For the week 12/15-12/19

For the week 12/15-12/19

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,391

President Donald Trump delivered a stirring 18-minute address on Wednesday night in prime time, bashing Joe Biden and praising his own policy achievements in his first year back in office.

“One year ago, our country was dead. We were absolutely dead,” Trump said. “Our country was ready to fail.  Totally fail. Now we’re the hottest country anywhere in the world.”

In what came as a relief to his advisers and GOP officials, Trump in his speech did not repeat his previous claim that concern about affordability is a “Democratic hoax.”  At one point, Trump delivered a line with a message White House officials have urged him to lean into: The Trump administration has more work to do to get costs down.

“It’s not done yet,” Trump said, referring to falling grocery prices.  “But boy, are we making progress. Nobody can believe what’s going on.”

OK, to be honest I thought I was watching James Austin Johnson play Trump on SNL.  There were quite a few exaggerations, like “inflation was the worst in 48 years” when Trump began his second term in January.  [It was 3%.]  And saying he had cut drug prices by 400, 500 or 600 percent, a neat trick if you can pull it off.

Trump’s approval ratings reached their lowest levels of his second term late last month, though seem to be rebounding ever so slightly.  A reading on consumer confidence today had it at near-record lows.

Last Saturday night into Sunday was rather depressing if you were following the news, with the shooting at Brown University and then learning of the terror attack in Australia on the first night of Hanukkah targeting Jews.  I’ve been to Bondi Beach, a terrific spot, with its sweeping promenade and wide expanse, it’s a magnet for locals and tourists alike.  It’s sad it’s now known for such evil for generations to come.  Our prayers go out to the victims and their families in both tragedies.

Wall Street and the Economy

As for the search for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon put his thumb on the scale last week after President Trump said he was looking at either Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Hassett would likely move quickly to lower short-term interest rates, in line with what Trump has said he wants from the Fed, Dimon said, according to people familiar with his remarks.

But because the market would see Hassett as overly close with Trump, it may not respond by lowering long-term rates alongside Fed rate cuts, Dimon added.

The Fed controls short-term interest rates, but long-term rates such as the 10-year Treasury are set by the markets.  The 10-year yield had risen from 4.0 to 4.2% (before this week’s rally) since Bloomberg reported in late November that Hassett was the frontrunner.

“Kevin Warsh would make a great chairman,” Dimon said at an annual asset-management industry event.  But he did say he’d be fine with either man.

The Journal said in its report that Trump interviewed Warsh a week ago Wednesday at the White House for 45 minutes and the president pressed Warsh on whether he could trust him to support interest-rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank, according to people familiar with the meeting.

“He thinks you have to lower interest rates,” Trump said of Warsh.  “And so does everybody else that I’ve talked to.”

Asked where he wants interest rates to be a year from now, Trump said, “1% and maybe lower than that.”  He said rate cuts would help the U.S. Treasury reduce the costs of financing $30 trillion in government debt.

“We should have the lowest interest rates in the world,” he said.

Trump on Wednesday then interviewed Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said in an interview before that there was still scope for the central bank to cut interest rates because the labor market was “very soft.”  But he stressed that there was “no rush” for the Fed to do so.

And then we learned Trump is interviewing BlackRock’s Rick Rieder at Mar-a-Lago this weekend.

As for the economic data, we had a jobs report for November, nonfarm payrolls increasing 64,000, a little more than expected, but hardly robust and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, highest since July 2021.

And then Thursday the government released the consumer price data for last month, and while it didn’t release a month-over-month figure due to data not being collected for October owing to the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonetheless said prices increased just 0.2% September to November, and headline CPI was 2.7% vs. expectations for 3.1%, while on core, ex-food and energy, it was 2.6%, lowest since 2021 and compared with consensus of 3.0%.

Stocks soared at the open Thursday, but then many economists and market watchers said, ‘hold on here.’

The shutdown disrupted data collection for November as well as October and certain quirks were expected to have artificially dragged down inflation for that period.  All of the November data was collected after the government reopened in mid-November, which meant more of the prices came during “Black Friday” sales than they would in a normal year.

As the New York Times reported, Alan Detmeister, a former Fed economist now at UBS, said prior to the release that the report would be a “very poor reflection of reality.”

Which echoed a warning from Fed Chair Powell, who said at a news conference last week that the incoming data, including the jobs report, should be viewed with a “skeptical eye.”

Bottom line, we aren’t going to receive accurate month-to-month (and year-to-year) comparisons until probably January’s dataset.

But the data, for now, does give the Fed ammunition for future rate cuts should the early readings in 2026 confirm a trend.

One more…existing-home sales for November increased 0.5% over October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million; sales falling 1% year-on-year.

The median existing-home price for all housing types was $409,200, up 1.2% from a year ago and a record for November. [National Association of Realtors]

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is 3.5%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.21%.

A light week coming up, as you’d expect.

Europe and Asia

Eurostat released the November inflation readings for the euro area, 2.1%, unchanged from October and vs. 2.2% a year ago.  Ex-food and energy the figure was 2.4% vs. 2.7% in Nov. 2024.

Germany 2.6%, France 0.8%, Italy 1.1%, Spain 3.2%, Netherlands 2.6%, Ireland 3.1%.

The European Central Bank on Thursday then kept its policy rate steady and revised upwards some of its growth and inflation projections, a move that probably closes the door to further cuts in borrowing costs in the near term.

The more upbeat outlook has already led investors to draw a line under an easing cycle that saw the ECB halve its policy rate from 4% to 2% in the year to last June.

We had flash PMI readings for December in the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global / Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The composite PMI was 51.9 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  The manufacturing index was at 49.7, a 10-month low, with services at 52.6.

Germany: manufacturing 49.4; services 52.6
France: mfg. 49.7; services 50.2

UK: mfg. 51.8 (15-mo. high); services 52.1

Separately, industrial production for October in the EA20 rose 0.8% from September, up 2.0% from a year ago.

Britain: The UK’s CPI report for November showed prices rising 3.2%, which was compared with October’s 3.6%, allowing the Bank of England to then cut interest rates the next day to 3.75%, the lowest level in almost three years, though further reductions are set to be a “closer call,” the BOE said.

It was a knife-edge vote, 5-4, in favor of the cut, reflecting concerns over rising unemployment and weak economic growth.

Inflation is now expected to fall “closer to 2%” – the Bank’s target – next year, which is earlier than previously forecast.  However, the economy is predicted to see zero growth in the final few months of this year.

“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward but with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call,” said the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on key economic data for November, and it wasn’t good.  Industrial production rose 4.8% year-on-year, the weakest pace since Aug. 2024 and missing consensus.

Retail sales grew 1.3%, their weakest pace since Dec. 2022, when the world’s second-largest economy ended pandemic restrictions, well below 2.9% in October and forecasts for a 2.8% gain.

Fixed asset investment year-to-date fell 2.6%.

Car sales slumped 8.5%, the steepest decline in 10 months.

The unemployment rate was 5.1%.

Japan’s flash December PMI reading on manufacturing was 49.7, with services at 52.5.

But November exports rose 6.1% year-on-year, marking a third consecutive monthly gain and surpassing market forecasts.  Shipments to the U.S. climbed 8.8%, the first increase in eight months.

November inflation rose 2.9%, 3% ex-food and energy.

But the big news in Japan this week concerned the Bank of Japan, which, as expected, raised interest rates on Friday to levels unseen in 30 years, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support and near-zero borrowing costs.

The central bank also signaled its readiness to continue raising rates by offering a slightly more upbeat view on the growth and inflation outlook, underscoring its conviction Japan was on course to stably hit its 2% inflation target backed by wage gains.

But the yen fell after Governor Kazuo Ueda offered few hints on how far the BOJ could eventually raise rates, saying only the pace and timing of further hikes will depend on how the economy reacts to each policy shift.

The BOJ raised short-term interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% in the first increase since January. The decision was made by a unanimous vote.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped to a 26-year peak (2.01%).

The central bank’s decision to raise rates means the cost of servicing Japan’s public debt, the highest in the developed world, will become higher.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government just pushed through a $117 billion stimulus package, which includes items like subsidies for households, more money for Japan’s military, and investments in the semiconductor and shipbuilding industries.

Street Bytes

Another mixed week with the Dow Jones falling 0.7% to 48134, but the S&P rising a mighty 0.1% and Nasdaq 0.5%.

U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.60%  2-yr. 3.48%  10-yr. 4.15%  30-yr. 4.83%

In the end, little change in yields this week.

Ford Motor said Monday it will take a $19.5 billion writedown and is killing several electric-vehicle models, in the most dramatic example yet of the auto industry’s retreat from battery-powered models in response to the Trump administration’s policies and weakening EV demand.

The Dearborn, Mich.-based company said it will stop making the F-150 Lightning in its electric vehicle form, but will pivot to producing an extended-range electric model, a version of a hybrid vehicle called EREV, which uses a gas-powered generator to recharge the battery.  The company is also scrapping a next-generation electric truck, codenamed the T3, as well as planned electric commercial vans.

“When the market really changed over the last couple of months, that was really the impetus for us to make the call,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told Reuters in an interview.

Ford said it will pivot hard into gas and hybrid models, and eventually hire thousands of workers, even though there will be some layoffs at a jointly owned Kentucky battery plant in the near term.  The company expects its global mix of hybrids, extended-range EVs and pure EVs to reach 50% by 2030, from 17% today.

Ford will spread out the writedown, taken primarily in the fourth quarter and continuing through next year and into 2027, the company said.  About $8.5 billion is related to canceling planned EV models. Around $6 billion is tied to the dissolution of a battery joint venture with South Korea’s SK On, and $5 billion on what Ford called “program-related expenses.”

Warner Bros Discovery’s board rejected Paramount Skydance’s $104.8 billion hostile bid on Wednesday, saying it failed to provide adequate financing assurances.

In a letter to shareholders, disclosed in a regulatory filing, the board wrote that Paramount had “consistently misled” Warner Bros shareholders that its $30-per-share cash offer was fully guaranteed, or “backstopped,” by the Ellison family, led by billionaire and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

“It does not, and never has,” the board wrote of the guarantees of Paramount’s offer, noting that the offer posed “numerous, significant risks.”

Warner Bros’ board also said it found Paramount’s offer “inferior” to the merger agreement with Netflix’s.  The streaming giant’s $27.75 per share offer for Warner Bros’ film and television studios, its library and the HBO Max streaming service is a binding agreement that requires no equity financing and has robust debt commitments, the board wrote.

Paramount last week took its case directly to Warner Bros shareholders, arguing that it has arranged “air-tight financing” to support its bid, with $41 billion in new equity assured by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital, and $54 billion of debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi and Apollo.

The Warner Bros Discovery board countered on Wednesday that Paramount’s most recent offer includes an equity commitment “for which there is no Ellison family commitment of any kind,” but rather the backing of “an unknown and opaque” Lawrence J. Ellison Revocable Trust, whose assets and liabilities are not publicly disclosed and are subject to change.

“Despite having been told repeatedly by WBD how important a full and conditional financing commitment from the Ellison family was…the Ellison family has chosen not to backstop the PSKY offer,” the Warner Bros board wrote.  “A revocable trust is no replacement for a secured commitment by a controlling shareholder.”

Netflix’s offer is backed by a public company with a market cap in excess of $400 billion with an investment grade balance sheet, the Warner board noted.

The company has told Warner Bros it would keep releasing the studio’s films in cinemas in a bid to ease fears that its deal would eliminate another studio and major source of theatrical films, according to people familiar with the matter.

Paramount, by contrast, has a $15 billion market capitalization and a credit rating “a notch above ‘junk,’” Warner Bros noted on Wednesday.

Separately, Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is exiting from the takeover battle.

Affinity Partners emerged this month as a participant in Paramount’s bid.

Paramount’s tender offer is set to expire on Jan. 8, so it will have until then to make a decision on whether to improve it.

–Micron Technology reported better-than-expected earnings results Wednesday after the close and the shares surged 10% in Thursday trading.

For the November quarter, the chip company reported earnings per share of $4.78, compared to the Street’s estimate of $3.96. Revenue came in at $13.6 billion, also above analysts’ expectations of $12.9 billion.

And guidance was strong. For the current quarter, Micron forecasts a revenue range with a midpoint of $18.7 billion, also above the Street’s $14.3 billion.

“We anticipate our business performance to continue strengthening through fiscal 2026,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in the earnings release. “We are investing to support our customers growing need for memory and storage.”

Micron is a leader in the market for dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, used in desktop computers and servers, and for flash memory, found in smartphones and solid-state hard drives.  It has also become a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, for AI servers.

On a call with analysts, Micron management said the market for HBM memory will grow from $35 billion this year to $100 billion in 2028.  The company said the supply of memory chips will be “substantially short” of demand for the “foreseeable future.”

In other words, look for rising prices.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has an $800 billion valuation following a recent secondary sale and the private company is inching towards an initial public offering at some point in 2026, though SpaceX has yet to respond to requests for the timing of a long-anticipated IPO.

It did however tell employees in an internal memo that it’s preparing for a possible public offering in 2026 that would be aimed at funding an “insane flight rate” for its developmental Starship rocket, artificial intelligence data centers in space and a base on the moon.

SpaceX doesn’t report its financial results, but Musk has said he expects it to generate around $15.5 billion in revenue this year.  An $800 valuation (after the secondary was priced at $421 a share) would boost Musk’s wealth by roughly $160 billion.  He owns about 40% of the company.

SpaceX, the world’s busiest rocket launcher, accounts for more than half of global orbital launches.  Most of its value is tied up in Starlink, its space-based broadband service that provides high-speed internet connections to more than eight million customers.

The company then said it was entering a regulatory quiet period, a step towards an IPO.

SpaceX told employees in an internal email to refrain from commenting on, discussing or otherwise pumping up the company’s plans for a public offering.

The restriction covers social media, interviews, conferences and appearances.

But the timing of the IPO and the corresponding valuation is uncertain, and the company can still decide not to move forward.

Having a so-called quiet period ensures investors have equal access to information.

So we await more news in the first quarter.

TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

12/18…112 percent of 2024
12/17…107
12/16…85
12/15…94
12/14…119
12/13…81
12/12…102
12/11…120

FedEx reported fiscal second-quarter results after the close Thursday, with adjusted earnings per share of $4.82 from sales of $23.5 billion.  The Street was looking for EPS of $4.12, from $22.8 billion in sales.

Cost reductions and higher U.S. shipment volumes helped the results.

Looking ahead, FedEx expects sales growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted earnings per share of $17.80 to $19.  That’s marginally better than September, when FedEx told investors to expect fiscal 2026 sales to rise 4% to 6% with adjusted earnings per share of $17.20 to $19. The midpoint of that range, $18.10, was slightly below the $18.60 the Street was forecasting at the time, now it’s $18.30.

–According to an explosive report from Reuters, Meta knows Chinese scammers are bilking users out of billions of dollars – but has allowed them to keep operating rather than risk its profits.

In 2024 alone, Meta earned more than $3 billion – or 19% of its total $18 billion advertising haul – in China from scam advertisements, porn, illegal gambling and other shady sources, according to documents obtained by Reuters.

That’s despite the fact that China bans its own citizens from using Facebook and Instagram.

Meta knows Chinese scammers are bilking users out of billions of dollars – but has allowed them to keep operating rather than risk its profits, according to the report.

Meta initially took steps to combat scams, creating an anti-fraud team focused on China.  By the second half last year, it had reduced revenue from Chinese scams to 9%.

But the anti-fraud team was disbanded as part of an internal shakeup that included direct feedback from Mark Zuckerberg, the report said.

One late 2024 document said the China anti-fraud was “asked to pause” its work “as a result of Integrity Strategy pivot and follow-up from Zuck.”

By midway through 2025, revenue from scam ads had spiked again to constitute about 16% of Meta’s overall haul from China, the report said.

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew told employees on Thursday that the company’s U.S. operations will be housed in a new joint venture.

The entity is named TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC.  As part of the venture, Chew said the company has signed agreements with the three managing investors: Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi-based MGX.  The deal’s closing date is expected to be Jan. 22.

Chew noted that the new TikTok joint venture would be “majority owned by American investors, governed by a new seven-member majority-American board of directors, and subject to terms that protect Americans’ data and U.S. national security.”

In addition to being an investor, Oracle will serve as the “trusted security partner” in charge of auditing and validating that it complies with “agreed upon National Security Terms,” the memo said.  Sensitive U.S. data will be stored in Oracle’s U.S.-based cloud computing data centers, Chew wrote.

Medline, the biggest IPO of the year, saw its shares rise 40% on Wednesday.  The medical supply giant raised $6.26 billion in the offering, pricing it at $29 each.  At the close of trading the first day, the market cap was over $50 billion.

Private equity giants Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman took a majority stake in the company in 2021, valuing it at $30 billion.

In the first nine months of 2025, Medline’s revenue totaled $20.6 billion, up from $18.7bn in the same period last year, with net income totaling $1.02 billion, up from 977 million a year ago.

Bankers and investors are bracing for a slate of blockbuster listings in 2026.

General Mills’ push to cut prices is starting to bear fruit. The Cheerios maker said Wednesday that shoppers are responding to lower prices across its grocery offerings, from Pillsbury refrigerated dough to fruit snacks and Progresso soup.

The company has cut prices across roughly two-thirds of its North America grocery products this year, hoping to win over budget-conscious consumers.  General Mills said the effort is helping to boost sales volumes, though many consumers remain stressed.

General Mills said that it is tracking a shift among lower-income and middle-income consumers this year, as they purchase a greater portion of their food on promotion.  Consumers earning under $100,000 a year are particularly stretched.

“When there is a discount, we see them buying more because they’re financially strained,” said CEO Jeff Harmening.

The cereal maker reported quarterly net income of $413 million, with adjusted earnings of $1.10 a share, analysts’ projections at $1.03

Net sales fell 7% to $4.9 billion, also beating estimates.

For fiscal 2026, GIS forecast net sales to be down 1% to up 1%, and adjusted earnings per share to be down 10% to 15%.

The shares rose about 3% on the news.

–According to a recent Gallup survey from data gathered in August, Generative AI in the American workplace is rising modestly.

Those who said they use AI application at least a few times a week rose from 19% to 23% from roughly January to June, “while daily use moved less, ticking up from 8% to 10% during the same period,” Gallup research associate Andy Kemp writes.

Use it how?  “More than six in 10 U.S. employees who used AI at work reported using chatbots or virtual assistants.  AI writing and editing tools were the next most commonly used tools (36%), followed by AI coding assistants (14%),” Kemp reports.  However, while more may be using AI, “What employees reported using AI for did not change meaningfully from Gallup’s initial measure in Q2 2024,” Gallup notes.

But the trend may not be so clear-cut. Indeed, “Investors expect AI use to soar.  That’s not happening,” the Economist reported just before Thanksgiving.  Stanford researchers recently found AI use fell 10 percentage points (46% to 36%) from June to December.  The Economist also reported “Ramp, a fintech firm, finds that in early 2025 AI use soared at American firms to 40%, before levelling off.”  Meanwhile nationwide, “The share of workers who use AI every day is still pretty small – just 10% in the third quarter” of 2025, Axios reports off the new Gallup polling.

The Economist does point out, “history suggests that technology tends to spread in fits and starts.  Consider use of the computer within American households, where the speed of adoption slowed in the late 1908s. This was a mere blip before the 1990s, when they invaded American homes.”

Such questions are important because as the Economist wrote, it’s nothing less than “the most important question in determining whether or not the world is in an AI bubble.  From today until 2030 big tech firms will spend $5tr on infrastructure to supply AI services. To make those investments worthwhile, they will need on the order of $650bn a year in AI revenues, according to JPMorgan Chase, up from about $50 billion a year today.  People paying for AI in their personal lives will probably buy only a fraction of what is ultimately required. Businesses must do the rest.” [Defense One]

President Trump is dealing with a policy split within the GOP over his recent executive order to impose a national standard for AI, potentially undermining states’ laws that have already been in place.

The president argued the country needs to be unified on AI when signing the order last week, comparing the U.S. with China’s unification on the issue.

But that has added to fissures within the party, with some Republicans such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis arguing it gives in to the wishes of Big Tech.

“The rise of AI is the most significant economic and cultural shift occurring at the moment; denying the people the ability to channel these technologies in a productive way via self-government constitutes federal government overreach and lets technology companies run wild,” DeSantis said on X last week.

Nike shares fell after fiscal second-quarter results presented a muddled picture.  The company topped earnings and revenue expectations, but the shares dropped on investors’ disappointment over declining profits and lackluster sales in China.

Revenue of $12.4 billion rose 1% year over year in the quarter ended Nov. 30, better than projections for $12.2 billion.  From a regional standpoint, North America and Europe, Middle East, and Africa led the revenue improvement, up 9% and 3%, respectively, from a year ago. Greater China sales, however, were down 17%, accelerating from the first quarter’s 9% decline.  Converse brand revenue fell 30% from a year ago.

The company posted adjusted earnings of 53 cents a share, also beating the Street’s estimates for 37 cents.  But the quarter’s earnings were 32% lower than they were a year ago.  Net income of $800 million also fell 32%.

Investors didn’t like that gross margin fell three percentage points, primarily due to higher tariffs in North America.

“NIKE is in the middle innings of our comeback. We are making progress in the areas we prioritized first and remain confident in the actions we’re taking to drive the long-term growth and profitability of our brands,” new CEO Elliott Hill said on a call with investors.

Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share to be below this year’s figures in 2026 and revised its 2025 revenue outlook.

The company reiterated its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance of $3 to $3.15 a share. It guided for 2025 revenue of $62 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $61 billion to $64 billion.  Analysts are at $3.13 a share and revenue of $62.5 billion.

Pfizer expects 2026 revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.80 to $3.00 a share.  Wall Street is forecasting 2026 revenue of $61.1 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.05 a share.

The company expects 2026 revenue from its Covid-19 products to be $1.5 billion lower than what it had expected in 2025 and sees a year-over-year negative revenue hit of $1.5 billion due to the loss of exclusivity of certain products.

Pfizer has seen declining demand for its Covid-19 vaccine and antiviral drug in the years following the peak of the pandemic.

President Trump signed an executive order directing his administration to move cannabis into a less restrictive federal category, setting in motion a regulatory shift that could alter the legal and commercial landscape for the drug nationwide.

“We have people begging for me to do this, people that are in great pain for decades,” Trump said.  “This action has been requested by American patients suffering from extreme pain, incurable diseases, aggressive cancers, seizure disorders, neurological problems, and more.”

The order instructs the Justice Department to begin the steps needed to shift cannabis to Schedule III, a tier reserved for drugs with accepted medical uses and lower abuse potential.  Marijuana is currently labeled Schedule I, the government’s most restrictive class, alongside substances such as heroin and LSD.

iRobot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and agreed to be taken over by its main supplier on Sunday, two years after a deal with Amazon.com.

The Massachusetts-based consumer robotics company said in a statement that it would enter a restructuring agreement giving primary contract manufacturer Picea 100% of the equity interests in the company. It owes $352 million to Picea and nearly $91 million of that debt is past due, according to iRobot.

iRobot stock plummeted nearly 73% to $1.18 on Monday. The move caps a dramatic fall from grace for the company – iRobot’s market capitalization has plunged from a peak of $4.53 billion in January 2021 to $137.5 million at Friday’s close.

Intense competition from abroad and tariffs have been among the macroeconomic headwinds that have hit iRobot in recent years.  Amazon scrapped its $1.7 billion deal to buy the company in January 2024, citing regulatory pushback from the European Union.

The good news for Roomba owners is that iRobot doesn’t expect the devices to “brick” – referring to when tech stops working after a company goes under.

Consumers have been asking what will happen to their robot, if the app will still work, and if the warranty will stay in place, iRobot’s senior director of corporate communications Michele Szynal said.

“Yes, yes and yes: It is business as usual,” she told Barron’s.  “iRobot is here to stay, and we expect no disruptions to our operations.”

Picea, like iRobot, makes robotic vacuum cleaners, operating out of China and Vietnam.

Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that owns President Trump’s Truth Social platform, struck a strange deal to expand into nuclear fusion by buying TAE Technologies for $6 billion in stock.

If approved, the combined company would start building a 50-megawatt utility-scale fusion power plant next year.  They are looking for a site and planning additional fusion power plants.  Fusion is a futuristic technology that’s not considered commercially viable yet.

But TAE gives Trump Media a new business line that could eventually produce substantial revenue.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences said on Wednesday that it would move the Academy Awards to YouTube under an exclusive five-year deal beginning in 2029.  The agreement will end an exclusive run on ABC that started in 1976.

In choosing YouTube as its distribution partner – Hollywood’s most tradition-bound entity – is embracing a new reality: Viewers, in particular younger ones, now watch most of their content online.

–We note the passing of Robert J. Samuelson, 79, a terrific economics columnist for Newsweek and the Washington Post that I referred to back in the day countless times.  Samuelson (no relation to economist Paul Samuelson) wrote in a reader-friendly way about the perils of inflation and entitlement spending and the slow-motion crisis of the national debt.

Samuelson had no formal training in economics, but as he put it in an interview for C-Span in 2010: “I don’t have an economics degree, and I think in some ways that’s a strong point, because I’m always trying to explain things to myself, and if I can explain them to me, I think I could try to explain them to my readers.  I’m not trying to impress economists.”

Plug the name Robert Samuelson into my search bar and you’ll find 239 references.  That’s how much I thought of and admired his opinions.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: In 2 ½ days of talks in Berlin, President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to drop Ukraine’s aspirations to join the NATO military alliance.

President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said “a lot of progress was made” as he and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met Zelensky in the latest push to end the war.

The moves mark a major shift for Ukraine, which has fought to join NATO as a safeguard against Russian attacks and has such an aspiration included in its constitution.  It also meets one of Russia’s war aims, although Kyiv has so far held firm against ceding territory to Moscow.

“Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more. A lot of progress was made, and they will meet again tomorrow morning,” Witkoff said in a post on X.

Zelensky said in answer to questions from reporters: “From the very beginning, Ukraine’s desire was to join NATO.  These are real security guarantees. Some partners from the U.S. and Europe did not support this direction.

“Thus, today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the U.S., Article 5-like guarantees for us from the U.S., and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries – Canada, Japan – are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion. And it is already a compromise on our part.”

President Putin has repeatedly demanded Ukraine officially renounce its NATO ambitions and withdraw troops from about 10% of Donbas which Kyiv still controls.  Moscow has also said Ukraine must be a neutral country and no NATO troops can be stationed in Ukraine.

But giving up territory is an unacceptable reward for Russia’s aggression, Ukraine says.

In fact, 75% of Ukrainians surveyed said giving up land to Russia or capping Kyiv’s military was “completely unacceptable,” according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.  A further “63% of Ukrainians are ready to endure war as long as necessary,” the survey said.

By the end of Tuesday, U.S., Ukraine and European countries had reached an agreement on 90 percent of the terms to end the war with Russia, but questions of territorial control remain unresolved.

The ball is now in Russia’s court, with Zelensky saying the Kremlin would receive the proposal within days.

And Europe’s on the cusp of finalizing a funding plan for Ukraine.  They hope it will help ensure that they have a seat at the table as negotiations intensify – and that Ukraine is in as strong a position as possible to make a deal.

On Thursday, European leaders met to decide if they can agree on a plan to use Russia’s own assets, frozen in Europe, to back a loan that would help Ukraine fund the war and its government for the next two years.

But obstacles remained, as Belgium in particular expressed persistent doubts amid reports that senior Belgian politicians and senior finance executives have been subject to a campaign of intimidation orchestrated by Russian intelligence aimed at persuading the country to block the use of the frozen assets for Ukraine, according to European intelligence agencies.

Then late Thursday, European leaders committed to lend Ukraine 90 billion euros, or around $105 billion, to help the country keep fighting but failed to agree on a plan to use frozen Russian assets for the loan.

The vow to loan Ukraine money amounts to a financial lifeline at a crucial moment, but the European Unnion’s inability to agree on handing Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in Russian funds underlines divisions in the bloc over the extent to which they are prepared to confront Russia.

Belgium and Prime Minister Bart de Wever did prove to be the stumbling block to using the Russian assets to fund a Ukraine loan.  Belgium worried that a successful legal challenge to the reparations loan could leave the country in a financial crisis, because Belgium houses Euroclear, which held around two-thirds of the $300 billion in Russian central-bank assets that the bloc froze in the first days of the war in Ukraine.

De Wever admitted Russia had threatened retaliation against Belgium and him personally if the government backed the reparations loan.

For his part, Wednesday, Putin warned that Moscow would achieve its goals in Ukraine either through diplomacy or on the battlefield.

Speaking to Defense Ministry officials, Putin lashed out against the previous Biden administration’s stance toward Russia and called European leaders backing Ukraine “piglets” who wanted to feast on the collapse of Russia.

Putin’s speech thus signaled that the Trump administration’s push to clinch a peace deal hasn’t changed the Kremlin’s war aims in Ukraine.

“The goals of the special military operation will undoubtedly be achieved,” Putin said, using the Russian euphemism for the war. “If the opposing side and their foreign patrons refuse to engage in substantive discussions, Russia will achieve the liberation of its historical lands through military means.”

In his year-end highly-orchestrated news conference Friday, Putin reiterated that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, declaring Russian forces have “fully seized the strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end.

“Our troops are advancing all across the line of contact, faster in some areas or slower in some others, but the enemy is retreating in all sectors,” Putin said.

Talks between U.S. and Russian officials are to take place in Miami this weekend.

The U.S. is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase the pressure on Moscow should President Putin reject the peace agreement with Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.

The U.S. is considering options, such as targeting vessels in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to transport Moscow’s oil, as well as traders who facilitate the transactions, said the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday, according to the Interfax news service.  “It’s obvious that any sanctions are harmful for the process of rebuilding relations,” he said.

Previous harsh sanctions since Russia launched the full-scale war haven’t changed Putin’s calculus so far.

Last Friday night/early Saturday, Russian drones and missiles pummeled Odesa in one of the biggest attacks of the war on the southern port, causing major power outages that plunged parts of the city into darkness.

The attack targeted energy, industrial and other infrastructure in several regions of southern Ukraine, leaving the country’s largest Black Sea port without power, water and heat, Ukrainian officials said.  Hospitals and public drinking water stations were switched onto generators.  There were no reports of deaths.

Earlier in the day, President Zelensky made a dramatic statement of defiance, releasing a video filmed on the edge of a besieged city whose capture Russia touted almost a month ago.

Zelensky’s video came as his troops said they had successfully counterattacked in the city, Kupyansk, defying the Kremlin’s attempts to depict its nearly four-year invasion as an inexorable advance.

“The Russians kept going on about Kupyansk,” Zelensky said, recording a selfie video as the sound of explosions echoed from the city behind him.  “The reality speaks for itself.”

President Trump has said Ukraine is losing the war.  Vladimir Putin last month predicted the imminent collapse of Kyiv’s forces, pointing to the supposed capture of Kupyansk as a portent of further Russian breakthroughs across the front line.

Ukraine said it used underwater drones to strike and critically damage a Russian submarine, claiming a first in maritime warfare and mounting a display of Ukraine’s ability to find innovative ways to wound its giant neighbor.

The Security Service of Ukraine, the SBU, said that it had “effectively disabled” a Russian submarine in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.  Footage released by the SBU showed an explosion near a docked submarine in a crowded naval port.

And then Friday, Ukraine released a video showing a Russian oil tanker being blown up by Ukrainian drones in an “unprecedented special operation” in neutral waters in the Mediterranean Sea.

The footage of the attack showed the shadow fleet tanker being obliterated more than 1,200 miles from Ukraine, the SBU said.  It’s the first time Kyiv has struck in neutral waters, according to officials.

Ukraine insisted the strike “posed no threat” to the environment, claiming the vessel wasn’t carrying cargo at the time.

The tanker had unloaded oil at the Indian port of Sikka earlier this month and was en route back when the strike was carried out, officials said.

Russia has been attacking Ukraine’s warehouses supplying the vast majority of its pharmacies, with medical supplies worth about $200 million having been destroyed in just two strikes in October and December.

China/Taiwan/Hong Kong: The U.S. said it had approved $11.1 billion in arms-sales packages for Taiwan, a show of support from Washington as President Trump focuses on trade deals and displays a softer U.S. stance toward China.

The approved weapons sales, announced late Wednesday, are intended to support Taipei’s efforts to “modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said.

The approvals riled Beijing, which has vehemently opposed any arms sales to Taipei.  Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory and has long said it would seize the island by force if necessary.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Thursday that the U.S. efforts to arm Taiwan would backfire and that Taiwan was “squandering its people’s hard-earned money to buy weapons and turning Taiwan into a powder keg.”

The U.S. approvals include 82 Himars truck-based missile launchers, a $4.05 billion purchase that would contribute to Taiwan’s ability to inflict pain on invading forces – part of the island’s goal of making China’s much more powerful military think twice before attacking.

The package also features howitzers, missiles and antitank drones, among other items.

The 60 approved howitzers are the latest model, currently in service with the U.S. military, and represent a significant upgrade for Taiwan, said Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at the military-backed Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act obligated Washington to provide the island with arms for its own self-defense.

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, Jimmy Lai, the former media mogul and founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily, an outspoken critic of Beijing, was convicted in a landmark national security trial in the city’s court on Monday, which could send him to prison for the rest of his life.

Three government-vetted judges found Lai, 78, guilty of conspiring with others to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security and conspiracy to publish seditious articles.  He pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Lai was arrested in August 2020 under a Beijing-imposed national security law that was implemented following massive anti-government protests in 2019.  During his five years in custody, Lai has been sentenced for several lesser offenses, and appears to have grown more frail and thinner.

Lai’s trial, conducted without a jury, has been closely monitored by the U.S., Britain, the European Union and political observers as a barometer of media freedom and judicial independence in the former British colony, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

His verdict is also a test for Beijing’s diplomatic ties.  President Trump said he has raised the case with China, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said his government has made it a priority to secure the release of Lai, who is a British citizen.

Under Hong Kong’s sweeping national security law, the collusion charge could result in a sentence ranging from three years in jail to life imprisonment.  The sedition charge carries a maximum of two years’ imprisonment.  A hearing was set for January.

The Apple Daily was a vocal critic of the Hong Kong government and the ruling Chinese Communist Party.  It was forced shut in 2021 after police raided its newsroom and arrested its senior journalists, with authorities freezing its assets.

During Lai’s 156-day trial, prosecutors accused him of conspiring with senior executives of Apple Daily and others to request foreign forces to impose sanctions or blockades and engage in other hostile activities against Hong Kong or China.

Editorial / Washington Post

“The fate of the former British colony is a warning to any nation that cuts a deal with China.

“When China peacefully took control of Hong Kong in 1997, Beijing’s communist rulers promised to preserve the former British colony’s freedoms and way of life.  That promise was eroded a long time ago, and Monday’s guilty verdict in the trial of the media mogul and pro-democracy stalwart Jimmy Lai extinguished any flicker of hope that still burned in the once vibrant city.

“Lai has been held for some five years, mostly in solitary confinement. The three judges who handed down the decision were doing precisely what they were handpicked to do: ignore the evidence and use this political show trial to find Lai guilty of colluding with foreign forces and conspiring to publish seditious material, among other ludicrous offenses….

“On Dec. 7, Hong Kong held a second stage-managed vote in a so-called ‘patriots-only’ election where no opposition candidates were allowed to run. Turnout was a paltry 31.9 percent, with many casting invalid ballots as a form of protest….

“Hong Kong is still reeling from a devastating apartment fire last month that claimed at least 160 lives.  There have been reports of faulty and substandard construction materials used in renovation work that was ongoing, as well as fire alarms that didn’t work. Residents had been complaining about the dangers for months.

“The government set up a committee to investigate the fire – and then immediately began arresting people petitioning for accountability.  China’s national security office summoned foreign media outlets to accuse them of having ‘distorted and smeared the government’s disaster relief and aftermath work.’  This is Hong Kong today.

“President Donald Trump wants to cut a major deal with China, and he has offered President Xi Jinping a series of concessions to get there.  Lai’s only hope is that Trump can secure his freedom as part of those negotiations. The great irony is that Trump may cut a deal to free someone who is imprisoned only because China reneged on another deal with a Western country.”

President Trump told reporters that he had urged leniency for Lai during a call with Xi Jinping.

“I feel so badly.  I spoke to President Xi about it, and I asked to consider his releasee,” Trump said, without specifying exactly when the conversation took place.

Syria: Two U.S. soldiers and an American civilian interpreter were killed during an attack Saturday near the city of Palmyra, Syria, according to the Pentagon, and three additional soldiers were wounded in the assault.

U.S. and Syrian troops came under fire while on a joint counterterrorism mission, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell wrote on social media.

The attack occurred as the soldiers were conducting a “key leader engagement,” a military term referring to meetings with local officials or dignitaries.

U.S. Central Command said in a statement that the attack was conducted by a “lone ISIS gunman.”  The shooter was killed.

About 2,000 U.S. troops were in Syria as of last December, according to the Pentagon.  Their primary goal for years has been combating Islamic State and curbing Iranian influence.  They frequently partner with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led militia that controls much of Syria’s northeast.

The attacker we later learned was a member of the Syrian security forces who was set to be fired for holding extremist views, according to Syrian and U.S. officials.

The attack illustrated the security challenges facing Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Islamist militant who is trying to consolidate control over the country after the collapse of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime last year.

The incident also underscored the stakes for President Trump, who met with Sharaa at the White House in November and embraced him as a partner in combating Islamic State militants but faces new concerns about the Damascus government’s ability to screen its forces and new recruits.

A spokesman for Syria’s Interior Ministry said in an interview with the country’s national television service that the assailant had been suspected of extremist sympathies in an evaluation issued on Dec. 10 and was set to be dismissed from the security forces on Sunday, the day after the attack.

Syria is investigating whether the gunman had direct ties to Islamic State or if he simply adopted its ideology.

Syrian security forces arrested five suspects in an operation in the city of Palmyra.

Israel/Gaza: President Trump was frustrated at an Israeli operation to kill a top Hamas commander without giving the U.S. prior notice, fearing it could disrupt a fragile cease-fire in Gaza that he considers one of his major achievements, U.S. officials said, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Trump’s complaints were conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Trump has separately told aides that Netanyahu was derailing “my deal” to halt the fighting and rebuild the shattered enclave.  Netanyahu’s office responded by saying that Israel was forced to strike because Hamas has shown no signs of disarming, which a future phase of the plan requires, according to U.S. officials.

Axios has previously reported that the administration in general is expressing growing frustration with Israel over its continued airstrikes and other military moves in Gaza which have slowed dealing with other terms of the cease-fire, including creating an alternative to Hamas to govern the strip and permanently ending the war.

Speaking to reporters Monday at the White House, Trump denied he was frustrated with Netanyahu.  On a possible Israeli violation of the cease-fire terms by killing Raed Saad, Trump said, “We’re looking into that.”

Venezuela/Colombia: The U.S. military says it has carried out three more strikes on boats it has accused of trafficking drugs in the Pacific Ocean, killing eight people.

The U.S. Southern Command posted footage of the strikes on social media and said the vessels were “transiting along known narco-trafficking routes…and were engaged in narco-trafficking.”

This brings the number killed to 95 in all the strikes in the Pacific and Caribbean since Sept. 2.

[We then learned of another attack on a boat in the eastern Pacific Thursday that killed four, making the total 99. Friday, two more attacks on boats…death toll at least 104.]

Tuesday evening, President Trump then said he is ordering “a total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela.

In a post on Truth Social, he said Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s government had been designated a foreign terrorist organization and accused it of stealing U.S. assets, as well as “Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking.”

“Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela,” he added.

His remarks came a week after the U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.  In a statement, Venezuela’s government said it rejected Trump’s “grotesque threat.”

But left unclear is how many tankers will be affected and how the U.S. will impose the blockade.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s navy will escort some of the tankers amid the blockade, increasing the likelihood of a violent conflict, though thus far none of the tankers on the water are on the list of sanctioned tankers the U.S. is threatening to target.

Separately, the U.S. added Colombia’s largest cocaine cartel to its list of terrorist organizations and threatened to use “all available tools” against such groups it is targeting across Latin America.

The Clan del Golfo cartel “is a violent and powerful criminal organization with thousands of members,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement Tuesday.

President Trump has added numerous criminal groups, including Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations since returning to office this year.  Earlier this month, he suggested the U.S. will “very soon” start targeting cartels on land in Venezuela and beyond, extending a campaign that has so far focused on vessels suspected of trafficking in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Chile: Jose Antonio Kast, a conservative candidate, was elected Chile’s president on Sunday, a sharp rightward swing for a country where voters have grown deeply concerned about security and illegal immigration.

Kast, 59, a father of nine with ideological roots in conservative Roman Catholicism and economic neoliberalism, had campaigned on a tough-on-crime platform with echoes of President Trump’s political approach, promising to deport undocumented migrants and build a barrier along Chile’s extensive northern border.

With over 98 percent of the ballots counted, Kast had more than 58 percent of the vote, a resounding victory over Jeannette Jara, the candidate for the center-left and a member of the Communist Party of Chile, who had about 42 percent.

“Chile will be free from crime again, free from anguish, free from fear,” Mr. Kast said in a victory speech on Sunday, outside his campaign’s headquarters in an upscale neighborhood of Santiago, adding that he would chase criminals and “lock them up.”

Random Musings

Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapprove.  25% of independents approve (Nov. 3-25).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 53% disapprove (Dec. 19)

In a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll, President Trump’s approval rating came in at 42%, and disapproval at 58%, a slight approval rating drop of 3 points over the course of four polls since April.

Among the Republicans who consider themselves more supporters of the Republican Party than the MAGA movement, the share of those who “strongly approve” of Trump now stands at 35%, compared with 38% in April.

Trump’s strong approval is higher among those who considers themselves MAGA Republicans: 70%.  But that represents a drop of 8 points (from 78%) since April.

Overall, 64% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, up from 60% in the beginning of the year.

A new Quinnipiac University Poll has Trump with a 40% approval rating, while 54% disapprove.  The same 40% approve of his handling of the economy, while 55% disapprove.

But this survey also reveals that heading into the midterm elections, only 18% of voters approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 73% disapprove, which is a record low job approval rating for them in this poll.  Just 42% of Democrats approve of the way members of their own party are handling their job in Congress, while 48% disapprove.

Thirty-five percent of voters approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 58% disapprove.

Nonetheless, if the election were held today, 47% of voters say they would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the House of Representatives, while 43% would want to see the Republican Party win control.

This compares to Quinnipiac’s Oct. 22 poll, when the Democratic Party held a clear advantage over the Republican Party 50-41 percent.

With the chances of renewing the health care subsidies before the end of December appearing increasingly dim, lawmakers are now contending with the increasing possibility of another government shutdown in January.

Some hope remained for a bipartisan deal to extend the enhanced tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) before they expire at the end of the year.  Members of both parties are feeling the pressure as premiums are set to spike for more than 20 million Americans if they aren’t extended.

But the way wasn’t clear, especially after competing Democratic and Republican proposals to address the issue both failed in the Senate late last week.

On Tuesday, Speaker Mike Johnson shut the door on a vote to extend the subsidies, bucking moderates in his party who had urged action.

Johnson had signaled openness to allowing debate on the proposal, but he ultimately rejected a bid to do so by politically vulnerable Republicans who had hoped for a vote that would, at the very least, allow them to show voters they had tried to avoid rising premiums.

After a closed-door meeting with Republicans, Johnson ruled out holding a vote.

“We looked for a way to try to allow for that pressure release valve, and it just was not to be,” the speaker told reporters.

Which drew fury from a small group of Republicans.

“It’s idiotic,” Rep. Mike Lawler told reporters, adding that the decision was “political malpractice.”

But then Wednesday, Rep. Lawler joined three Republicans from Pennsylvania swing districts – Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie – in signing a petition led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) that would force a vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies.

With their signatures on the discharge petition, Jeffries now has the 218 needed to force a vote, which wouldn’t occur until next year.

Speaker Johnson was not happy, telling CNBC Wednesday, “Doing an end-run around the majority party, the speaker or the regular process is not the best way to make law.”

This all makes Jan. 30 the next key date in the ongoing health care debate.  It’s the day that government funding is set to run out if the appropriations bill – or another continuing resolution – isn’t passed.

[An effort by Senate Majority Leader John Thune to get a spending package through this week that would have funded most of the government well beyond January failed to come to a vote when Democratic Colorado Sens. Michael Bennett and John Hickenlooper objected to moving forward over Trump’s plan to gut a key climate agency, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a top research institution specializing in climate science that is based in Boulder, Colo.  I agree with the two senators on this one.]

The death toll in the mass shooting at a celebration in Australia Sunday marking the first night of Hanukkah rose to 15 on Monday morning, authorities almost immediately describing it as an act of terrorism carried out by a father and son.  Victims ranged in age from 10 to 87, and many of those being treated were in critical condition.

The father, 50, died after being shot by police and the 24-year-old son sustained “critical injuries” but was expected to survive.

A civilian, Ahmed al-Ahmed, was a true hero, wrestling a gun from one of the shooters and was seriously injured himself.

Hundreds of people had gathered at Bondi Beach, a half-mile crescent of sand a few miles from downtown Sydney for the Hanukkah event, while children played as music and bubbles filled the air.  Then the attackers emerged from a silver hatchback near a bridge and opened fire.

“This is a targeted attack on Jewish Australians on the first day of Hanukkah, which should be a day of joy,” Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said.  He added, “An attack on Jewish Australians is an attack on every Australian.”

Monday, Albanese said: “What we saw yesterday was an act of pure evil, an act of antisemitism, an act of terrorism on our shores, in an iconic Australian location.”

Tuesday, Albanese said the father and son were inspired by ISIS, authorities confirming the two men had traveled to the Philippines the month before.

“It would appear that there is evidence that this was inspired by a terrorist organization, by ISIS,” Albanese said at a news conference, citing the Islamic State flags found in the vehicle registered to the younger suspect.

“Radical perversion of Islam is absolutely a problem,” Albanese added.

Earlier he told ABC Sydney the attack was apparently motivated by the group’s “ideology of hate” that led to “a preparedness to engage in mass murder.”

The Philippine Bureau of Immigration said Sajid and Naveed Akram arrived in the country on Nov. 1, reporting their final destination as Davao, a city considered the gateway to the south of the country.  The southern Philippines, in particular, remains a center for Islamic State militant activity.  They left the country on Nov. 8.

After a mass shooting in Australia in 1996 that killed 35 people, the country enacted strict gun laws, yet the older suspect had licenses for six guns, according to investigators, and a total of six were recovered from the scene and the searched properties.

The shooting was the latest in a series of antisemitic attacks in Australia.

In the aftermath, anger spilled over the Jewish community which accused the government of failing to halt a years-long increase in antisemitism that culminated in the nation’s worst-ever terrorist incident.

Australia saw a record 1,045 antisemitic incidents in 2024, up 26% from the previous year and more than double the average annual tally from 2018 to 2022, according to a report by Community Security Group, a Jewish not-for-profit organization.

To many at Bondi Beach on Monday, the catalyst for that rise was an Oct. 9, 2023 march by pro-Palestine protesters through the center of Sydney. Anti-Jewish slurs were chanted during the rally, which had been authorized to take place by local police and who later launched investigations into the incidents.

Bret Stephens / New York Times

“There is a measure of comfort to be taken in the fact that Sunday’s terrorist attack at a Hanukkah event at Sydney’s Boni Beach, which left at least 15 people dead and many more injured, also produced a hero.  Ahmed al-Ahmed, described in news accounts as a local shopkeeper, single-handedly disarmed one of two terrorists and survived being shot twice – a scene that was captured on camera and has since gone viral.

“That act of bravery not only saved lives; it served as an essential reminder that humanity can always transcend cultural and religious boundaries.

“But the Hanukkah massacre also represents the continuing inability of the government of Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, to safeguard the country’s Jewish community.  In October 2024, a kosher restaurant in Bondi was the target of an arson attack; six weeks later, an Orthodox synagogue was firebombed.  Those attacks were attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, and the Albanese government duly responded by expelling the Iranian ambassador in Canberra and closing its own embassy in Tehran.

“Sadly for Australia, foreign actors alone aren’t the problem.  Last year, Jillian Segal, the government’s special envoy to combat antisemitism, warned that ‘antisemitic behavior is not only present on many campuses, but is an embedded part of the culture.’ In the wake of Hamas’ attack of Oct. 7, Greens legislator Jenny Leong went on a rant accusing ‘the tentacles’ of the ‘Jewish lobby and the Zionist lobby’ of ‘infiltrating into every aspect of what is ethnic community groups.’  Jewish homes, neighborhoods and a day care center have been targeted by vandals and arsonists.  At least one of the alleged shooters in Sunday’s attack was known to authorities, ‘but not in an immediate threat perspective,’ according to a top Australian intelligence official.

“I heard an earful of alarm from Jewish communal leaders when I last visited Australia in June 2024, but nothing seemed to change. On Sunday, the Australian Jewish Association posted a message to Facebook: ‘How many times did we warn the Government?  We never felt once that they listened.’

“They are probably listening now.  But the problem for the Albanese government, which in September recognized a Palestinian state and has been outspoken in its condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza, is that the moral line between the routine demonization of Israel and attacks on Jews who are presumed to support Israel isn’t necessarily clear.  On Sunday, Albanese said that ‘the evil that was unleashed at Bondi Beach today is beyond comprehension.’  In fact, it’s entirely comprehensible.  For fanatics who have been led to believe that the Jewish state is the apotheosis of evil, killing Jews represents a twisted notion of justice. Even when the victims are unarmed civilians. Even when they are celebrating an ancient, joyful holiday.

“There’s a larger lesson here that goes far beyond Australia.

“Though we’ll probably learn more in the weeks ahead about the mind-set of Sunday’s killers, it’s reasonable to surmise that what they thought they were doing was ‘globalizing the intifada.’ That is, they were taking to heart slogans like ‘resistance is justified,’ and ‘by any means necessary,’ which have become ubiquitous at anti-Israel rallies the world over.  For many of those who chant those lines, they may seem like abstractions and metaphors, a political attitude in favor of Palestinian freedom rather than a call to kill their presumptive oppressors.

But there are always literalists – and it’s the literalists who usually believe their ideas should have real-world consequences.  On Sunday, those consequences were written in Jewish blood.  History tells us that it won’t be the last time.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“It was a bloody 24 hours. First, three Americans were killed and three wounded on Saturday by an ISIS terrorist in Syria’s security forces. Then two students were killed and nine injured in a shooting at Brown University whose motive is unknown as we write.  Next, at least 15 were killed and 40 injured in a terrorist attack on a Hanukkah celebration in Australia.

“On Friday German police arrested five men – three Moroccans, a Syrian and an Egyptian – on suspicion of planning an attack on a Christmas market.  That night a Jewish home in Redlands, Calif., was shot up.  The Anti-Defamation League, which is in touch with the victim, says, ‘A suspect shouted antisemitic slurs and fired approximately 20 rounds into the home, which was clearly decorated with Hanukkah decorations.’

“With time we will learn more, but for now we can say this: While the ‘global war on terrorism’ may have ended, the global terrorist war on the rest of us hasn’t.

“The shooter in Syria, who killed two Iowa National Guard soldiers and a U.S. interpreter, can’t be dismissed as a lone infiltrator.  President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made a momentous shift to bring Syria into the American orbit, but as these pages have warned, some of the foreign jihadists who fought alongside him have been made commanders in the Syrian army.

“U.S. envoy Tom Barrack said the attack underscores the need for the residual U.S. force in Syria to keep ISIS down.  President Trump has brought Syria sanctions relief and the least Mr. Sharaa now owes in return is to purge his forces of these elements, especially in the upper ranks….

“The ghastly toll [from the weekend’s attacks] is a reminder of the continuing danger from Islamic terrorism.  U.S. soldiers in the Middle East, Christians in the heart of Europe, and Jews as far-flung as Australia are all considered targets.”

Naveed Akram, the surviving suspect in the Bondi Beach shooting, was charged with 59 offenses, including 15 counts of murder and one of committing a terrorist act, according to the New South Wales Police.

His father Sajid Akram, 50, was killed in the exchange of fire with police.

Editorial / Washington Post

“Your papers, please – and tweets, too.  This could soon be a new requirement if you want to visit the United States.

Customs and Border Protection filed a notice this week that it plans to require tourists from the 42 countries who otherwise can enter without a visa to start sharing their social media activity from the last five years, as well as any email addresses that have been active for the past 10 years. That’s in addition to the names, birth dates, places of residence and birthplaces of parents, spouses, siblings and children.

“Giving extra scrutiny to visitors from dangerous countries is defensible, but why does the government need to conduct background checks on every visitor from the U.K., Australia, Japan and South Korea?

“This move flows from President Donald Trump’s order that visitors coming into the country, and those already here, must ‘not bear hostile attitudes toward its citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles.’  No one wants to open the door to visitors who mean to harm Americans upon arrival. But what exactly are the criteria for ‘hostile attitudes’?  Is the Department of Homeland Security screening for X users who frequently share ‘Death to America,’ critical memes of Trump – or both?  Does advocating for election interference weigh against a visitor as heavily as lamenting an election result?

“These distinctions matter, not least because the current administration has shown repeatedly it is willing to blur speech it does not like with over-torqued claims of national security threats.  Prime examples include Turkish Tufts student Rumeysa Ozturk and Algerian-Palestinian Columbia student Mahmoud Khalil, who were detained earlier this year after criticizing Israel’s conduct in its war with Hamas.

“DHS may not be violating any constitutional rights by requiring visitors to hand over their social media history when applying for a travel visa, but it certainly breaks with the spirit of the founding principles the administration claims it wants to protect.  America’s support for free speech has long been part of what makes the country such a beacon. In contrast, China or Russia have long been in the business of doing deep dives into the social media posts of visitors and refusing entry to people thought to be too critical of those governments.

“America’s closest allies are among the 42 countries in the visa waiver program whose visitors would now be subject to these checks.  Not only does this seem impractical, creating unnecessary red tape for our friends to navigate when coming to America. It also cedes the free-speech high ground.  Can the U.S. inveigh against the UK arresting an Irish comedian for his tweets or South Korea enacting ‘disinformation laws’ when it also treats speech as dangerous?

“It’s certainly not going to help tourism. Hospitality industry leaders complain they weren’t consulted before the new rule was proposed in the Federal Register, which kicked off a 60-day period for public comment.  The agency responds that this is just ‘the first step in starting a discussion.’  If the administration is so interested in reading what foreigners have to say on social media, they should heed the complaints from people across the world for fear old Facebook posts could prevent them from getting to see the World Cup next year.”

–Speaking of the World Cup, new travel bans imposed by the U.S. government on Tuesday threatened to exclude fans of African nations Senegal and Ivory Coast from attending the big event.

On Tuesday, President Trump signed a proclamation which imposed partial travel bans on two more nations who will compete in the World Cup, with Iranian and Haitian nationals already facing travel restrictions to the United States.

The proclamation suspends entry into the U.S. for nationals of Ivory Coast and Senegal, both as immigrants and non-immigrants, including in the visitor category for business and tourism – the latter of which would be required to attend the World Cup.

The Senate by a 77-20 vote gave final approval to a $900 billion defense policy bill, clearing legislation that advances the bulk of President Trump’s national security agenda and modernizes the way the U.S. military buys weapons and supplies, while also seeking to reassert congressional oversight of military operations.

The price tag, including a pay raise of 3.8 percent for military personnel, was $8 billion above what the White House had requested for the Pentagon for the next year. Trump signed it into law later in the week.

The measure does put bipartisan pressure on the Pentagon to be more transparent with Congress about the boat strikes the Trump administrations has carried out in international waters.

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

It isn’t only inflation spreading unease. Artificial intelligence is coming.  It’s going to change the entire employment picture in America over the next few years. It’s going to eat jobs, and people with imagination – and America is nothing if not imaginative – can see it coming. This is part of the background music in America: Americans who aren’t unemployed and do have a house are afraid that in the next few years they could lose their job, their security. And they’re worried about their kids.

“A woman in a service industry, an immigrant to America from Eastern Europe who’s been here about 20 years, took me aside recently.  Her eldest child, a senior in high school, is looking around at local colleges.  She was worried about AI and asked for advice on what her son might study so that in four years he could get a job.  We asked ChatGPT, which advised ‘embodied in-person work’ such as heating and air conditioning technician, pool cleaner. She wasn’t happy with that. She’d worked herself to the bone to get her son higher in the world than she is. She wants him to own the pool.

“That is how Americans think: rise. They want to know their government is thinking about AI. They want a sense that someone in charge sees the big picture.  They want to hear there’s a plan.  Mr. Trump sees the development of AI simply as a matter of competition with China and of economic growth, which is dependent right now on AI.

“He shows no sign of seeing any dark side to it, has no apparent plans to regulate it, and is beating back state attempts to impose limits. He’s given his friends the AI ‘broligarchs,’ in Ed Luce’s term in the Financial Times, ‘carte blanche.’

“What happened the last time Mark Zuckerberg had carte blanche?  Haven’t we read about all the billionaires powering AI who have safe houses and bunkers to which to flee if and when the world they’re inventing goes under?

“Mr. Trump seems alive to none of this, but regular people are, and this has more to do with our economic unease than we credit.

“Those around the president believe the next big moment for him comes in January, with the State of the Union Address, when he can reset the table with a great speech.

“Maybe. Those addresses don’t have the power they once had but still retain some. He might focus on things people are really thinking about – AI, inflation and how Americans in their 30s and 40s can get it together to buy a house and have a baby and keep this whole lumbering thing called America going.”

The Department of Veterans Affairs plans to abruptly eliminate as many as 35,000 health care positions this month, mostly unfilled jobs including doctors, nurses and support staff, according to an internal memo, VA staffers and congressional aides.

The cuts come after a massive reorganization effort already resulted in the loss of almost 30,000 employees this year.

The decision comes after Veterans Affairs Secretary Douglas A. Collins, under political pressure from Congress, backed away from a plan to slash 15 percent of the agency’s workforce through mass firings.  Instead, VA lost almost 30,000 employees this year from buyout offers and attrition.

The VA argues that most of the jobs being eliminated are covid-era roles that are no longer necessary.

–Legendary Hollywood director, producer and actor Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele Singer, were murdered in their Brentwood, Los Angeles, home on Sunday evening.  They were 78 and 68, respectively.

Their son, Nick Reiner, 32, was then arrested Sunday night and booked Monday morning for the murders.  Reports surfaced that Rob and Michelle had taken him Saturday night to a party at Conan O’Brien’s home and that Rob and Nick got into an argument, Nick acting erratically and in an embarrassing fashion.

Best known to the modern generation as a prolific voice behind the camera, Reiner was responsible for such classic films as “Stand by Me” (1986), “The Princess Bride” (1987), “When Harry Met Sally” (1989), “Misery” (1990), and “A Few Good Men” (1992).

Reiner was born in the Bronx to Carl and Estelle Reiner.  An early television pioneer who made waves as an actor, director, screenwriter and comedian, Carl Reiner went on to earn 11 Emmy Awards and the Mark Twain Prize for American humor before his death in 2020.

Rob Reiner first rose to mainstream prominence for his role as the hippie Mike “Meathead” Stivic on the CBS sitcom “All in the Family,” which ran from 1971 to 1979, must-watch TV in my household growing up.  Reiner won two Emmy Awards for his character.

He made his directorial debut with the 1984 music mockumentary “This is Spinal Tap,” which performed modestly at the box office but went on to become a cult classic.  The project bookends his career, as it spawned a 2025 sequel, his final film, “Spinal Tap II: The End Continues.”

Reiner became a vocal progressive voice in Hollywood, speaking out frequently against President Trump, slamming him as a racist, sexist and antisemitic.  He was also a fervent defender of gay rights and a firm opponent of the tobacco lobby.

President Trump then posted on Truth Social at 9:51 AM Monday morning:

“A very sad thing happened last night in Hollywood.  Rob Reiner, a tortured and struggling, but once very talented movie director and comedy star, has passed away, together with his wife, Michele, reportedly due to the anger he caused others through his massive, unyielding, and incurable affliction with a mind crippling disease known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, sometimes referred to as TDS. He was known to have driven people CRAZY by his raging obsession of President Donald J. Trump, with his obvious paranoia reaching new heights as the Trump Administration surpassed all goals and expectations of greatness, and with the Golden Age of America upon us, perhaps like never before.  May Rob and Michele rest in peace!”

Not just Democrats were furious with this statement, which Trump doubled down on later Monday in speaking to reporters.

David Urban, a former Trump campaign advisor in Pennsylvania, called the comments “indefensible,” adding on X: “Why not simply: ‘Melania and I extend our deepest sympathies and condolences to the Reiner family at this very difficult time?’”

Jenna Ellis, a lawyer who advised Trump during his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, wrote on X that it was “NOT the appropriate response” and “a horrible example from Trump.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky,): “Regardless of how you felt about Rob Reiner, this is inappropriate and disrespectful discourse” about a man who died, Massie, who faces a Trump-backed primary challenge next year posted on social media.  “I guess my elected GOP colleagues, the VP, and White House staff will just ignore it because they’re afraid?  I challenge anyone to defend it.”

Rep. Mike Lawler, a centrist New York Republican, said on X that Trump’s “statement is wrong…It’s a horrible tragedy that should engender sympathy and compassion from everyone in our country, period.”

Nick Reiner was charged Tuesday with two counts of first-degree murder in the killing of his parents.

District Attorney Nathan Hochman said in announcing the charges that the loss of Rob Reiner and his wife “is beyond tragic and we will commit ourselves to bringing their murderer to justice.”

President Trump sued the BBC for up to $10 billion in damages over edited clips of a speech that made it appear he directed supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol, opening an international front in his fight against media coverage he deems untrue or unfair.

Trump accused Britain’s publicly owned broadcaster of defaming him by splicing together parts of a January 6, 2021, speech, including one section where he told supporters to march on the Capitol and another where he said, “fight like hell.”  It omitted a section in which he called for peaceful protest.

Trump’s lawsuit alleges the BBC defamed him and violated a Florida law that bars deceptive and unfair trade practices.  He is seeking $5 billion in damages for each of the lawsuit’s two counts.

The BBC said it would defend the case and would not make any further comment. It had previously apologized to Trump, admitted an error of judgment and acknowledged that the edit gave the mistaken impression that he had made a direct call for violent action.  But it has said there is no legal basis to sue.

Trump, addressing a group Tuesday night, talked of “A $400 million [ballroom].  It’ll be the most beautiful ballroom, and it’ll handle inaugurations.  It’s got five-inch-thick glass windows. Impenetrable by anything but a howitzer.”

When the White House first unveiled the ritzy ballroom design over the summer, it gave an initial $200 million estimate for the price tag.

That estimate was then increased to $300 million.  Tuesday was the first time in which Trump publicly jacked the price tag up further to $400 million.

–Congratulations to President Trump for having the foresight to handpick a board that would rename Washington’s leading performing arts center as the Trump Kennedy Center, the White House announced Thursday.  But the move probably isn’t legal.

“The Kennedy Center is a living memorial to a fallen president and named for President Kennedy by federal law,” former Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.) said in a post on X.  “It can no sooner be renamed than can someone rename the Lincoln Memorial, no matter what anyone says.”

House Minority Leader Jeffries also argued the name change could only happen through an act of Congress.

Of course, you knew then what would happen.  Friday, the lettering on the center was being changed. This is sick.

The gunman responsible for the shooting at Brown University and killing days later of a professor from MIT was found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot would inside a New Hampshire storage facility, authorities announced late Thursday in a dramatic development.

The shooter, 48-year-old Claudio Manuel Neves Valente, was a physics graduate student at Brown more than two decades ago.  A legal permanent resident from Portugal, Neves Valente was living in Miami before he came to Boston last month, authorities said.

They added that he appears to have acted alone and that the motive for the killings remains unknown, but it was a tip from a homeless man that broke the case open.

More than 300,000 homes and businesses were without power after damaging winds slammed multiple states Wednesday, including South Dakota, Colorado, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Washington state.

Nearly two dozen wind gusts of more than 100 mph were recorded Wednesday.  It was staggering.

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen, especially this week Iowa National Guardsmen Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, killed in the ISIS attack in Syria.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

Gold $4372 (record weekly high)…Silver $67.20 (ditto)
Oil $56.65

Bitcoin: $88,025 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $2.88; Diesel: $3.62 [$3.04 – $3.51 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 12/15-12/19

Dow Jones  -0.7%  [48134]
S&P 500  +0.1%  [6834]
S&P MidCap  -0.02%
Russell 2000  -0.9%
Nasdaq  +0.5%  [23307]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-12/19/25

Dow Jones  +13.1%
S&P 500  +16.2%
S&P MidCap  +7.4%
Russell 2000  +13.4%
Nasdaq  +20.7%

Bulls 52.8
Bears 17.0

Merry Christmas!  Travel safe.

Brian Trumbore