8% from the year earlier, helped in part by the best performance in 20 years of the full-size Expedition SUV.
The company also plans to boost output of gasoline-powered F-Series pickups by 50,000 trucks in 2026 – and hire as many as 1,000 workers to support the effort.
But the fire at a supplier’s aluminum plant in New York state will cost Ford as much as $2 billion in earnings in the next quarter, prompting the automaker to cut its outlook for full-year income and cash flow. If not for the issue, the company would have raised its full-year earnings guidance. The aluminum plant’s CEO did tell the Wall Street Journal that they expect to be back online this year, sooner than expected.
Ford shares rose a whopping 12% today.
—Intel shares jumped Friday (but then fell back later in the session) after the company reported third quarter earnings and revenue after the bell Thursday that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
Intel reported $13.7 billion in revenue for the three months ended Sept. 27, higher than the
$13.15 billion expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg and $13.28 billion the previous year. The chipmaker said that adjusted earnings per share was $0.23, above the $0.01 projected by the Street.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan said in a statement that “AI is accelerating demand for compute and creating attractive opportunities across our portfolio,” including the company’s closely-watched struggling manufacturing business and its products.
“We believe we’re well-positioned to play a more significant role in AI,” added Intel’s head of investor relations John Pitzer in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Intel makes CPUs, or traditional computer chips, used alongside AI chips in data center servers to power artificial intelligence software. Its CPUs are also used in computers including AI PCs.
The company said it expects fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.08, less than the $0.10 per share estimated by analysts. The chipmaker forecasts revenue of $13.3 billion at the midpoint of its projected range, below consensus of $13.4 billion.
But Intel said the guidance didn’t include revenue from Altera – a semiconductor firm owned by Intel that the company partly divested in the third quarter.
—Texas Instruments shares fell after the semiconductor company reported earnings per share of $1.48, compared with Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.49. Revenue came in at $4.74 billion, which was ahead of consensus of $4.65bn.
But TXN forecast earnings per share for the current quarter of $1.13 to $1.39, which at the midpoint is well below the Street’s forecast of $1.41.
Texas Instruments makes the basic building-block chips that go into products in nearly every sector of the economy, from autos and industrials to consumer electronics.
—IBM beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter revenue and profit on Wednesday, driven by booming demand for its software and new mainframe as the rush to deploy AI models boosts sales for the underlying technology supporting them.
Businesses have prioritized spending on improving their platforms as they upgrade their systems to develop data-intensive artificial intelligence tech, helping drive demand for IBM’s high-margin software segments.
IBM recorded third-quarter revenue of $16.33 billion, beating analysts’ average estimate of $16.09 billion. The company’s adjusted profit of $2.65 per share for the September quarter also came in above estimates of $2.45.
The software segment grew 10% to $7.21 billion, beating estimates.
CFO Jim Kavanaugh said: “Addressing client pain points, around AI, around sovereignty…that is driving the client buying behavior overall.”
The infrastructure segment, housing its mainframe business, saw revenue rise 17% to $3.56 billion in the quarter.
IBM also raised its outlook for the current fiscal year, expecting revenue to grow more than 5% at constant currency, up from its prior forecast of at least 5% growth.
But the shares fell as growth at Red Hat appears to be decelerating and the stock had been up 31% year to date before the release.
—President Trump signed a landmark pact with visiting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to boost America’s access to rare earths and other critical minerals, an effort to counter China’s tight grip on the supply chains of key metals.
The two governments will jointly invest in a swathe of mines and processing projects in Australia to boost production of commodities used in advanced technologies from electric vehicles to semiconductors and fighter planes. Australia has an $8.5 billion “pipeline that we have ready to go,” Albanese said at a meeting between the two leaders at the White House.
“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump said.
—GE Aerospace stock rose to a record high on Tuesday after the jet engine maker beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year outlook, underscoring strong demand for commercial and military aviation.
GE reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share, a 44% increase from the same quarter last year. Revenue rose 24% to $12.2 billion. Wall Street was at EPS of $1.47 on total revenue of $10.9 billion.
GE Aerospace (a spin-off from General Electric) also raised its full-year guidance across the board. The company now projects revenue growth in the high teens, up from its prior mid-teens forecast. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in between $6 and $6.20, up from a prior range of $5.60 to $5.80.
—Target plans to cut around 1,800 corporate roles as part of an effort to remake its strategy to reverse a period of stagnant sales.
Target announced Thursday it will lay off around 1,000 global corporate employees and cut 800 open roles. The move will cut around 8% of its approximately 22,000 corporate employees, with around 80% of the cuts in its U.S. ranks.
“The truth is, the complexity we’ve created over time has been holding us back,’ Michael Fiddelke, Target’s incoming CEO, said in a memo sent to staff. “Too many layers and overlapping work have slowed decisions, making it harder to bring ideas to life.”
Target has reported 11 consecutive quarters of falling or weak comparable sales growth and named Fiddelke as its next CEO over the summer.
–Reuters reported that U.S. shipbuilders and port operators are getting hit in the fallout from President Trump’s campaign to wipe out the offshore wind industry, suffering hundreds of millions of dollars in lost government support, vanishing vessel orders, and an uncertain future for the billions of dollars’ worth of investments.
The offshore wind industry was responsible for many ship orders in recent years, and it has ground to a halt.
Reuters interviewed 13 port representatives, shipbuilders and trade groups who detailed the knock-on impacts of Trump’s policy moves targeting offshore wind. And the impacts include more than $679 million worth of canceled Department of Transportation financing for ports to support offshore wind, including a $34 million grant for a facility in Salem, Massachusetts that was expected to generate $75 million in tax revenue over 20 years and create 800 jobs.
Meanwhile, orders for new offshore wind service vessels – designed to carry workers and huge turbines offshore or to lay undersea cable – have also disappeared, according to trade group Oceantic, following a busy 2024 that saw the launch of at least 10 U.S. vessels built to serve offshore wind.
Existing vessels are also being sold off, or considered for redeployment to other global regions, according to the reporting.
—Warner Bros. Discovery said it is exploring a potential sale of all or some of its media holdings, setting into motion a deal process that could reshape the entertainment industry.
Paramount recently made a second offer for the company, according to the Wall Street Journal. Warner rejected it this week, one of the people said. [Apparently, Warner rejected a third bid as well.]
Warner has also received interest in its studio and streaming assets from multiple parties, people familiar with the company’s thinking said.
“After receiving interest from multiple parties, we have initiated a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives to identify the best path forward to unlock the full value of our assets,” Warner Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav said in a statement Tuesday morning. The company didn’t disclose what interest it had received.
Warner is home to the storied movie and TV studios behind “Sinners,” “Superman” and Harry Potter as well as HBO and cable networks including CNN and TNT.
The HBO parent company has been in the process of splitting itself into two companies.
The Journal reported that Comcast, the cable giant and owner of NBCUniversal, is expected to explore the Warner assets. But NBCUniversal is also in the process of splitting off the bulk of its cable-network assets from its studio, streaming and NBC broadcast network.
—Hilton Worldwide logged higher profit and revenue in the third quarter, despite flagging that occupancy has declined.
The hotel operator on Wednesday posted a profit of $420 million, or $1.78 a share, compared with $344 million, or $1.38 a share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of $2.11 per share beat consensus of $2.05.
Revenue climbed 8.8% to $3.2 billion, also ahead of expectations. Comparable revenue per available room – or RevPar, an important metric in the hospitality industry – fell 1.1%, which the company attributed to modest occupancy and daily-rate declines.
For the year the company raised its adjusted per-share earnings outlook to between $7.97 and $8.06, from a prior estimate of between $7.83 and $8.
Hilton shares rose 3.5%.
—Coca-Cola Co. said Tuesday its third-quarter revenue rose largely due to higher prices.
The Atlanta beverage giant said its organic revenue rose 6% to $12.41 billion in the July-September period. That was in line with what Wall Street expected.
Coke said its unit case volumes were up 1% worldwide. Case volumes were flat in North America and Latin America and down 1% in Asia. But they rose 4% in the company’s Europe, Middle East and Africa region. The company said it raised prices 6% during the quarter.
Adjusted earnings came in at 82 cents per share, with consensus at 78 cents.
—Molson Coors is eliminating about 400 salaried jobs across its Americas business, which come as the beer industry contends with a widespread slump.
The cuts, expected to be complete by the end of the year, represent about 9% of the salaried workforce in its Americas business, the company said Monday.
Molson had expected sentiment to improve throughout the year, but that hasn’t been the case. The company lowered its full-year outlook in August, citing weak beer demand, rising aluminum costs and slower-than-expected market share gains.
Other beer companies are struggling, as more people cut back on alcohol, especially younger consumers who prefer canned cocktails or non-alcoholic beverages. Expanding legalization of cannabis and the use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs also are eroding sales.
And you have the Trump administration’s seeping deportations which have prompted the pullback of many Hispanic shoppers, further hurting beer sales.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Trump posted on Truth Social, shortly after I posted this column last week:
“The meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine was very interesting, and cordial, but I told him, as I likewise strongly suggested to President Putin, that it is time to stop the killing, and make a DEAL! Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts. They should stop where they are. Let both claim Victory, let History decide! No more shooting, no more Death, no more vast and unsustainable sums of money spent. This is a War that would have never started if I were President. Thousands of people being slaughtered each and every week – NO MORE, GO HOME TO YOUR FAMILIES IN PEACE!”
According to the Washington Post, President Trump called for Russia and Ukraine to stop fighting at their current positions to settle the bitter war – a proposal that President Zelensky said he accepted as a starting point for further talks.
But Putin has said in the past that he wants parts of Ukraine that his troops do not currently occupy as the price for peace. Trump, who had spoken by phone to Putin the day before Zelensky visited the White House, said he had delivered the same message to both leaders.
Zelensky framed Trump’s proposal as a first step for broader negotiations and said the bigger question lay with Putin, whom he accused of not wanting peace.
“We have to stop where we are, he is right, the president is right,” Zelensky told reporters outside the White House after the meeting. “And then to speak,” he added, suggesting that stopping on the current line of contact could be a ceasefire on the road to a “just and lasting peace.”
Halting the war is “about Putin, because we didn’t start this war,” he said.
A Putin adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said Putin warned Trump that giving Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles would damage U.S.-Russian relations without changing the situation on the battlefield.
Zelensky hinted that his real objective on Friday was to increase pressure on Putin, which the mere discussion of Tomahawks appeared to have already accomplished.
“We want peace. Putin doesn’t want. That’s why we need pressure on him,” Zelensky told reporters in the Cabinet Room before the lunch. “We understand what we need to push Putin to [the] negotiation table.”
President Trump denied telling President Zelensky he should surrender the entire Donbas region to Russia to end the war – but said Kyiv should give up the land already taken by Russia.
Trump insisted that the two leaders “never discussed” giving up the entire region during their meeting Friday, amid the reports claiming it had descended into a “shouting match.”
“We never discussed that,” Trump told reporters on Sunday when pressed on whether he pushed for Ukraine to accept President Vladimir Putin’s terms for a cease-fire.
“We think that what they should do is just stop at the lines where they are – the battle lines. The rest is very tough to negotiate if you’re going to say, ‘You take this, we take that.’ There are just so many different permutations,” he continued.
“So what I say is they should stop right now at the battle lines. Go home, stop killing people and be done.”
Asked what should happen to the Donbas region, Trump added: “Let it be cut the way it is. It’s cut up right now.
“I think 78% of the land is already taken by Russia. You leave it the way it is right now. They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said.
“But I said cut and stop at the battle line, go home, stop fighting, stop killing people.”
But the Washington Post reported that Putin in his phone call with Trump demanded Kyiv surrender full control of Donetsk, a vital region in the east of Ukraine, as a condition for ending the war, said two senior officials familiar with the conversation.
Putin has tried and failed to conquer the territory for 11 years, repeatedly repulsed by Ukrainian forces who are deeply entrenched in an area they believe is a major bulwark against a speedy Russian advance westward toward their capital.
Just look at Pokrovsk, the logistical hub I’ve written of for well over a year. Russia has yet to take it.
In the call between Putin and Trump, Putin suggested he would be willing to surrender parts of two other regions of Ukraine he has partly conquered, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in exchange for full control of Donetsk, the officials told the Post.
The Financial Times reported that Trump had chastised Zelensky during their three-hour sit-down and dismissed maps of the frontline in Ukraine – as he urged his Ukrainian counterpart to give up swaths of territory to Russia.
“If Putin wants it, he will destroy you,” Trump is said to have told Zelensky, according to the FT.
For his part, Zelensky wants Trump to push Russia harder to end its invasion of his country. Zelensky asked for the Tomahawks and Trump was noncommittal. He was optimistic that he could personally broker a cease-fire, and he was not eager to give the powerful weapons to Ukraine. “We’d much rather have them not need Tomahawks,” Trump said, adding that he preferred that “the war be over.”
Trump added that he thought both Putin and Zelensky were “doing a great job” negotiating – and that his plan was to try to hash out their differences during a summit in Budapest.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“President Trump demurred Friday on whether he’ll send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and he clearly hasn’t made up his mind. But the missile threat seems to have captured Vladimir Putin’s attention, and the U.S. interest in driving a durable peace in Ukraine far outweighs the risks of handing over the missiles.
“ ‘Hopefully we’ll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks,’ Mr. Trump said during a meeting at the White House with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine’s supporters had hoped for Mr. Trump’s approval to obtain the missiles, which have a range of more than 1,000 miles. But another call with Mr. Putin this week appears to have stayed that decision.
“Mr. Trump’s reluctance seems to involve two concerns, and the first is escalation with a nuclear power. But Mr. Putin has been lobbing cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine for years, and there’s nothing escalatory about return fire. Tomahawks could be a force for peace by altering Mr. Putin’s capacity to carry on his grinding war.
“The long-range missiles would let Ukraine do better than simply swatting down hundreds of incoming drones. Instead it could take out Russia’s Shahed drone factory. Mr. Putin has tried to use nuclear blackmail for three years to talk the U.S. out of donating this or that weapon. The empirical record is that it’s bluster.
“The other concern is U.S. weapons inventories. ‘I have an obligation also, though, to make sure that we’re completely stocked up as a country,’ Mr. Trump said, and that’s his duty as Commander in Chief. U.S. stocks aren’t as healthy as they should be after years of political neglect on defense budgets. Mackenzie Eaglen of the American Enterprise Institute noted in our pages recently that the U.S. Navy fired more Tomahawk missiles in January 2024 than it bought the previous year.
“The U.S. is overdue for a serious rebuild of its defenses, and we’re ready to support Mr. Trump when he decides to spend political capital to make it happen. But hoarding cruise missiles for another war that may or may not come invites more conflict.
“While Ukraine is fighting Russian troops, Mr. Putin’s enabler and guarantor is China, whether via oil purchases or chips for military equipment. The U.S. won’t scare China with Tomahawk inventories if America looks afraid to defend its interests in Europe.
“Mr. Trump has said repeatedly he wants to end the war, and no doubt he means it. But Mr. Putin so far hasn’t shown any willingness to stop shooting. The President mused on social media this summer that Ukraine needed to go on offense and not be stuck in the Joe Biden policy of playing defense. That’s what Tomahawks can help Ukraine do, and that’s what will bring a faster peace.”
But the fact is, Trump has aired his frustration with Putin in public appearances but never followed through on a May threat to stiffen sanctions on the country unless it agreed to a 30-day ceasefire.
Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov scoffed at the prospect of allowing Kyiv to keep parts of the Donbas region.
“The topic was repeatedly raised in various forms during contacts between Russia and the U.S. The Russian side answered every time, this answer is well known: The consistency of Russia’s position doesn’t change,” Peskov told the local media.
The Russian military currently controls the vast majority of the Donbas, including all of Luhansk and about 75% of Donetsk, but Moscow has yet to claim the so-called “fortress belt,” which has expelled Russia’s invasion forces for more than three years.
Ukraine has repeatedly said that surrendering the region is a non-starter, fearing that Russia would bring up another invasion force and have an easier time conquering the country with the Donetsk fortress belt gone.
Tuesday, Trump said he did not want a “wasted meeting” after a plan to have face-to-face talks with Putin was put on hold.
Trump indicated that a key sticking point remained Moscow’s refusal to cease fighting along the current front line, in remarks at the White House on Tuesday.
“I guess the Russians wanted too much and it became evident for the Americans that there will be no deal for Trump in Budapest,” a senior European diplomat told Reuters.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, were supposed to meet this week – but the White House then said the two had had a “productive” call and that a meeting was no longer “necessary.”
But after the call, Lavrov said: “A ceasefire now would mean only one thing: A large part of Ukraine would remain under Nazi rule,” repeating Russia’s false assertion that they invaded Ukraine to free it from fascism.
Zelensky wrote on X: “Weasel out,” for dipping out of negotiations as soon as Trump made clear he wouldn’t be sending long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. “This signals that deep-strike capabilities may hold the key to peace,” Zelensky said.
Trump embraced the ceasefire proposal backed by Kyiv and European leaders to freeze the conflict on the current front line.
“Let it be cut the way it is,” the president reiterated. “I said: cut and stop at the battle line. Go home. Stop fighting, stop killing people.
Zelensky and European leaders accused Putin of stalling for time to continue his invasion as diplomatic efforts took place. They also said they opposed any push to make Kyiv surrender land captured by Russian forces in return for peace.
Dmitri Peskov said Wednesday that summit preparations were still in process and that a summit was “the mutual desire of both presidents” and most of the “gossip and rumors” surrounding it were untrue.
Zelensky, in Norway at the start of a European trip, told reporters that Trump’s proposal to freeze the front line was a “good compromise, but I’m not sure that Putin will support it and I said it to the president.”
But then late Wednesday, as noted above in the oil discussion, President Trump took his most significant and direct action yet against Putin, announcing new sanctions (actually formally announced by the Treasury Department) that target Russia’s two largest oil companies.
Speaking to reporters as he met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump told reporters he “felt it was time” to elevate the punishments against Russia.
“It’s a very big day in terms of what we’re doing. These are tremendous sanctions. They’re big, these are against their two big oil companies and we hope they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled,” Trump said.
“We would like to see them just take the line that has been formed over quite a long period of time and just go home,” referring to current battle lines.
Trump had previously placed tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil, but Wednesday’s move marks the first direct punitive action toward Moscow since Trump returned to the White House, promising to end the war within 24 hours.
Just last week, Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him India would stop buying Russian oil, though India has not made such a commitment publicly.
The EU and UK have also taken action against Rosneft and lukoil
—Ukrainian drones overnight last Saturday struck a major gas processing plant in southern Russia, sparking a fire and forcing it to suspend its intake of gas from Kazakhstan, Russian and Kazakh authorities said Sunday.
The Orenberg plant, run by state-owned gas giant Gazprom and located in a region of the same name near the Kazakh border, is part of a production and processing complex that is one of the world’s largest facilities of its kind.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian prosecutors claim that Moscow is modifying its deadly aerial-guided bombs to strike civilians deeper in Ukraine. Local authorities in Kharkiv said Russia struck a residential neighborhood using a new rocket-powered aerial bomb for the first time.
Overnight Monday into Tuesday, Russian attacks killed four people and left hundreds of thousands without power and many without water in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region on Tuesday.
A subsequent daytime attack by about 20 Russian kamikaze drones killed four civilians and wounded at least seven more in the town of Novhorod-Siverskyi, local officials said. The town is about 20 miles from the Russian border.
Overnight Tuesday, at least seven people were killed including two children during intense Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, said President Zelensky.
A kindergarten was hit in Ukraine’s second biggest city Kharkiv (one dead, seven wounded, including six children) and there was widespread damage in Kyiv, in a series of attacks that Zelensky said proved Moscow had not come under enough pressure for its continued war. A couple in their 60s were killed when a drone hit their high-rise building in the capital.
Ukraine’s air force said Russia had sent 405 drones and 28 missiles, 15 of which were ballistic.
Kyiv was under a ballistic missile warning for most of the night and echoed to the sound of explosions.
Across Ukraine, Russian attacks once again targeted energy infrastructure and emergency power outages were imposed in several areas.
Ukraine, in turn, said it attacked a Russian chemical plant in the Bryansk region late on Tuesday with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.
Calling the strike “a successful hit” that penetrated the Russian air defense system, military officials said the Bryansk plant “produces gunpowder, explosives and rocket fuel components used in ammunition and missiles employed by the enemy to shell the territory of Ukraine.”
Israel/Gaza: Israel conducted dozens of airstrikes across Gaza on Sunday and halted humanitarian aid into the enclave after it accused Hamas of killing troops inside Israeli-controlled areas in what was the biggest test of the fragile cease-fire. The Israeli military said two soldiers were killed in southern Gaza.
Israel’s military then struck multiple targets in Gaza, using aircraft and artillery, killing 45 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials. But the strikes ended and humanitarian aid resumed.
President Trump has on multiple occasions struck an aggressive tone in warning Hamas against any violations, saying the group will be eradicated if the ceasefire doesn’t hold. He has clarified that U.S. forces wouldn’t destroy Hamas themselves, but others would.
Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance visited Israel and expressed optimism the deal would hold.
“Things are going, frankly, better than I expected,” he said, and that “everybody should be proud” of where the situation stands in just more than a week after the ceasefire began.
“I feel very optimistic. Can I say with 100 percent certainty that it’s going to work? No. But you don’t do difficult things by only doing what’s 100 percent certain. You do difficult things by trying. And that’s what the president of the United States has asked us to do,” Vance said.
Vance on Wednesday met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, joined by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, illustrating the fragility of the peace agreement. The New York Times has reported that the Trump administration is concerned that Netanyahu may pull out of the deal.
Ahead of his meeting with Vance, Netanyahu toughened his stance by declaring that his country is in charge of its own security and isn’t an American protectorate.
“We are not a protectorate of the United States. Israel is the one that will decide on its security,” Netanyahu said as he headed into the meeting.
The deal has thus far held, despite Israel and Hamas exchanging fire.
But uncertainty remains over the deployment of an international security force in Gaza and who will govern the territory. Vance said Tuesday officials are brainstorming on the composition of the security force, mentioning Turkey and Indonesia as countries expected to contribute troops.
Wednesday, Israel said it completed the identification of the bodies of two more hostages that were handed over by the Red Cross to the Israeli military in Gaza on Tuesday. That brought the total to 15 hostages whose remains have been returned, leaving another 13 that need to be recovered in Gaza and handed over.
Vice President Vance urged patience regarding the recovery of the remaining bodies, saying that some remains are buried under thousands of pounds of rubble.
“It is a focus of everybody here to get those bodies back home to their families so that they can have a proper burial,” he said, adding that “This is not going to happen overnight.”
—The U.S. and Israel are considering a plan that would divide Gaza into separate zones controlled by Israel and Hamas, with reconstruction only taking place on the Israeli side as a stopgap until the militant group can be disarmed and removed from power.
Vice President Vance and Jared Kushner summarized the thinking in Tuesday’s news conference in Israel, with Vance saying there are two regions in Gaza, one relatively safe and the other incredibly dangerous, and that the goal is to geographically expand the area that is safe. Until then, Kushner said, no funds for reconstruction would go to areas that remain under Hamas/ control, and the focus would be on building up the safe side.
Arab mediators are alarmed by the plan which, they said, the U.S. and Israel have brought up in peace talks. Arab governments strongly oppose the idea of dividing Gaza, arguing it could lead to a zone of permanent Israeli control inside the enclave. They are unlikely to commit troops to police the enclave on those terms.
–At week’s end, Vice President Vance rebuked a vote by Israel’s parliament to extend sovereignty over the West Bank, in defiance of an earlier commitment by President Trump, calling it stupid and insulting.
“The West Bank is not going to be annexed by Israel. The policy of the Trump administration is that the West Bank will not be annexed by Israel,” the vice president said while leaving the country. “If people want to take symbolic votes, they can do that, but we certainly weren’t happy about it.”
The vote came a month after Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he wouldn’t allow Israel to annex the contested territory, which is seen as the heart of any future Palestinian state.
“If it was a political stunt, it was a very stupid political stunt, and I personally take some insult to it,” Vance said Thursday.
I totally agree with the president and vice president. If Israel ever did this, any remaining support they have, globally, would dwindle to single digits.
China: Beijing purged its second-most senior general and eight other high-ranking military commanders end of last week, as Xi Jinping dialed up a crackdown on corruption and disloyalty in the armed forces with the ouster of a handpicked protégé.
An editorial published by the PLA Daily on Saturday said the nine generals were “being disloyal” and losing their “chastity.”
It further accused them of “a total collapse of their beliefs” as party members.
The ouster of the No. 2, He Weidong, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and a member of the 24-member Politburo, as well as the wording of the accusation leveled against him and the others sparked speculation as to whether Gen. He had been compromised by foreign forces, though the party released no details.
Saturday’s editorial said the nine generals had done serious damage to the principles that the party should command the army and that the army was accountable to the chairman of the CMC.
North Korea: Pyongyang performed its first ballistic missile test in five months Wednesday, South Korea’s military said, days before President Trump and other world leaders are to gather in rival South for a regional conference.
Experts have said North Korea could launch provocative missile tests before or during the APEC summit to underscore its commitment to being recognized as a nuclear weapons state.
Colombia: President Gustavo Petro accused the United States of murdering an innocent fisherman in an attack on a boat that the American authorities claimed had been carrying illicit drugs, prompting President Trump to declare on Sunday that he would slash assistance to Colombia, one of Washington’s top aid recipients in Latin America, and impose new tariffs on the country’s goods.
The feuding between the two leaders reflected rising tensions in the region over the huge U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean targeting Colombia’s neighbor, Venezuela.
Trump accused Petro of being an “illegal drug dealer” with “a fresh mouth toward America.”
Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that U.S. forces struck a second vessel alleged to be carrying drugs in the Pacific Ocean, amid an escalating campaign against seaborne drug smuggling.
Three people were killed, a day after the U.S. struck another boat in the Pacific, killing two people.
Both vessels were believed to be carrying drugs along known trafficking routes in international waters, Hegseth added.
These were the eighth and ninth strikes against suspected drug boats since September 2 – but the first in waters of the Pacific Ocean.
Then today, Secretary Hegseth announced a tenth strike on a vessel, killing six people. The vessel was operated by the Tren de Aragua gang, according to the secretary, and the strike occurred in the Caribbean.
At least 46 have been killed in the U.S. strikes.
Two men survived a strike last week and were repatriated to Colombia and Ecuador.
And then as I alluded to above, we learned this afternoon that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its strike group is being sent to the region.
Randon Musings
—Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: New numbers…41% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 54% disapprove. 33% of independents approve (Oct. 1-16). [Prior split, 40-56, 32.]
Rasmussen: 47% approve, 51% disapprove (Oct. 24).
–In a CNBC All-America Economic Survey, released last Friday, 55% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy while just 42% approved. Just 34% approved of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 62% disapproved.
His overall approval rating dropped from 46% to 44%, disapproval 52%.
—The annual American Values Survey, released by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) on Wednesday, found that 62% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, fueled by 92% of Democrats, 71% of independents and 24% of Republicans. The 68-point partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans is an all-time high, the poll revealed, while most respondents believe the economy (65%), the functioning of the federal government (65%) and the approach to undocumented immigration (57%) play a part.
–In the New York City mayoral race, those living in the New York metro area know what a Republican power broker billionaire John Catsimatidis is and in a radio program this week, he pleaded for Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa to end his bid – in a last-ditch attempt to unite behind Andrew Cuomo with just over two weeks left until voters head to the polls.
“Curtis would make the best mayor of all the candidates…but Curtis has to realize that he should love New York more than anything else,” the supermarket magnate said on WABC. “It certainly looks like Curtis should pull out right now.”
“I think Curtis would be a hero if we beat Zohran.”
The New York Post Editorial Board then weighed in:
“The Post is calling on Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa to drop out of the race for City Hall.
“It burns to write this, but: It’s time for Curtis Sliwa to face reality, and admit that the city’s best hope to avoid the disaster of a Zohran Mamdani mayoralty is for him to drop out of the race.
“Sliwa is absolutely right that it’s not his fault that New York is in this corner, but fault isn’t the issue here.
“The simple fact is that the Republican nominee is far back in third place in every poll, with zero chance of winning.
“Polls show Andrew Cuomo in spitting distance of Mamdani if Sliwa quits the race; if Curtis stays in and Andrew loses by a Sliwa-shaped hole, then he will be blamed.
“Plenty of readers will erupt in fury at us, and we get it: No one will confuse this page, or The Post as a whole, for Cuomo fans.
“That’s not the issue, either: In a dire situation, we’ve got to deal with the facts as they are, ugly as they are.
“Moving forward, and with no disrespect to Curtis Sliwa: If the Republican Party wants to be a viable alternative to the Democrats for citywide office, it has to do better.
“Sliwa has worked hard in this run, getting well-briefed on all the issues, showing up every day all over the city and even setting aside his proud red beret.
“But he is an oddball, with a sometimes-shady past and zero experience relevant to running the behemoth that is city government – yet the GOP’s county bosses lined up firmly behind Sliwa.
“If Republicans had come up with a more credible candidate, with a second line less eccentric than Protect Animals, we’d likely now be demanding that Cuomo drop right now.
“But the fact remains that Mamdani is poised to win and do major, deadly damage to the lives of all New Yorkers: He must be stopped.
“It stinks, but for the sake of the city you love so deeply, Curtis, please swallow this bitter pill.”
Wednesday, the candidates held their final debate and Cuomo at least showed some life, as he and Sliwa went hard after Mamdani.
–In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Wednesday had Democrat Mikie Sherrill with a 5-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters…50% to 45%.
It’s down to the wire…call it dead even…and as Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling put it: “Turnout will decide everything – and in off-year elections like this, turnout is notoriously unpredictable.”
The fear in the Sherrill camp is that Blacks and Hispanics will not turn out, and Barack Obama is going to be in the area this weekend in a last attempt to get out the vote.
I will not be surprised if Ciattarelli pulls off the upset.
—President Trump last Friday night on Truth Social:
“George Santos was somewhat of a ‘rogue,’ but there are many rogues throughout our Country that aren’t forced to serve seven years in prison. I started to think about George when the subject of Democrat Senator Richard ‘Da Nang Dick’ Blumenthal came up again. As everyone remembers, ‘Da Nang’ stated for almost twenty years that he was a proud Vietnam Veteran, having endured the worst of the war, watching the Wounded and Dead as he raced up the hills and down the valleys, blood streaming from his face. He was ‘a Great Hero,’ he would leak to any and all who would listen – And then it happened! He was a COMPLETE AND TOTAL FRAUD. He never went to Vietnam, he never saw Vietnam, he never experienced the Battles there, or anywhere else. His War Hero status, and even minimal service in our Military, was totally and completely MADE UP. This is far worse than what George Santos did, and at least Santos had the Courage, Conviction, and Intelligence to ALWAYS VOTE REPUBLICAN! George Santos has been in solitary confinement for long stretches of time and, by all accounts, has been horribly mistreated. Therefore, I just signed a Commutation, releasing George Santos from prison, IMMEDIATELY. Good luck George, have a great life!”
Santos’ brief congressional career was imperiled almost immediately after it started as the New York Times and other outlets exposed that his ascent was built on a spectacular web of lies, like saying his mother had been in the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, and that he was a college volleyball star. He also said he had extensive Wall Street experience that allowed him to report loaning his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars.
All lies…and his fellow Republicans grew increasingly uneasy. He was then indicted in 2023 for a variety of criminal schemes and became the first person in history to be expelled from the House without being convicted of a federal crime or supporting the Confederacy.
In an interview Sunday with CNN, Santos vowed he wasn’t thinking about running for political office for at least the next ten years and was more focused on prison reform.
–The Wall Street Journal reported that former Trump campaign lawyer Kurt Olsen, who worked on the effort to overturn the 2020 elections results, has joined the administration to investigate that year’s election and voter-related issues, according to the Journal’s reporting.
Olsen is a “special government employee,” sources said, giving him 130 days to work from within the White House without giving up any private business interests. He is talking directly with President Trump, the people said.
“Olsen has begun asking intelligence agencies for information about the 2020 election, the officials said. Olsen has told others he also wants to weed out some government employees who he believes are disloyal to Trump….
“In late 2020, Olsen contacted senior Justice Department officials on Trump’s behalf and pushed them to file a motion to nullify the election with the Supreme Court, according to documents obtained by the House panel that investigated the Jan. 6 attack. The draft complaint urged the high court to order a special election for president in some of the states where Trump lost, according to the committee. The acting attorney general at the time, Jeffrey Rosen, ignored the requests. Trump talked to Olsen several times on Jan. 6, the committee found.”
Wednesday night, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Ask former President Barack Hussein Obama whether or not he really believes that in 2020 Joe Biden got 15 Million more Votes than he did in 2012 (65.9 vs. 81 Million). Additionally, ask him why it is that Joe Biden ‘beat’ Obama in every single Swing State with the Black Vote in 2020, even though Black Voters hate him, but in no other State? THE 2020 ELECTION WAS AN ILLEGAL SCAM/HOAX THAT THE PEOPLE OF OUR GREAT COUNTRY WILL NEVER FORGET!”
–I must say it was kind of startling seeing demolition of a portion of the East Wing of the White House to build President Trump’s long-desired ballroom despite his pledge that construction of the $250 million addition wouldn’t “interfere” with the existing building.
I wrote this earlier in the week. We then learned the entire East Wing was being torn down.
“In order to do it properly, we had to take down the existing structure,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.
The optics are awful, even as a larger space for entertaining guests and holding celebrations at the White House is warranted.
“President Trump’s desecration of the White House is an insult to the American people and a betrayal of his obligation to safeguard our history and heritage,” Sen. Angus King (I-ME) said in a statement.
The White House said it would submit plans for the ballroom construction for review by the National Capital Planning Commission, which oversees federal construction in Washington and neighboring states, even though demolition had already begun.
—Trump confirmed Tuesday that his attorneys are seeking a legal settlement with his own Justice Department for the department’s investigations into him during the Biden administration.
The New York Times reported that Trump is demanding the department pay him about $230 million, after submitting claims through an administrative process that is often a precursor to lawsuits.
Trump didn’t disclose the dollar amount but confirmed the push for a settlement when asked about the report.
“I don’t know the numbers, I don’t even talk to them about it. All I know is that they would owe me a lot of money, but I’m not looking for money. I would give it to charity or something,” Trump said.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Thursday:
“The Federal Government was preparing to ‘surge’ San Francisco, California, on Saturday, but friends of mine who live in the area called last night to ask me not to go forward with the surge in that the Mayor, Daniel Lure, was making substantial progress. I spoke to Mayor Lurie last night and he asked, very nicely, that I give him a chance to see if he can turn it around. I told him I think he is making a mistake, because we can do it much faster, and remove the criminals that the Law does not permit him to remove. I told him, ‘It’s an easier process if we do it, faster, stronger, and safer but, let’s see how you do?’ The people of San Francisco have come together on fighting Crime, especially since we began to take charge of that very nasty subject. Great people like Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, and others have called saying that the future of San Francisco is great. They want to give it a ‘shot.’ Therefore, we will not surge San Francisco on Saturday. Stay tuned!”
Separately, according to reports, National Guard troops won’t be deploying in the Chicago area anytime soon unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes because a judge on Wednesday extended her temporary restraining order indefinitely.
—Trump, for some reason, decided to pick a fight with America’s cattle ranchers, over their criticism of his plan to slash record beef prices by importing more meat from Argentina, deepening a quarrel with a group of reliable supporters and raising concerns among ranch-state Republican lawmakers.
Trump said on Wednesday that cattlemen should be grateful for his tariffs, saying they have helped boost their profits while also imploring them to lower the cost of their products.
“If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years – Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that,” the president posted on Truth Social, “but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!”
“Market participants know that increased imports from Argentina will reduce demand for domestic cattle, and that’s why cattle markets have responded negatively to the president’s plan,” Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of the Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund, United Stockgrowers of America, said in a statement Monday. “President Trump should direct his antitrust enforcers to determine the extent to which the alleged unlawful price fixing has contributed to today’s higher beef prices.”
“Unfortunately, we have an administration that thinks they have to lower the price of beef,” Mark McHargue, the president of the Nebraska Farm Bureau, posted on X. “Nebraska Farm Bureau is adamantly opposed to anything that would artificially lower the price of beef…quite frankly we need this bright spot in Nebraska.”
“We love you and support you – but your suggestion to buy beef from Argentina to stabilize beef prices would be an absolute betrayal to the American cattle rancher,” Wyoming-based Meriwether Farms wrote on X, addressing Trump.
Trump is faced with the dilemma that while his tariffs have helped protect some American industries, they have also helped drive up prices for consumers – cutting against his campaign promise to tackle inflation. [Facts are facts, Trump supporters.]
Argentine beef only accounts for about 2% of U.S. beef imports and increasing supplies may only have a marginal effect on what consumers pay.
—A blood test for more than 50 types of cancer could help speed up diagnosis, according to a new study first reported by the BBC.
Results of a trial in North America show that the test was able to identify a wide range of cancers, of which three-quarters don’t have any form of screening program.
More than half the cancers were detected at an early stage, where they are easier to treat and potentially curable.
The Galleri test, made by American pharmaceutical firm Grail, can detect fragments of cancerous DNA that have broken off a tumor and are circulating in the blood. It is currently being trialed by the NHS, the National Health Service of England.
The trial followed 25,000 adults from the U.S. and Canada over a year, with nearly one in 100 getting a positive result. For 62% of these cases, cancer was later confirmed.
The test could fundamentally change the approach to cancer screening.
The test correctly ruled out cancer in over 99% of those who tested negative.
But scientists not involved in the research say more evidence is needed to show whether the blood test reduces deaths from cancer.
Much will depend on the results of a three-year trial involving 140,000 NHS patients in England, which will be published next year.
—The stolen jewel heist at the Louvre, the world’s most visited museum on Sunday, in broad daylight, is kind of depressing, and certainly is so for the French, who are wondering how such a thievery could occur…as in where was the security?
And what does this say about not only other museums, but all public places in Paris. Thank God the Olympics went off without a major hitch.
—Damage to remote Alaska villages hammered by flooding last weekend is so extreme that many of the more than 2,000 people displaced won’t be able to return to their homes for at least 18 months, Gov. Mike Dunleavy said in a request to the White House for a major disaster declaration.
The remnants of Typhoon Halong struck the area with the ferocity of a Category 2 hurricane, Dunleavy said, sending a surge of high surf into the low-lying region. One person was killed, two remain missing, and rescue crews plucked dozens of people from their homes as they floated away.
—Tropical Storm Melissa lumbered through the Caribbean Sea at week’s end, bringing life-threatening flooding to Jamaica and southern Hispaniola. Some regions are seeing a foot or more of rain, causing dangerous landslides.
But now it could become a major hurricane, and while it will continue to cause great damage to Jamaica, and then Cuba, the path as of today has it then going east into the Atlantic, away from the U.S. mainland.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4127
Oil $61.52
Bitcoin: $110,667 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.06; Diesel: $3.64 [$3.15 – $3.58 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 10/20-10/24
Dow Jones +2.2% [47207]
S&P 500 +1.9% [6791]
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +2.5%
Nasdaq +2.3% [23204]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-10/24/25
Dow Jones +11.0%
S&P 500 +15.5%
S&P MidCap +5.7%
Russell 2000 +12.7%
Nasdaq +20.2%
Bulls 52.8
Bears 15.1
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
