For the week 11/3-11/7

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,385

China launched its largest aircraft carrier yesterday, at the same time the United States has been building a massive force in the Caribbean, clearly for the purpose of regime change in Venezuela.  The New York Times reported Thursday that the U.S. has even been staging and flying attack aircraft out of El Salvador.

As former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder wrote Tuesday for Politico: “For Trump, the entire Western hemisphere is America’s.  For him, the biggest threats to America today are the immigrants flooding across the country’s borders and the drugs killing tens of thousands from overdoses. And to that end, his real goal is to dominate the entire Western hemisphere – from the North Pole to the South Pole – using America’s superior military and economic power to defeat all ‘enemies,’ both foreign and domestic….

“Overall, Trump’s focus on dominating the Western hemisphere represents a profound shift from nearly a century’s-long focus on warding off overseas threats to protect Americans at home.  And like it or not, for Trump, security in the second quarter of the 21st century lies in concepts and ideas first developed in the last quarter of the 19th century.”

Chinese leaders have to be shaking their heads in amazement, thinking, ‘What is America doing?!’

Chris Miller, who ran the Pentagon in the lame-duck months of the first Trump administration, says he expected more from the second, not less, when it comes to America’s ability to deter China.

“Where’s the leadership?  We spend a trillion dollars a year on national security. We can do more than one thing,” Miller said during a panel at last week’s AFCEA TechNet Indo-Pacific conference. He shared the stage with Sean Berg, a former deputy commander of Special Operations Command Pacific, who said China “is already in phase three” of a war while “we still think of ourselves in phase zero: shaping.” [Defense One]

Meanwhile, as I detail below, Russian forces are on the verge of taking a critical city in Ukraine, Pokrovsk, which can lead to the fall of the entire Donetsk region in what would be a massive defeat for Kyiv.  And President Trump won’t send Ukraine Tomahawk missiles.

Notice, he hasn’t mentioned Ukraine in weeks.  It’s all kind of sickening.

—

Wednesday, a majority of Supreme Court justices asked skeptical questions about President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on imports from nearly every U.S. trading partner, casting doubt on a centerpiece of the administration’s second-term agenda.

It is expected a ruling could come in weeks, certainly by year end, and it could have major economic and political implications for U.S. businesses, consumers and the president’s trade policies.

In the lead up to Wednesday’s argument, President Trump called the case “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country.”  Without the emergency power, he said on Truth Social, the country “is virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us.”

The key question for the justices on Wednesday was whether the president exceeded his authority when he used a 1977 emergency statute (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act).  Past presidents have relied on the law to impose sanctions or embargoes on other countries, but Trump is the first to use it to impose tariffs.

Justices Gorsuch and Barrett raised separation-of-power concerns, given that the Constitution gives the power to tax to Congress.

But while the media focused on the skepticism in the questioning, I’m sorry, but there is no way the Supreme Court will rule against Trump because they recognize what a “mess” this would create.

The language of the attached opinions, however, especially from the conservative side of the bench, is what will be of utmost interest.  Should I be right, I expect some very harsh and stern words for both the president and Congress from those who reluctantly go along with what will be a 5-4 ruling because they want to avoid chaos.

Chief Justice John Roberts has a monumental task ahead.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

The government shutdown dragged on, becoming the longest in history on Wednesday, Day 36.  Funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) lapsed on Saturday, forcing more than 40 million low-income Americans who rely on the program to face the prospect of going without it to cover grocery costs.  The Agriculture Department had initially refused to distribute contingency funding for the program, arguing that it could only be used in cases of natural disasters, but two federal judges last week ordered the administration to use the funds soon.

Also Saturday, the open-enrollment window for people to choose health care plans through the Affordable Care Act’s exchange opened, and folks saw an average annual premium increase of 26 percent, with subsidies currently expiring at year end.

A group of eight moderate Senate Democrats were at the center of any deal to end the shutdown.

The administration then said Monday that it will partially fund SNAP.

But it wasn’t clear how much beneficiaries will receive, nor how quickly they will see value show up on the debit cards they use to buy groceries.

Meanwhile, government jobs that require workers attendance without pay – such as air-traffic controllers – were at a pressure point as flight delays began to pile up over the weekend and into this week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy saying delays are just going to worsen without a resolution.

Then Tuesday morning, President Trump did a complete 180 on SNAP benefits in a Truth Social post:

“SNAP BENEFITS, which increased by Billions and Billions of Dollars (MANY FOLD!) during Crooked Joe Biden’s disastrous term in office (Due to the fact that they were haphazardly ‘handed’ to anyone for the asking, as opposed to just those in need, which is the purpose of SNAP!), will be given only when the Radical Left Democrats open up government, which they can easily do, and not before!  Thank you for your attention to this matter.  President DJT”

Just last week, the president had said he wanted to see the SNAP benefits paid.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt then attempted to clarify, saying the administration would comply with the court rulings but it would take some time to do so.

Officials at the Department of Agriculture said Wednesday it could distribute 65% of normal SNAP benefits, but it wasn’t clear when that would be.

Meanwhile, the president called last week for Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster to allow themselves to vote to reopen the government by a simple majority vote rather than the 60-vote supermajority needed for most legislation.

But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) was against such a move, Thune an ardent defender of the Senate’s longtime procedural measure.

Utah Sen. John Curtis (R) also defended the filibuster as a way to require collaboration between the parties.

“The filibuster forces us to find common ground in the Senate. Power changes hands, but principles shouldn’t,” Curtis said in a post on X.

Wednesday, with the elections over, there was optimism the needed eight Democrats would move to open the government, especially ahead of the Veterans Day holiday recess.

But a deal would have to move the date proposed under the House-passed CR (continuing resolution), which currently would have government funding set to expire on Nov. 21, a date that is rapidly approaching.

And then nothing happened Thursday…or Friday, with all kinds of confusing stories on SNAP between the administration and the courts, though there are some states saying they apparently have full funding on the beneficiaries’ cards as of last night or today.

Policy analysts see the end in sight by Thanksgiving, but that would be too late for the holiday travel season and disastrous for air travelers.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he was cutting 10% of flight capacity to airports starting Friday, and Thursday, the Federal Aviation Administration chief Bryan Bedford announced the 40 impacted airports.

Friday’s cancellations totaled about 4% (United, Delta, American and Southwest cancelling 700+ combined), with the 10% level being the norm sometime next week.

Duffy then said this afternoon that if the shutdown doesn’t end soon, the 10% figure could rise to 15% or even 20%.

Air-traffic controllers must show up for their jobs but aren’t getting paid.  They have missed one paycheck so far and will miss another one in the coming days with the shutdown continuing.  Little wonder then many are calling in sick and taking second jobs.

This morning, Trump issued a series of Truth Social posts such as this one:

“Republicans, Terminate the Filibuster and bring back the American Dream.  If you don’t do it, the Dems will, and you’ll never see office again! President DJT”

Then late this afternoon, the Democrats pared back their demands to end the shutdown, but are insisting on a one-year extension of expiring health care subsidies in exchange for their votes on a temporary spending bill.

But this will likely be rejected by Republicans.  To be continued….

—

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member on the Open Market Committee, said in an interview Monday that he was undecided about whether to cut interest rates again in December, after voting to do so at the October meeting.

“I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for 4.5 years and it’s trending the wrong way.”

Goolsbee said he remains worried about “front-loading rate cuts,” noting that core inflation over the past three months has been running at 3.6% on an annualized basis, while core services inflation has been closer to 4% for the same period, with the Fed’s inflation target being 2%.

“That’s worrying because that’s going the wrong way,” he said.  “If we’re just counting on that to go away because it’s transitory, that makes me uneasy.”

The administration, with good reason, is worried about the midterm elections, especially after Tuesday’s results in New Jersey and Virginia and the reasons for the huge wins for the Democrats.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is laying the groundwork for blaming the Federal Reserve for any economic weakness, talking last weekend on CNN of some sectors that are already contracting.  He did not specify which sectors, but high mortgage rates have put housing and adjacent industries such as construction under pressure.

“I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession,” Bessent said.  He described the economy as being in a “period of transition” because of a pullback in government spending to reduce the deficit, while calling on the Fed to support the economy by cutting interest rates.

As in Bessent is adding to the pressure on the Fed and attempting to deflect blame from President Trump in case the economy does ultimately face a downturn, reinforcing a strategy that has been in place since the start of the year.

I spell out the election statistics down below, but the Wall Street Journal summarized things well in an editorial following Tuesday’s results:

“Mr. Trump has a point that the government shutdown may have hurt the GOP as the party in power, especially in Northern Virginia with its government employees.  But that doesn’t explain why suburban counties in New Jersey swung so sharply to the left.  Voters in exit polls in the Garden State disapprove of Mr. Murphy, the incumbent Democratic Governor, and only 40% rate the state economy as positive. But they still voted for Ms. Sherrill.

“Democrats won because they focused on the cost of living and in most races avoided the leftist cultural cul de sacs of the Biden years.  The polls showed the economy is by far the biggest issue, and Mr. Trump’s approval rating on inflation and the economy is underwater.  ICE raids on Home Depot parking lots and running against transgender extremists won’t work if Democrats don’t play into GOP hands.

“The electorate gave Mr. Trump another term because he pledged to lower prices and raise real incomes.  But his economic record is mixed at best. Inflation is stuck at 3%.  Yet Mr. Trump causes damage with his mercurial tariffs, and then he demands the Federal Reserve slash interest rates to compensate for it.  Meantime, he pursues polarizing distractions from his mandate, such as ordering the National Guard into cities that don’t want it and lobbying for indictments of his political opponents.

“The 2025 election was a warning from the voters.  If Republicans don’t adapt, the GOP is sure to lose its House majority and the Senate could be in play too.”

Meanwhile, we did have some economic data that wasn’t impacted by the shutdown.  The ISM’s manufacturing reading for October was 48.7, less than expected (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), while the service sector figure was a stronger than forecast 52.4.

And we had a disturbing jobs report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024.

It was the highest total for the month since October 2003, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008.

“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month.  Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes.  Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Andy Challenger.

“Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape.”

Back in 2003, the figure was influenced by Retail due to acquisitions and in Telecommunications as cell phones gained wide adoption.

Friday, we had a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in November from the University of Michigan, 50.3, down from last month’s 53.6 which is the lowest reading since 2022, amid a historic bout of inflation; the figure adding to the dour mood on Wall Street.

“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director at the university.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is a strong 4.0%, but these folks are suffering along with everyone else in not getting data from the government.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.22%, up from last week’s 6.17%.

The National Retail Federation released its forecast for the holiday shopping season, which it defines as November and December, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared with last year.

Retailers rung up $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from 2023, the group said.

“We’re seeing really positive behavior and engagement from consumers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told reporters on a call Thursday.  “In fairness, that’s been somewhat of a surprise.”

Next week we were supposed to get October inflation data on consumer and producer prices.  But not now.  Even if the government reopened early next week, these reports will be delayed.

Europe and Asia

We had the PMI readings in the eurozone for October, and the composite reading was 52.5, a 29-month high.  Manufacturing 51.0, services 53.0 (17-mo. high). [S&P Global / Hamburg Commercial Bank]

Germany: 49.6 manufacturing, 54.6 services (29-mo. high)
France: 48.8 mfg., 48.0 services
Italy: 49.9 mfg., 54.0 services
Spain: 52.1 mfg., 56.6 services
Ireland: 50.9 mfg., 56.7 services
Netherlands: 51.8 mfg.
Greece: 53.5 mfg.

UK: 49.7 mfg., 52.3 services

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“Finally, there’s something positive to report about the eurozone economy again. The services sector saw a solid upswing in October.  When it comes to new business, you’d have to go back to May of last year to find a similarly strong increase. In this environment, service providers also hired more staff than in the previous month, which sparks hope for sustained growth.

“A key driver of growth in the services sector this October was Germany.  The jump in the index there – up more than three points to 54.6 – is striking and more than offsets the decline in France, where political tensions are dampening people’s willingness to spend.  In France, political stability would help – passing the 2026 budget would be a step in that direction. In Germany, much will depend on whether the government’s stimulus package actually motivates businesses and households to invest and spend more.”

Eurostat released industrial producer price data for September, down 0.1% over August in the euro area, and -0.2% vs. Sept. 2024.

Retail sales in the EA20 for September fell 0.1% compared with August, but were up 1.0% from a year ago.

Britain: The Bank of England held the line on interest rates this week, after five rate cuts, though the decision was only by a 5-4 vote.  But if the dynamics are as expected, with some more weakening in the labor market and confirmation that CPI has peaked, then a cut is likely at the pre-Christmas meeting.

As in our Federal Reserve, the BOE has two distinct camps.  Those who want more cuts vs. those saying inflation is too entrenched to do so.

Netherlands: Following up on my comments after last week’s election, where both the center-left Democrats and Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom each received 26 seats of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats ended up with more votes after all the mail-in ballots were reported, the difference between the two parties nearly 28,500, out of more than 10 million cast.

So the Democrats (D66) will get the first crack at trying to form a coalition with other parties, a process expected to take months to reach a majority of 76 seats.  Rob Jetten, the 38-year-old leader of D66, will be in the spotlight as he stands to become prime minister.

China’s private RatingDog (formerly Caixin) manufacturing PMI for October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in October; services 52.6.  Both figures better than the government’s official PMIs released last week.

But China’s exports in October unexpectedly contracted, -1.1% from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs.  Shipments to all nations except the U.S. rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for a 25.2% decline to America.

“If the strength in exports cannot be sustained, China’s growth could face a ‘triple whammy’ from the prolonged contraction in the property sector, and weakened private consumption and exports,” Barclays economist Yingke Zhou said in a note.

The drop was vs. expectations for 3.0% growth following an increase of 8.3% in September.

Imports rose 1%, also less than forecasts.

Separately, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to further open the country’s vast consumer market to international businesses after Beijing and Washington their latest trade truce that was expected to help restore normalcy to global supply chains.

Addressing about 1,000 government officials, business leaders and merchants at the opening of the China International Import Export (CIIE) in Shanghai on Wednesday, the premier said Beijing remained resolute about supporting globalization and consolidating its economic ties with trading partners.

“At a time when the world economy is slowing down and international disputes are intensifying, we must all the more adhere to equal and mutually beneficial cooperation, embrace free markets and free trade, and resolve cross-border contradictions and problems through joint development,” he said.

“China is willing to work with all parties to create an open and inclusive development environment, enhance the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, ensure the stability and smooth operation of global industrial and supply chains, and better gather momentum for economic development,” Li added.

Li extended Beijing’s olive branch to multinational companies such as General Electric and Lululemon, encouraging them to bolster their operations in mainland China. [South China Morning Post]

We’ll see.

Japan’s October manufacturing PMI was 48.2, services 53.1.

The figures on September household spending weren’t that good, -0.7% from August, and up 1.8% year-over-year, far less than expected.

South Korea’s manufacturing PMI for October was 49.4.  Taiwan’s 47.7.

Street Bytes

—A chorus of leading Wall Street executives and hedge fund kings have been warning investors to brace for a pullback amid the lofty valuations.  The AI-fueled rally has also been confined to fewer and fewer shares as sentiment and technical indicators show signs of overheating.  And the government shutdown is now at the stage where it’s beginning to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.

So, no surprise stocks fell on the week, but a big recovery today on hopes there is a resolution to the shutdown. That said, the Dow Jones fell 1.2% to 46987, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and Nasdaq 3.0%.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.78%  2-yr. 3.56%  10-yr. 4.09%  30-yr. 4.70%

We got down to 4.00% on the 10-year after the dismal Challenger jobs report, but then the strong ISM services reading helped bring it back up to close unchanged on the week.

—West Texas Intermediate closed the week at $59.79.

Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Aramco, said net profit rose in the third quarter, thanks to higher production and a rise in prices, and upgraded its growth forecast for gas production capacity.

Net profit rose to $26.94 billion from $22.67 billion in the prior quarter.  The company said the results reflected higher production volumes and a rise in average crude oil prices to $70.10 a barrel from $66.70 a barrel.  Compared with last year’s third quarter, when average oil prices were $79.30 a barrel, net profit was down 2.3%.  [This is Brent crude, which is priced higher than West Texas Intermediate.]

The Saudi government owns over 95% of Aramco and quarterly dividends, $21.145 billion in Q3, comprise a large share of the kingdom’s budget (63% of revenue, last I saw).

—Bitcoin has had a tough run, hitting $125,000 on Oct. 6 but falling below $100,000 a few times this week before rallying to close (4:00 p.m. ET…it never closes officially…) at $103,758.

–The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that shortly before President Trump was to meet with Chinese President Xi in South Korea, an urgent issue emerged.  Trump wanted to discuss a request by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to allow sales of a new generation of artificial-intelligence chips to China, current and former administration officials said.

Greenlighting the export of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips would have been a seismic policy shift potentially giving China a technological accelerant.  Huang has lobbied to maintain access to the Chinese market.

But Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Trump the sales would threaten national security, saying they would boost China’s AI data-center capabilities and backfire on the U.S., the officials said.  Others against the approval included U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who helped lead trade talks.

Faced with the nearly unanimous opposition from his top advisers, Trump decided not to bring up Blackwell with Xi.

Exports of the chips to China are potentially worth tens of billions of dollars in sales and could help Nvidia keep Chinese AI companies hooked on Nvidia’s technology.

—Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end, and the 95-year-old is leaving quite a foundation for Greg Abel, the Berkshire executive who is succeeding him, Buffett remaining chairman of the board.

Berkshire reported operating third-quarter earnings of $13.5 billion as cash and equivalent holdings hit a record $381 billion, up from $344 billion in the quarter ended June 30, but there was a timing issue with over $20 billion of Treasury bill purchases. Adjust for that and cash levels stood at about $359 billion – still plenty for Abel to play with as he searches for potential acquisitions.

In October, Berkshire agreed to pay $9.7 billion to buy Occidental Petroleum’s petrochemical business, OxyChem. It was the company’s biggest deal since acquiring insurance conglomerate Alleghany in 2022.

Berkshire sold $12.5 billion of equity securities during the September quarter. It bought $6.4 billion in the same period.  American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Chevron remained its largest holdings.  Berkshire will disclose its Apple stake and the rest of the holdings in its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio in a week or so.

But Buffett and his investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Wechsler continued to find little to buy in the stock market in the third quarter.  Net stock sales are $10 billion for the year.  The lack of any new significant purchases (OxyChem not really in that category) suggests a more widespread skepticism about market valuations.

The Buffett indicator – the ratio of the stock market’s total capitalization to gross domestic product – now stands north of 220%. Buffett previously warned a ratio of above 200% was “playing with fire.”

Abel has been managing all of Berkshire’s noninsurance businesses since 2018, and the CEOs who report to him say they’ve been impressed by his business acumen, sharp advice, and availability to help when they have questions.

Berkshire said fewer catastrophic losses from hurricanes this year compared to when Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeast a year ago helped its insurance underwriting profit jump $1.6 billion to $2.369 billion.

Berkshire said its revenue only grew about 2% to $94.972 billion during the quarter as some of its businesses performed better than others.

—Ryanair Holdings posted an increase in first-half net profit, beating analyst estimates, and said that earlier-than-expected deliveries of Boeing aircraft would allow it to carry more passengers in fiscal 2026 than previously forecast.

The Irish budget airline said Monday that net profit in the first six months of its fiscal year reached 2.54 billion euros ($2.93 billion), up 42% on the year, compared with consensus of 2.50 billion euros.

The company upped its passenger outlook for fiscal 2026 to 207 million, from 206 million, citing earlier-than-expected Boeing aircraft deliveries and strong demand.

Revenue for the period was 9.82 billion euros compared with 8.69bn euros a year earlier and consensus of 9.78bn euros.

—The number of flight delays exploded this week, some 4,000+ a day into and out of the United States as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Tuesday that if the government shutdown dragged on into next week, there will be “mass chaos” for air travelers – blaming congressional Democrats for the looming catastrophe.

“If you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays,” Duffy told reporters.

“You’ll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it.”

With air traffic controllers receiving little or no pay during the shutdown, it’s no wonder they are increasingly calling in sick.

–The death toll in a catastrophic plane crash that sent a United Parcel Service aircraft into a ball of flames rose to thirteen on Thursday.

The UPS plane was departing for Honolulu from the Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport when it crashed at about 5:15 p.m. local time, Tuesday.  Video of the crash showed flames on one of the plane’s wings, and a huge fireball erupting as the aircraft hit the ground.

We then learned that moments after takeoff, the cargo plane lost its left engine…detaching from the wing while the aircraft was rolling to take off.  You can see from video that the plane also cleared a fence at the end of the runway before it crashed to the ground outside the airport.

The three crew members aboard the plane were killed in the crash.  The other fatalities were on the ground, the fireball extending for a half-mile, the UPS plane loaded with 38,000 gallons of jet fuel for the long flight.

While Gov. Andy Beshear mourned the loss of life, the plane barely missed a restaurant, a convention center and a large Ford plant.  “It could have been much worse,” he said.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

11/6…128 percent of 2024
11/5…113
11/4…84
11/3…94
11/2…114
11/1…79
10/31…124
10/30…117

—Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion (really close to $900 billion) compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader.

More than 75% of the votes cast were in favor of the unprecedented pay plan, the company said late Thursday at its annual meeting.  The outcome caps a weekslong campaign by the electric vehicle maker’s board, its CEO and prominent retail investors to build support.

The pay agreement clears a path for Musk to become the first-ever trillionaire and expand his stake in Tesla to 25% or more over the next decade.  To achieve the full payout, he’ll have to deliver on targets to significantly expand Tesla’s market value, revive its flagging car business and get the fledgling robotaxi and Optimus robotics efforts off the ground.

“It’s not just a new chapter for Tesla, it’s a new book,” Musk said at the shareholder meeting.  “And that new book is massively increasing vehicle production and ramping up Optimus production faster than anything’s ever been ramped up before in human history.”

Musk has suggested he could step down or spend more time with his other companies if he didn’t get greater control over the carmaker.  He’s now likely to remain at the helm as Tesla pursues an ambitious agenda built around driverless vehicles and artificial intelligence.

–Somewhat related to the above, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, Ford Motor executives are in active discussions about scrapping the electric version of its F-150 pickup, according to people familiar with the matter, which would make the money-losing truck America’s first major EV casualty.

The Lighting fell far short of expectations as American truck buyers skipped the electric version of the top-selling truck.  Ford has racked up $13 billion in EV losses since 2023.

In October, the first month since the end of the federal EV tax credit, Ford’s overall EV sales in the U.S. fell 24% from a year ago.  Ford dealers sold 66,000 gas-powered F-Series pickups, up a tick from a year earlier, and just 1,500 Lightnings, the fewest of any model.

Look at Tesla’s Cybertruck, admittedly not exactly apples-to-apples when compared to the F-150, but would you buy that thing?  It is the ugliest vehicle EVER!  I saw CNBC’s Phil Lebeau mention today that Cybertruck sales have been all of 16,000 when Elon Musk talked of 250,000, and I feel like a lot of that figure was sold in my area, because I see quite a few.

—Advanced Micro Devices reported better-than-expected earnings results, but its shares fell 2% at the open on Wednesday.

For the September quarter, the chip maker reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.20, compared to Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.17.  Revenue came in at $9.25 billion, which was ahead of expectations for $8.76 billion.

AMD also gave a revenue range for the current quarter with $9.6 billion at the midpoint, versus the $9.21 billion average analyst estimate.  But even after a huge runup in the stock, investors took it higher after the report.

“Our record third-quarter performance and strong fourth-quarter guidance marks a clear step up in our growth trajectory as our expanding computer franchise and rapidly scaling data center AI business drive significant revenue and earnings growth,” AMD CEO Lisa Su said in the press release.

Intel and AMD use the x86 chip architecture in making the CPU processors that act as the main computing brains for PCs and servers.

On the earnings call with analysts, Su said many customers are planning “substantially” larger CPU buildouts in the next few quarters to support higher AI demand.  She also said AMD’s AI business is on track to grow to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue by 2027.

Last month, AMD announced a long-term deal to become a key supplier to OpenAI’s AI infrastructure buildout.

—Amazon.com’s cloud unit has signed a $38 billion deal to supply a slice of OpenAI’s bottomless demand for computing power.  Amazon shares jumped 4% in response.

The ChatGPT maker will pay Amazon Web Services for access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia Corp. graphics processing units as part of a seven-year deal, the companies announced on Monday.

The agreement comes less than a week after OpenAI altered its partnership with its longtime backer Microsoft, which is no longer the startup’s exclusive cloud provider.

It is also the latest indication of OpenAI’s transition from research lab to an artificial intelligence powerhouse that has reshaped the tech industry.  The company has committed to spending $1.4 trillion on infrastructure to build and power its AI models, an unprecedented binge that has prompted concerns about an investment bubble.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said this week the company’s revenue is “well more” than reports of $13 billion a year and could reach $100 billion by 2027.

But the numbers pale in comparison with the overall infrastructure investment.  And as Barron’s Adam Clark pointed out, “The problem, and risk, is circular deals and off-balance sheet arrangements are opaque and make it almost impossible for the average investor to compare revenue with spending….

“One feature of the 2008-09 financial crisis was increasingly complex financial instruments masking the risks. When you need superintelligence just to understand the AI boom, that’s a worrying sign.”

—Palantir Technologies reported strong third-quarter earnings results on Monday afternoon, but the shares fell 7% on the open, Tuesday.

Adjusted earnings per share were 21 cents, above the Street’s estimate of 17 cents, and up from ten cents last year.  Revenue for the quarter reached $1.18 billion, ahead of expectations for $1.09 billion, and up 63% on the year.

Palantir began as a defense and intelligence contractor, but it now has customers in other parts of government and a thriving private-sector business.  It offers a platform that integrates an organization’s data, from disparate sources in various formats, into simple dashboards that use artificial intelligence to aid in decision-making.

Palantir’s U.S. business continues to see blockbuster growth, up 77% from 2024, boosted by a 121% rise in U.S. commercial sales.  U.S. commercial customers represented 34% of third-quarter company revenue, up from 25% a year ago.

Palantir projected fourth-quarter revenue of $1.33 billion, ahead of the $1.18bn Wall Street consensus, with an adjusted operating margin of 52% versus expectations for 42%.  The company said that U.S. commercial sales growth would continue to be in the triple-digits.

“These aren’t extraordinary results,” said CEO Alex Karp in the earnings call.  “These are arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered. And that’s not hyperbolic.”

But Palantir has a rather stretched valuation, trading at 248 times the adjusted earnings per share expected for the next 12 months, though it has a devoted online community of retail investors who have repeatedly shown that they will buy any dip in the share price.

Karp addressed the Wall Street bears in his letter to shareholders.  “This ascent has confounded most financial analysts and the chattering class, whose frames of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate,” he said.

“Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement.”

—Kimberly-Clark has agreed to buy Kenvue for more than $40 billion, combing the maker of Huggies diapers with the owner of Tylenol and other consumer healthcare products.

Kenvue shares rose 12%, while Kimberly-Clark’s share price fell around 15% by the close on Monday.

The deal will create a global health-and-wellness company with annual revenue of approximately $32 billion and billion-dollar brands, including Kimberly-Clark household staples such as Kleenex tissues and Cottonelle toilet paper, and Kenvue products such as Tylenol and Listerine mouthwash.

The combination will enhance Kimberly-Clark’s exposure in what is called key categories that are positioned to benefit from growth trends, as consumers increasingly give priority to health and wellness.

It comes as Kenvue is in the midst of a public-relations crisis over claims made by the Trump administration linking the use of the active ingredient in its Tylenol painkiller in pregnancy to autism.

There’s always a chance the transaction could fall apart and that ongoing Tylenol lawsuits could constitute a material adverse effect that would void a deal.  And Kenvue’s earnings have stalled.

Kenvue posted net sales of $15.44 billion in 2023, the same year it finalized its separation from Johnson & Johnson.  In 2024, the figure was $15.45 billion.  Current consensus for sales this year is $15.12 billion.

—President Trump announced a deal Thursday with drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to cut prices of their popular weight-loss drugs and expand Medicare coverage of these medications for older adults.

The negotiated deal will Medicare and Medicaid coverage for Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy, with consumers being able to purchase the drugs at discounted prices through the federal government’s direct-to-consumer website, TrumpRx, which will launch in 2026.

“For years, politicians have talked about making health care affordable,” Trump said during an Oval Office news conference announcing the price cuts.  “But my administration is actually doing it.”

The least expensive price – $149 per month – will apply to yet-to-launch oral versions of these weight-loss drugs. Lilly has sought priority Food and Drug Administration review of its oral drug, called orforglipron. [Try saying this three times fast…it’s actually a good exercise…]

As for Medicare and Medicaid coverage and pricing of the drugs, I’m not sure on how it actually works, having seen a price of $245 a month for beneficiaries who meet certain medical criteria, when it comes to co-payments.  Whatever it is, it is slated for middle of next year for these groups of patients.

—McDonald’s on Wednesday reported U.S. same-store sales that topped forecasts for the second-straight quarter as it continues to focus on value offerings amid what the company called a “challenging environment.”

The company reported U.S. same-store sales increased 2.5% over last year during the quarter, driven by higher check growth.  That’s more than the 2.2% Wall Street expected and in line with the 2.5% growth seen in the prior quarter.

Global same-store sales increased 3.6% during the quarter, in line with estimates after a 3.8% rise in Q2.

Adjusted earnings per share tallied $3.22, less than the $3.32 expected, on revenue of $7.1bn, which was in line.

“We’re fueling momentum by delivering everyday value and affordability, menu innovation, and compelling marketing that continue to bring customers through our doors,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a release.

During the third quarter, McDonald’s announced the return of the Snack Wrap and struck a deal with its U.S. franchisees to lower the cost of some combo meals as fast food companies continue to compete on broader value offerings, with consumer wallets stretched by inflation and a softening labor market.

The Street liked what it saw, and heard, and the shares rose 2%.

—Starbucks is selling a 60% stake in its Chinese operations to private equity firm Boyu Capital.  Starbucks will keep the remaining 40% through a new joint venture.  It’s been a bit of a rough ride for the coffee chain in China, with nationalism on the rise and a general reluctance to pay for the brand’s pricey lattes.

—The New York Times Company’s digital subscriptions and advertising surged in the latest quarter, leading to a 26.1% jump in adjusted operating profit compared with a year earlier, the company said on Wednesday.

The Times added 460,000 digital-only subscribers in the third quarter, the biggest three-month jump in years.  Advertising revenue rose 20.3% from a year earlier, to $98.1 million.

Total revenue was $700.8 million, up 9.5% from a year ago.  Adjusted operating profit totaled $131.4 million, which is hardly “failing,” as a certain occupant of the White House likes to say.

The Times now has 12.33 million total subscribers to all of its products, which include the news report, Cooking, Games, Wirecutter and The Athletic.

—News Corp reported revenue and profit increases for its fiscal first quarter, driven by growth at Dow Jones and the digital real estate divisions, which offset drops in the book publishing unit.

Dow Jones, which publishes the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Barron’s and other titles, reported a 6% increase in revenue, to $586 million, while segment earnings increased 10%.

Digital subscriptions at the Journal increased to 4.22 million for the quarter, compared with 4.13 million in the period that ended in June.

Revenue at the News Media group, which includes the New York Post, increased 1%.

Book-publishing revenue at HarperCollins Publishers decreased 2% to $534 million.

I love seeing all the ‘hated’ mainstream media do well…being a digital subscriber to the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Barron’s myself.

—Wall Street bonuses are projected to jump for the second year in a row as market volatility fuels trading demand and dealmaking makes its long-awaited comeback.

Investment bankers, traders and wealth-management professionals are all poised to see increases in their year-end incentive pay, according to a report Wednesday from compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc. Equity traders who help investors position their stock bets may see the biggest gains, with payouts set to rise as much as 25%, fueled by market swings.

The trends point to yet another banner year for incentive pay following 2024’s revenue rebound on Wall Street. Last year ended with strong payouts after years of restraint, as profits soared across the financial industry.

–The Bloomberg Billionaires Index had Tesla’s Elon Musk remaining the world’s richest person by far, with $469 billion as of Oct. 31.

Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison is second richest, with estimated wealth of $323 billion, up from fourth when 2025 began.  Ellison owns about 41% of the enterprise-software maker, which has prospered from renting AI services in the cloud.

Meta Platforms’ CEO Mark Zuckerberg fell to the fifth-richest, from third place in September.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, with $265 billion, jumped to third place.

Google co-founders Larry Page ($244 billion) and Sergey Brin ($228 billion) were fourth and sixth, respectively.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang ($176 billion), moved to ninth from twelfth.

Of course these figures change daily.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine:

—Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday claimed its forces defeated a team of Ukrainian special forces that were rushed to the eastern front-line hot spot of Pokrovsk in a bid to stop Russian troops from pushing farther into the city.

It later posted videos, showing two men it said were Ukrainians who surrendered in the embattled city, but both Russia and Ukraine have presented conflicting accounts of what is happening in the city.

Pokrovsk, as noted many times before, is a key transport and supply hub whose capture could unlock Russian efforts to seize the rest of the region.

Kyiv also believes its capture would help Russia in its efforts to persuade the U.S. that its military campaign is succeeding – and, therefore, that the West should acquiesce to its demands.

Ukraine’s army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Saturday that while the situation in Pokrovsk remains “hardest” for Ukrainian forces, who are trying to push Russian troops out, there is no encirclement or blockade as Moscow has maintained.

“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing. The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV operators and assault units,” Syrskyi said in a statement on Telegram.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on Monday that Pokrovsk was under severe pressure, but his military said Russian troops were not in full control of any district.  He added that Russia had deployed around 170,000 troops in Donetsk in a major push to capture the city and claim a major battlefield victory.

Zelensky has said the defense of Pokrovsk is a “priority.”

Russia said on Tuesday that its forces were tightening their encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk.

With fighting raging in the streets, the Russian Defense Ministry said its soldiers had cleared 35 buildings of Ukrainian troops.

It said Russian forces were also squeezing surrounded Ukrainian troops near the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine has denied its troops are encircled in either location.

DeepState, a Ukrainian project that maps the front line based on verified open-source images, on Tuesday showed that Russian forces had pushed further into Pokrovsk and its environs, though it showed much of it still in grey, beyond firm control of either side.

Pokrovsk had a pre-war population of some 60,000, but most civilians fled long ago.  Capturing it could give Moscow a platform to drive towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the Donetsk region which Russia wants to capture in its entirety.

Russian military blogger Rybar said on Tuesday that Moscow’s control of the town was gradually expanding but “a complete clearing of the city is still far off.”

Moscow wants Kyiv to cede the entire Donbas region as part of a peace deal, including the parts it currently does not control.

Alas, by week’s end, multiple reports from the Wall Street Journal and New York Times, among others, have Russia’s army on the verge of its biggest conquest in more than two years in Pokrovsk.

As reported by the Journal: “Russian troops now outnumber Ukrainian soldiers inside the city, and their drones dominate the skies overhead, according to Ukrainian troops there.  Military analysts say it could fall within weeks.”

—Ukrainian forces hit an important fuel pipeline in the Moscow region that supplies the Russian army, Ukraine’s military intelligence said Saturday, as Russia kept up a sustained campaign of massive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The operation was carried out late last Friday, according to a statement on the Telegram messaging channel.  The agency, which is known by its acronym HUR, described it as a “serious blow” to Russia’s military logistics.

HUR said its forces struck the Koitsevoy pipeline, which spans 250 miles and supplies the Russian army with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.

“Our strikes have had more impact than sanctions,” said Kyrylo Budanv, the head of HUR.

Ukraine overnight Wednesday also made a successful drone strike at Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery, the sixth time it’s been attacked so far this year.

Since the beginning of August, Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil-processing facilities at least 38 times, compared with 21 strikes between January and July, according to public statements and data gathered by Bloomberg.

—Ukraine plans to introduce fixed-term military contracts alongside its system of conscription, moving to address a pressing need to attract recruits and ease the strain on soldiers worn down by years of fighting.

Until now, Ukrainian soldiers have served under open-ended contracts, leaving them with no control over their future.  Enthusiasm for enlistment has waned, with Ukrainians fearful that indefinite duty amounts to a one-way ticket to the front-line.

Under the new system, both current service members and recruits will be able to sign fixed-term contracts lasting one to five years, Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said Monday as he announced the plan.

Shmyhal said that any soldier who signed a contract of two years or more would receive a one-year deferment from potential future mobilization after completing the term.

The Ukrainian Army cannot afford to discharge worn-out soldiers unless it signs up enough replacements, especially as its troops are outnumbered by the Russian forces on the battlefield.

Israel/Gaza: The repatriation of the remains of the 28 Israeli hostages continues, albeit it’s been a painfully slow process.  Israel now has received the remains of 21, including the last American.

Israel has been releasing the remains of 15 Palestinians for the return of the remains of an Israeli hostage.

Health officials in Gaza have struggled to identify bodies without access to DNA kits.  Only 75 of the (first) 225 Palestinian bodies returned since the ceasefire began had been identified, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry (Israel having turned them over without identification).

After the release of the 20 remaining living captives, Israel has released more than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving sentences for violent attacks, and more than 1,700 people who had been detained in Gaza and held without charges.

—Israeli jets struck several towns in southern Lebanon on Thursday after urging residents to leave, marking an escalation in their near-daily strikes on the country.

The airstrikes came hours after Hezbollah urged the Lebanese government not to enter negotiations with Israel.

The Israeli military has accused Hezbollah of rebuilding its capabilities almost a year after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire went into effect that ended a monthslong war.

China: President Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinpeng gave him assurances that Beijing would take no action on Taiwan as long as Trump was in power.

In his “60 Minutes” interview on Sunday, Trump said the island “never even came up as a subject” when the two leaders met last week.

Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

“You’ll find out if it happens, and [Xi] understands the answer to that,” Trump said when asked by the interviewer whether he would order U.S. forces to defend Taiwan.

“He never brought it up.  People were a little surprised at that.  He never brought it up because he understands it and he understands it very well.”

However, he declined to elaborate, noting that “I can’t give away my secrets…the other side knows.”

“But they understand what’s going to happen. And he has openly said, and his people have openly said at meetings, ‘we would never do anything while President Trump is president,’ because they know the consequences,” he said.

–Meanwhile, China has put its largest and most sophisticated aircraft carrier into active service, boosting Beijing’s quest to create a formidable oceangoing navy that can challenge U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

Xi presided over the commissioning ceremony this week for the Fujian, the country’s third aircraft carrier and the first to be fully designed and built in China.

Named after the coastal province that sits closest to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory, the Fujian features electromagnetic catapults for launching aircraft, including new early-warning radar planes that China’s other two carriers can’t deploy.

China has the world’s largest navy, with more than 370 surface ships and submarines, according to Pentagon estimates, though the U.S. still operates the most aircraft carriers of any country.

Most experts don’t believe the Fujian will be fully operational for up to a year

The name “Fujian” is a nightmare revisited for yours truly, as it was there that I met my financial Waterloo.

Venezuela: Last Friday night, aboard Air Force One, President Trump told reporters he wasn’t considering ordering military attacks in Venezuela.

Asked if reports that he was weighing airstrikes against Venezuela, Trump responded: “No, it’s not true.”

Back on Oct. 15 in the Oval Office, the president said he was eyeing ground strikes. “We are certainly looking at land now because we’ve got the sea under control,” Trump said at the time.

In June, the president stated that he would wait two weeks before deciding to take military action against Iran, then ordered bomber strikes on Iranian nuclear sites two days later.

Saturday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the U.S. military had carried out another lethal strike on alleged drug smugglers in the Caribbean, at least the 15th such strike carried out by the military in the Caribbean or eastern Pacific since early September.  Three people were killed, bringing the total to at least 64.

Asked Sunday on “60 Minutes” if the U.S. was going to war against Venezuela, Trump said: “I doubt it. I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.”

Pushed on whether the U.S. was planning any strikes on land, Trump refused to rule it out, saying: “I wouldn’t be inclined to say that I would do that… I’m not gonna tell you what I’m gonna do with Venezuela, if I was going to it or if I wasn’t going to do it.”

Tuesday, Secretary Hegseth announce yet another strike in an unspecified location off the Pacific coast of Latin America, killing two “male narco-terrorists,” Hegseth said in a post on X, the death toll at least 66 now.

Sudan: Fears are growing for thousands trapped in Sudan’s el-Fasher as only a few thousand have reached the nearest camp for displaced people in the days since Sudan’s paramilitary forces seized el-Fasher city.

The Rapid Support Forces took control of the western Darfur region last week, after ousting the rival Sudanese army from the city that was besieged for 18 months. Since then, reports and videos have circulated of RSF atrocities against civilians including beatings, killings and sexual assaults, according to testimonies by civilians and aid workers. The dead included at least 460 killed in the hospital, according to the World Health Organization.

The fall of el-Fasher marked a new turning point in the war between the RSF and Sudan’s armed forces, which erupted in April 2023.  More than 40,000 people have been killed, according to UN figures, but aid groups say the true number could be many times higher. The war has also displaced more than 14 million people and unleashed outbreaks of diseases, killing thousands.

The RSF said Thursday it has agreed to a humanitarian truce that was proposed by U.S.-led mediator group, “The Quad.”

A Sudan military official told the Associated Press that the army will only agree to a truce which includes withdrawing from civilian areas and giving up weapons.

Nigeria:  President Trump on Truth Social, Saturday:

“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities. I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!  WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!”

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu pushed back, saying in a social media statement that the characterization of Nigeria as a religiously intolerant country does not reflect the national reality.

“Religious freedom and tolerance have been a core tenet of our collective identity and shall always remain so,” Tinubu said. “Nigeria opposes religious persecution and does not encourage it.  Nigeria is a country with constitutional guarantees to protect citizens of all faiths.”

Nigeria’s population of 220 million is split almost equally between Christians and Muslims.  Christians are among those targeted by various extremist groups, including Boko Harem, but analysts say the majority of victims of armed groups are Muslims in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority north, where most attacks occur.

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 41% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 54% disapprove.  33% of independents approve (Oct. 1-16).

Rasmussen: 46% approve, 53% disapprove (Nov. 7).

A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll had President Trump’s approval rating at 41%, while 59% disapprove; the highest level of disapproval in a Post-ABC poll since January 2021, a week after the attack on the Capitol.  Trump’s support among self-identified Republicans remains strong at 86%, while 95% of Democrats disapprove.  Among independents, Trump’s approval rating is 30%, while his disapproval mark is 69%.

When asked how they would vote if the midterms were held today, 46% of registered voters say they would back the Democratic candidate in their district while 44% would support the Republican and 9% would not vote.

A new CNN/SSRS poll has Trump’s approval rating at just 37%, the worst of his second term, disapproval rating 63%.

When asked who they’d vote for in next year’s midterms, 47% of registered voters say they’d vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, while 42% prefer the Republican.  Independents break in Democrats’ favor on the generic ballot (44% to 31% for Republicans, with 19% saying they wouldn’t pick either right now).

A new national NBC News poll has Trump’s approval rating at 43%, a 4-point decrease since March, while 55% disapprove of his job performance.

On the 2026 midterm elections question, Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points, 50%-42%.  Democrats had a negligible 1-point edge, 48%-47%, in the March survey.

These polls aren’t good for the president.  Trump had to respond on Truth Social:

“So many Fake Polls are being shown by the Radical Left Media, all slanted heavily toward Democrats and Far Left Wingers. In the Fair Polls, and even the Reasonable Polls, I have the Best Numbers I have ever had and, why shouldn’t I?  I ended eight Wars, created the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country, kept Prices, Inflation, and Taxes down, and I am setting standards for Right Track / Wrong Track for a future U.S.A. Fake News will never change, they are evil and corrupt but, as I look around my beautiful surroundings, I say to myself, ‘Oh, look, I’m sitting in the Oval Office!’”

–Over the weekend, prior to the gubernatorial election in New Jersey, a few final polls were released, including a Quinnipiac University New Jersey poll that had Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 51% to 43%.  Independents were split, 47% backing Ciattarelli with 44% backing Sherrill.

But an AtlasIntel survey, out Friday night, found Sherrill with 50.2% of likely voters, compared to Ciattarelli’s 49.3%.

AtlasIntel has been lauded for having the most accurate polling of the 2020 and 2024 presidential races.

Well, Quinnipiac wasn’t far off, Sherrill with a shocking 56% to 43% win over Ciattarelli.  The night before, I thought this was going to be a 50-49 race, with recounts going on for at least a week.  And I wasn’t alone in this thinking.

Six counties that voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election flipped blue one year later, helping to cement Sherrill’s victory.  Five of those counties also backed Ciattarelli in the 2021 gubernatorial election.

And according to a CNN exit poll, Sherrill captured 94% of the Black vote and 68% of Latinos, after Trump had captured a large percentage of them in 2024.

Reminder, Ciattarelli lost to Gov. Phil Murphy by just 3 points in 2021.  But he fully embraced Trump, “100 percent,” this go around and look what it got him.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger had an even bigger win, 58%-42% over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

One exit poll had Trump’s approval rating in New Jersey at 43%, 55% disapproval.  In Virginia, the same poll had it at 41-56.  And there’s your explanation for the big Democratic wins.

–In the New York City mayoral race, an AtlasIntel poll prior to Tuesday, had Zohran Mamdani with just 41%, and Andrew Cuomo at 34%, the closest any poll has had it.  Curtis Sliwa garnered 24% in this one.

President Trump wrote on social media Monday evening: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice.  You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

Trump wrote that if Mamdani won, “it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds” to New York City, “other than the very minimum as required.”

Mamdani then won it with 50.4% of the vote, Cuomo 41.6% and Sliwa just 7.1%, with voter turnout the highest since 1969.

[Yes, as an aside, I think we can remove the label “best” from AtlasIntel after their performance in New Jersey and Gotham.]

–One more victory for the Democrats, at least for Gov. Gavin Newsom…California’s Proposition 50 redistricting (redrawing of the congressional maps) ballot measure passed, 64% to 36%.

—Tuesday evening, after New Jersey and Virginia were called, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“ ‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGT,’ according to Pollsters.”

“Pass Voter Reform, Voter ID, No Mail-In Ballots, Save our Supreme Court from ‘Packing,’ No Two State addition, etc. TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!!!”

Wednesday morning, President Trump went to Truth Social again:

“Happy Anniversary! On this day, November 5th, one year ago, we had one of the Greatest Presidential Victories in History – Such an Honor to represent our Country.  Our Economy is BOOMING, and Costs are coming way down. Affordability is our goal.  Love to the American People!

“PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump rolled to victory in 2024 promising to reduce inflation and make middle-class life more affordable. The warning to Republicans in Tuesday’s election results is that Democrats are turning the tables on affordability, especially when they steer clear of leftist cultural snares.

“Democrats had a good night Tuesday, winning governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, which they hope foreshadows the 2026 midterms.  But notice the party’s choice of nominees: Each was a cagey candidate with a centrist affect, whatever their records.  Will Democratic primary voters next year elevate similar figures?  Or will the party base be seduced by radicals like New York City’s Zohran Mamdani?….

“If Democrats can convince voters they’re a better bet for getting ahead economically, the GOP is in trouble in 2026.  President Trump’s tariffs aren’t helping.  Neither is the 3% inflation still tearing away at the earnings and the raises of American workers.”

—Asked on “60 Minutes” Sunday if he planned for the U.S. to detonate a nuclear weapon for the first time in more than 30 years, President Trump said: “I’m saying that we’re going to test nuclear weapons like other countries do, yes.”

He added: “Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it.”

Russia and China have not carried out such tests since 1990 and 1996, respectively.

Pressed further on the topic, Trump said: “They don’t go and tell you about it.”

“I don’t want to be the only country that doesn’t test,” he said, adding North Korea and Pakistan to the list of nations allegedly testing their arsenals.

But also on Sunday, Trump’s energy secretary downplayed the idea that the U.S. was planning to set off a nuclear explosion.

Chris Wright said any tests would be “non-critical explosions” on “other parts of a nuclear weapon to make sure they deliver the appropriate geometry and they set up the nuclear explosion.”

Wednesday, the U.S. fired a Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), but this had been “scheduled years in advance,” the public affairs office for Vandenberg Space Force Base in California said.

The Air Force Global Strike Command launched the GT 254 nuclear-capable missile from Vandenberg, with the test going off without a hitch, the unarmed rocket landing near the Army’s Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site in the Marshall Islands.

—President Trump on Tuesday renominated Jared Isaacman to run the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, an about-face after abruptly ending the entrepreneur’s earlier bid for the top role at the space agency.

Trump, in a Truth Social post, praised Isaacman “as an accomplished business leader, philanthropist, pilot, and astronaut.”

The president’s announcement comes about five months after he dropped support for Isaacman shortly before a Senate confirmation vote.

White House officials said at the time that NASA’s next leader needed to be in complete alignment with Trump’s agenda.  Some Republicans were upset with Isaacman’s past donations to Democrats, though he had also provided support to the GOP.

Isaacman was supported heavily by Elon Musk, and his nomination being pulled at the time was a major reason why Musk and Trump then had a falling out.

It is good Isaacman is back. He’s a winner.

—Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton, one of my faves, called the Pentagon’s policy shop a “Pigpen-like mess” during a routine nomination hearing Tuesday on Capitol Hill.

Austan Dahmer was before the Senate Armed Services Committee answering questions about how he would tackle the job of assistant secretary for strategy, plans, and forces – a job whose title and responsibilities have changed in ways that the committee was only told about on Sunday night, as reported by Defense One’s Meghann Myers.  But because Dahmer has already been performing the duties of another high-level Pentagon official – and because SecDef Hegseth has restricted communication between the department and Congress, requiring every interaction be cleared through legislative affairs – a bipartisan group of senators took the opportunity to grill Dahmer on a host of recent department moves.

Sen. Cotton listed several concerns including: A pause in Ukrainian security assistance; the uncoordinated review of the AUKUS (Australia, the UK and the U.S.) agreement; opposition to deploying more U.S. troops to the Middle East during the Iran-Israel war in June; the cancellation of a meeting among top Japanese and U.S. officials; and the recent cancellation of a rotational Army brigade deployment to Romania.

Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss) asked why the policy undersecretary’s office, led by Elbridge Colby, has been at the center of so many controversies, Dahmer blamed “fake news” and “inaccurate reporting” while claiming ignorance of details.

“This decision did not appear to reflect the policy mandate of President Trump,” Wicker said of the withdrawal of troops from Romania.  “Just two weeks ago, the president had said that troops would not be withdrawn from Europe. It is unclear to me how the move fits with the commander-in-chief’s direction.”

Meanwhile, after booting nearly all of its professional journalists from the building, the Pentagon credentialed far-right loon Laura Loomer as a reporter.  Good lord….

—Dick Cheney, one of the most powerful and polarizing vice presidents in U.S. history and a leading advocate for the invasion of Iraq, died Monday night at the age of 84 due to complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease, according to a statement from his family.

“For decades, Dick Cheney served our nation, including as White House Chief of Staff, Wyoming’s Congressman, Secretary of Defense, and Vice President of the United States,” the statement said. “Dick Cheney was a great and good man who taught his children and grandchildren to love our country, and to live lives of courage, honor, love, kindness, and fly fishing.  We are grateful beyond measure for all Dick Cheney did for our country.  And we are blessed beyond measure to have loved and been loved by this noble giant of a man.”

Cheney was both quiet and forceful, serving as defense chief during the Persian Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush before returning to public life as vice president under Bush’s son, George W. Bush.

Cheney was, in effect, the chief operating officer of the younger Bush’s presidency.  He had a hand, often a commanding one, in implementing decisions most important to the president and some of surpassing interest to himself – all while living with decades of heart disease and, post-administration, a heart transplant.  Cheney consistently defended the extraordinary tools of surveillance, detention and inquisition employed in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Year after leaving office, he became a target of President Trump, especially after daughter Liz Cheney became the leading Republican critic and examiner of Trump’s desperate attempts to stay in power after his election defeat and his actions in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.

“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who was a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” Cheney said in a television ad for his daughter. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He is a coward.”

Dick Cheney, in a twist the Democrats of his era never could have fathomed, said last year he was voting for Kamala Harris.

A survivor of five heart attacks, Cheney long thought he was living on borrowed time and declared in 2013 he now awoke each morning “with a smile on my face, thankful for the gift of another day.”

His vice presidency defined by the age of terrorism, Cheney disclosed that he had had the wireless function of his defibrillator turned off years earlier out of fear terrorists would remotely send his heart a fatal shock.

Cheney used to joke about his outsize reputation as a stealthy manipulator.

“Am I the evil genius in the corner that nobody ever sees come out of his hole?” he asked.  “It’s a nice way to operate, actually.”

Cheney was a hard-liner on Iraq and he was proved wrong on point after point in the Iraq War, without ever losing the conviction that he was essentially right.

He alleged links between the 2001 attacks against the United States and prewar Iraq that didn’t exist.  He said U.S. troops would be welcomed as liberators and they weren’t.

He declared the Iraqi insurgency in its last throes in May 2005, back when 1,661 U.S. service members had been killed, not even half the toll by war’s end.

Well into Bush’s second term, Cheney’s clout waned, checked by the courts of shifting political realities.

Cheney sought to broaden presidential authority and accord special harsh treatment to suspected terrorists.  His hawkish positions on Iran and North Korea were not fully embraced by Bush.

Cheney operated much of the time from undisclosed locations in the months after the 2001 attacks, kept apart from Bush to ensure one or the other survived any follow-up assault on the country’s leadership.

With Bush out of town on that fateful day, Cheney was a steady presence in the White House, at least until Secret Service agents lifted him off his feet and carried him away.

From the beginning, Cheney and Bush struck an odd bargain.  Cheney would shelve any ambitions he might have had to succeed Bush, and in return the vice president was accorded power in some ways comparable to the presidency itself.

Cheney was known for being discreet and loyal to a fault.

As he put it: “I made the decision when I signed on with the president that the only agenda I would have would be his agenda, that I was not going to be like most vice presidents – and that angling, trying to figure out how I was going to be elected president when his term was over with.”

But Cheney came to be seen as a thin-skinned Machiavelli orchestrating a bungled response to criticism of the Iraq war.  It didn’t help that when he shot a hunting companion in the torso, neck and face with an errant shotgun blast in 2006 that he was slow to disclose the extraordinary turn of events.

The victim, his friend Harry Whittington, recovered and quickly forgave him.

Cheney was born in Lincoln, Nebraska, and was raised in Casper, Wyoming, where he would serve six terms in congress as the state’s lone representative in the House.

In 1989, he became defense secretary under the first President Bush and led the Pentagon during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War that drove Iraq’s troops from Kuwait.

Former President George W. Bush praised his vice president:

“The death of Richard B. Cheney is a loss to the nation and a sorrow to his friends,” the 43rd president began in a lengthy statement Tuesday morning.  “Laura and I will remember Dick Cheney for the decent, honorable man that he was.  History will remember him as among the finest public servants of his generation – a patriot who brought integrity, high intelligence, and seriousness of purpose to every position he held….

“Dick was a calm and steady presence in the White House amid great national challenges,” Bush wrote.  “I counted on him for his honest, forthright counsel, and he never failed to give his best.  He held to his convictions and prioritized the freedom and security of the American people.  For those two terms in office, and throughout his remarkable career, Dick Cheney’s service always reflected credit on the country he loved.

“Dick’s love for America was second only to his family. Laura and I have shared our deepest sympathies with Vice President Cheney’s wife Lynne and their daughters and grandchildren of whom he was so deeply proud….”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Richard B. Cheney had one of the great American careers in government, and one unsung contribution was his role in rescuing the Iraq war from defeat with the promotion of the 2007 ‘surge’ of U.S. troops.  The former Vice President, who died Monday at age 84, persuaded doubters in the White House, including President George W. Bush.

“The Washington consensus at the time wanted a Vietnam-like withdrawal.  A commission of Beltway worthies recommended it.  But Gen. David Petraeus and former Gen. Jack Keane, among others, pushed the troop surge to carry out a counterterrorism strategy to clear and secure neighborhoods.

“Cheney pressed the case inside the White House, despite doubters on Mr. Bush’s staff and in the State Department.  Cheney wrote in his memoir of bringing Gen. Keane to meet privately with Mr. Bush to make the case that the President wasn’t hearing from his advisers.

“The surge defeated the Iran-backed Shiite insurgents and Sunni diehards, making it possible for the nascent Iraqi government to succeed with a much-reduced U.S. troop presence. It did so successfully until Barack Obama withdrew all U.S. troops in 2011, which led to the rise of Islamic State and the return of U.S. forces.

“We mention this episode because the legacy of the Iraq war is more complicated than Cheney’s critics allow.  The invasion in 2003 had the support of most of Washington, including Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.  They and others turned against the war when the going got tough, and the Bush Administration mismanaged the occupation in many ways.

“But whatever his private doubts, Cheney took the heat for supporting the war in public and kept his eye on being able to leave Iraq with a stable government.  The result would have been much worse without him….

“It’s hard to believe now, but Cheney was once the sort of Republican the Washington establishment loved – smart, thoughtful, conservative but not histrionic about it, a man of Wyoming via Wisconsin.  That all changed with 9/11 and the Bush Presidency, when Cheney became Darth Vader, Bush’s Rasputin, the man who supposedly backed the war to enrich his former employer, Halliburton.  It was all a vicious distortion, though an omen of the vitriol that now dominates our politics.

“Dick Cheney’s contributions in those years were invaluable, and their legacy continues today.  He played a crucial role in building the antiterror policy architecture that has kept the U.S. safe – taking the war to the terrorists overseas, pre-emptive killing of killers, interrogations to yield intelligence, and more.

“Every President since has benefited, and all Americans are safer because of it. The U.S. could use leaders of his competence and steely principle today.”

[Ed. For the record, a combined 6,900 U.S. soldiers were killed in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, with tens of thousands seriously wounded, both mentally and physically.]

—Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she won’t run for reelection and plans to leave her seat in Congress at the end of this term.

Pelosi became the first woman to be elected speaker of the House in 2007 and is viewed as one of the most significant congressional party leaders in U.S. history.

She turns 86 next March.

—The death toll in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa rose to 32 (43 in Haiti).  It’s a desperate situation in the western region and it will be a painfully slow recovery for the island nation.

The UN Development Program estimates that Melissa flung nearly 5 million tons of debris across western Jamaica last week and warned it is preventing crews from delivering aid and restoring critical services quickly.

The amount of debris would fill some 480,000 standard truckloads.

The storm ripped the roofs off 120,000 structures, affecting 600,000 people.

—Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of emergency on Thursday after Typhoon Kalmaegi killed at least 188 people and left another 135 missing in central provinces in the deadliest natural disaster to hit the country this year, as the storm then hit Vietnam, where it has killed at least five and left widespread damage across the country’s central region.

In the Philippines, floodwater described as unprecedented rushed through Cebu province’s towns and cities this week, sweeping away cars, riverside shanties and even massive shipping containers.

And now the country is bracing for another storm, Typhoon Fung-wong (or Uwan), which is scheduled to make landfall late Sunday or early Monday, affecting the densely populated capital region of Manila.

—Japan deployed troops to the country’s rugged north on Wednesday to help trap bears after local authorities said besieged communities were struggling to cope with an unprecedented wave of attacks.

The operation began in Kazuno, a small town nestled among forested mountains that has seen a sharp rise in bear sightings.  For weeks, residents have been urged to avoid the thick woods and stay indoors after dark to keep clear of bears foraging near homes for food.

“Even if just temporary, the SDF’s help is a big relief,” said Yasuhito Kitakata, who oversees the town’s bear department.  “I used to think bears would always run away when they heard noise, but now they actually come toward you.  They’re truly frightening animals,” he added.

There have been more than 100 bear attacks with a record 12 people killed across Japan since April. Two-thirds of those deaths were in Akita prefecture, where Kazuno is located.

In Akita authorities say bear sightings have jumped six-fold this year to more than 8,000, prompting its governor to request help from the Self-Defense Forces last week.

Twelve deaths! Scores seriously injured.  These are both black and brown bears, the latter rather massive.  The area is known for having sweet apples, so they come around foraging for food, especially before they go into hibernation. [Reuters]

–I saw a sad item today…after 208 years, the Farmers’ Almanac said its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today’s “chaotic media environment.”  Access to the online version will cease next month.

As a kid I would pour through the Almanac’s long-term weather forecasts, looking for potential dates where major snowstorms would be a possibility in my area.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4006
Oil $59.79

Bitcoin: $103,758 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.08; Diesel: $3.71* [$3.10 – $3.56 yr. ago]

*Interesting the price is rising, though far from danger levels.  I list it because the price of diesel impacts the cost for your goods at the grocery and drug stores, for one.  It peaked at $5.81 on June 19, 2022, and was a major factor in the CPI reading of 9.1% that very same month!

And that’s why I list the price of diesel every week, Charlie Brown….

Returns for the week 11/3-11/7

Dow Jones  -1.2%  [46987]
S&P 500  -1.6%  [6728]
S&P MidCap  -0.1%
Russell 2000  -1.9%
Nasdaq  -3.0%  [23004]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-11/7/25

Dow Jones +10.4%
S&P 500  +14.4%
S&P MidCap  +3.9%
Russell 2000  +9.1%
Nasdaq   +19.1%

Bulls 59.3
Bears 14.8

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore