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Edition 1,392
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday he plans to meet Donald Trump “in the coming days,” signaling optimism about reaching a peace deal to end the almost four-year war with Russia.
“A lot could be decided before the New Year,” Zelensky said in a Telegram and X post after receiving an update on talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators. The Kyiv Post reported earlier that Zelensky is expected to travel to Florida as soon as Sunday, which he then confirmed today.
I get into the details below on the issues remaining in the negotiations, but this is a critical week coming up. If Vladimir Putin does not go along with the peace plan, what will President Trump do?
Thursday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that there had been “slow but steady progress” in the peace talks, though Russia has given no indication that it will agree to any kind of withdrawal from land it seized. Instead, it continues to insist Ukraine relinquish the remaining territory in the Donbas.
“Of course, there is still work to be done on sensitive issues,” Zelensky said in his nightly address on Thursday. “But together with the American team, we understand how to put all of this in place. The weeks ahead may also be intensive. Thank you, America!”
—
Wall Street and the Economy
The Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a seasonably and inflation adjusted 4.3% annual rate for the third quarter. The long-delayed report (due to the government shutdown) was far better than consensus of 3.3% (Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow had it at 3.5%).
The strong GDP number reflected increases in consumer spending*, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation, decreased.
*Much of the acceleration in consumer spending was the result of a rush to buy electric vehicles before the September 30 expiration of tax credits.
But there was a worrisome component. The personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, increased 2.8%, compared with a Q2 increase of 2.1%, and ex-food and energy, the PCE price index rose 2.9%, compared with 2.6% for the prior quarter.
To which the Wall Street Journal opined, looking at the 2.9% figure, “disposable personal income increased only 2.8% and the savings rate fell to 4.2%. People aren’t going to feel better about the economy until their incomes keep up with rising prices.”
Continuing:
“An increase in net exports supplied 1.6 percentage points to growth. Much of this owes to a decline in imports, following the import boom early in the year as businesses tried to front-run tariffs. A decline in imports isn’t healthy if it means higher prices for consumers or U.S. businesses that become less competitive because they pay more for components. Business investment in equipment continued its healthy growth (AI?), though overall private investment was down owing to declines in residential housing and business structures.
“Trumponomics boils down to a bet that the pro-growth impact of deregulation and tax reduction can offset the damage from tariffs, which are tax increases. Imagine how well the economy would be doing without tariffs.”
President Trump on Truth Social:
“The TARIFFS are responsible for the GREAT USA Economic Numbers JUST ANNOUNCED…AND THEY WILL ONLY GET BETTER! Also, NO INFLATION & GREAT NATIONAL SECURITY. Pray for the U.S. Supreme Court!!! President DJT”
In an earlier post, Trump wrote that his new Fed Chairman will “lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever. I want to have a Market the likes of which we haven’t had in many decades, a Market that goes up on good news, and down on bad news, the way it should be, and the way it was. Inflation will take care of itself and, if it doesn’t, we can always raise RATES at the appropriate time – But the appropriate time is not to kill Rallies, which could lift our Nation by 10, 15, and even 20 GDP points in a year – and maybe even more that that!”
I don’t know what planet he is living on with this last line.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The President is betting on the benefits of his tax bill kicking in next year. Its expensing provisions could lift business investment, and exemptions for tips and overtime and larger state-and-local tax deductions will increase take-home pay for some. Deregulation is also easing burdens on businesses, which could lead to a boost in hiring and pay.
“But his tariff barrage is creating uncertainty and adding costs for businesses. Deporting foreign workers without a criminal record is also hampering businesses. According to a Stateline analysis of government survey data, restaurants, construction and landscaping businesses have lost 315,000 foreign workers through August of this year.
“The Administration’s trade and immigration policies make it harder to boost housing supply and build new factories, pipelines and power plants. The Associate General Contractors of America says worker shortages are the top reason for construction delays. Nearly one in three contractors reports being affected by stepped-up immigration enforcement.
“JD Vance says restricting immigration will raise wages for American workers, but there’s little evidence this is happening. Deporting bus boys and hotel workers won’t make Americans feel richer. Nor will Mr. Trump telling voters they’ve never had it so good. Americans will start to feel better when they get a raise that isn’t washed away by inflation.”
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow first look at fourth-quarter growth is 3.0%, based on very little information.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.18%.
Very little economic news next week.
Europe and Asia
–Nothing in Europe or China on the data front side, but we will get PMI readings next week.
Japan’s November retail sales rose 1% year-over-year, 0.6% month-over-month.
Street Bytes
–The Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit record closing highs this week, 48731 and 6932, respectively, and finished up 1.2% and 1.4% on the week, the Nasdaq adding 1.2%, but a day’s rally from its own all-time high.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.57% 2-yr. 3.48% 10-yr. 4.13% 30-yr. 4.82%
Treasuries virtually unchanged on the week.
—Oil rose minimally as geopolitical risks revived supply concerns, at least briefly, with the U.S. having taken an oil tanker with 2 million barrels of crude on it, while pursuing others. And Ukraine’s attacks on Russian tankers and energy infrastructure have contributed to the supply fears.
But the fact is the oil market is way oversupplied. And Goldman Sachs analysts see the average price of West Texas Intermediate (that which I quote weekly) at around $52. If that’s the case, expect a “60 Minutes” story on how ‘Drill Baby, Drill’ isn’t exactly great for jobs in the energy sector, which are ‘Red’ states.
Sure enough, Friday, WTI finished the week at about $56.75 on Ukraine peace talk hopes, which could add to the oversupply picture should sanctions on Russian oil come off. [I don’t see the Kremlin agreeing to the latest proposal.]
—Paramount amended its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, with billionaire Larry Ellison agreeing to personally guarantee $40.4 billion of equity financing for the deal and publish records related to the family trust that backstops it.
Paramount previously made a hostile all-cash tender offer of $77.9 billion, or $30 a share, for all of Warner, including cable channels such as CNN, TNT and Food Network. The revised offer is at the same price per share.
Warner earlier recommended shareholders reject Paramount’s bid, saying it believed Netflix’s proposal for its studios and HBO Max streaming service was still superior. Netflix’s deal for the studio and streaming assets was $72 billion in cash and stock, or $27.75 per share.
Warner’s rejection had focused on what it had called an “illusory” offer, raising concerns about the credibility of the equity being offered by Paramount. It had focused on the structure of the Ellison family’s commitment to funding the deal, and called for Ellison to provide a more enforceable personal commitment.
President Trump has made it clear that he wants new ownership for CNN, a frequent target of his ire.
Paramount, which David Ellison took over in August by merging it with Skydance Media production company, is hoping to use Warner Discovery’s movie and TV show-making prowess and prestigious HBO brand to turn itself into a genuine competitor of Netflix and others like Disney.
—The Trump administration on Monday said it would pause leases for five wind farms under construction off the East Coast, essentially gutting the country’s nascent offshore wind industry in a sharp escalation of President Trump’s crusade against the renewable energy source.
The decision injected uncertainty into projects that were collectively expected to power more than 2.5 million homes and businesses across the Eastern United States.
The five wind farms targeted had all obtained leases from the Biden administration. But citing unspecified national security concerns, the Trump administration said it would freeze the leases, effectively blocking construction or operations and jeopardizing billions of dollars that have already been invested.
One of the projects, Vineyard Wind 1 off Massachusetts, is already partially running, with about half of the project’s 62 turbines sending power to the electric grid.
In addition to Vineyard Wind 1, the other projects affected by the pause are Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind off Virginia, Sunrise Wind and Empire Wind off New York, and Revolution Wind off Rhode Island and Connecticut.
Jeremy Slayton, a spokesman for Dominion Energy, called the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project “essential for American national security and meeting Virginia’s dramatically growing energy needs.”
Slayton also dismissed the administration’s unspecified national security concerns, saying the wind farm was developed “in close coordination with the military.” Two pilot turbines have been operating for five years without causing any impacts to national security.
The financial consequences for the developers of the five offshore wind farms could be dire. And thousands of high-paying jobs are in immediate danger. Orsted, the developer of Revolution Wind, said it would cut about 2,000 jobs, or around 25 percent of its work force, over the next two years, a decision fueled by the administration’s actions as well as tariffs, inflation and interest rates.
Retired U.S. Navy Cmdr. Kirk Lippold disputed the Trump administration’s claim that offshore wind projects threaten national security. He noted all five projects halted on Monday had undergone rigorous reviews, including by the Defense Department.
“Ironically, these projects will actually benefit our national security by diversifying America’s energy supplies, providing much-needed reliable power for the grid and helping our economy,” Mr. Lippold said. [New York Times]
—Nvidia plans to ship as many as 80,000 of its H200 chips to China by mid-February, Reuters reported this week, citing unnamed sources. Nvidia told Barron’s that “licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will have no impact on our ability to supply customers in the United States.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
12/25…N/A…holiday for numbers folks….
12/24…N/A
12/23…N/A
12/22…100 percent of 2024
12/21…100
12/20…97
12/19…107
12/18…112
–Late last Friday, Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package from Tesla, once worth $56 billion, was restored by the Delaware Supreme Court, two years after a 2024 lower court struck down the compensation deal as “unfathomable.”
The ruling overturns a decision that had prompted a furious backlash from Musk and damaged Delaware’s business-friendly reputation.
The 2018 pay package (in the form of deeply discounted options) is now worth about $139 billion based on the price of Tesla’s stock at the close of trading on Friday, and it went higher still this week.
—New car sales in Europe rose year-on-year in November for a fifth consecutive month, helped by an increase in EV registrations in markets including Germany, Italy and Spain, data from the European auto lobby ACEA showed on Tuesday.
Battery electric registrations, a proxy for sales, reached a market share of 21% in the European Union, 26% in the United Kingdom and 98% in Norway.
The European Commission last week made public a plan to abandon an effective 2035 ban on combustion engine cars after pressure from the region’s auto sector, marking the bloc’s biggest retreat from its green policies in recent years.
Tesla registrations fell by 11.8%, as record sales in Norway mitigated losses in other markets. They were up 221.8% at its Chinese competitor BYD. Tesla’s market share in the month was 2.1%, while BYD’s was 2%.
—American beef plants are under threat as the number of cattle destined for their facilities stays far below historical levels, reflecting the smallest herd in more than half a century.
Cattle placed in U.S. feedlots, where animals are fed until ready to be slaughtered, dropped 11% from a year ago to a record low for November, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report Friday. That follows earlier figures for October – typically the strongest month – that were also at the lowest level for the period.
Overall inventories of cattle in feedlots as of Dec. 1 were down about 2.1% from a year ago.
The situation, exacerbated by an ongoing halt of Mexican cattle shipments to prevent the spread of the deadly screwworm pest, is a major stress for beef processors that are operating at losses. It’s also setting the slate for more expensive American steaks for longer, complicating President Trump’s efforts to bring down record beef prices.
Tyson Foods Inc., the country’s biggest meatpacker, underscored the difficulties for the industry last month as it announced it would close a Nebraska beef plant and reduce operations to one shift at a facility in Texas roughly 450 miles from the Mexican border.
At least one other big plant and several more regional ones could close in the next 18 months as a result of the ongoing supply pressures, Hyrum Egbert, an expert in the industry, told Bloomberg. The pressures are likely to be most felt in the South, where plants typically source some live cattle from Mexico, but no one is really exempt.
The Trump administration has been tackling record beef prices with a bevy of actions, including the recent lifting of steep tariffs on Brazilian shipments. Yet even as beef imports are projected to jump 15% this year to satisfy American’s appetite for the protein, they still only account for about 17% of the country’s supply, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And most of those supplies are lean trimmings that get blended with U.S. meat for ground beef.
That’s why many see the southern border as key to bringing down the price of steak, as shipments from Mexico would involve live cattle.
But livestock shipments from Mexico, where the screwworm was first detected a year ago, have been blocked since July following on-and-off halts that began in November 2024. That has prevented the spread of a pest that can kill cattle within days and once ravaged the U.S. industry before being eradicated decades ago.
The USDA continues to lead an aggressive response to the screwworm on both sides of the border, a USDA spokesperson said. “While we are making tremendous progress, there is still work to be done.”
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a recent interview that the “main driver” of higher beef prices is the issue of Mexican live cattle shipments and she’s hopeful “the ports will eventually open back up” and prices will come down as the pest is contained.
But the CEO of Omaha Steaks International Inc. said on Bloomberg Television that “Rebuilding the herd is the inevitable requirement for bringing supply up, and that is not a fast process.”
Speaking of Omaha Steaks, you’ve undoubtedly noticed how their long-time $89 introductory special is now $99.
The retail cost of ground beef in November climbed to $6.54 per pound from $5.63 per pound a year earlier, up 16%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For boneless stew meat, retail prices jumped 23% to $9.17 per pound from $7.43 per pound.
–A Baltimore city jury ordered Johnson & Johnson to pay over $1.5 billion in a lawsuit that alleged the company’s talc-based personal products gave a Maryland woman cancer.
The verdict is the largest ever returned against J&J for a single plaintiff, and is the latest in a string of legal judgments the company is facing over claims its talc products cause cancer.
Johnson & Johnson said it would appeal the verdict, which it called “egregious and patently unconstitutional.”
The Maryland woman claimed J&J’s baby powder exposed her to asbestos, leading to her diagnosis of mesothelioma in Jan. 2024.
Johnson & Johnson has faced thousands of lawsuits linking its talc powder to cancer. The company has previously attempted to resolve the litigation through a bankruptcy settlement, but those efforts have been rebuffed by the courts.
“These lawsuits are predicated on ‘junk science,’ refuted by decades of studies, that demonstrate Johnson’s Baby Powder is safe, does not contain asbestos and does not cause cancer,” said Erik Haas, worldwide vice president of litigation for J&J, in a statement.
—North Korean hackers had their biggest year yet for stealing cryptocurrencies in 2025.
Cyber attackers sponsored by the rogue regime have swiped over $2.02 billion in crypto since January, according to the latest findings from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.
The Chainalysis report shows thieves supported by North Korea have stolen over 50% more in crypto this year than in 2024, bringing their total identified haul from crypto theft since 2016 to $6.75 billion.
The crypto industry saw $3.4 billion in theft in 2025 through early December, according to Chainalysis. The bulk came from a single breach in late February, when Dubai-based exchange Bybit suffered a $1.5 billion theft at the hands of North Korea-affiliated hackers.
—Barnes & Noble is opening 60 new locations across the country in 2026, in addition to dozens opened this year. What a great story. We all thought the book store was dead.
The expansion follows a period of “strong sales” in existing stores, Barnes & Noble confirmed to USA TODAY.
“Barnes & Noble is enjoying a period of tremendous growth as the strategy to hand control of each bookstore to its local booksellers has proven so successful,” the bookstore chain said in a statement. “In 2024, Barnes & Noble opened more new locations in a single year than it had in the whole decade from 2009 to 2019.”
—Jim Beam is putting its trademark distillery on ice.
The iconic American bourbon brand announced it will stop producing whiskey at its facility in Clermont, Kentucky on January 1. The pause will last for the entirety of 2026.
The company will continue to distill at other locations, “while we take the opportunity to invest in site enhancements,” according to a statement.
It’s been a rough year for Kentucky’s $9 billion whiskey industry. Tariffs and boycotts are hitting business hard: Canada hasn’t bought any American-manufactured spirits since March in response to President Trump’s ongoing tariff regime. Overall, U.S. whiskey sales to Canada are down 60%.
As a result, the bourbon industry has halted production by more than 55 million proof-gallons, representing a 28% downshift.
Whiskey enthusiasts and concerned consumers are placing blame on Trump’s tariffs. Canada is a major export market for American spirits, serving as the second-largest behind the European Union.
Alcohol consumption across the U.S. is also on the down swing: the percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has dropped to 54%, the lowest percentage in Gallup’s 90-year history.
—Walt Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash hit the top of the global box office with an estimated $345 million weekend haul, but its domestic take fell short of analysts’ expectations.
The third installment of James Cameron’s fantasy adventure about the blue Na’vi people raked in $88 million across 3,800 screens in the U.S. and Canada, but analysts had been anticipating domestic sales of $110 million to $135 million.
Hollywood is under pressure to achieve $9 billion in box office sales for the year, a goal that seems to be in doubt.
Moviegoers shelled out an estimated nearly $178.7 million over the weekend, drawn by many new releases during the all-important holiday season, including the latest Avatar.
But Comscore’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian said with the industry’s estimated nearly $8.4 billion in domestic box office through Sunday, up 1% from this point in 2024, the potential for $9 billion remains.
Angel Studios’ David, a PG-rated animated family musical starring Asim Chaudhry, opened in second place at the domestic box office with $22 million, the highest-grossing faith-based animated theatrical opening of all-time, Comscore said.
Lionsgate’s The Housemaid, a R-rated thriller based on the best-selling book and starring Sydney Sweeney (oh baby) and Amanda Seyfried, debuted in third place with $19.0 million.
The first Avatar film, released in 2009, grossed $785.2 million in domestic box ticket sales and more than $2.9 billion worldwide, with 73% of its gross ticket sales outside the U.S. and Canada, according to BoxOfficeMojo. It clocked in at two hours, 42 minutes.
Avatar: the Way of Water, the 2022 follow-up, grossed $688.5 million at the domestic box office and $2.3 billion worldwide, with 71% of ticket sales outside the U.S. and Canada. The sequel was three hours, 12minutes long. [Avatar: Fire and Ash is three hours, 17 minutes. This matters. For one it impacts how often theaters can show a film.]
Dergarabedian said 2026 is shaping up to be the biggest domestic box office year since the pandemic, with a slate of blockbuster films including Steven Spielberg’s recently announced Disclosure Day and Tom Cruise’s new film Digger, set for release.
–There are a couple of longtime Christmas tree stands that I have passed almost daily doing my errands for the past 30+ years that I’ve been living in the area and two days before Christmas I noticed a few of ‘em still had lots of trees left, a real rarity in my area.
It’s the cost, with many consumers pulling back. Wreaths and garlands haven’t been selling well either, according to an extensive story in the Wall Street Journal.
Over the years, Christmas-tree sales have been a pretty good indicator of how overall consumer spending is doing, according to Oscar Sloterbeck of Evercore ISI.
And the artificial tree business this year hasn’t been so hot either, said Mac Harman, chief executive of Balsam Brands, a Redwood City, Calif.-based company that sells artificial trees, holiday décor and lights.
The goods Harman sells are mostly made in China and other Asian countries, and subject to high tariffs.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine:
—Going back to last weekend and talks in Miami between U.S. and, separately, Russian and Ukrainian officials, Steven Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, and Rustem Umerov, a senior Ukrainian security official who has been leading his country’s delegation, had said in joint statements on social media that the Ukrainians had “productive and constructive” meetings in Florida with U.S. and European representatives over the preceding three days.
The talks focused on aligning strategy between Ukraine, the United States and Europe, and American and Ukrainian representatives discussed “further development of a 20-point plan,’ the statement said. The 20-point plan, which is unlikely to be accepted by Russia, was put forth by Ukraine this month in an effort to push back against a proposal from President Trump that called on the Ukrainians to cede more land.
While in Miami, the American delegation met separately with Kirill Dmitriev, an envoy of President Putin. Russian state news media reported that Dmitriev, who is in charge of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, arrived in Miami on Saturday and went straight from the airport to a meeting with Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Afterward, Witkoff released a statement putting those talks in a good light.
“Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine,” he said on social media. “Russia highly values the efforts and support of the United States to resolve the Ukrainian conflict and re-establish global security.”
Dmitriev also described the talks as constructive, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
But then on Sunday in Moscow, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, suggested that the talks with American negotiators had not been productive.
Last Friday, President Putin, in his annual marathon news conference, accused Ukraine of refusing to end the war peacefully and framed Russia’s victory as inevitable.
“The strategic initiative is completely in the hands of the Russian forces,” Putin said.
For his part, in a late post Sunday on X, President Volodymyr Zelensky called the talks constructive, but earlier in the day he had cast doubts on the Kremlin’s commitment.
“Unfortunately, the real signals coming from Russia remain only negative: assaults along the frontline, Russian war crimes in border areas, and continued strikes against our infrastructure,” he said. “It is essential that the world does not remain silent about all of this.”
Monday, a senior Russian general was killed after a bomb exploded in his car in Moscow, according to investigators who pointed suspicion for the assassination at Ukraine.
Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov was in charge of the operational training department in the Russian General Staff.
This was the third time in the past 12 months that top Russian officers involved in the invasion of Ukraine have been killed in bomb attacks in Moscow.
Monday, Zelensky warned it was Russia’s “nature to make some kind of massive strike on our Christmas…especially on December 23, 24, and 25.”
Russian then struck overnight Tuesday, with 635 drones and 38 ballistic missiles deployed in the bombardment targeting Ukraine’s energy sector, civilian infrastructure and “essentially the entire infrastructure of daily life,” Zelensky said. Three people were killed, including a four-year old child.
The president added that the strikes, just before Christmas, “when people simply want to be with their families, at home, and safe” sends “an extremely clear signal about Russia’s priorities.”
“Putin still cannot accept that he must stop killing. And that means that the world is not putting enough pressure on Ukraine.”
Tuesday, Ukraine admitted that its troops had withdrawn from the embattled eastern town of Siversk “to preserve the lives of our soldiers and the combat capability of units,” adding that Russian forces had a “significant advantage in manpower.”
The capture of Siversk brings Russia closer to the last remaining “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk still in Ukrainian hands in the Donbas region.
But also Tuesday, President Zelensky said negotiations had “moved significantly closer to finalizing the documents.”
Russia is currently suggesting it could pull back its troops from four regions, including Sumy and Kharkiv, Zelensky said. But Moscow also wants Ukraine to withdraw from the area it still controls in Donetsk, which the U.S. believes should be designated as a “free economic” or “demilitarized” zone, he said.
“In fact, we are in a situation where the Russians want us to withdraw from the Donetsk region, while the Americans are trying to find a way for this to be ‘not a withdrawal’ – because we are against withdrawal,” Zelensky said.
Zelensky explained, more specifically, that if Ukraine was prepared to pull its heavy forces back by five, 10 or 40km in the 25% of Donetsk it still held to create an economic zone, making it virtually demilitarized, then Russia would have to do the same “accordingly by five, 10 or 40km.”
Russian troops are currently about 40km (25 miles) east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
But Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be impressed by the kind of compromise being proposed for Donetsk.
However, President Trump is pushing for a deal.
“They cannot tell President Trump, ‘Look we’re against a peaceful settlement,’” Zelensky told reporters. “If they try to obstruct everything, then President Trump would have to arm us heavily, while imposing all possible sanctions against them.”
Zelensky made clear that if a free economic zone were established in Donetsk it would be under Ukrainian administration and police – “definitely not the so-called Russian police.” The current front line would then become the boundary of the economic zone with international forces on the ground along the contact line to ensure no Russian infiltration.
Russia has so far rejected a European proposal to police any peace deal through a Coalition of the Willing as a “brazen threat.”
A referendum would need to be held on the whole peace plan, Zelensky said, and only a referendum could decide on the idea of a potential free economic zone in Donbas.
But a Kremlin emboldened by Moscow’s advances on the battlefield and restrained by the difficulty of selling the new peace plan to the Russian public as a victory is unlikely to accept it.
“This is an absolute mockery,” Aleksei Naumov, an analyst of international affairs based in Moscow, said of the new Ukrainian plan in a post on Telegram. “The idea is clear: Pitch this to the Americans as a ‘compromise,’ and then blame Russia for its failure.”
Over the past two years, Putin has consistently insisted on two main points: Ukraine must withdraw its forces from the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (the Donbas) and NATO membership must be ruled out. Ukraine has agreed to the latter point.
The continued flow of new recruits for Moscow means that Russia can afford to continue the war despite suffering heavy losses.
Wednesday, three people, including two police officers, were killed in another explosion in Moscow.
The two traffic officers were approaching a “suspicious individual” when an explosive device detonated. The two officers and a bystander died. The incident took place in the same area where Lt. Gen. Sarvarov was killed two days before.
–Last Saturday, a Russian missile strike on port infrastructure in Odesa in southern Ukraine killed eight people and wounded 27, Ukraine’s emergency service said Saturday.
The port was struck with ballistic missiles, said Oleh Kiper, the head of the Odesa region.
At the same time, Ukrainian drones hit a Russia oil rig, the military patrol ship Okhotnik and other facilities, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement Saturday. It said the ship was patrolling in the Caspian Sea near an oil and gas production platform.
The drilling platform at the Filanovsky oil and gas field was also hit. The facility is operated by Russian oil giant Lukoil.
Today, Friday, Ukraine said its drones struck the largest Russian gas processing plant in the Orenburg region, which also processes gas from one of Kazakhstan’s key oil and gas fields.
Long-range UAVs successfully hit the Orenburg processing plant, about 1,050 miles (1,700 km) east of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said.
Orenburg region authorities said there was only minor damage.
The day before, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces hit the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia’s Rostov region, Ukraine using UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.
Venezuela/Cuba: U.S. forces last Saturday boarded an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela for the second time in less than two weeks as President Trump continued to ramp up the pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The move came days after Trump announced a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers coming in and out of the South American country and follows the Dec. 10 seizure by American forces of an oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast.
Days later, the U.S. then began shadowing a third tanker, and a few days after that, a fourth.
Maduro has insisted the real purpose of the U.S. military operations is to force him from power.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said in an interview with Vanity Fair published last week that Trump “wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle.”
The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that the U.S. moved large numbers of special-operations aircraft, troops and equipment into the Caribbean area this week, giving Washington additional options for possible military action in Venezuela, according to U.S. officials and open source flight-tracking data.
Senate Republicans largely support Trump’s tactics of targeting Venezuelan boats, but some argue attacking the regime directly would go too far.
“I think we just have to be very careful when we’re dealing with regime change. It seems to backfire a lot,” Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) said.
On Monday, Trump continued to ramp up his rhetoric against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, warning him to “watch his ass” and close alleged drug factories in his country.
“I love the Colombian people,” Trump said. “But their new leader is a troublemaker, and he better watch it. He better close up those cocaine factories. There are at least three major cocaine factories. We know where they are.”
Meanwhile, Cubans are going hungry, suffering from spreading disease and sleeping outdoors with no electricity to power fans through the sweltering nights. A quarter of the population has fled during the island’s most prolonged economic crisis.
And it’s going to get worse, as the pressure being exerted on Nicolas Maduro has prevented some of the much-needed oil from reaching Cuba.
Venezuela has kept Cuba afloat over the years with cheap crude.
One tanker the U.S. has already seized was enroute with almost two million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
Were Venezuela’s oil shipments to stop, or sharply decline, Cubans know it would be devastating.
“It would be the collapse of the Cuban economy, no question about it,” said Jorge Pinon, a Cuban exile who tracks the island’s energy ties to Venezuela at the University of Texas at Austin.
Cuba’s deep reliance on Venezuela means Cuba’s Communist government is doing all it can to prevent Maduro – who trained in Cuba as a young man – from being forced from office. That means ensuring he is always surrounded by security and loyal aides, with no one carrying cellphones or other electronic devices. Cuba has countless intelligence service agents in Venezuela to root out traitors who might overthrow Maduro.
China: From Chris Buckley / New York Times:
‘China has been growing its stockpile of nuclear warheads by about 100 a year as its top leader, Xi Jinping, pushes to expand his nuclear options. But its production of warheads slowed last year, the Pentagon said, without specifying a cause.
“The U.S. Department of Defense’s latest annual report on China’s armed forces estimated that its warhead count was in the ‘low 600s’ by the end of 2024, ‘reflecting a slower rate of production.’ That count is roughly the same as the Pentagon’s last estimate that China had around 600 warheads as of mid-2024.
“Nonetheless, the latest report, released late on Tuesday, says Beijing is on track to have about 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, giving Xi a larger and more diverse range of those highly destructive weapons on missiles, submarines and bombers. In a crisis or war, he could use them to warn and deter – and in the ultimate extreme, strike – enemies.
“Perhaps just as important, the report says that even if China slowed its output of nuclear warheads, Xi and his commanders appear to be seeking to shorten the time it would take to launch a nuclear counterattack, if China’s nuclear forces came under fire. The shift to what Chinese military planners call an ‘early-warning counterstrike’ is intended to warn potential enemies not to underestimate China’s nuclear readiness and resolve.
“With this hair-trigger posture, the ‘warning of a missile strike enables a counterstrike launch before an enemy first strike can detonate,’ the Pentagon report says. ‘China likely will continue to refine and train on this capability throughout the rest of the decade.’
“Overall, the report says, ‘China’s historic military buildup has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable.’”
Separately, the People’s Daily, a Communist Party mouthpiece, said that “neo-militarism” – the resurgence of Japanese militarism after the end of World War II – had dealt a serious blow to bilateral relations and undermined regional peace and stability.
“Post-war Japan has failed to carry out a thorough reckoning with militarism…This ‘neo-militarism,’ cloaked in the guise of a ‘peaceful nation,’ is gradually becoming a real danger to Asia and the world at large,” the commentary stated on Thursday.
This is all part of a campaign by Chinese state media to escalate criticism of Japan, warning that Beijing has sufficient policy tools in reserve to respond should Tokyo endanger China’s core interests, which is laughable, frankly.
Greenland: President Trump said he’s appointed Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as “special envoy” to Greenland. “Jeff understands how essential Greenland is to our National Security, and will strongly advance our Country’s Interests for the Safety, Security, and Survival of our Allies, and indeed, the World,” he wrote in a social media post late Sunday.
Trump on Monday told reporters, “We need (Greenland) for national security. We have to have it. And he (Landry) wanted to lead the charge.
Denmark’s foreign minister on Monday called the appointment “completely unacceptable.” Speaking to Danish TV on Monday, Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, “As long as we have a kingdom in Denmark that consists of Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland, we cannot accept that there are those who undermine our sovereignty.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her counterpart from Greenland Jens-Frederik Nielsen were united in dismay. “We have said it before. Now, we say it again. National borders and the sovereignty of states are rooted in international law,” they said in a joint statement. “They are fundamental principles. You cannot annex another country. Not even with an argument about international security.”
“Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders and the U.S. shall not take over Greenland,” they said in the statement. “We expect respect for our joint territorial integrity.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a social media post following the announcement that the EU stood “in full solidarity with Denmark and the people of Greenland.”
“Territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental principles of international law. These principles are essential not only for the European Union, but for nations around the world.”
Syria: The U.S. military carried out a “massive strike” against the Islamic State in Syria, in response to a deadly attack on American forces in the country days before that killed three.
U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery “struck more than 70 targets at multiple locations across central Syria.” Aircraft from Jordan were also involved.
It said the operation “employed more than 100 precision munitions targeting” ISIS infrastructure and weapons sites.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation “is not the beginning of a war – it is a declaration of vengeance.
“If you target Americans – anywhere in the world – you will spend the rest of your brief, anxious life knowing the United States will hunt you, find you, and ruthlessly kill you.”
Nigeria: The U.S. launched strikes on Islamic State targets in Nigeria to protect the country’s Christian population from the terrorist group, President Trump said Thursday.
“The United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight there was.”
Trump has threatened to halt all aid and assistance to the country if it “continues to allow the killing of Christians.”
A Defense Department official said Nigeria’s government approved the Christmas Day strikes and worked with the U.S. to carry them out.
There was no report on casualties.
Random Musings
—Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: New numbers…36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. 25% of independents approve (Dec. 1-15). [Prior split was 36-60, 25.]
Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove (Dec. 24).
[The New York Times Dec. 23 average of polls has Trump at a 42% approval and 54% disapproval ratings. RealClearPolitics’ daily average is similar, at 43% approval and 53% disapproval.]
Re the new Gallup poll, overall approval of Congress is 17%, similar to November’s 14%.
Among the 12 U.S. leaders from Congress, the Cabinet, the Supreme Court or the Federal Reserve, Fed Chair Powell has the highest approval at 44%, followed by Sec. of State Marco Rubio at 41%.
The poll found 74% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, while 24% are satisfied.
–As I was going to post last week, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a conservative Republican and Trump loyalist, abruptly announced she was suspending her campaign for governor and would give up her seat in Congress next year (serving out her term).
“While spending precious time with my family this Christmas season, I have made the decision to suspend my campaign for governor and will not seek re-election to Congress,” she wrote in a post on X. “I did not come to this decision lightly for our family.”
It was stunning. But time and time again, despite her staunch support for Trump, he jilted her, including when he nominated her to UN ambassador in the second term, only to rescind the invitation in March, fearing Republicans would go on to lose her House seat if a special election were held. Stefanik returned to the House in frustration, and then started clashing with Speaker Mike Johnson.
Stefanik has recently been openly disdainful of Johnson’s leadership, and now she has joined Marjorie Taylor Greene in calling it quits (though Greene is exiting in January).
The congresswoman was viewed as the front-runner for the Republican nomination for governor to take on Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, yet Trump never endorsed her candidacy. And then just a few weeks ago, Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, joined the contest and now Trump has endorsed him, Blakeman and Trump being old friends.
Surveys did show Stefanik well behind Hochul in a head-to-head contest, but Blakeman’s entrance into the race raised the prospect of a potentially costly and damaging intraparty fight. The New York Times reported an ally familiar with Stefanik’s thinking said she was not interested in running a “suicide mission” and blamed Blakeman and his supporters for squandering the party’s shot at beating Hochul.
It didn’t help Stefanik’s messaging when Trump met last month with Zohran Mamdani, the socialist mayor-elect of New York City. Stefanik had spent weeks trying to tie Hochul to the incoming mayor. And there was Trump, lavishing Mamdani with praise!
—The Epstein files topic, in case you haven’t figured it out by now through my lack of writing on same, bores me.
Your heart goes out to the victims, and like most people I want the powerful who took advantage of them (and worse) brought to justice.
But it’s also clear President Trump has sought to protect his friends and big donors that might be involved, and we know of the names, while you have the usual suspects on the other side of the aisle.
The cover-up is massive, but if the files are being messed with and manipulated there’s not much the rest of us can do, including commenting on it.
For now, what is disgraceful are nuggets such as the previously unseen 1996 complaint accusing Epstein of stealing photographs of children.
In the end, “I mean, look, the administration has struggled for months and months with something they initially ginned up and then sort of tried to tamp down. So, any evidence or any kind of indication that there’s not a full reveal of this…will just plague them for months and months more,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has clashed with Trump, said last Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”
“So, my suggestion would be: Give up all the information…be transparent and release everything the law requires of you,” Paul added.
We then learned Wednesday that the Justice Department said prosecutors in New York have identified and handed over “a million more documents” potentially related to the probe, signaling a likely significant expansion of public disclosure.
In a post, the DOJ said: “Due to the mass volume of material, this process may take a few more weeks.”
A new Quinnipiac University poll found that just 26% of voters approved of the way the Trump administration is handling the files. Another 65% said they disapproved, while 9% did not have an opinion.
The poll also showed large shares of Republicans disapproving of Trump’s handling of the scandal. Twenty-nine percent of Republican voters disapprove while 55% approved and 16% did not have an answer.
—The Supreme Court on Tuesday refused to allow President Trump to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops in the Chicago area over the objection of Illinois officials, casting doubt on the viability of similar deployments in other American cities.
In its three-page unsigned ruling against the administration, the court refused to grant the president broad discretion to deploy the military in U.S. cities, citing an 1878 law, which bans the use of the military for domestic policing. It represented a rare departure from recent cases, in which the conservative majority has overwhelmingly sided with Mr. Trump in preliminary tests of presidential power.
Three conservative justices – Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito Jr., and Neil Gorsuch – noted their objections in lengthy dissents, with Justice Alito writing that “the protection of federal officers from potentially lethal attacks should not be thwarted.”
The administration pivoted and is sending Guardsmen to New Orleans.
—President Trump on Monday said he will oversee the development of a new class of Navy battleship – named after himself.
The move was cast in part as an effort to give the nation’s stagnant shipbuilding industry a shot in the arm, but also will upend the Navy’s ship-naming norms and thrust presidential politics firmly into the program from its genesis.
Trump said the new warships will have “guns and missiles at the highest level,” along with hypersonic weapons, electric ray guns and lasers. The first battleship, to be called the USS Defiant, will be part of a broader effort to build a modern ‘Golden Fleet’ of warships, Trump said, indicating that he will play a leading role in the program.
“The U.S. Navy will lead the design of these ships along with me, because I’m a really aesthetic person,” Trump said.
The Navy relied heavily on battleships during World War II but they were eventually deemed obsolete and decommissioned. The last one to see active service was the USS Missouri, which was decommissioned in 1992 and turned into a museum in Hawaii’s Pearl Harbor.
Separately, the U.S. Fleet of F-35s, known for being the most expensive defense program ever, wildly over budget and plagued by defects, was only available to fly half of the time because of poor maintenance by Lockheed Martin, a government watchdog said.
The average availability rate of F-35s throughout fiscal year 2024 was just 50% partly because the Pentagon “did not consistently hold Lockheed Martin accountable for poor performance related to F-35 sustainment,” according to a report from the Defense Department’s Office of the Inspector General.
While “the aircraft were not available to fly half of the time” and the maintenance meant the jets didn’t meet “minimum military service requirements,” the Pentagon still paid Lockheed $1.7 billion without any economic adjustment, according to the report, issued on Dec. 19.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Dec. 23, 12:32 AM…
“The Failing New York Times, and their lies and purposeful misrepresentations, is a serious threat to the National Security of our Nation. Their Radical Left, Unhinged Behavior, writing FAKE Articles and Opinions in a never ending way, must be dealt with and stopped. THEY ARE A TRUE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DJT”
Personally, at 12:32 AM, I’d be snuggling up with Melania…just sayin’….
—Three men will stand trial next year after a silver steward employed at the official residence of the French president was arrested this week for the theft of items of silverware and table service worth thousands of euros, the Paris prosecutor’s office said.
The Elysee Palace’s head steward reported the disappearance, with the estimated loss ranging between 15,000 and 40,000 euros ($17,500-$47,000).
Around 100 objects were found in the silver steward’s personal locker, his vehicle and their home. Among the items recovered were copper saucepans, Sevres porcelain, a Rene Lalique statuette and Baccarat champagne coupes.
Just kind of funny after the big Louvre heist.
—California has been hit by torrential rains as the result of multiple atmospheric rivers.
Southern California, which typically gets a ½ inch to 1 inch of rain this time of year, saw widespread totals of 4 to 8 inches, with as much as 11 inches in some parts of Los Angeles County, prompting evacuations and major road closures.
As of Thursday evening, as many as 100,000 people in the state were without power. At least three people were killed.
Heavy snow hit parts of the Sierra Nevada, with “considerable” avalanche risk around Lake Tahoe. Good for the reservoirs, however.
Meanwhile, we had record warmth this week, including all-time December highs for Lubbock, Texas (85 degrees), North Platte, Neb. (78), and Tucson, Ariz. (85).
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4561…more record highs…Silver $78.40…parabolic move higher….
Oil $56.77
Bitcoin: $87,560 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $2.84; Diesel: $3.57 [$3.04 – $3.51 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 12/22-12/26
Dow Jones +1.2% [48710]
S&P 500 +1.4% [6929]
S&P MidCap +0.7%
Russell 2000 +0.2%
Nasdaq +1.2% [23593]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-12/26/25
Dow Jones +14.5%
S&P 500 +17.8%
S&P MidCap +8.1%
Russell 2000 +13.6%
Nasdaq +22.2%
Bulls 52.8
Bears 17.0…no new readings this week.
Happy New Year! Travel safe.
Brian Trumbore
