[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,393
Wall Street and the Economy
2025 Equity Returns
Dow Jones +13.0%
S&P 500 +16.4%
Nasdaq +20.4%
Russell 2000 +11.3%
[Foreign indices in local currencies]
Tokyo Nikkei +26.2%
Shanghai Composite +18.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +16.7%
FTSE-100 [London] +21.5%
DAX [Frankfurt] +23.0%
But the prize goes to South Korea’s KOSPI index, +75.6%!
It was a year highlighted by Trump’s tariff pronouncements and artificial intelligence (AI)-related stories.
April 2, President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, after the market closed, stunned financial markets worldwide. The president announced sweeping tariffs with seemingly no rhyme or reason for the figures he laid out, regardless of how much trade a particular nation did with the U.S., and the markets tanked…the S&P 500 dropping 10% in just two trading days, and by April 8, the S&P 500 was down 19% from its February 19 high.
But then after the close on April 8, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was pausing his tariff actions for 90 days, while substantially lowering his Reciprocal Tariff during this period by 10%, “effective immediately,” while also noting the U.S. would raise its tariffs on China to 125%.
The markets’ response was joyous, the S&P rising nearly 10% the next day, Nasdaq 12%.
Asked about the reason behind the ‘pause,’ Trump cited what he called a “yippy” stock and bond market.
And by the end of the year, those who bought the ultimate dip in April were up 37% on the S&P as 2025 came to a close.
Trump on Truth Social this past Saturday morning:
“Tariffs are creating GREAT WEALTH, and unprecedented National Security for the USA. Trade deficit has been cut by 60%, totally unheard of. 4.3% GDP*, and going way up. No inflation!!! We are respected as a Country again.”
*Speaking to reporters this week, Trump touted the 4.3% third-quarter GDP figure, noting it was strong “despite the shutdown.” The shutdown started October 1st.
Regarding tariffs, this week the president then delayed increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, easing the pace of his levies amid voter frustration over price levels.
The higher tariffs were due to take effect Thursday, but are now set to take effect Jan. 1, 2027.
Under a September proclamation, Trump had originally directed that tariffs on “certain upholstered wooden products” would rise to 30% on Jan. 1 from 25%, while tariffs on kitchen cabinets and vanities would rise to 50% from 25%. His Wednesday proclamation delayed that move, and the existing 25% tariff remains in place, the White House said.
The U.S. “continues to engage in productive negotiations with trade partners to address trade reciprocity and national security concerns with respects to imports of wood products,” according to a fact sheet put out by the administration, suggesting that talks may yield pacts to further defer the new levies.
As for 2026, I took out the legal pad and jotted down some +’s and –‘s….the potential positives and negatives.
Positives: tax cuts, tax refunds, a compliant Federal Reserve (as in potential decreased Fed independence once Trump picks his new Fed chief), continued strong AI spending, solid earnings, and even big domestic events such as the World Cup and USA 250, which can help drive consumption.
Negatives: tariff uncertainty (including the looming Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs, and higher tariff pass through rates from businesses to consumers), the USMCA trade deal could unravel, we could have another government shutdown by end of January, the job market (where will the workers come from to build all the AI-related data centers), and related to this, will companies pull back on capital expenditures, and sticky inflation that clashes with the new Trump Fed. The bond market, particularly on the long end, which directly impacts mortgage rates, may not cooperate.
And then there are all the geopolitical concerns. We have no resolution to the war in Ukraine, and China will continue to ramp up the pressure on Taiwan. Trump is going to China in April. Will this matter in terms of President Xi Jinping’s actions and timing?
But back here domestically, yes, “affordability” will be an overriding issue.
I have a simple example. Yes, traditionally, as we went about our day-to-day business, gasoline and food prices were the most obvious categories that we’d focus on, paying for same daily and weekly.
But then rising healthcare costs, home prices, rent, auto insurance…they all emerged as bigger topics in terms of consumer sentiment.
So, gasoline prices are down roughly 20 cents from a year ago and once a week you fill up a 10-gallon tank…just trying to think of the average American, young and old, commuters, non-commuters…over 50 weeks, you’ve saved $100.
But my auto insurance for 2026 rose 20.4%…an extra $464 a year! Just one category. That’s the affordability issue in a nutshell. So President Trump and, before him, President Biden, can ignore what we all see day-to-day, but then there is reality.
Back to the job market, it will remain a hot topic as well.
Chris Cutter of the Wall Street Journal had a good piece headlined “Companies Are Outlining Plans for 2026. Hiring Isn’t One of Them.”
“At a gathering of CEOs in Midtown Manhattan this month organized by the Yale School of Management, 66% of leaders surveyed said they planned to either fire workers or maintain the size of their existing teams next year. Only a third indicated they planned to hire….
“The reluctance to add staff reflects concerns about the economy, along with the belief that artificial intelligence could handle more work inside major companies. Other employers hired too many people after the pandemic and are still correcting for that.
“ ‘We’re close to zero job growth. That’s not a healthy labor market,’ Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said at the Yale summit. ‘When I go around and talk to CEOs around the country, everybody’s telling me, ‘Look, we’re not hiring because we’re waiting to try to figure out what happens with AI. What jobs can we replace? What jobs do we don’t?’’
“The pause in hiring could be temporary if companies decide they do require more people to meet their growth goals. But the mood now, Waller said, is that companies simply don’t need any extra labor.
“ ‘Everybody’s afraid for their jobs. I’m dead serious,’ said Waller.”
And employees are sticking around. As IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said, citing employees are leaving the tech giant at the lowest rate in 30 years: “People aren’t looking to change jobs,” he said. “That then leads to less hiring because people aren’t leaving.”
At Wells Fargo, CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank expected to have fewer people as it heads into next year, saying he expects AI’s impact on staffing levels to be “extremely significant.”
[According to a new Morgan Stanley analysis reported by the Financial Times, more than 200,000 European banking jobs could vanish by 2030 as lenders lean into AI and shutter physical branches. That’s roughly 10% of the workforce at 35 major banks.]
Meanwhile, as noted above, one of the other topics dominating the discussion early on this year will be President Trump’s pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.
Trump posted on Truth Social recently: “I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever. I want to have a Market the likes of which we haven’t had in many decades. Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!”
In other words, the next Fed chair will only get the job having precommitted to lowering interest rates.
Trump on Monday said he might sue Jerome Powell for what he called “gross incompetence,” injecting new tension into the already strained relationship between the White House and the central bank.
Citing the Fed’s multibillion-dollar renovation project, Trump commented while alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “It’s gross incompetence against Powell. We’re going to probably bring a lawsuit against him.”
Just so stupid.
As for the week’s economic data, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 0.3% month over month in October, the fourth consecutive period of decline in U.S. home prices. Year over year, the price rose 1.3%, the smallest annual increase since July 2023, reinforcing signs the U.S. housing market is settling into a much slower growth phase.
The December Chicago PMI manufacturing reading was 43.5, 50 the dividing line between growth and contraction, the 25th consecutive month under 50.
The Fed released the minutes from its December meeting and when they met to cut interest rates a third straight time to end the year, some officials said they were reluctant to support more easing in the near future, witness the 9-3 vote on the Open Market Committee and six of 19 officials signaling opposition overall. But most of the Fed’s policy committee thought rates could eventually fall further if inflation declines. [It ain’t, says moi.]
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth is 3.0%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.15%, compared with 6.91% on January 2nd. This could be the low.
Next week, a key jobs report and ISM readings on manufacturing and the service sector.
Europe and Asia
We had December PMIs for the eurozone today (now the EA21 with the addition of Bulgaria), courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, and the manufacturing reading was 48.8, a 9-month low. Service sector readings to follow next week.
Germany 47.0 (10-mo. low)
France 50.7 (42-mo. high)
Italy 47.9
Spain 49.6
Netherlands 51.1
Ireland 52.2
Greece 52.9
UK 50.6 (15-mo. high)
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank
“Demand for manufactured products from the eurozone is slowing down again. Significantly fewer orders, declining order backlogs and continued inventory reduction are the most obvious indicators of this. It is not surprising that companies are continuing to cut staff in this environment. Companies seem neither able nor willing to build momentum for the coming year but are instead exercising caution, which is poison for the economy….
“There were some surprising regional developments in December. Spain’s manufacturing sector, which had been expanding almost continuously since 2024, has now slipped slightly into decline. France’s manufacturers, on the other hand, which have practically been in decline for three years, are showing signs of life again in December. The sharp slump in German and Italian industry is another disappointment. The relatively good performance in Greece and Ireland cannot compensate for this. Overall, it will not be easy for the manufacturing sector of the eurozone to gain a foothold in 2026. However, expansionary fiscal policy could help.”
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for December was 50.1 vs. 49.2 prior, ending an eight-month contraction streak. That pickup was confirmed by a separate private survey, the RatingDog manufacturing reading being 50.1 as well. The NBS’ service sector figure for the month was 50.2 vs. 49.5 prior.
President Xi Jinping declared China is set to meet its economic targets for 2025, with growth expected to reach “about 5%,” providing an upbeat backdrop to the data showing a recovery, albeit a halting one, in the manufacturing sector.
Xi told the country’s top political advisory body New Year’s Eve: “China’s economy has forged ahead under pressure, developing toward the new and the excellent while demonstrating strong resilience and vitality,” as reported by the state Xinhua News Agency. “We have successfully achieved our main economic and social development targets.”
Nothing from Japan this week. Their PMI readings come Sunday and next Tuesday.
South Korea’s December manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up from 49.4 in November. Taiwan’s was 50.9, up from 48.8 the prior month. Somewhat encouraging.
Street Bytes
—The “Santa Claus Rally” is defined as the last five trading days of the year, and the first two of the new year, and there was no such rally in 2025, as it was the first time since the Nasdaq was created in 1971 that the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended the same year on a losing streak of four days or more.
For the holiday shortened week overall, after a mixed performance today, the Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 500 1.0% and Nasdaq declined 1.5%.
And I can’t help but note that today was the first day for new Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel, after Warren Buffett, 95, retired and passed the torch. Buffett, who said earlier in the year he was “going quiet. Sort of,” remains chairman. I’m sure we’ll get little notes from him now and then. At least I hope so. He’s a national treasure.
As for my prediction for equities in 2026, I have been way too pessimistic the last few years, like a year ago I said the S&P and Dow would be down 8%, Nasdaq 6%. I’ll say the markets are flat in 2026 when we wrap up next December, with inflation a big issue, at least the first six months of the year, and then the back half could be all about China/Taiwan, and possibly President Trump’s health. [The midterm elections aren’t a market moving event, until Election Day.]
—U.S. Treasury Yields
1/2/26
6-mo. 3.60% 2-yr. 3.48% 10-yr. 4.19% 30-yr. 4.87%
10-year up six basis points on the week.
12/31/25
6-mo. 3.60% 2-yr. 3.47% 10-yr. 4.17% 30-yr. 4.84%
12/31/24
6-mo. 4.27% 2-yr. 4.24% 10-yr. 4.57% 30-yr. 4.78%
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025, which the 2-year reacted to, but the 10-year not as much.
—Gold finished the year up 70% for its best gain since 1979, ditto Silver, which soared over 100% since the end of June, and hit $80 on Sunday (at that point up over 170% for the year).
Falling interest rates and rising geopolitical risks helped, but in the case of silver it has been strong industrial demand and they aren’t mining a lot of it*.
*The world’s pure-play silver deposits are mostly exhausted.
As in silver’s run to a great extent just makes sense. And gold is gold…it’s been the ultimate store of value for ages. Like since the Stone Age.
Well, gold and silver tumbled Monday. After hitting the $80 level, silver had its worst day in five years (Feb. 2021), down nearly 9%, but then it bounced right back on Tuesday, as has been its wont during this spectacular rise, only to plummet again on Wednesday to finish the year at $71.20.
Monday’s swoon was caused in part by exchange operator CME Group increasing margin requirements to ensure metals traders put down more cash on their bets. A similar move by CME in 2021 helped cool some of the speculative mania around silver futures, GameStop shares and more that was linked to the online forum WallStreetBets.
—Nvidia is scrambling to meet strong demand for its H200 AI chips from Chinese technology companies and has approached contract manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to ramp up production, sources told Reuters.
Chinese tech companies have placed orders for more than 2 million H200 chips for 2026, while Nvidia currently holds just 700,000 units in stock. Another source said Nvidia has asked TSMC to begin production of the additional chips, and work is expected to start in the second quarter of 2026.
The moves raise concerns over whether there could be further tightening in global AI chip supplies as Nvidia now has to strike the right balance between meeting robust Chinese demand and addressing constrained supplies elsewhere.
They could also intensify risks for Nvidia, as Beijing has yet to greenlight any shipments of H200 chips. The Trump administration only recently allowed exports of the H200 to China (with a 25% fee), reversing the Biden administration’s ban on advanced AI chip exports to China.
The bulk of the orders of over 2 million ships for 2026 has come from major Chinese internet companies which view the H200 as a significant upgrade over chips currently available to them, the sources told Reuters.
Chinese officials are still deciding whether to allow H200 imports amid concerns that access to advanced foreign chips could slow development of the domestic AI semiconductor industry.
—Tesla Inc. vehicle sales fell 9% last year, dropping the Elon Musk-led company well behind China’s BYD Co. in the global ranks of EV makers.
Fourth-quarter deliveries declined 16% to 418,277 vehicles, Tesla said in a statement today, less than expectations.
For the full year, BYD delivered almost 2.26 million EVs to Tesla’s 1.64 million. [Two years ago, analysts were predicting Tesla would deliver more than 3 million vehicles in 2025. The average estimate had plunged to 1.8 million.]
Musk has been trying to divert your eyes from declining sales of his cars to ‘progress’ in his longstanding effort to start a robotaxi business. But while the company began driverless testing toward the end of the year, consumers thus far are only able to summon rides from small numbers of cars in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area with safety supervisors in the front seats.
BYD pulled away from Tesla last year after coming up short of its U.S. counterpart in 2024. The company has also sold more than 2 million plug-in hybrids each of the last two years as well.
–This was not a good week for air travel in the U.S. during the holidays. Last Friday, the day after Christmas, 900 flights were cancelled at New York’s three major airports – JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark – due to a snowstorm that didn’t prove to be as bad as forecast, but the airlines have to plan ahead and think about where they want each plane positioned post-storm. But the stories from passengers stranded were rather sad.
Saturday and Sunday each saw 11,000 delays within, into or out of the U.S., with another 10,000 Monday. Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International has been a total disaster on the delay front.
Out West, on Christmas Eve and Christmas, vehicles got stuck near Castle Peak in the Sierra Nevada Mountains over Donner Summit, the California Highway Patrol said, as Donner Peak saw 58 inches of snow and Bear Valley 55 inches.
California is not going to have a reservoir issue next summer between the record rain and snow.
But Colorado and South Dakota’s Black Hills (the latter I follow daily) have been warm and bone dry. Areas to watch come fire season.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
1/1/26…101 percent of 2025
12/31…105 percent of 2024
12/30…102
12/29…100
12/28…107
12/27…98
12/26…99
12/25…101
12/24…108
12/23…102
[Finally, stable numbers vs. a year ago…it was driving me nuts how we’d go from 120 to 80 to 110 to 85. Not useful data at that point.]
—Lukoil, one of Russia’s energy giants, arrived in the U.S. in 2000 when it bought Getty Petroleum Marketing in what was the first purchase of a publicly traded U.S. company by a Russian corporation.
As Bloomberg reported, four years later it acquired and rebranded a group of Mobil stations from ConocoPhillips that were scattered across New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. At one point it owned more than 1,000 sites but whittled that number down to the current tally of fewer than 200.
So I bring this up because virtually every day in doing my errands, I pass a Lukoil station in next-door Chatham, N.J., and because I’m kind of aware of stuff, especially after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, I’ve been surprised this particular station is still under the Lukoil brand. Plus, it’s notorious for selling gas 50 cents more than the next highest-priced station in the area. I virtually never see anyone buying gas there. [A mile down the same road you can buy gas for 80 cents less.]
Of course, Lukoil is under U.S. sanctions, and as Bloomberg noted, recently, dozens of gas station franchise owners met at an area hotel conference room to discuss their predicament.
These are independent operators who typically sign three-year contracts with Lukoil North America, under which they pay monthly rent and real estate taxes for their stations, and the company supplies them with fuel, along with short-term financing.
But with the latest round of sanctions on Russia’s energy giants, these guys risk losing everything.
—Saks Global is preparing to file for bankruptcy within days after missing an interest payment on the debt it took on to buy Neiman Marcus, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Saks has struggled financially since taking on the debt burden in 2024, and the luxury retail chain’s delays in paying vendors have contributed to weaker merchandise offerings – and sales.
The planned Chapter 11 filing is expected to mark the highest-profile department store bankruptcy since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Among Saks’ options for raising cash is a potential sale of a 49% stake in Bergdorf Goodman, the high-end department store acquired as part of its $2.7 billion merger with Neiman Marcus…three fabled names that have helped pioneer the luxury retail market.
—The weekend’s movies brought in an estimated $177.2 million in domestic ticket sales, making this year’s estimated total of $8.76 billion better than last year’s but still short of Hollywood’s $9 billion revenue target.
Walt Disney’s Avatar: Fire and Ash stayed No. 1 at the domestic box office for a second straight weekend, raking in another $64 million and bringing its total ticket sales to an estimated $217.7 million since its Dec. 19 debut, according to Comscore. The film sold another $542.7 million internationally, for a $760.4 million worldwide total.
The Christmas box office grossed $68 million, compared with $69.9 million in 2024.
Disney’s Zootopia 2, which opened on Nov. 26, sold another $20 million, bringing its total domestic box office to an estimated $321.4 million, with international ticket sales bringing in another $1.1 billion, for a worldwide total of $1.4 billion.
Comscore now projects a final annual domestic box office of $8.9 billion, with 2026 looking brighter owing to “an absolutely brilliant lineup of potential blockbusters,” according to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian.
Separately, China’s box office revenue jumped nearly 22% in 2025, driven by a record-breaking domestic animated hit that helped the market rebound from a soft patch, according to data released by the China Film Administration on Thursday.
Total ticket sales reached 51.8 billion yuan ($7.4 billion).
Local films continue to dominate the world’s second-largest movie market. Of the 51 films grossing more than 100 million yuan ($14.3 million), 33 were domestic titles.
The animated fantasy Ne Zha 2 drew a record 324 million viewers and contributed nearly a third of total annual sales.
–We note the passing of Louis Gerstner, the former CEO and chairman of IBM, who died on Saturday, aged 83.
IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna announced Gerstner’s death in an email sent Sunday to employees, but did not provide a cause of death.
“Lou arrived at IBM at a moment when the company’s future was genuinely uncertain. His leadership during that period reshaped the company. Not by looking backward, but by focusing relentlessly on what our clients would need next,” Krishna said in his email.
Gerstner moved to IBM from being the CEO of RJR Nabisco in April 1993 after stints at American Express and McKinsey, becoming the first outsider to run Big Blue, as IBM was called.
During the nine years he led the computer giant, he was widely credited with turning around a company that was facing potential bankruptcy, pivoting the company to business services. He radically changed IBM’s culture and focus while slashing expenses, selling assets and repurchasing stock.
Gerstner retired as CEO of IBM in 2002, with the stock some 800% higher than when he had started, moving to become the chairman of Carlyle Group until his retirement in 2008.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Prior to talks between U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators last weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Europe “the main obstacle to peace.”
“After the change of administration in the U.S., Europe and the European Union have become the main obstacle to peace,” Lavrov said in an interview with TASS, adding that should European troops be stationed in Ukraine, they would “become a legitimate target” for Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team then met with Trump and his negotiators at Mar-a-Lago Sunday afternoon, the leaders meeting for three hours of talks following what Trump said was an “excellent,” two-and-a-half-hour phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump insisted he believed Putin still wants peace, even as Russia launched another round of attacks on Ukraine while Zelensky flew to the United States for the latest round of negotiations.
But President Trump said Sunday that Ukraine and Russia are “closer than ever before” to a peace deal after the talks, but he acknowledged the negotiations are complex and could still break down.
“I do believe that we have the makings of a deal. It’s good for Ukraine, good for everybody. It’s very important,” Trump told reporters while standing alongside Zelensky. “There’s nothing more important. I solved eight wars, and this is the most difficult one.”
If the war continues, “millions of additional people will be killed, millions, and no one wants that,” Trump said.
Zelensky said: “We discussed all the aspects of the peace framework,” saying it’s “90% agreed.” He added, “U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees, 100% agreed. U.S., Europe, Ukraine security guarantees, almost agreed. Military dimension, 100% agreed. Prosperity plan being finalized.”
Among the major sticking points left to be resolved: the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region. Trump told reporters the issue was still unresolved, but “getting a lot closer.” Russia currently controls Crimea, along with most of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas), but Zelensky has remained insistent that Ukraine does not cede territory.
Under the peace proposal, fighting in Donetsk would be halted along current battle lines with Ukrainian and Russian forces withdrawing to create a demilitarized zone overseen by international forces.
But another key sticking point has been the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently occupied by Russia. Zelensky said last week that Washington was pressing for the facility to be jointly owned by all three sides, while Ukraine is offering to share the plant only with the U.S.
If the U.S. and Ukraine agree on the full proposal, it must be presented to Russia to see if President Putin and the Kremlin will sign off.
Trump said he is aiming to convene a meeting with Zelensky and European leaders in January. Sunday, Trump and Zelensky spoke on the phone with French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer and Germany Chancellor Merz.
Zelensky then said Monday that the United States is offering Ukraine security guarantees for a period of 15 years as part of a proposed peace plan, though he would prefer an American commitment of up to 50 years to deter Russia from further attempts to seize its neighbor’s land by force.
Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said the Trump-Putin call Sunday was initiated by the U.S. side and was “friendly, benevolent and businesslike.” Ushakov added that a “bold, responsible, political decision is needed from Kyiv” on the fiercely contested Donbas region and other matters in dispute for there to be a “complete cessation” of hostilities.
“Given the situation on the front line, Kyiv must not delay making that decision,” Ushakov said.
Monday, President Trump said he spoke a second time with Putin but that there were still “very thorny issues” to get through before solidifying a peace plan with Ukraine.
But then Trump expressed frustration at Ukraine for claims from Putin and Russian officials that a Ukrainian drone attacked one of Putin’s residences, something Kyiv has denied vehemently.
“It’s one thing to be offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that. …I was very angry about it,” Trump said, adding that he learned of the alleged attack during his call with Putin.
Foreign Minister Lavrov claimed Russia would review its negotiating position in talks as a result of the attack.
President Zelensky wrote on X: “Russia is at it again, using dangerous statements to undermine all achievements of our shared diplomatic efforts with President Trump’s team….
“The alleged ‘residence strike’ story is a complete fabrication intended to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war. Typical Russian lies.”
“Ukraine does not take steps that can undermine diplomacy. To the contrary, Russia always takes such steps. This is one of the many differences between us,” Zelensky added.
But Trump had fallen for Putin’s lie hook, line and sinker. As of this posting, the Kremlin still has provided zero evidence of the attack.
And on Wednesday, U.S. national security officials said that Ukraine didn’t target Putin or one of his residences. That conclusion is supported by a CIA assessment that found no attempted attack against Putin had occurred, the CIA declining to comment.
Ukraine was looking to strike a military target that Kyiv had hit before, located in the same region as Putin’s country residence but not close by, a U.S. official said.
President Trump on Wednesday then appeared to play down the Russian claim, posting a link to a New York Post editorial and sharing the headline: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.’
–Meanwhile, Saturday, on the eve of Zelensky’s meeting with Trump, Russian forces hit Kyiv with a massive airstrike – more than 500 drones and 40 missiles over 10 hours, including Kinzhal hypersonic weapons, that were launched primarily at the capital’s energy and civilian infrastructure, Zelensky said on Telegram and X.
“Russian representatives engage in lengthy talks, but in reality, Kinzhals and ‘Shaheds’ speak for them,” Zelensky said.
The barrage, which continued into Saturday morning, killed two people and injured at least 32, disrupting power and water supplies, and sparking fires across several districts. About one-third of the city of over 3 million was left without heat with temperatures hovering around freezing.
Several high-rise residential buildings were set ablaze.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defense systems had intercepted and destroyed almost 200 Ukrainian drones over several Russian regions, including eight over Moscow.
The next day, Russia carried out a large strike on Kherson in Ukraine’s southeast using multiple launch rocket systems, leaving much of the city without power.
And Russia, seemingly daily, is targeting the transport and port infrastructure critical to Ukraine’s economy in Odesa. The people there have gone days on end without heat and running water this winter as the city is especially vulnerable to Russian assaults on its power grid, Odesa relying on imported power as it produces little of its own.
–U.S. researchers, studying satellite imagery, have concluded Moscow is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that could bolster Russia’s ability to deliver missiles across Europe.
The researchers’ assessment broadly aligns with U.S. intelligence findings.
President Putin has made clear his intention to place intermediate-range Oreshnik missiles, with an estimated range of up to 3,400 miles, in Belarus, but the exact location has not been previously reported.
The Kremlin has been increasingly relying on the threat of nuclear weapons as it seeks to deter NATO members from arming Kyiv with weapons that can strike deep inside Russia.
—The BBC, along with independent outlet Mediazone and a group of volunteers has been keeping track of published obituaries in Russian sources to gauge the number of dead Russia has suffered in the war, and this week the BBC said 40% more obituaries of soldiers were published compared with the previous year.
Almost 160,000 Russians are confirmed dead, but the real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts the BBC has consulted believe the analysis of cemeteries, war memorials and obituaries might represent 45%-65% of the total.
That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.
Separately, as noted in the Wall Street Journal, Klye Glen of the UK-based Centre for Information Resilience, says his data shows Russia has launched about 52,000 drones in attacks on Ukraine in 2025, compared with the around 14,000 launched between 2022 and 2024. [Admittedly, this latter figure seems low to me.]
—
China: Beijing held large-scale military drills around Taiwan simulating the seizure and blockade of the island’s key areas this week, as a warning to “separatist forces.”
The army, navy, air force and rocket forces were dispatched for the drills which included live-fire exercises, the People’s Liberation Army said.
The drills are taking place days after the U.S. announced the sale of one of its largest weapons packages to Taiwan worth $11 billion. That move drew sharp protests from Beijing which in turn sanctioned U.S. defense firms.
Taiwan’s push to ramp up its defense has also angered Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as its territory.
Taiwan’s presidential office criticized the Chinese drills, calling them a challenge to international norms. Taipei deployed its own forces and missile systems to monitor the situation, placing them on “high alert” to defend Taiwan and “protect our people,” the ministry said.
In a post on Weibo, the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command – in charge of the Taiwan Strait – described the upcoming military exercise as a “shield of justice.”
“All those plotting independence will be annihilated upon encountering the shield!” the post read.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said: “Any sinister schemes to obstruct China’s reunification are doomed to fail.”
While China has long called for the “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, it also has a law stating it will resort to “non-peaceful means” to prevent the island’s “secession.”
Beijing has accused Taiwan’s President Lai ching-te of pursuing “Taiwan independence.” The president maintains Taiwan is already a sovereign nation and therefore has no need to formally declare independence.
On Sunday, Lai said in a local television interview that Taiwan needed to “keep raising the difficulty so [China] can never meet the standard” for an invasion.
He also said that his administration was committed to “maintaining the status quo” and would not provoke China – though he added that peace relies on “real strength.”
In a New Year’s Day speech broadcast live from his office in Taipei, Lai said Taiwan was determined to boost its defenses.
Chen Binhua, spokesman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said Lai’s speech “once again peddled the fallacy of ‘Taiwan independence,’ incited cross-strait confrontation and reiterated the old tune of ‘democracy versus authoritarianism.’”
President Trump described China’s drills as routine, noting that such exercises had occurred “for 20-25 years.” He said he was not worried about the escalation and cited his personal rapport with President Xi.
“I have a great relationship with President Xi, and he hasn’t told me anything about [the drills]. I certainly have seen it,” Trump told reporters.
“No, nothing worries me. They’ve been doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area,” he said of the drills, which have ramped up in recent years.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Tuesday called for a new paradigm for engagement with the United States, emphasizing the need for stable, cooperative ties while firmly defending what he described as China’s core interests, namely Taiwan.
During a speech this week in Beijing, the foreign minister also accused Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of “openly challenging” Chinese territorial sovereignty after she suggested last month that a potential Taiwan conflict could threaten Japan’s survival.
Wang, who was speaking at the Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations, reiterated that Taiwan was an internal affair and the “core of core interests” for Beijing, framing reunification as a historical mission to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He said provocations by “Taiwan independence” forces and large-scale U.S. arms sales would be firmly opposed and countered. The remarks coincided with the large-scale PLA operation around Taiwan, code-named Justice Mission 2025.
Wang said of U.S.-China relations: “When China and the U.S. cooperate, both sides benefit; when they confront each other, both are harmed,” urging both sides to address concerns on the basis of equality, respect and reciprocity.
The Japanese government then expressed concern to Beijing over the military drills around Taiwan amid tensions between the two countries already strained by the Japanese prime minister’s comments nearly two months about a Taiwan contingency.
Japan said Chinese coastguard vessels have patrolled near the Diaoyu Islands – which are at the center of a separate long-time dispute between the two countries – for a record number of days this year.
Thursday, in his New Year’s Address, President Xi insisted again that his country would annex Taiwan.
“We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship,” he said. “The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable.”
Taiwan President Lai, in his own New Year’s address, pledged to resist China’s “expansionist ambitions” and bolster the island’s self-defense.
Israel/Gaza/Iran: Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago Monday, President Trump said he hoped to reach phase two of the Gaza peace plan “very quickly,” as he warned Hamas would have “hell to pay” if it did not disarm soon.
Trump’s 20-point peace plan requires the militant group to disarm. During a press conference with Netanyahu after their meeting, Trump said Israel had “lived up to the plan 100%,” despite continuing attacks by its military in Gaza.
Asked how quickly Hamas and Israel should move to phase two of the peace plan, Trump said: “As quickly as we can. But there has to be disarmament.”
Speaking about Hamas, he said: “If they don’t disarm as they agreed to do, they agreed to it, and then there will be hell to pay for them.
“They have to disarm in a fairly short period of time.”
Trump also said reconstruction in Gaza could “begin pretty soon.”
Under the second phase of the plan, a technocratic government would be established in the territory, Hamas would disarm and Israeli troops would withdraw. The reconstruction of Gaza would begin.
But critics have suggested Netanyahu could seek to delay the process of the plan and instead push for Hamas to disarm before Israeli troops withdraw. He has been accused of not wanting to engage seriously with the issue of a political future for Palestinians.
Hamas officials have said a full disarmament should take place alongside progress towards an independent Palestinian state.
Asked if he was concerned Israel was not moving fast enough to phase two of the plan, Trump said it had “lived up to the plan.”
“I’m not concerned about anything that Israel’s doing, I’m concerned about what other people are doing or maybe aren’t going,” he added.
Meanwhile, Trump also said the U.S. could support another major strike on Iran were it to resume building its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons programs.
In response to Trump’s threat, Iran’s supreme leader’s top political adviser, Ali Shamkhani, said on X that any aggression towards Iran would be met with an “immediate harsh response.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared his country was in a “total war” with the U.S., Israel and Europe, just as Tehran looks to rebuild its nuclear capabilities and strengthen ties with Hamas. Pezeshkian made the bold statement in an interview published in state media Saturday.
“In my opinion, we are at total war with the United States, Israel and Europe. They want to bring our country to its knees,” Pezeshkian said.
“This war is worse than the one launched against us by Iraq. On closer inspection, it is far more complex and difficult,” he said, in reference to the 1980-88 war with Iran’s western neighbor.
The claim comes amid new UN sanctions on Iran – orchestrated by France, Britain and Germany – which followed the 12-Day War with Israel in June, when Israel, with U.S. assistance, sought to obliterate the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities.
Israel, as Netanyahu then told Trump in Mar-a-Lago, claims Iran is repairing its air defense systems and rebuilding its ballistic missile program, both of which were destroyed by airstrikes during the war.
But then Iran was hit by waves of protests this week which spread to universities in several cities on Tuesday, amid the worsening economic situation in the country, with students chanting for freedom and clashing with the security forces near some campuses.
The protests started off with merchants frustrated by sky-high inflation and the collapse of the national currency, which hit a record low over the weekend.
How Iran’s leaders respond over the coming days and weeks is critical. Wednesday, there were chants of “Death to Khamenei” (the Supreme Leader). As of week’s end, authorities said at least seven protesters and security forces had been killed.
President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday said the Iranian government urgently needed to address people’s concerns.
“According to God’s Quran, if we do not solve people’s problems, we will have a place in hell,” he said in an interview with a local television station during a visit to southwestern Iran.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Remember the predictions from so many experts that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would cause Iranians to rally behind their regime? You can junk that conventional wisdom. As 2026 dawns, the Iranian people are marching in protest only months after the Israel-U.S. attack.
“The protests began among shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, but they have spread to other cities and groups. Students in particular have joined, with support from truckers and bus drivers. Economic grievances are in the forefront amid 42% inflation, a currency that has lost 40% of its value against the dollar since the June war, and even a lack of water and reliable energy.
“Economic protests can easily turn political, and the unrest is dangerous to the regime because deprivation is widespread. ‘Death to the dictator,’ students chanted in the country’s northwest….
“The regime has typically responded to protests with beatings, arrests, torture and shootings. But this time its initial response was more cautious, as if it realized the danger of a broad anti-government uprising.
“The regime sacked the central-bank chief as the fall guy for inflation, and it has rolled out ‘reformist’ President Masoud Pezeshkian with a rare offer of dialogue. Iranians know he holds little real power, and the unpopular Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has remained quiet behind the scenes.
“But as protests spread, repression has returned, with arrests and even some live fire. This could escalate if the protests get larger and more threatening….
“All of which is an opportunity for the U.S. to show its support for the Iranian people. In 2009 Barack Obama made the mistake of staying mute as the regime crushed protesters because he wanted a nuclear deal with the Ayatollah.
“Mr. Trump may be tempted by the same mirage, but if Iran wanted a deal it could have returned to the negotiating table after the war. Instead it sill insists on domestic enrichment of nuclear fuel, and it is fast rebuilding ballistic missile stockpiles that could hit Israel or U.S. bases….
“Most important is to keep the economic pressure on the regime… Iran has been able to evade sanctions enough that its oil exports are at new highs – two million barrels a day, 20 times the U.S. target. This mocks Mr. Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign.
“None of this means the regime is in danger of immediate collapse, though dictatorships often look stable until the moment their rule ends. The Ayatollah depends on oil revenue to keep his commanders loyal and troops’ rifles aimed at their own people. If the money stops flowing, the loyalties of the regime enforcers may change.”
Early Friday morning, 2:58 AM, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“If Iran shots (sic) and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Venezuela: A U.S. military strike on Monday killed two more people accused by the Trump administration of trafficking narcotics in the eastern Pacific, Pentagon officials said, bringing the death toll in the U.S. campaign to at least 107 in 30 strikes.
President Trump on Monday said the U.S. also struck a facility inside Venezuela, in what would be a significant escalation in its campaign against alleged drug trafficking operations there.
“There was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs,” Trump told reporters, confirming comments from last week.
Trump’s reference to an attack within Venezuela would mark the first time the U.S. has announced a land strike in the country. The administration has raised pressure on the Maduro government between bombing the boats and implementing a blockade to disrupt the country’s oil exports.
CNN, citing unnamed sources, reported Monday night that earlier this month the CIA carried out a drone attack on a dock along the Venezuelan coast that U.S. authorities believe was tied to the gang Tren de Aragua. There were no casualties, the sources told the network.
Wednesday, the U.S. said it struck five more alleged drug-smuggling boats over two days, killing a total of eight people while others jumped overboard and may have survived.
U.S. Southern Command did not reveal where the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday occurred.
So now we’re talking 35 known boat strikes and at least 115 killed.
Thursday, President Nicolas Maduro said in an interview with Venezuelan state TV that he was open to talks with the U.S. on drug trafficking and oil. But he evaded a question on whether there had been a U.S. attack on a Venezuelan dock facility.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. 25% of independents approve (Dec. 1-15).
Rasmussen: 44% approve, 54% disapprove (Dec. 31).
An Economist/YouGov poll released Tuesday has Trump’s approval rating at 39%, 56% disapproval, with 89% of Republicans rating him favorably and 9% unfavorably.
—Sens. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.) hold fundamentally opposed political views but are united in turning up the heat on artificial intelligence.
On Sunday, both called out Big Tech and Congress for not doing enough to protect Americans from the risks of what Sanders called “the most consequential technology of our lifetime.”
Sanders came down hard on Big Tech’s biggest names, telling CNN’s State of the Union that the wealthiest are pushing AI “to get richer and more powerful.”
“What is their motive? You think they’re staying up nights worrying…? They are not,” Sanders said.
AI’s impact on the labor force and America’s kids are two other issues for Sanders.
Elon Musk has been clear that AI will cost jobs. Right now, AI can replace almost 12% of American jobs, according to a survey released last month by MIT.
“If there are no jobs and humans won’t be needed for most things, how do people get an income to feed their families, to get healthcare or to pay the rent? There’s not been one serious word of discussion in the Congress about that reality,” Sanders said.
Britt, a mother of two teenagers, told host Jake Tapper that there are many parents like her worried about AI, particularly on social media. In a survey released in early December, the Pew Research Institute found that 64% of U.S. teens use chatbots and a third use them every day.
Both senators want members of Congress to stop dragging their feet on AI. Britt is co-sponsoring a measure to protect minors from chatbots and Sanders called for an in-depth study of AI’s impact on American’s mental health.
“I have met with a number of parents who have told me devastating stories about their children where chatbots ultimately…had isolated them from their parents, had talked to them about suicide,” Britt said.
Sanders is worried about the very foundation of the country: “These guys have unbelievable wealth, unbelievable power. What does that mean for the future of democracy?” Britt is disappointed in Washington: “Looking at what’s happening on these machines and these devices, we have got to get better and be better.”
–The United States on Monday announced a $2 billion pledge for UN humanitarian aid as the Trump administration continues to slash U.S. foreign assistance and warns UN agencies to “adapt, shrink or die” in a time of new financial realities.
The money is a small fraction of what the U.S. has contributed in the past but reflects what the White House believes is a generous amount that will maintain the United States’ status as the world’s largest humanitarian donor. The pledge creates an umbrella fund from which money will be doled out to individual agencies and priorities, a key part of U.S. demands for drastic changes across the world body.
Past U.S. aid has run as high as $17 billion annually in recent years, according to UN data. Critics say the Western aid cutbacks have been shortsighted, driven millions toward hunger, displacement or disease, and harmed U.S. soft power around the world.
Personally, I’m a big ‘soft power is beneficial’ guy.
—President Trump urged the Justice Department to release the names of any Democrats in the Epstein files, saying the agency should “embarrass them,” even as he questioned the amount of time being spent on the issue.
Trump signed legislation Nov. 19 requiring the release of the federal government’s records related to Jeffrey Epstein. The legislation set a 30-day timeline for the records to be released, and the DOJ began making them public Dec. 19. Hundreds of thousands of documents have been made available, but many more have yet to come out.
Then on Dec. 24, the Justice Department said that the FBI and federal prosecutors found more than a million additional Epstein-related documents and that it would take weeks to review them.
But Trump took aim at Democrats and encouraged the Justice Department to out those linked to Epstein.
“Now 1,000,000 more pages on Epstein are found,” Trump posted on Truth Social Dec. 26. “DOJ is being forced to spend all of its time on this Democrat inspired Hoax. When do they say NO MORE, and work on Election Fraud etc. The Dems are the ones who worked with Epstein, not the Republicans. Release all of their names, embarrass them, and get back to helping our Country! The Radical Left doesn’t want people talking about TRUMP & REPUBLICAN SUCCESS, only a long ago dead Jeffrey Epstein – Just another Witch Hunt!!!”
And this post the same day:
“Merry Christmas to all, including the many Sleazebags who loved Jeffrey Epstein, gave him bundles of money, went to his Island, attended his parties, and thought he was the greatest guy on earth, only to ‘drop him like a dog’ when things got too HOT, falsely claimed they had nothing to do with him, didn’t know him, said he was a disgusting person, and then blame, of course, President Donald J. Trump, who was actually the only one who did drop Epstein, and long before it became fashionable to do so. When their names get brought out in the ongoing Radical Left Witch Hunt (plus one lowlife ‘Republican,’ Massie!), and it is revealed that they are Democrats all, there will be a lot of explaining to do, much like there was when it was made public that the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax was a fictitious story – a total Scam – and had noting to do with ‘TRUMP.’ The Failing New York Times, among many others, was forced to apologize for their bad and faulty Election ‘Reporting,’ even to the point of losing many subscribers due to their highly inaccurate (FAKE!) coverage. Now the same losers are at it again, only this time so many of their friends, mostly innocent, will be badly hurt and reputationally tarnished. But sadly, that’s the way it is in the World of Corrupt Democrat Politics!!! Enjoy what may be your last Merry Christmas! President Donald J. Trump”
Eegads.
Tuesday, we learned the Justice Department is seeking to enlist about 400 lawyers to review roughly 5.2 million pages of Epstein files documents, a more precise and seemingly much larger figure than just a week before.
—A fraud scandal plaguing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) has drawn the ire of many Republicans and the Trump administration. The state and its governor are facing national backlash following a viral video that made headlines showing a day care facility that appeared inactive despite receiving significant funding.
But the state has been investigating the state’s safety net programs for years, and local media has covered it extensively. The investigations began with a $300 million pandemic food fraud scheme at the nonprofit Feeding Our Future, for which 57 defendants in Minnesota have been convicted. Prosecutors said the organization was at the center of the country’s largest Covid-19-related fraud scam, when defendants exploited a state-run, federally funded program meant to provide food for children.
A federal prosecutor alleged earlier this month that half or more of the roughly $18 billion in federal funds that supported 14 programs in Minnesota since 2018 may have been stolen. Most of the defendants in the child nutrition, housing services and autism program schemes are Somali Americans, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for Minnesota.
On Monday, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said she sent agents door to door at suspected fraud sites as part of the broader investigation launched earlier this month.
The viral video, released last Friday by independent journalist Nick Shirley, renewed scrutiny of the governor’s handling of widespread fraud occurring in some state-run programs.
Gov. Walz is being blamed for falling to sufficiently crack down on the issue, while a Walz spokesperson said they have “hired an outside firm to audit payments to high-risk programs, shut down the Housing Stabilization Services program entirely, announced a new statewide program integrity director, and supported criminal prosecutions.”
Tuesday, the Trump administration announced it is freezing childcare funds to Minnesota and demanding an audit of fraud schemes involving government programs.
Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services Jim O’Neill said on X that the move is in response to “blatant fraud that appears to be rampant in Minnesota and across the country.”
—President Trump on Truth Social, Wednesday:
“We are removing the National Guard from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland, despite the fact that CRIME has been greatly reduced by having these great Patriots in those cities, and ONLY by that fact. Portland, Los Angeles, and Chicago were GONE if it weren’t for the Federal Government stepping in. We will come back, perhaps in a much different and stronger form, when crime begins to soar again – Only a question of time! It is hard to believe that these Democrat Mayors and Governors, all of whom are greatly incompetent, would want us to leave, especially considering the great progress that has been made??? President DJT.”
—President Trump this morning on Truth Social, following a Wall Street Journal interview that dealt with the topic of his health, such as the blemish on his hand, as well as his drifting off at cabinet meetings and public appearances:
“The White House Doctors have just reported that I am in ‘PERFECT HEALTH,’ and that I ‘ACED’ (Meaning, was correct on 100% of the questions asked!), for the third straight time, my Cognitive Examination, something which no other President, or previous Vice President, was willing to take. P.S., I strongly believe that anyone running for President, or Vice President, should be mandatorily forced to take a strong, meaningful, and proven Cognitive Examination. Our great Country cannot be run by ‘STUPID’ or INCOMPETENT PEOPLE! President DJT”
Trump told the Journal the blemishes on his hand are the result of his taking too much aspirin. I looked up the dose he said he was taking, however, and I was surprised. [It’s the same dosage contained in my Alka-Seltzer Plus Cold Medicine, or generic alternatives…and I have sworn by this since Day One of StocksandNews whenever I start to get a scratchy throat. Just to be totally truthful. But now I’ll be looking at the back of my hands more closely! I’ve told my doctor what I’m doing numerous times, and he says, “Well, it’s just aspirin.”]
–Our hearts go out to the victims and their families of the horrific tragedy in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, where 40 people were killed and 119 injured, many gravely, after fire ripped through a bar’s New Year celebration in the Alpine resort before 2:00 a.m.
The Le Constellation bar was packed with partygoers and authorities announced today that a probable cause was sparklers atop Champagne bottles that got too close to the ceiling, touching off the blaze that just exploded in intensity (a flashover or backdraft), collapsing the wooden ceiling. It was a basement nightclub with a narrow flight of stairs and narrow door.
—Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as the next Mayor of New York City and in his inaugural speech he vowed to “govern as a democratic socialist” and to govern “audaciously.”
Boy, is this guy going to be under the microscope. To many of us, it will be all about the crime data, as much as anything.
—Flu is surging across the United States amid all the travel and congestion in airport terminals, a bad combination.
The state of New York is among those most heavily hit. For the week ending Dec. 20, the state reported its highest number of positive flu cases (71,123) ever recorded in a single week, according to the New York State Department of Health. That represented an increase of 38% over the previous week, the department said.
The CDC’s weekly data says the flu has sickened an estimated 7.5 million across the country, with about 81,000 hospitalized and 3,100 deaths thus far, including eight children. That reflected a sharp increase from the week prior, in which the CDC estimated about 4.6 million cases, 49,000 hospitalizations and 1,900 deaths.
—Three hikers, including a 19-year-old who fell approximately 500 feet, were found dead on Mt. Baldy, a looming snow-capped mountain known to be one of the most dangerous to climb in Southern California.
I bring this up because I had no idea, and I assume some of you didn’t know either, that Mt. Baldy, rising 10,064 feet in the San Gabriel Mountains, has become one of the deadliest peaks in the United States.
At least 14 people have died on the mountain since 2020, including British actor Julian Sands in January 2023, although his remains were not found until five months later. More than 100 have been rescued from the mountain since 2020.
Proximity to Los Angeles means Mt. Baldy attracts experienced and inexperienced climbers, and authorities urged people to stay off the mountain, especially during such unpredictable winter weather.
—George F. Will / Washington Post
“Farewell to a year that brought the Cracker Barrel brouhaha, the DOGE dud and the Gulf of America.
“What Samuel Johnson said of Milton’s ‘Paradise Lost’ can be said of 2025: No one ever wished it longer. As this year slinks offstage, remember some memorable moments:
“Cracker Barrel stumbled into crisis when Americans who have too much spare time became enraged because the restaurant chain deleted from its logo an elderly man in overalls…. After 32 years at Ford Motor Co., an executive retired with 2,229 examples of colleagues’ verbal pratfalls, including: ‘He’s going to be so happy he’ll be like a canary in a coal mine.’
“To prepare young Oklahomans for the demands of a high-tech future, the state’s board of education mandated instruction about ‘discrepancies’ in the 2020 presidential election. Intellectuals really are the last to learn things: Harvard Law School thought the Magna Carta it bought 79 years ago for $27.50 was one of many later reproductions. Now British researchers think it might be one reissued in 1300.
“In a mailing to its 3 million members, the National Education Association, America’s largest union of K-12 teachers, linked to an article explaining that Hitler was ‘pushed into the genocide option’ because European Jews refused his offer to send them elsewhere….
“The U.S. president – he is such a cut-up – posted an AI-concocted video of himself as a fighter pilot wearing a gold (of course!) crown and dropping excrement on ‘No Kings’ protesters. Explaining his commutation of the prison sentence of the fraudulently elected ex-congressman George Santos, the president said Santos ‘had the Courage, Conviction, and Intelligence to ALWAYS VOTE REPUBLICAN.’ So there….
“A taxpayer-funded Chicago nonprofit’s ‘Subversion Summer Camp’ taught ‘queer magic’ for resisting Trump.
“Paloentologists in New Mexico found evidence that before a six-mile-wide space rock smacked Earth 66 million years ago, dinosaurs were flourishing. Post-rock, all was desolation, but out of this came, eventually, human beings. Was this progress? Not on the evidence of 2025.”
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4338…$4332 12/31…Silver $72.00…$71.20* 12/31
Oil $57.30…$57.41 12/31
*You might have a different figure, just depends on the contract you’re looking at.
Bitcoin: $89,706 [4:00 PM ET, Friday] …$87,564 12/31
Regular Gas: $2.83; Diesel: $3.55 [$3.06 – $3.50 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 12/29-1/2
Dow Jones -0.7% [48382]
S&P 500 -1.0% [6858]
S&P MidCap -0.1%
Russell 2000 -1.1%
Nasdaq -1.5% [23235]
Returns for the Year, 2025:
Dow Jones +13.0%
S&P 500 +16.4%
S&P MidCap…I’ll fill in later…I blew it New Year’s Eve!
Russell 2000 +11.3%
Nasdaq +20.4%
Bulls 55.6
Bears 18.5
Hang in there. Here’s to 2026!
I greatly appreciate those who have donated to the site in the past year or two. If you haven’t given as yet but are a regular reader, please consider doing so. Every little bit helps.
Brian Trumbore
